Daily25 Betting Blog http://www.daily25.com Trying to make $250 per day with sports betting Tue, 25 Nov 2014 07:12:19 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0.1 Nov 19th – Nov 25th +$33,407.46 http://www.daily25.com/nov-19th-nov-25th-30000/ http://www.daily25.com/nov-19th-nov-25th-30000/#comments Tue, 25 Nov 2014 07:11:14 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2207 ild swings have become the norm now and happily for me, this weeks swing was all up. The biggest bet of the week lost. A massive $8,000 on an NBL game, but Soccer made a...

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Wild swings have become the norm now and happily for me, this weeks swing was all up. The biggest bet of the week lost. A massive $8,000 on an NBL game, but Soccer made a storming comeback with some big priced winners. I’m still waiting for back to back massive weeks to get me into some decent profit, but I have belief that it will come soon. The profits were shared amongst all sports this week, a very rare occurrence.

Sadly the NBL model has been woeful. It had a terrible first week, followed by an amazing run and now a shockingly bad run. Hopefully we see a turnaround soon. It lost a further $8.800 this week (I missed a $3k winning bet though). The NFL model lost $700, but the other American based sports did really well. NHL Totals returned $2,300 profit and the NBA Model continues to shine with over $16,000 profit this week.

Most ClubGowi members would have had a losing week, but not me, I made $2,900 thanks to only betting when I could get close to his quoted odds. Also thanks to many of his not so bright customers who seem to bet at any odds and crush the prices which produce value on the other side. So not only have I saved money by not betting the losing plays, I’m actually making money from opposing them. This week thanks to Gowi members and some TFA & Winabob members, I made an extra $2,500 profit. I’ve now signed up to ClubGowi for an extra 12 months and will use it to bet against any selections that are crushed by his huge following. I have still yet to be paid out on my Golf win so that will be included in next weeks update.

PCG had a very solid week with a return of $3,300, hopefully that continues over the coming months. Jason Kelly golf lost $75.

Soccer combined added $15,600 profit for the week and is now just a few grand down overall. The big mover was TFA with $9,600 profit and my specific portfolio now sits at a small $2,300 loss. That’s nothing at all and after such a poor start and with us coming into what is historically a profitable time, I can start hoping to see some profit once again from this model. Football Elite added $1,200 but Football Value lost $2,000. Value is a newly introduced tipster this season and has not impressed so far, but the loss is small and a few wins will get me smiling again. Winabobatoo had another winning week (for the bets I could get on) and added $2,200 profit. After the amazing start for combo football investor, this system has also done poorly and is now in negative territory after losing $1,900 this week, but luckily for me, I also follow the Euro system and that produced an incredible $6,500 profit to inch into profit for the season.

A very strong performance all-round from the Tipsters this week and once again I am sitting on some profit. Looking forward to a strong December to cap off another solid (but not exceptional) year of betting. I’ll be busy this week creating a new business which I hope you will all find fun and exciting. It is an idea I have had for the past 5 years but have never had the time to make it. I have joined up with a few old friends and will be competing in a hackathon (bunch of nerds get together and create something over a weekend) and we hope to take out the top prize and create what I think could potentially become a very big business and help a lot of people. More on that next week.

A lot more cautious this week as I was in the exact same position just a few weeks ago and it crashed back down very quickly. I’ll just take this week as it comes, whatever will be will be…. you know the rest of the song…. Until next week.

Actually, not until next week just yet, one more thing. My industry insider who wrote a very popular article 2 months ago is now ready to write something new for the site. What would you like to know from someone inside the bookies? Put your questions in the comments section and he will happily answer them in the next article.

Total Profit for the week was $33,407.46

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $2,861,749.93
Profit/Loss: $3,322.77
POT: 0.12%
Bets Placed: 4200
Won: 1511
Lost: 1958
Half Payout: 37
Refunded: 694
Winning %: 43.6%
Total profit per day: $350,847.61 / 1609 = $218.05
Total Turnover: $17,204,493.30
Total ROI: 2.04%

NBL Totals $26,810.00 $(15,976.69) -59.6%
week profit/loss: 0

NBL Line $84,590.00 $8,356.84 9.9%
week profit/loss: -8804

NFL Totals $79,884.00 $10,202.94 12.8%
week profit/loss: -1968.76

NFL Line $17,524.00 $2,465.60 14.1%
week profit/loss: 1290.20

NHL Totals $67,626.00 $12,134.65 17.9%
week profit/loss: 2317.85

NBA Totals $143,909.00 $25,593.92 17.8%
week profit/loss: 6819.34

NBA H2H $91,224.00 $10,558.53 11.6%
week profit/loss: 9449.34

ClubGowi $346,065.00 $11,365.54 3.3%
week profit/loss: 2916.95

GOWI $10,951.00 $(3,360.00) -30.7%
week profit/loss: 0

PCG $158,981.00 $(1,865.48) -1.2%
week profit/loss: 3282.77

Jason Kelly Golf $8,821.93 $(7,331.93) -83.1%
week profit/loss: -75

Betswot $8,313.00 $(6,558.00) -78.9%
week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $59,250.00 $7,632.50 12.9%
week profit/loss: 1210

Football Value $22,000.00 $(2,205.00) -10.0%
week profit/loss: -2000

TFA 21 $117,014.00 $(4,006.80) -3.4%
week profit/loss: 4567.50

TFA 41 $113,800.00 $(8,392.50) -7.4%
week profit/loss: 3493.50

6-21-31 $69,907.00 $3,790.72 5.4%
week profit/loss: 3105

D1-D6 $36,000.00 $2,385.00 6.6%
week profit/loss: 2475

E1-E6 $23,740.00 $3,935.00 16.6%
week profit/loss: -4000

Mike Lindley $31,000.00 $(2,488.50) -8.0%
week profit/loss: 1311.50

WINABOBATOO $124,979.00 $(11,482.18) -9.2%
week profit/loss: 880.42

FBI combo $64,500.00 $(113.00) -0.2%
week profit/loss: -1920

FBI Euro $43,000.00 $525.00 1.2%
week profit/loss: 6490

Odds pushed out $19,500.00 $5,210.25 26.7%
week profit/loss: 2549.75

Personal $12,348.00 $(4,227.54) -34.2%
week profit/loss: 16.10

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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Nov 12th – Nov 18th -$11,645.44 http://www.daily25.com/nov-12th-nov-18th-11645-44/ http://www.daily25.com/nov-12th-nov-18th-11645-44/#comments Tue, 18 Nov 2014 01:26:17 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2199 ack to back losing weeks and from a position of profit just a fortnight ago to back into the doldrums. I keep getting up off the canvas and then floored again and again. Gambling is such...

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Back to back losing weeks and from a position of profit just a fortnight ago to back into the doldrums. I keep getting up off the canvas and then floored again and again. Gambling is such an alluring mistress, she gives you a hint of what could be and then the second you start believing, she pulls the rug from under you and you’re lying on your back struggling like the turtle you are. I’ll once again shift from side to side until I can get back on my feet and try again. Ok, I’ll admit I took that turtle metaphor a little far, but I haven’t had my coffee this morning. I actually saved a heap this week thankfully because odds never recovered for TFA and Winabob. Sportpunter is going through a bit of a lull also. Just gotto keep placing those bets and trust in the hard work and analysis I did prior to signing up to these services.

Sportpunter first and NBL has fallen off a cliff after its amazing start. Pretty much back to break even now. Hoping for a very quick correction, as with very few bets a season, variance can really bite me in the arse if I’m unlucky. $6,000 lost this week. As the NFL season moves into week 11, the SP model has historically done well with the line bets from this point on in the season. It’s started well with a $1,175 profit at 14.7% ROI. The totals broke even. NHL lost $1,300 and the NBA H2H bets have also dropped off after an amazing first week. This week they lost $6,800 but the NBA totals recovered most of that with $5,750 profit. All up a loss of $7,150 from the SP service this week.

ClubGOWI had an absolutely shocking week, dropping $4,100, but again it should have been more, but odds never recovered. In his last email he once again offered a discount for a years service. I’ll be taking that up, as I have repeatedly said, it’s a service that is going to return me 2%-4% long term and I’ll follow any service that can do that. The added benefit is that I can also back the opposite when odds go out too far and this has proven to be a real benefit.

PCG lost $1,300 and Jason Kelly lost $325. Still looking for that elusive first big win for this service.

