Daily25 Betting Blog http://www.daily25.com Follow my adventures as I try and make $250 a day from Sports betting Mon, 17 Aug 2015 23:51:17 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.4 August 12th – August 18th -$3,782.91 http://www.daily25.com/august-12th-august-18th-3782-91/ http://www.daily25.com/august-12th-august-18th-3782-91/#comments Mon, 17 Aug 2015 23:51:17 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2790 ugust has been a real bastard. Sadly there are two more full weeks to go. There were some bright spots this week. NRL did well and my first ever golf winner in god knows how...

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August has been a real bastard. Sadly there are two more full weeks to go. There were some bright spots this week. NRL did well and my first ever golf winner in god knows how long. But the AFL model was once again in poor form. There is just 1 day left to enter the competition to win a 1 years VIP subscription to the Dailyprofit service valued at $780. It takes 2 seconds to enter with your email address. Also remember to follow the new Daily25 facebook page.

A number of you are emailing me asking how I am betting the Soccer this season. I will post on the blog soon about that. It will be something very different, that’s for sure. Remember, this blog is just a hobby, sometimes I just don’t get around to posting as I have a million better things to do. These weekly posts are cathartic so I never miss them.

Onto the weekly results and the AFL dropped $9,400. A very frustrating week as there were some very big bets and while some got close, others were never in it. The NRL made a comeback with $3,650 profit, but my staking on that is 1/6th the size of AFL. MLB was also doing amazing until the Monday morning games went 0 from 4. A healthy $3,850 profit was still made.

Dailyprofit members did ok with a little over 3 units profit. Inching closer and closer to the 250 member mark and prices are heading up when we hit that mark.

dprofitadinpostBIG NEWS: I won a golf bet. Betswot had Jason Day among others this week and added $2,250 profit. Day is the sort of sportsman I would hope others think about when they think about Aussie sports stars. I think Kyrgios has ruined a great chance over the past year to have the Australian public fall in love with him. That will never happen now. But Federer used to throw racquets and be a bit of a fool when he was a teenager. Hopefully Nick can grow into 1/10th the man Roger is now. Jason Kelly lost $500, and my own bets lost $2,650. Lastly, betting against odds movements lost $1,000

A small loss but they are starting to mount up. Hopefully next week will be an all green report. Don’t forget to enter the prize draw.

Total Loss for the week was $3,782.91

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Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $663,785.00
Profit/Loss: $14,018.86
POT: 2.11%
Bets Placed: 539
Won: 187
Lost: 259
Half Payout: 6
Refunded: 87
Winning %: 41.9%
Total profit per day: $400,077.00 / 1875 = $213.37
Total Turnover: $22,549,817.30
Total ROI: 1.77%

AFL H2H $66,659.00 $2,228.91 3.3%
week profit/loss: 1200

AFL Line $210,989.00 $11,789.01 5.6%
week profit/loss: -10604

NRL $41,222.00 $(1,222.08) -3.0%
week profit/loss: 3649.51

MLB Totals $217,150.00 $7,973.52 3.7%
week profit/loss: 3861.50

Jason Kelly $3,665.00 $(3,665.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -500

Betswot $2,325.00 $363.20 15.6%
week profit/loss: 2263.20

Odds Pushed Out $9,500.00 $182.50 1.9%
week profit/loss: -1000

Personal $107,868.00 $(7,124.56) -6.6%
week profit/loss: -2653.12

Mistake $1,750.00 $1,760.75 100.6%
week profit/loss: 0

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#letusbet http://www.daily25.com/letusbet/ http://www.daily25.com/letusbet/#comments Mon, 17 Aug 2015 02:06:58 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2776 f you can remember back to the beginning of last year, there was a fair bit of media around corporate bookmakers denying bets on horse racing in Australia. The Australian Wagering Council (this still makes...

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If you can remember back to the beginning of last year, there was a fair bit of media around corporate bookmakers denying bets on horse racing in Australia. The Australian Wagering Council (this still makes me laugh as they are 100% owned by the British) represents all the UK owned bookmakers working in Australia. They released the following statement back in November of 2013.

AWClies

After a lot of effort from some very determined individuals, the NSW racing board finally stood up for the punter and introduced minimum bet limits on all races held in NSW. This will pave the way for other states in the coming years. It is a forgone conclusion that in 5 years time, Horse racing punters will be able to bet to win a certain amount on all races throughout Australia.

After listening to a great podcast on the issue of bookmaker restrictions, I thought I would see if this “1 in 10,000 bets is declined” comment was just a made up number. I posted a simple question on twitter. Have you ever been limited by a bookmaker or have you always been able to get you bets on? Now I understand the people who follow me might not be the ordinary punters, but they are in no way professional and most are losing punters.

The AWC has always said that bookmaker restrictions affect a tiny percent of punters. To me a tiny percent would be 1-2%. Let’s have a look at the tweet and the results.

We had 62 people respond to the question and 50 of them said they had been limited. That is a whopping 80.6%. 8 out of 10 people who try and place a bet are restricted in some way.

That is absolutely staggering, so staggering it needs to be repeated and on its on line.

8 out of 10 punters have been restricted from placing bets

Now the AWC is lobbying our government to stop us from betting with off shore bookmakers, the only bookmakers who will actually let us place the bets we want. It’s time to tackle this problem once again but with a view for all sports bets to have a minimum bet limit of $1,000.

From today, whenever a bookmaker restricts you, simple tweet at that bookmaker with the hashtag #letusbet.

It is up to all of us if we want things to change. To be honest, not being able to bet with Australian bookmakers is something I have dealt with ever since I started and I am more than happy betting with off shore bookmakers as I get better odds and am not treated with disdain. If the bookies get what they want (and they probably will as they have a lot of money to lobby these politicians) than the punter who likes to bet and does a bit of research and can make a small profit will be an endangered species.

