Daily25 Betting Blog http://www.daily25.com Trying to make $250 per day with sports betting Tue, 27 Jan 2015 04:16:36 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1 Jan 21st – Jan 27th -$48.83 http://www.daily25.com/jan-21st-jan-27th-48-83/ http://www.daily25.com/jan-21st-jan-27th-48-83/#comments Tue, 27 Jan 2015 04:16:36 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2332 y far the smallest weekly profit or loss ever posted. There won’t be an update next week as I will be recovering from the Superbowl. I think in the past 4.6 years I have only...

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superbowlBy far the smallest weekly profit or loss ever posted. There won’t be an update next week as I will be recovering from the Superbowl. I think in the past 4.6 years I have only missed 2 or 3 weekly updates. In two days I fly off to the states for a really amazing trip. I’ll be heading to the Phoenix Open (Golf), a Phoenix Suns (NBA) game, a Phoenix Coyotes (NHL) game, and the Superbowl. One of my bucket list items was to see all 4 american sports. I have been to a couple of MLB games and an NFL game before, but the NBA and NHL games will complete that quest. I’ll be uploading images and tweeting the entire trip via my twitter page , so follow me if you want to live vicariously through me for a week. I’m not sure I will even get to place many bets, but will endeavor to do my best, as massive profit jumps can come at anytime and I wouldn’t want to miss an amazing week. But, as always, living life is much more important and I want to enjoy the trip, so if I miss bets, then so be it. The results will mean very little in the long term. Placing the bets should not be an issue as I will leave my computers running at home and use TeamViewer to log into them.

The Daily25 Forum has been growing nicely. After it’s first week we have 74 members and some pretty interesting topics. One of those topics is asking what to do when multiple tipsters pick against each other. This is also a question I have always struggled with myself and I chop and change on this all the time. I used to simply back everything as if they were completely independent events, but felt that all I was doing was giving the bookies 5% ROI for no reason at all. After this I moved to just following whichever bet came out first. This meant I was not following the best tipster, but the one who posted earliest. Now as I wait for most tipster to release the tips first, I look to take advantage of the price moves that ensue after the picks are released. This week I had a perfect example. Football Investor combo system had Port Value as it’s only play, his recorded odds on the match was $1.95. The Football Analyst thought differently and had 3 system bets on Crewe at odds of $4.02. Normally I would pick Football Investor over TFA, but the odds guided me this time, as Port Vale were only available at 1.85 and Crewe were a very nice $4.34. So I left the $1,000 bet on Port Vale and bet the $1,500 on Crewe. There were a number of potential outcomes, but luckily for me the most optimal one came in with Crewe winning 1-0 and added $5,010 profit and also saving an extra $1,000 by not backing the Football Investor pick. The other option is to just leave the bets and this makes sense too. It’s a tough one, but there are some good replies in the thread. If you do it differently, than let us know.

A slow week for Sportpunter as the NFL had a break before the Superbowl and the NHL have their all star weekend. The NHL had a few bets before the break and lost $1,000. The NBL has been a complete disaster the last month and line bets alone have lost over $20,000 in the last 2 weeks. This week the totals made $3,050, but those line bets lost $10,000. I am now $11,000 down for the NBL season with only a few rounds to go. A very disappointing result.

ClubGowi official bets lost $1,400 but the few unofficial blue type bets I could get on made $3,700. I really do not like these bets as they are even more difficult to get quoted odds than the red type bets. Both Golf tipsters lost a total of $550.

Onto the football and Mike from Winabobatoo has been in hospital this week so there were no bets. While I have issues with the service, I wish Mike a speedy recovery. Football Elite made $2,300, TFA made $5,300 (thanks to Crewe), and Football Investor lost $450. My own bets lost $1,200.

So I wish you all adieu for the next fortnight. The reason I put in all the effort placing and recording bets every week is for these type of trips. I love to travel and I love sport, so for me there is nothing better than a sporting holiday with a few mates. I will miss my family immensely, but skype is a decent substitute. Enjoy the next fortnight, I know I will.

Total Loss for the week was $48.83

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $4,275,453.93
Profit/Loss: $59,845.35
POT: 1.40%
Bets Placed: 6212
Won: 2167
Lost: 2935
Half Payout: 48
Refunded: 1062
Winning %: 42.5%
Total profit per day: $407,370.19 / 1672 = $243.64
Total Turnover: $18,618,197.30
Total ROI: 2.19%

NBL Totals $67,917.00 $(6,592.94) -9.7%
week profit/loss: 3059.90

NBL Line $165,707.00 $(4,736.04) -2.9%
week profit/loss: -9945.00

NFL Totals $130,134.00 $17,204.29 13.2%
week profit/loss: 0

NFL Line $71,319.00 $(263.08) -0.4%
week profit/loss: 0

NHL Totals $189,307.00 $26,034.59 13.8%
week profit/loss: -1024.16

ClubGowi $480,475.00 $6,894.71 1.4%
week profit/loss: -1375

GOWI $17,326.00 $2,516.03 14.5%
week profit/loss: 3716.03

PCG $206,031.00 $(4,284.23) -2.1%
week profit/loss: 0

Jason Kelly Golf $10,991.93 $(8,743.53) -79.5%
week profit/loss: -175

Betswot $9,223.00 $(7,468.00) -81.0%
week profit/loss: -375

FB Elite $125,011.00 $8,651.50 6.9%
week profit/loss: 2310

Football Value $38,000.00 $(7,525.00) -19.8%
week profit/loss: 0

TFA 21 $217,745.00 $1,977.20 0.9%
week profit/loss: 1220

TFA 41 $211,276.00 $(1,052.00) -0.5%
week profit/loss: -1520

6-21-31 $123,657.00 $12,111.22 9.8%
week profit/loss: 1600

D1-D6 $73,000.00 $2,895.00 4.0%
week profit/loss: 120

E1-E6 $63,540.00 $23,682.40 37.3%
week profit/loss: 3902.40

Mike Lindley $53,000.00 $(2,194.50) -4.1%
week profit/loss: 0

WINABOBATOO $206,979.00 $(4,434.68) -2.1%
week profit/loss: 0

FBI combo $99,500.00 $17,859.00 17.9%
week profit/loss: 0

FBI Euro $116,142.00 $20,113.00 17.3%
week profit/loss: -450

Odds pushed out $26,750.00 $6,428.00 24.0%
week profit/loss: 75

Personal $29,485.00 $(6,919.21) -23.5%
week profit/loss: -1188

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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Jan 14th – Jan 20th -$10,483.34 http://www.daily25.com/jan-14th-jan-20th-10483-34/ http://www.daily25.com/jan-14th-jan-20th-10483-34/#comments Tue, 20 Jan 2015 01:41:44 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2325 his week saw me hit a new high of $80,000 before dropping $20,000 on Sunday thanks mostly to NBL and the late Soccer bets. If 4 and a half years ago I was told that...

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This week saw me hit a new high of $80,000 before dropping $20,000 on Sunday thanks mostly to NBL and the late Soccer bets. If 4 and a half years ago I was told that I would lose $20,000 in a single day on numerous occasions, I would never have started. Now a loss like that has very little impact. I guess it’s like building a muscle, you keep hurting (tearing) it, but it rebuilds stronger than before. The same with these constant big losses, at first they hurt (A lot), but over time, each one hurts that little bit less. It’s a case of getting through that initial stage that hurts a hell of a lot, sadly most people give up and that’s why they don’t have the physique they want or the profit from betting they crave.

