Daily25 http://www.daily25.com Trying to make $250 per day with sports betting Wed, 20 Aug 2014 05:49:12 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.9.2 Joining the Friendly Tipster League http://www.daily25.com/joining-friendly-tipster-league/ http://www.daily25.com/joining-friendly-tipster-league/#comments Wed, 20 Aug 2014 05:45:04 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1872 I’m now a fully paid entrant in the Friendly Tipster League (FTL) run by Cassini over at the Green All Over blog. I’ve paid my £52.50 and I’ll be on the list as the aptly named...

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I’m now a fully paid entrant in the Friendly Tipster League (FTL) run by Cassini over at the Green All Over blog. I’ve paid my £52.50 and I’ll be on the list as the aptly named Daily25. The competition has grown over the last 2 years and is just a group of tipsters and bloggers vying for some ego. As always, I’m fairly confident I’ll rein (see what I did there) on all their parades and come out the winner. I’ll receive about £1,000 pounds for my troubles. Like taking candy from some middle aged men.

I believe there are still 2 places available and really, the return on investment is pretty good. From what I have seen over the last few years, these guys will be easy to beat :). So get in quick if you’re thinking of joining.

So what’s my strategy? Well as I have mentioned copious times before on this blog, I couldn’t pick a winner if it smashed me across the face. But I am more then happy to pay other people to do the hard work for me. I pay a few tipsters that have bets in the same league, we know how well multiple bets did for me last season, but what I will be doing is selecting bets if TFA, Winabob, FB investor, or FB Elite agree. I think if 3 of them have chosen the same bet then that’s a pretty good indicator. A friend (Edwin) did some analysis using WIN,TFA and FBI last season and these bets produced a 13% ROI.

I wish the other entrants luck as they vie for second place.

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Aug 13th – Aug 19th -$21,085.25 http://www.daily25.com/aug-13th-aug-19th-21085-25/ http://www.daily25.com/aug-13th-aug-19th-21085-25/#comments Mon, 18 Aug 2014 23:04:33 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1860 hat a killer week. A seriously depressing end to what at one staged looked like the start of my fightback. I guess I boasted too loudly to the gambling gods when I posted this on...

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What a killer week. A seriously depressing end to what at one staged looked like the start of my fightback. I guess I boasted too loudly to the gambling gods when I posted this on twitter on Saturday.

As you can see now, year 5 stands at $883,950.00 bet for a $25,051.40 loss. But there are lessons in every loss and for me it is my very high reliance on the AFL model. This year it has not performed to the same high standard as past years. It is still up over $40,000 so there are no complaints, but with past years always returning at least a 100% ROC, I assumed the same would happen again this season. I also need to trust in Jonno’s skills a little more in regards to his other models (apart from Tennis). His NRL and S15 models this year have been nothing short of extraordinary and like the NBL model last season, have added a big chunk of profit at fairly low stakes. If I was betting with the same size bank as I do for the AFL model, then this season would be looking very different. Next season I will be upping my stakes by 4x on both NRL and S15. NBL is a tough one as no bookie wants to take a bet over a few hundred dollars on it. I will need to test their willingness to take a bet in the first few weeks of the season.

Everything was going so well on Saturday, The Brisbane Lions beat Collingwood at odds of $6.50 and that H2H and Line win added $7,500 profit. That was the only AFL win of the entire week and there were some very big bets. The H2H ended up returning $1021 thanks to that big BL win, but the Line bets lost a massive $20,125. ATP is just loss after loss, it really is the worst thing I have seen Jonno produce, the weird thing is we continue to beat closing lines, but we continue to loss on short priced favs on a very regular basis. It lost $2,100 this week and the WTA made $900. The MLB Totals made $700 and NRL lost $750. So a very bad week for the Sportpunter service and the worst week ever for my dailyprofit subscribers. One part of the service is based of Sportpunter line bets and as only 1 won this week, all members suffered. I now know how bad tipsters feel when they have a losing week.

This week I won’t bash ClubGowi too much, he did make $2,600. By now you know my thoughts on his service. In short his results are not based in reality, but it is a winning service long-term. But we are talking in the 2-5% range at best. Now if he said this on the website and showed proof, I would be his biggest fan. Instead he states a 13.64% ROI on his site. Today I read the most in-depth article on the service by Mat who writes the Sporting Value blog. If you have thought about joining the service then you should read that post. It will give a much fairer reflection of the service then me or Keith show. Mat has gone into great details and it’s highly recommended reading.

Golf added more losses this week with Jason Kelly down $200 and Betswot losing $725. Soccer also continued its dull start to the season with Owltips losing $1,000 which should have been more but prices on some games never rebounded. I’m not sure if I will continue after this one month trial, while it is clear he works hard to try and get the best odds for his clients, I’m just not sure if it will be worth my time and effort for the season. I can’t base my decision of results as there are too few bets, so I need to base it off how the service is run, and how close I can get to the recorded results. Football Elite had his first 3 bets, all losers for a $1,500 loss.

In other news, Skeeve has started his own blog. I look forward to reading his articles. I’m sure we will disagree on a great many things in the years ahead (haha).

So another week where I touched parity before I fell off a cliff again. It’s never fun being in a big negative for extended periods of time. With the start of the soccer betting season a few weeks away, I will be starting what has historically been the worst betting period with an already substantial loss. Ahh, betting is fun isn’t it. Until next week.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Loss for the week was $21,085.25

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $883,950.00
Profit/Loss: $(25,051.40)
POT: -2.83%
Bets Placed: 1158
Won: 515
Lost: 573
Half Payout: 8
Refunded: 62
Winning %: 47.3%
Total profit per day: $322,473.44 / 1511 = $213.41
Total Turnover: $15,226,693.37
Total ROI: 2.12%

