Daily25 Betting Blog http://www.daily25.com Trying to make $250 per day with sports betting Wed, 22 Oct 2014 00:09:17 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0 Tom’s $25 million Melbourne Cup offer: Worst odds ever http://www.daily25.com/toms-25-million-melbourne-cup-offer-worst-odds-ever/ http://www.daily25.com/toms-25-million-melbourne-cup-offer-worst-odds-ever/#comments Tue, 21 Oct 2014 23:57:39 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2117 y now you have been bombarded by yet another tom waterhouse marketing blitz. This time it’s his “amazing” offer for the Melbourne Cup. Just pay $10, pick the first 10 horses in the exact finishing...

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By now you have been bombarded by yet another tom waterhouse marketing blitz. This time it’s his “amazing” offer for the Melbourne Cup. Just pay $10, pick the first 10 horses in the exact finishing order and $25 million dollars is yours. How he manages to get through the ads without bursting into a Dr Evil laugh is beyond me. You will have also noticed that tom has moved from the old slogan of “What punters want” to “This is betting now” or something stupid along those lines. But he seems to really be going full force with the now bit, meaning that betting now means only allowing mug punters to bet and not even complying with rules that almost all other bookmakers in the country have (NSW racing min bet rules). The William Hill group have made a huge error letting tom lead their business in Australia. Their reputation will be a shambles by the end of his reign and I doubt they will be able to repair the damage he has done.

tom25milnongambleI asked on twitter if anybody wanted to break down the numbers on this offer for me. Lenny and Matt obliged and sent me both very detailed articles. I have smushed them together to come up with the following post.

The offer

Select the first 10 runners across the line in order for a chance to win up to $25 million. $10 per entry and a maximum of 10 entries per person.

This really works out at odds of $2.5 million per dollar bet. By making each bet cost $10, he can make the final prize seem much bigger. Also I’m amused that he will only allow a maximum of 10 bets, this offer is so impossible that he is pocketing ~100% on every bet, again this is in place to make it seem like the offer is amazing. Let’s look at the real numbers.

The Maths

Lenny: There are a few ways to look at this mathematically – the easiest being to work out the odds if you were to select your top 10 runners in a random draw. Remembering that the selections need to be in order, and assuming we avoid the almost traditional Cup day scratchings, you have a 1 in 24 chance of selecting the winner.  Then a 1 in 23 chance of selecting 2nd (given the same horse can’t finish 1st and 2nd) and so forth – down to a 1 in 15 chance of selecting 10th.

The odds of this – 24 x 23 x 22 etc all the way down to x 15 – are one in 7,117,005,772,800. Or 1 in 7 TRILLION. To put that into some level of perspective: if every single human being alive today in the entire world had 1000 unique guesses, there’d still be no guarantee Tom would have to pay out his $25 million.

But of course, not every horse has an equal chance, so we’ll use a somewhat more complex method to come up with what is close to the correct probability. It’s a little convoluted, sure, but we’ll use last year’s Melbourne Cup odds (normalised to 100%, for accuracy) to work out the approximate chances of the favoured top 10 – i.e. the top 10 favoured horses, in order – actually occurring, based on the odds (sourced from last year’s Sportsbet.com.au sweep).

Fiorente was $7 in a ~124% market; this equates to an 11.445% chance. If you take Fiorente out and re-adjust the odds to again 100%, and assume the market that left is a rough estimate of running 2nd, it shows Mount Athos as an 11.309% chance of running 2nd. You can take Mount Athos out to get 3rd’s percentages etc etc, all the way down to the chance of Seville running 10th being 11.241%.

I’ve run the numbers on this and when you combine all the percentage chances of this top 10 happening in the favoured order – so the odds of any other order are longer – then it is a 1 in 6,905,774,345 chance. That’s one in 6.9 BILLION. Pretty big unders to accept $25 million for a $10 investment with those odds.

Steve: There are always numerous ways to look at a maths problem and Matt takes a different approach. Instead of taking last years top 10, he uses this years top 10 prices from Betfair.

Matt: Let’s assume there are 24 starters. I have taken prices from Betfair for the first 24 runners in market order (prices recorded on Saturday night) and have scaled the market to 100%. This is what it looks like.

  1. Admire Ratki – $5.27 = 18.98%
  2. Protectionist – $7.94 = 12.60%
  3. Lucia Valentina – $8.86 = 11.29%
  4. Fawlkner – $14.18 = 7.05%
  5. Mutual Regard – $20.37 = 4.91%
  6. Who Shot Thebarman – $21.23 = 4.71%
  7. Junoob – $23.92 = 4.18%
  8. Red Cadaux – $26.60 = 3.76%
  9. Cavalry Man – $26.60 = 3.76%
  10. Araldo – $31.95 = 3.13%
  11. Willing Foe – $31.95 = 3.13%
  12. Contributor – $48.54 = 2.06%
  13. Van Percy – $48.54 = 2.06%
  14. Signoff – $48.54 = 2.06%
  15. Brambles – $48.54 = 2.06%
  16. Amralah – $48.54 = 2.06%
  17. Ambivalent – $57.47 = 1.74%
  18. Silent Acheiver – $57.47 = 1.74%
  19. Gatewood – $62.11 = 1.61%
  20. Dandino – $62.11 = 1.61%
  21. Royal Diamond – $62.11 = 1.61%
  22. Opinion – $66.23 = 1.51%
  23. Sertorius – $79.37 = 1.26%
  24. Green Moon – $98.04 = 1.02%

To make this easy, I will be showing the mathematics for the top 10 favourites to finish in that order. Admire Ratki is priced at $5.27 after his impressive Caulfield Cup victory yesterday so he is a 1 in 5.27 or an 18.98% chance to finish first. Easy. Now, how do we work out what Protectionist’s chances of running 2nd and beating the rest of the field are? It’s actually not that difficult. We just need to determine what price Protectionist would be if Admire Ratki wasn’t in the field (as he doesn’t need to beat Admire Ratki). This is determined the same way as a “Without Favourite” market or if Admire Ratki was scratched and a deduction was applied. As the market above is at 100% we can deduct 18.98% from Protectionist’s price of $7.94 which comes to $6.43. We can now say Protectionist would be paying $6.43 to beat the remaining 22 runners.

We do the same thing with Lucia Valentina but deduct Admire Ratki’s 18.98% and Protectionist’s 12.6% from her price of $8.86 bringing it into $6.06. Lucia Valentina is paying $6.06 to beat home the remaining 21 runners.

If we wanted to calculate the chance of the 3 favourites running 1st, 2nd and 3rd in marker order we would multiply $5.27 (Admire Ratki’s winning odds) by $6.43 (Protectionist’s odds of beating the other 22 runners) and by $6.06 (Lucia Valentina’s odds of beating the remaining 21 runners) showing us the trifecta is a $205.35 chance based on the above odds.

I have done the same calculations all the way down to 10th favourite Araldo and this is what it looks like –

18.98% ($5.27) x 15.55% ($6.43) x 16.50% ($6.06) x 12.35% ($8.10) x 9.80% ($10.20) x 10.44% ($9.58) x 10.33% ($9.68) x 10.25% ($9.76) x 11.42% ($8.76) x 10.50% ($9.52)

=

a 1 in 1,280,593,053 chance (that’s a one in one billion two hundred and eighty million five hundred and ninety three thousand and fifty three chance) of the top 10 favorites running in market order in the 2014 Melbourne Cup.

Steve: Matts odds of 1.2 billion is simply the odds of the top 10 finishing in their rated order. I would say we can take Lenny’s numbers from last years results and Matt’s from this years odds and come up with a middling figure of around a 1 in 4 Billion chance.

Conclusion

This offer is a joke and while a bit of fun for the mug punter, it is probably the biggest ripoff in terms of odds I have ever seen. tom could have offered $100 million as the prize money or even $1 billion and it would still be worthless. The funny thing is, even with the odds stacked so heavily in his favour, he has still insured himself against any loss. He has paid an insurance company a small amount (I would guess no more then $50k) and if someone does get lucky then the insurance company will pay out the $25 million. They would spend even more on the marketing of the offer and it will result in many signups of mug punters. So once again a smart marketing move, but again just showing how he thinks of the betting public (as idiots).

The odds of winning OZ lotto are 1 in 45 million and the odds of winning Powerball are 1 in 76 million. By charging $10 per pick, the odds of winning tom’s offer is 1 in 40 Billion. When numbers get this big, people’s eyes glaze over. Let’s put it simply. If tom was a decent guy (bahaha) and wanted to simply break even on this offer, he would need to offer a prize pool of $40 billion dollars, and if you won it you would become the 8th richest person in the world.

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Oct 15th – Oct 21st +$8,785.59 http://www.daily25.com/oct-15th-oct-21st-8000/ http://www.daily25.com/oct-15th-oct-21st-8000/#comments Mon, 20 Oct 2014 21:00:09 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2112 hat was another big week on the blog. More records broken as we hit 2,000 unique visitors in a day. Great to see so many people are actually reading stuff that will hopefully help with...

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That was another big week on the blog. More records broken as we hit 2,000 unique visitors in a day. Great to see so many people are actually reading stuff that will hopefully help with their betting. Tomorrow we will have another article about the maths behind Tom Waterhouses offer for the Melbourne cup.  Two readers took the time to explain the maths behind it, so I will try and merge both documents they sent me into one super blog post. I thought by asking others to write for the blog that it would give me back some time, I guess not.