Like with an hobby, over time if you commit yourself to learning the skills needed, you get better. If I took up painting, and over 5 years became really good at it, I could sell those paintings and make a nice profit. That applies for almost all hobbies. The one hobby where that doesn’t apply is punting. If you devote time and effort into learning about betting and get good at it, you will be told you can not do it anymore. Every bookmaker sells the dream of the winning punter in every marketing campaign, but the truth is they are selling a complete lie.

Bookmakers of Australia. #LETUSBET

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Help get both of us drunk http://www.daily25.com/help-get-both-of-us-drunk/ http://www.daily25.com/help-get-both-of-us-drunk/#comments Sun, 16 Aug 2015 03:04:37 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2769 Now, if I can’t use this site for my own personal gain every now and again, than what’s the point of it. In this case we can both benefit. Just like I would get money...

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Now, if I can’t use this site for my own personal gain every now and again, than what’s the point of it. In this case we can both benefit. Just like I would get money from a bookie if I sent you to their site and you signed up (which I never do). I can now get free wine if I send you to a new Australian start up. The great thing is you also get free wine.

If you are not an Aussie, you can stop reading now. If you don’t drink you can do the same. But there are some weeks when gambling that are so bad you just need a few drinks to help forget all your losing bets (drinking and gambling are a terrible combination, do not do it).

I’m not a big drinker (anymore), but I do enjoy a wine with dinner. I’m also a cheapskate and used to love my €2 Lambrusco when living in Milan. So when I came across this site and saw the current offer, I could not refuse.

Right now, if you sign up, you instantly get a $50 credit. Once you buy something, I also get $50 credit. I signed up and bought a case of some swill for $89. I ended up paying $39 for 12 bottles of not undrinkable wine. $3.25 a bottle. There are even cheaper deals on the site. I referred two friends and received a case for free.

I talk about finding value in bets, well this current offer is value in drinking.

All you need to do is click the link and signup. You will see the $50 credit and the next time you see a wine deal you like on the site, buy it. While you are enjoying your drink, you can sit back knowing you have also helped contribute to my own inebriation. Hopefully enough of you guys are also winos and I can get free wine for life.

You can also refer your own friends and get a free $50 credit when they join. No rules against referring the missus :)

Head to Vinomofo now and GIVE ME FREE WINE.

 

vinomofo

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Former Odds Compiler Series Part 1: Odds Compiling http://www.daily25.com/former-odds-compiler-series-part-1-odds-compiling/ http://www.daily25.com/former-odds-compiler-series-part-1-odds-compiling/#comments Thu, 13 Aug 2015 00:35:50 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2752 Over the next few weeks I will be running some guest posts from Matthew Trenhaile. Matthew has worked as an odds compiler for many years and is now out on his own taking on the...

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MatthewOver the next few weeks I will be running some guest posts from Matthew Trenhaile. Matthew has worked as an odds compiler for many years and is now out on his own taking on the bookies. Matthew has a very unique perspective as he knows both sides of the story. I am only an outsider looking in, so my views are biased towards the punter. I think having another perspective will help us understand a little of how the bookies work and any extra knowledge in that regard is always powerful. You can follow Matthew on twitter @CrazedAlchemist and he also has his own blog. Over to Matthew.

My name is Matthew Trenhaile and I worked as an odds compiler for six years at the UK Sport Spread Betting division of IG Index. Steve has very kindly allowed me to use his blog to showcase some of my writing and I hope to do that in a series of articles from the perspective of someone who has worked in the betting industry. Firstly I would like to go over some of the phrases I will use in my articles as the names for various things change from country to country and era to era. When referring to a favourite I will use the word “Jolly” and “Rag” for underdog, these are very much UK phrases to my mind. To describe smart punters I use “Sharp” and “Square” for losing punters. These are very much Vegas words and will also be used to describe bookmakers which I may abbreviate to “Books” on occasion. For accounts in another name used for putting on bets I rather like the term “Bowler” I assume this is an Australian phrase and I rather like it. When describing odds I will use decimal odds and when talking money it will be in UK pounds and pence just for my own ease. I am seeing more and more articles by industry insiders not to mention television documentaries and they all seem to generate a lot of heated debate. I am all for this if it is good natured but do please remember these are just my opinions and I happily respect those belonging to other people.

In each of the following articles I hope to tackle the subjects from a past, present and future perspective. First I will look at odds compiling and how it has changed over the past fifteen years and also try to tackle the subject of bookmakers copying prices off each other, which seems to be a hot topic. My perspective on odds compiling comes from spread betting and this is important because the spread betting industry is responsible for every significant change in odds creation of the last 25 years. For those of you unfamiliar with spread betting please go to Sporting Index’s website and go to their training section to get an idea of what is involved. You could oppose an outcome in sports spread betting before you could lay on Betfair and you could bet in-running online on the spreads before any of the fixed odds bookmakers. It was also IG Index who first invented the dreaded close out button on the doomed to failure fixed odds betting product Extrabet. While none of this makes me particularly good at odds compiling compared to another it does mean I was constantly at the forefront of technological advancements in the industry. This was true then and the sports spread betting industry still leads the way now either through employees who have gone on to devise the models of other bookmakers or through companies such as Sporting Solutions, a spin off from Sporting Index where they sell in-running prices to other bookmakers. It is with good reason that many fixed odds bettors take a look at the spread betting firms prices as a secondary check before placing their bets.

oddscompilingOdds compiling has steadily become more and more about databases, statistics and mathematical models and less about personal experience, intuition and feel. I was fortunate enough to work with men who had watched thousands of hours of racing and could pick out the smallest of nuances about how a horse was ridden or the strategy of a given trainer however, I was also fortunate enough to work with people who were able to break down sports into their fundamental inputs and turn those inputs into probabilities both before and during events. Odds compilers were initially split on the prospects of Betfair and certainly on its uses with regards to compiling prices. I started working at a time when Betfair had just reached significant liquidity levels and could not possibly be ignored if only because of the ever increasing numbers of arbitrage bettors. Within 6 years we used our Betfair API to price up all our horse racing products with a human simply to oversee the process. Contrast this to when I started and we had a trader for each horse racing meeting and a room of 40 traders in a time when the number of sporting events priced was less than a tenth of the number now. The luxury of being a subsidiary of a large financial firm was that we were better paid than the rest of the industry and had greater resources at our disposal whether it be staff or IT support. All resources were increasingly ploughed into trading more events in-running and developing more and more complex models for generating odds in-running. These odds were generated for our clients but also so that we could provide liquidity to the betting exchanges which enabled us to generate a significant secondary revenue stream.

