Apr 6th – Apr 12th

$2.13 million bet in 286 days. That’s an average of $7,450 bet per day and $126 profit per day at 1.7% POT. Sadly this last $1.1 million has resulted in a loss of $9,615. A few things can account for the loss. Firstly an $11,000 loss is directly attributed to the mens tennis model having an error during the Australian open. Since then the model has made a bit of those losses back but not all of them. Still many weeks left in the Tennis season and I still hope to see a nice gain at the end of the year. Another $12,800 loss was due to me following free tipsters, a silly mistake which I wont be making again. So almost 24k lost due to mistakes which were half mine. The next $1 million bet will concentrate on consolidating my current portfolio of models and I will think long and hard before adding anything new. My goal is to be betting on average $10,000 a day and making between 2-5% ROI. This should see a yearly profit of between $73,000 and $182,500. Any number between those figures would be more then satisfactory. A graph of the profits can be seen at the end of this post.

Onto this past week.

A whole month of profit, albeit a very small one this week. At one stage the total profit was at $44,000 and with a good weekend of AFL I thought it would hit the highest ever profit. But the amazing run of AFL had to end some time and it was this week. But a bad week in AFL equlas a loss of $900. Baseball also had a small loss for the week. Soccer continues its dismal end of season form, If only I had taken my own advice and stopped betting it weeks ago, I would be in the high $40k profit area. As mentioned, this first year is all about learning things and getting as much data as possible, so I will see out the season. Tennis again had a terrible week with $5,200 lost. These changes of surface and betting on players who are not confident on the different surface has been very poor. Hoping for a few major upsets this week. NRL had it’s first winning week, and NHL also had a winning week in its final week before play-offs. FB Elite managed to string some wins together in the soccer which was a welcome bonus.

I mentioned last week that I had little doubt that Formbet would return to profit by the end of this month. It beat that by almost 20 days. A truly incredible run (including a $2800 win I missed), the week showed a total profit of $7,700. I’m still yet to have a week where everything clicks and all the models perform extremely well, but when that week comes, it will give a massive boost to my profits and my confidence.

Total profit for the week was $1,079.13

Baseball $221,770.01 $11,390.87 5.1%
Week profit/loss: 819.81

Baseball Line $271,135.00 $21,774.76 8.0%
Week profit/loss: -1425.26

AFL $31,710.00 $6,124.71 19.3%
Week profit/loss: -2117.60

AFL line $44,946.00 $12,595.29 28.0%
Week profit/loss: 12.08

AFL Totals $18,793.00 $3,547.20 18.9%
Week profit/loss: 1207

Soccer H2H $152,789.00 $7,275.13 4.8%
Week profit/loss: -1222.13

Over Soccer $92,059.00 $3,470.79 3.8%
Week profit/loss: 314.95

Under Soccer $193,998.00 $(1,430.73) -0.7%
Week profit/loss: -2240.32

Tennis – ATP $217,796.00 $(6,332.97) -2.9%
Week profit/loss: -1315.45

WTA – Tennis $184,353.00 $1,820.75 1.0%
Week profit/loss: -3900.19

NRL $13,587.00 $(4,464.79) -32.9%
Week profit/loss: 940

NHL – Totals $163,865.00 $(595.31) -0.4%
Week profit/loss: 1892.44

Horse Racing $86,047.00 $88.40 0.1%
Week profit/loss: 3425

Golf $8,123.00 $(2,231.25) -27.5%
Week profit/loss: -700

TOP3 $41,001.00 $7,289.00 17.8%
Week profit/loss: 5464

Value $10,500.00 $3,204.00 30.5%
Week profit/loss: 475

FB Elite $5,650.00 $(295.95) -5.2%
Week profit/loss: 449.80

Yellow&Green $2,800.00 $(1,600.00) -57.1%
Week profit/loss: -1000

Stats
Total bet amount: $2,130,984.37
Profit/Loss: $36,176.65
POT: 1.7%

Bets Placed: 5,764
Won: 2,295
Lost: 3,265
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 202
Winning %: 41.3%

Profit per day: 36,176.65 / 286= $126.49

Profit/Loss Graph:
graphapr
Click on graph for large view

11. April 2011 by admin
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