Last week I said I would never miss another golf bet, umm yeah, well…. new dad and all. I managed to get most of them inplay before they teed off. They all lost. I didn’t think having Ollie home was that much of a disturbance or that my sleep patterns had been affected. Once again I was wrong. On Saturday nights, about 2 hours before the games I see if there are any bets in the correct odds range and bet them, then I usually come back 15 minutes before the games start and go through the remaining games to see if the odds have improved. This Saturday after placing the initial bets, I sat down and watched the early game and woke up an hour after all games had finished, luckily most games hadn’t come in and would never have been a bet and the ones that did lost. So I saved a little. A Saturday afternoon nap will be something that will be added to my routine. I also noticed a lot less odds movement when Mike (Winabobatoo) released this week. I’m guessing it’s because a few members have left after a poor start and the fact that UK members can no longer bet at Pinnacle, whatever the reason, it is a good sign. Now for the service to start winning.

This week was a return to form for Sportpunter. NBL made $6,500, NFL $4,900 and NHL $1,800. Even in the AFL off season, I’m relying on SP to keep me afloat. That means everything else lost.

Well not ClubGowi, with $2,900 profit. I also enjoyed the in play notes on the Japanese games. As I was at the computer I could take advantage of them and I did stake pretty low, but they did seem pretty good. Diamond Edge had the 1 bet for a $450 profit, but PCG continues to keep losing with a further $1,500 lost this week. Once I get the time I will be interviewing Tom to see what has gone wrong this season. As mentioned earlier, the Golf lost $800.

Soccer had it’s ups and downs also, mostly downs. But take into account that I missed some bets due to lack of sleep. So these figures are only mine. The official results will be different. Football Elite lost $1,650. Football Value lost $500. TFA made $1,600 while Football Investor Combo and Euro lost $3,900. Winabobatoo lost $600. I have also started my own personal bets and these lost $1,240 this week and I also bet on any odds that go out over 20%, this week they made $500.

Very happy with that result, juggling parenthood and betting, and the blog and the service and dealing with hundreds of emails and everything else that comes with life is quite exhausting at times. Since starting the Horse racing and having to be sat in front of a computer at least 3 days a week, I have started to pile on the flab. I’ll be making some adjustments to make sure that doesn’t continue to happen. I’m sure that’s an upcoming post and you will all get to see some photos of me fat.. you guys are so lucky. Until tomorrow..

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Profit for the week was $8,785.59

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $1,875,190.93
Profit/Loss: -$39,945.08
POT: -2.13%
Bets Placed: 2840
Won: 1045
Lost: 1347
Half Payout: 26
Refunded: 422
Winning %: 43.7%
Total profit per day: $307,579.76 / 1574 = $195.41
Total Turnover: $16,217,934.30
Total ROI: 1.90%

NBL Totals $6,136.00 $(5,698.00) -92.9%
week profit/loss: -2081

NBL Line $23,024.00 $1,075.90 4.7%
week profit/loss: 8538.90

SP MLB $252,327.00 $9,385.43 3.7%
week profit/loss: 0

NFL Totals $55,024.00 $9,371.72 17.0%
week profit/loss: 4863.89

NHL Totals $12,789.00 $2,033.86 15.9%
week profit/loss: 1785.66

ClubGowi $244,013.00 $7,436.96 3.0%
week profit/loss: 2511

GOWI $5,182.00 $659.00 12.7%
week profit/loss: 390

Diamond Edge $149,500.00 $2,422.00 1.6%
week profit/loss: 454.50

PCG $127,717.00 $(8,009.21) -6.3%
week profit/loss: -1523

Jason Kelly Golf $7,191.93 $(5,801.93) -80.7%
week profit/loss: -425.93

Betswot $7,463.00 $(5,708.00) -76.5%
week profit/loss: -350

FB Elite $14,500.00 $(172.50) -1.2%
week profit/loss: -1640

Football Value $14,000.00 $(1,815.00) -13.0%
week profit/loss: -490

TFA 21 $56,981.00 $(4,946.00) -8.7%
week profit/loss: -346

TFA 41 $59,600.00 $(3,003.50) -5.0%
week profit/loss: 915

6-21-31 $32,707.00 $818.22 2.5%
week profit/loss: 1467.72

D1-D6 $18,000.00 $165.00 0.9%
week profit/loss: 1080

E1-E6 $3,000.00 $830.00 27.7%
week profit/loss: -1500

Mike Lindley $15,500.00 $(2,945.00) -19.0%
week profit/loss: -1000

WINABOBATOO $71,000.00 $(8,634.00) -12.2%
week profit/loss: 374

FBI combo $30,500.00 $6,832.00 22.4%
week profit/loss:-870

FBI Euro $3,000.00 $(3,000.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss:-3000

Odds pushed out $4,500.00 $565.00 12.6%
week profit/loss: 555

Personal $1,240.00 $(1,240.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -1240

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Trail Files/Horse Racing Genius Update. http://www.daily25.com/trail-fileshorse-racing-genius-update/ http://www.daily25.com/trail-fileshorse-racing-genius-update/#comments Thu, 16 Oct 2014 05:03:12 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2084 Yesterdays post created a bit of a stir. Most complaints against tipster services are buried deep in forums very few people read, or if posted on the tipsters facebook page or website then they are...

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Yesterdays post created a bit of a stir. Most complaints against tipster services are buried deep in forums very few people read, or if posted on the tipsters facebook page or website then they are usually deleted. I’ve built up this site over the past 4 and a bit years, at the start no one came because I was just one more moron who thought they could make money gambling. They were right, I was just like the hundreds of other blogs that started up with stars in their eyes thinking this path was the road to riches. Now statistically one out of those many hundreds would likely actually make money. Just like the tipping industry, where we have thousands of tipsters, over a year almost half will look like geniuses. For them to do it over 2 years then cuts it down to half again, and as we continue to say a 5 year period, we have only a handful if any tipsters that have proven that what they do can not be attributed to luck. I believe over the past 4 and a half years, I can now attribute my success to more then luck. I have learnt so much in that time and I make fewer mistakes (but still many) that cost me profit. My goal to reach $1 million profit by purely following tipster services is 1/3rd of the way there and I’m sure over the next 5-10 years I will have reached that goal. Or I could crash and burn. Whatever happens I’m sure it will be entertaining for you guys.

In my time in this industry there are many things that piss me off. Without doubt the biggest is bookmakers only letting losing punters place bets. A close second is tipsters who take advantage of mug punters who trust what they see on their marketing page. I have posted many times about how poor the bookmakers were, but rarely did I call out a Tipster service. There are a few reasons for this. I believe for the most part it is up to each punter to look into whatever service they are going to spend their money on. If they were going to make any other type of investment then they would do their due diligence, it boggles my mind that they do not take the same care and attention when selecting a tipster. At the end of the day the goal is the same with any investment, they want to take out more then they put in. I also understand that these Tipsters are people too, they are trying to make a profit to feed their families. No matter how unscrupulous some are, their motives are usually the same (provide for myself and my family). So to ruin someones livelihood must be taken seriously. I’m also a team of one, I don’t have the time to devote to writing these posts day after day. Yesterdays post took me 7 hours to research, fact check, write and edit, and then the rest of the day dealing with what comes after.

The Trail files and Horse Racing Genius misleading results were by no means the worst I had seen in the industry, but it was current and would affect a great many people. When you have direct access to many thousands of punters who trust what you say then it is off utmost importance to respect that trust and be honest in all your dealings. I stand by everything that was written yesterday. I have the proof, many others have the same information and if the feedback on twitter and in the comments section is anything to go by, the same sentiments were felt by many others. Whether intentional or not, the results posted in their marketing and the Horse Racing Genius website were at best misleading. Without direct access to their results spreadsheet we will never know what the real results would have been if a punter followed every official bet.

Shortly after the post went live, I was sent a message asking to call Matt (Trial files). I immediately jumped on the phone. Matt was nothing but professional on the call and agreed they had made some mistakes. I respect him for not defending what happened and taking the time to explain his side of the story. I will note that I made a few mistakes in releasing the article before I talked to these guys. I really should have notified them beforehand and given them a chance to respond before posting. I have never “exposed” a tipster before and appreciate that I made some mistakes in how I handled it. In future I will give tipsters a chance to explain their side of the story before posting.

The trial files response is posted below.

Download (DOCX, 40KB)

Kudos must go to the Trial file team for their response. The Wild Charger bet was one of many I could have posted about but am happy to leave it at that. They have admitted they made some errors and there is nothing more I can ask for.

we are 100% happy to acknowledge that we have made and error here

The Horse Racing Genius team were also extremely cooperative and professional in their dealings with me. I believe with this partnership now in place and all this coming to light, the odds recording going forward will be nothing but perfect. They also issued a response and it is available below.

Download (DOCX, 109KB)

First I will acknowledge my mistake in attributing those results in the reply to Trial Files, they are in fact a separate service from HRG. I have posted an edit to the prior article.

Once again, a very professional response from a clearly professional outfit.

These are the things I asked of them.

  1. Email all subscribers and offer a full explanation of what has happened (Results were not real)
  2. Offer them all a full refund
  3. Come out with a statement about the falsified results and link to that statement with a disclaimer on any page referencing the trial files service.
  4. Create a document showing specifically what each bet means to them (boxed Quinella, Trifecta, so on)
  5. Explain in detail their odds recording policy.

All of this has been done in under 24 hours. I have also asked for a few more smaller things done to the site and they have also been done. Now I can not comment on their service in regards to if it is a profitable one, but I can now say that it is run by people who are willing to admit when things are wrong and take steps to correct them.

They also offered me a free subscription to the service so I could keep an eye on the results. I declined the offer, but it shows they are happy to be transparent. I am sure if there are any future issues a reader will alert me to them.

Honestly, I expected them to just go quiet and hope this problem went away or to go on the attack. I was pleasantly surprised by the outcome in this situation.

For those affected

For the customers who signed up off the back of the inaccurate results, you have been offered a full refund. This is what I would do if I was in your situation. If I had signed up purely because I found the race previews insightful and helpful with my betting, then I would have no issue continuing on with the service. These are well written and the lessons learnt could be worth much more then any profit made. But if I had signed up based purely off the results, then I would be asking for the refund.

