July 9th – July 15th +$90.90

[dropcap]A[/dropcap] huge week and a massive profit, is what I would be saying if certain teams (cough GWS Giants) knew how to finish off games. Instead we end up right back where we started (give or take the cost for a box of diapers). The blog has been quiet over the last few weeks as I have been busy watching the World Cup, running my service and trying to push myself to put the finishing touches onto the video courses first draft. Hopefully now that my sleep pattern and routines can get back into order, I can start producing that stellar content you keep coming back for week after week :). Pretty impressed that I could bet $141,553.00 in a week and only make $90. It is the first profitable week in year 5 and I will happily take that over a loss any day.

The AFL had another poor week and really, when it doesn’t perform then it’s very unlikely that I’ll have a good week. A $3,000 loss at the end of the week. The WTA continues to do well with a massive $5,400 profit this week, but the ATP keeps struggling with massive bets on favs not getting up. A small loss this week of $200. The MLB Totals made $425, NRL lost $70 and Rugby ended the regular season with another dismal week with a loss of $2,000. It’s hard to bet on these last few games of the season when motivation plays a big factor, some teams need a win while others just want to end the season as quickly as possible. You would assume that any professional team would play to its potential every week, but it’s clear that they don’t when the results are meaningless. Potentially an edge to exploit.

After 7 months, my enthusiasm for the ClubGowi service is at an all time low. A $3,600 loss this week brings the total profit and time commitment to something resembling slave labor, add in the subscription cost and I have to start asking myself if it’s worth the effort? Keith continues his very bizarre staking with Golf picks which I do find baffling. Over the length of my subscription I have lost $6,200 on his Golf bets, and unlike the other Golf tipsters I follow, Keith bets mostly in the final round where the odds are a little shorter and therefore the variance should not be as high. I believe his results are heavily weighted to a few big wins per season and the daily bets might be break even at best, but without him sharing his odds and history for members to look into then there is little that can be done to make the service better for everyone. It’s also no surprise that when the service is not performing, no results update is forthcoming. The last one was over 3 months ago now. Once I have a full years worth of data, I will do some analysis and hopefully I can find an easy way to follow the service and get some results.

Both baseball services made a handy return to form with Diamond Edge gaining $2,900 and PCG adding $900. My only issue is that PCG odds are unattainable, and the line bets massively so. At the moment that could be down to me as I am never awake at 2 am when the bets come out, so can’t say if they are available at the time of sending. Diamond Edge on the other hand has very fair odds recording and I can therefore trust the results on the website. Something I can say about very very few services.

How hard is it to record fair odds? It’s not at all hard, but as I keep saying, the majority of tipsters seem to feel that it is better to lie about the true results that a new customer might expect to get instead of being honest. While this gets more people signing up over the short term, once they realise that they are not going to make a profit, not only will they leave the service, but many will also post on forums and eventually this will catch up with a service. The service then has to keep producing unachievable results to get more new subscribers. On the other hand if a tipster is completely transparent and fair in the way it records results and exceeds customers expectations, then you will have customers and fans for life. But again, I have not found many tipsters who would show much of a profit if any if they were to record fair odds. Just a little note here, I am mostly talking about other services I see in the market, who completely lie about odds and even remove losing bets after the fact. While the majority of tipsters I follow could greatly improve the way they record odds, most at least record what was available when they released their picks.

The Golf tipsters I follow do record at fair odds and with a bit of work and thanks to betfair, these can be beaten. This week Jason Kelly lost $375 and Betswot lost $370.

We start week 3 with the hope of chipping away at the early season 5 loss. Hopefully AFL kicks back into gear and the other services follow suit. I’m still optimistic that eventually this period will result in some profit and by the end of December I will be sitting on a very healthy half year profit.

