Daily25 http://www.daily25.com Trying to make $250 per day with sports betting Mon, 01 Sep 2014 04:36:10 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.9.2 Racing NSW September 1 live blog. http://www.daily25.com/racing-nsw-september-1-live-blog/ http://www.daily25.com/racing-nsw-september-1-live-blog/#comments Mon, 01 Sep 2014 03:11:03 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1925 Today is the just the start of what will be a massive change in the Australian wagering landscape. From today (September 1st), all bookmakers need to accept bets on all NSW races from everyone. This...

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Today is the just the start of what will be a massive change in the Australian wagering landscape. From today (September 1st), all bookmakers need to accept bets on all NSW races from everyone. This is a big day for many punters whose accounts have been limited or closed because they dare to make a profit from their punting. Today is the first step in a betting utopia, where if you want to place a bet on something, you can. It’s pathetic that the previous statement is seen as a utopia and not the way things are. We start with NSW racing and in the next year I’m positive the other states will come on board. Then we take the fight over to all Australian sports.

In June I wrote an article about the sleazy ways bookmakers would try and get around these new rules. You can read that article here. In a nutshell I said they would do a few things to stop profitable gamblers and get around these new rules.

I said they would

  • Close accounts
  • Increase their over-round (give worse odds to certain customers)
  • Remove fixed odds
  • Add deposit fees
  • Charge customers a turnover tax
  • Have tiered accounts.

I will keep updating this blog post all month until all bookmakers come into line with the new rules. We have already seen a few dodgy operators and some that are complying with the new rules.

Unibet Australia

A pathetic attempt from Unibet the night before the new rules are implemented, closing down accounts of any profitable punter.

Tomwaterhouse, Sportingbet and Centrebet

Why would they even think they could get away with this? This group have simply made tiered accounts as I mentioned in the previous post, which is completely against the rules. Any winning punter will see the correct odds if they are not logged into their account, but once they do, the will then see the odds they can get (which are far far worse). Here is a simple comparison of the next race. What we see below is the prices that normal (losing) punters are able to bet on, and then we see what potentially winning punters are able to get. Punters will remember which bookies were sleazy and which ones complied.  

On the left we have the prices for losing punters, on the right the prices for profitable punters (click to enlarge)

On the left we have the prices for losing punters, on the right the prices for profitable punters

 

Ladbrokes group (Ladbrokes.com.au, Bookmaker.com.au and Betstar.com.au)

These guys are just trying to make it as difficult as possible to have accounts reopened. Pointless really, but another sleazy tactic. 

If you have any other things to add let me know in the comments below.

Updates

1:30pm Sportsbet & Betstar still not offering fixed odds to previous closed accounts.

1:37 pm Looks like Bet365 is complying (good stuff Bet365)


2:34 pm TAB and Sportsbet still not accepting wagers.

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Why Pinnacle Sports sucks for the average bettor http://www.daily25.com/pinnacle-sucks-average-bettor/ http://www.daily25.com/pinnacle-sucks-average-bettor/#comments Wed, 27 Aug 2014 06:54:49 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1904 Now that I have removed all advertising from my site, I can happily bash bookmakers without worrying about them closing my affiliate accounts. Sadly all the reviews you read about sportsbooks are mostly bullshit, as...

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Now that I have removed all advertising from my site, I can happily bash bookmakers without worrying about them closing my affiliate accounts. Sadly all the reviews you read about sportsbooks are mostly bullshit, as the people writing them have a vested interest in you signing up. Not me. I’m free to write the truth about each and every bookmaker.

I have been a big supporter of Pinnacle sports on this site. They continue to offer great prices and high limits. Over 50% of my bets last year were placed with them. But over the past year they have done a few things that didn’t sit right with me. I first asked them to explain why they say everyone gets the same high limits while clearly disproving it. I then asked why they offer lower odds on Parlay bets then straight bets. I have also mentioned that they now send certain bets to a trader and cancel bets, Pinnacle denied this ever happens but a number of readers have also seen the problem. There also seem to be issues with some UK customers as I believe they are trying to get a license there at the moment.

Their most recent move has been to increase the industry standard of one times turnover on deposits to five times turnover on deposits. They even have the audacity to say

failure to meet our industry standard deposit roll-over threshold (five times deposit amount) will incur a 3% processing fee on the deposit and any applicable withdrawal fee.

This is just an out and out lie by them. The industry standard they speak off has always been and still is one times turnover. Now there are a number of reasons I have heard of why they have done this, but the simple real reason is so they can make more profit.

pinnaclesports

Not really true advertising

One of the these reasons is to stop money laundering, so what they are really saying here is “you can money launder through our site, but give us a fair cut”. Another reason which I can understand is that people are simply depositing to get reward points (Neteller or Credit Card), turning over once and then withdrawing and redepositing. Pinnacle does pay a fee every time someone deposits. Credit Card companies charge about 1% and Ewallets usually a little more. Pinnacle could stop this by talking to the Ewallets and not allowing points to count (as Betfair and others have done).

Why is Pinnacle crap for the average punter?

So why do I say that Pinnacle sucks for the average punter? Before I can state why, I will first need to make some assumptions. My idea of a typical punter is below.

