Daily25 http://www.daily25.com Trying to make $250 per day with sports betting Tue, 16 Sep 2014 02:25:23 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0 Sep 3rd – Sep 16th +$5,533.03 http://www.daily25.com/sep-3rd-sep-16th-5533-03/ http://www.daily25.com/sep-3rd-sep-16th-5533-03/#comments Tue, 16 Sep 2014 02:25:23 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1992 ‘m still alive. Although barely. I managed to pick up whatever virus was going around last week and that in turn has brought back my childhood asthma. Ahh joy. Nothing like a wheezing 30 something...

The post Sep 3rd – Sep 16th +$5,533.03 appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
I‘m still alive. Although barely. I managed to pick up whatever virus was going around last week and that in turn has brought back my childhood asthma. Ahh joy. Nothing like a wheezing 30 something struggling to breathe while sitting still. I’ll keep this fortnightly update short. I think this is only the second time I have not posted  on time. That’s a pretty impressive strike-rate for something as mundane as a weekly profit and loss post.

Sportpunter just continues to be Sportpunter, and by that I mean making it rain dollars. AFL made $2,400, MLB Totals $10,750, NFL Totals $6,550 and NRL lost $21. I’m looking at upping my stakes on his other models to come more in line with AFL.

ClubGOWI had a week it would like to forget. I believe it lost about 20 units, which for me would be $10,000. I ended up down $6,000 as many of the bets never recovered their price (thank god) and that saved me from losing a further $4,000. It’s a weird feeling to wake up and see the scores and then hope your bets didn’t get matched. I’m sure Keith will bounce back.

Diamond Edge and PCG have been a real let down this year. While I like Diamond Edge as it’s simple to place bets and I can beat the odds quoted, the results have not been great. $1,900 lost this fortnight. Even worse is PCG, who has been poor since the day I joined. This fortnight we lost $1,000. I love how tipsters always say the same thing when a bad run is happening for them. We saw it with the Football tipsters last season (the ones who lost because they picked aways mostly said they had never seen so many home wins, and the ones who relied on home wins said it was the first season where draws were hitting more then usual). PCG has continued that trend by saying that he has never seen a run like this in MLB. Pretty funny that it seems that whoever I follow, these runs that never happen seem to happen on a very regular basis.

I had 4 seconds in the Golf over the past 2 weeks. So close, but not quite there. Jason Kelly lost $875 and Betswot lost $645.

Onto the soccer and I’ll keep my comments short this week as it is still early days and I want to give certain services a chance before I blast them. The first huge bet of the season was on Wrexham, but as the odds quoted were nowhere near close at game time, I had to leave this bet, which cost me a $6,000 profit. In midweek games the bet was again on them, and this time the odds did come back, they lost off course. Owltips made $650 but I have decided to stop following the service. It just isn’t right for me. I’ll write more about it next week. Football Value made $160, and FBI Combo bets made $1650. Mike Lindley bets lost $550 and I am playing his Winabobatoo service at $500 flat stakes on all Band A-C bets. That lost $1,250 over the first 2 weeks. I have real issues with odds recording for this service, but will give it more time before saying too much. TFA continued on from last season with a loss of $4,800. You will have to remember that my odds will not match official results for most services as I do not (because it is impossible to) bet when the tips come out. The limits are too low and the odds move too quickly to make it viable. I only place the bets if the odds come back within at least 7% of the quoted prices.

Had a few days over the last 2 weeks where I thought I might finally hit parity, but it wasn’t to be. I now have to rely on Soccer results to lift we back into profit for the year. I have already taken a bit of a hit early on in the season, and my confidence in Soccer once again is already waning. But early days and midweek is looking huge for both TFA and Winabob. Hopefully it results in some great profit. Back to bed for me.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Profit for the week was $5,533.03

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $1,284,123.00
Profit/Loss: $(18,150.81)
POT: -1.41%
Bets Placed: 1854
Won: 765
Lost: 901
Half Payout: 16
Refunded: 172
Winning %: 45.9%
Total profit per day: $329,374.03 / 1539 = $214.01
Total Turnover: $15,626,866.37
Total ROI: 2.11%

