December 16th – December 21st -$10,430.00

[dropcap]2[/dropcap]000 days of betting and the last 42 of those days have been terrible. 6 straight weeks of losses and it is not going to be a very merry betting Christmas. As I always say, looking at it from the short term perceptive (6 weeks and a $97,200 loss) would make me feel like crawling into bed in the fetal position and rocking myself while chanting “when will it end, when will it end”. Instead I choose to look at the longer term view and see a $400,000 profit from a hobby that not only gives me great entertainment value, but also a profit and many life lessons. I pinch myself that I’ve been paid $200 a day for 5 and a half years to do this.

This week I was eagerly awaiting the review into the IGA and assumed that it would be posted for all to read. But it seems we will have to wait a few more months to see what was in the review and the position the government ends up taking. I did download a few of the submissions that were publicly available and this one by Tristan Merlehan who runs Topsport was amazing. When those points come from me, it can be seen as a whining punter, but when a bookmaker says the exact same things, it really shows that bookmaking in Australia is broken.

dprofitadinpost

Onto this weeks losses and off course their were a few more bets on the Hawks under and that meant huge losses. It really has got me thinking about trying to put some of my own judgement into the bets, but I wouldn’t even know where to start. There are clear patterns that emerge from the SP models each year and by simply not betting it would save me a heap of losses. This week the other NBL bets did well and that resulted in a $500 profit. NHL Totals lost $250 but I feel a turnaround is coming for this model. NBA made $300 and this one also seems to be turning around as well. But the NFL had a shocker and lost $17,510. That brings the season into a loss of $9,560.

Soccer combo returned $6,400 and another few 94th minute goals went against me. Still waiting for the reverse to happen. The Euro bets made $400 and the draw bets gave back $300.

Just over 1 week left in 2015 and I find myself in a similar position to many other years with a very low return for the last 6 months of the year. It really looked like things had flipped when sitting on $110,000 profit at the start of November, but the last 6 weeks have taken all of those profits back. Never has the term “easy come, easy go” been so true. 50/50 chance I end the year in a profit or loss.

I’d like to wish you a very Merry Christmas and thank you for reading the blog this year. It’s a great outlet for me to purge when I have bad weeks and it also helps to celebrate the good times when they come along. I hope some of my ramblings were useful for you in some way. While the betting has not been great, I’ve still had an amazing year and I hope you have too.

Total Loss for the week was $10,430.00

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Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $3,233,390.00
Profit/Loss: $9,190.00
POT: 0.28%
Bets Placed: 2563
Won: 955
Lost: 1276
Half Payout: 24
Refunded: 308
Winning %: 42.8%
Total profit per day: $395,250.00 / 2001 = $197.52
Total Turnover: $25,119,420.00
Total ROI: 1.57%

NBL Totals $121,080.00 $(13,690.00) -11.3%
week profit/loss: -730

NBL Line $119,040.00 $700.00 0.6%
week profit/loss: 1250

NHL Totals $162,740.00 $10.00 0.0%
week profit/loss: -240

NFL Totals $292,440.00 $(26,770.00) -9.2%
week profit/loss: -4900

NFL Line $261,000.00 $17,800.00 6.8%
week profit/loss: -12,610

NBA Totals $250,660.00 $10,410.00 4.2%
week profit/loss: 2680

NBA H2H $92,590.00 $6,580.00 7.1%
week profit/loss: -2360

Soccer combo $523,330.00 $40,130.00 7.7%
week profit/loss: 6390

E1-E6 $55,000.00 $(11,130.00) -20.2%
week profit/loss: 390

D1-D6 $48,500.00 $7,510.00 15.5%
week profit/loss: -300

Steamers $5,000.00 $(1,560.00) -31.2%
week profit/loss: 0

Jason Kelly $7,050.00 $(3,810.00) -54.0%
week profit/loss: -150

Betswot $3,610.00 $(920.00) -25.5%
week profit/loss: 0

Odds Pushed Out $21,000.00 $(480.00) -2.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Personal $319,230.00 $(10,210.00) -3.2%
week profit/loss: 0

Mistake $3,800.00 $3,750.00 98.7%
week profit/loss: 0

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  • Dominic

    Tough weeks, but gotta hope soon there’s gotta be a turning point hopefully 🙂

    One question I do have is, do you track closing lines for all your picks? I mean considering you’re at loosing streak, seeing if the system you follow at least is beating the closing lines would add some little comfort, and if it doesn’t beat them, then maybe just abandon it.
    Regards.

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  • Luke

    +1 on Dominic’s thoughts.

  • Luke

    Also, how good was Tristan’s submission? Great to see someone from the other side of the fence be so upfront and honest. I really hope Barry reads that submission, I would love to see Tristan involved in the process, will add credit and weight to the mentioned points.

  • Hey Dominic,
    I used to track but have got lazy. The issue with Soccer betting is that I am mostly betting at closing prices. But I have the same belief as you that betting at closing prices is very hard to beat. The Sportpunter services all bet early and they are the only ways making a consistent profit (as they do beat closing lines). I really need an assistant to get closing lines for me 🙂

  • Dominic

    Yea I think especially soccer where there is so much liquidity the closing lines are so accurate one would need to be really sharp with them. I’m getting slowly into understanding all this, not much expert myself yet, but if you need help tracking it I could help potentially 🙂

  • Cheers. I’ll do a review of Soccer at the end of this season. Not sure I’ll continue with it going forward

  • Dominic

    Anytime. I know soccer hasnt been greatly kind to you … Soccer betting in general using specific system seems not work as well as Australian or American sports which seems strange. Or maybe it’s just because sportspunter is so great causing false expectations for other systems heh

  • you might have hit the nail on the head there. Although SP did try soccer models at one stage and decided to stop.. So it must be a tough one to model (profitably)

  • Dominic

    I look forward to your yearly review, sad to see you switch monthly format (I found your blog not that long ago so thanks for writing it once again, amazing read all the way from beginning, really solidified a lot of thoughts I had for me) but I definitely agree it’s for the better, I hope you’ll be able to write some even smallest articles in between though 🙂

  • Thanks Dom,
    Moving to monthly will give me more time for other articles 🙂

    Glad some of my articles could help.