Assumptions of the average bettor (from talking to employees of Australia’s biggest bookmakers)
  • Average bet size of $30
  • Average of 6 bets per week
  • Usually withdraws at the end of every week
I will also add a few other provisos to make the maths as easy as possible.
  • Bets line bets only (Pinnacle 1.952, other books 1.91)
  • no multis
  • will happily take up bonus offers
  • will not take Horse racing into equation as Pinnacle does not bet that
  • punter will only use the one website (doesn’t shop for the best odds)
  • punter hits line bets at 50%
  • flat bets

Now you have to understand that the average punter is a losing punter. They place a few bets on the weekend and withdraw whatever is left on Sunday afternoon. We now have some figures to work with.

note: this is a very simple breakdown of an average punter and may be far from what they are really like. But the average stake size is correct and the amount turned over each week is also very close.

The (very simple) maths

With 6 bets per week and $30 spent on each bet. The average punter will bet $180 a week. The average punter also doesn’t look for value, so will place all his bets at the one place. Using all this data we can assume that he will win 3 bets per week. Again, this is on average over a whole year.

Return at your average Australian bookmaker

3 line bets @ $1.91 for $30 a bet lost = -$90.00

3 line bets @ 1.91 for $30 a bet won = +$81.90

Total loss for the week = $8.10

Total loss over a year is $8.10 * 52 = $421.20

Return at Pinnacle

3 line bets @ $1.952 for $30 a bet lost = -$90.00

3 line bets @ 1.952 for $30 a bet won = +$85.68

Total loss for the week = $4.32

Total loss over a year is $4.32 * 52 = $224.64

We have a clear winner right. If only our average punter would place all his bets at Pinnacle, he would only lose $224.64 a year. He would be $196.56 better off. But it’s not so simple is it. Remember that Pinnacle customers need to turnover their deposits 5 times before they can withdraw. So straight away our punter is at a disadvantage betting there. The same $150 deposit he puts into the Australian sportsbook on Friday and withdraws on Sunday will need to stay in his Pinnacle account for 5 weeks. So over the year he will make $9,360 in deposits to the Aussie bookie and only $1,872 to Pinnacle. If our punter was using a rewards credit card then he would make an extra profit off $60 by sticking with the Aussie bookie. Still, Pinnacle is $136.56 in front.

Pinnacle boasts that it does not offer bonuses and says their odds more then make up for that. But most Australian bookies offer a $500 deposit bonus (many offer much higher). This needs to be turned over the industry standard once and only winnings from the freebet are added to the account. These bets can easily be matched off on betfair to retain 70-80% of the bonus. So at worst this free bet is worth $350 to our average punter. So now the Australian bookies are looking a lot more attractive with a lead of $213.44. But it doesn’t stop there.

aussieAustralian bookies are in a very giving mood at the moment as they all fight to sign up as many customers as possible. They not only give a very nice welcome bonus, but every week they have many ongoing bonuses. They have free bets, refunds, value bets, and even return losses when something weird happens (this week alone I received $700 back when a horse went berserk in a race, the bookie decided to pay out the winner and refund all the other bets). Being extremely conservative here, I would say there is another $500 of value for your average punter by taking up a few of these offers. So now the Aussie bookie is looking really good and is easily $713.44 better off then Pinnacle in a year. There has never been a better time for Aussie punters (well maybe a few years ago, but its still amazing).

Whereas the average punter has zero chance of making a profit at Pinnacle, with credit card rewards, signup bonuses and ongoing bonuses, your average Joe could very easily come out ahead each year by betting at Aussie bookies. While I hate giving any credit to the Australian bookies, it’s a pretty clear choice for any aussie punter.

If all you want to do is place a few bets over the weekend for a bit of fun, then stick with the Aussie bookies. Luckily there is no rule that says you can only bet at one bookmaker. So you should be getting the best of both worlds. Take the better odds when you can at Pinnacle (knowing that you can’t withdraw until you turnover the very non industry standard 5 times), and take up the offers at the Aussie books. This is where I would usually pitch you about my service that shows you how to make the most from all these bookmakers offers and also how to use Pinnacle to your advantage, but as the service is not accepting new members right now, you won’t have to listen to me blab on about it.

Why Pinnaclebet has an uphill battle

Pinnaclebet is Pinnacles attempt to join the Australian market. I feel they have a huge uphill battle ahead of them. As they do no advertising and offer no incentives to join, only current Pinnacle customers might make the move to the Australian version. They may get new customers via word of mouth but will not build up much of a base. The current corporate bookmakers in Australia really have nothing to fear from Pinnaclebet. It just doesn’t offer value to most people.

Yes Pinnacle is the world’s best bookmaker…. for high turnover bettors. For the other 98% of people it’s better to go with the ones that offer bonuses and the industry standard 1x turnover.

I’m sure most of my readers are Pinnacle lovers, so you can attack me in the comments below. Have at me.

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Aug 20th – Aug 26th -$2,996.58 http://www.daily25.com/aug-20th-aug-26th-2996-58/ http://www.daily25.com/aug-20th-aug-26th-2996-58/#comments Tue, 26 Aug 2014 05:20:30 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1896 nother very disappointing week and while the loss was not as big as last week, it felt even more depressing then usual. I was sitting on close to negative $40,000 for the year on Sunday...