Most statistical odds compiling originated with a simple counting of how often an event happened. Two football teams, count how often the home team won at home in the last 20 games, how often the away team lost away in the last 20 games etc. This was well before my time of course and what gave bookmakers an edge back then was studying the sports more than the punter and comparative odds knowledge. What I mean by that is if a bookmaker calculated a team should win 50% of its home games in football and last time these two teams played you put up 1.83 odds and the punters backed it like crazy the bookmaker then records or remembers this and puts out at 1.75 next time and when the punters come back it again and the bookmaker has extracted extra value from his margin simply by knowing what the punters did and what they were willing to pay for it before.  Odds compiling was more about knowing the punters and their habits than the actual percentage probability of outcomes. Even now this particular area is the difference between bookmaking and punting. Bookmakers have to anticipate money flow whereas the punter has to determine the probability of outcomes and find value. In an online world the odds have come to reflect real probabilities more and more and less public opinion or the narrative of the event. The emergence of in-running betting is what really drove odds compilation to mathematical modelling, it became too hard for a human to quote prices in multiple markets for multiple events in-running all with pen and paper. Bookmakers needed automation, which meant models.

sportsmodelMost sports betting models are easily found online and have been around for a while but with many tweaks and refinements over the years and ever improving levels of data. Poisson distribution won out as the way of modelling football not only because with some refinements it can be very accurate but also because it was easy to add time decay to the inputs. You have goal inputs for each team and as the match progresses those goals input in to the model slowly decrease meaning as the simulation is recalculated each second it produces a slightly different set of odds. This went from Poisson distribution to custom distributions per league and we went from working out goals for and against to shots for and against and then turning those in to goals. Now compilers are measuring the quality of the shots and the impact of individual players on the shots to create advanced player based shots models. Or are they? All sports have their equivalent mathematical model and all can be tweaked further as more data is recorded and made available. The question for bookmakers is how far do they go down that route? Do you pay to have people maintain huge databases? Do you pay someone else to provide prices? There are already several firms using the same prices from the same company for in-running football for example. Even if you did the odds in house just how good do they need to be to beat the average punter and can good (using sharp bettors positively) risk management hide a multitude of sins simply by letting your good punters move the prices in to shape for you? Sadly few bookmakers allow for that style of risk management or for the investment in better pricing. Odds compilers are finding out that one pound spent on promotions and marketing can generate a greater increase in profit than one pound spent on their salaries or in software development. Bookmakers want to spend just enough to beat the 98% of punters they need to with the minimum number of staff. Analysing in greater detail actually shows them that paying for decent profiling software and young no experience employees to operate it is even more cost effective than training or acquiring odds compilers of almost any skill level.

Maybe you are thinking that surely odds are a bookmaker’s product and surely they would be better served by developing that in the long run. This is an incorrect assumption for modern bookmaking. You do not choose which hotel to stay in by comparing the cost of a beer in the minibar. And bookmakers see the odds as about as important as the price of that beer. Their product is entertainment and not the selling of an intellectual contest between punter and bookmaker. It is foolish to think this has ever been the product that bookmakers have sold. They sell an adrenaline rush and anyone who thinks great characters pitting themselves against the punters and taking anyone on in horse racing betting rings is what betting used to be about is kidding himself or herself. Everyone has a story of how great bookmaking used to be. The people I speak to remember betting tax in the UK, huge margins, little choice between bookmakers to use, being refused payment and in fact being threatened with violence when trying to get paid out. I have no idea where this image of the gentlemen bookmaker comes from. Throughout time some bookmakers take your bets and some don’t and some allow you big bets and some don’t and some go bankrupt on you and some don’t. This has been true for both sharp and square punters. All bookmakers expect to win almost regardless of the quality of their odds (not a view held by their compilers necessarily) and better to channel their efforts in to getting punters through the door than lowering the price of the beer in the minibar. I do not like this model but I do not see this model going away.

pinsportsNow for the obligatory Pinnacle paragraph. Why can’t all bookmakers be like Pinnacle? The answer to this is simple and it is that there can only be one Pinnacle business model at a time. Others can take bits of it here and there but the exact Pinnacle model can’t be easily duplicated. Pinnacle’s tagline is that they welcome winners and simply put that is because they want to beat all the square books with the greatest sports proprietary trading scheme in the world. By employing the best odds compilers, betting to tiny margins, allowing all arbitrage and sharp bettors and moving your odds in accordance with how sharp they are your odds become the truest representation of the probability of sporting outcomes. You start limits low at your most vulnerable and increase them as your price improves. You spend nothing on marketing but allow absolutely anyone to use affiliate banners and give your API out to anyone you can especially arbitrage and odds comparison services. Your low margins mean you are the other side of arbitrage trades all day and all night and the square book your price is against is so bad at pricing you must be getting the value side of the arbitrage trade. In fact you are getting it over and over again but always moving your price to capture that small bit of value every time. You become the single largest punter that Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill etc has and all without opening a single account. Your risk management must be largely automated and you must have the servers of an investment bank. Anyone else trying to setup this model and succeed must do so with smaller margins and better risk management and not to mention a lot of capital. The only one I see really trying this is Marathon and they have not got to the point where they will not close accounts, in fact far from it. What about all those Asian bookmakers accepting winners? Well they are happy to take them on events where they see a huge volume of square money, which are of course all football matches and some US sports and maybe decent level tennis matches. The Asian Handicap model is designed to be low margin, fast moving and high volume and the sharpness of the money once close to the off is almost an irrelevance in some cases and early on limits are low like Pinnacle while the market forms so the risk is low. They are not however running a Pinnacle model but simply have got a large enough square volume to adopt certain aspects of it and are more comfortable to have loss making areas as long as the book as a whole is profitable.