ATP – SP $178,370.00 $(19,924.62) -11.2%
week profit/loss: -2127.45

WTA – SP $123,744.00 $274.32 0.2%
week profit/loss: 914.03

AFL H2H – SP $32,161.00 $12,110.54 37.7%
week profit/loss: 1021.44

AFL Line – SP $175,781.00 $(32,770.79) -18.6%
week profit/loss: -20125

SP MLB $122,550.00 $(4,042.31) -3.3%
week profit/loss: 673.20

NRL SP $17,999.00 $5,912.10 32.8%
week profit/loss: -752.25

ClubGowi $77,849.00 $10,362.95 13.3%
week profit/loss: 2610.85

GOWI $2,157.00 $869.00 40.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Diamond Edge $75,000.00 $9,834.50 13.1%
week profit/loss: 1659.50

PCG $51,492.00 $1,368.41 2.7%
week profit/loss: -1570.57

Jason Kelly Golf $2,416.00 $(1,816.00) -75.2%
week profit/loss: -191

Betswot $4,153.00 $(2,773.00) -66.8%
week profit/loss: -725

OwlTips $5,900.00 $(2,285.00) -38.7%
week profit/loss: -973

FB Elite $2,000.00 $(1,500.00) -75.0%
week profit/loss: -1500

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Matchbook offer http://www.daily25.com/matchbook-offer/ http://www.daily25.com/matchbook-offer/#comments Fri, 15 Aug 2014 02:51:38 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1856 You will have noticed that the site no longer has affiliate banners anywhere. I will explain this in a post soon. In a nutshell, I am completely honest about bookmakers and a few affiliates closed...

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You will have noticed that the site no longer has affiliate banners anywhere. I will explain this in a post soon. In a nutshell, I am completely honest about bookmakers and a few affiliates closed down my accounts for speaking out about their practices and trying to help their customers. I will make sure that other affiliates know about their practices and also how they treat customers very soon.

Instead I will have Sportsbook reviews and these one off posts that will let you know of any good offers and good sportsbooks.

Today we have Matchbook. Pretty much Betfair but with only 1% commission. Last season they had 0% commission on the football markets and the liquidity was as good as betfair. This year might be a different story, but if you don’t have an account already then you can help yourself get better odds and help me out by signing up with the banner below.

Last year Matchbook was my 4th most used bookmaker.

They have a $£50 risk free bet for new customers.

 

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How losing gamblers can still come out ahead by using credit card rewards http://www.daily25.com/losing-gamblers-can-still-come-ahead/ http://www.daily25.com/losing-gamblers-can-still-come-ahead/#comments Wed, 13 Aug 2014 07:47:42 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1826 f you’re reading this then in all likelihood you are a losing gambling. There’s nothing wrong with that, 98% of you are. Unlike the vast majority, you are at least looking for information online and...

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losinggamblerIf you’re reading this then in all likelihood you are a losing gambling. There’s nothing wrong with that, 98% of you are. Unlike the vast majority, you are at least looking for information online and reading this site. Now most of the time I talk utter rubbish, but every now and again I will give you a bit of information that can help turn what is now a losing proposition for you into a winning one. In the past I’ve banged on about keeping track of all your bets, finding the best odds at all times and a heap of other little things that will help. Today if you’re smart (and you read this site, so you must be), you will add one more little piece of the puzzle to your betting arsenal.

I live off a very fine margin. If I can make a 2% return over a season then I should do ok. That means for every $100 I bet, I hope to get my initial $100 back and then an extra $2. That’s all I hope for, if I get $5 back instead then I have had an amazing year. Now work that out for yourself. If you bet on average $500 a week, then you should be happy with $10 profit and ecstatic if you make $25. This is most losing punters major problem. They expect that if they bet $500 a week, they should make that same amount of money. Losing punters perceptions is an article for another day, but understand that we are both working to very low margins. When margins are so small, any extra things you can do to improve them offer great value.

Today we are going to talk about frequent flyer points, credit cards reward programs and online wallet rewards programs. This is going to be a fairly detailed post. I will break down each category and then show you my plan of attack for the year ahead. My numbers may be a bit bigger then yours, but the percentages will be the same for everyone. 1% extra profit to me is the same to you.

Rewards and Cashback programs

Credit card companies and casinos/sportsbooks have long offered bonuses and rewards to customers if they use their product. It’s a simple tactic, give customers a tiny percentage back as a gift and they will love you forever. Lets look at a few examples.

  • The Qantas frequent flyer program gives FF points when you fly or use affiliated credit cards. You can then redeem these points for flights or merchandise. This is the only profitable arm of the entire Qantas company.
  • Credit card companies give you reward points or frequent flyer points for every $1 you spend on your credit card. These can be redeemed for cash or merchandise.
  • You also see the same thing in Vegas, I have never had to pay for a room or food when I head to Vegas as I am “comped”. All I need to do is play Blackjack at $25 a hand for a few hours a day (something I would do anyway), and the casino thanks me with free room and board. I know how to play perfect strategy and over 4 hours I might play close to 240 hands of Blackjack which means I have bet $6,000. I know on average I will lose about $100 per day over the long term betting this much. If I was to pay for my room and the food and entertainment each day, I would be looking at $500 to $1,000.
  • RSL clubs and Casinos in Australia also have their own rewards programs, where you get points for playing the pokie machines and these can be redeemed for food and drinks.
  • Online e-wallets also offer reward points for every transfer you make into a casino or sportsbook.
  • TAB runs its own rewards program and these points can be exchange for cash or merchandise
  • Supermarkets such as Woolworths and Coles offer rewards points based on how much you spend

So why do they do this?

Credit card companies, sportsbooks, casinos, airlines and Supermarkets all make a motza from each customer. We can easily see how sportsbooks and casinos make money from us, they have a massive inbuilt edge that most people can’t beat. The supermarkets offer points for a few reasons, they want to build loyalty, but more so they want as much information about your shopping habits as possible, so they can sell even more products to you. Credit card companies charge merchants a few percent for every transaction. All these businesses make so much money and there is fierce competition for each and every customer.

How I did things for the past 4 years

1stclassIf you’re a regular reader of this blog then you know I love to travel. Last year I lived in Europe and traveled through America before taking a 30 day cruise home (tough life I know, but someone has to live it). This last trip, my girlfriend and I only traveled business or first class everywhere we went. Normally the cost of the flights we took would have added up to $50,000. In total I paid $3,000 in taxes and fees for the flights. I used my Qantas frequent flyer points to cover the rest. Over the years I have shouted my mates a trip to Vegas using these points and upgraded a few friends who had bought economy tickets. There are ways to get the most out of these points, but I don’t want to go too deep into travel hacking as it is no longer relevant.

