Are 1st goal/try scorer refunds worth it?
As the new NRL and AFL season starts, the bookies are going to be doing all they can to entice you back to bet with them. Sportingbet have a refund if your team scores over 12 points but loses and sportsbet have the same deal but with 18 points. These offers do offer value and I happily take them up when I can. By doing a tiny bit of research you can figure out the average points a team scored per game last season, how strong the other teams defense was and how they performed against each other last year. Taking these bets also shouldn’t lead to your account being closed. These offers will only be around for the first week or two so take the few minutes it takes to do the research and make some profit. You can even back and lay the same bet at Betfair for an easy guaranteed profit.
Onto the offers these bookies will have over the full season. The ones that seem great. These include some of the images below.
Tatts have a refund on your 1st try scorer bet if the number 3 from either team scores a try. TAB refunds if the fullback scores the first try. The bookies want you to place these bets so badly, and you need to ask yourself why? The reason is simple. A H2H market is usually $1.90 on each team if they are fairly matched. This is a 105% market. The bookmaker will make 5% on average on this bet. So every $100 you bet they will pocket $5. Now onto the shocking truth about 1st Try scorer and 1st Goal scorer markets. The book on these are 150%. I’ll repeat that again, 150%. What that means is that for every $100 you bet on these markets, the bookmaker is making $50 on average from you. No wonder they will do anything to get you to bet these.
That is the same as changing the odds on those evenly matched teams from $1.90 each to $1.34 each. Would you bet with them if that was the case? No F^*^en way. The books use your lack of maths knowledge to screw you over royally. No amount of refunds can overcome the massive head-start these books have given themselves.
If you’re a smart gambler then you now know to stay well clear of these type of offers.