There wasn’t much soccer action this week, but there were still a lot of bets for TFA and Winabob. Well, there were a lot of advised bets, just not at odds I could get. TFA lost $400 and Winabob made a profit for the first time ever with $600 added to my bank. Mind you if I was able to get on even half of these bets I would be in very negative territory. A tiny $200 profit for FBI Combo picks was also helped by not getting odds. My little experiment continues and added $1,550 profit this week, but on the other hand, my personal bets lost $1,050. I believe the issue with TFA and Winabob is that they are very heavily slanted towards away bets, and TFA started when this bias was massive, so the results were very impressive the first few season, as these things tend to do, each season a slant comes into play and last season and for all of this season so far, it has been the home bets that keep winning. The question I have to ask myself is if the winning years will outweigh the losses from these losing years? In a bad season, I can expect to lose over $50,000. The upside is that if the aways start winning again, then the potential upside is well over $100,000 profit. So I need to hope the past year and a half bias towards home teams is going to change pretty soon. We will have to wait and see.

Onto much more positive news and the Dailyprofit service has now surpassed 100 very happy members. We have sorted out the structure for the SP section in regards to the American sports and are now happy to take anybody who thinks the service will be of benefit to them. We do things a little differently (READ:CORRECTLY) at Dailyprofit.

Odds recording has been a real problem with almost every tipster I have followed. I get it, it’s like when you are dating, you are trying to attract a partner (customer) and only want to show the best side of yourself. You put up that one great picture of you where the light catches you just right and you look that little bit like James Dean (Tom cruise, Brad Pitt, whoever). The issues arise when you actually have to show your true self and then your date (Customer) is none too impressed when they see the real you. At Dailyprofit we do the opposite, we show the god awful picture on our profile and then when someone goes on a date with us(joins the service), they are ecstatic that we are actually amazingly good looking, smart and very very good in the sack. How we do this is simple. We take 3 random members and they send me the odds they got for each and every tip. Some members get on straight away, some wait till just before the game, others just bet whenever they can. Some have heaps of bookies, others only have a few. We take these odds and record at the average price. Anyone who then puts any effort in at all, will handily beat the quoted prices. What this means is that the service will never look brilliant, if I can show a 2% ROI then I’ll be ecstatic, but once customers are in, they will happily enjoy a 5% or more better result.

So what has the result been? Well we started with 20 beta testers about 4 months ago, I have posted 4 times about the service on twitter since then. Through word of mouth alone we have grown 5x in the 2 months where I have opened up the service. I really am so pleased that I can not only show tipsters how it should be done, but also make my customers so happy with the results that they tell their friends. I’ll end this clearly one sided view of my service with the dailyprofit profit graph. Please note, this return is based on the VIP package (which is both the Value and SP service), but only Australians and New Zealanders can take advantage of the Value picks.

17novchart

Total Loss for the week was $11,645.44

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $2,638,686.93
Profit/Loss: -$30,084.69
POT: -1.14%
Bets Placed: 3890
Won: 1388
Lost: 1843
Half Payout: 34
Refunded: 625
Winning %: 43.0%
Total profit per day: $317,440.15 / 1602 = $198.15
Total Turnover: $16,981,430.30
Total ROI: 1.87%

NBL Totals $26,810.00 $(15,976.69) -59.6%
week profit/loss: -4850

NBL Line $70,737.00 $17,160.84 24.3%
week profit/loss: -1200

NFL Totals $74,498.00 $12,171.70 16.3%
week profit/loss: 31.99

NFL Line $8,011.00 $1,175.40 14.7%
week profit/loss: 1175.40

NHL Totals $56,984.00 $9,816.80 17.2%
week profit/loss: -1284.18

NBA Totals $107,751.00 $18,774.58 17.4%
week profit/loss: 5756.08

NBA H2H $68,592.00 $1,109.19 1.6%
week profit/loss: -6786.59

ClubGowi $323,803.00 $8,448.59 2.6%
week profit/loss: -3115

GOWI $10,951.00 $(3,360.00) -30.7%
week profit/loss: -1000

PCG $151,934.00 $(5,148.25) -3.4%
week profit/loss: -1284.54

Jason Kelly Golf $8,646.93 $(7,256.93) -83.9%
week profit/loss: -325

Betswot $8,313.00 $(6,558.00) -78.9%
week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $47,250.00 $6,422.50 13.6%
week profit/loss: 0

Football Value $20,000.00 $(205.00) -1.0%
week profit/loss: 0

TFA 21 $102,514.00 $(8,574.30) -8.4%
week profit/loss: -525

TFA 41 $105,300.00 $(11,886.00) -11.3%
week profit/loss: 645

6-21-31 $62,107.00 $685.72 1.1%
week profit/loss: 480

D1-D6 $31,500.00 $(90.00) -0.3%
week profit/loss: -1000

E1-E6 $18,740.00 $7,935.00 42.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Mike Lindley $26,500.00 $(3,800.00) -14.3%
week profit/loss: 735

WINABOBATOO $115,176.00 $(12,362.60) -10.7%
week profit/loss: -140.40

FBI combo $56,500.00 $1,807.00 3.2%
week profit/loss: 230

FBI Euro $32,000.00 $(5,965.00) -18.6%
week profit/loss: 0

Odds pushed out $14,500.00 $2,660.50 18.3%
week profit/loss: 1570

Personal $9,556.00 $(4,243.64) -44.4%
week profit/loss: -1040

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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Had a losing day or week? Here’s why you need to change your perspective from short to long term. http://www.daily25.com/losing-day-week-heres-need-change-perspective-short-long-term/ http://www.daily25.com/losing-day-week-heres-need-change-perspective-short-long-term/#comments Tue, 11 Nov 2014 20:23:47 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2170 f you have bet for any period of time then you have had one of those days, or weeks or even months. You know the one. Where everything seems to lose and you end up...

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If you have bet for any period of time then you have had one of those days, or weeks or even months. You know the one. Where everything seems to lose and you end up depressed and ready to throw something at the TV screen.

The problem is, no matter how good you are, there will be times when you lose, actually, the losing days will far outweigh the winning ones. So what do you do? how do you deal with it when the inevitable losing run happens?

I think being able to deal with losses is one of the pillars of making long term profit with betting. Without this skill you end up chasing losses, betting too much, placing silly bets and losing your entire balance. That doesn’t even take into account the mental toll on you and your loved ones. I see it all too often from readers who email me after they have had a losing run and blame the tipster and then go off and blow the rest of their bank on one big bet to get back to even.

Let’s look at an example from last month. I had just lost $10,000 overnight from the midweek soccer bets and was feeling like shit. As our brains are not programmed to think long term, instantly I started feeling a little depressed. Losing $10,000 while you are sleeping is not fun. Linda Evangelista famously said “I don’t wake up for less than $10,000 a day.”, it seems my motto was “I don’t wake up unless I’ve lost $10,000 overnight.”. I could have dwelled on this loss for days or weeks until I had made that money back. Instead I simply changed my perspective from short term to long term. How did I do that? I simply created the following charts.

2days

2 days worth of bets. The world is ending, I’m going to lose all my money, my house, my friends and live in a sack.

The above graph shows my loss after 2 days, but now lets go back 7 days and we see that the $10,000 loss came after a gain of the same amount just a day before. At the end of the week I really hadn’t made or lost any money. But because I was thinking short term, on the 19th of October I was so happy and then on the 20th I was depressed. From much research into loss aversion, we also know that a loss is taken 3 times worse then the same gain. So lets say I was 1 point happy on the 19th and then -2 points depressed the very next day, yet I had not made a cent either way.

1week

1 weeks worth of bets. Ahh that wasn’t so bad, I just broke even.

We can then take things even further and look back over the past year. This graph really perked me up. See that tiny little squiggle at the end of the graph? That’s what was making me feel depressed. It was a tiny, insignificant blip on my graph yet it dictated how I felt for the rest of the day. It would have impacted my general well being as well as my interactions with everyone I came into contact with. Looking at it this way, I feel slightly stupid that I was not smart enough to realise that it wasn’t the end of the world, but a tiny little blip in the big picture.

1year

1 years worth of bets. Wow, I made that much in a year? Are you kidding me? That’s freaking amazeballs.

While we are at it, why not go back even further. This gave me an even longer term perspective and showed me that I had been through much worse and always made a recovery. The $10,000 loss didn’t even register on this graph.

2years

2 years worth of bets. Double WOW. 2 years of pretty steady profit. Sure there were some lean times, but overall it looks amazing.

I finally took the longest possible view. I created a graph from my very first bet to the one I had placed that very day. What a beauty it is. This graph was printed out and hung on my wall with a big “THINK LONG TERM” written below it. How stupid of me to worry about a losing day, week, month or god forbid even year.

alltime

My entire betting career. BOOYAH, I’ve made that much. Why the hell did I worry about 1 days results. I’m off to spend some of my spoils and enjoy my life.

Now I am not saying not to worry about your results. That would be silly. You need to keep an eye on your overall success or failure. But you can only control certain things with your betting. We can control which tipsters we follow, the size of our banks, getting the best odds, good record keeping and so on. We can not control the results of any one event. So why worry about it? As long as we take care of the things we can control and have made the right decisions, then everything else will take care of itself (over the long term). I would suggest looking at your graph every 250-500 bets to see the general direction you are going in. If it is downwards then you need to look into what isn’t working and remedy it. If you don’t even have the data to create a graph, then you’re an idiot and I can’t help you.

