July 16th – July 22nd -$22,276.73

[dropcap]W[/dropcap]hat a pathetic start to year 5. Things go from bad to worse and with the football season not far off, and historically never producing any profit, I’m at a very low point. Another massive loss on fairly low turnover this week. We still have 1 week to go for the first month of year 5, but I already have close to a $50,000 hole to climb out of. Not an ideal start, but I just have to trust in the portfolio I have created and ride through this very rough patch. The AFL loss doesn’t concern me too much, the last few weeks have been poor, but the $11,000 loss was just two bets, can easily put that down to variance. But the ATP is a real worry, no profit for the last 12 months and now this new model has started so badly, last night added 2 massive losses on short price favorites. With average odds of $1.86, I should not be seeing the fluctuations I am unless something is very wrong with the ratings.

I’ve been very lazy the last few months and have not looked into what I will be following for the next football season. That changes this week and I will hopefully have my portfolio ready to show off in about 2 weeks. Once again as I do every year, I’ll spell out who I am following, my betting bank and also bet sizes. I will then widely speculate based on past performance the massive amounts of profit I am sure to make and then laugh at myself at the end of the year as I see how very far away I was from that. I believe last season I expected close to $300,000 profit from my football portfolio. I was slightly off that mark by $330,000.

Sportpunter was the main culprit again this week, combining all systems I follow it lost a whopping $21,250. The ATP lost $10,500 and WTA a further $1,400. The two AFL line bets lost $11,100 and there was 1 tiny H2H bet that won at odds of $17 for a $1,280 profit. The Rugby had 1 bet for a small profit and NRL made $900. The Baseball totals have now had wind and stadium data incorporated into them, but still managed to lose $700 this week.

After testing with people based in the UK and Europe, I know that I receive ClubGOWI emails 4 seconds slower on average then the majority of people. While it doesn’t sound like much, it really is a significant disadvantage and the main reason I no longer bet as soon as the tips come out. I can’t blame Keith for this, it’s just how it is, if I lived in the UK nearer the email server that distributes the emails then I might be able to get closer odds. So for now I am betting closing lines, and only if they are within 7% of quoted odds. This has resulted in me not betting on a number of games and this week that proved beneficial. I made $1,700 this week, but it would have been a loss if I had followed all bets. I think long term I am more likely to miss more winning bets and place more losing bets as the best indicator of a profitable service is how often it beats closing lines, so I assume the bets that come in and therefore I don’t bet, offer the most value.

The other two baseball models lost $2,000 combined and the Golf tipsters lost $800 combined, but got very close. McIlroy winning wasn’t the worst result as it helps the long term bet I have on him to win the race to Dubai given by the ClubGowi service.

If this week wasn’t bad enough, I’ve just received an email from the only Horse racing tipster who I had complete confidence in saying he is closing down the service. I would have put the service on par with the Sportpunter service. The odds recorded were beatable, the workload was 10 minutes a week and the results and long term history were amazing. Comparing it to the other Horse racing services I have been following makes them all look like shysters and conman. They just don’t compare whatsoever in terms of fairness of odds and ease of getting bets on. I had complete faith that this service would have provided me with amazing long term profits. Now I have to continue my search for a profitable horse racing tipster. This tipster was just like Sportpunter is to all the other services I follow, it makes a profit while I continue looking for any other service that can do the same. I will eventually get around to updating you all on this new avenue of betting.

The new site is coming together nicely and I have added a few small touches over the last week. You will now notice a big number on the top right header showing the profit for the previous month. It looks good right now, but from August 1st it will have a very big negative number up there for the month. I really like the look of the new site, and now just need to create a logo for it and I think it wont need any further work for the next year. If you feel anything can be added to it to make it even better then let me know in the comments section.