The thing is we have no idea what the true results are, so in essence we are starting from scratch here. To know if a tipster is anything more then lucky we need at least 250 verified picks when the average odds are $2. For Horse racing where the average odds you bet at are much higher, we would need at least 1,000 tips before we knew if the results were down purely to luck. I know all you want to do is bet on the weekend, and if you really don’t care about long term profit and just want a bit of fun and only to lose a little then continue your subscription. But there is no harm in waiting to see how they go. Keep on their mailing list, and after a year of the service being live you can then make a better informed decision. There are heaps (and i mean heaps) of services out there with results updated daily and way more then 1,000 bets. But even with these you need to be aware that the odds they record at might be fake. Do your research, see if you can find any current customers to talk to and send the owners an email with any queries. This industry is full of sharks and every punter is a little fish primed for eating. Be very careful in the services you decide to swim in.

I have uploaded what is called a P-value test (created by Joseph Buchdahl from Football-Data). This excel sheet is pretty simple to use. Just put in the number of bets you have placed with a service, the return on investment and the average odds. It will then tell you if the service has simple been lucky or if it is that rare unicorn we all search for. Again, if you are using results supplied by the tipster themselves, make sure you know the results are not faked.

Download (XLSX, 25KB)

That wraps up an interesting week on the blog. I am very pleased with the final result here and hope I taught some readers a few simple things to look for when evaluating a tipster. Remember that it just isn’t the subscription fee that you will lose if you follow the wrong tipster, you will lose even more by following the bets. Take your time and do research on every single service you think about joining.

 

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

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The Trial Files and Horse Racing Genius: Dodgy dealings? http://www.daily25.com/trial-files-horse-racing-genius-dodgy-dealings/ http://www.daily25.com/trial-files-horse-racing-genius-dodgy-dealings/#comments Tue, 14 Oct 2014 22:03:01 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2049 NOTE: An update on this article has been posted here Disclaimer: All views expressed below are mine and based on my own experiences. These are just my thoughts and I advise everyone to come to...

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NOTE: An update on this article has been posted here

Disclaimer: All views expressed below are mine and based on my own experiences. These are just my thoughts and I advise everyone to come to their own conclusions and research every tipster they come across.

One good thing about the internet is that it is now very hard to get away with being a dodgy tipster. If you claim something that isn’t true, it is there for all to see (unless you delete it). Paying members are quick to point out fake results and dodgy record keeping. But when you post your concerns on their blog, forum, or facebook walls, they own control of that content and can easily delete it. There are not many places to complain and make sure others hear about it. I am working on such a thing as we speak. A place that will keep track of every tipster service and people’s reviews of them (Good and bad). I have built up this site over 4 years and google understands that this is an authority site. Any articles I write about a certain tipster will leap onto the front page in days. It’s about time that any fraudulent tipping services do not last long.

Today we have a service that has a real chance to come clean, change direction and run a fair service. If not it will be the first service put on the dreaded DODGY TIPSTERS list. These guys get their own page on my site and a nice trophy sent out to them. The page will also helpfully come up on Google if anyone searches for them.

We are talking about two services here. The Trail Files and Horse Racing Genius (part of the Genius Group).

Note: A big thank you to Matt who brought this to my attention and did a lot of the research for me.

The Trial Files

I came across this service back in July. When I said I was moving into following Horse racing tipsters, a reader alerted me to the service. They say they have been running for 18 months now. I joined their free email list and did a bit of research but could not find much data. I emailed the owner and asked basic questions such as what the odds were recorded at, when to place bets, so on. He replied quickly and nothing seemed amiss. He did say.

We did not want to be just another “tipping” service as we aimed at educating and explaining our process rather than providing numbers

My assumption was they were looking to become media partners with sites like Betfair, or horse racing specific media organisations. I could also see they would eventually move into a paid tipping service. Now there is nothing at all wrong with this. This is the way most tipping services have to operate these days. It’s a simple formula. Give tips away for a year, build a following and track record and then start charging. If this is done correctly and honestly then it’s a great way to build up a tipping business.

I decided to give the service a try. After 4 days I was quick to drop the service. My reasons were simple, I had joined up for a paid service that advised bets in similar races and I was put off by the fact no odds were suggested on the bets. This meant at the end of the day, I had no idea what odds they recorded their winners at and they never put these results up, apart from a graph of the overall results. Lets take a look at that graph.

trialfilesresults

Here is a tip for anyone who is looking into tipsters and thinking about subscribing. Be very wary of a graph like this. Before reading on, have a look at it and see if you can pick out anything that might show it to be less then honest? Take your time, as it’s a valuable lesson and may save you a fortune in the future. You can also compare and contrast it with my profit graph on the top left column.

Ok, let’s see if you picked up what I saw. Firstly we see a massive winning streak very early on. In the first 100 bets the graph shows 100 units of profit. 150 units of profit are made over the next 1,300 bets. This is a classic sign of something being amiss. At the start, no one is watching. The have carte blanche to record whatever figures they want. As no one knows about the service, there is no one around to query the results. It instantly gives them a nice looking graph as well and people start following. I am not saying that they did not get off to this amazing start (that has not been replicated in the next 1,300 bets), but from the 100’s of other graphs like this I have seen, 99% have been found to be fake.

So now they have made all this great profit in a short time and people start talking about them. So we see a more reasonable graph, one that goes from 100 units profit to 260 units in the next 16 months. Off course we don’t know what odds they are recording at. They are without doubt recording at either highest fixed odds at time of release or if the price goes out, the highest Betfair price. So those parts that look like they are breaking even are in fact long losing streaks for followers. If it was possible to get the best odds on every bet we placed, we would all make a fortune from betting. Around the 500 bet mark we see another jump of about 70 units. Anyone betting knows we all go through troughs and peaks and this was a winning run they went on. Anyone just joining the service at this point then raves about it to everyone they know and their followers grow. We can see their current twitter followers now sit at 2,370. This helps them with social proof. If all these people are following this service then it must be legitimate. But people will come and go, follow the service, lose money and leave. But very rarely will they unfollow on Twitter or Facebook.

Now, If I was to simply look at the graph, I’d say that yes they may have embellished at the start, and yes they record at the best possible odds (lots do), but they probably would break about even under normal circumstances. Now this was the conclusion I came to many months ago. But it was a free service so I moved on. There are thousands of similar free services over the internet and people are free to follow whoever they want. Then last week I received the email announcing they were moving to a paid only service. They were now teaming up with Horse Racing Genius and becoming a paid service. I had largely forgotten about them and without one very clued up reader sending me an email, this article would never have been written.

The email they sent not only explained how well they had done over the past 18 months, it had that lovely graph above in it and then below they listed some of the horses they had advised and recorded as wins over the past. Let’s see which winners they posted.

trialfileswinners

Looks very impressive, doesn’t it. We have a $70 winner there, lots of $20 winners. These guys are the real deal right? umm wrong. This is the point where they did themselves no favors. Everyone received the same email as me and they can’t delete emails. The graph alone was defensible. Showing specific winners can be easily verified by looking at the daily pdf’s they sent out.

Once again a big thanks to Matt who went through all of these and helped verify the results. I will post snippets of his findings and then his summary.

26 October Ascot – Wild Charger $70.00

Mentioned 6 horses in the race worth considering including Wild Charger, and said it was a tough race, but no unit bets suggested

Suggested 8.75 units worth of bets on the day, but nothing on Wild Charger

Also was $52 best tote, never hit higher on bookies, don’t know where $70 came from, betfair?

So lets see what the PDF file on that day looks like.

triallies

The race in question is Ascot Race 8. We see no suggested bets, only to look at the preview. The preview does indeed mention the horse, but also mentions 5 other horses and no bets are suggested.

Matt has sent me every PDF file showing no official bets (I would say an official bet has to show a unit size like the ones above.).

Matts summary:

  • Only 3 of the 13 winners “claimed” were actually suggested as actual bets with units provided.
  • That leads me to be certain that the ‘profit graph’ they have there is clearly including the above winners in the profits even though they weren’t truly suggested bets, and allocating random unknown unit staking amounts to them
  • It’s interesting they provide a graph showing their profits but no actual breakdown of every bet to show how the results were calculated. Again I’m sure it’s because all of these winners that weren’t actually suggested bets are included and they don’t want anyone finding out
  • It also appears the win odds claimed are the absolute maximum possible best tote/bookie/betfair at any time of betting, there was no consistent method and obviously that an unfair way to record results that no-one can match

Summary

What more can I say about these guys, there is insurmountable proof that they have claimed winners that they never advised. Their results are clearly falsified and the worst part about it they have teamed up with an even bigger site and are now taking money from unsuspecting punters. Not only will these punters lose money following these tips, but they will be paying them for the privilege.

Horse Racing Genius (MVP Genius)

These guys are huge. The have their own offices in Melbourne and are (I’m told) raking in millions from subscribers. I read about them when they started and thought nothing of them again. Until now. They have over 800,000 followers on Facebook across all their products and over 27,000 for the Horse racing genius. What is surprising is their twitter followers. They sit at a whopping 21 for Horse racing genius.  Facebook is a much easier medium to control, as if anyone writes any negative reviews about you on your wall, you can just delete them. Twitter is a little harder. It seems weird to see a discrepancy like this. It could be simply because they decided Facebook was the place they wanted to be.

These guys are great marketers. They clearly come from the same start up space as me, do all the tests that need to be done to improve conversion rates and get new customers. If you’re starting your own tipping site then it would be a good exercise to visit their sites and see how they do it.

Now it could have easily been a case that they took what the trial files team gave them in regards to records at face value. They maybe assumed they were on the straight and narrow and there was no need to verify the results. I would assume if you were going to partner with someone then you would look at basic things like record keeping at least. We will never know for sure if they knew in advance or not. What we do know is their reply once Matt brought it to their attention.