Bookmark this post, and the next time you have a shocking day or week just come back here and read this again. I know I will.

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Nov 5th – Nov 11th -$22,577.59 http://www.daily25.com/nov-5th-nov-11th-22577-59/ http://www.daily25.com/nov-5th-nov-11th-22577-59/#comments Tue, 11 Nov 2014 00:24:17 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2194 ell, easy come easy go it seems. If this loss had come last week it would have been devastating. It’s funny how we perceive losses. I have written an article that will be posted tomorrow...

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Well, easy come easy go it seems. If this loss had come last week it would have been devastating. It’s funny how we perceive losses. I have written an article that will be posted tomorrow that has helped me deal with these horrendous weeks. Hopefully it might help you also, but I guess only if you have been doing this for a while and have made a profit (which is very few). The exact opposite to last week and from a position of hope, I now just feel empty again. Why I try and project forward when I have no control over the outcome is beyond me. As long as I continue to do the things I can control (getting best odds, recording everything, so on), then the results will look after themselves as they have done for the past 4 and a half years.

Sportpunter had an absolute shocker of a week. NBL by far the worst of a bad bunch, losing $14,000. The same thing happened in week 1 of the season and that was followed by weeks of great wins, hopefully I see a repeat. The NFL Totals made $1,700 and the NHL Totals lost $1,500. After a cracking first week in the NBA, it came back to earth with a $3,300 loss. On the rare occasions SP doesn’t perform well, the rest of the tipsters have a decent week. Apart from 1 or 2, that didn’t happen.

Gowi did well with $4,100 profit. Still waiting on my payout in the Golf which will be a very welcome addition. The other Golf tipsters lost $500 combined. PCG lost $100.

Onto the Football tipsters and I’m once again questioning why I decided to continue with TFA, another poor week with a $5,150 loss and that brings the season to well over $11,000 in the red. The only shining light is the Euro picks. At $500 stakes, it will only take a few good weeks to get that to break even, but the fact I’ll be cheering at break even is not a good sign. The last 2 seasons have been very different from the first one. I can’t remember the Winabob service having a winning week this year. A $400 loss this week brings his season loss to over $17,000. The shining light is Football Elite with back to back good weeks. This week $4,400 was added to the pot and I now sit on $6,400 profit. Once that hits $10,000 profit, then £100 will need to be paid. Football Value lost $1,000 and Football Investor lost $4,150 over the combo and Euro bets.

My little experiment with betting the opposite side when the odds move more then 20% continues to do well, with another $500 profit this week. Still early days and only 16 bets in totals, but I can see a time where I join popular services that make prices crash just so I can bet against them. My own personal picks had an absolute disaster week losing $3,300.

I was really hoping for this to be a +20k week and to be in a good position moving into the final month of the year, but that isn’t the case. Nothing I can do about it but continue on. No tipsters have reached the banks I set up for them, so right now there is no real concern. The roller-coaster continues on unabated and I’ll just cling on for dear life and hope that cliff never appears. Tune in tomorrow for a pretty decent article.

Total Loss for the week was $22,577.59

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $2,470,789.93
Profit/Loss: -$18,439.25
POT: -0.75%
Bets Placed: 3634
Won: 1315
Lost: 1739
Half Payout: 34
Refunded: 546
Winning %: 43.1%
Total profit per day: $329,085.59 / 1595 = $206.32
Total Turnover: $16,813,533.30
Total ROI: 1.96%

NBL Totals $21,960.00 $(11,126.69) -50.7%
week profit/loss: -3424.05

NBL Line $66,687.00 $18,360.84 27.5%
week profit/loss: -10452

NFL Totals $69,108.00 $12,139.71 17.6%
week profit/loss: 1733.68

NHL Totals $45,696.00 $11,100.98 24.3%
week profit/loss: -1533.43

NBA Totals $76,133.00 $13,018.50 17.1%
week profit/loss: 179.12

NBA H2H $50,465.00 $7,894.78 15.6%
week profit/loss: -3459.04

ClubGowi $309,053.00 $11,563.59 3.7%
week profit/loss: 4642.13

GOWI $9,451.00 $(2,360.00) -25.0%
week profit/loss: -519

PCG $143,467.00 $(3,863.71) -2.7%
week profit/loss: -128.50

Jason Kelly Golf $8,321.93 $(6,931.93) -83.3%
week profit/loss: -225

Betswot $8,313.00 $(6,558.00) -78.9%
week profit/loss: -300

FB Elite $47,250.00 $6,422.50 13.6%
week profit/loss: 4430

Football Value $20,000.00 $(205.00) -1.0%
week profit/loss: -1000

TFA 21 $91,109.00 $(8,049.30) -8.8%
week profit/loss: -2500

TFA 41 $93,800.00 $(12,531.00) -13.4%
week profit/loss: -1945

6-21-31 $52,707.00 $205.72 0.4%
week profit/loss: -2000

D1-D6 $29,500.00 $910.00 3.1%
week profit/loss: -70

E1-E6 $18,740.00 $7,935.00 42.3%
week profit/loss: 1350

Mike Lindley $23,000.00 $(4,535.00) -19.7%
week profit/loss: -500

WINABOBATOO $105,000.00 $(12,503.00) -11.9%
week profit/loss: 125

FBI combo $52,500.00 $1,577.00 3.0%
week profit/loss: 820

FBI Euro $32,000.00 $(5,965.00) -18.6%
week profit/loss: -4970

Odds pushed out $8,000.00 $1,090.50 13.6%
week profit/loss: 490.50

Personal $8,516.00 $(3,203.64) -37.6%
week profit/loss: -3322

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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Oct 29th – Nov 4th +$37,862.28 http://www.daily25.com/oct-29th-nov-4th-30000/ http://www.daily25.com/oct-29th-nov-4th-30000/#comments Tue, 04 Nov 2014 10:12:49 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2153 ‘ve had some crazy weeks before, but this surely beats them all. We had a massive NBA head to head win, the biggest comeback I have ever seen in any sport (to cover a line...

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I‘ve had some crazy weeks before, but this surely beats them all. We had a massive NBA head to head win, the biggest comeback I have ever seen in any sport (to cover a line bet), my biggest fuck up to date, an amazing start for a Sportpunter model and the Melbourne Cup. With all of that, I also ended the week at my highest ever profit level since inception over four and a half years ago. Just the other week I was sitting on -$56,000 and now I am in profit.

Let’s start with Sportpunter. The NBA season started last week and to say his first week was fantastic would be an understatement. On just the second day of the new season I had a $1,210 bet on the Knicks over Cleveland which paid $8.80. I also had $1,100 on Oklahoma over the Clippers for a further $8,000 profit which just missed.

NBAwiner

After the 2nd day I felt uncomfortable betting so much on such long shots and increased my Kelly staking to make the bets a little smaller. They are still big and I will have some massive swings over the season, but they are more in line with my other bets. This first week of NBA bought in $24,000 profit. We can add in $1,100 for NFL, $4,100 for NHL and $19,600 for NBL. If we combine them all, Sportpunter models made me a massive $48,800 in just 1 week. That just blows my mind.

One of the NBL wins included what must be one of the biggest comebacks ever. I had a large bet on the Taipans to win by 10.5. Nearing the end of the 3rd Quarter I checked the live score and saw them down by 15. Knowing they would need to outscore the Kings by 26 in the last (more points then they had even scored in any one quarter) I put this down as a loss in my spreadsheet. This would have stayed a loss as I would never have checked the final score. Luckily Jonno sent me a message asking if I was watching the game. I checked and was blown away by the score line. It also helped that the kings missd 5 three point attempts in the last minute and a half. The other great thing was that Sportpunter clients pushed out the line on the kings to 12.5 and I know many people on twitter had got on this line, so the bookies had to pay out both sides.

nbl

 

But now lets move onto what is becoming an all too common and expensive habit for me. MISTAKES. This one cost me $13,700 and if not for my stupidity I would have made over $50,000 in a week for the first time ever. I had prepared the NBL spreadsheet in advance as I always do, but for some weird reason, I had put the teams in the wrong way. So when I uploaded the numbers, I had a team as a 70% chance when they were really a 30% chance. This happened on two games and as I always try and place bets as fast as possible, I did not check to see if these were the correct bets. I then sent Jonno a message saying “wow, some big bets tonight”. When he sent back “Sarcasm??”, I knew I had done something wrong. The actual bets were tiny bets on the other sides. There was no chance for me to take the other side without taking a huge loss so I let them ride. I don’t think any mistake I have let ride has ever won for me and both these games did not even get close to covering. I can blame lack of sleep, and being a new dad, but really, it was just plain stupidity from me and the need to get on these bets before the lines and odds are smashed. I might not make the same mistake again but I’m positive I’ll make more in the future. I just hope these even out over time.