Before jumping into the results I’d like to mention the forum is now set up. It needs a lot of work (design wise), but you can join and start posting right now. I hope to see some great content come out of the forum and I hope some of us “old” guys can help out the newbies. Don’t be shy to post what you think is a stupid question, we all started at the beginning and none of us would be where we are without help along the way. I did receive some emails from people willing to moderate the forum, but what I will do for now is moderate it myself and see who are the most active members of the forum and I’ll tap them on the shoulder in the coming months and ask if they would like to take over moderating it. Go sign up now.

Onto the weeks results and the NBL had another disaster week with $11,800 lost and that means we are sitting on a loss for the season. This model is always going to have extremely high variance from season to season with only 20 rounds and maybe 100-150 bets per season. The NFL season ends in 2 weeks (and I’ll be there). This weeks playoff games returned $2,100. The NHL was up a heap early in the week but the last few days have been a disaster, it managed to make a $900 profit though.

ClubGOWI made $4,300 this week between official and unofficial plays. Even though I have paid for a year in advance, I am contemplating dropping the service as the odds recording (especially now with blue selections), has become even worse. As mentioned before though, it is a great resource for betting the opposite when the odds are pushed out, this week added $850 profit and after 50 picks (very small sample size), I am sitting on a 24.7% ROI. I am flat staking only $500 per bet on these, but the limits are very high on these markets.

Both Golf tipsters lost a combined $900 this week. Really hope I can get a few big winners soon, it’s been a real drain lately. Golf really is the perfect example of long term betting. Even with an edge, you can go a very very long time between drinks.

Onto the Soccer and we had the good and the bad this week. TFA was great with $7,700 profit and all 5 systems I follow are in profit for the season. The rest were pretty bad. The worst was Football Elite with 0 wins, 7 losses and a push for -$7,000. Football Value lost $1,000, Winabobatoo lost $2,000 and Football Investor lost $3,050.

Just one of those weeks really, These are always easier to take when you are giving back some of the profits. No idea why though, $10,000 is $10,000 every time. Don’t forget to join the forum. Until next week.

Total Loss for the week was $10,483.34

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $4,197,320.93
Profit/Loss: $59,894.18
POT: 1.43%
Bets Placed: 6095
Won: 2136
Lost: 2880
Half Payout: 47
Refunded: 1032
Winning %: 42.6%
Total profit per day: $407,419.02 / 1665 = $244.69
Total Turnover: $18,540,064.30
Total ROI: 2.20%

NBL Totals $64,506.00 $(9,652.84) -15.0%
week profit/loss: -1098

NBL Line $155,762.00 $5,208.96 3.3%
week profit/loss: -10,714

NFL Totals $130,134.00 $17,204.29 13.2%
week profit/loss: 682.50

NFL Line $71,319.00 $(263.08) -0.4%
week profit/loss: 1441.50

NHL Totals $181,085.00 $27,058.75 14.9%
week profit/loss: 892.16

ClubGowi $466,383.00 $8,269.71 1.8%
week profit/loss: 2175.50

GOWI $12,201.00 $(1,200.00) -9.8%
week profit/loss: 2160

PCG $206,031.00 $(4,284.23) -2.1%
week profit/loss: 0

Jason Kelly Golf $10,816.93 $(8,568.53) -79.2%
week profit/loss: -575

Betswot $8,848.00 $(7,093.00) -80.2%
week profit/loss: -350

FB Elite $119,011.00 $6,341.50 5.3%
week profit/loss: -7000

Football Value $38,000.00 $(7,525.00) -19.8%
week profit/loss: -1000

TFA 21 $211,245.00 $757.20 0.4%
week profit/loss: 2108

TFA 41 $203,276.00 $468.00 0.2%
week profit/loss: 4793

6-21-31 $120,657.00 $10,511.22 8.7%
week profit/loss: 2691

D1-D6 $71,500.00 $2,775.00 3.9%
week profit/loss: 1545

E1-E6 $58,940.00 $19,780.00 33.6%
week profit/loss: -3390

Mike Lindley $53,000.00 $(2,194.50) -4.1%
week profit/loss: -1889

WINABOBATOO $206,979.00 $(4,434.68) -2.1%
week profit/loss: -138

FBI combo $98,500.00 $17,859.00 18.1%
week profit/loss: 1340

FBI Euro $111,142.00 $20,563.00 18.5%
week profit/loss: -4392

Odds pushed out $25,750.00 $6,353.00 24.7%
week profit/loss: 845

Personal $28,297.00 $(5,731.21) -20.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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Potential Daily25 Forum? http://www.daily25.com/potential-daily25-forum/ http://www.daily25.com/potential-daily25-forum/#comments Wed, 14 Jan 2015 03:11:25 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2316 For years I have thought about opening a forum on this site. The actual process of creating the forum is easy, but running a forum takes a lot of time and effort, something I do...

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For years I have thought about opening a forum on this site. The actual process of creating the forum is easy, but running a forum takes a lot of time and effort, something I do not have. But over the last week, a few things have happened that have made me think again about starting a forum here. I’ll explain what happened last week and then float my idea at the end of this article.

On last weeks post there were a number of comments about the SBC (Secret Betting Club), deleting all the posts from one of their forums. The SBC is a paid service that puts out a magazine once a month. I would visit the forum once a month and did enjoy reading the threads in the now deleted forum.

A reader and SBC member, Pete wrote:

Hi Steve,

I would be interested in your view on the SBC decision to close the “betting discussion” part of their forum. In case you are unaware, on 5th January they sent an email out to members stating –

“To help us implement some of the improvements to the SBC service for 2015, we have also made the decision to remove the Betting Discussion section of the SBC Forum later today. Analysis has revealed that less than 3% of all active members are actually using this section of the forum and we feel the resources allocated to its moderation are best utilised elsewhere. It is not a decision we have arrived at lightly, but one which will allow us to spend more time working on projects that will benefit a much larger section of SBC members.”

With less than 24 hours notice, literally thousands of postings were removed from the site, including some very interesting and useful discussion on bankroll, odds comparison & how to deal with losing runs. Valuable records of personal experiences with dozens of tipster services have been removed, along with everything else ever posted on the forum. Personally, I was an infrequent poster on the board, but a regular visitor, and access to that board was one of the primary reasons I paid my membership fee.

It seems more than a little coincidental that this has occurred in the midst of a truly awful run from the SBC partner-tipster George Dempsey. Once again, I am not a member of that particular service so I am not in a position to know if that criticism was justified or not. However, I do know it was there, indeed it was very prominent, and I feel it must have had some impact on the decision to not only close the forum, but to delete all the previous posts as well.

I do not feel that it is unfair to compare this to some of the “tipsters” we know who delete all negative feedback and in some cases conveniently forget to record losing selections. This is the exact type of service that the SBC was setup to help punters avoid.

It seems to me that the SBC were only too happy to moderate the forum when George was the “Golden-Boy”. Now variance has come home to roost, they have realised that negative feedback on the service may adversely affect the sign-ups for future SBC-tipster partnerships and have conveniently removed any record of said feedback.