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Total Profit for the week was $90.90

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $269,732.00
Profit/Loss: $(23,221.87)
POT: -8.61%
Bets Placed: 335
Won: 140
Lost: 175
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 18
Winning %: 44.4%
Total profit per day: $324,302.97 / 1476 = $219.71
Total Turnover: $14,612,475.37
Total ROI: 2.22%

 

ATP – SP $39,443.00 $(2,515.55) -6.4%
week profit/loss: -207.17

WTA – SP $24,837.00 $3,895.52 15.7%
week profit/loss: 5371.37

AFL H2H – SP $13,607.00 $(1,570.80) -11.5%
week profit/loss: 3163.70

AFL Line – SP $79,187.00 $(22,026.37) -27.8% 9 20 45.0%
week profit/loss: -6145.50

SP MLB $43,567.00 $(102.42) -0.2%
week profit/loss: 425.15

Rugby SP $8,128.00 $(3,090.50) -38.0%
week profit/loss: -1986.50

NRL SP $3,279.00 $1,263.10 38.5%
week profit/loss: -72.40

ClubGowi $21,799.00 $(1,732.60) -7.9%
week profit/loss: -3557.00

GOWI $57.00 $(57.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

Diamond Edge $19,000.00 $588.50 3.1%
week profit/loss: 2938.50

PCG $13,875.00 $3,099.25 22.3%
week profit/loss: 905.75

Jason Kelly Golf $975.00 $(375.00) -38.5%
week profit/loss: -375.00

Betswot $1,978.00 $(598.00) -30.2%
week profit/loss: -370

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  • wah

    PCG
    pro computer gambler is a service i am interested in but cant find any data on it. If there results are true and achievable i would join. You can check what previous odds were on betbrain i believe.

    What time do you put your bets on

    and i can not find any results for diamond edge where would i find them

  • I place my bets about 6 hours after they are released, so there is every chance the prices are available early. By them not rebounding it means PCG beats closing lines which is a very good predictor of a profitable edge.

    Diamond Edge can be found at http://www.statattacksports.com/

  • wah

    Thanks
    i have looked at the diamond edge site but couldnt (cant) find results might be because ive only looked on my mobilei

    i had a look at one of the pcg proofing sites (cant remember which one off the top of my head) and they seemed to believe that they did not beat the closing line although had them in profit by about what they claim on their website

    i think i will hold off for a few months and see what happens

  • yeah, I think it was Picksmonitor. I’ve been told MLB isn’t PCG’s strong suit and the NFL is where it makes most of its profit.

  • Hareeba

    So Steve, you’d recommend Diamond Edge?
    I can’t see any record of results.
    $395 USD for remainder of season seems a tad pricey?

  • No, i can’t recommend it based on its results for me, all I can say is the odds are achievable.

  • Hareeba

    Yes, I see that you are in negative territory with them but there must have been something more positive which had you start subscribing?

  • was recommended by a friend who had followed for years, that coupled with the fact the odds posted are not only achievable but beatable leads me to believe past results are correct, and based on past results I would follow it.

  • Veselin Stanchev

    I’ve only followed PCG for 5-6 months during 2 spells and would say that I’m pretty satisfied with it. Tom seems like a fair guy, have exchanged a few mails with him, the fee is pretty reasonable unlike any other US service. I don’t record odds stats as there are no advised odds for Totals bets but I’d say I achieve some 97-98 % of the odds which is good enough for ROI in the range of 2-4 %. Not bad for US market and I will definitely keep teh service.

  • Thanks Veselin,
    I guess I just need to sort out those line bets and my time difference.

  • Pleunbhoy

    With lots of interest I’ve been following your blog. It really is an inspiration! One thing puzzles me….Why do you persist in using (and paying) tipsters that you are not happy with? Why don’t you just quit any tipster that doesn’t generate profit for you?

  • Andrew

    Anyone who has been with GOWI for a while absolutely loves it, so I’m just hoping we are treading water with some big months coming up. Someone posted an article about the Pareto principle on your forum and that made me willing to wait a bit longer. I think GOWI’s results in September – November last year were quite phenomenal.

  • Hi Andrew, how long have you been with Gowi for now? While past data is important (but GOWI doesn’t share this apart from a simple ROI figure), Tipsters can easily lose their edge. I did write about the Pareto principle and how it can be used here. 80% of profits will come in 20% of the time. So most profit will come from just 2 or 3 months.

    My main concern and many others I talk with is his lack of transparent record keeping, his unwillingness to share his results so we can help him figure out where he is lacking and where he is great.

    I will need to wait and see with this service, I’m paid up til November I think, so will have a full years worth of data to work with by then.

  • Andrew

    I joined in December 2013 so I’ve been with him almost exactly the same length of time as you. If we had joined 3 months earlier I think we would have a completely different outlook.

    We will also have missed out on almost all his antepost football bets.

    How long have the other people with concerns been with GOWI? Obviously I have concerns, but the real long-term members I speak to don’t. I am also starting to like the service and see some OK profit from it.