ClubGOWI lost $1,800 this week but at the end of this month there will be a $6,000 payout to add to his tally. I had 3 people email me this week and say they were stopping their subscription and they all had very valid points. Most had profits in the 1-3% range and that also matches my returns, but when huge ROI’s are shown on the site then that just pisses these guys off. I don’t blame them for leaving, but I’ll be sticking it out. I know the maximum I can hope for with this service is about 5% and more likely I will get around 2%. But I have not found many other tipsters where I am pretty confident that I can get 2% long term, and that’s all I really hope for from any service.

Diamond Edge only advises MLB and the season has come to an end. I will review this in the coming weeks when I have some time. It’s final week netted $650 profit. Pro Computer Gambler lost $300 this week. The Golf tipsters lost a combined $1,250.

Still finding it difficult to get within 5-7% of a heap of bets on the soccer, and also finding it very difficult not to bet when the odds go out over that amount as well. I missed some high priced winners this week as they just never rebounded to the official odds. From the bets I did manage to place, Football Elite made $5,600, Football Value made $1,200, TFA lost $1,150, Winabob lost $1,900 and finally, Football Investor made $350. My Personal bets returned $1,100 and as mentioned earlier, my mistakes cost me a whopping $13,700.

Today’s post is so late as I was betting on the Melbourne Cup festival today. Really sad to see the favorite (Admire Rakti’s) die after the race and also Araldo being put down after breaking his leg returning to the stables. We have also had a few deaths of riders in the past month. It’s really a very dangerous job for both Jockeys and horses and we really don’t pay them enough respect. I’m going to try and be more conscious of the hard work all our sporting stars put in on the field or track.

A very up and down week for me and I am hoping for a similar profit this week to move into some real profit for the first time in year 5. It’s amazing how each years profit and loss graph seems to mimic each other. I’m hoping for a mirror image of last year and from now until July the graph keeps climbing to stupidly high numbers. A lot more stress free Steve signing off for this week.

Total Profit for the week was $37,862.28

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $2,297,145.93
Profit/Loss: $4,138.34
POT: 0.18%
Bets Placed: 3405
Won: 1238
Lost: 1612
Half Payout: 33
Refunded: 522
Winning %: 43.4%
Total profit per day: $351,663.18 / 1588 = $221.45
Total Turnover: $16,639,889.30
Total ROI: 2.11%

NBL Totals $16,451.00 $(7,702.64) -46.8%
week profit/loss: 3072.04

NBL Line $56,235.00 $28,812.84 51.2%
week profit/loss: 16,552.71

NFL Totals $63,504.00 $10,406.03 16.4%
week profit/loss: 1070.07

NHL Totals $33,124.00 $12,634.41 38.1%
week profit/loss: 4095.35

NBA Totals $41,672.00 $12,839.38 30.8%
week profit/loss: 12,839.38

NBA H2H $28,503.00 $11,353.82 39.8%
week profit/loss: 11,353.82

ClubGowi $289,663.00 $6,921.46 2.4%
week profit/loss: -1813.50

GOWI $8,932.00 $(1,841.00) -20.6%
week profit/loss: 0

Diamond Edge $150,500.00 $2,577.00 1.7%
week profit/loss: 655

PCG $136,467.00 $(3,735.21) -2.7%
week profit/loss: -309.50

Jason Kelly Golf $8,096.93 $(6,706.93) -82.8%
week profit/loss: -700

Betswot $8,013.00 $(6,258.00) -78.1%
week profit/loss: -550

FB Elite $39,250.00 $1,992.50 5.1%
week profit/loss: 5680

Football Value $19,000.00 $795.00 4.2%
week profit/loss: 1230

TFA 21 $87,609.00 $(5,549.30) -6.3%
week profit/loss: 65

TFA 41 $86,800.00 $(10,586.00) -12.2%
week profit/loss: -1540

6-21-31 $50,207.00 $2,205.72 4.4%
week profit/loss: 830

D1-D6 $26,000.00 $980.00 3.8%
week profit/loss: -1500

E1-E6 $13,240.00 $6,585.00 49.7%
week profit/loss: 980

Mike Lindley $22,500.00 $(4,035.00) -17.9%
week profit/loss: -500

WINABOBATOO $100,500.00 $(12,628.00) -12.6%
week profit/loss: -1403

FBI combo $48,500.00 $757.00 1.6%
week profit/loss:-3000

FBI Euro $22,000.00 $(995.00) -4.5%
week profit/loss: 3350

Odds pushed out $6,500.00 $600.00 9.2%
week profit/loss: -35

Personal $4,366.00 $118.36 2.7%
week profit/loss: 1104.91

Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -13735

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Oct 22nd – Oct 28th +$6,221.14 http://www.daily25.com/oct-22nd-oct-28th-5000/ http://www.daily25.com/oct-22nd-oct-28th-5000/#comments Tue, 28 Oct 2014 01:34:59 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2142 e had what is being termed black Saturday with the Soccer services this weekend. With well over $100,000 worth of bets it was going to be a make or break night, and with SP doing...

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We had what is being termed black Saturday with the Soccer services this weekend. With well over $100,000 worth of bets it was going to be a make or break night, and with SP doing its usual awesome job during the week and then an early soccer win, I was sitting on -$30,000 for the season and was hoping the night panned out well and I would be back on my way towards parity. Nothings ever that simple with betting and after tallying up the results at 3am in the morning, I was now sitting at my biggest loss ever in any season. I was out to -$56,000 for the year and things were looking pretty grim. Two days later and I actually made a decent profit for the week. I’m sure you have all gone through the same thing many times. There is no point in ever trying to work out where you will be short term, it’s just impossible, I have an article coming tomorrow which should hopefully help you deal with these weekly or monthly losses a little better, I’m glad I started working on it last week, as it sure helped me on Sunday morning. Football betting really has to start earning it’s keep, this season will be pivitol, if I am still at a loss after 5 years then I will become very selective in which services I choose. Most will get the cut and I will be betting much less and more for the enjoyment then profit. I’m hoping it’s a decision I don’t have to make.

Ahh, Sportpunter. Where would I be without you. I know where, in a ditch somewhere outside a TAB begging for a few bucks to put on a multi. $12,600 profit over all SP models this week. NBL Totals has sucked badly, but that’s more then made up for with the Line bets. Totals lost $5,100 but Line bets made $11,200. Already being limited by the likes of Beteasy and I’m having to take much worse odds and lines just to get matched. The NHL totals continues to shine, but I’m sure like last season it will go in waves. Months of amazing profit, followed by a month of losses. I’m just glad it started with the profit part. $6,500 this week. This week also sees the start of the NBA, looking forward to another great first half of the season.

ClubGowi lost $1,200, Diamond edge lost $500, but PCG came back with $4,600 profit. I really hope the service turns around. Hopefully the NFL season and new NBA season change that. Jason Kelly Golf also lost $275.

Onto the Soccer. In total I lost $8,800. The loss was well over $25,000 until Sunday night. Once again there was more talk on Twitter on the best way to record odds. There were multiple bets on Exeter this week and I never even got close to get the odds on any service. Winabobatoo recorded the win at a laughable $3.50, Football Investor recorded at $3.08 and The Football Analyst had $3.10. The fact that Winabobatoo routinely records at odds 15% better and still makes about the same profit at the end of the year says a lot for the other 2 guys. Sadly the best I saw (remember I wake up at least a few hours after release), was $2.86. 10% worse odds then the lowest recorded ones. This win would have added well over $6,000 profit, but I stick to my rules and if I can’t get within 6-7% then I don’t bet. Many times this season I’ve bet a team for TFA or FBI, but not backed the same team for Winabob, as I am lucky to bet 50% of the bets he recommends. It’s one service I am 100% sure I would never subscribe to again. If you have every UK book open and bet under $50 and can bet the second the tips come out, then you might be able to match the odds. I have to commend TFA and FBI for how fair they are in comparison, but still feel a lot more can be down, and it seems Stewboss (FBI) feels the same. I’d take a service breaking even at Pinnacle closing lines over one showing 20% ROI at bullshit odds. I also believe the people who pay for tips are getting smarter and the first service to do this would easily fill up his yearly subscription limit.

Football Elite lost $3,500, Football Value made $1,400, TFA made $900, Winabob lost $3,200, and Football Investor lost $4,400. My own person picks made $250.

In the end, even after one of the worst Saturdays ever, I managed to make a profit this week. Really stoked with that result. Also with Horse betting making a recovery, October is shaping up to be a good month. Maybe the comeback is starting early this season.