You can go to the post and read over the whole conversation, Rowan who writes for SBC had things to say in response and some others also voiced their points of view. Personally I could not care less, I rarely visited the forum and Pete (the owner of SBC) has the right to do whatever he wants with his business. If a member doesn’t like it, they can always leave. To show how much I knew about the SBC, I had no idea they were selling their own services on the site. I always assumed they were a proofing site.

This brings up my only criticism. If you are a proofing site and also run your own tipping site than I can see a conflict of interest there. I’m not very good at analogies, but to me it is like the food and safety people opening their own restaurant, or the police policing themselves. I can also see it from a business perspective. A proofing site alone probably does not pay the bills, and with years of experience, the SBC would know what makes a really good service. So why not create something that would get top marks if they were to proof their own tipsters? They have worked for years to get a big user base of people who are known to pay for services, so why not sell them a service.

I did the same thing with this site, this site generates $0 but is a pretty good resource for many punters. With my years of experience in what makes a great service, and my contacts made over that time, I created what I feel is the best possible tipster site (Dailyprofit.com.au). The Dailyprofit service allows me to write content for this site. The more I write and help readers, the more likely they will see value in the Dailyprofit service and the more money is generated which frees me up to write more content. It’s a very symbiotic relationship.

I did find it strange that the entire forum would be deleted. I felt a better alternative would be to have closed it down (not allow any new posts), but leave up all past posts. This would show that the SBC was transparent. Like the original poster Pete said, deleting damning posts is akin to a tipster removing losing bets from his results. I have no idea what was written in those posts as I never had a chance to read them. After emailing Pete (SBC), he said he had made sure his website guy had kept a copy of all old posts, and may put up the old forum. I think this would be the right thing to do as there was also some useful content in a lot of those posts.

Pete did email me with his response to this situation and it is reproduced in full below.

Pete (SBC Owner) reply:

Hi,

I was made aware of the posts on here about the forum so thought I would respond to a few comments.

I have actually only received 4 emails asking about the forum since the decision was made – not exactly underlining it as the essential place some would have you believe.

The removal of the forum was a long-term decision based on about a year of consideration. I had hoped the new SBC site and forum design last year would help improve interaction on the forum, but sadly that was not the case. If anything it just got worse and I got a few complaints about the lack of interaction.

I decided to re-asses the forums usefulness at the start of the New Year and when the opportunity came to replace it with the Bet Diary written by Rowan, this made even more sense. Feedback from members has told me the Practical Punter reports he has penned is much more valued so I wanted to expand into this area.

It is not as some question a decision based on George’s form. All premium services go through good and bad times and George isnt the first (and won’t be the last on that front). Every member of that service can access daily updated results which are included in each email. Its a shame this takes centre stage, especially given the fact some of the other premium guys continue to do well long-term, yet the form of the likes of Andre Gomes gets very little mention.

The actual decision was based on a few factors including…

  • The lack of interaction on the forum – around 2 to 3 new posts each week. Hardly marking it out as an essential resource
  • The fact that numerous threads often descended into people falling out with each other. The forum had certainly gone from a friendly place to having more than its fair share of aggravation – something others have commented on.
  • I also felt that numerous posts also lacked a lot of balance or fairness. Not really adding much value.
  • The legal issues when people posted up about things such as the usage of bet brokers (SBC would be ultimately liable for anything posted – a serious concern).

All combined it made sense to remove it and its posts.

Betting forums in general are very tricky to get right. They are either totally out of control (Betfair) or heavily moderated. Neither route was one I wanted to go down, especially the latter for various reasons, including the best use of time.

Thanks, Pete

So should I create a forum?

That leads us to the main point of this post. Would a forum on this site be a valuable resource? I believe it would. There would be a general chat area and an area for members of different tipping sites to express their opinion.  The issue is, I have no want or time to do anything more then set up the forum.

I am looking for two things.

  1. Your thoughts. Let me know if you want a forum on this site.
  2. A few people who would be happy to be moderators of the forum. I believe I would need at least 3 moderators.

Just let me know in the comments below, if there is no response than that’s cool. It will save me a lot of time and effort. If it’s something you want, make your voice heard below.

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Jan 7th – Jan 13th +$40,513.06 http://www.daily25.com/jan-7th-jan-13th-40513-06/ http://www.daily25.com/jan-7th-jan-13th-40513-06/#comments Tue, 13 Jan 2015 01:35:45 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2308 ast week I said that 2015 had not gotten off to the best start. How quickly that can change. When almost all tipsters have a great week, these are the sort of returns I can...

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Last week I said that 2015 had not gotten off to the best start. How quickly that can change. When almost all tipsters have a great week, these are the sort of returns I can expect. These are very very rare weeks, but I take the time now to appreciate them as I know how fleeting they are. Not only was this one of those rare weeks, but it also pushed me once again to the place where I will stay for only a few days each year. That place is known as the “max profit ever” place. So right this very instant, I am sitting on the highest profit level I have ever been at. That currently stands at $417,902.36. From my own research I know I only have a few days out of every year where this is true. In the past 6 months, it has only happened 3 times. Punters assume they should always be making profit and see their highest profit amount as their baseline, this leads to them thinking they are constantly losing, which leads them to make mistakes, which then leads to them really losing and giving up.

Many newer readers may also wonder why the site is called Daily25. It was my goal when I started to simply make $25 a day from betting (close to $10,000 a year). That was quickly changed to trying to make $250 a day (or $100,000 a year). Today is the first day that has actually happened. I have been betting for 1,658 days and have made an average of $252.05 per day. Pretty good going, considering that after 425 days of betting i was sitting on a loss.

Last weeks post also received a few comments about the deleting of all the threads in certain SBC forums. I will talk about that in the coming days and also post Dave’s (the owners) thoughts on the matter.

Onto this weeks mammoth profit and as always we start with Sportpunter. Last week Sportpunter services lost over $22,000. This week they made $16,300. The NBL made a comeback with $7,700 profit, the NFL had only a few bets for $400 profit and the NHL came back strong with $8,200 profit.

ClubGOWI lost $4,000 this week and my long term bet on Denver is dead. I’ll have to pick another team to cheer on at the Superbowl. ClubGowi sits at $2,700 profit for the past 6 and a half months. That’s 5 units profit from 926 units bet. Nothing like the results shown on the website. PCG lost $250 and Jason Kelly started the new Golf season with a $250 loss.

It has taken 4 and a half long long years, but my Soccer tipsters have really hit their stride this season. I’m really happy to report on them this season as I really like the guys who run Football Elite, Football Investor and TFA. Really glad to see them performing. This week we had Football Elite with $2,900 profit, Football Investor with $9,600 profit and TFA with $19,000 profit (WOW). Football Value lost $700, and Winabobatoo lost $600. My own personal soccer selections lost $1,600.

A fantastic week and a big boost to 2015. If the past 4 years are any indication, we should see a good run over the next few months, but if the past 4 and a half years has taught me anything, it’s that you just never know with this game.