AFL H2H – SP $43,156.00 $9,961.42 23.1%
week profit/loss: 55

AFL Line – SP $230,839.00 $(24,059.57) -10.4%
week profit/loss: 2374.38

SP MLB $208,924.00 $13,359.23 6.4%
week profit/loss: 10743.50

NFL Totals $12,453.00 $6,547.54 52.6%
week profit/loss: 6547.54

NRL SP $32,433.00 $5,033.35 15.5%
week profit/loss: -21

ClubGowi $146,749.00 $6,729.21 4.6%
week profit/loss: -5653.74

GOWI $3,182.00 $919.00 28.9%
week profit/loss: -325

Diamond Edge $123,500.00 $2,759.00 2.2%
week profit/loss: -1921

PCG $103,167.00 $(4,750.71) -4.6%
week profit/loss: -1010.15

Jason Kelly Golf $4,166.00 $(3,566.00) -85.6%
week profit/loss: -875

Betswot $5,813.00 $(4,058.00) -69.8%
week profit/loss: -645

OwlTips $18,127.00 $105.00 0.6%
week profit/loss: 650

FB Elite $3,000.00 $(1,050.00) -35.0%
week profit/loss: 0

Football Value $5,000.00 $(925.00) -18.5%
week profit/loss: 160

TFA 21 $6,500.00 $(2,315.00) -35.6%
week profit/loss: -2315

TFA 41 $8,000.00 $(490.00) -6.1%
week profit/loss: -490

6-21-31 $2,000.00 $(1,500.00) -75.0%
week profit/loss: -1500

D1-D6 $500.00 $(500.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -500

Mike Lindley $3,000.00 $(550.00) -18.3%
week profit/loss: -550

WINABOBATOO $14,000.00 $(1,236.50) -8.8%
week profit/loss: -1236.50

FBI combo $2,000.00 $1,640.00 82.0%
week profit/loss: 1640

The post Sep 3rd – Sep 16th +$5,533.03 appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
http://www.daily25.com/sep-3rd-sep-16th-5533-03/feed/ 0
Why Punters are betting offshore. Because they have no other choice. http://www.daily25.com/punters-betting-offshore-choice/ http://www.daily25.com/punters-betting-offshore-choice/#comments Fri, 12 Sep 2014 05:09:11 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1977 This morning I read the following statement from the so called Australian Wagering Council (which is solely made up of Bristish Bookmakers) which really made me angry. You can read the entire thing here, but...

The post Why Punters are betting offshore. Because they have no other choice. appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
This morning I read the following statement from the so called Australian Wagering Council (which is solely made up of Bristish Bookmakers) which really made me angry.

You can read the entire thing here, but I’ll paste the gist of it.

Time to crack the whip on illegal offshore operators

The Australian Wagering Council has warned more Australians face losing their money and risks to the security of their personal and financial information, unless governments commit to a crackdown on the operations of illegal offshore wagering service providers.

The proliferation of illegal offshore operators again highlights the need for government reform of the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (Cth), which no longer reflects the current state of technology or advances in global harm
minimization measures.

It is estimated in excess of $1Billion is bet offshore by Australians annually and a 2014 report on interactive gambling, funded by Gambling Research Australia, found that at least one-third of interactive gamblers were not concerned about gambling with offshore providers.

“If you enjoy a bet on racing and sport make sure you do it with an Australian licensed, highly regulated wagering service provider”, Mr Downy concluded.

What a load of utter f&cken bulls#t. While betting with some offshore bookmakers is risky, they will at least take a bet from customers. It is infact the bookmakers that form the AWC that have forced punters hands and the only way they can now bet is to go offshore.

  • Do we want to send our money overseas? Off course not
  • Do we like having to risk never being paid? Umm No
  • If we could place our bets in Australia would we? HELL YES

Lets take a look at an example from today

I wanted to place $500 on South Sydney to win tonight’s big NRL finals game against Manly. The prices on the Australian bookies varied between 1.4 and 1.45. I could get better offshore, but lets say i really wanted to support local australian business (cough, hack, wheeze).

I went to Sportsbet first

sportsbetI’m not even allowed to bet 1 cent with them on the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Off to Tom Waterhouse (sportingbet and Centrebet)

tommaxI could bet a max of $76 here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What about Ladbrokes group (Ladbrokes, Bookmaker and Betstar)

betstarHmm, a mighty $113

Maybe off to Unibet then

unibet

 

They let me bet $200.

In total I could get $389 to win $163 across all Australian Wagering Council Bookmakers. My only choice is to bet offshore.

This happens every single day on every single bet most people try and place. This NRL game is a huge game and yet they limit or ban me completely. The Australian Wagering Council is dead right when it said “the need for government reform of the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (Cth), which no longer reflects the current state of technology”. The government needs to act immediately to stop these bookmakers from making Australian punters risk their money overseas. They need to make sure everyone is given a fair go and can bet whatever they like on all sports and that these corporate bookmakers pay a fair tax on their profits. These UK giants made a big mistake when they thought they could treat the Australian public the same way they treated the UK public for years.

Now sadly I am off to send money I really don’t want to overseas bookies. All thanks to the members of the Australian Wagering Council.

The post Why Punters are betting offshore. Because they have no other choice. appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
http://www.daily25.com/punters-betting-offshore-choice/feed/ 0
Pinnacle sports closes all UK accounts: How to still bet with them if you’re affected http://www.daily25.com/pinnacle-sports-closes-uk-accounts-still-bet-youre-affected/ http://www.daily25.com/pinnacle-sports-closes-uk-accounts-still-bet-youre-affected/#comments Fri, 12 Sep 2014 00:49:42 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1967 This morning would have been a rough one if you were a Pom, first you had to wake up knowing you’re English :), even worse then that (well equally as bad), is that you would...

The post Pinnacle sports closes all UK accounts: How to still bet with them if you’re affected appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
This morning would have been a rough one if you were a Pom, first you had to wake up knowing you’re English :), even worse then that (well equally as bad), is that you would have had an email saying your beloved Pinnacle account is being closed down on September 30th. It seems nobody loves you, even your own kind want to leave the fold. Although I’ve been told the Scots knew about this move by Pinnacle and it is a big reason the vote is looking more like a YES.

I was the only one in the world who saw this coming, as I posted last week when SBO closed all UK accounts.

Now by “heard”, I simply meant that I assumed. I do not have any contacts in the Pinnacle ranks (or do I?)

Lucky for you, Your Aussie brother in arms does love you and has a very simple solution. Any solution that will help my readers and also fill my pockets is a win win in my books.

The solution

Simple really. Sportmarket Pro.

What do you mean you haven’t heard of Sportmarket Pro before? I’ve been using them for a while and while I have my concerns as it’s a relatively new company and we saw what happened to Betbutler recently, the way they are doing things is very different and the way I had envisioned of running my own sportsbook software business. They just beat me too it.

