December 22nd – December 29th -$10,970.00

[dropcap]W[/dropcap]ell that was not the start I wanted for my 36th year on this planet. My actual birthday was great, went out for lunch, had people over, got some cool presents and then my mates got involved. We decided to head to a seedy pub at 6:30 pm on a Monday night and become a bookies wet dream, that is to say, we were betting on every single race and picking horses/dogs/trots based off nothing more then their name and our own growing confidence in our abilities to do so as more beer was poured into our systems. After that pub closed at around 9ish?? (by this stage I had no idea what time it was), instead of doing the responsible thing that 4 dads (plus 1 dog owner) should do on a monday night, the bright lights and cheap booze of a club across the street called us in. 3 and a bit more hours of drinking and I stumble home just in time to place the Soccer bets. There are not many times when I wish I was so drunk I was incapable of clicking a mouse, but this was one of those times. My ability to place bets while severely inebriated cost $24,110.00 and moved me from a fairly decent 6 month profit level back to a small loss. It also increased the current draw down to $112,000. With an 11 unit NFL bet being playing now, I could very easily be sitting on -$13,000 by the time you are reading this (Bet is on O 39.5 in the CIN v DEN match). Update: It lost, but is not reflected in this weeks results.

Hungover.. Check, losing $24,110 as I’m sleeping… Check. Surely nothing else can go wrong today…. Well you would be wrong. My son Oliver figured out how to climb and managed to find my laptop and smash it on the floor, completely destroying it.. The cheeky little bugger. I could only laugh at that. I’m actually not all that fussed with the current bad run, I’ve been here before (or close to it) and I’ll see it again many more times. Update: Let’s take today’s total losses to $36,000.

This will be the last post for 2015, so I hope you all have had a great year. Thanks for coming to read my ramblings in 2015. Next year I will be moving the weekly updates to monthly ones. When betting the amounts I am, daily swings are massive, and so to are weekly. Monthly will smooth a lot of that out and give me more time to work on other articles. The weekly updates also prime me to think in short term increments and with such large swings, it does me no favors.


Onto this weeks losses and it’s a replica of many other weeks, getting into a strong position throughout the week and then a punch in the guts on Sunday (and Monday) night. The NBL lost $7,800 and the majority of that was down to a half point loss in the Sydney game. There were off course more Hawks under bets as well. The NFL made $7,000, but that does not include the $11,000 loss this afternoon. NHL made $500 and NBA also made $8,900.

There is a heap of English soccer going on and the midweek games did ok, it was this mornings games that killed any chance of a profit this week. All up the Soccer combo model lost $14,650 and brings the ROI this season to a more realistic 4.1%. The Draw picks were poor and lost $4,900.

Still waiting for a week where I can show a positive sign, hopefully that comes in January. I hope you enjoy your new years celebrations. Not a great position to be in and the last 6 months of work have been worth nothing, but lucky the current hole isn’t too deep and we now enter the historically stronger 6 month period. It’s been a wild ride in 2015.

Total Loss for the week was $10,970.00

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Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $3,466,150.00
Profit/Loss: -$1,780.00
POT: -0.05%
Bets Placed: 2730
Won: 1021
Lost: 1367
Half Payout: 24
Refunded: 318
Winning %: 42.8%
Total profit per day: $384,280.00 / 2008 = $191.37
Total Turnover: $25,352,180.00
Total ROI: 1.52%

NBL Totals $123,710.00 $(16,320.00) -13.2%
week profit/loss: -2630

NBL Line $128,470.00 $(4,490.00) -3.5%
week profit/loss: -5190

NHL Totals $180,840.00 $480.00 0.3%
week profit/loss: 470

NFL Totals $314,990.00 $(16,540.00) -5.3%
week profit/loss: 10,230

NFL Line $295,030.00 $14,580.00 4.9%
week profit/loss: -3,220

NBA Totals $274,510.00 $16,490.00 6.0%
week profit/loss: 6080

NBA H2H $100,260.00 $9,400.00 9.4%
week profit/loss: 2820

Soccer combo $627,330.00 $25,470.00 4.1%
week profit/loss: -14,660

E1-E6 $55,000.00 $(11,130.00) -20.2%
week profit/loss: 0

D1-D6 $59,000.00 $2,640.00 4.5%
week profit/loss: -4870

Steamers $5,000.00 $(1,560.00) -31.2%
week profit/loss: 0

Jason Kelly $7,050.00 $(3,810.00) -54.0%
week profit/loss: 0

Betswot $3,610.00 $(920.00) -25.5%
week profit/loss: 0

Odds Pushed Out $21,000.00 $(480.00) -2.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Personal $319,230.00 $(10,210.00) -3.2%
week profit/loss: 0

Mistake $3,800.00 $3,750.00 98.7%
week profit/loss: 0

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