Total profit for the week was $40,513.06

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $4,070,776.93
Profit/Loss: $70,377.52
POT: 1.73%
Bets Placed: 5912
Won: 2084
Lost: 2791
Half Payout: 47
Refunded: 990
Winning %: 42.7%
Total profit per day: $417,902.36 / 1658 = $252.05
Total Turnover: $18,413,520.30
Total ROI: 2.27%

NBL Totals $60,573.00 $(8,554.84) -14.1%
week profit/loss: 5187.95

NBL Line $145,048.00 $15,922.96 11.0%
week profit/loss: 2536.82

NFL Totals $129,384.00 $16,521.79 12.8%
week profit/loss: 0

NFL Line $69,819.00 $(1,704.58) -2.4%
week profit/loss: 398.14

NHL Totals $163,792.00 $26,166.59 16.0%
week profit/loss: 8195.10

NBA Totals $283,713.00 $8,201.29 2.9%
week profit/loss: 0

NBA H2H $181,212.00 $(7,683.57) -4.2%
week profit/loss: 0

ClubGowi $451,646.00 $6,094.21 1.3%
week profit/loss: -3897.75

GOWI $10,951.00 $(3,360.00) -30.7%
week profit/loss: 0

PCG $206,031.00 $(4,284.23) -2.1%
week profit/loss: -267.20

Jason Kelly Golf $10,241.93 $(7,993.53) -78.0%
week profit/loss: -245

Betswot $8,498.00 $(6,743.00) -79.3%
week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $111,011.00 $13,341.50 12.0%
week profit/loss: 2920

Football Value $35,000.00 $(6,525.00) -18.6%
week profit/loss: -720

TFA 21 $200,745.00 $(1,350.80) -0.7%
week profit/loss: 5000

TFA 41 $191,276.00 $(4,325.00) -2.3%
week profit/loss: 3130

6-21-31 $114,857.00 $7,820.22 6.8%
week profit/loss: 4175

D1-D6 $68,000.00 $1,230.00 1.8%
week profit/loss: -1820

E1-E6 $53,940.00 $23,170.00 43.0%
week profit/loss: 8505

Mike Lindley $49,500.00 $305.50 0.6%
week profit/loss: 815

WINABOBATOO $198,979.00 $(4,296.68) -2.2%
week profit/loss: -1400

FBI combo $91,500.00 $16,519.00 18.1%
week profit/loss: 1670

FBI Euro $102,000.00 $24,955.00 24.5%
week profit/loss: 7930

Odds pushed out $24,750.00 $5,508.00 22.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Personal $28,297.00 $(5,731.21) -20.3%
week profit/loss: -1600

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

The post Jan 7th – Jan 13th +$40,513.06 appeared first on Daily25 Betting Blog.

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Dec 31st – Jan 6th -$9,735.92 http://www.daily25.com/dec-31st-jan-6th-9735-92/ http://www.daily25.com/dec-31st-jan-6th-9735-92/#comments Tue, 06 Jan 2015 08:25:34 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2303 015 has not started well at all. An absolute shocking week for Sportpunter somewhat salvaged by the football tipsters. Lots of articles coming in the next few weeks, my wrap up of 2014, what I...

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2015 has not started well at all. An absolute shocking week for Sportpunter somewhat salvaged by the football tipsters. Lots of articles coming in the next few weeks, my wrap up of 2014, what I see happening in 2015 and a few other random articles. This site has taken a back seat to the Dailyprofit service and Sporting Karma in the second half of 2014. I will look to give it the love and attention it deserves in 2015.

Onto the Sportpunter losses this week and we had another loss with the NBL. $4,300 lost this week, but I saved about $4,000 by missing a bet as I was at a 1st birthday party. I’m hoping these parties save me this much each time, as they are SO boring and $4,000 seems about a fair trade off for dealing with others kids all day. The NFL season is drawing to a close and both line bets lost (-$2,000). Hoping Denver can get up next week and the week after as I have a season long bet on them. I received my flights and itinerary for the Super Bowl today and just requested upgrades to business class using my remaining frequent flyer points for me and Jonno (Sportpunter) and another mate. Sadly my million FF points are all nearly gone, but they did allow me to fly Business and First Class over the last few years. I will miss them dearly. NBA is over for another season (for me anyway). Traditionally the model just doesn’t perform in the new year, it’s a shame the rot started a week early. $10,300 lost this week to bring the total return to just over break even. Really disappointing end as it started so well. Looking forward to the day the player model is introduced. The usually reliable NHL model rounded out the horrendous week with a $5,700 loss to bring the total Sportpunter loss this week to $22,332. OUCH.

ClubGOWI had a return to form with $1,400 profit and PCG made $2,000. I have cancelled my subscription to the service as it just wasn’t working for me. I’m sure Tom will continue to do well for PCG members for many years to come.

Football Elite lost $1,000, Football Value made $2,400, TFA lost $1,400, Winabobatoo made $700, and Football Investor (Combo and Euro) made an impressive $11,000. Geez I follow a lot of Soccer tipsters. Happily for me, this season they are in profit, nothing like the historical returns, but after years and years of losses, I’m just happy to be in front. Still half the season to go and the second half of the season has been profitable a few times.

Backing the opposite sides hurt this week with 3 losses from 3 for a $1,500 loss, but the other sides were huge odds and on multiple bets. My Personal picks lost $1,200 as well.

Not the start I was looking for going into the second half of my 5th year. I’ll be looking into the Tennis totals model for this season, even though the H2H bets have not performed, it seems the totals are a little more consistent. How quickly odds drop is always an issue with these smaller markets, so it might not be viable. But as always, we will test everything before putting it on the to hard pile. Until next week.

Total Loss for the week was $9,735.92

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $3,931,883.93
Profit/Loss: $29,864.46
POT: 0.76%
Bets Placed: 5731
Won: 2014
Lost: 2711
Half Payout: 46
Refunded: 960
Winning %: 42.6%
Total profit per day: $377,389.30 / 1651 = $228.58
Total Turnover: $18,274,627.30
Total ROI: 2.07%

NBL Totals $55,018.00 $(13,742.79) -25.0%
week profit/loss: 2481.60

NBL Line $137,123.00 $13,386.14 9.8%
week profit/loss: -6803.60

NFL Totals $129,384.00 $16,521.79 12.8%
week profit/loss: 0

NFL Line $67,049.00 $(2,102.72) -3.1%
week profit/loss: -1960

NHL Totals $140,144.00 $17,971.49 12.8%
week profit/loss: -5735.70

NBA Totals $283,713.00 $8,201.29 2.9%
week profit/loss: -6972.94

NBA H2H $181,212.00 $(7,683.57) -4.2%
week profit/loss: -3343.95

ClubGowi $432,946.00 $9,991.96 2.3%
week profit/loss: 1446.98

GOWI $10,951.00 $(3,360.00) -30.7%
week profit/loss: 0

PCG $202,581.00 $(4,017.03) -2.0%
week profit/loss: 1954

Jason Kelly Golf $9,996.93 $(7,748.53) -77.5%
week profit/loss: 0

Betswot $8,498.00 $(6,743.00) -79.3%
week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $102,011.00 $10,421.50 10.2%
week profit/loss: -1000

Football Value $31,000.00 $(5,805.00) -18.7%
week profit/loss: 2400

TFA 21 $191,745.00 $(6,350.80) -3.3%
week profit/loss: -40

TFA 41 $180,276.00 $(7,455.00) -4.1%
week profit/loss: -2525

6-21-31 $109,857.00 $3,645.22 3.3%
week profit/loss: 975

D1-D6 $64,000.00 $3,050.00 4.8%
week profit/loss: -1000

E1-E6 $46,940.00 $14,665.00 31.2%
week profit/loss: 1165

Mike Lindley $47,000.00 $(509.50) -1.1%
week profit/loss: 780

WINABOBATOO $193,479.00 $(2,896.68) -1.5%
week profit/loss: -55

FBI combo $87,500.00 $14,849.00 17.0%
week profit/loss: 3480

FBI Euro $88,000.00 $17,025.00 19.3%
week profit/loss: 7580

Odds pushed out $24,750.00 $5,508.00 22.3%
week profit/loss: 1500

Personal $26,697.00 $(4,131.21) -15.5%
week profit/loss: -1172.31

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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Dec 24th – Dec 30th -$7,958.24 http://www.daily25.com/dec-24th-dec-30th-7958-24/ http://www.daily25.com/dec-24th-dec-30th-7958-24/#comments Tue, 30 Dec 2014 05:33:00 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2298 hope you all had a very Merry Christmas or other season related holiday experience. My first Christmas as a dad was pretty awesome. Lots of presents and lots and lots of food. I also received...