So where do I see the future of odds compiling? Ultimately I believe that odds compilation will become an entirely outsourced function for bookmakers (are they still bookmakers if they don’t make the book?). There will be specialised companies whose primary function is providing odds both pre-match and in-running. There are already several companies that do this and there have long been companies who made it their business to provide liquidity to betting exchanges. You are going to see even more homogenised pricing than you do now. The reason that you see so much “copying” of prices is that the liquidity is such now in certain sports betting markets that there is now what can be deemed a market price much like in the financial markets. In top-level football there is very little incentive for bookmakers to deviate heavily from each other. Believe me when I say that extensive studies have been done that show trading against the market in liquid sports is a loss making proposition in the long term as bookmaker, not necessarily as a punter but when you have to provide thousands of prices across so many events you are better served by following the market. There are increasingly companies that will look at the market and say that a combined price from Pinnacle, IBC, SBO, Betfair (when liquid) and Bet365 for football for example can easily be concocted from API and will be more than solid enough. These operations aren’t going anywhere and see a staggering amount of bets, which keep the prices true.  So why do they put arbitrage opportunities up all the time even in liquid markets I hear you cry. The answer is we are still in a period of transition in the industry and some are still coming to terms with the idea of a market price that should just move on weight of money and not a trader’s opinion.

I actually envisage growing confidence from bookmakers in these consolidated feeds. They eliminate arbitrage or at least with any sharp sources and they are cheap to use. I think they will also outsource all risk management as well. There will always be exotic markets attached to the core liquid ones and if bookmakers have any sense they will raise limits on the core and reduce the limits on exotic stuff to 100 pound takeout which is fine for the average “amusement” bettor. As for horse racing I have no idea where that will end up, SP only maybe? I actually think that pari-mutuel betting with very low margins would be the way forward, a sort of universal Betfair SP. In Asia this kind of pool betting has not deterred punters of either the recreational or professional type. The problem with the UK is the amount of terrible racing that is on but who knows if every bookmaker pooled tickets, and Betfair and the Tote and shared the profits then maybe something of worth could emerge and it would also put pay to some of the rancid SP rigging that goes on. Punting will become about beating the market as a whole and not picking off the sick and the weak prices from bad books. This will require punters and tipsters to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the markets they tip in as much as the sports themselves. I have no doubt that Sportpunter can make money even at the AFL closing line and a recent study from the Secret Betting Club showed an eye opening result when looking at football tipster profits when using closing prices and yet few tipsters would want you to take the closing price because they do not understand how prices behave for the type of bets they suggest. Ultimately do not concern yourself with how the price is made or whether all bookmakers are showing the same price, only concern yourself with beating it, as there will always be flaws and edges to be found even if they become smaller and harder to spot. Next I will take a look at risk profiling and tipsters and what the new odds compiling landscape means for both.

 

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Win a years access to the Dailyprofit VIP service (valued at $780) http://www.daily25.com/windailyprofitvipforayear/ http://www.daily25.com/windailyprofitvipforayear/#comments Tue, 11 Aug 2015 22:47:32 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2745 I’ve been talking to a heap of other tipsters over the last few months as I am putting together a little something that I am sure you will love. That is still a few weeks...

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I’ve been talking to a heap of other tipsters over the last few months as I am putting together a little something that I am sure you will love. That is still a few weeks away, so I thought I would test the platform with a much smaller prize.

This competition is for a 1 year VIP subscription to my own Dailyprofit service. To say the next competition must be (as Ben Stiller in Zoolander might say) at least 30 times bigger would be an understatement.

As I want to make the main competition run as smoothly as possible, it’s a smart move to do a test run.

How it works

  1. You just need to head to the competition page by clicking this link. You will be presented with this page.
  2. dprofitprizeAnswer the Question.
  3. Put in your email address
  4. Check your email to confirm your entry
  5. Share the competition on Social Media to get more entries into the draw

That’s it. The competition will run for 1 week and the winner will be announced on the website.

So head to the site now and enter.

Good Luck

P.S: While I have done my best to source as many great tipping sites that I feel are fair in how they are run, I will have missed many others. Let me know in the comments below which tipsters you would love to win a 1 year subscription to and I will do my best to add them.

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August 5th – August 11th -$6,879.76 http://www.daily25.com/august-5th-august-11th-6879-76/ http://www.daily25.com/august-5th-august-11th-6879-76/#comments Tue, 11 Aug 2015 02:01:19 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2742 nother poor week brings the yearly profit right back down to under $20,000. I’m happy with a 3.22% ROI if that lasts for a season, but I’m sure there will be wild swings either way...

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Another poor week brings the yearly profit right back down to under $20,000. I’m happy with a 3.22% ROI if that lasts for a season, but I’m sure there will be wild swings either way of that number over the next 10 months. I have finally gotten around to creating a Facebook page for Daily25. I find twitters 140 character limit much too constraining when I am trying to explain something, so I’m hoping facebook will be a better place to interact. It also allows a better community for others to talk to each other. I’ll also be posting a lot more day to day stuff there.

This week just never got going, a big early loss on Friday followed by a good Saturday and than a poor Sunday. Historically the AFL model performs worse near the end of the season and that seems to be the case once again this year, but the NRL model has been horrendous. Over $12,000 lost in the last 2 weeks, the model seeming to prefer the favourites now and they are losing. I’m not sure if it is possible, but a different model for different times of the season might help. We do see it a fair bit with the SP models, the NFL totals only start performing after 7 weeks, and the NBA model is great in the first half of the season.

I’m always talking about entering and winning contest and once again won the Betfair 4th Ashes test prize. I’m now in front of second place by at least $50,000, so I’m unlikely to bet in the final round and try and hold onto that lead, good luck to the guys below me, if they can win over $50k on the last test they deserve the $15,000 grand prize. Tomorrow I will be testing a new idea I am working on. This test is a precursor of what is to come and it is more to test the response and to see if the website can handle to traffic. I think you will all be keen to be involved in this as prizes are involved.