Total Profit for the week was $6,221.14

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $2,072,369.93
Profit/Loss: -$33,723.94
POT: -1.63%
Bets Placed: 3137
Won: 1135
Lost: 1494
Half Payout: 31
Refunded: 477
Winning %: 43.2%
Total profit per day: $313,800.90 / 1581 = $198.48
Total Turnover: $16,415,113.30
Total ROI: 1.91%

NBL Totals $13,053.00 $(10,774.68) -82.5%
week profit/loss: -5076.68

NBL Line $37,425.00 $12,260.13 32.8%
week profit/loss: 11,184.23

SP MLB $255,254.00 $9,449.78 3.7%
week profit/loss: 64.35

NFL Totals $59,102.00 $9,335.96 15.8%
week profit/loss: -35.76

NHL Totals $25,029.00 $8,539.06 34.1%
week profit/loss: 6505.20

ClubGowi $268,663.00 $8,734.96 3.3%
week profit/loss: 1298

GOWI $8,932.00 $(1,841.00) -20.6%
week profit/loss: -2500

Diamond Edge $150,000.00 $1,922.00 1.3%
week profit/loss: -500

PCG $132,217.00 $(3,425.71) -2.6%
week profit/loss: 4583.50

Jason Kelly Golf $7,466.93 $(6,076.93) -81.4%
week profit/loss: -275

Betswot $7,463.00 $(5,708.00) -76.5%
week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $25,250.00 $(3,687.50) -14.6%
week profit/loss: -3515

Football Value $18,000.00 $(435.00) -2.4%
week profit/loss: 1380

TFA 21 $78,109.00 $(5,614.30) -7.2%
week profit/loss: -668.30

TFA 41 $78,100.00 $(9,046.00) -11.6%
week profit/loss: -6042.50

6-21-31 $45,207.00 $1,375.72 3.0%
week profit/loss: 557.50

D1-D6 $24,500.00 $2,480.00 10.1%
week profit/loss: 2315

E1-E6 $6,000.00 $5,605.00 93.4%
week profit/loss: 4775

Mike Lindley $21,500.00 $(3,535.00) -16.4%
week profit/loss: -590

WINABOBATOO $91,000.00 $(11,225.00) -12.3%
week profit/loss: -2591

FBI combo $42,500.00 $3,757.00 8.8%
week profit/loss:-3075

FBI Euro $10,000.00 $(4,345.00) -43.5%
week profit/loss:-1345

Odds pushed out $5,500.00 $635.00 11.5%
week profit/loss: 70

Personal $3,075.00 $(986.55) -32.1%
week profit/loss: 253.45

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Tom’s $25 million Melbourne Cup offer: Worst odds ever http://www.daily25.com/toms-25-million-melbourne-cup-offer-worst-odds-ever/ http://www.daily25.com/toms-25-million-melbourne-cup-offer-worst-odds-ever/#comments Tue, 21 Oct 2014 23:57:39 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2117 y now you have been bombarded by yet another tom waterhouse marketing blitz. This time it’s his “amazing” offer for the Melbourne Cup. Just pay $10, pick the first 10 horses in the exact finishing...

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By now you have been bombarded by yet another tom waterhouse marketing blitz. This time it’s his “amazing” offer for the Melbourne Cup. Just pay $10, pick the first 10 horses in the exact finishing order and $25 million dollars is yours. How he manages to get through the ads without bursting into a Dr Evil laugh is beyond me. You will have also noticed that tom has moved from the old slogan of “What punters want” to “This is betting now” or something stupid along those lines. But he seems to really be going full force with the now bit, meaning that betting now means only allowing mug punters to bet and not even complying with rules that almost all other bookmakers in the country have (NSW racing min bet rules). The William Hill group have made a huge error letting tom lead their business in Australia. Their reputation will be a shambles by the end of his reign and I doubt they will be able to repair the damage he has done.

tom25milnongambleI asked on twitter if anybody wanted to break down the numbers on this offer for me. Lenny and Matt obliged and sent me both very detailed articles. I have smushed them together to come up with the following post.

The offer

Select the first 10 runners across the line in order for a chance to win up to $25 million. $10 per entry and a maximum of 10 entries per person.

This really works out at odds of $2.5 million per dollar bet. By making each bet cost $10, he can make the final prize seem much bigger. Also I’m amused that he will only allow a maximum of 10 bets, this offer is so impossible that he is pocketing ~100% on every bet, again this is in place to make it seem like the offer is amazing. Let’s look at the real numbers.

The Maths

Lenny: There are a few ways to look at this mathematically – the easiest being to work out the odds if you were to select your top 10 runners in a random draw. Remembering that the selections need to be in order, and assuming we avoid the almost traditional Cup day scratchings, you have a 1 in 24 chance of selecting the winner.  Then a 1 in 23 chance of selecting 2nd (given the same horse can’t finish 1st and 2nd) and so forth – down to a 1 in 15 chance of selecting 10th.

The odds of this – 24 x 23 x 22 etc all the way down to x 15 – are one in 7,117,005,772,800. Or 1 in 7 TRILLION. To put that into some level of perspective: if every single human being alive today in the entire world had 1000 unique guesses, there’d still be no guarantee Tom would have to pay out his $25 million.

But of course, not every horse has an equal chance, so we’ll use a somewhat more complex method to come up with what is close to the correct probability. It’s a little convoluted, sure, but we’ll use last year’s Melbourne Cup odds (normalised to 100%, for accuracy) to work out the approximate chances of the favoured top 10 – i.e. the top 10 favoured horses, in order – actually occurring, based on the odds (sourced from last year’s Sportsbet.com.au sweep).

Fiorente was $7 in a ~124% market; this equates to an 11.445% chance. If you take Fiorente out and re-adjust the odds to again 100%, and assume the market that left is a rough estimate of running 2nd, it shows Mount Athos as an 11.309% chance of running 2nd. You can take Mount Athos out to get 3rd’s percentages etc etc, all the way down to the chance of Seville running 10th being 11.241%.

I’ve run the numbers on this and when you combine all the percentage chances of this top 10 happening in the favoured order – so the odds of any other order are longer – then it is a 1 in 6,905,774,345 chance. That’s one in 6.9 BILLION. Pretty big unders to accept $25 million for a $10 investment with those odds.

Steve: There are always numerous ways to look at a maths problem and Matt takes a different approach. Instead of taking last years top 10, he uses this years top 10 prices from Betfair.

Matt: Let’s assume there are 24 starters. I have taken prices from Betfair for the first 24 runners in market order (prices recorded on Saturday night) and have scaled the market to 100%. This is what it looks like.

  1. Admire Ratki – $5.27 = 18.98%
  2. Protectionist – $7.94 = 12.60%
  3. Lucia Valentina – $8.86 = 11.29%
  4. Fawlkner – $14.18 = 7.05%
  5. Mutual Regard – $20.37 = 4.91%
  6. Who Shot Thebarman – $21.23 = 4.71%
  7. Junoob – $23.92 = 4.18%
  8. Red Cadaux – $26.60 = 3.76%
  9. Cavalry Man – $26.60 = 3.76%
  10. Araldo – $31.95 = 3.13%
  11. Willing Foe – $31.95 = 3.13%
  12. Contributor – $48.54 = 2.06%
  13. Van Percy – $48.54 = 2.06%
  14. Signoff – $48.54 = 2.06%
  15. Brambles – $48.54 = 2.06%
  16. Amralah – $48.54 = 2.06%
  17. Ambivalent – $57.47 = 1.74%
  18. Silent Acheiver – $57.47 = 1.74%
  19. Gatewood – $62.11 = 1.61%
  20. Dandino – $62.11 = 1.61%
  21. Royal Diamond – $62.11 = 1.61%
  22. Opinion – $66.23 = 1.51%
  23. Sertorius – $79.37 = 1.26%
  24. Green Moon – $98.04 = 1.02%

To make this easy, I will be showing the mathematics for the top 10 favourites to finish in that order. Admire Ratki is priced at $5.27 after his impressive Caulfield Cup victory yesterday so he is a 1 in 5.27 or an 18.98% chance to finish first. Easy. Now, how do we work out what Protectionist’s chances of running 2nd and beating the rest of the field are? It’s actually not that difficult. We just need to determine what price Protectionist would be if Admire Ratki wasn’t in the field (as he doesn’t need to beat Admire Ratki). This is determined the same way as a “Without Favourite” market or if Admire Ratki was scratched and a deduction was applied. As the market above is at 100% we can deduct 18.98% from Protectionist’s price of $7.94 which comes to $6.43. We can now say Protectionist would be paying $6.43 to beat the remaining 22 runners.

We do the same thing with Lucia Valentina but deduct Admire Ratki’s 18.98% and Protectionist’s 12.6% from her price of $8.86 bringing it into $6.06. Lucia Valentina is paying $6.06 to beat home the remaining 21 runners.

If we wanted to calculate the chance of the 3 favourites running 1st, 2nd and 3rd in marker order we would multiply $5.27 (Admire Ratki’s winning odds) by $6.43 (Protectionist’s odds of beating the other 22 runners) and by $6.06 (Lucia Valentina’s odds of beating the remaining 21 runners) showing us the trifecta is a $205.35 chance based on the above odds.