I wonder what the final week of month 1 year 5 will bring. I just don’t know anymore and can only hope for a quick return to profit.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total loss for the week was $22,276.73

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $383,171.00
Profit/Loss: $(45,498.60)
POT: -11.87%
Bets Placed: 472
Won: 201
Lost: 245
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 23
Winning %: 45.1%
Total profit per day: $302,026.24 / 1483 = $203.65
Total Turnover: $14,725,914.37
Total ROI: 2.05%

ATP – SP $78,589.00 $(13,009.55) -16.6%
week profit/loss: -10,494

WTA – SP $55,754.00 $2,474.92 4.4%
week profit/loss: -1420.60

AFL H2H – SP $13,687.00 $(290.80) -2.1%
week profit/loss: 1280

AFL Line – SP $90,289.00 $(33,128.37) -36.7%
week profit/loss: -11,102

SP MLB $49,261.00 $(819.65) -1.7%
week profit/loss: -717.23

Rugby SP $8,678.00 $(2,771.50) -31.9%
week profit/loss: 319

NRL SP $5,179.00 $2,141.00 41.3%
week profit/loss: 877.90

ClubGowi $34,849.00 $455.10 1.3%
week profit/loss: 2187.70

GOWI $557.00 $(557.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -500

Diamond Edge $24,500.00 $(864.00) -3.5%
week profit/loss: -1453.50

PCG $18,100.00 $2,619.25 14.5%
week profit/loss: -480

Jason Kelly Golf $1,400.00 $(800.00) -57.1%
week profit/loss: -425

Betswot $2,328.00 $(948.00) -40.7%
week profit/loss: -350

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  • Brian

    Looks a rough time with AFL at the moment? Is it still travelling well for the season? Just a bad few weeks for the Sportpunter model?

  • Yeah, not hitting the heights of years past.
    H2H stands at 5.5k profit and Line bets are at 30k profit.
    Any other service and I’d be over the moon. But I’ve become accustomed to Sportpunter always performing beyond reasonable expectations.

    5 and a half more round before the finals, so hoping for a strong end to the season.

  • Thomas Henry

    Does your staking levels on the Sportspunter model not make all the other models largely irrelevant. It seems the majority of your risk is on one model.

  • Banner

    Hi Steve,

    Ever considered dropping football completely ?
    If it isn’t profitable, why persist in the hope that it may be profitable ?

    Good luck this season !

  • Not really, the stakes are large because there are so few bets per week. Last season over H2H and Line bets I bet $740k, ATP was $590k, TFA $690k. In total it was only 16% of my total turnover, but accounted for 71% of my profit.
    If these other models performed, then they would potentially return as much as AFL

  • Hey Banner,
    I persist because it’s the one sport without liquidity issues (for the most part). If I ever decided to have a real crack at this and aim for 1million in a season, the only way that could be done is by betting on soccer. I struggle as it is getting my AFL bets on now and doubt I will have enough accounts left to place anything in the next few years.

    Cracking Football is the only way to make this sustainable long term.

    Another reason is not putting all your eggs in one basket. I saw yesterday how dangerous that is as the only Tipster in Horse racing that I trusted decided to pack it in. What happens if Jonno gets an offer he cant refuse. Someone with large pockets could offer him a million for the AFL model and that’s the end of that.

    Like any type of portfolio that works, it needs to be diversified.

  • phatkoch

    Do you not feel it is possible to use American sports as a high liquidity market ?

  • Yep, I think it is a massive market and have slowly started testing tipsters in the area. There is a lot of rubbish though. But yes, bet limits massive and easy to get on. My next big avenue with Australian Horse racing.

  • Profitcsinalo

    I’m also looking for tipsters who works with high liquidity markets. I have found that ATP/WTA tennis tipsters are very good, because the limit is about 1000-3000 EUR at Pinnacle and you could bet again with a slightly lower odds again. But it is hard to find good tennis tipsters.

  • I have always struck with Sportpunter for Tennis, but the last year and a bit has not been good and I will start looking at other unless there is a drastic change soon. Very easy to get 2-5k on at or near top price.

  • Norman

    Hey, I’ve been reading your early posts and you referrred to earning FF points, don’t the cc companies charge a cash advance fee for gambling sites?

  • No, you are right that the American sports are very liquid.

  • Most do and I went searching for one that didn’t. ANZ was the only one who didn’t, but that changed at the start of this month, they still don’t charge a cash advance fee, but no longer give FF points. I will be posting about this soon and my future plans (there is always a loophole somewhere)