Feb 26th – Mar 4th +$30,675.26

WOWAWEEWAH. Back to back massive weeks has catapulted the profits into a new territory for me. I’m too lazy to look back through my past posts, but I believe this may be the first ever $30k+ week. Even in my wildest predictions, I never thought my profit could be this high at this stage. It was at the start of November that I was begging for a break even season when sitting at -$50,000. Amazing the amount of profit that can be made when things start going well. Lets hope the introduction of the AFL season this month adds even more to the profit and I can break the magical $100,000 barrier for the season.

Lets start with the small amount of pain I had to endure while watching an NBL game on the weekend. I had a $2,000 bet on the -4.5 line and with 5 seconds left my team was up by 4 and stole the ball and had two guys under the oppositions ring, they pass the ball and the guy has a good 3 seconds to layup, dunk, make a cup of tea. What does he do, dribbles the ball away from the ring and lets time expire. WHY. Closest I have ever been to throwing my remote at the tv. Serves me right for watching games I bet on and I know I say it every time, but I have to stop watching games. The soccer starts at 2am every Sunday morning and I sit with my Flashscores app while watching an EPL game and don’t get to bed till 5am. Last weeks goal was to go without Facebook, Twitter and my RSS feeds, I lasted the 5 days of the week. This week my goal is to not watch games.

I’ll also talk about Skeeve before getting onto the results. He has now started sending some German tips and this really got to me, I know I can easily delete the emails and I do, but it really seems he is doing all this as a backup plan for his service. I was so so close to not following this weeks picks as I thought that if he is already trying to cover his arse then why should I have any faith in his tipping. But then I felt bad for him, he is just trying to run a business and some other streams of income are a good idea as clearly his own tipping is not looking great (up until this week at least). Then the first ever 5 point bet I can remember pops up and that got me thinking he was chasing (but it was due to low odds). So after all this I decided to bet, but for the first time ever, the two bookies I can get multi bets at (conference south league) were below the minimum odds of 1.60 so I did not place the bet. I managed to get on the other two and the draw got very very lucky. The other was a good win.

Onto the results.

Tennis made a comeback with $5,100 profit, the NAB cup ended with $2,100 profit and a nice profit for the tournament, good signs for the season ahead. Rugby had its first losing week, shedding $800. After the shocking NBL result, it ended the week up $250. NBA also made a tiny profit. NHL started up again after the Olympics and 95% of games are going over and luckily the model was on the over for most of these games. $5,500 profit and back evens for the season after being down a fairly hefty sum. So the winner of the Daily25 awards makes me around $12,000 for the week.

Soccer has made a blistering comeback, down $60k at one stage and now just down $10k. Another tipster pushes into positive territory and Skeeve is also close. FB Elite seems to have turned the corner with $8,200 profit this week and Skeeve added $6,900. Combo FI continues its year long form with $1,800 and TFA added a further $5,000.

ClubGOWI had a poor week with a $3,000 loss and I am still yet to see a profit from his Soccer picks. I think he feels that he needs to have bets every day and sometimes there is nothing good but he is expected to send out bets. After the season I will do some analysis on what leagues he seems to excel at. I wish he kept a real list of results so I could do some proper testing, but I will need to rely on my own data. Nics Picks never looked like winning this week and lost another $775, really need a second win of the season.

I will be writing a post in the coming days about Pinnacle Sports. This time I feel they have taken things too far in regards to a timer being implemented for some bets, it seems they are now referring a few ClubGOWI bets to a trader and this would be the first step on a very slippery slope to being just like every other bookie. I was asked by the Pinnacle rep on Twitter to let them answer my questions before I post anything, I have given them 36 hours and still no reply. There are a number of things I want to discuss, but it seems they are now targeting clients of successful tipsters and this just isn’t on. They say they don’t limit winners and work like a traditional bookie, but this behavior shows they will at the end of the day, do anything to stop people making money from them. Just like all the rest.

Still need to get around to also replying to Graeme and I’m hoping I can find some free time this week, but can’t promise anything.

Other good news that none of you would care about is that I just got back from my indoor soccer Grand final and we won the game easily. I scored 2 beauties and set up 3 others. Not that I’m talking myself up or anything, but I’m very talented. haha

What an amazing run and it has mirrored last season as I kept saying earlier. If it continues to mirror, there is at least another month of profits before a small dip and then more profits to round out the season. Well over $250,000 now and 1/4 of the way to a real milestone. Long may it continue.