I have done the same calculations all the way down to 10th favourite Araldo and this is what it looks like –

18.98% ($5.27) x 15.55% ($6.43) x 16.50% ($6.06) x 12.35% ($8.10) x 9.80% ($10.20) x 10.44% ($9.58) x 10.33% ($9.68) x 10.25% ($9.76) x 11.42% ($8.76) x 10.50% ($9.52)

=

a 1 in 1,280,593,053 chance (that’s a one in one billion two hundred and eighty million five hundred and ninety three thousand and fifty three chance) of the top 10 favorites running in market order in the 2014 Melbourne Cup.

Steve: Matts odds of 1.2 billion is simply the odds of the top 10 finishing in their rated order. I would say we can take Lenny’s numbers from last years results and Matt’s from this years odds and come up with a middling figure of around a 1 in 4 Billion chance.

Conclusion

This offer is a joke and while a bit of fun for the mug punter, it is probably the biggest ripoff in terms of odds I have ever seen. tom could have offered $100 million as the prize money or even $1 billion and it would still be worthless. The funny thing is, even with the odds stacked so heavily in his favour, he has still insured himself against any loss. He has paid an insurance company a small amount (I would guess no more then $50k) and if someone does get lucky then the insurance company will pay out the $25 million. They would spend even more on the marketing of the offer and it will result in many signups of mug punters. So once again a smart marketing move, but again just showing how he thinks of the betting public (as idiots).

The odds of winning OZ lotto are 1 in 45 million and the odds of winning Powerball are 1 in 76 million. By charging $10 per pick, the odds of winning tom’s offer is 1 in 40 Billion. When numbers get this big, people’s eyes glaze over. Let’s put it simply. If tom was a decent guy (bahaha) and wanted to simply break even on this offer, he would need to offer a prize pool of $40 billion dollars, and if you won it you would become the 8th richest person in the world.

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Oct 15th – Oct 21st +$8,785.59 http://www.daily25.com/oct-15th-oct-21st-8000/ http://www.daily25.com/oct-15th-oct-21st-8000/#comments Mon, 20 Oct 2014 21:00:09 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2112 hat was another big week on the blog. More records broken as we hit 2,000 unique visitors in a day. Great to see so many people are actually reading stuff that will hopefully help with...

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That was another big week on the blog. More records broken as we hit 2,000 unique visitors in a day. Great to see so many people are actually reading stuff that will hopefully help with their betting. Tomorrow we will have another article about the maths behind Tom Waterhouses offer for the Melbourne cup.  Two readers took the time to explain the maths behind it, so I will try and merge both documents they sent me into one super blog post. I thought by asking others to write for the blog that it would give me back some time, I guess not.

Last week I said I would never miss another golf bet, umm yeah, well…. new dad and all. I managed to get most of them inplay before they teed off. They all lost. I didn’t think having Ollie home was that much of a disturbance or that my sleep patterns had been affected. Once again I was wrong. On Saturday nights, about 2 hours before the games I see if there are any bets in the correct odds range and bet them, then I usually come back 15 minutes before the games start and go through the remaining games to see if the odds have improved. This Saturday after placing the initial bets, I sat down and watched the early game and woke up an hour after all games had finished, luckily most games hadn’t come in and would never have been a bet and the ones that did lost. So I saved a little. A Saturday afternoon nap will be something that will be added to my routine. I also noticed a lot less odds movement when Mike (Winabobatoo) released this week. I’m guessing it’s because a few members have left after a poor start and the fact that UK members can no longer bet at Pinnacle, whatever the reason, it is a good sign. Now for the service to start winning.

This week was a return to form for Sportpunter. NBL made $6,500, NFL $4,900 and NHL $1,800. Even in the AFL off season, I’m relying on SP to keep me afloat. That means everything else lost.

Well not ClubGowi, with $2,900 profit. I also enjoyed the in play notes on the Japanese games. As I was at the computer I could take advantage of them and I did stake pretty low, but they did seem pretty good. Diamond Edge had the 1 bet for a $450 profit, but PCG continues to keep losing with a further $1,500 lost this week. Once I get the time I will be interviewing Tom to see what has gone wrong this season. As mentioned earlier, the Golf lost $800.

Soccer had it’s ups and downs also, mostly downs. But take into account that I missed some bets due to lack of sleep. So these figures are only mine. The official results will be different. Football Elite lost $1,650. Football Value lost $500. TFA made $1,600 while Football Investor Combo and Euro lost $3,900. Winabobatoo lost $600. I have also started my own personal bets and these lost $1,240 this week and I also bet on any odds that go out over 20%, this week they made $500.

Very happy with that result, juggling parenthood and betting, and the blog and the service and dealing with hundreds of emails and everything else that comes with life is quite exhausting at times. Since starting the Horse racing and having to be sat in front of a computer at least 3 days a week, I have started to pile on the flab. I’ll be making some adjustments to make sure that doesn’t continue to happen. I’m sure that’s an upcoming post and you will all get to see some photos of me fat.. you guys are so lucky. Until tomorrow..

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Profit for the week was $8,785.59

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $1,875,190.93
Profit/Loss: -$39,945.08
POT: -2.13%
Bets Placed: 2840
Won: 1045
Lost: 1347
Half Payout: 26
Refunded: 422
Winning %: 43.7%
Total profit per day: $307,579.76 / 1574 = $195.41
Total Turnover: $16,217,934.30
Total ROI: 1.90%

NBL Totals $6,136.00 $(5,698.00) -92.9%
week profit/loss: -2081

NBL Line $23,024.00 $1,075.90 4.7%
week profit/loss: 8538.90

SP MLB $252,327.00 $9,385.43 3.7%
week profit/loss: 0

NFL Totals $55,024.00 $9,371.72 17.0%
week profit/loss: 4863.89

NHL Totals $12,789.00 $2,033.86 15.9%
week profit/loss: 1785.66

ClubGowi $244,013.00 $7,436.96 3.0%
week profit/loss: 2511

GOWI $5,182.00 $659.00 12.7%
week profit/loss: 390

Diamond Edge $149,500.00 $2,422.00 1.6%
week profit/loss: 454.50

PCG $127,717.00 $(8,009.21) -6.3%
week profit/loss: -1523

Jason Kelly Golf $7,191.93 $(5,801.93) -80.7%
week profit/loss: -425.93

Betswot $7,463.00 $(5,708.00) -76.5%
week profit/loss: -350

FB Elite $14,500.00 $(172.50) -1.2%
week profit/loss: -1640

Football Value $14,000.00 $(1,815.00) -13.0%
week profit/loss: -490

TFA 21 $56,981.00 $(4,946.00) -8.7%
week profit/loss: -346

TFA 41 $59,600.00 $(3,003.50) -5.0%
week profit/loss: 915

6-21-31 $32,707.00 $818.22 2.5%
week profit/loss: 1467.72

D1-D6 $18,000.00 $165.00 0.9%
week profit/loss: 1080

E1-E6 $3,000.00 $830.00 27.7%
week profit/loss: -1500

Mike Lindley $15,500.00 $(2,945.00) -19.0%
week profit/loss: -1000

WINABOBATOO $71,000.00 $(8,634.00) -12.2%
week profit/loss: 374

FBI combo $30,500.00 $6,832.00 22.4%
week profit/loss:-870

FBI Euro $3,000.00 $(3,000.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss:-3000

Odds pushed out $4,500.00 $565.00 12.6%
week profit/loss: 555

Personal $1,240.00 $(1,240.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -1240

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Trail Files/Horse Racing Genius Update. http://www.daily25.com/trail-fileshorse-racing-genius-update/ http://www.daily25.com/trail-fileshorse-racing-genius-update/#comments Thu, 16 Oct 2014 05:03:12 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2084 Yesterdays post created a bit of a stir. Most complaints against tipster services are buried deep in forums very few people read, or if posted on the tipsters facebook page or website then they are...

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Yesterdays post created a bit of a stir. Most complaints against tipster services are buried deep in forums very few people read, or if posted on the tipsters facebook page or website then they are usually deleted. I’ve built up this site over the past 4 and a bit years, at the start no one came because I was just one more moron who thought they could make money gambling. They were right, I was just like the hundreds of other blogs that started up with stars in their eyes thinking this path was the road to riches. Now statistically one out of those many hundreds would likely actually make money. Just like the tipping industry, where we have thousands of tipsters, over a year almost half will look like geniuses. For them to do it over 2 years then cuts it down to half again, and as we continue to say a 5 year period, we have only a handful if any tipsters that have proven that what they do can not be attributed to luck. I believe over the past 4 and a half years, I can now attribute my success to more then luck. I have learnt so much in that time and I make fewer mistakes (but still many) that cost me profit. My goal to reach $1 million profit by purely following tipster services is 1/3rd of the way there and I’m sure over the next 5-10 years I will have reached that goal. Or I could crash and burn. Whatever happens I’m sure it will be entertaining for you guys.

