Feb 12th – Feb 18th -$7,868.37

AHHHH, so bloody frustrating at times. Soccer just keeps piling on the losses and really it’s beginning to feel like I am going insane. The old saying of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results seems to be holding true here. Every week I expect things to turn around (even by pure random luck) and every week I get the same result. So that leaves two conclusions, I am either insane (very possible), or the tipsters I am following are terrible (also very likely). We can continue to say how this season is a rare one and never has it been so hard to predict, but I assumed there was something in the modelling that could deal with these sort of situations. I know the Sportpunter Tennis model always struggles when a new player goes on a great run, but after a month it starts to understand that players new abilities better. This doesn’t seem to be the case with these soccer models.

Speaking of the Tennis model, it is terrible this season, and off course I upped my bank. $3,200 lost this week and I guess I am a little glad it is getting even harder to achieve posted odds, as it means I am betting a bit less. Two new Sportpunter models started this week. The AFL NAB cup, which I am betting at half stakes and have made $1,300 and the Super 15 model which picked a $6 winner with its first bet and is up $2,100 after just two games. The american sports are taking a break for the Olympics and All star weekend, but NBA still lost $2,100 at the start of the week. NBL only added $1,100 profit for the week with some big bets losing by half a point.

ClubGOWI had an amazing week and to be honest, I didn’t even realise as I was so frustrated with the other Soccer losses. A $5,000 profit and winner after winner each night of the week. The golf was poor again and another $750 lost this week.

Onto the thing that will be the death of me. SOCCER. After the good run last month, Football Elite has reverted to its usual state and lost $5,100. I saved money on Skeeve as there was a competing bet with TFA and I bet the TFA side (no idea why, they are both terrible at the moment). This resulted in a small $300 loss instead of many thousands. Combo Football Investor made $1400 and is the happy place I go when everything else is trying to destroy me. TFA lost a whopping $7,300 and is now at almost 50% of the bank lost again. I have saved myself a fortune by lowering bets, don’t even want to know how bad I would be if I hadn’t. Total Soccer losses now stand at over $50,000 for the season and we are running out of time to make any of that back. I will be replying to Graeme’s post when I get some free time in the coming weeks.

My last post about how tipsters should record odds has had a lot of feedback and I feel that the customer should come first in this business. But usually the customer is pretty ignorant. I think it is the responsibility of the good tipsters and subscribers making a profit to educate potential customers. A lot of services have said if they showed the “real” number then they wouldn’t get any customers. To that I say if your not offering value to your customers then you shouldn’t be making any money. I can see how tough it was in an unregulated market with so many dodgy tipsters giving the few good ones a bad name, and that’s why we should always try to educate anyone who is thinking of paying for tips.

I am also going to become a member of the Secret Betting Club this week as I have been talking to them and was given a copy of their recent newsletter and the info in there was fantastic.

More midweek bets tonight and more then likely another heavy loss. No idea why I continue to bet, I must be insane.

Total loss for the week was $7,868.37

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,494,712.00
Profit/Loss: $31,108.15
POT: 1.25%
Bets Placed: 4,252
Won: 1536
Lost: 2480
Half Payout: 19
Refunded: 217
Winning %: 38.2%
Total profit per day: $218,630.24 / 1329 = $164.50
Total Turnover: $12,244,541.53
Total ROI: 1.79%

ATP – SP $298,496.00 $(2,116.37) -0.7%
week profit/loss: -3176.77

AFL H2H – SP $25,610.00 $4,912.05 19.2%
week profit/loss: 776.85

AFL Line – SP $188,695.00 $40,378.67 21.4%
week profit/loss: 546

Rugby SP $1,061.00 $2,103.15 198.2%
week profit/loss: 2103.15

FB Elite $162,000.00 $(8,321.00) -5.1%
week profit/loss: -5140

Skeeve $78,790.00 $(10,776.10) -13.7%
week profit/loss: -318

Combo FI $91,215.00 $12,077.88 13.2%
week profit/loss: 1366.50

TFA $471,876.00 $(46,614.58) -9.87%
week profit/loss: -7328.50

ClubGowi $140,241.00 $10,378.90 7.4%
week profit/loss: 5021.50

NP Win $18,398.00 $(4,355.00) -23.7%
week profit/loss: -750

NHL Totals $247,425.00 $(5,774.39) -2.3%
week profit/loss:

NBL Totals $91,372.00 $26,342.35 28.8%
week profit/loss: 1067

NBL Line $75,429.00 $24,773.17 32.8%
week profit/loss: 48

NBA Totals $117,892.00 $1,651.10 1.4%
week profit/loss: -541.65

NBA H2H $78,094.00 $6,979.65 8.9%
week profit/loss: -1542.25

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  • Pawn_pt

    I’ll grab some popcorn, looking forward to read your post answering to Graeme’s. 😀 I think he has a point regarding your choices of systems, I don’t know how you did it, but it seems (he said) you got some correlated systems which will always leverage your return, either up or down… 50k losses due to soccer is so bad… and indeed there isn’t much more time to recover, hope next week will be a +20k week! Cheers,

  • Extremely correlated and I knew that going in. A few points I disagree with, just need to find the time to reply. I don’t know how Graeme can write so much and still work full time.
    A 20k week would be lovely, but I highly doubt it until AFL season starts back

  • Matt Wheatley

    Hang in there mate. I’ve been inspired by your mindset before.
    Maybe dropping all football (round ball version) would help.

    I’m like you in that I love the round ball game, so it SHOULD be fun to bet on, but I’ve just never made any money betting on it.

  • Cheers Matt,
    My hope is that this season has just been a really strange one. Apparently that’s what the numbers say, but we cant be sure until the end of next season.

    Im sure it would save my sanity to drop them, but the potential is what keeps me going. I can bet so much more on Soccer then anything else and even if I can get my lousy historical ROI of 2%, that would give a very healthy boost to profits each year. Just got to keep going and hope I’m on the right side.

    Thanks again for the post.

  • Vidar

    Good start on the rugby! Do you play the H2H or Line bets, or both? And if you don´t mind, what Kelly Fractional do you use and with what bank-size?

    Thanks,
    Vidar

  • Hey Vidar,
    I’m just playing the H2H as the line and margin betting have not done well historically.
    $5,000 and full kelly.