Feb 9th – Feb 15th
Midway through the week my profit had risen to just shy of $35,000. Before a very poor Soccer weekend returned it back to where it started. Add to that 8 horse races with all of my tips coming 2nd and it’s been another frustrating week. I have now bet over $1.5 Million and am at close to $30,000 profit. I stated that I would like to make $100,000 this first year, but after a great start, that is looking less and less likely each week. I will now hope for $50,000 profit and $50,000 worth of valuable lessons learnt in the world of gambling.
NHL has been a complete yo-yo this year, early on it was at -$7000 and then went on a great run to get into +$5000 and now it has crashed again to be at -$4,000. The NBA totals model continues to go extremely well with a consistent 5.9% POT for a $6,500 profit. As I mentioned earlier, Soccer lost a fair chunk over the weekend but the year to date is still very healthy with $15800 profit at 4.79%. Men’s Tennis keeps clawing back those massive losses we got at the Australian open and another month of similar results and we might unbelievably see it in profit for the year.
Total profit for the week was $342
Stats
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Total bet amount: $1,522,250.37
Profit/Loss: $29,024.48
POT: 1.9%
Bets Placed: 4,151
Won: 1,726
Lost: 2,277
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 147
Winning %: 43.1%
Profit per day: 29,024.48 / 230 = $126
Hi Steve we spoke on the sportpunter forum briefly – have you stuck with the method for the soccer of playing leagues that showed a >10% ROI in the past?
Have you dropped leagues if and when they have dipped below the 10% all time threshold?
Do you manage to get the prices, or on average very close to the prices in the spreadsheet every day?
Thanks
Hi Adam, yep, still betting only leagues over 10%. At the end of each month i check which leagues are still above 10% and will add or delete leagues.
Current total is now $338,494.00 $15,464.34 4.57%
The prices are always available and most of the time I will find better odds.
thanks for reply. How are you off for accounts – can you get on widely? Are you just talking about Aus books in general for better prices or are you using UK books – I’m pretty much restricted to “pro” books like pinnacle and betfair.
I do enjoy reading your blog – and a lot of my results (i.e. swings) have mirrored yours.
Would you offer any comment on the achieved 4.57% from the historic 10% ROI? Fascinating problem that I often find repeats itself…edge eroding, or something else?
I would say the majority of my bets would be at 188bet, sbo, pinnacle, vc and bet365. I have been limited at Stan and a few other books. Rarely get best prices at aussie books, sportingbet isnt too bad at times.
Yeah, I’m not sure why it isn’t higher, a few reasons could be.
1. I started betting all leagues before I added these filters and was down a bit, so the ROI with the filters will be slightly higher.
2. The results history is over many years, whereas mine is over 8 months
3. My filters not only include leagues that are over 10%, but also minimum overlays, whereas the results history is recording all bets, which might mean i should not bother with any min overlays.
If it continues at 5% then i’ll be ecstatic.
Thanks, it’s good to know i’m not the only one reading this. Do you have any suggestions on what I could add to my posts, should i be breaking down each sport each week with total profit and losses, or is this general post fine?
I think a breakdown would be great and would add to the blog, breaking down by sport regularly.
365 allowing you ok stakes for horseracing? I don’t think that will continue with the sorts of bets that formbet often advises, taking advantage of the 4/1 c4 offers etc, but you never know – they can be random with what they do.
I dare say minimum overlays wouldn’t affect long term ROI much since all they would be doing is filtering out very small bets? (in comparison to the other bets)? As you say, 5% ROI is perfectly acceptable!
Are you betting overs and unders on the same basis as well? (i.e. 10% historical ROI). Is it easy to split results based on totals betting in the soccer and moneyline betting? If so i think that would be good to see also.
Thanks for the responses.
I don’t bet on the 4/1 offers as I’m asleep when they are on. I place all back bets and set off the auto-betting programs and that’s it. I usually bet 200 on horses and for the last few months haven’t had a problem with them, I also have been betting soccer and tennis with them and so far “touch wood”, still no hassles.
Yep, over and unders are the same, but with more overlay settings, these are either on this site or on the sportpunter forum.
The stats are as follows:
Soccer H2H $119,475.00 $6,677.55 5.6%
Over Soccer $63,282.00 $3,272.89 5.2%
Under Soccer $155,737.00 $5,513.90 3.5%