Years ago all banks allowed any deposit into a sportsbook (gambling transactions) to be treated like any other purchase. Over the years many banks moved to charging a cash advance fee on these deposits. I actually think this is a good thing as I believe that no one should ever bet with credit. This made the frequent flyer points worthless as the fee was much more then the points were worth. The only bank that didn’t charge a cash advance and still gave frequent flyer points was ANZ. Sadly on July 1st this year they have stopped giving FF points. I was devastated by this news. My dreams of flying first class for the rest of my life were dashed. I would never pay the stupid prices for an actual business or 1st class ticket. I now have 600,000 points left. This should get me and my girlfriend at least one more round the world trip in business class.

donationTalk about 1st world problems, here I am complaining about not being able to travel the world for free. Now I feel bad… be back in a sec

OK. Donated to a charity, great thing is I also got some credit card rewards points. haha

Now that I feel slightly less shamefull about bitching and moaning, let’s move on.

So we can’t get frequent flyer points anymore, and I assumed that was it. But there’s always more then one way to skin a cat. Below I will talk about a few more alternatives to earn that little bit extra which can help you turn a loss into at least break even.

ANZ Rewards Points

ANZ-Rewards-BlackAs i lamented the loss of my future points on twitter, I had a few people reply saying the rewards points were still working. Now these are bank specific rewards programs. You can use the points for merchandise, you can still convert them to air miles with a few airlines, but the best use of the points is to simply convert them to cash. I’ve signed up for the most expensive card (ANZ Black) as it offers 2 points for every dollar used on the card. If you have never had an ANZ card before, you can join up here and have the first year waived and also receive 50,000 points (which is about $300 in cash). I don’t get anything from ANZ, all I get is the warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing that I just made you $300 and potentially even more. You can always cancel this card before the year is out and move to a cheaper one the year after.

So I have now paid $375 for the card. There are added bonuses like free travel insurance, free entry into airport lounges and a free concierge service. You can actually ring up your concierge and ask them to do anything for you (within reason). So now if I choose to use this card for every bet I place then let’s see how much I could potentially make.

I will use last years figures and add in what I think I will turnover on horse racing this year as well. Last year I bet a total of $4.6million. If it was a simple case of depositing and withdrawing then I would have received 9.2 million points. It costs 20,620 point to receive $100 cashback. That would equal $44,616 or very close to 1% of my total turnover. That would be amazing if it was that easy, I would have moved from a 2% minimum return to 3%. Sadly most of my turnover was at Pinnacle, who have now added a rule that says any deposit must be turned over 5 times before you can withdraw. I turned over $2.3 million there last season so we need to divide that by 5 which means I could only deposit $460,000 there. That gives us a new figure of $2.76million deposited into sportsbooks which equates to $26,700 in cash backs. What this means is I can still lose $30,000 this year and I will still break even. I believe I will be able to turnover a further $1 million on the horses each year which is a further $9,700 a year.

But is there a better way? maybe. Let’s find out.

Online Wallets (Neteller and Skrill)

The only other alternative to deposit into bookmakers and receive rewards is via an online wallet. The two big ones are Neteller and Skrill. I have had a look at the skrill rewards offers and they look terrible, so I will just concentrate on the Neteller rewards.netellerrewards

As I should be able to transfer over $2,000,000 per year I would be a Diamond member. That means I will receive 1.5 points for every dollar I send or receive from a bookmaker. Sadly not all Australian bookmakers take Neteller, but lets use the same amount we used earlier ($2.76 million). We will also assume I came out even and deposited and withdraw that same amount. That means over a year I would receive 8.28 million Neteller points. It costs 6.326 million points to receive $5,000 cash back. So those points are worth about $6,550. You will receive even less on the lower levels. This is an easy decision to make but there are a few things to take into consideration. If Pinnacle charge a credit card fee then Neteller would be the best choice, but if they don’t (which I believe so), then it is much better to use the ANZ rewards card.

Some things to consider

There are many issues that could crop up that you might not think about. These are just some.

  • offers can change at any time
  • pinnacle has rules to how much u can deposit
  • other sportsbooks might charge a CC fee (betfair already does)
  • If you forget to pay off your CC bill in time you will be whacked with a fee
  • Rewards programs can change the value of points
  • You could double up with TAB, get ANZ points for deposit and also TAB points for the bets.. SCORE

What will I do?

I’ll use a combination of ANZ rewards and Neteller. I believe I can get about $10,000 – $20,000 in cash back each year which would be fantastic. So next time you are about to deposit into a sportsbook, think of the best deposit method to use to get the most from every single cent you bet.

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Aug 6th – Aug 12th +$3,301.06 http://www.daily25.com/aug-6th-aug-12th-3301-06/ http://www.daily25.com/aug-6th-aug-12th-3301-06/#comments Tue, 12 Aug 2014 04:39:55 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1816 nother quick update this week as I am snowed under with the dailyprofit service and life in general. A similar week to last week, where the overall loss was close to $20,000 before a Sunday...

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Another quick update this week as I am snowed under with the dailyprofit service and life in general. A similar week to last week, where the overall loss was close to $20,000 before a Sunday night fightback to bring it back into profit for the week. Not really going anywhere at the moment, but I guess that’s better then losing. I have over 100 articles I want to write in my to do list and I hope to get to them one day. Sadly that day isn’t today (or anytime in the near future).

adpjuveI did get some free time on Sunday and went up to Sydney to catch Juventus play the A-league all stars. Not the most exciting game ever, but still a fun experience. Talking about long lists, I have many sporting events I want to see in my lifetime and they are on my bucket list. I have ticked a large number off but would like to go on a year of sport tour around the world and tick everything off while travelling around the world with a few mates. Maybe that can be my present to myself when I reach the $1,000,000 mark.