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Another very disappointing week and while the loss was not as big as last week, it felt even more depressing then usual. I was sitting on close to negative $40,000 for the year on Sunday afternoon before an AFL win and then a win on the Golf clawed back most of the losses. I really felt like betting had dropped off a cliff and there was no way I could continue to make money from it. I started to try and think of ways to make some guaranteed profit to pay the bills. Deciding to stop consulting work to concentrate on the site has meant a big squeeze on my finances and it doesn’t help that I have ethics that won’t allow me to make some quick money by pushing you all to join dodgy sportsbooks. The money involved in the affiliate business is massive and I could easily make a years wage in a matter of days by sending an email to all my subscribers and telling them about great new sportsbooks, but I know I would be lying and these sportsbooks don’t deserve new customers if they won’t treat them well. So if I ever seem to be trying to make a quick buck unethically, please publicly shame me on it. It is very strange how my mentality has changed now, taking into account no steady stream of income, the loss of my partners income (as she stops work for 18 months), and the soon to be arrival of my first kid. I long for an income stream that I know will be there every week to pay the bills and keep us fed. Luckily betting has provided a very healthy emergency fund for these very moments. Wow, woe is me. Ignore my moaning, this blog is my release valve. I know I’ll be fine and I know eventually things will turn around (over the long term).

That moaning leads onto the top 3 articles that I will try and write over the next month. I had a great response to the poll with over 260 of you voting in under 24 hours. The clear winner with 74 votes was the one about why I feel Pinnacle is a poor choice for small time bettors. In second place with 66 votes will be me showing you a video of how I go about placing my bets. In 3rd place, you get to see how I deal with my losses (more then just ranting on this blog), that article scored 44 votes.

In other news, I stopped following the Sportpunter Tennis models early in the week, normally I hate to stop following a service if I have not lost the bank I set up for it, but after following the model for over 4 years, something is very off with the old and now new models. The WTA seems to be stable, but the ATP is clearly not profitable in it’s current state. Normally when you stop following a service it starts to perform, but I have saved myself at least $8k this week from stopping and I’m very happy with that. Jonno has been working night and day trying to fix it, and I’m sure eventually he will figure it out. When he does I’ll be back on the ATP bandwagon. It’s quite a weird feeling not to be betting on tennis, as the US Open was the first event that really made a massive return for me in my second year when I had lost every cent I had made in the previous 14 months. Tennis is a great sport to have in your portfolio as it is played year round, limits are quite high and prices do not crash drastically. I hope my stay away is short lived.

Onto the weeks results and sadly Sportpunter didn’t perform again. With just 1 more round in the AFL before the finals, this seasons profit has not lived up to expectations (to clarify, my expectations were 100k profit). I do laugh at myself for being upset at a profit of $40,000 so far this season and feeling as though it has had a pretty poor year. This week I lost $7,000 on AFL, $300 on Tennis (before I stopped), $150 on NRL and the only profitable system was the MLB totals which made $2,800. All SP models combined since July 1st sit at a $43,705 loss.

ClubGOWI made $1,200 profit which included the Golf win alluded to above. Seems the big priced winners continue to cover the many smaller losses. Can not complain about the overall results though as I sit on close to $20,000 profit since December last year (with an extra $6k almost guaranteed with the Rory bet). My hope was to make 100 points profit in a year and we are on track.

The other Golf tipsters haven’t hit in a while and combined they lost $900 this week. Diamond Edge ended it’s recent great run with a loss of $2,800 and PCG made a small $300 profit.

I added another new service to my Soccer portfolio this season and it started with a win. Football Value is the newest member and this is a service with very few bets a season (50-80), but a pretty impressive track record. I will be following with $1,000 bets. This week Football Value made $915 profit. Owltips got back on track this week and I give credit to the way the service is run, they work hard to figure out the best times to send bets so that limits are high enough for people to get on. So far I’ve found that prices do not rebound so I need to get on straight away and will usually get 2-5c worse odds then those shown. $1,800 profit for Owltips this week. Football Elite also had a profitable week with $950 profit. The season is really starting to get into full swing and all the big boys will start sending bets in the next month.

I’m excited once again for this Soccer season. I just know that it’s ready to have that 1 amazing year where they all perform to their historical returns. I feel I learnt a lot of valuable lessons last season and will be implementing a few changes which should hopefully result in a lot smoother journey. I still hold out hope that I will be in profit by the time the first big round of Soccer bets are posted. Until next week.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Loss for the week was $2,996.58

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $989,664.00
Profit/Loss: $(28,047.98)
POT: -2.83%
Bets Placed: 1335
Won: 586
Lost: 659
Half Payout: 10
Refunded: 80
Winning %: 47.1%
Total profit per day: $319,476.86 / 1518 = $210.45
Total Turnover: $15,332,407.37
Total ROI: 2.08%

ATP – SP $180,114.00 $(20,446.90) -11.4%
week profit/loss: -522.28

WTA – SP $124,622.00 $509.62 0.4%
week profit/loss: 235.30

AFL H2H – SP $36,416.00 $10,746.42 29.5%
week profit/loss: -1354.12

AFL Line – SP $197,107.00 $(38,361.57) -19.5%
week profit/loss: -5590.78

SP MLB $147,733.00 $(1,236.79) -0.8%
week profit/loss: 2805.52

NRL SP $21,987.00 $5,755.35 26.2%
week profit/loss: -156.75

ClubGowi $92,139.00 $11,787.95 12.8%
week profit/loss: 1425

GOWI $2,357.00 $669.00 28.4%
week profit/loss: -200

Diamond Edge $90,000.00 $7,010.00 7.8%
week profit/loss: -2824.50

PCG $63,142.00 $1,719.44 2.7%
week profit/loss: 351.03

Jason Kelly Golf $2,966.00 $(2,366.00) -79.8%
week profit/loss: -550

Betswot $4,603.00 $(3,098.00) -67.3%
week profit/loss: -325

OwlTips $10,600.00 $(430.00) -4.1%
week profit/loss: 1855

FB Elite $2,500.00 $(550.00) -22.0%
week profit/loss: 950

Football Value $1,000.00 $915.00 91.5%
week profit/loss: 915

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What should I write about next? http://www.daily25.com/write-next/ http://www.daily25.com/write-next/#comments Sun, 24 Aug 2014 00:06:36 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1879 have a massive list of potential blog posts I want to write. There are literally limitless things to write about when it comes to betting. But with so much choice comes paralysis. It’s just like...