They replied to Matt and said:

I’d like to let you know that we are taking your email very seriously, and we will be removing previous Trial Files results from our website as early as tomorrow pending an investigation in to your claims.

Now this is a good first step. I can no longer see the results that were claimed on their website. But they still seem happy to continue working with them. The damage has been done though. I’m not sure of the numbers, but would imagine a few hundred people have signed up off the back of those results. Purely for integrity, The Genius group need to email everyone who joined the service and let them know the records were falsified and not a true account of the service. They need to offer a full refund for the service and also place a disclaimer on their site in case any new visitors come based on the false information.

Sadly it seems they have not told the Trial files guys about this stance as I just received an email once again advertising their product and quoting the results that Horse Racing Genius has now taken off their site.

lies

 

EDIT: I made a mistake here and believed these results were being claimed to be by the Trial files, these were actually the HRG results that can be verified on their site. This was a wrong assumption by me.

I will assume that the Genius team simplly did not do the necessary due diligence when working on this partnership. So while their business practices might not be the best, there probably has been no wrong doing on their part.

Until today. Yes folks, it continues…..

The first tip

If what happened on their very first tip is anything to go by then both parties seem content to continue recording misleading results. The tip was a Box Quinella on three horses at 0.5 units. Now every single tipping service I follow (and I follow a few) recommend bets like this. A box Quinella is simple, You select the horses all together and bet whatever unit stake was advised. The bookmaker then splits these up into 3 separate bets (or more if you select more horses). 0.166* units is then bet on the following 3 selections to result in a total stake of 0.5 units.

  1. Horses selection 1 & Horse selection 2
  2. Horse selection 1 & Horse selection 3
  3. Horse selction 2 & Horse selection 3

When you explicitly say BOX, that is what is meant. Now let us see the advised bet and the results they recorded at.

horseracinggeniusfacebook

 

The amusing thing here is that a member had to explain to them how a boxed quinella really works and show that the 18 units they have recorded as a win should actually only be a 6 unit win. Instead of simply saying they messed up, after the fact they decided to say the way they record is to make 3 separate selections yourself. So do not BOX them. It’s clear they are changing the rules after the win and had never explained this to members beforehand. They need to regrade this bet at the real profit, and if they do decide to continue their very strange staking, then that has to be spelled out to members and explained on the site.

When I look into a tipster there are many things I look for before deciding to follow them. These guys fail almost every single test. There are hundreds of Horse racing services out there, why would you spend your money on one that has clearly lied?

I am happy to post a full reply from the Horse Racing Genius team to clear up any of the issues mentioned in this post.

So why did I spend the last 7 hours researching, writing and editing this post. Because I am getting pretty damn sick of people taking advantage of punters. While I also agree it is up to each person to do their own research before spending their money, it makes it much harder for them to do research and come up with the correct conclusion if there is only falsified information to look at. The investment industry is probably the closest thing we can compare the tipster industry to. In the tipping world these lies are simply seen as the norm. If anything went on like this (anymore) in the financial planning industry for example, people would end up in jail. In future articles I will show the tactics dodgy tipsters use to build up a customer base, social proofing, misleading results and so much more. Hopefully once you know what to look for you will be able to spot these guys a mile off.

The Horse racing Genius service can still save itself from joining my dodgy tipsters hall of fame. All it needs to do is

  1. Email all subscribers and offer a full explanation of what has happened (Results were not real)
  2. Offer them all a full refund
  3. Come out with a statement about the falsified results and link to that statement with a disclaimer on any page referencing the trial files service.
  4. Create a document showing specifically what each bet means to them (boxed Quinella, Trifecta, so on)
  5. Explain in detail their odds recording policy.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

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Oct 8th – Oct 14th -$13,233.69 http://www.daily25.com/oct-8th-oct-14th-20000/ http://www.daily25.com/oct-8th-oct-14th-20000/#comments Mon, 13 Oct 2014 23:08:05 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2030 oy did we have some fun on twitter over the weekend. I’m sure anyone who does follow me on twitter is eagerly awaiting today’s post. I had my first bona fide case of an internet...

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Boy did we have some fun on twitter over the weekend. I’m sure anyone who does follow me on twitter is eagerly awaiting today’s post. I had my first bona fide case of an internet troll this week. I was rather disappointed in my behavior to be honest, as normally I would have just laughed and not even replied, but I had to sit in front of my computer all day placing bets on the horses and I was a little bored. So I thought I would have some fun. But this guy clearly had no life and was relentless and then when threats get involved, I know to shut that down pretty quickly these days. He was blocked and reported. The amusing thing is even today he is still going and I get snippets of the conversation from others I still follow defending me.

For the people who missed it, I’ll give a run down of what happened. Some guy who runs his own service on Twitter starting saying I was a fraud and everything I write is made up. He was going on about how he has had all his accounts closed down and it’s impossible for me to still be betting if I was really betting as big as I said. Apparently without showing betslips of every single bet on twitter, I was therefore lying and a fraud. This amused me immensely. To think anyone would question me writing and keeping track of fake bets over the past 4 and a half years to big note myself really tickled my ribs. It was also strange as there were actual random posts in my twitter image feed of exact bets I had mentioned on the blog. What’s even more amusing is that I would spent over $30,000 in subscription fees since I started so I could write this blog that has no advertising on it.

I directed this slow witted fella to my blog, in the hopes he would read some content and then apologise. Nope. He said he would pay me if I showed him betslips. Not wanting to take money off someone who would clearly need it, I instead directed him to give $200 to charity and I would happily give him whatever he wanted. He was non stop about me having to post a betslip before he would pay. After a few hours I grew bored and did produce the betslip. I then asked him to donate to charity. But that wasn’t enough for this guy, I needed to post an image of every single bet I had placed ever.. hahaha. This guy clearly had no idea about maths, so I did some for him. Showing that it would take me 125 hours to take screenshots and post just the last 12 months worth of bets.

This poor chap keeps getting his accounts closed down and has no idea why, he even apparently has an ex bookie employee working with him and he too gets banned. He just can’t fathom that accounts can stay open. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m the first to call out bookies who limit me and it’s damn hard work to place my AFL bets each season. I have every bookie open x 2 and there are some I just don’t even bother with. I have got it down to a fine art as I am sure many other Sportpunter AFL subscribers have also done. I factor in losing about 1 or 2 accounts a season. Some bookies will just close your account, others will set a certain limit and if you get off to a bad start and combine that with betting on another sport then some bookies will happily take your bets all season. I would say this year was actually easier then last year to get matched. I was lucky enough to find a few bookies with higher limits who seemed happy to take some bets. I won’t give away my secrets as it is a dog eat dog world for Sportpunter AFL clients.

Now this slimy weasel still has no idea how he can keep getting limited from bookies. I decided to have a look at his service and twitter feed. I could not believe how dumb this guy was. I don’t even mean dumb like your average dumb, I mean spectacularly dumb. Just the other week I posted an article explaining how much effort bookies put into tracking accounts. There is a whole bit about how bookies use social media to track customers. But this dim witted individual continues to post betslips from the new accounts he has created, pretty much saying “Hello sportbook, it’s your number 1 dumbarse customer here just letting you know I have another account open, all you need to do is look at the bet receipt number and ban me again “. It also looks like he uses the exact same phone for all accounts and the same computer. Now, we can probably forgive him for this, he clearly has some sort of slow witted type syndrome. But then I had a look at his so called service. What is the first bet I saw advised for members:

auspicksisascam

He actually advised his members to bet on a clearly palpable line. This is when a bookmaker has made a clear error in the odds quoted and in their terms and conditions these bets will be cancelled. This absolute idiot bet on a palpable line, which is on par with calling up Ladbrokes and saying “YO HOMY, IT ME, GOT ME NEW ACCOUNT YO, I FOOL YOU TWICE, YOU AINT FOOL ME“, I’ve actually had to convert that as best I could, as his actual speaking and grammar are much worse then that. What’s worse is that anyone who follows him and tried to place this bet has now had their accounts marked for closure too. Even worse, he would have added this bet as a 26 unit win to his overall record, but luckily there were some members who called him out on it. Who knows how many of these fake lines are hidden away in his records. I don’t even think Australia’s number 1 fraudster tipping service betjam.com.au would be so dodgy to do that.

Why I don’t post betslips and ego type stuff.

Now onto why I don’t post betslips or other things morons like this guy think winning gamblers need to do. I think Jonno from Sportpunter put it best. I was actually surprised at how well said his tweet was.

He sums up my stance in less then 140 characters. I see no point in big mouthing myself by showing the fancy car, the house on the beach and so on. How will that help my readers get better with their betting? This blog was started just for me to document my journey, I never asked anyone to come here and read what I write, but I also am very happy that many do and I get to talk with many of them and both teach and learn at the same time.

Idiots like this twitter troll actually believe the adverting the bookies shove down our throats. The ones where you place a bet and win and shout the bar, order some strippers to your hotel room and drink dom perignon off their breasts. This is the image bookies want to propagate as losing bettors flock to this dream. Do you want to know what it’s really like being a successful punter? IT’S SOOOOOO BORING and so much less glamorous then you think. All it is, is me sat in front of a computer placing bets, that’s it. A couple of spreadsheets open, some odds comparison sites open and a warm cup of green tea next to me. Now imagine how those ads would go over with the masses.

I admit I have posted some ego type stuff (my holidays, flying first class and so on), but that was more to tell my readers of my love of travel and how I used credit cards to get frequent flyer points. But for me it isn’t about material stuff, yes I have the fancy sports car (which I’m selling soon as a baby seat is illegal in it), I’ve lived in some amazing places, I’ve been privileged to experience many things and meet many people. My life has been helped along by the profit I have made. But I’m also a minimalist and really don’t understand this “put everything on credit” culture we live in. As I’ve grown up, I realised that material things are meaningless, the truly priceless stuff are our friends and family and time itself. Each of us value things differently. This poor lost soul hasn’t the capacity to see past the flashy lights.