ATP is really doing my head in, another massive loss this week and now it looks like after just a few months Jonno has been convinced to go back to the old model. I’m not sure this is the right thing as the old model showed over a very long period that it was not performing, whereas we have barely given this new one 3 months. Nothing much I can do now but take the loss and figure out if I will continue to follow something that has shown no signs of making a profit for a very long time. This weeks losses were $7,300 and the WTA made $400. AFL didn’t really go anywhere either this week, but I was reminded off the value of getting the best possible lines with AFL, as St Kilda once again beat their line by half a point. Over H2H and Line bets, AFL made $3,400. After the shocking week last week, the SP baseball model recouped half those losses by making $4,600. NRL continues on its merry ways adding a further $1,500 profit and I continue to kick myself for not following with larger stakes.

ClubGOWI lost $2,500 and lately it seems that the bets where the odds do not rebound are starting to win a lot more, so I am missing the winning bets and getting on the losing ones. Thanks to my awesome spreadsheet I can now record the best odds at the start of the match, and put those bets I do not get on because of unattainable prices as a refund and record how Keith himself would have gone. I can now see what my real profit is and what it would have been if I could bet at the “mythical odds”.  Right now over a month and a bit, Keith is $5,000 better off then me if he was betting the same $400 per unit stake size as I do. Like I have said many times before, it’s a profitable service over a very long time frame, but take his so called official results, half them, then half them again, and you are then in the ballpark of what you can hope to achieve.

The two other Football services currently running are Owltips and Football Elite. Owltips has not had a great start, and luckily I could get nowhere near the posted odds so missed some losers. I have paid for just 1 month for this service and depending on how close I can get to the odds will see me either stay or leave. So far it does not look good, but I believe they were testing new times to bet and it was a lower league for the first week. Football Elite has no such worries with the odds, sometimes I beat them, sometimes I don’t, but it usually averages out to a 1-2% worse odds. His first bet this season was a push. Mat (football Elite) has also offered a new pricing structure I had read of before but had not seen. You could pay for a full year of service for £179 or you could pay £100 upfront and then an extra £100 every time 10 points of profit have been reached. I am sticking with last years stakes of 1k per point, so if I make $10,000 profit, I will need to pay Mat an extra £100, then if I hit $20,000, all up I will have paid him £300. I like this way of paying, as my success becomes his success. I hope to pay him at least £300 or more this season.

Finally the Golf and Baseball. Jason Kelly lost $400 and Betswot lost $325. The good news is Rory winning again has pretty much wrapped up the ClubGOWI long term bet for the race to Dubai winner. That will add a very welcome $6,000 profit in November. Luckily for me I managed to match his recorded odds on that one. Diamond Edge has been on fire the past few weeks, adding $3,300 over the past 7 days and PCG added $900. I will need to see the release times for the upcoming NFL season, but in all likelihood I will need to drop this service based purely on my sleep patterns.

That’s it for another week. Still holding out hope for a strong AFL finish and to have the bank close to $50,000 profit before the football season gets into full swing in a month.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Profit for the week was $3,301.06

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $765,709.00
Profit/Loss: $(3,966.15)
POT: -0.52%
Bets Placed: 994
Won: 447
Lost: 490
Half Payout: 7
Refunded: 50
Winning %: 47.7%
Total profit per day: $343,558.69 / 1504 = $228.42
Total Turnover: $15,108,452.37
Total ROI: 2.27%

ATP – SP $164,064.00 $(17,797.17) -10.8%
week profit/loss: -7243.48

WTA – SP $107,952.00 $(639.71) -0.6%
week profit/loss: 386.67

AFL H2H – SP $27,024.00 $11,089.10 41.0%
week profit/loss: 2552

AFL Line – SP $147,106.00 $(12,645.79) -8.6%
week profit/loss: 814.75

SP MLB $107,667.00 $(4,715.51) -4.4%
week profit/loss: 4626.57

NRL SP $15,599.00 $6,664.35 42.7%
week profit/loss: 1483.05

ClubGowi $66,249.00 $7,752.10 11.7%
week profit/loss: -2499

GOWI $2,157.00 $869.00 40.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Diamond Edge $63,500.00 $8,175.00 12.9%
week profit/loss: 3318.50

PCG $43,360.00 $2,938.98 6.8%
week profit/loss: 899

Jason Kelly Golf $2,225.00 $(1,625.00) -73.0%
week profit/loss: -400

Betswot $3,428.00 $(2,048.00) -59.7%
week profit/loss: -325

OwlTips $2,500.00 $(1,312.00) -52.5%
week profit/loss: -312

FB Elite $500.00 $- 0.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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July 30th – Aug 5th -$2,103.40 http://www.daily25.com/july-30th-aug-5th-100/ http://www.daily25.com/july-30th-aug-5th-100/#comments Tue, 05 Aug 2014 02:40:00 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1806 ot the greatest week for the sports side of things. I did manage to hit a trifecta with the horses that paid out a massive return, but I am keeping those records separate. Some Sportpunter...

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Not the greatest week for the sports side of things. I did manage to hit a trifecta with the horses that paid out a massive return, but I am keeping those records separate. Some Sportpunter models are giving me real concerns lately. I will continue with them till season end, but need to look at what else is out there in regards to Tennis and Baseball. I will probably stick with Sportpunter as he very rarely has two bad seasons in a row. When I say a bad season for Sportpunter, that usually means breaking even or a small loss. Not really much to talk about this week, still working on my Football portfolio, and researching a few new Horse tipsters. You’ll also notice that there are now no affiliate ads on the site at all. I will write about that if I have time this week.

Sportpunter Tennis lost $2,000 on ATP and $1,300 on the WTA. There wasn’t much bet on the AFL but it made $2,900. The baseball totals fell off a cliff this week, A massive $9,500 loss. Never seen anything like that before. The Rugby season ended with yet another win for $1,350 profit and I will do my season review soon. The NRL continues on its winning ways with a further $500 profit.

ClubGowi has been on a fantastic run recently. $3,600 profit this week and over $10k profit for the last month and a bit. Life is a lot more relaxing when I’m not bothered with placing bets the second his emails come out. I now know I can’t beat a 5-30 second time disadvantage so don’t even bother. As long as I stick to my rules in regards to odds, then it should still be profitable.