Finally this week we will have a guest article from Matthew Trenhaile who was an odds compiler for many years and is now out on his own taking on the bookies. Matthew knows so much more than me about the industry and will be sharing many great insights. The first of many articles will talk about how the bookmakers compile odds. I’m really looking forward to learning a lot from Matt.

Onto the Sportpunter results and a week dragged down by the NRL service. That lost $7,850. The AFL pretty much broke even and the MLB made $1,500.

Dailyprofit members would be kicking themselves for paying for a year in advance right now. We had about 25% of members opt for the discount and since then it has been nothing but losing weeks for the SP service. Another 5 units lost this week. Happily for VIP members, the Value service continues to make guaranteed profits that cover any SP losses. But that offers little comfort for the non Aussie members who just follow the SP bets.

dprofitadinpostOnto the other bets for the week and Jason Kelly lost $400 this week. Betswot lost $375Betting against price moves lost $500 and I bet the wrong side of a baseball game, but that mistake bet won $700.

So back to back losing weeks. July had 4 straight weeks of winnings, hopefully August doesn’t do the exact opposite. Remember to join the Facebook page and remember to come back tomorrow to see what I have been working on (and win prizes). Than on Thursday you can come back again to read Matthews article.

Total Loss for the week was $6,879.76

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $552,453.00
Profit/Loss: $17,801.77
POT: 3.22%
Bets Placed: 454
Won: 158
Lost: 223
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 70
Winning %: 41.5%
Total profit per day: $403,859.91 / 1868 = $216.05
Total Turnover: $22,438,485.30
Total ROI: 1.80%

AFL H2H $54,404.00 $1,028.91 1.9%
week profit/loss: -2806.26

AFL Line $170,539.00 $22,393.01 13.1%
week profit/loss: 2750

NRL $35,695.00 $(4,871.59) -13.6%
week profit/loss: -7839

MLB Totals $186,850.00 $4,112.02 2.2%
week profit/loss: 1494.75

Jason Kelly $3,165.00 $(3,165.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -400

Betswot $1,900.00 $(1,900.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -375

Odds Pushed Out $8,000.00 $1,182.50 14.8%
week profit/loss: -500

Personal $87,493.00 $(4,471.44) -5.1%
week profit/loss: 75

Mistake $1,750.00 $1,760.75 100.6%
week profit/loss: 720.75

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Dailyprofit 1st year review – Value & Risk Free service http://www.daily25.com/dailyprofit-1st-year-review-value-risk-free-service/ http://www.daily25.com/dailyprofit-1st-year-review-value-risk-free-service/#comments Fri, 07 Aug 2015 03:07:52 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2731 This review was sent to Dailyprofit members and posted on the Dailyprofit website on Monday. I previously reviewed the Sportpunter section of the service here. Dailyprofit 1st Year Review The Dailyprofit service is split into two...

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This review was sent to Dailyprofit members and posted on the Dailyprofit website on Monday.

I previously reviewed the Sportpunter section of the service here.

Dailyprofit 1st Year Review

The Dailyprofit service is split into two unique services. We have the pure gambling side of the service which is the Sportpunter service. We have previously broken down the results of that service. The other service is the one we will be talking about today. This is the Value and Risk Free service. The vast majority of people I know are not very risk averse, and this service is perfect for them as it almost guarantees them a profit for barely any risk.

Many people are not sure what this service is, so I will try and explain the basics before diving into the past years results.

Bookmakers offer incentives to get new customers to join and keep coming back to bet. Our TV screens are bombarded by bookmaker offers. You know the sort, come bet and if you team is up at half time but lose, we will give you your money back. Place a first scorer bet and if your guy scores second, we will give you a refund. There are hundreds of different promos that the bookmakers offer to get you to come back to the site in the hope that you will become a more regular punter with them.

All bookmakers all over the world offer these promotions, but our service only concentrates on the Australian bookmakers. That is why this service is only for Australian and New Zealand people. We are looking to add a UK based service in the future.

It must be noted that these offers are given to customers in the hope that they will come to the site and also bet on other things as well. All bookmakers now have very advanced monitoring systems that check to see how valuable each customer is to them, and if they see you taking advantage of these offers and not betting on anything else, they will not allow you to use these offers for very long. We have documents on the site that show you how to prolong being banned, but eventually most bookmakers will ban you from taking up these offers. Some might be as soon as 3 -6 months, others it might take a year or two and some have never banned members.

Just be aware that these results are based off a customer having access to all promotional offers and they are not achievable for everyone. But in saying that we also show members how to take advantage of other offers that we do not record on the site. I believe $10,000 per year is achievable for anyone who is new to betting who uses this service.

Value & Riskfree bets 4 July 2014 – 4 July 2015

It’s everyone’s favourite time. Graph time. Let’s have a look at the overall profit we have achieved in the first 12 months of the service.

totalvrs

This graph is a gamblers wet dream. So steady, so upward, so so good… Sorry I got a bit excited there…

Over the year we bet a total of $110,625.70 (about $300 per day on average) and made a profit of $11,635.73. That is a 10.52% return on investment.

As you can see there is very steady growth each week. Each week on average you will make about $250 profit. During certain times of the year when big events are on (State of origin, Melbourne cup, finals time) there will be a heap more offers and more profit, but each week there are always a fair few offers.

One thing to note is that we mostly bet on Friday and Saturday. We suggest a $4,000 bank, but per week you are betting about $2,100 and most of that is over two days. So with a bank of $1,500 – $2,000 you should be able to place all bets.

We will now drill down into the 3 different bet types we have in the Value & Risk free service to see how each has done.