I will do a full review of the service soon, but all they have done is open a heap of Accounts at the Big Asian books and Pinnacle and then allow you to see all the odds in a very simple interface. You can then bet on the one with the best odds and can even see the max bet. There are a few rules, the minimum bet you can place is €100 or currency equivalent. So it may not be for everyone.

sportpro

They make money a few ways. They charge a monthly fee (€25/£20/$30) if you don’t turn over a certain amount (€10,000) each month. But the real profit comes from the commission they get on turnover from the bookies. For every €10,000 euro you bet through their platform they get about €30 back from the bookies. The way they make money leads me to believe that this will be a profitable company and won’t have any issues like we saw with Bet Butler.

There are a few issues with the service, if you’re used to speed betting then bad luck, placing GOWI bets straight away through this platform will lead to frustration. You may need to change the way you bet. The layout is pretty ugly, but that’s a small price to pay to get Pinnacle & SBObet odds. I have seen drastic improvements every few months and now with a big influx of customers they will have some capital to really make this a great product.

So there you go. Steve to the rescue again. While killing off a large amount of the people who compete with me for prices is a great thing for me, I just couldn’t sit back and let you poms wallow in sadness. You guys whinge enough as it is. BTW, Winter is also on the way.. haha. OK, enough POM bashing, i do love you guys and do love the UK.

So there you go, get a Sportmarket PRO account and continue betting with great odds. Enjoy
logo_ibramarket
If you have any questions, I’ll answer them in the comments below.

keepcalm

The post Pinnacle sports closes all UK accounts: How to still bet with them if you’re affected appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
http://www.daily25.com/pinnacle-sports-closes-uk-accounts-still-bet-youre-affected/feed/ 23
Horse Racing Results August 2014 +$6,063.50 http://www.daily25.com/horse-racing-results-august-2014-6063-50/ http://www.daily25.com/horse-racing-results-august-2014-6063-50/#comments Thu, 04 Sep 2014 01:24:08 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1954 quick update on the Horse racing results for August. In total I bet $236,947.50 and made a profit of $6,063.50 which is a 2.56% ROI. You can look at the table below for each individual...

The post Horse Racing Results August 2014 +$6,063.50 appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
A quick update on the Horse racing results for August. In total I bet $236,947.50 and made a profit of $6,063.50 which is a 2.56% ROI. You can look at the table below for each individual services results.

Most of the profit was generated by a win bet that blew out to $33 and also the Exacta and Trifecta in the same race. That one race returned close to $25,000. I have also added 2 new services this month. I don’t see myself adding anything new from here on in for quite a while. I hope this portfolio works well over the upcoming Spring carnival.

The big news for September is the arrival of the minimum bet limits on NSW races. I have a live blog going as most bookmakers are trying to get around the rule in some very unscrupulous ways

Stats
Total bet amount: $648,390.50
Profit/Loss: $5,100.08
POT: 0.78%

Bets
Bets Placed: 1690
Won: 313
Lost: 1283
Refunded: 94
Winning %: 18.5%

Tipster
Wagers
Net Profit
Return
Wins
Bets
Win %
Monthly P/L
Smartform$111,959.00$7,420.006.6%3512927.1%$0
FL $68,301.00 $(2,597.50)-3.8%3816023.8%-$1,460.00
Dominic Bernie$9,226.00$450.004.9%104920.4%$0
Unofficial SF$8,674.00$(3,854.00)-44.4%3466.5%$0
Trialfiles$4,160.00$(1,333.00)-32.0%53215.6%$0
CTS$70,320.00$12,762.8818.1%5022022.7%$16,833.00
BDM$46,554.00$3,893.758.4%2012719.8%$152.50
RB$208,416.00$(9,681.55)-4.6%8051715.5%$8,903.00
RB Unofficial$43,916.50$13,600.5031.0%4319522.1%-$2,804.00
FTAU$42,780.00$(14,820.00)-34.6%2010119.8%-$14,820
ESM$23,530.00$3,539.0015.0%82927.6%$3,539.00
EP3$2,000.00$(560.00)-28.0%21020.0%-$560.00
EMM$4,600.00$(3,720.00)-80.9%2267.7%-$3,720.00

The post Horse Racing Results August 2014 +$6,063.50 appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
http://www.daily25.com/horse-racing-results-august-2014-6063-50/feed/ 1
Aug 27th – Sep 2nd +$4,364.14 http://www.daily25.com/aug-27th-sep-2nd-4364-14/ http://www.daily25.com/aug-27th-sep-2nd-4364-14/#comments Tue, 02 Sep 2014 04:45:20 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1944 lad to break the losing run with a decent profit this week. Once again the fluctuations were large over the 7 day period, at one stage sitting on -$45,000 and at another on just a...

The post Aug 27th – Sep 2nd +$4,364.14 appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
Glad to break the losing run with a decent profit this week. Once again the fluctuations were large over the 7 day period, at one stage sitting on -$45,000 and at another on just a $20,000 loss for the year. The big news this week was the introduction of mandatory limits on NSW racing. I have set up a live blog and will update it daily until all bookmakers have realised that their stupid loopholes won’t work.

