December 9th – December 15th -$8,640.00

[dropcap]5[/dropcap] weeks in a row of losses and while this one was the smallest of the 5, it hurt the most. Sunday night I was sitting on $42,000 profit and very happy with the week. Monday morning changed all that as the NFL, NHL and NBA gave all the profit and more back. Really frustrating period and no matter what, a little depression always kicks in. I try not to, but I still cling to that $110,000 profit mark just over a month ago, that was betting nirvana for me and these quick 100k drops always hurt. It is just reverting to the mean, and is due a little bounce to get it back in between that 1-2% ROI but I still pine for that 5% ROI season.

No time for a video this week as I am down the coast for a few days to recharge and set out a plan for 2016. I think the videos will do better with a monthly profit and loss update. But I will also make short videos every few weeks that concentrate on other aspects of betting. The first one I want to do is to show how easy it is to fake betslips and use social media to make it look like you are winning. It seems more and more of these scams are popping up and people are falling for them. Hopefully if you know how it is done, you will be able to see right through these con artists.

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We will start this weeks profit and losses with Sportpunter. The NBL and especially the Hawks have been a real downer this year. In last weeks video I talked about how the Hawks coach had decided to change the way they play at the start of the season and it was a weakness in the model. Jonno made some changes after that video but there was still a big bet on the under in the next Hawks game, the bet was $5,000 on under 174.5. For once it seemed the model had got it right as the Hawks were down by 18 in the last and the under was all but guaranteed. We all know how this goes… the hawks came back and managed to take it to overtime, there was still a chance that it would go under in overtime, but not when it went to double overtime. After that game I decided to see how I had done just betting games with the Hawks in them. This season I have lost over $30,000 when betting on hawks games. So really, the model is doing well for every other team, it’s just the hawks it has no idea about. This weeks loss ended up being just $3,050. The NHL made $2,000 but has not done well at all this season. The NBA made $4,650 and has been a steady performer, the big surprise is the H2H bets which I bet much less on. NFL lost $9,500.

The Soccer combo model lost $9,900 and as always it would have taken just 1 or 2 draws to turn into wins to see a nice profit, but those draws did help the D1-D6 system make a healthy $5,150 profit. The Euro bets also made $1,000. Jason Kelly lost $150 and I bet on the wrong side of an NBA total which made me $1,200.

Frustrating is the word for the last 5 weeks. I really thought this week was going to be a profitable one, but instead it brings the current draw down to $87,000. 2 weeks left for 2016, my graph resembles a roller-coaster and I’ll be hoping off almost where I started.

Total Loss for the week was $8,640.00

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Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $3,020,540.00
Profit/Loss: $19,620.00
POT: 0.65%
Bets Placed: 2397
Won: 888
Lost: 1180
Half Payout: 24
Refunded: 305
Winning %: 42.9%
Total profit per day: $405,680.00 / 1994 = $203.45
Total Turnover: $24,906,570.00
Total ROI: 1.63%

NBL Totals $106,280.00 $(12,960.00) -12.2%
week profit/loss: -8210

NBL Line $111,610.00 $(550.00) -0.5%
week profit/loss: 5160

NHL Totals $148,590.00 $250.00 0.2%
week profit/loss: 1980

NFL Totals $257,850.00 $(21,870.00) -8.5%
week profit/loss: -6800

NFL Line $230,370.00 $30,410.00 13.2%
week profit/loss: -2710

NBA Totals $225,560.00 $7,730.00 3.4%
week profit/loss: 1190

NBA H2H $82,990.00 $8,940.00 10.8%
week profit/loss: 3480

Soccer combo $458,280.00 $33,740.00 7.4%
week profit/loss: -9890

E1-E6 $49,000.00 $(11,520.00) -23.5%
week profit/loss: 980

D1-D6 $43,000.00 $7,810.00 18.2%
week profit/loss: 5140

Steamers $5,000.00 $(1,560.00) -31.2%
week profit/loss: 0

Jason Kelly $7,050.00 $(3,810.00) -54.0%
week profit/loss: -150

Betswot $3,610.00 $(920.00) -25.5%
week profit/loss: 0

Odds Pushed Out $21,000.00 $(480.00) -2.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Personal $319,230.00 $(10,210.00) -3.2%
week profit/loss: 0

Mistake $3,800.00 $3,750.00 98.7%
week profit/loss: 1186.75

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