Risk Free

riskfreesummaryRisk Free bets are where we bet and lay or back multiple promos at once. As the name implies, these bets are risk free, you will make a profit from them. An example is a bookmaker who offers the favourite at a special price of $2 each week when their real price is much less. It is simply a case of betting the $2 odds and backing the other team at another bookmaker or laying that team on Betfair. Sometimes bookmakers offer the same sort of promotion and a profit can be guaranteed by backing the opposite team at each book.

There are less and less of these bets happening and more and more Value bets (where there is small risk involved). But they still added a very healthy profit of $1,722.82 over the past year. I personally do not mind taking on a little bit of risk with these bets and am always happy just to place them and not place the lay bet. This will result in a higher profit margin but adds variance and risk. At the end of the day it really depends on how you cope with risk. If you have a high risk tolerance you can place the main bet and leave it at that, or if you hate any risk at all you can place both the back and lay bet and know with 100% certainty that you have made a profit before the event even starts.

As you can see in the graph below, this chart only goes in one direction.

riskfree

Value Bets

valuesummaryWe now move onto the Value bets which also feed into the Freebets. Value bets are bets where their is usually a refund offer that might occur. We risk a small amount in the hope that something happens in the game and if it does occur we make a nice profit. So we may be risking $5-$20 in the hopes of getting back $50-$200.

Examples of Value bets are where bookies might give you a freebet if you place a certain bet on a certain market, or refund offers where if certain things happen in a game you get your money back if the bet loses.

These are by far the most common types of bets we are placing and over the past year we have made $5,717.28 profit at 7.25% Return on Investment. As you can see with the graph, there are lean periods and also a few losing periods, but for the most part it is week after week of winners.

This is where we add a fair bit of value to the service, as not only do we find all these offers for you (which would take hours each week if you were to do that yourself), but we also work out the maths for you and tell you exactly what amount you need to bet. Beyond that we also use our many years of experience when it comes to choosing the best bet for certain situations. There are many offers where you have to pick either the first try/goal scorer in a game or a horse to win. We go to the trouble of looking over the stats and comparing it to the odds to give you the best value bet to place.

Value

Freebets

freebetsummaryThe Value bets usually give us many freebets to use. These are the refund offers we touched on above. These refund offers usually have certain rules, such as having only the winnings from the bet given to you and certain turnover requirements. We go into detail on the site on how to make a guaranteed profit from these bets by backing and laying something. With the smallest amount of work you should be able to make 70-80% profit from these free bets. So a $100 freebet is worth $70-$80 real cash. We record these at 50% value. We do this because even the laziest person in the world would be able to beat these results.

As you can see by the results we have received $8,067.25 worth of freebets over the past year and converting at about 50%, we have made $4,195.63 profit. Once again anyone making a tiny effort would have returned at least 70% from these free bets which is $5,647.00 profit (an increase of $1,452.00). The other option which I prefer with these freebets is to go crazy. I just back long odds (or multis if you are so inclined) and do not bother laying.

As this is guaranteed profit once you have the free bet, the graph below only goes in one direction.

freebets

Other Bets not included

One thing to note is that we do not record Sign-up offers. These offers work of the exact same principle as the Free bets. We show you how to take advantage of these sign up bonuses, but as many members might already have an account with the bookmaker, we do not feel it is fair to add them to our profit and loss graph. If you are just starting out, there is at least $2,000 – $5,000 profit available from the sign up offers and this gets your bank up very quickly.

There are many bets we can not record that also offer a huge amount of profit. These are usually Horse racing offers and the reason we can not offer exact picks is because the lay side of the market (Betfair) only has enough liquidity (money) a few minutes before the race is run. Every week most books have a heap of races that will give refunds if your horse comes second or third. You can easily double your yearly profits if you have the time on Saturdays to take advantage of these offers. We do flag them up each week and there is a document on the site that shows you exactly how to play them, but as we can not make them official bets we do not add them to the results.

Account Closures

As mentioned above, bookies have these offers to entice mug punters to come back to the site and bet. There is 100% certainty that you will be bonus banned at many of these bookmakers over the course of the year. But we have found that even once you have been banned from all the ones that do ban, there is still a heap of value in the service and the profits easily outweigh the monthly cost.

We can take someone like me for example who has been taking advantage of these offers for many years. I am banned at most books but I can still bet at a few and it adds on average a hundred a week profit. An extra $5,000 a year is nothing to sneeze at.

How I would use this service

I believe this service is one of the most underrated out there. For anyone who is serious about making a profit from betting, this service gives you such a massive leg up. It will teach you everything you need to know to spot value, manage a bank, record bets and so on which will serve you well when you decide to gamble for real.

My advice for everyone is to start with this service, take advantage of the sign up offers (+$3,000 -$5,000), take advantage of all the offers over the year (+$10,000 – $15,000) and by the end of your first year you will have a $13,000 – $20,000 bank to really start attacking the bookies with the Sportpunter service. You will also continue to place as many of the Value and Risk free bets as you can and that should add a nice profit every single year.

I started my own personal betting with a $25,000 bank (and $25,000 in reserve which I never needed) and over the past 5 years turned that into $450,000.

Why you should join

If you are an Aussie or Kiwi, this IS THE service. Low risk, massive reward and the lessons you learn along the way will help turn you from a mug punter into a profitable one. At just $37 per month (price will be going up soon), and an average monthly profit of $1,000, there is no better return on your money. You pay for an entire years service after just two weeks of using it.

These offers will not last forever, and you will be kicking yourself in a few years when you had the opportunity to make some great profit and really kick-start your punting career. Get involved now while the bookies are being overly generous and with less than an hours work a week you can start building that betting bank.

In our first year our members took well over $1,000,000 from the bookies and we will take twice that much this year. Get involved.

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July 29th – August 4th -$13,008.94 http://www.daily25.com/july-29th-august-4th-13008-94/ http://www.daily25.com/july-29th-august-4th-13008-94/#comments Tue, 04 Aug 2015 01:13:27 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2725 t was coming. Just like we see patterns in clouds, it also seems like we derive patterns from dates as well. It seemed that August 1st hit and everything went downhill. We all know dates...