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I have a massive list of potential blog posts I want to write. There are literally limitless things to write about when it comes to betting. But with so much choice comes paralysis. It’s just like heading to the supermarket to pick up cereal, there are so many choices that at the end you just decide not to get any of them. This is known as the paradox of choice (a great read). So instead of wasting my time figuring out what to write next, I’ll take that burden from my shoulders and give it to you.

I have randomly picked 8 topics from my list of over 100 and the one with the most votes at the end of the week will be the one I write about. So if any of them tickles your fancy then vote for it.

If there is something you want me to write about not on the list, then post it in the comments section.

Question 1
What should my next article be?

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Joining the Friendly Tipster League http://www.daily25.com/joining-friendly-tipster-league/ http://www.daily25.com/joining-friendly-tipster-league/#comments Wed, 20 Aug 2014 05:45:04 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1872 I’m now a fully paid entrant in the Friendly Tipster League (FTL) run by Cassini over at the Green All Over blog. I’ve paid my £52.50 and I’ll be on the list as the aptly named...

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I’m now a fully paid entrant in the Friendly Tipster League (FTL) run by Cassini over at the Green All Over blog. I’ve paid my £52.50 and I’ll be on the list as the aptly named Daily25. The competition has grown over the last 2 years and is just a group of tipsters and bloggers vying for some ego. As always, I’m fairly confident I’ll rein (see what I did there) on all their parades and come out the winner. I’ll receive about £1,000 pounds for my troubles. Like taking candy from some middle aged men.

I believe there are still 2 places available and really, the return on investment is pretty good. From what I have seen over the last few years, these guys will be easy to beat :). So get in quick if you’re thinking of joining.

So what’s my strategy? Well as I have mentioned copious times before on this blog, I couldn’t pick a winner if it smashed me across the face. But I am more then happy to pay other people to do the hard work for me. I pay a few tipsters that have bets in the same league, we know how well multiple bets did for me last season, but what I will be doing is selecting bets if TFA, Winabob, FB investor, or FB Elite agree. I think if 3 of them have chosen the same bet then that’s a pretty good indicator. A friend (Edwin) did some analysis using WIN,TFA and FBI last season and these bets produced a 13% ROI.

I wish the other entrants luck as they vie for second place.

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Aug 13th – Aug 19th -$21,085.25 http://www.daily25.com/aug-13th-aug-19th-21085-25/ http://www.daily25.com/aug-13th-aug-19th-21085-25/#comments Mon, 18 Aug 2014 23:04:33 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1860 hat a killer week. A seriously depressing end to what at one staged looked like the start of my fightback. I guess I boasted too loudly to the gambling gods when I posted this on...

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What a killer week. A seriously depressing end to what at one staged looked like the start of my fightback. I guess I boasted too loudly to the gambling gods when I posted this on twitter on Saturday.

As you can see now, year 5 stands at $883,950.00 bet for a $25,051.40 loss. But there are lessons in every loss and for me it is my very high reliance on the AFL model. This year it has not performed to the same high standard as past years. It is still up over $40,000 so there are no complaints, but with past years always returning at least a 100% ROC, I assumed the same would happen again this season. I also need to trust in Jonno’s skills a little more in regards to his other models (apart from Tennis). His NRL and S15 models this year have been nothing short of extraordinary and like the NBL model last season, have added a big chunk of profit at fairly low stakes. If I was betting with the same size bank as I do for the AFL model, then this season would be looking very different. Next season I will be upping my stakes by 4x on both NRL and S15. NBL is a tough one as no bookie wants to take a bet over a few hundred dollars on it. I will need to test their willingness to take a bet in the first few weeks of the season.

Everything was going so well on Saturday, The Brisbane Lions beat Collingwood at odds of $6.50 and that H2H and Line win added $7,500 profit. That was the only AFL win of the entire week and there were some very big bets. The H2H ended up returning $1021 thanks to that big BL win, but the Line bets lost a massive $20,125. ATP is just loss after loss, it really is the worst thing I have seen Jonno produce, the weird thing is we continue to beat closing lines, but we continue to loss on short priced favs on a very regular basis. It lost $2,100 this week and the WTA made $900. The MLB Totals made $700 and NRL lost $750. So a very bad week for the Sportpunter service and the worst week ever for my dailyprofit subscribers. One part of the service is based of Sportpunter line bets and as only 1 won this week, all members suffered. I now know how bad tipsters feel when they have a losing week.

This week I won’t bash ClubGowi too much, he did make $2,600. By now you know my thoughts on his service. In short his results are not based in reality, but it is a winning service long-term. But we are talking in the 2-5% range at best. Now if he said this on the website and showed proof, I would be his biggest fan. Instead he states a 13.64% ROI on his site. Today I read the most in-depth article on the service by Mat who writes the Sporting Value blog. If you have thought about joining the service then you should read that post. It will give a much fairer reflection of the service then me or Keith show. Mat has gone into great details and it’s highly recommended reading.

Golf added more losses this week with Jason Kelly down $200 and Betswot losing $725. Soccer also continued its dull start to the season with Owltips losing $1,000 which should have been more but prices on some games never rebounded. I’m not sure if I will continue after this one month trial, while it is clear he works hard to try and get the best odds for his clients, I’m just not sure if it will be worth my time and effort for the season. I can’t base my decision of results as there are too few bets, so I need to base it off how the service is run, and how close I can get to the recorded results. Football Elite had his first 3 bets, all losers for a $1,500 loss.