So that’s one reason. My boasting doesn’t help you and only goes to help propagate a myth about gambling. It would also make me look like a massive dick.

The main reason I don’t post betslips was mentioned above. Most of my bets now have to be placed with bowler accounts and if I posted even 1 image from an account that wasn’t mine, the bookies would have that account shutdown before I had time to finish a fart. If you notice any bet slips I do post, they are always from bookies known for not closing accounts (Betfair, Pinnacle, so on).

At least this little experience gave me some good blogging material and taught me a valuable lesson. Do not get involved with internet trolls. My total posts on twitter doubled in just 1 day because of this fool. The only potentially good thing was that about 50 people who followed him then followed me, I hope a few of them are reading this and then also read over the site. I would advise them to be very careful following this muppets service, as he clearly has no idea what he is doing. Not only does my service produce spectacular results, it also teaches you everything you need to know to keep your accounts open and make a long term profit betting.

To sum it up in a few words: Jealousy is a curse.

Onto this weeks results

Normal programming has now resumed and I will go over this weeks results. Another terrible week and one exacerbated by yet again missing a massive golf win. I don’t know how I can continue to do it, I would say this year I have missed less then 10 bets, and two have resulted in me missing $20,000 profit. One I could do nothing about as I never received an email. But this one was nothing but my fault.

As you know I follow Frazzled tips over at the BetSWOT website. In the first week of following the service he picked a winner. Since then he has been on a quiet run. Until this week where he picked Sang Moon Bae at 150/1. Now let me explain the lengths I go to to make sure I can get these bets on. I follow betswot on twitter and have notifications set to yes, so every time they tweet, my phone lights up like a christmas tree, I also follow their RSS feed which updates me as soon as an article is up. I saw the tweet for the European tour and placed those bets. The vast majority of the time odds quoted can be matched and the longer odds bets can easily be beaten on Betfair. Now we had just bought little Ollie home and sadly my attention was elsewhere when the tweet went up. Lets just say my mind was not really interested in betting and more keen on keeping this little creature alive. By the time I saw the article, the first round was winding up and Bae was in 4th. I skyped my mate and said, “I bet you this guy wins”. We know the rest. I would have won at least $11,000 and probably more and that would have helped massively in a week like this. It would have moved my golf betting for the year into profit. All I can do is move on, I would happily pay another $11,000 for Ollie and am just happy he is home and healthy. What I can say is that Frazzled has proved himself to be one of the best free golf tipsters on the net. I believe there was a paid for service, but could not find it on the site. I would happily pay for his picks.

Onto the other bets this week and NHL totals started with a small $250 win. The MLB season is winding up and the SP totals lost $830. NFL Totals added a nice $3000 profit. This week also saw the start of the NBL season, and after last years amazing results, I decided to up my banks. Maybe that was not a good idea. I lost a massive $11,000 on Round 1. This was a mirror image of last years start, so I’ll be ecstatic if it follows that pattern.

ClubGOWI broke even, PCG lost $2,250 and the Golf lost $1,000 (I’m still cut up about this).

Only a few Soccer tipsters had bets as it was Internationals week. TFA made $2,100. Winabobatoo service lost $1,100 and the Combo Football Investor bets lost $2,130. You will also notice a new bet type in the results named “odds pushed out”. With numerous service advising the same bet on lower league games, the price on the opposing team moves out massively. I feel the bookies would rarely get the starting odds 20% wrong, so happily back the opposite side when the odds are 20% better then the starting price. It’s all about value in this game.

So that’s it for a very interesting week for me. My total loss for year 5 is now at that really uncomfortable level. I’ve never really been down much more then this in any given season, so not sure how I will react if it keeps heading towards -$100k. Just gotto hope my trust in these services is rewarded. I’ll also make sure to add even more levels of reminders so I never ever miss another Golf bet every again.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Loss for the week was $4,648.67

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $1,762,952.00
Profit/Loss: -$48,730.67
POT: -2.76%
Bets Placed: 2666
Won: 991
Lost: 1272
Half Payout: 25
Refunded: 378
Winning %: 43.8%
Total profit per day: $298,794.17 / 1567 = $190.67
Total Turnover: $16,105,695.37
Total ROI: 1.86%

NBL Totals $3,617.00 $(3,617.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -3617

NBL Line $7,463.00 $(7,463.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -7463

SP MLB $252,327.00 $9,385.43 3.7%
week profit/loss: -832.50

NFL Totals $45,890.00 $4,507.83
week profit/loss: 3040.61

NHL Totals $7,740.00 $248.20 3.2%
week profit/loss: 248.20

ClubGowi $228,624.00 $4,925.96 2.2%
week profit/loss: 105

GOWI $4,182.00 $269.00 6.4%
week profit/loss: 0

Diamond Edge $149,000.00 $1,967.50 1.3%
week profit/loss: 0

PCG $121,867.00 $(6,486.21) -5.3%
week profit/loss: -2250

Jason Kelly Golf $6,716.00 $(5,376.00) -80.0%
week profit/loss: -725

Betswot $7,113.00 $(5,358.00) -75.3%
week profit/loss: -275

FB Elite $10,250.00 $1,467.50 14.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Football Value $11,000.00 $(1,325.00) -12.0%
week profit/loss: 0

TFA 21 $48,687.00 $(4,600.00) -9.4%
week profit/loss: 450

TFA 41 $54,500.00 $(3,918.50) -7.2%
week profit/loss: 310

6-21-31 $28,687.00 $(649.50) -2.3%
week profit/loss: 950

D1-D6 $14,500.00 $(915.00) -6.3%
week profit/loss: 420

E1-E6 $1,500.00 $2,330.00 155.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Mike Lindley $13,500.00 $(1,945.00) -14.4%
week profit/loss: -1500

WINABOBATOO $58,500.00 $(9,008.00) -15.4%
week profit/loss: 430

FBI combo $24,500.00 $7,702.00 31.4%
week profit/loss:-2130

Odds pushed out $4,000.00 $10.00 0.3%
week profit/loss: 10

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Horse Racing Results September 2014 -$18,156.38 http://www.daily25.com/horse-racing-results-september-2014-6063-50/ http://www.daily25.com/horse-racing-results-september-2014-6063-50/#comments Wed, 08 Oct 2014 04:16:11 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2021 ‘t looks like September sucks for Sports and Horses. $256,776.00 was bet for a $18,156.38 loss which is a negative ROI of 7.07%. Even with these pretty bad results, you see the spruiking of the...

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I‘t looks like September sucks for Sports and Horses. $256,776.00 was bet for a $18,156.38 loss which is a negative ROI of 7.07%. Even with these pretty bad results, you see the spruiking of the services based on 1 winner or a good Saturday. It really is so much worse then the sports tipsters I follow and I would assume people leave in droves from these services as the strike rates are so low and long losing runs are expected. Sadly most punters have no idea and if they join at a poor time, they would leave pretty quickly with nothing but bad things to say about the service. I guess this constant need for new customers results in the idiotic advertising of single wins or good days. It’s counterintuitve as these tipsters should really want members to understand that profits will only ever be made long term and yet they then advertise exactly the opposite. The people who run these services are not marketers and that is clearly evident, if only they would stop following the herd and educate members, then there is a chance they would stay around longer, have a chance to make members a profit and therefor making the service profitable.

In saying that, there are one or two services that do indeed try and educate. Once I have had time to look at them all and see the results, I will happily tell you guys which ones they are. OK, rant over.

We have now had a month of the new NSW racing rules in place, and we can clearly see the bookmakers that will be fighting the rules. The William Hill group (tomwaterhouse, Centrebet and Sportingbet) have all decided to offer lower odds to unwanted customers, it looks like this will be going to court. Ladbrokes is asking for so much documentation it’s almost kafkaesque, Unibet continues to just leave accounts closed.  Luxbet is saying that any account they don’t want to deal with is a bowler account. I have not heard from Racing NSW since I filled my complaint early in September. It seems these bookmakers all got together in a dark room and each drew a piece of paper out of a bowler hat. On each was a different strategy to take to get around these rules. They all agreed to fight it from different angles and see which one worked. I’m hoping Racing NSW doesn’t stand for this, and not only takes them all to court, but imposes fines based on the turnover they would have gotten in the intervening months.

It sucks that there is so much to hate about this industry. Watching and betting on sports and racing can be so fun, but when it’s a constant battle to just get a bet on, it becomes a real chore.

Stats
Total bet amount: $905,166.50
Profit/Loss: -$13,056.30
POT: -1.44%

Bets
Bets Placed: 2403
Won: 436
Lost: 1853
Refunded: 114
Winning %: 19.04%

Tipster
Wagers
Net Profit
Return
Wins
Bets
Win %
Monthly P/L
Smartform$111,959.00$7,420.006.6%3512927.1%$0
FL $84,967.00 $(8,583.50)-10.1%4419522.6%-$5,859.00
Dominic Bernie$9,226.00$450.004.9%104920.4%$0
Unofficial SF$8,674.00$(3,854.00)-44.4%3466.5%$0
Trialfiles$4,160.00$(1,333.00)-32.0%53215.6%$0
CTS$127,615.00$12,813.5010.0%9038523.4%$50.62
BDM$85,245.00$(4,864.75)-5.7%3324713.4%-$8,758.50
RB$270,236.00$(14,597.55)-5.4%9966314.9%-$4,916.00
RB Unofficial$61,900.50$15,754.0025.5%5225120.7%$2,153.50
FTAU$95,880.00$(5,180.00)-5.4%5323422.6%$9,640.00
ESM$28,630.00$(1,561.00)-5.5%83721.6%-$5,100.00
EP3$4,000.00$(1,180.00)-29.5%41921.1%-$620.00
EMM$10,420.00$(8,340.00)-80.0%3476.4%-$4,620

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Sep 24th – Oct 7th +$4,648.67 http://www.daily25.com/sep-24th-oct-7th-4648-67/ http://www.daily25.com/sep-24th-oct-7th-4648-67/#comments Tue, 07 Oct 2014 03:28:00 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2012 irstly the big news. I’m now a dad. We had little Oliver 6 days ago and he is a very healthy and loud boy. If the first week is anything to go by, I’m going...

