April 8th – April 14th -$12,053.80

[dropcap]C[/dropcap]losing in on $6 million bet in year 5 and it’s looking like one of those years. A lot of stress, worry and some joy that at the end of the day produces nothing but a waste of time and energy. This week was like many others, giving me hope that things were on the rise with me sitting on $40,000 profit on Saturday night and than taking it all away when I woke up to another horror soccer morning. As I slept, $22,000 was recouped by the bookies. More was given back on Sunday night for one of the worst Soccer weekends yet. Every time I say this I get emails saying, just give up Soccer and follow Sportpunter. I always reply that you need to be diversified, Soccer this season has accounted for 50% of my turnover and $31,600 profit at 1.1% ROI. So even though the swings have been massive, it has kept me in the game. But after 5 years and a negative return, we will see a whole new portfolio in regards to Football next season.

Onto this weeks results and AFL has gotten off to its traditionally awesome start. Adding $13,300 profit this week. The improved limits at Pinnacle seems to have had an impact on the Aussie books as they seem more willing to accept bets now and my limits at some of the corporates have been increased for the first time ever. I believe Pinnacle is having an impact on the turnover for these aussie corporates, and as more and more people learn of the existence of Pinnacle sports, less and less will be bet at the poorer odds that these corporates set. Why bother betting with a bookmaker who not only offers worse odds, but will also close your account if you win? The more educated punters get, the better it is for all of us. The NHL regular season came to an end this week with a $3,100 loss. We had some big swings this season, but ending the regular season with a 3.2% ROI is damn good in my book. The Rugby had a poor week with a $2,800 loss and the NRL did OK with $1,400 added to the bank. We also welcomed back the MLB season with $4,850 profit. Another winning week for Sportpunter and a massive return for Dailyprofit members which I will talk about in a post on Thursday.

ClubGowi had a better week, adding $3,800 profit, but Jason Kelly did poorly at the Masters with a $1,050 loss.

Onto the Soccer and what a week. Football Elite made a tiny $300 profit and Football Value made $1,500, but that was the end of any profit. The Football Analyst lost a colossal $18,200. The incredible thing is that I am still in profit for this years TFA portfolio. But it really feels like a lottery, and I know most members are sitting on a big loss. Football Investor has been on a poor run and lost a further $8,450 this week. The question if stats based models perform worse at the end of the season needs to be asked. Looking at the graphs Graeme posted on twitter last night, it seems that his models do very poorly at the end of the season. Winabobatoo also had a crap week and lost $3,300. So a combined Soccer tipster loss of $28,150.

Not the worst losing week and there were a number of positives. The AFL is once again looking good and the other SP models continue to contribute. My only concern at the moment is the limits on MLB. They are set very low and I hope Pinnacle up their limits soon. We start again today with another big midweek soccer night. Are there any scarier two words at the moment.. SOCCER & MIDWEEK… very scary.

Total Loss for the week was $12,053.80

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Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $5,970,237.93
Profit/Loss: $14,359.51
POT: 0.24%
Bets Placed: 8480
Won: 2759
Lost: 3952
Half Payout: 58
Refunded: 1711
Winning %: 41.1%
Total profit per day: $361,884.35 / 1749 = $206.90
Total Turnover: $20,312,981.30
Total ROI: 1.78%

AFL H2H – SP $70,386.00 $18,707.03 26.6%
week profit/loss: 5105.03

AFL Line – SP $331,616.00 $(20,654.57) -6.2%
week profit/loss: 8166.50

NHL Totals $518,212.00 $16,573.43 3.2%
week profit/loss: -3091.69

Rugby SP $51,475.00 $3,049.90 5.9%
week profit/loss: -2762

NRL SP $69,893.00 $1,544.03 2.2%
week profit/loss: 1429.16

SP MLB $301,576.00 $15,415.60 5.1%
week profit/loss: 4865.82

ClubGowi $624,763.00 $5,907.87 0.9%
week profit/loss: 3808

GOWI $19,776.00 $3,322.28 16.8%
week profit/loss: 0

Jason Kelly Golf $13,241.93 $(7,008.53) -52.9%
week profit/loss: -1050

Betswot $9,573.00 $(7,818.00) -81.7%
week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $212,761.00 $2,616.38 1.2%
week profit/loss: 317.50

