Apr 27th – May 3rd +$24,727.85

Double wow, after having the worst week in my betting history last week, this week surpasses all my expectations and then some. With $90,000 bet over the week and a profit of $24,727, that’s a phenomenal return on investment of 27%. The star performers this week were MLB and ATP Tennis, with a helping hand from Formbet.

MLB continues it’s early season form with over $11,000 profit this week with both H2H and Line betting contributing. Tennis made an amazing $12,900 with most of that coming last night in the ATP. Wins for Baggy (1.54), Llodra (2.25), Malisse (2.72), Stakhovsky (5.08) and De Bakker (2.88) making for one great night. I must admit I turned of my livescore feed when Stak was 0-4 down in the 3rd set tie breaker. I don’t think I’ll ever learn that watching my bets only results in shortening my life. I mentioned in an earlier post that I would be happy to claw back all my Australian open losses by the end of the season, instead it only took 4 months to get it back and then some. Here’s hoping this is the turning point for the model and it can return to its consistent good runs for the last 8 years. After the Formbet disaster of last week, it redeemed itself with a $7,800 profit. It is still in negative for the year and the variance each night is very large, I need to take a good look at my staking levels and may lower them in the coming weeks.

AFL had another losing week with another heartbreak result in the Sydney game. With $1,900 on the over 158.5 the match ended at 158, losing that bet by just half a point, in the other big totals bet, I again lost by only a few points. I never worry about the AFL model, it really is the only one I have complete confidence in. Only a few Soccer bets placed this week. I have decided to end soccer until the new season starts, something I should have done a month ago which would off saved me $15,000. A new rule when following the soccer model is not to bet the first month or final 6 weeks. Still ended the year with a $5,680 profit at 1.2% POT. Soccer was by far the most time consuming sport to bet and with such a small return I’ll have to think about following again next season.

NRL continues to disappoint, I think I’m following the model mostly to have a bet on the weekend as I do watch a few NRL games. I should really stop right now, but will give it 1 more week. Golf had 10 bets for 10 losses and -$1,000. FB Elite also had the one losing bet this week.

I’ve said this many times before, I just need to learn to deal with the variance associated with betting at these levels, with an average bet size of around $500, a $10,000 profit or loss week is to be expected. These last two weeks are outliers, but also to be expected. We would all happily give up a bit of profit to have a nice steady upward curve of profit, but sadly that isn’t the way this game works. Lately my profit graph has mimicked what my heart rate would off looked liked watching last nights tennis.

Finally this week an extra $4,000 profit that won’t be added to the totals as it was not a model bet. Centrebet had an offer on Darren Lockyer to be first try scorer at $41. Normally he would be around $10-$15. I managed to get $100 on the bet and he managed to get up and score first. Thank you Centrebet. So in reality my betting resulted in $28.7k profit this week. WOW

Total profit for the week was $24,727.85

Baseball $260,097.01 $12,796.03 4.9%
Week profit/loss: 5544.39

Baseball Line $312,855.00 $29,256.55 9.4%
Week profit/loss: 5648.99

AFL $38,367.00 $2,394.41 6.2%
Week profit/loss: -233.05

AFL line $56,325.00 $14,580.13 25.9%
Week profit/loss: -937.02

AFL Totals $35,165.00 $2,417.00 6.9%
Week profit/loss: -2880

Soccer H2H $157,911.00 $5,491.83 3.5%
Week profit/loss: 365

Over Soccer $95,159.00 $3,601.79 3.8%
Week profit/loss: 0

Under Soccer $204,993.00 $(3,413.25) -1.7%
Week profit/loss: -1500

Tennis – ATP $250,487.00 $6,308.81 2.5%
Week profit/loss: 11308.05

WTA – Tennis $228,890.00 $(341.26) -0.1%
Week profit/loss: 1560.49

NRL $17,213.00 $(6,033.77) -35.1%
Week profit/loss: -747

NHL – Totals $169,435.00 $(2,603.57) -1.5%
Week profit/loss: 0

Golf $11,877.00 $(5,985.25) -50.4%
Week profit/loss: -1000

FB Elite $6,250.00 $(467.95) -7.5%
Week profit/loss: -200

Formbet $32,236.00 $(2,362.00) -7.3%
Week profit/loss: 7798

Total bet amount: $2,390,930.37
Profit/Loss: $36,481.65
POT: 1.5%

Bets Placed: 6,257
Won: 3,532
Lost: 3,463
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 225
Winning %: 41.4%

Profit per day: 36,481.65 / 307= $118.83

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  • JLo

    haha fantastic great work mate

  • Adam

    Brilliant Steve – really pleased to see that result.

    I think you probably are betting too much on formbet. The variance associated with horse racing must be many many times more than that associated with soccer, tennis, rugby etc. You could go on a 1000 bet losing run with a winning system quite easily.

    Strangely I have found the soccer massively profitable recently. Some massive juicy prices on the back of the market incorrectly overpricing teams that “need” to win, or teams with “nothing to play for”. I just don’t believe that pro footballers in this day and age stop trying, there’s too many incentives for them to still give it 100%, like better contracts and better clubs picking them up, etc.

  • Adam

    Are you just running the autobot on formbet Steve? Or doing the bets manually at BOG?

  • admin

    yeah, just the autobot. I found it was a lot more effort to place at BOG and betfair prices were near or better.

  • aikogreenman

    Good commentary ! I am thankful for the details , Does anyone know where my assistant can get access to a blank Agreement to Manage and Lease Real Estate document to type on ?