Feb 12th – Feb 18th -$7,868.37
AHHHH, so bloody frustrating at times. Soccer just keeps piling on the losses and really it’s beginning to feel like I am going insane. The old saying of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results seems to be holding true here. Every week I expect things to turn around (even by pure random luck) and every week I get the same result. So that leaves two conclusions, I am either insane (very possible), or the tipsters I am following are terrible (also very likely). We can continue to say how this season is a rare one and never has it been so hard to predict, but I assumed there was something in the modelling that could deal with these sort of situations. I know the Sportpunter Tennis model always struggles when a new player goes on a great run, but after a month it starts to understand that players new abilities better. This doesn’t seem to be the case with these soccer models.
Speaking of the Tennis model, it is terrible this season, and off course I upped my bank. $3,200 lost this week and I guess I am a little glad it is getting even harder to achieve posted odds, as it means I am betting a bit less. Two new Sportpunter models started this week. The AFL NAB cup, which I am betting at half stakes and have made $1,300 and the Super 15 model which picked a $6 winner with its first bet and is up $2,100 after just two games. The american sports are taking a break for the Olympics and All star weekend, but NBA still lost $2,100 at the start of the week. NBL only added $1,100 profit for the week with some big bets losing by half a point.
ClubGOWI had an amazing week and to be honest, I didn’t even realise as I was so frustrated with the other Soccer losses. A $5,000 profit and winner after winner each night of the week. The golf was poor again and another $750 lost this week.
Onto the thing that will be the death of me. SOCCER. After the good run last month, Football Elite has reverted to its usual state and lost $5,100. I saved money on Skeeve as there was a competing bet with TFA and I bet the TFA side (no idea why, they are both terrible at the moment). This resulted in a small $300 loss instead of many thousands. Combo Football Investor made $1400 and is the happy place I go when everything else is trying to destroy me. TFA lost a whopping $7,300 and is now at almost 50% of the bank lost again. I have saved myself a fortune by lowering bets, don’t even want to know how bad I would be if I hadn’t. Total Soccer losses now stand at over $50,000 for the season and we are running out of time to make any of that back. I will be replying to Graeme’s post when I get some free time in the coming weeks.
My last post about how tipsters should record odds has had a lot of feedback and I feel that the customer should come first in this business. But usually the customer is pretty ignorant. I think it is the responsibility of the good tipsters and subscribers making a profit to educate potential customers. A lot of services have said if they showed the “real” number then they wouldn’t get any customers. To that I say if your not offering value to your customers then you shouldn’t be making any money. I can see how tough it was in an unregulated market with so many dodgy tipsters giving the few good ones a bad name, and that’s why we should always try to educate anyone who is thinking of paying for tips.
I am also going to become a member of the Secret Betting Club this week as I have been talking to them and was given a copy of their recent newsletter and the info in there was fantastic.
More midweek bets tonight and more then likely another heavy loss. No idea why I continue to bet, I must be insane.
Total loss for the week was $7,868.37
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,494,712.00
Bets Placed: 4,252
Half Payout: 19
Winning %: 38.2%
Total profit per day: $218,630.24 / 1329 = $164.50
Total Turnover: $12,244,541.53
Total ROI: 1.79%
ATP – SP $298,496.00 $(2,116.37) -0.7%
week profit/loss: -3176.77
AFL H2H – SP $25,610.00 $4,912.05 19.2%
week profit/loss: 776.85
AFL Line – SP $188,695.00 $40,378.67 21.4%
week profit/loss: 546
Rugby SP $1,061.00 $2,103.15 198.2%
week profit/loss: 2103.15
FB Elite $162,000.00 $(8,321.00) -5.1%
week profit/loss: -5140
Skeeve $78,790.00 $(10,776.10) -13.7%
week profit/loss: -318
Combo FI $91,215.00 $12,077.88 13.2%
week profit/loss: 1366.50
TFA $471,876.00 $(46,614.58) -9.87%
week profit/loss: -7328.50
ClubGowi $140,241.00 $10,378.90 7.4%
week profit/loss: 5021.50
NP Win $18,398.00 $(4,355.00) -23.7%
week profit/loss: -750
NHL Totals $247,425.00 $(5,774.39) -2.3%
NBL Totals $91,372.00 $26,342.35 28.8%
week profit/loss: 1067
NBL Line $75,429.00 $24,773.17 32.8%
week profit/loss: 48
NBA Totals $117,892.00 $1,651.10 1.4%
week profit/loss: -541.65
NBA H2H $78,094.00 $6,979.65 8.9%
week profit/loss: -1542.25