Diamond Edge had a standout week with $4,700 profit and PCG lost $300. Again I was close in the Golf with a big bet on Sergio Garcia who led by 3 going into the final round, he crumbled and Rory took it out. At least it helps the long term GOWI bet which will return $6,000 if Rory wins the race to Dubai. Jason Kelly lost $400 and BetSWOT lost $600.

My first new add to the Soccer portfolio started this week. I am following Owltips at $100 a unit (most bets are 5 units). This service only provides bets on the Portuguese league and I am testing for a month to see if odds are attainable and if I like the general feel of the service. This week we lost the two opening bets of the season for -$1,000.

Sorry about the very short update, way too much going on at the moment. If you’re an aussie reading this, read the previous post about my new services results and second intake. You have until the end of today to join.

Good luck with this weeks punting.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Loss for the week was $2,103.40

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $620,608.00
Profit/Loss: $(7,267.21)
POT: -1.17%
Bets Placed: 790
Won: 356
Lost: 398
Half Payout: 4
Refunded: 32
Winning %: 47.2%
Total profit per day: $340,257.63 / 1497 = $227.29
Total Turnover: $14,963,351.37
Total ROI: 2.27%

ATP – SP $134,861.00 $(10,553.69) -7.8%
week profit/loss: -2017.24

WTA – SP $92,440.00 $(1,026.38) -1.1%
week profit/loss: -1328.22

AFL H2H – SP $21,629.00 $8,537.10 39.5%
week profit/loss: 1018.50

AFL Line – SP $124,060.00 $(13,460.54) -10.9%
week profit/loss: 1917.75

SP MLB $83,684.00 $(9,342.08) -11.2%
week profit/loss: -9522.94

Rugby SP $12,378.00 $(671.50) -5.4%
week profit/loss: 1360

NRL SP $12,337.00 $5,181.30 42.0%
week profit/loss: 533.75

ClubGowi $52,349.00 $10,251.10 19.6%
week profit/loss: 3588

GOWI $2,157.00 $869.00 40.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Diamond Edge $49,000.00 $4,856.50 9.9%
week profit/loss: 4682

PCG $29,785.00 $2,039.98 6.8%
week profit/loss: -285

Jason Kelly Golf $1,825.00 $(1,225.00) -67.1%
week profit/loss: -425

Betswot $3,103.00 $(1,723.00) -55.5%
week profit/loss: -625

OwlTips $1,000.00 $(1,000.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -1000

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Dailyprofit service results. (and second intake) http://www.daily25.com/dailyprofit-service-results-second-intake/ http://www.daily25.com/dailyprofit-service-results-second-intake/#comments Mon, 04 Aug 2014 02:56:08 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1769 Last month I decided to team up with 2 friends and create the Tipster service I would have loved to use when I was getting started. Today I see hundreds of tipster services around that...

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Last month I decided to team up with 2 friends and create the Tipster service I would have loved to use when I was getting started. Today I see hundreds of tipster services around that are a complete joke, I could post about dodgy tipsters every minute of every day and never run out of articles. It is so easy and inexpensive to set up a website and take payments online these days, and with a tiny bit of marketing, it’s easy to con a few people into following a service. These guys are eventually found out, but then they just open up a new site and start over again.

Instead of whinging about these idiots, I’ll just create the best product possible and take all their potential customers. Not only will I make their dodgy venture worth less money, I’ll also help the people who used to sign up to these crooks a healthy profit.

Last month I sent an email out to my Australian subscribers and asked for 20 people who would like to test the service. I sent the email around midnight and when I woke up 8 hours later, I had more then 20 people who wanted in. I wanted to keep the numbers low so I could help everyone individually and make sure the service was a viable product.

Dailyprofit Performance Month 1

So how have members done so far? Pretty good if you ask me. In the first month we have placed $11,191.74 worth of bets, we have made a profit of $1,397.38 which is a return on investment of 12.49%. Members also have an extra $140 in freebets they can easily convert to $100 in real money.

profit

I record all odds 2 hours after the bets are released. I make sure the results recorded are the worst possible so that even the laziest member will at least equal the quoted profit. This service is unique in that for the majority of the bets, the odds will not move. If you can find me any other tipster service where even the average guys can match the quoted results then I will buy you many beers.

About the Service

The Dailyprofit service is a three pronged attack on the Australian bookmakers. I have no doubt that over the next 6 months, my members will take well over $1,000,000 off the bookies. The brilliant thing is, if you’re too much of a tight arse to pay the monthly fee, for the most part you can do this yourself. I’ll even break everything down for you to make it as easy as possible.

The service has 3 unique types of bets.

  1. Risk-free bets
  2. Value Bets
  3. Sportpunter $2 lines

Members can choose which ones to follow based on their risk profile and how long they have been in the game.

Risk-Free bets

It costs a lot sbetaflrefundof money for a bookmaker to get a new customer. They will happily pay $1,000 to get a new customer to sign up to their website as they know that over the years that customer will lose many times that amount back to them. This is known as CAC (Customer acquisition cost). To entice someone to join them, they offer sign up bonuses and ongoing bonuses. You will have seen countless ads on tv showing you these type of bonus offers. Sportsbet is currently running one where if you bet on an AFL team and they lose by less then 20 points you get your bet refunded. Sportsbet has already refunded $1.32 million to customers. This is a tiny price to pay for a bookmaker who makes over $500 million a year and pays hardly any tax.

sbetcolBy using our great friend MATHS, we can make a 100% guaranteed profit on a lot of these types of offers. Here is the exact details of how we made members $80 on just 1 game this week. We decided to combine two different offers on the Collingwood versus Port Adelaide match. Tomwaterhouse had an offer on Collingwood to win at $3, you could place up to $50 on this match, and as mentioned previously, sportsbet has a refund if your team loses by 20 points or less. We told our members to bet a certain amount on both sides and depending on how the match finished, these were the potential returns.

