Dailytrades: Real users experience month 2-3

Dailytrades has now been live for 5 months and the results for members have been terrific. We are all still learning the best way to use this tool and what presets work the best. To get the fairest representation of the product, I not only have my own reviews (as of course I would use my own product), but we have real customer reviews as well. This is the second update from one of our customer and covers the period from March 7th to June 6th.

Dailytrades is $50/week or $175/month and gives you access to all Australian and European bookmakers.

The Learning Process

Figure 1. Total Trades Made.

Stats

Starting Balance: $2400

Bets Placed: 1448

Turnover: $67,000

Total Profit/Loss: +$1186

*Disclaimer* These profit totals do not include any arbitrative bets made utilising this tool.

Hello World! Today I provide the latest update on my sports trading using the Trademate come DailyTrades tool. For those having never heard of the product and wanting a quick lowdown, I recommend viewing this video and spending a period of time flicking through the various videos on Trademate’s Youtube channel.

The definition of a resistance point is a moment at which a trend meets with opposing or nullifying forces. Whilst this is sports trading and not a financial stock ramble, there must be some force to be held responsible for the graph above. Four times the chart tops out at roughly $1850 in profit, however, each period is met by a swift downward spiral. Nonetheless, the lessons learnt during this period are priceless. In this article, I will document some details on specific sports and identify a pattern worthy of recognition.

Sport Breakdown

Figure 2. Sports Breakdown.

The results above indicate all my trading through the various sports to date. Unfortunately, as the soccer winds down and there being no major tournament this offseason, my main bread winner will be out of action for the next three months or so. Basketball has been a poor performing sport for me, although other DailyTraders have enjoyed substantial profits. This is partly due to my initial lack of knowledge as a trader and partly due to bad luck. 300-odd trades will still lead to some sample error. This is perhaps best established by rugby league and union. Over 27% ROI across 64 trades! Maintaining a record of that magnitude is rather improbable and is the yin to basketballs yang.

The DailyTrades tool expertly differentiates between recommended and non-recommended leagues to trade. In addition to this mechanism, the pinnacle website can be used to source markets. Within the pinnacle website, the brokers will advise how much action they’re willing to receive on either side. This gives an indication of the level to which the punters have determined the pricing. The wisdom of crowds is an important consideration factor when placing a trade. Thus, the more money placed on an event, the more correct the price should be. Normally a market that is willing to take on a bet of $4000~ has been reasonably well traded. This tool thus allows you to recognise which of the non-recommended sports may be worth pursuing. The French Open has been one such non-recommended league/tournament I’ve been willing to trade on.

The French Open has been unforgiving during this period, recording a 2-13 win-loss record. However, all of these trades were placed close to the match beginning and all recorded a positive edge at the time of the first serve. Over a short window such as 15 trades, luck can play a relatively substantial role. This leads me to trend analysis. How can I analyse the data such that I can eliminate the element of luck as much as possible? It’s a question that has plagued all forms of investors at one point or another. The basic premise is to learn from your mistakes and to avoid them in future.

Trend Analysis

Figure 3. ‘4 & 2 Rule’ Breakdown.

This is a depiction of the results when the ‘4 & 2 rule’ is utilised. Across 646 trades the total profit has been $2585, performing similarly to the total expected value (black line) until recently. The ‘4 & 2 rule’ is a rule of betting on a sport with 4% edge or greater at the time of placement and 2% indicates the closing edge of the bet. Obviously, the trader has limited control over the closing edge of the bet. However, the closer the bet is placed to the beginning of the event, the less market movement is expected. Recognising these data forms is imperative to future success and thus I’ve made corrections on how I view each edge.

Figure 4. Basketball P/L in Handicap & Totals Markets.

 

Figure 5. Basketball P/L in Handicap & Totals Markets with ‘4 & 2’ Rule.

Earlier in this blog, I mentioned my poor performance in basketball. The primary bet placement in the NBA has been on the line bets. Average odds placed has been at $2.57 and the average true closing odds have been $2.42. Diving further into the analysis I can see that spread (or handicap) and total bets have amounted to $675 in loss. When the ‘4 & 2 rule’ is applied, incredibly I’m $450 in profit across 48 bets at an ROI of 10%. Of course, sample error is playing some part in these findings. Across the next 100 or so bets, a greater sense of clarity will be provided by the data. Nonetheless, these are exceptional findings and with the benefit of hindsight, a greater portion of my total funds would be focused on targeting this ruling.

Conclusion

Learning lessons is the name of the game in any and every moment of life. DailyTrades is a terrific tool in limiting beginner faults and making you profitable from day one with their advised stakes. Learning more and more about which edges see results and which edges don’t is only available to those that power through a thousand plus trades. In the first blog entry, I recapped my gain in knowledge based on a discussion with Tobias about the issues that surround bets placed in higher odds ranges. Learnt lesson number one was only attacking edges in odds ranges of $4+ when the edge is large (around 15%+) and the market is well traded. Now lessons are being gained in the significance of each edge zone, whether that be 1-2, 2-3 or 4%+. I look forward to sharing my knowledge gained next month as I continue to trade in MLB, Tennis and Rugby.

I hope you enjoyed the read and may the variance be on your side.

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