  • Wayne

    Hi Steve! I can see you’re struggling and frustrated with some of the services out there? If really so, I can reveal one you don’t use and that might want to check it out? http://WWW.BETSOON.INFO using it since December 2013 and don’t regret. Try it yourself and you’ll see! 🙂

  • I have people who have been with him over 2 years saying they are ready to quit. It’s a lot of work too, and unlike other tipsters, 7pm release can be 10-15min either side of it.

    I also like the service, but I think I am wasting a lot of my time on some bets, but I just don’t know. I think I might get the same return for less work if I just placed antepost and weekend bets.

  • Andrew

    Yeh, I don’t see what’s so difficult about sending the tips on the hour.

    It seems like whenever I say I’m starting to like the service, Keith goes through another one of his “episodes” where almost every bet loses.

    It’s a tricky one.

  • Problem is, with the results he shows on his site, he will continue to churn through new customers and therefore assumes there is no problem with how he runs the service.
    I assume his customers last maybe 2-3 months on average. They either join when he is on a bad run, or eventually work out they are not matching the odds. But I also notice the amount of really stupid members who will take a bet at any odds, I remember deciding to check on a single tennis match once and within 5 minutes they had driven the price down 37% and people were still betting it. Just ridiculous.. but then again, these are the people that help me make a profit, so I can’t complain too much.

  • Andrew

    It would be interesting to see how our odds compare, given that we know I get the tips about 4 seconds before you.

    Also, you have me worrying about the way odds are recorded. I don’t want to reveal the tips, but today, for example, you know we have a bet on a golfer to finish in the top 20, but top 10 was also suggested at 6.50 and both are written as a ‘red type’ official selection.

    If this golfer does finish in the top 10, do you think the top 20 finish will be recorded or will the top 10 be taken?

  • Hi mate,
    Unlike most people who decide to follow tipsters, I know that short term doesn’t say anything at all. The only think I look at is if they record fair odds, can I get those odds and if the service will suit my risk profile.

    Now there are some tipsters who I do not like who look like they may make me money, then there are tipster I like who will probably lose me money. I like to be very sure that I am not going to make a profit with a tipster before I quit.

    But also it is a psychological issue too, once we decide to invest real money (and in my case, big money), into something, our brains then tell us that we must have made the right decision. To then go back on this and admit you were wrong and therefore stupid is a hard thing to do. There is a saying in the startup world which goes “Hire slowly, fire quickly”. It may be a mantra I need to follow in regards to tipster too.

  • Yes, happy to compare, I have decided to bet closing odds and only if I can get within 5% of his quoted odds, I believe I may be missing the winners and betting the losing ones, as a good way to measure if a tipster is profitable is to compare his bets against closing lines.

    In regards to how he records, it is a complete joke isn’t it. Circa 2.3-2.5, 3.8 is available at one place, so on. Who knows what he is recording at to get his results, I know I can not match anywhere near them nor anyone else.

    Already this month my profit is half of what his recorded odds show (and that’s only the ones where I got within 5%). I believe things need to change.

  • Andrew

    Do you think the leagues GOWI bets in are liquid enough to make the closing line an efficient price? The reason I ask is that I remember Keith saying that he’s so confident in what he does that he will put more money on a selection if it keeps drifting.

    While I share your concerns about the way odds are recorded, I do not have the same number of complaints about the odds he suggests. I almost always see the odds Keith advises and if I miss them it’s because I’m too slow. You, on the other hand, do not stand a chance of seeing the odds I see.

    The 4 second delay between us receiving the tips gives me a massive advantage, to the extent that we are effectively following a different service.

    I think I suffer from a similar problem when it comes to PCG, as there must be a lot of American members getting the tips a few seconds before I do.

    I know how pragmatic you are when it comes to this stuff and I do think your location means you will always be swimming against the tide when it comes to GOWI.

    While his performance hasn’t been as good as last year, I reckon your opinion on the service would be much different if you came from the UK.

  • Yeah, I agree. It’s up to me to use the service as best I can based on my circumstances. While I don’t agree with how the service is run, I can’t blame him for my distance issues.

    That is why I have made the move to betting just before games start, so far it has worked out. Eventually when I have more data, I will also only bet certain types of bets at certain odds ranges.

    I think the leagues he plays in are big enough (for the most part) to produce efficient prices.