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Firstly the big news. I’m now a dad. We had little Oliver 6 days ago and he is a very healthy and loud boy. If the first week is anything to go by, I’m going to have to work even harder on my time management skills. The fact I’ve already had to stop 3 times while just putting in the past two weeks numbers does not bode well. Luckily for me, all the late nights placing bets has helped with his schedule. I’m sure all the skills gambling has taught me will help transfer across to parenting. But it’s all worth it for that half second where he smiles right before doing a massive shart.

Once again we have a fortnightly update and I have noticed that these ones really help smooth out the variance. If I was to have posted last week and then this week, I would have been moaning about going over $50,000 lost and then this week I would have been proclaiming that the birth of my newborn has helped shine down luck on all my bets. Instead it was just a steady two weeks when looking at the longer time frame. Same with all my betting, it’s really about the angle you look at it, perspective really changes everything. I can look at it as currently being $36,000 down, or see that I am $312,000 up or see that since January I am up over $100,000. It’s all arbitrary really. As we say in the startup community “Up and to the Right”, and my long-term graph can answer that with an emphatic yes.

I’ll also quickly mention (hard sell) my own service. We started 3 months ago and instructed members to start with a $2,000 bank. We sit just shy of $4,000 profit now. That’s a 200% return in just 3 months. If you’re an aussie then just sign up. There’s nothing more to say about it. Right now the aussie bookies are throwing money at people, Dailyprofit.com.au shows you how to take advantage of that. Add in that we have the world’s best tipster on board and it just rounds out the service magnificently. For all you non aussies (you poor things), The SP part of the service will be opening up to you very soon.

Ok, that sponsored message should help keep little Ollie in nappies for a few months, onto the fortnights profit and losses.

We ended both the AFL and NRL seasons and I’ll do a full write up of both in the coming weeks. A great return for both. I was really impressed by the new player based NRL model this season. AFL did not have it’s usual standout season, but I believe I still made well over $50k from it. AFL ended with a Hawthorn win (which I only half bet as I am a Swans fan). $2,500 helped me feel a little better about the result. I also had to send Jonno of Sportpunter $50 as we had a gentlemen’s bet. I hope the beer he bought with it tastes like shit. NRL ended the fortnight break even.

The MLB totals ended the regular season poorly, losing $4,900 and the NFL totals made a tiny $300. NHL starts this week and I’ll be following the totals once again this season.

ClubGOWI broke even for the few bets I could get on. My return has been 2.2% ROI but if I had managed (not possible) to get on all his bets at the suggested odds, I would be $7k better off, or to put it into perspective, 2.5 times my real profit. He has not had the best run lately and could easily drop back into negative again. We do have a $6,000 win coming next month on the Golf, but if today’s email from Keith is anything to go by, he is also worried about this current trend. I’m almost at a full 12 months and will do a full review at the beginning of December.

Diamond Edge made $500, PCG lost $350. With the MLB season coming to an end, a review of the Diamond Edge service is also in order. It will be interesting to compare my results to the official ones. In the Golf, more heartbreak as I had Ramsay for a $6,000 win and he led by 2 strokes with 3 holes to play. You can guess the rest. Jason Kelly lost $800 and Betswot lost $700.

Onto Soccer and we will start with the standout. Football Investor made a massive $7,100 this fortnight. Football Value made a comeback with $2,600 and Football Elite added $600. TFA lost $600, but the Euro picks did well. I’ve also decided not to follow any Scottish bets from any tipster, and when anyone clashes with Football Investor, I side with FBI. This saved me a heap on the weekend as TFA had a few opposing bets. You will have to take all this into consideration when looking at my TFA figures. Winabobatoo lost a further $2,100 and as I mentioned before, I’m pretty unhappy with the service. If I knew how bad the odds recording was then I would never have joined. I am tempted to throw it in, but will see out the season and give it some time and see if things improve. At best I would assume a 2-4% ROI.

So that’s it for a very exciting fortnight for me. Lot’s of posts to do and as I’ll be having many late nights, I should get through them pretty quickly. I’ll also put out the monthly Horse racing results this week to. Once again, if you’re an Australian, then go sign up for my service, a heap of profit to be made over the spring carnival. Hopefully I’m back on my regular weekly schedule now.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Profit for the week was $4,648.67

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $1,678,211.00
Profit/Loss: -$35,496.98
POT: -2.12%
Bets Placed: 2538
Won: 959
Lost: 1202
Half Payout: 25
Refunded: 352
Winning %: 44.4%
Total profit per day: $312,027.86 / 1560 = $200.01
Total Turnover: $16,020,954.37
Total ROI: 1.95%

AFL H2H – SP $46,456.00 $11,281.42 24.3%
week profit/loss: 0

AFL Line – SP $244,906.00 $(26,275.77) -10.7%
week profit/loss: 2586

SP MLB $250,540.00 $10,217.93 4.1%
week profit/loss: -4924.45

NFL Totals $34,156.00 $1,467.22 4.3%
week profit/loss: 322.72

NRL SP $33,686.00 $4,615.25 13.7%
week profit/loss: -10.10

ClubGowi $214,774.00 $4,820.96 2.2%
week profit/loss: 730.50

GOWI $3,832.00 $269.00 7.0%
week profit/loss: -400

Diamond Edge $149,000.00 $1,967.50 1.3%
week profit/loss: 511

PCG $119,367.00 $(4,236.21) -3.5%
week profit/loss: -355

Jason Kelly Golf $5,791.00 $(4,651.00) -80.3%
week profit/loss: -810

Betswot $6,838.00 $(5,083.00) -74.3%
week profit/loss: -700

FB Elite $10,250.00 $1,467.50 14.3%
week profit/loss: 612.50

Football Value $11,000.00 $(1,325.00) -12.0%
week profit/loss: 2600

TFA 21 $43,687.00 $(5,050.00) -11.6%
week profit/loss: -2300

TFA 41 $49,500.00 $(4,228.50) -8.5%
week profit/loss: -408.50

6-21-31 $24,687.00 $(1,599.50) -6.5%
week profit/loss: 587.50

D1-D6 $11,500.00 $(1,335.00) -11.6%
week profit/loss: -800

E1-E6 $1,500.00 $2,330.00 155.3%
week profit/loss: 2330

Mike Lindley $10,000.00 $(445.00) -4.5%
week profit/loss: 100

WINABOBATOO $53,000.00 $(9,438.00) -17.8%
week profit/loss: -2167.50

FBI combo $19,500.00 $9,832.00 50.4%
week profit/loss: 7142

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How bookmakers track your every move & how to get around it (from an industry insider). http://www.daily25.com/bookmakers-track-every-move-industry-insider/ http://www.daily25.com/bookmakers-track-every-move-industry-insider/#comments Tue, 23 Sep 2014 23:58:39 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2000 The following article is written by a guest contributor. He works at one of Australia’s biggest bookmakers but does love his job so wishes to remain anonymous. Being one of many sportsbook insiders I converse...

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The following article is written by a guest contributor. He works at one of Australia’s biggest bookmakers but does love his job so wishes to remain anonymous. Being one of many sportsbook insiders I converse with on a regular basis, I shall cleverly name him Spinsider. I email with a number of people who work at sportsbooks, they have all stumbled across this site and contacted me. You can imagine that we have a lot in common and a lot to talk about. I have found that all the workers of these big corporations are great guys. I always feel a tinge of guilt when calling out sportsbooks, as I personally know workers there, but it is not the workers who are the issue, it is the way the owners have created a culture in each company much like those seen in the wolf of wall-street. The goal of all employees is to make as much profit for the company as possible and this sometimes leads quite nice people into doing reprehensible things in the name of profit.

This article will give a small glimpse into the lengths that bookmakers go to to profile every single customer and then weed out any that may one day make a profit. This is a major issue in our little sports-betting world, and an important story to get out there to the general public. I’ll hand it over to the Daily25 Spinsider and I’ll be back at the end of the post to add some of my own opinions.


From inside a corporate bookmaker

Sometime back, Steve contacted me privately to write a piece for his ever growing and popular blog daily25.com. I apologise to Steve for the lateness of this as I’ve had a few personal items get in the way in addition to a little overseas trip I had to attend to, but here it is. I don’t usually do this kind of stuff (writing articles) but I can genuinely see that Steve means well in what he is trying to do, is an advocate for fairness, and I know from my brief discussions with him he is a genuinely good guy. That means a lot to me. Who knows I might take up my own blog if I enjoy writing material myself. I guess Steve will tell me if this is a hit.

To introduce myself, I’ve worked in the gambling industry for roughly 4 years here in Australia and am doing so currently for a major corporate. I have, and currently do a fair bit of sports punting myself so I can relate to both worlds very clearly. Sometimes I read tweets and blogs and articles on major newspapers like The Age for instance and get annoyed because only one side of the story is presented. I understand the perspective of the bookie – hey I’ll admit I wouldn’t have a job if losing punters (you guys) didn’t pay my wage, and I understand the frustrations of not being able to get a bet on and getting restricted and getting my account closed. On the flip side, if bookies don’t make profits, you the punter have less options to bet with and hence less promotions and offers. It’s a vicious circle.

