July 2013 Review -$10,856.68

Not the greatest start to Year 4. The June to August period is a very quiet time betting wise. Not much is on and therefor turnover is reduced. This month saw what will be the lowest amount bet for the year at $216,489. The loss was $10,856.68 which was a negative ROI of 5.01%.

There was one sport that was the culprit this month and that was MLB. It had a horror start and after talking to the owner of the model he told me his team bet much smaller in this period and even less on the totals. This was information that would have been welcomed without me having to ask why it was going so poorly. In retrospect I wish I had said nothing and kept betting, as I decided on CRDOG’s advice to stop following totals and still bet H2H. The H2H bets have made a small loss since then but if I had been following the totals, they would have recouped the almost $10,000 first week loss. Really pissed at not being told this information beforehand and the fact that MLB has given back all its profit and then some in this short period of time, and the fact I could have done something about it really gets my goat. So between H2H and Totals the month saw a loss of $18,469 on MLB.

This month I started following Nic’s Picks and have already decided to make a major change. I will stop backing Place bets and just place the Win bets now. The variance and losing runs are going to be huge, but I can get the same or better odds for Win bets, but usually 30% worse for place bets. A simple decision really.

Everything else made a bit of profit. You can see the exact figures below.

Just one extra note. I’m always amazed at how my brain works or doesn’t in this case. Last week after a really long day of travelling I left my sunglasses in the backseat of a taxi. That same day I lost about $7,000 on AFL. I was way more upset over the loss of the glasses then the $7,000, I guess this is a good thing, but I could have bought 35 pairs of the same glasses with that money, or hired someone famous to go and buy them for me, wear them for a day and then deliver them personally to me. They were my favorite glasses and had been with me for the past 5 years, but I had an almost identical backup pair in my backpack (different colour). Still amazes me how the brain applies value to things.

August should be another slow month, before everything goes nuts with Soccer starting again. No idea how I am going to be able to place all these bets while travelling, going to be very complicated.

ATP – SP $47,250.00 $550.93 1.2%
AFL H2H – SP $9,417.00 $919.80 9.8%
AFL Line – SP $61,169.00 $2,891.38 4.7%
NP Win $1,575.00 $(1,575.00) -100.0%
NP Place $1,625.00 $619.00 38.1%
OTP NRL $11,000.00 $4,207.00 38.2%
MLB H2H $51,716.00 $(8,906.24) -17.2%
MLB Totals $32,737.00 $(9,563.55) -29.2%

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