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I hope you all had a very Merry Christmas or other season related holiday experience. My first Christmas as a dad was pretty awesome. Lots of presents and lots and lots of food. I also received the most dad related gifts possible, socks, undies, and a whipper snipper. It also felt like Christmas for my betting bank, as the night before I hit the $400,000 profit mark. But the Betting Grinches came back hard just a few days later and on my birthday no less. I’m not sure anyone has received a worse present than a $30,000 loss on their special day. It seems a lot of you guys bought yourself the best possible gift this year, a subscription to the dailyprofit service. It’s been one hell of a year. I’ll hope to get a yearly review out and some predictions for 2015 early in the new year.

We will start a little differently this week. Firstly a bug bear of mine is when tipsters only ever mention the positives, even when losing. Last week on Twitter I mentioned a great NFL day (we went 10-2), I was also happy to post this week when we went a shocking 4-6. If you’re happy to boast about the 1 good day, then you better be ready to let people know when you’re shit, and for most of these guys posting only winning days, they have a heap more losing ones. That brings me onto Keith and last nights email. It’s safe to say he has not had the best month. These months happen, I’m 100% sure we will see 3 or 4 of them for my service next season. That’s gambling. But I really hate the emails after a loss blaming everything else. I won’t reproduce the email here as it isn’t my property, but the general sentiment was.. “Boy were we unlucky last night, our teams were much better, hit the woodwork ,fumbled, so on and blah blah it isn’t me to blame.” Now if Keith had watched the NFL game we had bet on, like I had, he would have seen we were lucky to even get close, and for the Soccer game he was referring to. Let me put up the stats and you decide which team looked more likely to win (hint: ClubGOWI members bet on the other team).

middstats

In my opinion, I would have a little more respect for tipsters if they just carried on after a loss or were honest and just said “man, we lost last night, it happens.” But I have come to accept that the ClubGowi service does not like to show anything but positive (so positive in fact, it’s unbelievable) results. Each to their own really, but as long as readers understand that this seems to be a general practice among tipsters and they really do a lot of research before joining any service. 2015 is going to really piss off a lot of tipster and be an absolute god send to punters who like to follow them, as I will be releasing a new addition to this site. For those few honest tipsters (I follow many of them), this will also shed a light on your fantastic efforts in transparency and honesty.

OK, my last rant for 2014. Boy have I had some great rants this year. Let’s start the week with Sportpunter. The NBL has been a real disappointment this year, only because last season I made $50,000 from it. This week we lost $1,450. The last week of the NFL season produced a $4,750 loss and many people (me included) might think betting the last round in any sport is silly, as motivation becomes a factor. From what I have seen over the years, the results in these final rounds are just as good as any other round in the season. NHL totals has been amazing all season long, a further $6,200 profit this week brings the season ROI to 19%. NBA lost $1,200 and this is traditionally the time of year I pack up my ball and go home for this sport. I am hoping Jonno converts to the team based model so I can continue on next year.

After my ClubGowi blast, once again I did well only placing selected bets and made $1,800. PCG lost $2,000 and I believe this is my last month following Toms service. Tom isn’t completely to blame for me quitting, but my location, the odds recording and the rather poor results (official email selections) over the last season have helped my decision. I have what I believe to be a much better model with the Sportpunter service so do not need two sets of bets on the same sports. The service is cheap and I do believe if you are based in the UK/Europe or States and can’t afford the very expensive SP service, over the long term there should be profit to be made with PCG. Not all tipping services will suit everyone, I gave this one a good go, but my own circumstances made it untenable.

This season, most of the time I have been very lucky when the odds have not rebounded on a big bet. I do not have exact figures, but I believe I have saved a small fortune. But I still hate when I miss a bet on multiple systems and the odds on the other team become value and the big bet wins. That happened this morning with Brighton. I also managed to get on a lot of bets inplay this week which went onto draw. A number of draws really hurt TFA this week and at half time, it was looking like a very profitable week. Instead the service lost $7,700 this week. Football Elite didn’t do any better losing $3,000. A big surprise was Winabobatoo, it is usually correlated with TFA, but this week it made $2,200 profit. Football Investor made $1,100. My own method of backing opposing teams when their odds are pushed out by tipsters returned another $1,100 this week and over a very small sample of 44 bets is at 30.1% ROI. It seems I should have kept my mouth shut about these as since I introduced the idea, there have been hardly any opportunities. Lesson learnt and next time when I discover a new method, I think I will keep it to myself. Silly me for being so open.

Just one final post about the Dailyprofit service. Prices will rise Jan 1st as the service is about 1/3rd the price it should be. Even more so if you are from the UK or Europe, once the $33 AUD for Sportpunter picks is converted, it’s like the cost of 3 beers per month. I have noticed some price movements on selections recently and may have to cap members. In 2015 we will keep an eye on things but it appears it will be like every nightclub these days (1 in, 1 out), unless you are a smoking hot girl.

I hope you have an awesome new years eve and have had an amazing 2014 (I know I have). Here’s to an even better 2015.

Total Loss for the week was $7,958.24

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $3,800,649.93
Profit/Loss: $39,600.38
POT: 1.04%
Bets Placed: 5543
Won: 1972
Lost: 2622
Half Payout: 45
Refunded: 904
Winning %: 42.9%
Total profit per day: $387,125.22 / 1644 = $235.47
Total Turnover: $18,143,393.30
Total ROI: 2.13%

NBL Totals $49,512.00 $(16,224.39) -32.8%
week profit/loss: -340

NBL Line $128,210.00 $20,189.74 15.7%
week profit/loss: -1111.60

NFL Totals $129,384.00 $16,521.79 12.8%
week profit/loss: -4028.11

NFL Line $65,089.00 $(142.72) -0.2%
week profit/loss: -726.56

NHL Totals $124,895.00 $23,707.19 19.0%
week profit/loss: 6224.81

NBA Totals $271,620.00 $15,174.23 5.6%
week profit/loss: -598.59

NBA H2H $174,856.00 $(4,339.62) -2.5%
week profit/loss: -627.81

ClubGowi $422,321.00 $8,544.98 2.0%
week profit/loss: 1801.06

GOWI $10,951.00 $(3,360.00) -30.7%
week profit/loss: 0

PCG $200,581.00 $(5,971.03) -3.0%
week profit/loss: -2000

Jason Kelly Golf $9,996.93 $(7,748.53) -77.5%
week profit/loss: 0

Betswot $8,498.00 $(6,743.00) -79.3%
week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $99,011.00 $11,421.50 11.5%
week profit/loss: -3000