In other news, Skeeve has started his own blog. I look forward to reading his articles. I’m sure we will disagree on a great many things in the years ahead (haha).

So another week where I touched parity before I fell off a cliff again. It’s never fun being in a big negative for extended periods of time. With the start of the soccer betting season a few weeks away, I will be starting what has historically been the worst betting period with an already substantial loss. Ahh, betting is fun isn’t it. Until next week.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Loss for the week was $21,085.25

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $883,950.00
Profit/Loss: $(25,051.40)
POT: -2.83%
Bets Placed: 1158
Won: 515
Lost: 573
Half Payout: 8
Refunded: 62
Winning %: 47.3%
Total profit per day: $322,473.44 / 1511 = $213.41
Total Turnover: $15,226,693.37
Total ROI: 2.12%

ATP – SP $178,370.00 $(19,924.62) -11.2%
week profit/loss: -2127.45

WTA – SP $123,744.00 $274.32 0.2%
week profit/loss: 914.03

AFL H2H – SP $32,161.00 $12,110.54 37.7%
week profit/loss: 1021.44

AFL Line – SP $175,781.00 $(32,770.79) -18.6%
week profit/loss: -20125

SP MLB $122,550.00 $(4,042.31) -3.3%
week profit/loss: 673.20

NRL SP $17,999.00 $5,912.10 32.8%
week profit/loss: -752.25

ClubGowi $77,849.00 $10,362.95 13.3%
week profit/loss: 2610.85

GOWI $2,157.00 $869.00 40.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Diamond Edge $75,000.00 $9,834.50 13.1%
week profit/loss: 1659.50

PCG $51,492.00 $1,368.41 2.7%
week profit/loss: -1570.57

Jason Kelly Golf $2,416.00 $(1,816.00) -75.2%
week profit/loss: -191

Betswot $4,153.00 $(2,773.00) -66.8%
week profit/loss: -725

OwlTips $5,900.00 $(2,285.00) -38.7%
week profit/loss: -973

FB Elite $2,000.00 $(1,500.00) -75.0%
week profit/loss: -1500

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Matchbook offer http://www.daily25.com/matchbook-offer/ http://www.daily25.com/matchbook-offer/#comments Fri, 15 Aug 2014 02:51:38 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1856 You will have noticed that the site no longer has affiliate banners anywhere. I will explain this in a post soon. In a nutshell, I am completely honest about bookmakers and a few affiliates closed...

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You will have noticed that the site no longer has affiliate banners anywhere. I will explain this in a post soon. In a nutshell, I am completely honest about bookmakers and a few affiliates closed down my accounts for speaking out about their practices and trying to help their customers. I will make sure that other affiliates know about their practices and also how they treat customers very soon.

Instead I will have Sportsbook reviews and these one off posts that will let you know of any good offers and good sportsbooks.

Today we have Matchbook. Pretty much Betfair but with only 1% commission. Last season they had 0% commission on the football markets and the liquidity was as good as betfair. This year might be a different story, but if you don’t have an account already then you can help yourself get better odds and help me out by signing up with the banner below.

Last year Matchbook was my 4th most used bookmaker.

They have a $£50 risk free bet for new customers.

 

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How losing gamblers can still come out ahead by using credit card rewards http://www.daily25.com/losing-gamblers-can-still-come-ahead/ http://www.daily25.com/losing-gamblers-can-still-come-ahead/#comments Wed, 13 Aug 2014 07:47:42 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1826 f you’re reading this then in all likelihood you are a losing gambling. There’s nothing wrong with that, 98% of you are. Unlike the vast majority, you are at least looking for information online and...

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losinggamblerIf you’re reading this then in all likelihood you are a losing gambling. There’s nothing wrong with that, 98% of you are. Unlike the vast majority, you are at least looking for information online and reading this site. Now most of the time I talk utter rubbish, but every now and again I will give you a bit of information that can help turn what is now a losing proposition for you into a winning one. In the past I’ve banged on about keeping track of all your bets, finding the best odds at all times and a heap of other little things that will help. Today if you’re smart (and you read this site, so you must be), you will add one more little piece of the puzzle to your betting arsenal.

I live off a very fine margin. If I can make a 2% return over a season then I should do ok. That means for every $100 I bet, I hope to get my initial $100 back and then an extra $2. That’s all I hope for, if I get $5 back instead then I have had an amazing year. Now work that out for yourself. If you bet on average $500 a week, then you should be happy with $10 profit and ecstatic if you make $25. This is most losing punters major problem. They expect that if they bet $500 a week, they should make that same amount of money. Losing punters perceptions is an article for another day, but understand that we are both working to very low margins. When margins are so small, any extra things you can do to improve them offer great value.

Today we are going to talk about frequent flyer points, credit cards reward programs and online wallet rewards programs. This is going to be a fairly detailed post. I will break down each category and then show you my plan of attack for the year ahead. My numbers may be a bit bigger then yours, but the percentages will be the same for everyone. 1% extra profit to me is the same to you.

Rewards and Cashback programs

Credit card companies and casinos/sportsbooks have long offered bonuses and rewards to customers if they use their product. It’s a simple tactic, give customers a tiny percentage back as a gift and they will love you forever. Lets look at a few examples.