I’ll first start with the usual moan. One big issue I had this week was with the PCG (Pro computer gambler) service. Tom advised some bets on college football. These were big bets too, 2 units on three separate games. Now only 1 bookmaker had the lines up for this game and the max bet they take is to win $250. 2 units for me means $1,000 on these picks. By the time I woke up these lines has moved from -8,-9 and -4 to -13, -19 and -9.5. These are massive moves and not unexpected if there is only 1 bookmaker offering the lines with a $250 limit. The same issue happened when I tried to follow college bets with Sportpunter, the lines move quickly and unless you could get on first, then it was a pointless exercise. I emailed Tom asking if he still thought I should bet as the lines had blown out. He replied with “In my opinion, the books shouldn’t even offer betting on these games. I don’t think the line matters that much.”. So I decided to bet them. You can already guess what happened. One game won, one game lost and one game won for the service while losing for me. So while the official return will state close to 2 units profit, the reality for most people is a 2 unit loss. A 4 unit turnaround. These games should not be sent out as official plays, when only 1 person can get a tiny amount on it, it just isn’t fair. It leaves me seriously questioning whether to continue with the service. I have been told the NFL is where most of the profits will come from, so will see where it takes me this season.

Continuing onto ClubGOWI and rebounding odds. Sadly for a lot of bets this week, if you don’t bet the second the emails come out then you wont be getting on. 5 of the 7 Soccer bets posted on the weekend never came back and were therefore no bets for me. Luckily 3 of the 5 lost and didn’t cost me. My thinking on the issue is the ones that don’t rebound are more likely to win, but hopefully this isn’t true. At the end of this year I should have more then enough data to see if this is the case. We had a similar case with Owltips bets, where the odds were pushed down within seconds and never came back. I managed to get on the one losing bet and missed the two winners.

This also got me thinking (a very dangerous act). It’s clear that some of the followers of these services have no idea about value. They will take whatever odds are available and keep pushing the price further down. Now Owltips long term profit shows an 8% return to best prices. My thinking was that the other side then becomes value when it’s odds increase by more then 8%. The other teams odds improve 10-20% after these emails are released and maybe by blind backing them I would make a profit. I asked Jonno from Sportspunter if this was the case and using our friend maths showed that the odds would need to increase by over 30% to make it profitable. Maybe one for the maths guys who read this blog. Your thoughts and equations in the comments section please.

Onto the weeks results and the AFL made a very welcome return to profit this week. It was the final round and I’m sure many people would have decided to not bet this round as most teams had no reason to play hard. It’s always interesting to talk about motivation in these type of games. Jonno made recommendations on what not to bet on and I followed his advice on the Hawthorn game, which cost me $2,000 profit. I decided that as it was a player based model, the probabilities should be a good indication as these guys are professionals and both sides should play to their full capacity no matter what. I bet all the other games but did bet less on the West Coast game which cost me a further $3,000 profit. Still very happy with the weekends return of $11,000. Boy am I glad I stopped following the Tennis model, I decided to track the results of the US Open and would be down $10,000. That feels like money made to me. The baseball totals model has made a massive comeback and added a further $3,800 profit this week. NRL lost $700 but that could have been so different with Manly running in a try with 15 seconds left to take away a massive win. Sportpunter ends its poor run and hopefully this is the start of great things again.

ClubGOWI made $1,200, but that is based on only the bets I could get matched. Diamond Edge has been on a horrendous run the past 2 weeks, losing a further $2,300 this week. PCG had a nightmare week with a $5,500 loss. Both Golf tipsters lost $600 combined and in the Soccer, Owltips lost $100, Fb Elite lost $500 and Football Value lost $2,000.

Still treading water for year 5 and hoping for a good run to get me back into profit. This week should be entertaining as a number of Soccer tipsters will be sending their first bets.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Profit for the week was $4,364.12

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $1,099,299.00
Profit/Loss: $(23,683.84)
POT: -2.15%
Bets Placed: 1512
Won: 649
Lost: 746
Half Payout: 12
Refunded: 105
Winning %: 46.5%
Total profit per day: $323,841.00 / 1525 = $212.35
Total Turnover: $15,442,042.37
Total ROI: 2.10%

ATP – SP $180,114.00 $(20,446.90) -11.4%
week profit/loss: 0

WTA – SP $124,622.00 $509.62 0.4%
week profit/loss: 0

AFL H2H – SP $40,166.00 $9,906.42 24.7%
week profit/loss: -840

AFL Line – SP $218,389.00 $(26,433.95) -12.1%
week profit/loss: 11927.62

SP MLB $168,364.00 $2,615.73 1.6%
week profit/loss: 3852.52

NRL SP $24,717.00 $5,054.35 20.4%
week profit/loss: -701

ClubGowi $113,914.00 $12,382.95 10.9%
week profit/loss: 595

GOWI $2,857.00 $1,244.00 43.5%
week profit/loss: 575

Diamond Edge $104,500.00 $4,680.00 4.5%
week profit/loss: -2330

PCG $80,342.00 $(3,740.56) -4.7%
week profit/loss: -5460

Jason Kelly Golf $3,291.00 $(2,691.00) -81.8%
week profit/loss: -325

Betswot $4,918.00 $(3,413.00) -69.4%
week profit/loss: -315

OwlTips $14,727.00 $(545.00) -3.7%
week profit/loss: -115

FB Elite $3,000.00 $(1,050.00) -35.0%
week profit/loss: -500

Football Value $3,000.00 $(1,085.00) -36.2%
week profit/loss: -2000

The post Aug 27th – Sep 2nd +$4,364.14 appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
http://www.daily25.com/aug-27th-sep-2nd-4364-14/feed/ 20
Racing NSW September 1 live blog. http://www.daily25.com/racing-nsw-september-1-live-blog/ http://www.daily25.com/racing-nsw-september-1-live-blog/#comments Mon, 01 Sep 2014 03:11:03 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1925 Today is the just the start of what will be a massive change in the Australian wagering landscape. From today (September 1st), all bookmakers need to accept bets on all NSW races from everyone. This...

