Are 1st goal/try scorer refunds worth it?

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  • Fred

    Hey Steve,
    What bookies do you recommend? I mean, we all know about Pinnacle or Betfair but where (and how many if you want to find the bests odds) would you put your money in?
    Thx mate!

  • Sadly the choices are very limited if your going to make a profit long term. Open accounts everywhere but very quickly you will be limited at every Australian bookie if you look like making a profit.
    90% of my bets are placed at Pinnacle, BF, Matchbook, SBObet.

  • Fred

    Thx mate. This is what i thought. I will only add 5Dimes to your selection. Good luck!

  • 5Dimes limits after a few withdrawals. Max bet for me is 125 now

  • Fred

    Steve, how do you manage to operate when traveling? I mean, as far as i know, many countries have restrictions as US.

  • Logmein, vpn, so on. In some countries I don’t bet at all even with these safeguards.

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  • Peter Hodgson

    Steve I’ve got a different opinion on the FTS bets in the NRL. I understand the maths of the market at 150% or more but that doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t find good value with individual players. I’ve made some money this year just backing wingers in the favourite teams. While the overall market is set at around 150% I think most bookies have the favored players (wingers who scores about 40% of FT) over their true odds and the outsider (forwards) way under their true odds. This leaves a situation where punters who have a good understanding of the market to achieve some value. Don’t think it’s a smart play just to avoid the markets altogether as you can find value in sections of the market. Interested in yours thoughts.

  • Hey Peter, Yes, I wouldn’t argue with that. I’ve seen hundreds of ways people make money betting, and there’s no reason you couldn’t make money in this area as well. There very well might be a longshot/favorite bias in the odds. But 150% markets are still very very hard to beat.
    But just backing wingers in a favorite team doesn’t seem like a longterm winning system. Sadly it would take at least 1000 games (as the odds are so high) to come up with a statistically significant number to see if your hypothesis was true.

  • Peter Hodgson

    Also with the specials, one bookmaker was paying out as a winner on both 1st and 2nd tryscorers. This gave you 2 opportunities to collect from the 150% market which I think means the market becomes 75% or there abouts giving the punter a chance to get real value. Thanks for your response.