  • The Qantas frequent flyer program gives FF points when you fly or use affiliated credit cards. You can then redeem these points for flights or merchandise. This is the only profitable arm of the entire Qantas company.
  • Credit card companies give you reward points or frequent flyer points for every $1 you spend on your credit card. These can be redeemed for cash or merchandise.
  • You also see the same thing in Vegas, I have never had to pay for a room or food when I head to Vegas as I am “comped”. All I need to do is play Blackjack at $25 a hand for a few hours a day (something I would do anyway), and the casino thanks me with free room and board. I know how to play perfect strategy and over 4 hours I might play close to 240 hands of Blackjack which means I have bet $6,000. I know on average I will lose about $100 per day over the long term betting this much. If I was to pay for my room and the food and entertainment each day, I would be looking at $500 to $1,000.
  • RSL clubs and Casinos in Australia also have their own rewards programs, where you get points for playing the pokie machines and these can be redeemed for food and drinks.
  • Online e-wallets also offer reward points for every transfer you make into a casino or sportsbook.
  • TAB runs its own rewards program and these points can be exchange for cash or merchandise
  • Supermarkets such as Woolworths and Coles offer rewards points based on how much you spend

So why do they do this?

Credit card companies, sportsbooks, casinos, airlines and Supermarkets all make a motza from each customer. We can easily see how sportsbooks and casinos make money from us, they have a massive inbuilt edge that most people can’t beat. The supermarkets offer points for a few reasons, they want to build loyalty, but more so they want as much information about your shopping habits as possible, so they can sell even more products to you. Credit card companies charge merchants a few percent for every transaction. All these businesses make so much money and there is fierce competition for each and every customer.

How I did things for the past 4 years

1stclassIf you’re a regular reader of this blog then you know I love to travel. Last year I lived in Europe and traveled through America before taking a 30 day cruise home (tough life I know, but someone has to live it). This last trip, my girlfriend and I only traveled business or first class everywhere we went. Normally the cost of the flights we took would have added up to $50,000. In total I paid $3,000 in taxes and fees for the flights. I used my Qantas frequent flyer points to cover the rest. Over the years I have shouted my mates a trip to Vegas using these points and upgraded a few friends who had bought economy tickets. There are ways to get the most out of these points, but I don’t want to go too deep into travel hacking as it is no longer relevant.

Years ago all banks allowed any deposit into a sportsbook (gambling transactions) to be treated like any other purchase. Over the years many banks moved to charging a cash advance fee on these deposits. I actually think this is a good thing as I believe that no one should ever bet with credit. This made the frequent flyer points worthless as the fee was much more then the points were worth. The only bank that didn’t charge a cash advance and still gave frequent flyer points was ANZ. Sadly on July 1st this year they have stopped giving FF points. I was devastated by this news. My dreams of flying first class for the rest of my life were dashed. I would never pay the stupid prices for an actual business or 1st class ticket. I now have 600,000 points left. This should get me and my girlfriend at least one more round the world trip in business class.

donationTalk about 1st world problems, here I am complaining about not being able to travel the world for free. Now I feel bad… be back in a sec

OK. Donated to a charity, great thing is I also got some credit card rewards points. haha

Now that I feel slightly less shamefull about bitching and moaning, let’s move on.

So we can’t get frequent flyer points anymore, and I assumed that was it. But there’s always more then one way to skin a cat. Below I will talk about a few more alternatives to earn that little bit extra which can help you turn a loss into at least break even.

ANZ Rewards Points

ANZ-Rewards-BlackAs i lamented the loss of my future points on twitter, I had a few people reply saying the rewards points were still working. Now these are bank specific rewards programs. You can use the points for merchandise, you can still convert them to air miles with a few airlines, but the best use of the points is to simply convert them to cash. I’ve signed up for the most expensive card (ANZ Black) as it offers 2 points for every dollar used on the card. If you have never had an ANZ card before, you can join up here and have the first year waived and also receive 50,000 points (which is about $300 in cash). I don’t get anything from ANZ, all I get is the warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing that I just made you $300 and potentially even more. You can always cancel this card before the year is out and move to a cheaper one the year after.

So I have now paid $375 for the card. There are added bonuses like free travel insurance, free entry into airport lounges and a free concierge service. You can actually ring up your concierge and ask them to do anything for you (within reason). So now if I choose to use this card for every bet I place then let’s see how much I could potentially make.

I will use last years figures and add in what I think I will turnover on horse racing this year as well. Last year I bet a total of $4.6million. If it was a simple case of depositing and withdrawing then I would have received 9.2 million points. It costs 20,620 point to receive $100 cashback. That would equal $44,616 or very close to 1% of my total turnover. That would be amazing if it was that easy, I would have moved from a 2% minimum return to 3%. Sadly most of my turnover was at Pinnacle, who have now added a rule that says any deposit must be turned over 5 times before you can withdraw. I turned over $2.3 million there last season so we need to divide that by 5 which means I could only deposit $460,000 there. That gives us a new figure of $2.76million deposited into sportsbooks which equates to $26,700 in cash backs. What this means is I can still lose $30,000 this year and I will still break even. I believe I will be able to turnover a further $1 million on the horses each year which is a further $9,700 a year.

But is there a better way? maybe. Let’s find out.