The post Racing NSW September 1 live blog. appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
Today is the just the start of what will be a massive change in the Australian wagering landscape. From today (September 1st), all bookmakers need to accept bets on all NSW races from everyone. This is a big day for many punters whose accounts have been limited or closed because they dare to make a profit from their punting. Today is the first step in a betting utopia, where if you want to place a bet on something, you can. It’s pathetic that the previous statement is seen as a utopia and not the way things are. We start with NSW racing and in the next year I’m positive the other states will come on board. Then we take the fight over to all Australian sports.

In June I wrote an article about the sleazy ways bookmakers would try and get around these new rules. You can read that article here. In a nutshell I said they would do a few things to stop profitable gamblers and get around these new rules.

I said they would

  • Close accounts
  • Increase their over-round (give worse odds to certain customers)
  • Remove fixed odds
  • Add deposit fees
  • Charge customers a turnover tax
  • Have tiered accounts.

I will keep updating this blog post all month until all bookmakers come into line with the new rules. We have already seen a few dodgy operators and some that are complying with the new rules.

Unibet Australia

A pathetic attempt from Unibet the night before the new rules are implemented, closing down accounts of any profitable punter.

Tomwaterhouse, Sportingbet and Centrebet

Why would they even think they could get away with this? This group have simply made tiered accounts as I mentioned in the previous post, which is completely against the rules. Any winning punter will see the correct odds if they are not logged into their account, but once they do, the will then see the odds they can get (which are far far worse). Here is a simple comparison of the next race. What we see below is the prices that normal (losing) punters are able to bet on, and then we see what potentially winning punters are able to get. Punters will remember which bookies were sleazy and which ones complied.  

On the left we have the prices for losing punters, on the right the prices for profitable punters (click to enlarge)

On the left we have the prices for losing punters, on the right the prices for profitable punters

 

Ladbrokes group (Ladbrokes.com.au, Bookmaker.com.au and Betstar.com.au)

These guys are just trying to make it as difficult as possible to have accounts reopened. Pointless really, but another sleazy tactic. 

If you have any other things to add let me know in the comments below.

Updates

1:30pm Sportsbet & Betstar still not offering fixed odds to previous closed accounts.

1:37 pm Looks like Bet365 is complying (good stuff Bet365)


2:34 pm TAB and Sportsbet still not accepting wagers.

Day 2

Richard Irvine, who has spearheaded this campaign and deserves a lot of free drinks from many punters was on RSN this morning talking to Shane Anderson about day 1. It seems a lot of bookies are being very stubborn. I have a simple solution for that. Racing NSW gives them till Friday to implement the changes and allow everyone to bet, or they don’t allow them to take any bets on any NSW race on Saturday, this will make them change their minds quick smart. They might be sleazy, but once you hit them where it hurts, they will comply in record time.

2:00 pm I have completed my first form against Centrebet. The process is a bit convoluted, but I’m sure it will get better over time. These are the steps I took (all up took me about 15 minutes). Please take the time to do this yourself as the more people who complain, the quicker this will get sorted.

  1. Emailed Centrebet asking them to put my odds back to the normal odds
  2. Received a reply stating they would not change my odds “We have absolute discretion over which odds/prices we choose to offer. All odds displayed on the website/apps are indicative only until you have logged into your account.  The odds offered are those that are displayed after you have logged in and at the time the wager is confirmed by you.”
  3. I went to Racing NSW’s complaint page (https://forms.racingnsw.com.au/forms/minimumbetlimitscomplaint.html)
  4. I filled it in and clicked Print and Submit (I am hoping they make it all online shortly)
  5. I printed the document, signed it and then took photos with my iphone of each page.
  6. I sent the photos to my email account and saved them to my computer.
  7. I then emailed NSW Racing on mbcomplaints@racingnsw.com.au and uploaded the images and a copy of my passport.
  8. Now I play the waiting game.

Day 4

11:30 am Some good news as it looks like Sportsbet have decided to extend the rules imposed by NSW racing to all states. Now they are free to take this away at anytime, but they understand that the goodwill this will generate far outweighs any loss they may take (if any) from this move. I am also still waiting from any type of reply from Racing NSW about my complaint against Centrebet. I have also started filling in the copious amount of documentation that Ladbrokes asked for before they will allow me to bet with them again.

1:00 pm Just received a call from Racing NSW as I had no filled in my entire address. I asked what sort of time frame we would be looking at and was told they will be expecting a response from the bookmaker by the end of the week.

The post Racing NSW September 1 live blog. appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
http://www.daily25.com/racing-nsw-september-1-live-blog/feed/ 16
Why Pinnacle Sports sucks for the average bettor http://www.daily25.com/pinnacle-sucks-average-bettor/ http://www.daily25.com/pinnacle-sucks-average-bettor/#comments Wed, 27 Aug 2014 06:54:49 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1904 Now that I have removed all advertising from my site, I can happily bash bookmakers without worrying about them closing my affiliate accounts. Sadly all the reviews you read about sportsbooks are mostly bullshit, as...

The post Why Pinnacle Sports sucks for the average bettor appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
Now that I have removed all advertising from my site, I can happily bash bookmakers without worrying about them closing my affiliate accounts. Sadly all the reviews you read about sportsbooks are mostly bullshit, as the people writing them have a vested interest in you signing up. Not me. I’m free to write the truth about each and every bookmaker.