In my time in this industry there are many things that piss me off. Without doubt the biggest is bookmakers only letting losing punters place bets. A close second is tipsters who take advantage of mug punters who trust what they see on their marketing page. I have posted many times about how poor the bookmakers were, but rarely did I call out a Tipster service. There are a few reasons for this. I believe for the most part it is up to each punter to look into whatever service they are going to spend their money on. If they were going to make any other type of investment then they would do their due diligence, it boggles my mind that they do not take the same care and attention when selecting a tipster. At the end of the day the goal is the same with any investment, they want to take out more then they put in. I also understand that these Tipsters are people too, they are trying to make a profit to feed their families. No matter how unscrupulous some are, their motives are usually the same (provide for myself and my family). So to ruin someones livelihood must be taken seriously. I’m also a team of one, I don’t have the time to devote to writing these posts day after day. Yesterdays post took me 7 hours to research, fact check, write and edit, and then the rest of the day dealing with what comes after.

The Trail files and Horse Racing Genius misleading results were by no means the worst I had seen in the industry, but it was current and would affect a great many people. When you have direct access to many thousands of punters who trust what you say then it is off utmost importance to respect that trust and be honest in all your dealings. I stand by everything that was written yesterday. I have the proof, many others have the same information and if the feedback on twitter and in the comments section is anything to go by, the same sentiments were felt by many others. Whether intentional or not, the results posted in their marketing and the Horse Racing Genius website were at best misleading. Without direct access to their results spreadsheet we will never know what the real results would have been if a punter followed every official bet.

Shortly after the post went live, I was sent a message asking to call Matt (Trial files). I immediately jumped on the phone. Matt was nothing but professional on the call and agreed they had made some mistakes. I respect him for not defending what happened and taking the time to explain his side of the story. I will note that I made a few mistakes in releasing the article before I talked to these guys. I really should have notified them beforehand and given them a chance to respond before posting. I have never “exposed” a tipster before and appreciate that I made some mistakes in how I handled it. In future I will give tipsters a chance to explain their side of the story before posting.

The trial files response is posted below.

Download (DOCX, 40KB)

Kudos must go to the Trial file team for their response. The Wild Charger bet was one of many I could have posted about but am happy to leave it at that. They have admitted they made some errors and there is nothing more I can ask for.

we are 100% happy to acknowledge that we have made and error here

The Horse Racing Genius team were also extremely cooperative and professional in their dealings with me. I believe with this partnership now in place and all this coming to light, the odds recording going forward will be nothing but perfect. They also issued a response and it is available below.

Download (DOCX, 109KB)

First I will acknowledge my mistake in attributing those results in the reply to Trial Files, they are in fact a separate service from HRG. I have posted an edit to the prior article.

Once again, a very professional response from a clearly professional outfit.

These are the things I asked of them.

  1. Email all subscribers and offer a full explanation of what has happened (Results were not real)
  2. Offer them all a full refund
  3. Come out with a statement about the falsified results and link to that statement with a disclaimer on any page referencing the trial files service.
  4. Create a document showing specifically what each bet means to them (boxed Quinella, Trifecta, so on)
  5. Explain in detail their odds recording policy.

All of this has been done in under 24 hours. I have also asked for a few more smaller things done to the site and they have also been done. Now I can not comment on their service in regards to if it is a profitable one, but I can now say that it is run by people who are willing to admit when things are wrong and take steps to correct them.

They also offered me a free subscription to the service so I could keep an eye on the results. I declined the offer, but it shows they are happy to be transparent. I am sure if there are any future issues a reader will alert me to them.

Honestly, I expected them to just go quiet and hope this problem went away or to go on the attack. I was pleasantly surprised by the outcome in this situation.

For those affected

For the customers who signed up off the back of the inaccurate results, you have been offered a full refund. This is what I would do if I was in your situation. If I had signed up purely because I found the race previews insightful and helpful with my betting, then I would have no issue continuing on with the service. These are well written and the lessons learnt could be worth much more then any profit made. But if I had signed up based purely off the results, then I would be asking for the refund.

The thing is we have no idea what the true results are, so in essence we are starting from scratch here. To know if a tipster is anything more then lucky we need at least 250 verified picks when the average odds are $2. For Horse racing where the average odds you bet at are much higher, we would need at least 1,000 tips before we knew if the results were down purely to luck. I know all you want to do is bet on the weekend, and if you really don’t care about long term profit and just want a bit of fun and only to lose a little then continue your subscription. But there is no harm in waiting to see how they go. Keep on their mailing list, and after a year of the service being live you can then make a better informed decision. There are heaps (and i mean heaps) of services out there with results updated daily and way more then 1,000 bets. But even with these you need to be aware that the odds they record at might be fake. Do your research, see if you can find any current customers to talk to and send the owners an email with any queries. This industry is full of sharks and every punter is a little fish primed for eating. Be very careful in the services you decide to swim in.

I have uploaded what is called a P-value test (created by Joseph Buchdahl from Football-Data). This excel sheet is pretty simple to use. Just put in the number of bets you have placed with a service, the return on investment and the average odds. It will then tell you if the service has simple been lucky or if it is that rare unicorn we all search for. Again, if you are using results supplied by the tipster themselves, make sure you know the results are not faked.

Download (XLSX, 25KB)

That wraps up an interesting week on the blog. I am very pleased with the final result here and hope I taught some readers a few simple things to look for when evaluating a tipster. Remember that it just isn’t the subscription fee that you will lose if you follow the wrong tipster, you will lose even more by following the bets. Take your time and do research on every single service you think about joining.

 

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

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The Trial Files and Horse Racing Genius: Dodgy dealings? http://www.daily25.com/trial-files-horse-racing-genius-dodgy-dealings/ http://www.daily25.com/trial-files-horse-racing-genius-dodgy-dealings/#comments Tue, 14 Oct 2014 22:03:01 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2049 NOTE: An update on this article has been posted here Disclaimer: All views expressed below are mine and based on my own experiences. These are just my thoughts and I advise everyone to come to...

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NOTE: An update on this article has been posted here

Disclaimer: All views expressed below are mine and based on my own experiences. These are just my thoughts and I advise everyone to come to their own conclusions and research every tipster they come across.

One good thing about the internet is that it is now very hard to get away with being a dodgy tipster. If you claim something that isn’t true, it is there for all to see (unless you delete it). Paying members are quick to point out fake results and dodgy record keeping. But when you post your concerns on their blog, forum, or facebook walls, they own control of that content and can easily delete it. There are not many places to complain and make sure others hear about it. I am working on such a thing as we speak. A place that will keep track of every tipster service and people’s reviews of them (Good and bad). I have built up this site over 4 years and google understands that this is an authority site. Any articles I write about a certain tipster will leap onto the front page in days. It’s about time that any fraudulent tipping services do not last long.

Today we have a service that has a real chance to come clean, change direction and run a fair service. If not it will be the first service put on the dreaded DODGY TIPSTERS list. These guys get their own page on my site and a nice trophy sent out to them. The page will also helpfully come up on Google if anyone searches for them.

We are talking about two services here. The Trail Files and Horse Racing Genius (part of the Genius Group).

Note: A big thank you to Matt who brought this to my attention and did a lot of the research for me.

The Trial Files

I came across this service back in July. When I said I was moving into following Horse racing tipsters, a reader alerted me to the service. They say they have been running for 18 months now. I joined their free email list and did a bit of research but could not find much data. I emailed the owner and asked basic questions such as what the odds were recorded at, when to place bets, so on. He replied quickly and nothing seemed amiss. He did say.

We did not want to be just another “tipping” service as we aimed at educating and explaining our process rather than providing numbers

My assumption was they were looking to become media partners with sites like Betfair, or horse racing specific media organisations. I could also see they would eventually move into a paid tipping service. Now there is nothing at all wrong with this. This is the way most tipping services have to operate these days. It’s a simple formula. Give tips away for a year, build a following and track record and then start charging. If this is done correctly and honestly then it’s a great way to build up a tipping business.

I decided to give the service a try. After 4 days I was quick to drop the service. My reasons were simple, I had joined up for a paid service that advised bets in similar races and I was put off by the fact no odds were suggested on the bets. This meant at the end of the day, I had no idea what odds they recorded their winners at and they never put these results up, apart from a graph of the overall results. Lets take a look at that graph.

trialfilesresults

Here is a tip for anyone who is looking into tipsters and thinking about subscribing. Be very wary of a graph like this. Before reading on, have a look at it and see if you can pick out anything that might show it to be less then honest? Take your time, as it’s a valuable lesson and may save you a fortune in the future. You can also compare and contrast it with my profit graph on the top left column.