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It was coming. Just like we see patterns in clouds, it also seems like we derive patterns from dates as well. It seemed that August 1st hit and everything went downhill. We all know dates are just a construct of our society and have no real relevance, yet we see it as an anchor for pattern recognition. This week was looking so much worse on Sunday afternoon. Fortunately GWS covered the line and on Monday morning I woke to a perfect MLB day to claw back a heap of the losses. So year 6’s first losing week hits.

I’ve been watching Britain at the Bookies over the last few weeks. It’s a UK doco that follows the high street bookie Corals and random punters. I’m sure most of you would find it interesting. So far both episodes have been fairly balanced. But what strikes me is that I am nothing like the punters portrayed. This week they had Steve Palmer who I have heard others talk about before (he is the golf tipster at the racing post). He came across to me as just another mug punter. He clearly has an advantage with his Golf selections yet he was betting on everything else and losing. I guess the same could be said for me with Soccer betting. I think the fact that I don’t really care about betting is very helpful for me, while it might seem I spend a heap of time betting, the reality is it takes up less than 10 minutes each day and maybe an hour on Friday and Saturday. The biggest challenge for me has always been and I’m sure always will be not wasting time watching the games I have bet on. If they followed me for a day it would be the most boring 30 minutes of television. There is nothing at all glamorous about placing bets, and updating a spreadsheet.

As 90% of the bets are on Sportpunter models right now, a losing week means it was due to Sportpunter. The AFL lost a massive $14,700 and I don’t think many bets were even close. But a model hitting 24% ROI over the last month has to come back to reality eventually. The NRL was even worse than the AFL this week going 1 from 5 and losing $4,700. Luckily the MLB profit covered those losses with an almost identical gain of $4,700.

Dailyprofit members had their first big losing week in a fair while. If they followed my advice and only bet the footy models during this period, they would have lost 9 units. If they followed all the models the loss was a more modest 4.7 units. I still wonder why more tipsters don’t celebrate a losing week, instead they go social media silent. I get more new members when reporting a losing week than when we have a great week. Maybe it’s the honesty new members like, or that they have been waiting for a losing week to hop on. Whatever it is, being honest about losing weeks seems to generate more new members. It also helps to retain members. We lost a heap of members during our poor run at the start of the year, but since than most members that stayed now can handle the ups and downs and the people who leave are maybe 1 or 2 per month. I’m sure if we have a repeat of last week a few more times this month then we will see another mass exodus.

dprofitadinpostOnto the other bets for the week and Jason Kelly lost a further $200 this week. Betting against price moves made $1,050 and my own Personal bets made $800.

Sadly the first (of many) losing weeks this year. In better news, I did once again win the Betfair VIP competition and pocket another $2,000. I’m currently in second place on the overall leader board and with another good win in the 4th test I feel I will be in an unbeatable position to take out the $15,000 top prize. This time next week I will know where I sit. So that ends a poor week, but one that was overdue.

Total Loss for the week was $13,008.94

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $456,180.00
Profit/Loss: $24,681.53
POT: 5.41%
Bets Placed: 375
Won: 132
Lost: 185
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 56
Winning %: 41.6%
Total profit per day: $410,739.67 / 1861 = $220.71
Total Turnover: $22,342,212.30
Total ROI: 1.84%

AFL H2H $45,441.00 $3,835.17 8.4%
week profit/loss: -4272

AFL Line $144,429.00 $19,643.01 13.6%
week profit/loss: -10430

NRL $26,770.00 $2,967.41 11.1%
week profit/loss: -4686.94

MLB Totals $152,850.00 $2,617.27 1.7%
week profit/loss: 4687.50

Jason Kelly $2,765.00 $(2,765.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -200

Betswot $1,525.00 $(1,525.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

Odds Pushed Out $7,500.00 $1,682.50 22.4%
week profit/loss: 1065

Personal $71,243.00 $(4,546.44) -6.4%
week profit/loss: 827.50

Mistake $1,000.00 $1,040.00 104.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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July 22nd – July 28th +$5,880.00 http://www.daily25.com/july-22nd-july-28th-5880-00/ http://www.daily25.com/july-22nd-july-28th-5880-00/#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 03:09:26 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2719 uly has been a fantastic month. a 10% return on investment is 5 times my average. It also gives me that little psychological edge going into year 6. There is a nice buffer on my...

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July has been a fantastic month. a 10% return on investment is 5 times my average. It also gives me that little psychological edge going into year 6. There is a nice buffer on my profit and loss graph and no matter how hard we try, our emotions are inextricably linked to short term results. This week was a little different, usually I make profit on Saturday followed by a loss on Sunday, but Sunday was great this week. It was the Monday morning that really hurt. A terrible MLB day took about $7,000 profit off me. Last week I mentioned about winning competitions, I won another one thanks to Betfair who are running a long term competition for VIP members. The prize was $2,000 and the overall winner gets $15,000. Now that I know what I need to bet to win, I would say I have a 50% chance of taking away the major prize.

Onto this weeks results and the AFL managed $6,600 profit. It is having another stellar season. But doing just as well is the NRL head to head betting. This weeks profit was $2,500 but I bet a lot less on this model. But since the move to a player based model, it has been doing exceptionally well. The MLB was the heart breaker, it had done really well all week, but that Monday night loss turned a great week into a losing one. $1,700 total loss for the week.

Dailyprofit members made more profit once again. I offered members a 15% discount for a yearly subscription and the take up has been amazing, so amazing that Paypal called to ask what was going on. The best feedback is people who trust in the service so much that they are more than happy to pay an entire year in advance. We did have one angry member on Monday morning, I never (and really don’t expect) to receive emails after winning days. Over the last few months there have been a heap more winning days than losing ones. But when there is a bad day, there is always someone who needs to email and ask what the go is. These people never last, they clearly have not set up any type of bank and if one bad day means they get upset (especially when that week showed a good profit even after the bad day) then betting will never work for them. I do feel for some of the tipsters I have bad mouthed over the years, so I thought I would show some love to a few who I think have their customers best interest at heart and try really hard to make them a profit. With the Soccer season coming up I’ll be rejoining TFA, Football Investor and I am still thinking about Football Elite. But all 3 people who run these services are good guys.

dprofitadinpostOnto the other bets this week and we start with Golf, more chances again but no profit. $800 lost between both tipsters. Betting against odds lost $500 and my own personal bets lost $250.