I have been a big supporter of Pinnacle sports on this site. They continue to offer great prices and high limits. Over 50% of my bets last year were placed with them. But over the past year they have done a few things that didn’t sit right with me. I first asked them to explain why they say everyone gets the same high limits while clearly disproving it. I then asked why they offer lower odds on Parlay bets then straight bets. I have also mentioned that they now send certain bets to a trader and cancel bets, Pinnacle denied this ever happens but a number of readers have also seen the problem. There also seem to be issues with some UK customers as I believe they are trying to get a license there at the moment.

Their most recent move has been to increase the industry standard of one times turnover on deposits to five times turnover on deposits. They even have the audacity to say

failure to meet our industry standard deposit roll-over threshold (five times deposit amount) will incur a 3% processing fee on the deposit and any applicable withdrawal fee.

This is just an out and out lie by them. The industry standard they speak off has always been and still is one times turnover. Now there are a number of reasons I have heard of why they have done this, but the simple real reason is so they can make more profit.

pinnaclesports

Not really true advertising

One of the these reasons is to stop money laundering, so what they are really saying here is “you can money launder through our site, but give us a fair cut”. Another reason which I can understand is that people are simply depositing to get reward points (Neteller or Credit Card), turning over once and then withdrawing and redepositing. Pinnacle does pay a fee every time someone deposits. Credit Card companies charge about 1% and Ewallets usually a little more. Pinnacle could stop this by talking to the Ewallets and not allowing points to count (as Betfair and others have done).

Why is Pinnacle crap for the average punter?

So why do I say that Pinnacle sucks for the average punter? Before I can state why, I will first need to make some assumptions. My idea of a typical punter is below.

Assumptions of the average bettor (from talking to employees of Australia’s biggest bookmakers)
  • Average bet size of $30
  • Average of 6 bets per week
  • Usually withdraws at the end of every week
I will also add a few other provisos to make the maths as easy as possible.
  • Bets line bets only (Pinnacle 1.952, other books 1.91)
  • no multis
  • will happily take up bonus offers
  • will not take Horse racing into equation as Pinnacle does not bet that
  • punter will only use the one website (doesn’t shop for the best odds)
  • punter hits line bets at 50%
  • flat bets

Now you have to understand that the average punter is a losing punter. They place a few bets on the weekend and withdraw whatever is left on Sunday afternoon. We now have some figures to work with.

note: this is a very simple breakdown of an average punter and may be far from what they are really like. But the average stake size is correct and the amount turned over each week is also very close.

The (very simple) maths

With 6 bets per week and $30 spent on each bet. The average punter will bet $180 a week. The average punter also doesn’t look for value, so will place all his bets at the one place. Using all this data we can assume that he will win 3 bets per week. Again, this is on average over a whole year.

Return at your average Australian bookmaker

3 line bets @ $1.91 for $30 a bet lost = -$90.00

3 line bets @ 1.91 for $30 a bet won = +$81.90

Total loss for the week = $8.10

Total loss over a year is $8.10 * 52 = $421.20

Return at Pinnacle

3 line bets @ $1.952 for $30 a bet lost = -$90.00

3 line bets @ 1.952 for $30 a bet won = +$85.68

Total loss for the week = $4.32

Total loss over a year is $4.32 * 52 = $224.64

We have a clear winner right. If only our average punter would place all his bets at Pinnacle, he would only lose $224.64 a year. He would be $196.56 better off. But it’s not so simple is it. Remember that Pinnacle customers need to turnover their deposits 5 times before they can withdraw. So straight away our punter is at a disadvantage betting there. The same $150 deposit he puts into the Australian sportsbook on Friday and withdraws on Sunday will need to stay in his Pinnacle account for 5 weeks. So over the year he will make $9,360 in deposits to the Aussie bookie and only $1,872 to Pinnacle. If our punter was using a rewards credit card then he would make an extra profit off $60 by sticking with the Aussie bookie. Still, Pinnacle is $136.56 in front.

Pinnacle boasts that it does not offer bonuses and says their odds more then make up for that. But most Australian bookies offer a $500 deposit bonus (many offer much higher). This needs to be turned over the industry standard once and only winnings from the freebet are added to the account. These bets can easily be matched off on betfair to retain 70-80% of the bonus. So at worst this free bet is worth $350 to our average punter. So now the Australian bookies are looking a lot more attractive with a lead of $213.44. But it doesn’t stop there.

aussieAustralian bookies are in a very giving mood at the moment as they all fight to sign up as many customers as possible. They not only give a very nice welcome bonus, but every week they have many ongoing bonuses. They have free bets, refunds, value bets, and even return losses when something weird happens (this week alone I received $700 back when a horse went berserk in a race, the bookie decided to pay out the winner and refund all the other bets). Being extremely conservative here, I would say there is another $500 of value for your average punter by taking up a few of these offers. So now the Aussie bookie is looking really good and is easily $713.44 better off then Pinnacle in a year. There has never been a better time for Aussie punters (well maybe a few years ago, but its still amazing).

Whereas the average punter has zero chance of making a profit at Pinnacle, with credit card rewards, signup bonuses and ongoing bonuses, your average Joe could very easily come out ahead each year by betting at Aussie bookies. While I hate giving any credit to the Australian bookies, it’s a pretty clear choice for any aussie punter.

