Are 1st goal/try scorer refunds worth it?

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11 Responses

  1. Fred says:

    Hey Steve,
    What bookies do you recommend? I mean, we all know about Pinnacle or Betfair but where (and how many if you want to find the bests odds) would you put your money in?
    Thx mate!

  2. Steve says:

    Sadly the choices are very limited if your going to make a profit long term. Open accounts everywhere but very quickly you will be limited at every Australian bookie if you look like making a profit.
    90% of my bets are placed at Pinnacle, BF, Matchbook, SBObet.

  3. Fred says:

    Thx mate. This is what i thought. I will only add 5Dimes to your selection. Good luck!

  4. Steve says:

    5Dimes limits after a few withdrawals. Max bet for me is 125 now

  5. Fred says:

    Steve, how do you manage to operate when traveling? I mean, as far as i know, many countries have restrictions as US.

  6. Steve says:

    Logmein, vpn, so on. In some countries I don’t bet at all even with these safeguards.

  7. Peter Hodgson says:

    Steve I’ve got a different opinion on the FTS bets in the NRL. I understand the maths of the market at 150% or more but that doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t find good value with individual players. I’ve made some money this year just backing wingers in the favourite teams. While the overall market is set at around 150% I think most bookies have the favored players (wingers who scores about 40% of FT) over their true odds and the outsider (forwards) way under their true odds. This leaves a situation where punters who have a good understanding of the market to achieve some value. Don’t think it’s a smart play just to avoid the markets altogether as you can find value in sections of the market. Interested in yours thoughts.

  8. Steve says:

    Hey Peter, Yes, I wouldn’t argue with that. I’ve seen hundreds of ways people make money betting, and there’s no reason you couldn’t make money in this area as well. There very well might be a longshot/favorite bias in the odds. But 150% markets are still very very hard to beat.
    But just backing wingers in a favorite team doesn’t seem like a longterm winning system. Sadly it would take at least 1000 games (as the odds are so high) to come up with a statistically significant number to see if your hypothesis was true.

  9. Peter Hodgson says:

    Also with the specials, one bookmaker was paying out as a winner on both 1st and 2nd tryscorers. This gave you 2 opportunities to collect from the 150% market which I think means the market becomes 75% or there abouts giving the punter a chance to get real value. Thanks for your response.

  1. June 17, 2014

    […] of their 1st goal scorer bets for all Australian and Brazilian players. Now I have talked about how bad these markets are before. Pretty much it is like offering you 1.34 when the odds should be $2. With a 50% boost, these […]

  2. August 3, 2014

    […] which ones offer value and which do not. I have written posts before about how much of a joke the 1st try scorer markets are. We hope to add between $2,000-$4,000 profit per year with these value […]

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