Online Wallets (Neteller and Skrill)

The only other alternative to deposit into bookmakers and receive rewards is via an online wallet. The two big ones are Neteller and Skrill. I have had a look at the skrill rewards offers and they look terrible, so I will just concentrate on the Neteller rewards.netellerrewards

As I should be able to transfer over $2,000,000 per year I would be a Diamond member. That means I will receive 1.5 points for every dollar I send or receive from a bookmaker. Sadly not all Australian bookmakers take Neteller, but lets use the same amount we used earlier ($2.76 million). We will also assume I came out even and deposited and withdraw that same amount. That means over a year I would receive 8.28 million Neteller points. It costs 6.326 million points to receive $5,000 cash back. So those points are worth about $6,550. You will receive even less on the lower levels. This is an easy decision to make but there are a few things to take into consideration. If Pinnacle charge a credit card fee then Neteller would be the best choice, but if they don’t (which I believe so), then it is much better to use the ANZ rewards card.

Some things to consider

There are many issues that could crop up that you might not think about. These are just some.

  • offers can change at any time
  • pinnacle has rules to how much u can deposit
  • other sportsbooks might charge a CC fee (betfair already does)
  • If you forget to pay off your CC bill in time you will be whacked with a fee
  • Rewards programs can change the value of points
  • You could double up with TAB, get ANZ points for deposit and also TAB points for the bets.. SCORE

What will I do?

I’ll use a combination of ANZ rewards and Neteller. I believe I can get about $10,000 – $20,000 in cash back each year which would be fantastic. So next time you are about to deposit into a sportsbook, think of the best deposit method to use to get the most from every single cent you bet.

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Aug 6th – Aug 12th +$3,301.06 http://www.daily25.com/aug-6th-aug-12th-3301-06/ http://www.daily25.com/aug-6th-aug-12th-3301-06/#comments Tue, 12 Aug 2014 04:39:55 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1816 nother quick update this week as I am snowed under with the dailyprofit service and life in general. A similar week to last week, where the overall loss was close to $20,000 before a Sunday...

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Another quick update this week as I am snowed under with the dailyprofit service and life in general. A similar week to last week, where the overall loss was close to $20,000 before a Sunday night fightback to bring it back into profit for the week. Not really going anywhere at the moment, but I guess that’s better then losing. I have over 100 articles I want to write in my to do list and I hope to get to them one day. Sadly that day isn’t today (or anytime in the near future).

adpjuveI did get some free time on Sunday and went up to Sydney to catch Juventus play the A-league all stars. Not the most exciting game ever, but still a fun experience. Talking about long lists, I have many sporting events I want to see in my lifetime and they are on my bucket list. I have ticked a large number off but would like to go on a year of sport tour around the world and tick everything off while travelling around the world with a few mates. Maybe that can be my present to myself when I reach the $1,000,000 mark.

ATP is really doing my head in, another massive loss this week and now it looks like after just a few months Jonno has been convinced to go back to the old model. I’m not sure this is the right thing as the old model showed over a very long period that it was not performing, whereas we have barely given this new one 3 months. Nothing much I can do now but take the loss and figure out if I will continue to follow something that has shown no signs of making a profit for a very long time. This weeks losses were $7,300 and the WTA made $400. AFL didn’t really go anywhere either this week, but I was reminded off the value of getting the best possible lines with AFL, as St Kilda once again beat their line by half a point. Over H2H and Line bets, AFL made $3,400. After the shocking week last week, the SP baseball model recouped half those losses by making $4,600. NRL continues on its merry ways adding a further $1,500 profit and I continue to kick myself for not following with larger stakes.

ClubGOWI lost $2,500 and lately it seems that the bets where the odds do not rebound are starting to win a lot more, so I am missing the winning bets and getting on the losing ones. Thanks to my awesome spreadsheet I can now record the best odds at the start of the match, and put those bets I do not get on because of unattainable prices as a refund and record how Keith himself would have gone. I can now see what my real profit is and what it would have been if I could bet at the “mythical odds”.  Right now over a month and a bit, Keith is $5,000 better off then me if he was betting the same $400 per unit stake size as I do. Like I have said many times before, it’s a profitable service over a very long time frame, but take his so called official results, half them, then half them again, and you are then in the ballpark of what you can hope to achieve.

The two other Football services currently running are Owltips and Football Elite. Owltips has not had a great start, and luckily I could get nowhere near the posted odds so missed some losers. I have paid for just 1 month for this service and depending on how close I can get to the odds will see me either stay or leave. So far it does not look good, but I believe they were testing new times to bet and it was a lower league for the first week. Football Elite has no such worries with the odds, sometimes I beat them, sometimes I don’t, but it usually averages out to a 1-2% worse odds. His first bet this season was a push. Mat (football Elite) has also offered a new pricing structure I had read of before but had not seen. You could pay for a full year of service for £179 or you could pay £100 upfront and then an extra £100 every time 10 points of profit have been reached. I am sticking with last years stakes of 1k per point, so if I make $10,000 profit, I will need to pay Mat an extra £100, then if I hit $20,000, all up I will have paid him £300. I like this way of paying, as my success becomes his success. I hope to pay him at least £300 or more this season.

Finally the Golf and Baseball. Jason Kelly lost $400 and Betswot lost $325. The good news is Rory winning again has pretty much wrapped up the ClubGOWI long term bet for the race to Dubai winner. That will add a very welcome $6,000 profit in November. Luckily for me I managed to match his recorded odds on that one. Diamond Edge has been on fire the past few weeks, adding $3,300 over the past 7 days and PCG added $900. I will need to see the release times for the upcoming NFL season, but in all likelihood I will need to drop this service based purely on my sleep patterns.