If all you want to do is place a few bets over the weekend for a bit of fun, then stick with the Aussie bookies. Luckily there is no rule that says you can only bet at one bookmaker. So you should be getting the best of both worlds. Take the better odds when you can at Pinnacle (knowing that you can’t withdraw until you turnover the very non industry standard 5 times), and take up the offers at the Aussie books. This is where I would usually pitch you about my service that shows you how to make the most from all these bookmakers offers and also how to use Pinnacle to your advantage, but as the service is not accepting new members right now, you won’t have to listen to me blab on about it.

Why Pinnaclebet has an uphill battle

Pinnaclebet is Pinnacles attempt to join the Australian market. I feel they have a huge uphill battle ahead of them. As they do no advertising and offer no incentives to join, only current Pinnacle customers might make the move to the Australian version. They may get new customers via word of mouth but will not build up much of a base. The current corporate bookmakers in Australia really have nothing to fear from Pinnaclebet. It just doesn’t offer value to most people.

Yes Pinnacle is the world’s best bookmaker…. for high turnover bettors. For the other 98% of people it’s better to go with the ones that offer bonuses and the industry standard 1x turnover.

I’m sure most of my readers are Pinnacle lovers, so you can attack me in the comments below. Have at me.

The post Why Pinnacle Sports sucks for the average bettor appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
http://www.daily25.com/pinnacle-sucks-average-bettor/feed/ 10
Aug 20th – Aug 26th -$2,996.58 http://www.daily25.com/aug-20th-aug-26th-2996-58/ http://www.daily25.com/aug-20th-aug-26th-2996-58/#comments Tue, 26 Aug 2014 05:20:30 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1896 nother very disappointing week and while the loss was not as big as last week, it felt even more depressing then usual. I was sitting on close to negative $40,000 for the year on Sunday...

The post Aug 20th – Aug 26th -$2,996.58 appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
Another very disappointing week and while the loss was not as big as last week, it felt even more depressing then usual. I was sitting on close to negative $40,000 for the year on Sunday afternoon before an AFL win and then a win on the Golf clawed back most of the losses. I really felt like betting had dropped off a cliff and there was no way I could continue to make money from it. I started to try and think of ways to make some guaranteed profit to pay the bills. Deciding to stop consulting work to concentrate on the site has meant a big squeeze on my finances and it doesn’t help that I have ethics that won’t allow me to make some quick money by pushing you all to join dodgy sportsbooks. The money involved in the affiliate business is massive and I could easily make a years wage in a matter of days by sending an email to all my subscribers and telling them about great new sportsbooks, but I know I would be lying and these sportsbooks don’t deserve new customers if they won’t treat them well. So if I ever seem to be trying to make a quick buck unethically, please publicly shame me on it. It is very strange how my mentality has changed now, taking into account no steady stream of income, the loss of my partners income (as she stops work for 18 months), and the soon to be arrival of my first kid. I long for an income stream that I know will be there every week to pay the bills and keep us fed. Luckily betting has provided a very healthy emergency fund for these very moments. Wow, woe is me. Ignore my moaning, this blog is my release valve. I know I’ll be fine and I know eventually things will turn around (over the long term).

That moaning leads onto the top 3 articles that I will try and write over the next month. I had a great response to the poll with over 260 of you voting in under 24 hours. The clear winner with 74 votes was the one about why I feel Pinnacle is a poor choice for small time bettors. In second place with 66 votes will be me showing you a video of how I go about placing my bets. In 3rd place, you get to see how I deal with my losses (more then just ranting on this blog), that article scored 44 votes.

In other news, I stopped following the Sportpunter Tennis models early in the week, normally I hate to stop following a service if I have not lost the bank I set up for it, but after following the model for over 4 years, something is very off with the old and now new models. The WTA seems to be stable, but the ATP is clearly not profitable in it’s current state. Normally when you stop following a service it starts to perform, but I have saved myself at least $8k this week from stopping and I’m very happy with that. Jonno has been working night and day trying to fix it, and I’m sure eventually he will figure it out. When he does I’ll be back on the ATP bandwagon. It’s quite a weird feeling not to be betting on tennis, as the US Open was the first event that really made a massive return for me in my second year when I had lost every cent I had made in the previous 14 months. Tennis is a great sport to have in your portfolio as it is played year round, limits are quite high and prices do not crash drastically. I hope my stay away is short lived.

Onto the weeks results and sadly Sportpunter didn’t perform again. With just 1 more round in the AFL before the finals, this seasons profit has not lived up to expectations (to clarify, my expectations were 100k profit). I do laugh at myself for being upset at a profit of $40,000 so far this season and feeling as though it has had a pretty poor year. This week I lost $7,000 on AFL, $300 on Tennis (before I stopped), $150 on NRL and the only profitable system was the MLB totals which made $2,800. All SP models combined since July 1st sit at a $43,705 loss.

ClubGOWI made $1,200 profit which included the Golf win alluded to above. Seems the big priced winners continue to cover the many smaller losses. Can not complain about the overall results though as I sit on close to $20,000 profit since December last year (with an extra $6k almost guaranteed with the Rory bet). My hope was to make 100 points profit in a year and we are on track.

The other Golf tipsters haven’t hit in a while and combined they lost $900 this week. Diamond Edge ended it’s recent great run with a loss of $2,800 and PCG made a small $300 profit.