This brief article looks at how accounts get flagged and hence end up as a dreaded restricted accounts. The last thing any punter wants is to go enter in a stake and be told their business isn’t wanted. Why don’t they want my money? In short: yes, consistently winning punters are shown the door. But let’s understand why that’s the case before I go through typically how it happens.  A corporate bookmakers overall aim is to make profits, because that’s what the owners and shareholders are looking for, nothing else. You don’t make growing profits, you lose your job. Individuals within the organisation get greedy and in-order to meet their individual targets look for ways to make more and more of a margin, an easy was to assist with this is to remove business (punters) who look like they will cut into their margins.  Corporate bookmakers are complex beasts. Many hundred employees, across trading, marketing, IT, finance and so on. They’re all human, they all need to get paid, and so do the shareholders. I’ll be honest with you, there’s a culture of always trying to be unfair with the customer, and there doesn’t have to be.  In other words, trying to deceive the customer, the very guys who pay our wages. As a punter myself it annoys me, because I know other bookmakers are doing it to me. The difference is, I understand it.

Anyway, back to the point of this article – how accounts get flagged. The couple bookmakers I’ve worked with have complex risk teams who monitor all customer betting activity, betting trends and so on. When I say ‘all’ betting activity I mean ‘all’ betting activity. Below I will go through a few techniques:

  • IP Addresses are tracked at both an account level as well as a bet level. Even though you try and create a new account under your mums name, if there’s ever a bet or account that has the same IP Address these are flagged immediately. Things like MAC addresses and the like are captured but to my knowledge are not used for filtering purposes. Also if you and “your mum” start betting on similar sports at similar times, your profiles will match.
  • Unique accounts – just like any business there are rules in place to ensure that same people do not have multiple accounts. Things like date of birth, suburb, address, device id of your android or apple device are compiled, and compared against one another on an ongoing basis. When new accounts are created they are compared against to the existing database instantly are these accounts are grouped and monitored.
  • Cookies. No I am not talking about the bad boys your grandmother gives you. Every time you appear at the bookmakers website either logged in or not they know you are there. In Australia these are automatically placed on your browser and there’s not much you can do about it, unless you clear your browser cookies each time. There are no laws like the UK where you have to opt into such behaviour. Everything from time the site was visited, to clicks on a page, to hover over links, to session length is stored and then you are profiled. There’s no hiding. From here you are placed in “user profile buckets” where suitable marketing or promotions or offers are chosen to be applied to your account to keep you engaged.
  • Social media – the two bookmakers that I’ve worked at have complex CRM (Customer Relationship Manager) systems that are constantly evolving. Risk and Customer Service teams are constantly trolling Twitter, Blogs, Facebook, employees from other bookmakers as well, tipping service subscriptions and people with industry knowledge and these are all noted on the customer’s account. Reports are generated daily basis on all betting activity (bets placed, profit/loss and so on) and these people are closely monitored. People who tweet together are put into “pools” and are known as “syndicates”, official or not. This is why some accounts get banned the very few minutes after they create an account. It’s because they get flagged via mechanisms above before they even create an account. I’ve seen accounts pre-created for people and restricted just in case they turn up some day. My favourite is when people post pictures of their accounts/betting slips on Twitter, it makes the job so easy to flag accounts.
  • Staking – when you create an account everyone has the same staking level. Once you start “winning” on a daily, weekly, monthly basis (everything is reported) your staking level starts to change or get reduced. If you are really crap at a particular sport the amount you can stake increases. This can be achieved per bet type or sport, or competition or split between racing and sport. This is why you see sometimes you can bet big stakes on cricket (it’s because you constantly lose here) but small stakes on racing (because you constantly win here). Why ban you completely? Bookmakers might as well restrict or ban you when you’re winning and let you lose where you’re losing. Most of this is manually performed at the moment, however the intelligence to make the decision is all automated.
  • Trends betting – If you and a few of your mates are betting on the same type of selections at the same time of the day, it will be noted. One of the two bookies I’ve been involved with have an engine that compares bets (exact bets) between different customers and looks for trends. This runs 24/7. If a whole bunch of people bet at the same time on the same selection, it’s obvious they are from the same tipping service. Do you think that bookmakers aren’t subscribing to these services themselves? You’re a bit naïve if you think they aren’t.
  • Tipping – ah, another favourite. Ever created a personal tipping competition between your mates? Well it is your lucky day you have all been grouped together, similar to the staking item above, if one punter within the tipping group is really good at Sport X, this may reduce the amount that can be bet by any members of the group.
  • Betting Back – don’t be fooled into thinking that every “good punter” is restricted or banned completely. Why would any bookmaker do that? Most of the really good guys have their bet taken, then the bookmaker will place the same bet at a better price back into Betfair (or at least hedge it for a loss), or place the same bet onshore or offshore at private bookies. I’ve heard things like bookmakers have systems to check arbers on particular Betfair markets but I’ve never witnessed or are aware of this system myself.

Bookmakers have got really sophisticated in the past few years because they know the Australian market is growing and will continue to grow over at least the next 5 years. They all want a piece of the massive market share pie. Don’t be put off by the promotions and special odds, they’re all for show. When Tom Waterhouse tells you to “take him on” that’s because he knows with a high degree of certainty that whatever selection he’s offering the enhanced odds on will lose. These bookmakers have models and systems in place that will provide them the result of a race.  The guy sitting behind his computer at home has no chance against the 50 traders who work around the clock who do this stuff day in day out with complex modelling. You’ll never win. Bookmakers only exist if they take your money. On the other hand, they are not a charity, they’re a business.

The monitoring activities briefly listed above are just the tip of the iceberg. I’m sure in next to no time personalisation software will be able to map out every customer touchpoint or interaction that they have at any point so they can predict your next move before you even do it. My advice is – Big Brother is always watching. Do you want to keep out of the bookies eyes? Don’t make multiple accounts, clear your cookies, keep off social media or do it anonymously, throw the bookmaker off every so often with a really stupid bet. Everything gets reported. Everything is automatic. Everything gets monitored. I could ramble on all day really about a plethora of topics however I’ll leave it there. Hope to touch base again in the future.


Firstly a big thank you to our industry insider. While this is not everything that is done, it is a very handy list to have. Now that you know some of the rules of the game, you can now take measures to game the system. Luckily for me I have a background in IT and have been in the punting arena for over 15 years (10 doing casinos, 5 with sports). Creating new clean accounts is a science and sadly a necessity in today’s world of limited accounts. If you really want to get a bet on you have to work pretty hard at staying under the radar. Things like IP and MAC address can be easily spoofed. Cookies can be turned off by using incognito mode in your browser. Social media is another issue, as if you or even a friend ever likes or follows a bookmaker, then the amount of information available is immense. My longest lasting accounts all have no social media presence.

I have started teaching my students at the dailyprofit service a few tricks of the trade. Over the coming months they will know everything I do and their accounts will last much longer then the usual guys. Any system that is mostly automated can be gamed and while its sad that it’s a game we even have to play, there is great pleasure in taking money from bookmakers. As a group the Dailyprofit members have already taken over more than $130,000 from the bookies in under 3 months. We are well on track to take $1 million from them by this time next year.

Now that you know how dirty the bookmakers play, it’s time to fight back with our own dirty tactics. There is not much use in whinging about how bad the bookies are (although it is a hell of a lot of fun). But once we hit them where it hurts (their profits), they will have little choice but to change the way they do business.

I hope this article enlightened you a little about the amount of effort bookmakers go into to make sure no winners ever get a chance. They spend millions a year on staff and tech to make sure they only have losing accounts. So much for the Australia ethos of a fair go. As most of these bookies are British they don’t understand that concept and are slowly realising that it won’t stand here.

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Sep 17th – Sep 23rd -$21,994.84 http://www.daily25.com/sep-17th-sep-23rd-21994-84/ http://www.daily25.com/sep-17th-sep-23rd-21994-84/#comments Tue, 23 Sep 2014 00:40:55 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1997 hat a killer 7 days. Was happy to wake up this morning to an Ipswich win which returned $6,000, but there was nothing else to smile about this week. It was a classic September week...

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What a killer 7 days. Was happy to wake up this morning to an Ipswich win which returned $6,000, but there was nothing else to smile about this week. It was a classic September week with Soccer piling on the losses. Add to that a big loss from Sportpunter and year 5 once again looks bleak. After 5 years of the exact same scenario you would think I would learn to just stop betting until the last few months of the year. But nope, I continue on expecting variance to catch up and it never does. In the new year I will take a very detailed look at the July-Dec period and see what is really going on and figure out ways to stop it from happening for a 6th straight year.

Tomorrow I have a guest article from my spy deep inside one of Australia’s big corporate bookies. The SBC ran an article in this months magazine that really reflects poorly on the team there. Their lead article was about how to hide from the bookies and create second accounts. The article simply said that all you need to do is hide your IP address by using a VPN. I highlighted how wrong this was and Pete said he would talk to the articles writer, but nothing has been said since. Do not follow the advice you read in that article. It will lead to your shiny new account being closed down quicker then ever. SBC tries to help the average punter, but articles like this do much more harm then good. In tomorrows article my spy lays down the exact things that these bookmakers look at and the amount of effort that goes into profiling each and every customer. Once you know what they look for, you will be better prepared. Once we know the rules of the game, we are much better equipped to game the system.

Another article which people have dogged me to write for the past year will also be up in the next few weeks. I will expose Australia’s biggest scam tipster service. You can check out the site yourself at betjam.com.au and see if you can see why it is a scam website. This will be a good exercise for those readers who want to figure out what makes up an honest tipster and a complete scammer. I will go into great detail in this article and I’m sure you will learn a lot.