  • Port Adelaide win: $11 Profit
  • Collingwood win 1-20: $80 Profit
  • Collingwood win 21+: $5 Profit

No matter the result we were going to make a profit. Luckily for members, Collingwood won by 6 and they made $80. This was just 1 of many risk free bets they made over the weekend. These offers will keep coming for many years to come. Some bookmakers will eventually stop you from betting on them if you take advantage of all of them, but we have our own little tricks that should keep these available a bit longer then the bookies would like.

These bets are great for those just starting out and who don’t want to risk any of their money on actual bets. It’s a great first step into taking the bookies money and we hope that this will add about $3,000 – $5,000 profit per year for members.

How to do it yourself: Every day you just need to go to every aussie bookie and look for any offers, put these all into a spreadsheet and then try and figure out how to use the offers. This will take you about an hour most days and then 2-3 hours on Fri & Sat. All up you are looking at 44 hours a month of effort. Or you can let us do all the work for much less then $1 an hour. How much is your time worth to you?

Value bets

Sometimes the bookies will offer a great bet that we can’t use in a risk free way. These bets become value bets as the odds available are much higher then they should be and therefore offer value. Value bets are what I have made all my profits from, I hope that every single bet I place has value. In my case with pure betting, I live off 2% value long term. These guys offer much higher value, usually 50% or more. Let’s use another example from this week. Betfair decided to offer customer a multi bet on the Sydney Swans and Manly Sea eagles to both win. You were allowed to bet $25 and they offered odds of $3. If you found the best odds from all bookmakers and combined them into a multi, you would have received odds of $1.80. That means Betfair offered you 150% value on the real odds. These bets don’t always win, but this week it did and members walked away with $50 profit for the 10 seconds it took to place the bet.

Over the long term, these bets will make a very healthy profit. Over the years I have learnt to see which ones offer value and which do not. I have written posts before about how much of a joke the 1st try scorer markets are. We hope to add between $2,000-$4,000 profit per year with these value bets.

Sportpunter $2 lines

I go on and on about how great Sportpunter is every week, I’m beginning to sound like a broken record. But when a service makes me over $300,000 in 4 years, then what else am I meant to do. But like anything that is great, it costs a fair bit of money. For most people looking to get into the game, Sportpunter is just way too expensive. It really is for the pros and guys who like to bet a bit more. I’ve always wanted to work with Jonno as we are great friends and we have talked about many crazy ways to make that happen (we were even talking about setting up our own sportsbook). When I was coming up with this service I realised I used his bets in a certain way that others could use them that offered less risk and would not impact the lines.

Many bookmakers offer $2 lines for AFL NRL, and S15. Normally these line bets pay $1.91. With $2 lines, you just need to hit 50% of your picks and you will break even. Again, this is a way to entice people to come and bet with them. Sportpunter line bets hit well over 50% and are closer to 60% and this offers a very healthy profit potential. This part of the service will have the most variance but will also offer the highest profit potential. We hope to add between $3,000 – $6,000 profit per year with these selections.

These bets are recorded as $100 bets, but you can easily bet up to and over $300 on these selections, so the profit shown can easily be increased.

Please note: That this part of the service may be closed at any time if Jonno feels it is impacting on his own business. The recommended bets are sent out at least 4 hours after Sportpunter clients receive the bets and members do not get the game percentages, they only get my interpretation of the Sportpunter lines. Even after SP clients have taken a lot of the value out of these lines, I still believe they offer a heap of value at the $2 lines.

Join the second intake

3pronged

There is a long way to go in regards to improving the service and seeing if it is going to be a viable product. As always, I like to take things slow and test everything before releasing it to everyone. We are now ready to take on 25 new members for the second month. If you’re an Aussie and would like to join the second month of the testing phase then subscribe to the waiting list below. I will email everyone who joins in the next 48 hours then it will be the first 25 people who pay the monthly fee ($30 is the fee this month, it will be more when the service goes live).

We will continue to build this service as we get more members. When it reaches 100 members, I will have an app commission that will send notifications when bets are advised, when they come online, and also reminders just before games start. Over the months, the app will then be used to record your bets and offer many other tools to help. We currently give all members a spreadsheet to use to record bets and people have found this an amazing way to record their other bets too. We are also creating a course to show how to take advantage of sign up bonuses for people just starting out. I hope to not only make you a healthy profit, but to also teach you everything you need to know to make your own way in this gambling arena.

 

Intake now closed. I will open it up again in September. Thanks.

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Horse Racing Results 19 March – 31 July 2014 http://www.daily25.com/horse-racing-results-19-march-31-july-2014/ http://www.daily25.com/horse-racing-results-19-march-31-july-2014/#comments Fri, 01 Aug 2014 02:59:54 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1753 his is the first update on how I have done over the first 4 and a bit months since I started following Horse racing tipsters. I have decided to update the results once a month, so...

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This is the first update on how I have done over the first 4 and a bit months since I started following Horse racing tipsters. I have decided to update the results once a month, so you can expect the next update on September 1st.

I have decided to keep the names of these services private for a few reason. Firstly I don’t want you rushing into any of these services before I know for sure they will make you a profit long term. Horse racing is a very different beast to sports betting. With such high average odds, it takes many thousands of bets to see a statistically significant number. Also I’m not sure what impact a large number of new bettors would have on the prices. If you do a bit of research you can easily figure out the services I am using. Once I decide not to continue following a service I will also name it and the reasons why I stopped following.

I will talk about each service in much more detail over the coming years, but for now here is a rundown of each service.

Smartform

This is the standard that every other service now has to stand up to. It was the first service I joined and was by far the best service I have seen. While the results in the end were nothing to write home about, the way the service was run, the odds quoted, and just how easy it was to follow has really spoiled me for any other service. Sadly Daniel ended the service last week for personal reasons and I will do a full write up on why this service is the one I will compare all other services to. There is also an unofficial SF column which was me using his ratings in the final few week to place my own bets.

FL

I actually quit this service a month ago after testing it for 3 months. No odds are given when emails are sent, just some basic rules on whether to back it for a win or a place. Then when I compared the odds I received to the recorded odds I saw a massive discrepancy. I asked a few times how I should be following the service, if I should be betting early, late, BOB or any other way. The reply was that it didn’t really matter, it would even out over the long term. This did not instill me with great confidence as if there is one thing I have learnt, it is that getting the best possible odds is one of the most important aspects of making a profit. After talking with a member who has been with them over a year and being told that long term he is in profit simply betting BOB, I have decided to give them another go and make it as easy as possible on myself by betting just BOB.