I added another new service to my Soccer portfolio this season and it started with a win. Football Value is the newest member and this is a service with very few bets a season (50-80), but a pretty impressive track record. I will be following with $1,000 bets. This week Football Value made $915 profit. Owltips got back on track this week and I give credit to the way the service is run, they work hard to figure out the best times to send bets so that limits are high enough for people to get on. So far I’ve found that prices do not rebound so I need to get on straight away and will usually get 2-5c worse odds then those shown. $1,800 profit for Owltips this week. Football Elite also had a profitable week with $950 profit. The season is really starting to get into full swing and all the big boys will start sending bets in the next month.

I’m excited once again for this Soccer season. I just know that it’s ready to have that 1 amazing year where they all perform to their historical returns. I feel I learnt a lot of valuable lessons last season and will be implementing a few changes which should hopefully result in a lot smoother journey. I still hold out hope that I will be in profit by the time the first big round of Soccer bets are posted. Until next week.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Loss for the week was $2,996.58

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $989,664.00
Profit/Loss: $(28,047.98)
POT: -2.83%
Bets Placed: 1335
Won: 586
Lost: 659
Half Payout: 10
Refunded: 80
Winning %: 47.1%
Total profit per day: $319,476.86 / 1518 = $210.45
Total Turnover: $15,332,407.37
Total ROI: 2.08%

ATP – SP $180,114.00 $(20,446.90) -11.4%
week profit/loss: -522.28

WTA – SP $124,622.00 $509.62 0.4%
week profit/loss: 235.30

AFL H2H – SP $36,416.00 $10,746.42 29.5%
week profit/loss: -1354.12

AFL Line – SP $197,107.00 $(38,361.57) -19.5%
week profit/loss: -5590.78

SP MLB $147,733.00 $(1,236.79) -0.8%
week profit/loss: 2805.52

NRL SP $21,987.00 $5,755.35 26.2%
week profit/loss: -156.75

ClubGowi $92,139.00 $11,787.95 12.8%
week profit/loss: 1425

GOWI $2,357.00 $669.00 28.4%
week profit/loss: -200

Diamond Edge $90,000.00 $7,010.00 7.8%
week profit/loss: -2824.50

PCG $63,142.00 $1,719.44 2.7%
week profit/loss: 351.03

Jason Kelly Golf $2,966.00 $(2,366.00) -79.8%
week profit/loss: -550

Betswot $4,603.00 $(3,098.00) -67.3%
week profit/loss: -325

OwlTips $10,600.00 $(430.00) -4.1%
week profit/loss: 1855

FB Elite $2,500.00 $(550.00) -22.0%
week profit/loss: 950

Football Value $1,000.00 $915.00 91.5%
week profit/loss: 915

The post Aug 20th – Aug 26th -$2,996.58 appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
http://www.daily25.com/aug-20th-aug-26th-2996-58/feed/ 6
What should I write about next? http://www.daily25.com/write-next/ http://www.daily25.com/write-next/#comments Sun, 24 Aug 2014 00:06:36 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1879 have a massive list of potential blog posts I want to write. There are literally limitless things to write about when it comes to betting. But with so much choice comes paralysis. It’s just like...

The post What should I write about next? appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
I have a massive list of potential blog posts I want to write. There are literally limitless things to write about when it comes to betting. But with so much choice comes paralysis. It’s just like heading to the supermarket to pick up cereal, there are so many choices that at the end you just decide not to get any of them. This is known as the paradox of choice (a great read). So instead of wasting my time figuring out what to write next, I’ll take that burden from my shoulders and give it to you.

I have randomly picked 8 topics from my list of over 100 and the one with the most votes at the end of the week will be the one I write about. So if any of them tickles your fancy then vote for it.

If there is something you want me to write about not on the list, then post it in the comments section.

Question 1
What should my next article be?

The post What should I write about next? appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
http://www.daily25.com/write-next/feed/ 5
Joining the Friendly Tipster League http://www.daily25.com/joining-friendly-tipster-league/ http://www.daily25.com/joining-friendly-tipster-league/#comments Wed, 20 Aug 2014 05:45:04 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=1872 I’m now a fully paid entrant in the Friendly Tipster League (FTL) run by Cassini over at the Green All Over blog. I’ve paid my £52.50 and I’ll be on the list as the aptly named...

The post Joining the Friendly Tipster League appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
I’m now a fully paid entrant in the Friendly Tipster League (FTL) run by Cassini over at the Green All Over blog. I’ve paid my £52.50 and I’ll be on the list as the aptly named Daily25. The competition has grown over the last 2 years and is just a group of tipsters and bloggers vying for some ego. As always, I’m fairly confident I’ll rein (see what I did there) on all their parades and come out the winner. I’ll receive about £1,000 pounds for my troubles. Like taking candy from some middle aged men.

I believe there are still 2 places available and really, the return on investment is pretty good. From what I have seen over the last few years, these guys will be easy to beat :). So get in quick if you’re thinking of joining.

So what’s my strategy? Well as I have mentioned copious times before on this blog, I couldn’t pick a winner if it smashed me across the face. But I am more then happy to pay other people to do the hard work for me. I pay a few tipsters that have bets in the same league, we know how well multiple bets did for me last season, but what I will be doing is selecting bets if TFA, Winabob, FB investor, or FB Elite agree. I think if 3 of them have chosen the same bet then that’s a pretty good indicator. A friend (Edwin) did some analysis using WIN,TFA and FBI last season and these bets produced a 13% ROI.

I wish the other entrants luck as they vie for second place.

The post Joining the Friendly Tipster League appeared first on Daily25.

]]>
http://www.daily25.com/joining-friendly-tipster-league/feed/ 0