Lets move onto this week losses. Starting with Sportpunter. Things could have been so different. The biggest bet of the year was on Hawthorn to win by more then 19.5 points. With 7 minute remaining in the game, things were looking great as they held a 30 point lead. They were in attack and the ball was bouncing to one of their players well inside the 50. He had space and time and all he needed to do was pick up the ball, turn around, read a book and then slot home a goal. Instead he completely misses the ball and ruins what would have been the nail in the coffin. Instead Port Adelaide get the ball, go down the other end and score and this starts their revival. Hawthorn held on for a 3 point win and I can’t wait to see the Swans smash them in the final. In the end thanks to a resounding Sydney win, the model only lost $3,500 this week. But it could have easily been a massive profit. The baseball totals continue on their merry way, another $1,800 profit this week. Sadly NFL totals had an absolute shocker and lost $5,400. NRL both picked the underdogs and they both lost by 1 point for a $400 loss.

ClubGowi’s horror run continues. $2,900 lost this week. Diamond Edge lost $1,300 and PCG made $900. Tom who runs Pro Computer Gambler is also going to take some time and answer any questions I have for him to post on the blog. If you want anything answered by Tom about the service, how he records odds, any issues you see or just general questions about how his model works then let me know in the comments below and I’ll add them to my list. Both golf services lost a combined $600.

Onto the Soccer tipsters and shock horror, most of them sucked. The two profitable ones were Football Elite with $1,900 profit and the ever reliable Football Investor with $1,000 profit. Football Value lost $3,000 and TFA a mammoth $4,500. But even worse then all of them was the Winabobatoo service with a $6,000 loss. After just a few weeks I have lost any faith in this service. The odds recorded are bullshit and while the articles written each week are nice, they do nothing to help me make any profit. As always I will see the year out so I can write a proper review, but from what I have seen so far, this service does not deserve the accolades it gets from SBC.

So that’s it for another poor week. Not enjoying betting one bit at the moment. Will just need to keep persevering and if the past 4 and a bit years are anything to go by, it won’t be long before this all turns around and I’m cheering on the profits again. Don’t forget to come back tomorrow for an article which will really shed a light on the bookies.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Loss for the week was $21,994.84

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $1,412,319.00
Profit/Loss: $40,145.65
POT: -2.84%
Bets Placed: 2143
Won: 842
Lost: 1036
Half Payout: 19
Refunded: 246
Winning %: 44.8%
Total profit per day: $307,379.19 / 1546 = $198.82
Total Turnover: $15,755,062.37
Total ROI: 1.95%

AFL H2H – SP $46,456.00 $11,281.42 24.3%
week profit/loss: 1320

AFL Line – SP $241,906.00 $(28,861.77) -11.9%
week profit/loss: -4802.20

SP MLB $228,907.00 $15,142.38 6.6%
week profit/loss: 1783.15

NFL Totals $22,192.00 $1,144.50 5.2%
week profit/loss: -5403.40

NRL SP $32,841.00 $4,625.35 14.1%
week profit/loss: -408

ClubGowi $167,649.00 $4,090.46 2.4%
week profit/loss: -2638.75

GOWI $3,432.00 $669.00 19.5%
week profit/loss: -250

Diamond Edge $136,000.00 $1,456.50 1.1%
week profit/loss: -1302.50

PCG $108,017.00 $(3,881.21) -3.6%
week profit/loss: 869.50

Jason Kelly Golf $4,441.00 $(3,841.00) -86.5%
week profit/loss: -275

Betswot $6,138.00 $(4,383.00) -71.4%
week profit/loss: -325

FB Elite $5,500.00 $855.00 15.5%
week profit/loss: 1905

Football Value $8,000.00 $(3,925.00) -49.1%
week profit/loss: -3000

TFA 21 $21,487.00 $(2,752.00) -12.8%
week profit/loss: -437

TFA 41 $24,500.00 $(3,820.00) -15.6%
week profit/loss: -3330

6-21-31 $8,987.00 $(2,187.00) -24.3%
week profit/loss: -687

D1-D6 $4,000.00 $(535.00) -13.4%
week profit/loss: -35

Mike Lindley $7,500.00 $(545.00) -7.3%
week profit/loss: 5

WINABOBATOO $38,500.00 $(7,270.50) -18.9%
week profit/loss: -6034

FBI combo $3,000.00 $2,690.00 89.7%
week profit/loss: 1050

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Sep 3rd – Sep 16th +$5,533.03 http://www.daily25.com/sep-3rd-sep-16th-5533-03/ http://www.daily25.com/sep-3rd-sep-16th-5533-03/#comments Tue, 16 Sep 2014 02:25:23 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1992 ‘m still alive. Although barely. I managed to pick up whatever virus was going around last week and that in turn has brought back my childhood asthma. Ahh joy. Nothing like a wheezing 30 something...

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I‘m still alive. Although barely. I managed to pick up whatever virus was going around last week and that in turn has brought back my childhood asthma. Ahh joy. Nothing like a wheezing 30 something struggling to breathe while sitting still. I’ll keep this fortnightly update short. I think this is only the second time I have not posted  on time. That’s a pretty impressive strike-rate for something as mundane as a weekly profit and loss post.

Sportpunter just continues to be Sportpunter, and by that I mean making it rain dollars. AFL made $2,400, MLB Totals $10,750, NFL Totals $6,550 and NRL lost $21. I’m looking at upping my stakes on his other models to come more in line with AFL.

ClubGOWI had a week it would like to forget. I believe it lost about 20 units, which for me would be $10,000. I ended up down $6,000 as many of the bets never recovered their price (thank god) and that saved me from losing a further $4,000. It’s a weird feeling to wake up and see the scores and then hope your bets didn’t get matched. I’m sure Keith will bounce back.

Diamond Edge and PCG have been a real let down this year. While I like Diamond Edge as it’s simple to place bets and I can beat the odds quoted, the results have not been great. $1,900 lost this fortnight. Even worse is PCG, who has been poor since the day I joined. This fortnight we lost $1,000. I love how tipsters always say the same thing when a bad run is happening for them. We saw it with the Football tipsters last season (the ones who lost because they picked aways mostly said they had never seen so many home wins, and the ones who relied on home wins said it was the first season where draws were hitting more then usual). PCG has continued that trend by saying that he has never seen a run like this in MLB. Pretty funny that it seems that whoever I follow, these runs that never happen seem to happen on a very regular basis.

I had 4 seconds in the Golf over the past 2 weeks. So close, but not quite there. Jason Kelly lost $875 and Betswot lost $645.

Onto the soccer and I’ll keep my comments short this week as it is still early days and I want to give certain services a chance before I blast them. The first huge bet of the season was on Wrexham, but as the odds quoted were nowhere near close at game time, I had to leave this bet, which cost me a $6,000 profit. In midweek games the bet was again on them, and this time the odds did come back, they lost off course. Owltips made $650 but I have decided to stop following the service. It just isn’t right for me. I’ll write more about it next week. Football Value made $160, and FBI Combo bets made $1650. Mike Lindley bets lost $550 and I am playing his Winabobatoo service at $500 flat stakes on all Band A-C bets. That lost $1,250 over the first 2 weeks. I have real issues with odds recording for this service, but will give it more time before saying too much. TFA continued on from last season with a loss of $4,800. You will have to remember that my odds will not match official results for most services as I do not (because it is impossible to) bet when the tips come out. The limits are too low and the odds move too quickly to make it viable. I only place the bets if the odds come back within at least 7% of the quoted prices.

Had a few days over the last 2 weeks where I thought I might finally hit parity, but it wasn’t to be. I now have to rely on Soccer results to lift we back into profit for the year. I have already taken a bit of a hit early on in the season, and my confidence in Soccer once again is already waning. But early days and midweek is looking huge for both TFA and Winabob. Hopefully it results in some great profit. Back to bed for me.

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Total Profit for the week was $5,533.03

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $1,284,123.00
Profit/Loss: $(18,150.81)
POT: -1.41%
Bets Placed: 1854
Won: 765
Lost: 901
Half Payout: 16
Refunded: 172
Winning %: 45.9%
Total profit per day: $329,374.03 / 1539 = $214.01
Total Turnover: $15,626,866.37
Total ROI: 2.11%

AFL H2H – SP $43,156.00 $9,961.42 23.1%
week profit/loss: 55

AFL Line – SP $230,839.00 $(24,059.57) -10.4%
week profit/loss: 2374.38

SP MLB $208,924.00 $13,359.23 6.4%
week profit/loss: 10743.50

NFL Totals $12,453.00 $6,547.54 52.6%
week profit/loss: 6547.54

NRL SP $32,433.00 $5,033.35 15.5%
week profit/loss: -21

ClubGowi $146,749.00 $6,729.21 4.6%
week profit/loss: -5653.74

GOWI $3,182.00 $919.00 28.9%
week profit/loss: -325

Diamond Edge $123,500.00 $2,759.00 2.2%
week profit/loss: -1921

PCG $103,167.00 $(4,750.71) -4.6%
week profit/loss: -1010.15

Jason Kelly Golf $4,166.00 $(3,566.00) -85.6%
week profit/loss: -875

Betswot $5,813.00 $(4,058.00) -69.8%
week profit/loss: -645

OwlTips $18,127.00 $105.00 0.6%
week profit/loss: 650

FB Elite $3,000.00 $(1,050.00) -35.0%
week profit/loss: 0

Football Value $5,000.00 $(925.00) -18.5%
week profit/loss: 160

TFA 21 $6,500.00 $(2,315.00) -35.6%
week profit/loss: -2315

TFA 41 $8,000.00 $(490.00) -6.1%
week profit/loss: -490

6-21-31 $2,000.00 $(1,500.00) -75.0%
week profit/loss: -1500

D1-D6 $500.00 $(500.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -500

Mike Lindley $3,000.00 $(550.00) -18.3%
week profit/loss: -550

WINABOBATOO $14,000.00 $(1,236.50) -8.8%
week profit/loss: -1236.50

FBI combo $2,000.00 $1,640.00 82.0%
week profit/loss: 1640

The post Sep 3rd – Sep 16th +$5,533.03 appeared first on Daily25 Betting Blog.

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