Dominic Bernie

Dom is a famous figure in betting and Betfair had hired him to put up his weekly picks. I followed for a month and then I guess Betfair or Dom ended the relationship.

Trialfiles

A service that I only followed for a week. It’s a free service and apparently has done quite well. No odds to take are given and no recording is done that I could see. As I have recently joined a similar paid service, I have stopped following this one for now as the workload was too much.

CTS

Follows the same principles as the Trialfiles service and has been running for about 18 months. Another that does not give suggested odds, but you can use the bet size to figure out what they feel the right odds should be. Not a great start and I will need to continue comparing my odds to their recorded odds to see if this is profitable, or just another case of recording unattainable odds.

BDM

A very new service that gives out ratings but no staking plan. I have learnt a fair bit over the past 4 months and have created my own calculator and staking plan for the service. Early results are pleasing.

RB

This is another ratings service, but with an sms service for punters who want a simple way to follow. The sms service is the RB column and the RB Unofficial column is my use of the ratings. I like and dislike this service. It is a hell of a lot of hard work, that’s why I like it. It is really only for people who have time to keep an eye on the races and constantly check odds. The owner makes a big deal of how fair the service is, but the odds recording in my opinion is not fair at all. The recording is based on the SMS service, but the quoted odds are always the best early price, or the best late price on Betfair. Long term the ROI stands at close to 15% for the sms service, but you need to take 5-10% of this to get a realistic figure. The sms service helped at the start when I had no idea what I was doing, but I see myself using them less and less and moving to using the ratings and my own judgment. As you can see, the official results are shocking, while my own bets are going very well (sadly betting much lower). I have spoken to the owner of the service on the phone a number of times and he is always very forthright with me, he is also happy to chat for quite a while.

 

That’s all the services I have or currently follow, I am looking at adding one other, but for the next few months that will be it. I will do full reviews of each tipster over the coming months and go into detail about past results, odds recording, service price, customer service and so on. I will also break down my banks and unit size for each service.

The results for each service are below. These services are all extremely expensive and the  monthly fees have not been added to my results. I will eventually start adding them as a 1 time losing bet each month.

Stats
Total bet amount: $411,443.00
Profit/Loss: $(963.42)
POT: -0.23%

Bets
Bets Placed: 1075
Won: 199
Lost: 848
Refunded: 28
Winning %: 18.5%

Tipster
Wagers
Net Profit
Return
Wins
Bets
Win %
Monthly P/L
Smartform$111,959.00$7,420.006.6%3512927.1%$7,420.00
FL$43,501.00$(1,137.50)-2.6%2711224.1%$(1,137.50)
Dominic Bernie$9,226.00$450.004.9%104920.4%$450.00
Unofficial SF$8,674.00$(3,854.00)-44.4%3466.5%$(3,854.00)
Trialfiles$4,160.00$(1,333.00)-32.0%53215.6%$(1,333.00)
CTS$28,437.00$(4,070.12)-14.3%178719.5%$(4,070.12)
BDM$14,020.00$3,741.2526.7%84020.0%$3,741.25
RB$164,636.00$(18,584.55)-11.3%6041914.3%$(18,584.55)
RB Unofficial$26,830.00$16,404.5061.1%3413325.6%$16,404.50

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Horse Racing – a new avenue http://www.daily25.com/horse-racing-new-avenue/ http://www.daily25.com/horse-racing-new-avenue/#comments Thu, 31 Jul 2014 00:46:48 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1743 hen it comes to betting, Horse racing is still the most bet on sport in the world, Sports betting is catching up very quickly, but unlike sports, there would be no Horse racing without betting....

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When it comes to betting, Horse racing is still the most bet on sport in the world, Sports betting is catching up very quickly, but unlike sports, there would be no Horse racing without betting. When I started 4 years ago I was betting on the UK horses and my accounts were quickly shutdown. There are a number of good UK tipsters but after a few months you will no longer be able to get on at the correct odds and I have never found a system that can beat closing lines. After 6 months of betting on horses I knew there was no longer any point and just concentrated on sports betting. I never really looked at the Australian market and I now believe that it cost me a fair bit of potential profit.

Around April when I decided that the site was getting a lot of traffic and I could potentially make a viable business out of it, I thought as I was going to be sitting in front of my computer all day anyway, I may as well also look into betting horses. I also noticed the push for a change in the rules in regards to getting a bet on and joined the small vocal group that was trying to shake things up in what looked like a dying industry. As you’re probably aware, as of September 1, any bookie who wishes to use the NSW racing product will need to take bets from everyone to lose $2,000. Any banned accounts (and I have many), will need to be reopened and I will be free to take up any fixed price they offer. It is only a matter of time before the other states see the increased turnover and fees that NSW racing will achieve and then add these same rules to their product. Eventually we will all be able to bet on every race to win a set amount and never have the fear of having our accounts closed. Why this was never the case in the first place is a disgrace, but that is how the UK corporates choose to run their service.

So knowing that I would have the time, knowing that the rules were going to change and talking to others who had been making a profit for a very long time, I decided to dip my toe into the wonderful world of Aussie racing. I assumed with my knowledge of the sports industry and my skills in finding good tipster, I would be able to translate that pretty easily into Horse racing. What I found was pretty much the same old stuff, 99% of so called tipsters blatantly lying about odds, poorly and shoddy run services and thankfully, a few potentially profitable tipsters. Over the coming months I will talk about everything I have found.

The reason I have not written about this sooner was that the people who recommended certain services did not want me sharing them on the site. Anyone that gives me information knows that I will never share it unless they tell me it is ok to. Ahh the secrets I know, and all these secrets will never become public knowledge as I was told them in confidence. If you tell me something and say it is not to be shared, it never will be.