Total profit for the week was $30,675.26

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,700,746.34
Profit/Loss: $89,201.59
POT: 3.30%
Bets Placed: 4,649
Won: 1717
Lost: 2677
Half Payout: 21
Refunded: 234
Winning %: 39.1%
Total profit per day: $276,723.68/ 1343 = $206.04
Total Turnover: $12,450,575.87
Total ROI: 2.22%

ATP – SP $326,184.00 $4,062.46 1.2%
week profit/loss: 5170.23

AFL H2H – SP $31,795.00 $4,893.75 15.4%
week profit/loss: 1420.20

AFL Line – SP $207,830.00 $41,317.17 19.9%
week profit/loss: 742.50

Rugby SP $7,113.00 $3,792.22 53.3%
week profit/loss: -767.43

FB Elite $185,000.00 $4,339.00 2.3%
week profit/loss: 8200

Skeeve $88,498.00 $(2,867.70) -3.2%
week profit/loss: 6900

Combo FI $105,215.00 $17,092.88 16.2%
week profit/loss: 1805

TFA $509,126.00 $(28,337.08) -5.56%
week profit/loss: 5017.50

ClubGowi $168,391.00 $7,183.60 4.3%
week profit/loss: -2954.60

NP Win $19,629.34 $(5,511.34) -28.1%
week profit/loss: -775

NHL Totals $253,928.00 $(217.40) -0.1%
week profit/loss: 5556.99

NBL Totals $92,899.00 $27,660.89 29.8%
week profit/loss: 567

NBL Line $83,738.00 $26,943.67 32.2%
week profit/loss: -302

NBA Totals $129,964.00 $912.79 0.7%
week profit/loss: -880.86

NBA H2H $83,318.00 $8,468.01 10.2%
week profit/loss: 975.73

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  • Skeeve picks

    Hi Steve,

    I haven’t visited your blog for some time, but it looks like I’ll have to reply to almost every post you’ve written in these few months as there’s an enormous quantity of rubbish and lies written about my service. I’ll just start with this latest post and move to the older posts when I find the time.

    First of all, the German Football Bets that “got to you” (I’m so sorry they got to you, mate) are the latest addition to my own betting portfolio. If you’d read the e-mails instead of deleting them, you’d know all there is to know about it, but no – you’ve traditionally decided not just to delete them, but to publically shit on a project you know nothing about. So let me waste even more time on the peripheral aspects of my service and let your readers know what it’s really about. When BetPlace went under, not because they weren’t profitable but because it was a big team that didn’t manage to attract enough customers, many of my clients have asked if I could make some sort of a deal with interested tipsters from ex-BetPlace (the guys from BetPlace and me are from the same part of the world). I went on a couple of meetings, learned that almost all BetPlace tipsters have switched to other projects in the meantime, but managed to make a deal with Harley, a German football tipster with a long-term ROI of 11% who wrote more than three thousand articles over at BetPlace. Subsequently, I’ll be sending all of Harley’s picks to my clients free of charge at least until the end of the season. I’ll be paying Harley for his efforts out of my own pocket while my clients can choose between following him or deleting the e-mails.

    The set-up is the same as with the Croatian Football Bets, another free project I’m involved with for a year now as an administrator and a senior advisor. You’ve probably deleted all the e-mails, so let me just say that the Croatian Football Bets are currently at a +14.92 point profit (19.3% ROI, 59.6% ROC) for the 2013/14 season so far (one-point flat stakes, advised bank: 25 points). These picks are also free of charge for my clients, at least until the end of the season. You’re welcome.

    Also, I’ve advised many five-point bets so far. This was the first five-point bet this season (it landed of course), but we’ve had some last season (and every season before that) – maybe you were winning a soccer tournament somewhere and missed them.

    Should I feel relieved that TFA didn’t have a bet on Tamworth because, if he had, you would’ve given the other double a miss as well? Also, you do realise you would’ve catched better odds for the five-point double if you had taken the bet straight away and not, I don’t know, twelve hours later, don’t you?

    So the draw was very, very lucky and when a team I’m betting on misses a penalty, hits the woodwork four times and concedes from the other team’s only shot on goal I’m just rubbish? Sure. Very fair, very consistent, thanks mate.