Football Value $30,000.00 $(8,205.00) -27.4%
week profit/loss: 0

TFA 21 $181,035.00 $(6,310.80) -3.5%
week profit/loss: -2440.50

TFA 41 $168,776.00 $(4,930.00) -2.9%
week profit/loss: -741

6-21-31 $102,857.00 $2,670.22 2.6%
week profit/loss: -1145

D1-D6 $62,500.00 $4,050.00 6.5%
week profit/loss: -3370

E1-E6 $46,440.00 $13,500.00 29.1%
week profit/loss: 0

Mike Lindley $43,000.00 $(1,289.50) -3.0%
week profit/loss: 204

WINABOBATOO $181,479.00 $(2,951.68) -1.6%
week profit/loss: 2060

FBI combo $83,500.00 $11,369.00 13.6%
week profit/loss: 3069

FBI Euro $85,000.00 $9,445.00 11.1%
week profit/loss: -1970

Odds pushed out $23,250.00 $7,008.00 30.1%
week profit/loss: 1067.50

Personal $21,875.00 $(2,958.90) -13.5%
week profit/loss: 0

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

The post Dec 24th – Dec 30th -$7,958.24 appeared first on Daily25 Betting Blog.

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Sportsbet dodgy EPL offer http://www.daily25.com/sportsbet-dodgy-epl-offer/ http://www.daily25.com/sportsbet-dodgy-epl-offer/#comments Fri, 26 Dec 2014 02:35:56 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2280 Now I don’t usually bother posting up all the dodgy stuff bookies do every single day. I would be posting non stop. But this one tickled my funny bone in how blatantly horrible it was....

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Now I don’t usually bother posting up all the dodgy stuff bookies do every single day. I would be posting non stop. But this one tickled my funny bone in how blatantly horrible it was. Also it allows me to also teach you a few things.

So Sportsbet Australia has the following two offers on their site.

Offer 1: Place a quick multi on Chelsea, Man U, Man City & Arsenal at the lovely odds of $3.50sbetoffer1

 

Offer 2: EPL Multi Special: Place a 4+ leg multibet on the win-draw-win market of any English Premier League match. If only one leg fails, we’ll refund your bet up to $100 CASH

sboffer2

Now let have a look at what odds we would get if we played this offer instead of the first one.

sbodds

Now let’s break down the possible results if we placed $100 on Offer 1 and 2.

Let’s say all 4 teams won.
On Offer 1 we would make $250 profit. On Offer 2 we would make $267 profit.

Let’s say 1 team lost.
Offer 1 we have a $100 loss, Offer 2 we get a $100 cash refund.

If 2 or more teams lost then we lose $100 on both bets.

The first question we need to ask ourselves is why would they have 2 separate offers on the exact same thing paying very different odds? I’m sure for any moron punter taking Offer 1, their accounts might be marked as mugs and they might receive a lot more bonus offers.

Here’s the lesson, don’t just assume because it is an “offer” or “Megabet” or “super special, best bet ever, hey we only want you to win” type deal that it means it is any good. In my many years of experience taking advantage of these types of offers, only 1 in 5 of these offers are profitable. The first thing you should have done when looking at Offer 1 was to check what the same odds would have been when doing it yourself, then you should have seen what the odds were at some other bookies.

If you were conned into taking Offer 1, I would suggest you ring up Sportsbet and ask them why they would cheat you so blatantly out of your money? I would then ask you to come back to this site and email me, as I have some amazing beans that will build a beanstalk to a castle in the sky filled with Golden Geese.

I also realise that most of you are busy guys and have better things to do than figure this sort of rubbish out. That’s why I created the Dailyprofit service. We go to the trouble of doing the maths for you and figuring out which offers are good and which ones (like Offer 1) are absolute rubbish. We then show you step by step what you need to do to make a profit. We have even trained monkeys to use our site, it’s that easy.

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Dec 17th – Dec 23rd +$3,595.23 http://www.daily25.com/dec-17th-dec-23rd-3595-23/ http://www.daily25.com/dec-17th-dec-23rd-3595-23/#comments Tue, 23 Dec 2014 08:03:51 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2274 weeks of profit now and it’s beginning to feel a lot like Christmas. The last two Decembers I have been in a big hole, while not an amazing return, I’m pretty happy to be sitting...

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5 weeks of profit now and it’s beginning to feel a lot like Christmas. The last two Decembers I have been in a big hole, while not an amazing return, I’m pretty happy to be sitting on a pretty nice profit this time around. Historically the next 5 months are very good to me, so I am hoping for the same sort of returns again for year 5. Would love to hit the $400,000 profit mark before the new year, but by now I know it is a meaningless number and it will reach that point whenever it decides too. It could be tomorrow or it could be in another 6 months. This week’s profit was pretty small, if not for a 3 pointer on the buzzer the profit would be $8,000 more, Damn insignificant 3’s.

That insignificant 3 was at the end of overtime in an NBL game. The team I was on held a 7 point lead and had the ball with 17 seconds left. They threw the ball out of bounds, the other team went down the other end and with no defense on them threw up a 3. My fault for watching the game. Instead of a $4,000 win, it was a $4,300 loss. The NBL model still returned a profit this week with $2,700 added. NFL had an amazing week and added $7,200 and there was some profit in the NBA for the first time in a while. It added $2,500 while the NHL added $200. Once again the Sportpunter model makes a motza.

Happily for Dailyprofit.com.au members, they also got to join in on a great weekend. On Monday morning we went 10-2 in the NFL, 2-0 on the NBA and 1-0 on the NHL, with the NHL bet being the first ever 1.5 unit play. NFL plays are always 1 unit and NBA plays usually 0.5 units. But 1 days results are meaningless and it’s long term we need to look at. Since inception a little over 4 months ago and with a suggested bank of 40 units ($4,000), the Sportpunter part of the service has made $2,570 profit at 7.8% ROI. The great thing is, the odds recorded are an average of 3 members and can easily be bettered with very little effort. I’m so happy with how this little service is coming along, we are building a great service here where prices are achievable in strong markets. I don’t like to talk myself up too much, but this is clearly the best service in the world for small punters. This season we are 54-39 in NFL bets, 10-6 in NHL bets and a pathetic 63-66 in NBA. The great thing is that the way I have structured the units means the loss in the NBA is much smaller as the bet sizes are smaller. With the Dailyprofit service, you not only get the greatest sports modeler in the world with Jonno, but you also get a half decent punter who can filter out certain bets and create a staking strategy that maximises returns. I feel it is the best value for money service in the world. It is so much value that prices need to go up in 2015. Currently the SP package is $33 a month, but from Jan 1st it will be $47. The Aussie Value and Risk free service will also see a rise in price. If you are an aussie then you need to join the VIP service, it is the perfect service for any punter in Australia starting out. If you are not from Australia then the Sportpunter service is easily the greatest tipping service in the world. Members will be locked into whatever payment they signed up at. So if you sign up before the new year, you will only ever pay $33 a month as long as you stay a member. Give yourself a great Christmas present and join well over 130 very happy members.

DPlogo

I hate to sell, but I see the value in this service for all of you. It really is a no brainer to join. We have even more enhancements coming in 2015, with video courses, an iphone app and some user guides. It will be the best punting decision you ever make.