Over the last 4 months, I have tested about 7 services. In that time I have placed close to $400,000 worth of bets and made $1,600. After the massive monthly fees these guys charge, I am sitting on a loss. I have had a few accounts shutdown in that time and dread to think how many more would have been shutdown if I was winning. In that time I found 1 perfect service (which decided to shutdown last week after 12 years of service), some crap and a few with potential.

I am not sure if I will share the service names on this site or just call them service X,Y,Z as the odds available drop rapidly when bets are advised and I don’t want to compete against even more people. Also I know that a few of you will just blindly follow what I do and without the hard work of getting the best odds, you will lose a lot of money. So I am also saving you from yourself. As none of these have made a notable profit, it would be unwise to follow any of them anyway.

As the average odds on Horse racing are very high, variance plays a massive factor. It is very likely that my weekly swings will be massive. I am not sure if I will post my results fortnightly or monthly yet. I will start this Friday with my results for the past four months and then start updating every 2 weeks, but if it becomes too time consuming, then I will move to a monthly review. My goals over the next year is to find 3-4 good tipsters and to make close to $100,000 a year.

If you follow any good services, then I would love to hear from you.

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July 23rd – July 29th +$40,334.79 http://www.daily25.com/july-23rd-july-29th-40334-79/ http://www.daily25.com/july-23rd-july-29th-40334-79/#comments Mon, 28 Jul 2014 13:06:10 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1728 oly shitballs. We have a new record weekly profit, and a very happy camper. While not yet in profit for year 5, this week was one of those rare times where every single bet seemed to...

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Holy shitballs. We have a new record weekly profit, and a very happy camper. While not yet in profit for year 5, this week was one of those rare times where every single bet seemed to win. The AFL still caused some palpitations with both big bets going behind before storming back for great wins and a 100% week. Keith who runs ClubGowi had one of those weeks too, and I was so confident last night, I placed his golf bet to win instead of the much shorter priced market he advised. The ATP even chipped in with some winners. This result won’t be beaten for a long time I feel, but with Soccer still to come and over $100k bet on that each weekend, there’s every chance I might exceed this milestone sometime this season. As I like to always see both sides of the coin, if I can win $40,000 in a week then in all likelihood I can lose the same amount, so when that week comes, I will need to refer back to this post. As I know this is a very rare event (hopefully less rare in year 5), I will take a moment to smile, dance a jig and maybe spend some of the winnings on something special. It’s moments like these I wish I collected things or liked sporting memorabilia. Damn you minimalism.

jig2OK, I’m back from my jig. Moving on to the results. As you can imagine, it was Sportpunter who made up most of the profit. I’m actually happier for the beta testers of the new dailyprofit service as when I do well with Sportpunter, they do well too. I will post about the new service soon, but we are 24 days in and by following all bets and with odds recorded 2 hours after posting, members who followed the risk free, value bets and SP $2 lines are sitting on $930 profit with a further $140 worth of free bets they can have some fun with. This really is such a simple service that virtually guarantees a nice steady profit of $10,000 per season. Can’t wait to take the first million off the bookies.

AFL was back with a vengeance this week. Every bet on this split round was a winner and all up we added $25,560 profit with the H2H and Line bets. I said last week that the recent slump didn’t bother me and this is why. I know you may not believe it, but the ATP actually made a nice profit this week. $4,500 added to the kitty, but the WTA lost $2,200.  All other SP models had profitable weeks. The MLB Totals made $1,000, Rugby had 1 bet for 1 win and $740 profit and the NRL had a great week with $2,500 profit. Also a big Happy Birthday to Jonno for yesterday. I’m sure he had a great day with his beloved Hawthorn getting very very lucky on the weekend against the Swans and all his other services doing well. He is getting old now, I might need to look into getting some type of tipster life insurance.

ClubGOWI had an amazing week, capped off last night by Tim Clark winning in Canada. $7,600 profit and some good signs for the new football season. Diamond Edge made $1,000 while I missed some early morning winners for PCG which ended the week down $300. BetSWOT had a small interest in the Golf and lost $150.

A week that helped steady the ship. Another poor week and I could have been staring down the barrel of a $60,000 deficit before the first month of year 5 was over. Instead we are back to just a small loss and I’m ready to attack August. I have been swapping emails with a few readers in regards to strategies for the upcoming football season, I’m fairly optimistic about this season, I won’t be setting such ridiculous goals, and won’t be allowing one service to have such an impact on the overall results. The hope now is for AFL to finish of the year with a strong showing and give me a $50,000 buffer to deal with the soccer swings.

Until next week. Good luck on whatever your betting on, unless you’re betting against me, then I hope you lose badly.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total profit for the week was $40,334.79

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $501,566.00
Profit/Loss: $(5,163.81)
POT: -1.03%
Bets Placed: 615
Won: 279
Lost: 306
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 27
Winning %: 47.7%
Total profit per day: $342,361.03 / 1490 = $229.77
Total Turnover: $14,844,309.37
Total ROI: 2.31%

ATP – SP $109,820.00 $(8,536.45) -7.8%
week profit/loss: 4473.10

WTA – SP $68,937.00 $301.84 0.4%
week profit/loss: -2173.08

AFL H2H – SP $20,159.00 $7,518.60 37.3%
week profit/loss: 7809.40

AFL Line – SP $109,520.00 $(15,378.29) -14.0%
week profit/loss: 17750.08

SP MLB $66,081.00 $180.86 0.3%
week profit/loss: 1000.51

Rugby SP $10,678.00 $(2,031.50) -19.0%
week profit/loss: 740

NRL SP $9,152.00 $4,647.55 50.8%
week profit/loss: 2506.55

ClubGowi $42,549.00 $6,663.10 15.7%
week profit/loss: 6208

GOWI $2,157.00 $869.00 40.3%
week profit/loss: 1426

Diamond Edge $35,000.00 $174.50 0.5%
week profit/loss: 1038.50

PCG $23,635.00 $2,324.98 9.8%
week profit/loss: -294.27

Jason Kelly Golf $1,400.00 $(800.00) -57.1%
week profit/loss: 0

Betswot $2,478.00 $(1,098.00) -44.3%
week profit/loss: -150

The post July 23rd – July 29th +$40,334.79 appeared first on Daily25.

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