    If anyone is thinking about starting a tipping service, think again. Or, at least, don’t try and be fair to everyone. Don’t have a waiting list, just take all the clients you can, even if it means destroying the odds for everyone. Money is the only thing it matters, not fair play. Don’t record odds with a fair delay, just record the odds with StanJames and BetVictor. They don’t even have to be the odds available at that moment in time – yesterday’s odds are good as well. Sure, none of your clients will match the official results, but the official results will look better. Also, if you go on a prolonged losing run, just go insane and lose the entire betting bank. Why would you want to help your clients get some of those lost points back by sending them specialised picks from proven tipsters free of charge? That’s mental. Also, forget about the detailed previews, picks coming at the same time every week, recap e-mails, season reviews, other publications that try and help your clients maximise the profit and avoid dodgy bookmakers and fellow services. What’s wrong with simply sending the name of the team you’re betting on, without a preview, without the available odds, without the minimum value odds attached… Last but not least, don’t give bloggers a 50% discount. I was a blogger myself, sharing my picks for free before I turned my service into a paid one so that I could get rid of the boring freelance jobs and pay the rent (not everyone had a betting bank by default – some of us started with nothing), and I really had nothing but respect for the likes of Rowan Day, which is why I offered a 50% discount to any blogger who will follow and write about my picks throughout the season. The only condition was to follow all picks and not improvise every single week. You’ve failed to do so. You don’t owe me money. I don’t want your money. I’ll get you back to green with my picks and, when the season ends, you will be removed from the mailing list and won’t be welcome anymore. As far as the blogger discount is concerned – I’ll be smarter than that next time. No more blogger discount. Sorry, other bloggers. As far as I’m concerned, feel free to blame your favorite blogger.

    I wasn’t joking. I’ll be replying to every single post that features lies and rubbish as soon as I find the time.

    If you don’t want to lose everything you have (believe it or not, I don’t want that to happen to anyone – I know how it is, to have nothing), you will have to take a long-term approach and not improvise every single week. Oh, I’ll take this bet. Oh, I won’t take this bet. Oh, this guy is rubbish. Oh, the same guy is great only seven days later. Oh, I’ll take this bet tomorrow. Oh, this bet clashes with some other bet from a completely different type of service. Oh, I’ll just ignore one of those two. Why? I have no idea. But why not.

    I bet you’ll think of me in a few years, when you realise a thing or two about tipsters. At this moment in time, you and me live in completely different worlds, different on many levels. You think a tipster is rubbish if he has a break-even season or two, even if that comes after five, six or seven consecutive profitable seasons. I think a tipster is rubbish if he loses his entire betting bank and isn’t profitable in the long run. You think a tipster is great if he’s had a good weekend. I think a tipster is great if he’s had a good career so far and if he’s a fair guy and a hard worker. Good luck, mate. You’re gonna need it.

    Those who shit and spit on fair-play services that never had a losing season, that try and be fair to their clients even if it means less money for them deserve harsher words than these. I have better things to do though, but I might start a blog where I could write about my clients in the same manner they’re writing about my service. If I don’t, some poor guy could get a lot of wrong ideas about a lot of things. Let me say something to that poor guy – I hope you’re smarter than that.

    cheers,
    skeeve

  • A full reply can be found here.

    http://www.daily25.com/skeeve-picks-reply/

  • Tom

    The pinnacle issue,is this happening in asian view when you submit the wager and the little timer circle keeps rotating for a good 30 seconds+?

    I’m getting this a lot also, but to be fair I’ve never not had a bet accepted, even when at the bet limit. Odd none the less.

  • Asian view yep and yep. But for me it happened on a certain league and the price then moved and bet wasn’t taken, I then placed a bet on a different league and accepted straight away and then went back to the first league and had the long pause again.

    Looking like a weird technical issue and me jumping to conclusions as per usual.

  • Tom

    It is a bit suspect! Most annoying thing about it for me is that it takes so long that I miss the good odds on the next bet!

  • Vidar

    Have happened to me also a few times lately, in random leagues/sports. It just spins for 10-20 seconds, before being accepted. It is probably just a technical issue. The bet might be accepted instantly, it just takes a while before it is shown.

  • Vidar

    The rugby league (NRL) is starting now, will you be following any bets from Sportpunter there? Their record hasnĀ“t been good there lately, but I see they will have a new player-based model this year.

  • I never followed Sportpunter for NRL as they were terrible, I just followed onthepunt but it looks like they don’t have bets this season and Jonno has put work into a player based model, so I will jump in with limited stakes. This is more for a bit of fun and I’m not expecting to make much profit.

  • Vidar

    Thanks for your answer. I was thinking the exact same thing, so will give it a go too, with limited stakes.

  • Bryn

    Could it just be when a mass of people are trying to place the same bet that things get ‘jammed’. I have found this using Sportmarket Pro for some Gowi bets. Another reason why I place his later in the day and now rarely even look when he first sends the email.

  • potentially, had the same situation today on the international friendlies and after a very long wait the bets were accepted.