Football Value $58,000.00 $(4,715.00) -8.1%
week profit/loss: 1500

TFA 21 $368,284.00 $(359.60) -0.1%
week profit/loss: -6614.50

TFA 41 $357,376.00 $(9,691.00) -2.7%
week profit/loss: -5414

6-21-31 $205,057.00 $13,678.72 6.7%
week profit/loss: -3114.50

D1-D6 $129,700.00 $2,950.00 2.3%
week profit/loss: 860

E1-E6 $122,540.00 $22,462.40 18.3%
week profit/loss: -3905

Mike Lindley $87,264.00 $(4,123.00) -4.7%
week profit/loss: -569

WINABOBATOO $346,655.00 $(5,176.88) -1.5%
week profit/loss: -2735.50

FBI combo $139,500.00 $9,791.20 7.0%
week profit/loss: -4000

FBI Euro $192,642.00 $5,577.20 2.9%
week profit/loss: -4442

Odds pushed out $44,750.00 $6,245.00 14.0%
week profit/loss: -500

Personal $61,625.00 $(12,363.35) -20.1%
week profit/loss: 92.41

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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  • Mariano

    Did you take all GOWI bets ? I guess you skipped most of the golf ones, otherwise that profit wouldn’t be there.

  • I bet only when I can match odds or get very close. Which means only betting on a small percentage of total bets.

  • Mariano

    Well, you were lucky then.
    I have a few more months of subscription to this service but after 2 years I think I’m done with it. Unfortunately it’s not what it used to be and I’m tired of taking the same bets on the same teams week after week.

  • There is potential for some big wins. I missed the Wolfsburg pick when i was in the states, that would be a massive win. Middlesborough also are still in with a chance.
    I believe his day to day betting is rubbish, but the longterm stuff (while impossible to get the odds) offers some value.

  • Mariano

    Yes, there are some good, like McIlroy last year, Benfica in Europa League two years in a row (although they lost the final, but they were good to do some trading) and the Championship bets you mentioned, but still overall I’m not sure if they are profitable and odds are definitely hard to get for the kind of staking he recommends (2-3 units).
    There are many this season in Premier League, League One and League Two that have been terrible and lost for a long time. This year’s golf bet doesn’t look good for now (I skipped it), in the World Cup I skipped almost all of them and they were rubbish (huge stakes on Brazil to win it for example).
    Wolfsburg would be good…the problem is that he’s betting on them every now and then despite the odds and he’s losing some of the potential profit he might get on it if they win Europa League!

  • wah

    hmm
    Im not sure about Gowie for two reasons firstly he seems to be changing things a lot lately so we are only really guessing about the futrue. But mostly because any records i have of my results previously are no longer of any relevance as i was able to access BV Marathon Lad etc which made getting odds possible (sort of) and this problem is not his but mine i guess and goes for almost every tipster ive followed (thats why i like the strait recording to pinnacle odds from a tipster you can then say at those odds they make 1%roi or whatever it may be so all i have to do is match or beat those and ill make at least that). The odds he posts are most certainly available when he posts them but well you know the rest.

    I dont mind the idea of backing certain teams over again as often it takes the market a long while to catch on eg port adelaide to win the last quarter (gold mine for 1.5 seasons and i would have predicted with 2 ruckmen the opposite this seaon) adelaide to loose last half etc(and again with more players running through the middfield opposite this season) but i do have some issues with middlesborough -1.25 etc (just to get the 2$ odds) as they dont seem to score a lot of goals. Having said that if i follow a tipster i follow them even if i disagree (sportspunter afl all the time usually im wrong)

    I would just love some better records to go over and analyse.
    I now have issues with winabob and i love everything about that service but cant make money from it anymore and because all of mikes records are to joke books they are almost irrelevant to me. I suspect if he had recorded to pinnacle or

    ps i think the SP mlb and nhl are excellent but have my doubts about NBA
    pps AFL NRL S15 and NFL arent too bad either