Just the 3 days left in July and a really great result for the month. In August we continue betting on the same sports and I am hoping for another steady month. As ever with my dumb lizard brain, when in a strong position I think to myself “Why can’t this last? just 12 months of results like this and that’s almost $500,000 profit”. Ahhh, I have to laugh at how dumb I am.

Total Profit for the week was $5,880.00

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $378,174.00
Profit/Loss: $37,690.47
POT: 9.97%
Bets Placed: 310
Won: 114
Lost: 157
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 37
Winning %: 42.1%
Total profit per day: $423,748.61 / 1854 = $228.55
Total Turnover: $22,264,206.30
Total ROI: 1.90%

AFL H2H $41,169.00 $8,107.17 19.7%
week profit/loss: -556

AFL Line $121,819.00 $30,073.01 24.7%
week profit/loss: 7172.80

NRL $19,681.00 $7,654.35 38.9%
week profit/loss: 2519

MLB Totals $122,890.00 $(2,070.23) -1.7%
week profit/loss: -1668.30

Jason Kelly $2,565.00 $(2,565.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -550

Betswot $1,525.00 $(1,525.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -275

Odds Pushed Out $6,500.00 $617.50 9.5%
week profit/loss: -500

Personal $58,368.00 $(5,373.94) -9.2%
week profit/loss: -262.50

Mistake $1,000.00 $1,040.00 104.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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July 15th – July 21st +$7,928.15 http://www.daily25.com/july-15th-july-21st-7928-15/ http://www.daily25.com/july-15th-july-21st-7928-15/#comments Tue, 21 Jul 2015 04:54:49 +0000 http://www.daily25.com/?p=2710 don’t think I can remember a more steady period of profit than the last few months. 10 of the past 11 weeks have been profitable and the losing week was a small $3,000 loss. If...

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I don’t think I can remember a more steady period of profit than the last few months. 10 of the past 11 weeks have been profitable and the losing week was a small $3,000 loss. If only things were like this all the time. I’ve been a busy boy this week, working on a few gambling related projects. I’ll have something to share in an article this week. If you follow me on Twitter, you would have seen I am working on an interactive bet history app. Getting Sportsbooks to share this data has been an absolute nightmare, and from a business perspective you can understand why they would not want their mugs (sorry, valued customers) knowing their profit and loss (sorry, I mean LOSS) figures.

Earlier this year I won a trip to the Superbowl thanks to Ubet (tatts), and I will eventually get around to posting about the trip and how I managed to win that competition. Last week one of my mates who I took on that trip won his company wide competition to head to England for the Rugby Union semi’s and final (all expenses paid). His wife decided she couldn’t be away from their kids for that long, so I am happily taking her place (on the trip, not the wifely duties you sicko). The only downside is that I will have to watch Rugby Union, but the EPL will also be on while I am there in November. Josh who runs the Dailyprofit site with me also won a facebook competition last week and got to meet the Real Madrid team. There are hundreds of competitions running and you really should be entering them.

In Industry news, Ladbrokes have removed their Click to Call (Inplay) betting and all TV stations will no longer air any ads from William Hill and Bet365 about the feature while the legality of it is in question. As I said when this was first introduced, it was clearly illegal and these companies in a drive to earn some quick profits have cost themselves and Australian punters in the long term as they have pushed the chance for legal in play betting back a few more years. They should all be heavily fined.

Onto the weekly results and Sportpunter continues to perform. AFL made another $14,000 this week. There were some very close games and I was lucky to win the line by 0.5 to 1 point on a couple of games. The NRL did well with $2,200 profit and next season I will be increasing my stakes on this sport. MLB lost $150.

Dailyprofit members made a small profit again this week, but lost on those AFL bets that I won on. While I dislike marketing, we are going to be getting the Dailyprofit service more out there in its second year. I feel the service has proven its value and now we just need to get more people knowing about it. I broke down the entire first years Sportpunter results here. I will have a full breakdown of the Value & Risk Free service ready for next week.

dprofitadinpostBloody Golf, I had about 6 players in contention last night and at numerous stages I thought one might get up. Instead I ended with another $1,350 loss. It was not a good week for my own personal bets, losing over $5,250 and betting when odds moved out produced a $1,500 loss.

I can not believe that the new Soccer season starts in a months time. I have not even reviewed the last season yet. I know I will be betting very differently this season, but do not have the specifics down. I better get my arse into gear very soon. Long may this glorious run continue, I need a huge buffer for the Soccer storm. As always, I am excited and optimistic about the new season, but that is not based on past results, more of a wish that seems never to be fulfilled.

Total Profit for the week was $7,928.15

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $287,578.00
Profit/Loss: $31,810.47
POT: 11.06%
Bets Placed: 236
Won: 90
Lost: 119
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 26
Winning %: 43.1%
Total profit per day: $417,868.61 / 1847 = $226.24
Total Turnover: $22,173,610.30
Total ROI: 1.88%

AFL H2H $30,165.00 $8,663.17 28.7%
week profit/loss: 3112.70

AFL Line $92,031.00 $22,900.21 24.9%
week profit/loss: 10877

NRL $16,152.00 $5,135.35 31.8%
week profit/loss: 2194

MLB Totals $89,690.00 $(401.93) -0.4%
week profit/loss: -150.18

Jason Kelly $2,015.00 $(2,015.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -815

Betswot $1,250.00 $(1,250.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -525

Odds Pushed Out $6,000.00 $1,117.50 18.6%
week profit/loss: -1500

Personal $46,618.00 $(5,111.44) -11.0%
week profit/loss: -5265.37

Mistake $1,000.00 $1,040.00 104.0%
week profit/loss: 0

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