OK, I feel a little dirty now, never have I sold something so hard, but I really believe it is an amazing thing I have created. Lets get onto the other results for this week.

ClubGowi slow and steady approach didn’t work so well, but once again, as I had opposing bets, I managed to miss some of the losses and ended up $750 in profit. PCG did not do well and I just don’t think this service is going to work for me, $1,100 lost this week and in the new year I will reevaluate if this service is going to work for me. Jason Kelly lost $125 and Betswot $185 with the Golf.

Sadly the Soccer did not continue its recent amazing run. Football Elite lost $2,600 and will not be getting that extra 100 pound bounty for Christmas. Football Value lost $1,000 but I missed a win on Malaga as Football Investor had the other side. TFA lost $6,400 and Winabobatoo lost $2,400. Football Investor made $600 and my own Personal bets made $3,300.

Another profitable week and I have no idea which direction the next big swing will be in. I’m hoping it is a massive upswing, but I’ve given up attempting to predict where my bank will go week to week. There will be one more post before the new year, so for now I will just wish you all a very Merry Christmas and I hope Santa is kind to you. Personally this will be my first Christmas as a dad and I am over the moon. MERRY CHRISTMAS.

Total Profit for the week was $3,595.23

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $3,624,551.93
Profit/Loss: $47,558.62
POT: 1.31%
Bets Placed: 5250
Won: 1889
Lost: 2472
Half Payout: 43
Refunded: 846
Winning %: 43.3%
Total profit per day: $395,083.46 / 1637 = $241.34
Total Turnover: $17,967,295.30
Total ROI: 2.2%

NBL Totals $46,512.00 $(15,884.39) -34.2%
week profit/loss: -75

NBL Line $125,643.00 $21,301.34 17.0%
week profit/loss: 2793.77

NFL Totals $118,032.00 $20,549.90 17.4%
week profit/loss: 5773.64

NFL Line $60,563.00 $869.28 1.4%
week profit/loss: 1470.42

NHL Totals $113,803.00 $17,482.38 15.4%
week profit/loss: 170.48

NBA Totals $254,547.00 $15,772.82 6.2%
week profit/loss: 986.01

NBA H2H $162,419.00 $(3,711.81) -2.3%
week profit/loss: 1527.77

ClubGowi $414,696.00 $6,743.92 1.6%
week profit/loss: 752.38

GOWI $10,951.00 $(3,360.00) -30.7%
week profit/loss: 0

PCG $198,581.00 $(3,971.03) -2.0%
week profit/loss: -1108

Jason Kelly Golf $9,996.93 $(7,748.53) -77.5%
week profit/loss: -125

Betswot $8,498.00 $(6,743.00) -79.3%
week profit/loss: -185

FB Elite $96,011.00 $14,421.50 15.0%
week profit/loss: -2590

Football Value $30,000.00 $(8,205.00) -27.4%
week profit/loss: -1000

TFA 21 $156,835.00 $(3,870.30) -2.5%
week profit/loss: -4138

TFA 41 $149,800.00 $(4,189.00) -2.8%
week profit/loss: 805

6-21-31 $89,357.00 $3,815.22 4.3%
week profit/loss: -2000

D1-D6 $53,000.00 $7,420.00 14.0%
week profit/loss: -230

E1-E6 $46,440.00 $13,500.00 29.1%
week profit/loss: -860

Mike Lindley $36,000.00 $(1,493.50) -4.1%
week profit/loss: -1000

WINABOBATOO $161,479.00 $(5,011.68) -3.1%
week profit/loss: -1396.50

FBI combo $75,500.00 $8,300.00 11.0%
week profit/loss: 4623

FBI Euro $81,000.00 $11,415.00 14.1%
week profit/loss: -4010

Odds pushed out $22,500.00 $5,940.50 26.4%
week profit/loss: 0

Personal $21,875.00 $(2,958.90) -13.5%
week profit/loss: 3287.26

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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Dec 10th – Dec 16th +$29,140.36 http://www.daily25.com/dec-10th-dec-16th-29140-36/ http://www.daily25.com/dec-10th-dec-16th-29140-36/#comments Tue, 16 Dec 2014 02:33:25 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2263 ou might want to save this weekly update and read it when you have a good 10 minutes. This one will cover a heap of stuff. It’s been an amazing week on many levels. The...

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You might want to save this weekly update and read it when you have a good 10 minutes. This one will cover a heap of stuff. It’s been an amazing week on many levels. The betting for one has taken off and for the first time ever it is Soccer that is adding all the profit. I was really contemplating dropping a lot of services this season, I’m glad I persevered. The tickets for my trip to the Superbowl are being booked today, two mates are making the trip with me and I am using my Frequent Flyer points to upgrade us all to Business Class (another perk from betting). Saturday also saw the release of Sporting Karma, my new website. In total we helped raise just shy of $20,000 (it may go over as more donations come in) for a local charity. The fact we created the product over two days and then had only 1 day to market it and we still managed to raise what is a massive amount makes me feel immensely proud. I see great things for this product in 2015. It’s been a very hectic 6 months and I will be slowing down until the new year. Time to reflect on a very big year and then make plans for 2015.

Saturday saw me at the Hawks game for Sporting Karma. We started by handing out flyers. I’ve never done that before and it’s damn hard to get people to take them. Getting people to do anything is really hard, but we handed out about 500 flyers. It was a pretty small crowd, but when your team is 2 from 12 for the season, you can understand why people don’t come. I had a large bet on the Hawks +2 so was cheering them on while inputting the live scores. Both teams knew that a lot of money was heading to charity based on how many points they scored and I thought it would be interesting to see how they dealt with this. At the start of the game, it looked like they were playing much quicker and trying to score a lot of points. But by the second quarter, they reverted to their low scoring average. The bookmakers had set the total points at 160 and it ended at 159 points, so knowing about the donations seemed to make no impact. It really looked like it was going to be a very low scoring affair, but the Hawks exploded in the last to score 31 points and take the win. Watching the donations head up on the Live score page was really cool, once we get some nice visualisation added it will be even better. We will be running the Prize draws tomorrow and then on Friday night, the winner will be presented with the Framed and Signed Hawks jersey at the game. We will spend the next month making everything work and look pretty and we will look to kick off 2015 with a massive prize pool for one of the opening NRL games. Let me know what sort of prizes or offers would make you want to donate, and we will try and get them in.

I came home Saturday night extremely satisfied but also very tired. I placed the bets where the odds had rebounded but there were a heap that had not, so I set an alarm for 20 minutes before kickoff and went to bed. Luckily I managed to wake up and place the remaining bets. I woke up to a massacre… for the bookies. $34,300 profit in 90 minutes. I love waking up and putting all the “Y”‘s in the Win column in my spreadsheet. It was more relief then anything else. Finally some breathing room for once. This year like others has been a real pain in the arse for the first 5 months. Who knows where I’ll end up on December 31st, but right now, I am very pleased with the current profit level.

Let’s get to the results. Last week when Football Elite had a poor week I said

That next target is looking very far off.

I was referring to the $20,000 target that would see me send him a further £100 payment. How wrong I was. $10,200 profit for the week and only $3,000 short of my third payment for the year. I’m hoping I not only pay the $20k bounty, but also the 30,40 and 50K ones.