Ok, let’s see if you picked up what I saw. Firstly we see a massive winning streak very early on. In the first 100 bets the graph shows 100 units of profit. 150 units of profit are made over the next 1,300 bets. This is a classic sign of something being amiss. At the start, no one is watching. The have carte blanche to record whatever figures they want. As no one knows about the service, there is no one around to query the results. It instantly gives them a nice looking graph as well and people start following. I am not saying that they did not get off to this amazing start (that has not been replicated in the next 1,300 bets), but from the 100’s of other graphs like this I have seen, 99% have been found to be fake.

So now they have made all this great profit in a short time and people start talking about them. So we see a more reasonable graph, one that goes from 100 units profit to 260 units in the next 16 months. Off course we don’t know what odds they are recording at. They are without doubt recording at either highest fixed odds at time of release or if the price goes out, the highest Betfair price. So those parts that look like they are breaking even are in fact long losing streaks for followers. If it was possible to get the best odds on every bet we placed, we would all make a fortune from betting. Around the 500 bet mark we see another jump of about 70 units. Anyone betting knows we all go through troughs and peaks and this was a winning run they went on. Anyone just joining the service at this point then raves about it to everyone they know and their followers grow. We can see their current twitter followers now sit at 2,370. This helps them with social proof. If all these people are following this service then it must be legitimate. But people will come and go, follow the service, lose money and leave. But very rarely will they unfollow on Twitter or Facebook.

Now, If I was to simply look at the graph, I’d say that yes they may have embellished at the start, and yes they record at the best possible odds (lots do), but they probably would break about even under normal circumstances. Now this was the conclusion I came to many months ago. But it was a free service so I moved on. There are thousands of similar free services over the internet and people are free to follow whoever they want. Then last week I received the email announcing they were moving to a paid only service. They were now teaming up with Horse Racing Genius and becoming a paid service. I had largely forgotten about them and without one very clued up reader sending me an email, this article would never have been written.

The email they sent not only explained how well they had done over the past 18 months, it had that lovely graph above in it and then below they listed some of the horses they had advised and recorded as wins over the past. Let’s see which winners they posted.

trialfileswinners

Looks very impressive, doesn’t it. We have a $70 winner there, lots of $20 winners. These guys are the real deal right? umm wrong. This is the point where they did themselves no favors. Everyone received the same email as me and they can’t delete emails. The graph alone was defensible. Showing specific winners can be easily verified by looking at the daily pdf’s they sent out.

Once again a big thanks to Matt who went through all of these and helped verify the results. I will post snippets of his findings and then his summary.

26 October Ascot – Wild Charger $70.00

Mentioned 6 horses in the race worth considering including Wild Charger, and said it was a tough race, but no unit bets suggested

Suggested 8.75 units worth of bets on the day, but nothing on Wild Charger

Also was $52 best tote, never hit higher on bookies, don’t know where $70 came from, betfair?

So lets see what the PDF file on that day looks like.

triallies

The race in question is Ascot Race 8. We see no suggested bets, only to look at the preview. The preview does indeed mention the horse, but also mentions 5 other horses and no bets are suggested.

Matt has sent me every PDF file showing no official bets (I would say an official bet has to show a unit size like the ones above.).

Matts summary:

  • Only 3 of the 13 winners “claimed” were actually suggested as actual bets with units provided.
  • That leads me to be certain that the ‘profit graph’ they have there is clearly including the above winners in the profits even though they weren’t truly suggested bets, and allocating random unknown unit staking amounts to them
  • It’s interesting they provide a graph showing their profits but no actual breakdown of every bet to show how the results were calculated. Again I’m sure it’s because all of these winners that weren’t actually suggested bets are included and they don’t want anyone finding out
  • It also appears the win odds claimed are the absolute maximum possible best tote/bookie/betfair at any time of betting, there was no consistent method and obviously that an unfair way to record results that no-one can match

Summary

What more can I say about these guys, there is insurmountable proof that they have claimed winners that they never advised. Their results are clearly falsified and the worst part about it they have teamed up with an even bigger site and are now taking money from unsuspecting punters. Not only will these punters lose money following these tips, but they will be paying them for the privilege.

Horse Racing Genius (MVP Genius)

These guys are huge. The have their own offices in Melbourne and are (I’m told) raking in millions from subscribers. I read about them when they started and thought nothing of them again. Until now. They have over 800,000 followers on Facebook across all their products and over 27,000 for the Horse racing genius. What is surprising is their twitter followers. They sit at a whopping 21 for Horse racing genius.  Facebook is a much easier medium to control, as if anyone writes any negative reviews about you on your wall, you can just delete them. Twitter is a little harder. It seems weird to see a discrepancy like this. It could be simply because they decided Facebook was the place they wanted to be.

These guys are great marketers. They clearly come from the same start up space as me, do all the tests that need to be done to improve conversion rates and get new customers. If you’re starting your own tipping site then it would be a good exercise to visit their sites and see how they do it.

Now it could have easily been a case that they took what the trial files team gave them in regards to records at face value. They maybe assumed they were on the straight and narrow and there was no need to verify the results. I would assume if you were going to partner with someone then you would look at basic things like record keeping at least. We will never know for sure if they knew in advance or not. What we do know is their reply once Matt brought it to their attention.

They replied to Matt and said:

I’d like to let you know that we are taking your email very seriously, and we will be removing previous Trial Files results from our website as early as tomorrow pending an investigation in to your claims.

Now this is a good first step. I can no longer see the results that were claimed on their website. But they still seem happy to continue working with them. The damage has been done though. I’m not sure of the numbers, but would imagine a few hundred people have signed up off the back of those results. Purely for integrity, The Genius group need to email everyone who joined the service and let them know the records were falsified and not a true account of the service. They need to offer a full refund for the service and also place a disclaimer on their site in case any new visitors come based on the false information.

Sadly it seems they have not told the Trial files guys about this stance as I just received an email once again advertising their product and quoting the results that Horse Racing Genius has now taken off their site.

lies

 

EDIT: I made a mistake here and believed these results were being claimed to be by the Trial files, these were actually the HRG results that can be verified on their site. This was a wrong assumption by me.

I will assume that the Genius team simplly did not do the necessary due diligence when working on this partnership. So while their business practices might not be the best, there probably has been no wrong doing on their part.

Until today. Yes folks, it continues…..

The first tip

If what happened on their very first tip is anything to go by then both parties seem content to continue recording misleading results. The tip was a Box Quinella on three horses at 0.5 units. Now every single tipping service I follow (and I follow a few) recommend bets like this. A box Quinella is simple, You select the horses all together and bet whatever unit stake was advised. The bookmaker then splits these up into 3 separate bets (or more if you select more horses). 0.166* units is then bet on the following 3 selections to result in a total stake of 0.5 units.

  1. Horses selection 1 & Horse selection 2
  2. Horse selection 1 & Horse selection 3
  3. Horse selction 2 & Horse selection 3

When you explicitly say BOX, that is what is meant. Now let us see the advised bet and the results they recorded at.

horseracinggeniusfacebook

 

The amusing thing here is that a member had to explain to them how a boxed quinella really works and show that the 18 units they have recorded as a win should actually only be a 6 unit win. Instead of simply saying they messed up, after the fact they decided to say the way they record is to make 3 separate selections yourself. So do not BOX them. It’s clear they are changing the rules after the win and had never explained this to members beforehand. They need to regrade this bet at the real profit, and if they do decide to continue their very strange staking, then that has to be spelled out to members and explained on the site.

When I look into a tipster there are many things I look for before deciding to follow them. These guys fail almost every single test. There are hundreds of Horse racing services out there, why would you spend your money on one that has clearly lied?

I am happy to post a full reply from the Horse Racing Genius team to clear up any of the issues mentioned in this post.

So why did I spend the last 7 hours researching, writing and editing this post. Because I am getting pretty damn sick of people taking advantage of punters. While I also agree it is up to each person to do their own research before spending their money, it makes it much harder for them to do research and come up with the correct conclusion if there is only falsified information to look at. The investment industry is probably the closest thing we can compare the tipster industry to. In the tipping world these lies are simply seen as the norm. If anything went on like this (anymore) in the financial planning industry for example, people would end up in jail. In future articles I will show the tactics dodgy tipsters use to build up a customer base, social proofing, misleading results and so much more. Hopefully once you know what to look for you will be able to spot these guys a mile off.

The Horse racing Genius service can still save itself from joining my dodgy tipsters hall of fame. All it needs to do is

  1. Email all subscribers and offer a full explanation of what has happened (Results were not real)
  2. Offer them all a full refund
  3. Come out with a statement about the falsified results and link to that statement with a disclaimer on any page referencing the trial files service.
  4. Create a document showing specifically what each bet means to them (boxed Quinella, Trifecta, so on)
  5. Explain in detail their odds recording policy.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

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