That’s it for another week. Still holding out hope for a strong AFL finish and to have the bank close to $50,000 profit before the football season gets into full swing in a month.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Profit for the week was $3,301.06

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $765,709.00
Profit/Loss: $(3,966.15)
POT: -0.52%
Bets Placed: 994
Won: 447
Lost: 490
Half Payout: 7
Refunded: 50
Winning %: 47.7%
Total profit per day: $343,558.69 / 1504 = $228.42
Total Turnover: $15,108,452.37
Total ROI: 2.27%

ATP – SP $164,064.00 $(17,797.17) -10.8%
week profit/loss: -7243.48

WTA – SP $107,952.00 $(639.71) -0.6%
week profit/loss: 386.67

AFL H2H – SP $27,024.00 $11,089.10 41.0%
week profit/loss: 2552

AFL Line – SP $147,106.00 $(12,645.79) -8.6%
week profit/loss: 814.75

SP MLB $107,667.00 $(4,715.51) -4.4%
week profit/loss: 4626.57

NRL SP $15,599.00 $6,664.35 42.7%
week profit/loss: 1483.05

ClubGowi $66,249.00 $7,752.10 11.7%
week profit/loss: -2499

GOWI $2,157.00 $869.00 40.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Diamond Edge $63,500.00 $8,175.00 12.9%
week profit/loss: 3318.50

PCG $43,360.00 $2,938.98 6.8%
week profit/loss: 899

Jason Kelly Golf $2,225.00 $(1,625.00) -73.0%
week profit/loss: -400

Betswot $3,428.00 $(2,048.00) -59.7%
week profit/loss: -325

OwlTips $2,500.00 $(1,312.00) -52.5%
week profit/loss: -312

FB Elite $500.00 $- 0.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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July 30th – Aug 5th -$2,103.40 http://www.daily25.com/july-30th-aug-5th-100/ http://www.daily25.com/july-30th-aug-5th-100/#comments Tue, 05 Aug 2014 02:40:00 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1806 ot the greatest week for the sports side of things. I did manage to hit a trifecta with the horses that paid out a massive return, but I am keeping those records separate. Some Sportpunter...

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Not the greatest week for the sports side of things. I did manage to hit a trifecta with the horses that paid out a massive return, but I am keeping those records separate. Some Sportpunter models are giving me real concerns lately. I will continue with them till season end, but need to look at what else is out there in regards to Tennis and Baseball. I will probably stick with Sportpunter as he very rarely has two bad seasons in a row. When I say a bad season for Sportpunter, that usually means breaking even or a small loss. Not really much to talk about this week, still working on my Football portfolio, and researching a few new Horse tipsters. You’ll also notice that there are now no affiliate ads on the site at all. I will write about that if I have time this week.

Sportpunter Tennis lost $2,000 on ATP and $1,300 on the WTA. There wasn’t much bet on the AFL but it made $2,900. The baseball totals fell off a cliff this week, A massive $9,500 loss. Never seen anything like that before. The Rugby season ended with yet another win for $1,350 profit and I will do my season review soon. The NRL continues on its winning ways with a further $500 profit.

ClubGowi has been on a fantastic run recently. $3,600 profit this week and over $10k profit for the last month and a bit. Life is a lot more relaxing when I’m not bothered with placing bets the second his emails come out. I now know I can’t beat a 5-30 second time disadvantage so don’t even bother. As long as I stick to my rules in regards to odds, then it should still be profitable.

Diamond Edge had a standout week with $4,700 profit and PCG lost $300. Again I was close in the Golf with a big bet on Sergio Garcia who led by 3 going into the final round, he crumbled and Rory took it out. At least it helps the long term GOWI bet which will return $6,000 if Rory wins the race to Dubai. Jason Kelly lost $400 and BetSWOT lost $600.

My first new add to the Soccer portfolio started this week. I am following Owltips at $100 a unit (most bets are 5 units). This service only provides bets on the Portuguese league and I am testing for a month to see if odds are attainable and if I like the general feel of the service. This week we lost the two opening bets of the season for -$1,000.

Sorry about the very short update, way too much going on at the moment. If you’re an aussie reading this, read the previous post about my new services results and second intake. You have until the end of today to join.

Good luck with this weeks punting.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Loss for the week was $2,103.40

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $620,608.00
Profit/Loss: $(7,267.21)
POT: -1.17%
Bets Placed: 790
Won: 356
Lost: 398
Half Payout: 4
Refunded: 32
Winning %: 47.2%
Total profit per day: $340,257.63 / 1497 = $227.29
Total Turnover: $14,963,351.37
Total ROI: 2.27%

ATP – SP $134,861.00 $(10,553.69) -7.8%
week profit/loss: -2017.24

WTA – SP $92,440.00 $(1,026.38) -1.1%
week profit/loss: -1328.22

AFL H2H – SP $21,629.00 $8,537.10 39.5%
week profit/loss: 1018.50

AFL Line – SP $124,060.00 $(13,460.54) -10.9%
week profit/loss: 1917.75

SP MLB $83,684.00 $(9,342.08) -11.2%
week profit/loss: -9522.94

Rugby SP $12,378.00 $(671.50) -5.4%
week profit/loss: 1360

NRL SP $12,337.00 $5,181.30 42.0%
week profit/loss: 533.75

ClubGowi $52,349.00 $10,251.10 19.6%
week profit/loss: 3588

GOWI $2,157.00 $869.00 40.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Diamond Edge $49,000.00 $4,856.50 9.9%
week profit/loss: 4682

PCG $29,785.00 $2,039.98 6.8%
week profit/loss: -285

Jason Kelly Golf $1,825.00 $(1,225.00) -67.1%
week profit/loss: -425

Betswot $3,103.00 $(1,723.00) -55.5%
week profit/loss: -625

OwlTips $1,000.00 $(1,000.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -1000

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