Aug 20th – Aug 26th -$2,996.58

[dropcap]A[/dropcap]nother very disappointing week and while the loss was not as big as last week, it felt even more depressing then usual. I was sitting on close to negative $40,000 for the year on Sunday afternoon before an AFL win and then a win on the Golf clawed back most of the losses. I really felt like betting had dropped off a cliff and there was no way I could continue to make money from it. I started to try and think of ways to make some guaranteed profit to pay the bills. Deciding to stop consulting work to concentrate on the site has meant a big squeeze on my finances and it doesn’t help that I have ethics that won’t allow me to make some quick money by pushing you all to join dodgy sportsbooks. The money involved in the affiliate business is massive and I could easily make a years wage in a matter of days by sending an email to all my subscribers and telling them about great new sportsbooks, but I know I would be lying and these sportsbooks don’t deserve new customers if they won’t treat them well. So if I ever seem to be trying to make a quick buck unethically, please publicly shame me on it. It is very strange how my mentality has changed now, taking into account no steady stream of income, the loss of my partners income (as she stops work for 18 months), and the soon to be arrival of my first kid. I long for an income stream that I know will be there every week to pay the bills and keep us fed. Luckily betting has provided a very healthy emergency fund for these very moments. Wow, woe is me. Ignore my moaning, this blog is my release valve. I know I’ll be fine and I know eventually things will turn around (over the long term).

That moaning leads onto the top 3 articles that I will try and write over the next month. I had a great response to the poll with over 260 of you voting in under 24 hours. The clear winner with 74 votes was the one about why I feel Pinnacle is a poor choice for small time bettors. In second place with 66 votes will be me showing you a video of how I go about placing my bets. In 3rd place, you get to see how I deal with my losses (more then just ranting on this blog), that article scored 44 votes.

In other news, I stopped following the Sportpunter Tennis models early in the week, normally I hate to stop following a service if I have not lost the bank I set up for it, but after following the model for over 4 years, something is very off with the old and now new models. The WTA seems to be stable, but the ATP is clearly not profitable in it’s current state. Normally when you stop following a service it starts to perform, but I have saved myself at least $8k this week from stopping and I’m very happy with that. Jonno has been working night and day trying to fix it, and I’m sure eventually he will figure it out. When he does I’ll be back on the ATP bandwagon. It’s quite a weird feeling not to be betting on tennis, as the US Open was the first event that really made a massive return for me in my second year when I had lost every cent I had made in the previous 14 months. Tennis is a great sport to have in your portfolio as it is played year round, limits are quite high and prices do not crash drastically. I hope my stay away is short lived.

Onto the weeks results and sadly Sportpunter didn’t perform again. With just 1 more round in the AFL before the finals, this seasons profit has not lived up to expectations (to clarify, my expectations were 100k profit). I do laugh at myself for being upset at a profit of $40,000 so far this season and feeling as though it has had a pretty poor year. This week I lost $7,000 on AFL, $300 on Tennis (before I stopped), $150 on NRL and the only profitable system was the MLB totals which made $2,800. All SP models combined since July 1st sit at a $43,705 loss.

ClubGOWI made $1,200 profit which included the Golf win alluded to above. Seems the big priced winners continue to cover the many smaller losses. Can not complain about the overall results though as I sit on close to $20,000 profit since December last year (with an extra $6k almost guaranteed with the Rory bet). My hope was to make 100 points profit in a year and we are on track.

The other Golf tipsters haven’t hit in a while and combined they lost $900 this week. Diamond Edge ended it’s recent great run with a loss of $2,800 and PCG made a small $300 profit.

I added another new service to my Soccer portfolio this season and it started with a win. Football Value is the newest member and this is a service with very few bets a season (50-80), but a pretty impressive track record. I will be following with $1,000 bets. This week Football Value made $915 profit. Owltips got back on track this week and I give credit to the way the service is run, they work hard to figure out the best times to send bets so that limits are high enough for people to get on. So far I’ve found that prices do not rebound so I need to get on straight away and will usually get 2-5c worse odds then those shown. $1,800 profit for Owltips this week. Football Elite also had a profitable week with $950 profit. The season is really starting to get into full swing and all the big boys will start sending bets in the next month.

I’m excited once again for this Soccer season. I just know that it’s ready to have that 1 amazing year where they all perform to their historical returns. I feel I learnt a lot of valuable lessons last season and will be implementing a few changes which should hopefully result in a lot smoother journey. I still hold out hope that I will be in profit by the time the first big round of Soccer bets are posted. Until next week.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Loss for the week was $2,996.58

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $989,664.00
Profit/Loss: $(28,047.98)
POT: -2.83%
Bets Placed: 1335
Won: 586
Lost: 659
Half Payout: 10
Refunded: 80
Winning %: 47.1%
Total profit per day: $319,476.86 / 1518 = $210.45
Total Turnover: $15,332,407.37
Total ROI: 2.08%

ATP – SP $180,114.00 $(20,446.90) -11.4%
week profit/loss: -522.28

WTA – SP $124,622.00 $509.62 0.4%
week profit/loss: 235.30

AFL H2H – SP $36,416.00 $10,746.42 29.5%
week profit/loss: -1354.12

AFL Line – SP $197,107.00 $(38,361.57) -19.5%
week profit/loss: -5590.78

SP MLB $147,733.00 $(1,236.79) -0.8%
week profit/loss: 2805.52

NRL SP $21,987.00 $5,755.35 26.2%
week profit/loss: -156.75

ClubGowi $92,139.00 $11,787.95 12.8%
week profit/loss: 1425

GOWI $2,357.00 $669.00 28.4%
week profit/loss: -200

Diamond Edge $90,000.00 $7,010.00 7.8%
week profit/loss: -2824.50

PCG $63,142.00 $1,719.44 2.7%
week profit/loss: 351.03

Jason Kelly Golf $2,966.00 $(2,366.00) -79.8%
week profit/loss: -550

Betswot $4,603.00 $(3,098.00) -67.3%
week profit/loss: -325

OwlTips $10,600.00 $(430.00) -4.1%
week profit/loss: 1855

FB Elite $2,500.00 $(550.00) -22.0%
week profit/loss: 950

Football Value $1,000.00 $915.00 91.5%
week profit/loss: 915

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  • Rog

    Like you said the football season Is soon in full swing. So how do you deal with conflicting bets ? I guess you will get a few with f-Elite , f-value , gowi and f-inv. in your portfolio.

  • Hey Rog,
    Usually the only one that overlaps is Gowi. This has been an issue for a while. I have no idea what to do with them to be honest. Normally it’s whichever one I bet first. That depends on when I get the emails.

  • PhatKoch

    Hi.

    Just wondering if you’d thrashed out a non over correlated portfolio with TFA ?

  • Yep, will try and talk about it this week or next.

  • Hi Steve

    Would you be interested in swapping links?

    I have been reading your blog for sometime on blogger and now on here and can’t wait for each post you make
    I have already added a link to you at My Bet Plan as I check in on your blog all the time

    My link details are:

    Website URL: http://mybetplan.blogspot.co.uk/
    Link text: My Bet Plan

    Regards, Paul

  • Hey Paul, I’ve added it to my resources page.
    Good luck with what I know is going to be one wild ride.