Football Value has not done well at anytime this season, another $3,000 lost this week. This is my first year using the service and hopefully things can improve. I’m so happy for Graeme and the TFA model. A $17,300 profit this week and finally I can start praising the service again. Many of you stopped following this season because of mine and your own results. I did say that would be a mistake. The problem is, I’m sure most of you will now jump in again next season. It’s this exact sort of jumping in and out which causes the losses. You need to stick with models you believe in for the long term. If you only ever follow a service on the back of an amazing run and jump out after a poor one, you will end up on the tipster treadmill of doom until you run out of money. Winabobatoo has also had a great turnaround and is slowly digging itself out of a very large hole with $4,300 profit this week. Another replica of the last few weeks and we will be in profit with this (very hard to bet on) model. The Football Investors Combo and Euro bets also performed exceptionally, adding $5,500 profit. So an amazing week for Soccer and hopefully we see a similar pattern all the way till the season ends.

soccer

Onto the one Soccer tipster who has had an absolute nightmare few weeks. ClubGowi lost $5,400 for me this week, but had I bet all selections that would be over a $10,000 loss. Happily for me, many of his selections either went against other tipsters or the odds never recovered. Apart from the $6,000 Golf win from last season, for the past 5 and a bit months I am now break even with this service and would be at a substantial loss if I was able to get on all bets. This normally wouldn’t concern me, every tipster goes through troughs and peaks. What does concern me is how tipsters react to these good times and bad times. Lets compare and contrast the sort of reaction I like from a tipster. The last few seasons had not been great for Football Elite, but Mat simply said “These long term trends have been proven over many years, I’m not even going to filter them anymore”. He just stuck it out and pretty much said that over a very long term, the edge he has found will stay constant. Keith sent an email last night that worries me. This is the first real massive loss since I have been following his service, and I would have assumed the response would have been “Hey, losing runs happen. We will continue to do what we do and eventually the good times will come again”. But instead we get some worrying statements. Firstly that there have been a raft of losses that just couldn’t happen normally. For someone like Keith who has been around for a long time, surely he knows that Murphys law is a constant in betting. He does go on to say that anything can happen with betting. The most worrying sign for me is when a tipster decides to either ramp up or slow down after a losing run. My question is why? If you have a clear system that has worked for years, why does a short term trend affect your long term view? Ramping things up after a loss is a clear sign of chasing, Slowing down is a better response as it gives you time to look at what areas might be an issue, but it is not the best response. The best way to deal with a losing run is to keep going as you had planned from the start. Everyone will have their own opinions on how a tipster should react in these type of situations. I know how I will react if I see a similar downturn in my own service. Exactly the same way as if I had an amazing run or things had been going smoothly. I actually look forward to a sustained bad run for my service, as that will lead to the members who can’t deal with the ups and downs of betting to leave and will result in me only having members who understand what it takes to win long term. I have faith that the good times will roll again with this service, I also know there are some sports and leagues that he is terrible at, but without allowing anyone access to his record, we can not help him improve the service. I still hold that I will make a profit (0-3%ish) from this service long term.

Onto the other tipsters. Sportpunter NBA has been terrible over the last month. NBA H2H bets have lost a massive $9,200 this week. The Totals lost a further $1,400. NBL had a better week with $5,300 profit and the NHL Totals have been brilliant with $6,700 profit this week bringing the season long return to 17.8%. NFL lost $150.

PCG lost $2,300, Jason Kelly Golf lost $125, My own Personal bets made $200 and betting on opposite odds made $1,200.

It feels like creating Sporting Karma and giving something back has seen me receive some good Karma, since the idea was implemented, I’ve had nothing but winning weeks, won an all expenses paid trip to the Superbowl and many other good things have happened. Maybe there is something to this Karma thing.

Finally this week, The Dailyprofit service will be increasing prices from the new year. After looking around at what is currently available and the prices, it’s clear to see that I set the price way too low. All current members and those who sign up before the new year are grandfathered in and will continue to pay the initial price as long as they stay a member. For those joining in 2015 and beyond, the price will more reflect the quality of the service.

Total Profit for the week was $29,140.36

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $3,439,379.93
Profit/Loss: $43,963.39
POT: 1.28%
Bets Placed: 5005
Won: 1802
Lost: 2344
Half Payout: 43
Refunded: 816
Winning %: 43.5%
Total profit per day: $391,488.23 / 1630 = $240.17
Total Turnover: $17,782,123.30
Total ROI: 2.2%

NBL Totals $45,012.00 $(15,809.39) -35.1%
week profit/loss: -527

NBL Line $113,673.00 $18,507.57 16.3%
week profit/loss: 5816

NFL Totals $106,397.00 $14,776.26 13.9%
week profit/loss: 755.59

NFL Line $46,813.00 $(601.14) -1.3%
week profit/loss: -920.45

NHL Totals $97,146.00 $17,311.90 17.8%
week profit/loss: 6755.41

NBA Totals $224,911.00 $14,786.81 6.6%
week profit/loss: -1399.97

NBA H2H $140,254.00 $(5,239.58) -3.7%
week profit/loss: -9216.17

ClubGowi $407,571.00 $5,991.54 1.5%
week profit/loss: -5412.75

GOWI $10,951.00 $(3,360.00) -30.7%
week profit/loss: 0

PCG $187,181.00 $(2,863.03) -1.5%
week profit/loss: -2297.55

Jason Kelly Golf $9,996.93 $(7,748.53) -77.5%
week profit/loss: -125

Betswot $8,313.00 $(6,558.00) -78.9%
week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $88,011.00 $17,011.50 19.3%
week profit/loss: 10230

Football Value $28,000.00 $(7,205.00) -25.7%
week profit/loss: -3000

TFA 21 $149,335.00 $269.70 0.2%
week profit/loss: 3643.50

TFA 41 $143,300.00 $(4,994.00) -3.5%
week profit/loss: 5343.50

6-21-31 $85,857.00 $5,815.22 6.8%
week profit/loss: 1413.50

D1-D6 $47,000.00 $7,650.00 16.3%
week profit/loss: 3380

E1-E6 $42,940.00 $14,360.00 33.4%
week profit/loss: 3520

Mike Lindley $35,000.00 $(493.50) -1.4%
week profit/loss: 220

WINABOBATOO $153,979.00 $(3,615.18) -2.3%
week profit/loss: 4091.50

FBI combo $72,500.00 $3,677.00 5.1%
week profit/loss: 1940

FBI Euro $72,000.00 $15,425.00 21.4%
week profit/loss: 3520

Odds pushed out $22,500.00 $5,940.50 26.4%
week profit/loss: 1210.25

Personal $20,226.00 $(6,246.16) -30.9%
week profit/loss: 200

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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Sporting Karma is now live http://www.daily25.com/sporting-karma-now-live/ http://www.daily25.com/sporting-karma-now-live/#comments Thu, 11 Dec 2014 05:02:59 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2257 Yesterday I announced my new Start up. Today it went live. If you are an Australian and love Sport then please head to the Sporting Karma website and make a donation. Not only are you...

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Yesterday I announced my new Start up. Today it went live.

If you are an Australian and love Sport then please head to the Sporting Karma website and make a donation. Not only are you supporting a great cause and a great charity, but you would also be helping me get this idea off to a great start. Not to mention the donation is tax deductible and you can win some pretty cool prizes. The final cherry on top is that all donations up to $10,000 will be matched by The Tibra Capital Foundation.

Here’s a short video showing you how the site works and how easy it is to make a donation.

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