April 22nd – April 28th -$35,800.11

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  • Wow, pretty hard core losses, but you seem to have a good attitude towards them. You make a valid point about being in the right time zone, some sports you just have to be on hand to trade them. What interests me about you is you seem to have really diversified your portfolio, would you say that it’s necessary in order to trade in the volumes you do?

    I’m just wondering why in times of trouble you don’t just revert back to your “rock” and trade only in the AFL?

    Also don’t knock the soccer! 🙂 I trade under 2.5 goals with a pretty high strike rate, though I’m a little minnow so don’t know if the markets I trade can support such high volumes.

    Anyway I’m glad I’ve come across your blog, keep up the good work!

  • Kizo

    Steve knows I’ve been following his blog for a while and these losses are not going to discourage me to do so further. My opinion is that Steve diversifies too much. It simply isn’t possible to obtain so many winning tipsters, especially not in soccer. Right now, I am following very few besides my own bets. Joseph Buchdahl’s excel tool is excellent in determining if anyone’s record is a product of pure luck or of a real skill. In my experience, you need 200 bets max to get a sample of what a tipster is capable of doing and how he handles losing runs. Streamline your portfolio, Steve, and it’s all going to be good. 😉

  • Kizo, we have spoken before and you are also a member of pretty much all the soccer tipsters I also follow?

    I do agree that it seems there are no good long term soccer tipsters. It has taken me a long time (I’m slow at the best of times) to get that through my pretty thick skull.

    But diversification IS KEY. Just like when investing in anything. A simple comparison to the market. We can say Sportpunter is like stocks. Over the long term they will give the highest possible return, but fluctuations can be pretty crazy. A tipster like GOWI will produce from -2 to +2% each year, so he is more like CD’s or bank interest rates. The football ones are more like investing in startups, massive failure rate, but if you hit that one unicorn it will dwarf all the other investments.

    In the investing world, you have a percentage in each depending on your age and risk attitude. The same should happen in your betting portfolio. I like a fair bit of risk (and can handle it) so had it heavily weighted towards the startups (soccer tipsters). Sadly I didn’t find that one great tipster that would cover the losses from the others.

    Everyone is different and in hindsight we are all geniuses. I don’t remember anyone telling me this when the soccer was up $80,000 earlier in the year. It seems it is much easier to come to conclusions when you have the final result.

    In saying that, I will be restructuring my portfolio to be a little less volatile (I hope) next season. I will be giving up a fair bit of potential upside but also saving myself from large potential downside.

    As I keep saying, gambling is not an easy thing, first you have to find those rare tipster who can make a profit (1 in 100,000 or more), you have to be able to stick to a plan through the bad times, you have to deal with bookmakers closing accounts down and a heap of other issues. If it was easy than we would see more than just me blogging for longer than 6 months.

  • Kizo

    I took up only football investor and am now regretting it, sadly. I think I did try to warn you that it is not possible to find more than five decent, not great, soccer tipsters. It is an efficient market because everyone’s involved. Of course I would diversify if I could find so many good tipsters, but it’s not the case. For example, I think you vastly overrate sportpunter (i know he’s reading this, so no offence mate, really), especially compared to subscription he asks for. I would take only few of his models, if any since he is a stats tipster. I can only repeat myself – good tipster is an informed tipster.

  • I can only go off my own results and from those, no one comes close to Sportpunter returns over such a long time frame. Also, Jonno rarely reads this blog, he is too busy golfing most of the time, so feel free to say what you want about him as he won’t read it.

    Also remember you don’t have to do better than breaking even and still make a very nice profit on turnover.

  • Kizo

    Sure, but that is the hardest thing, isn’t it? 🙂

  • Rahul Dhawan

    Hey Steve I have seen you mention on twitter a couple of horse racing services which you follow e.g. trial spy but I never see you mention there performance in your blog posts. Just wondering what the reason for this is?

  • lack of time. If this blog made me money, I would happily spend all day writing articles and reviewing services. Until that day, this site is very low down on my list of important things.

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