July 9th – July 15th +$90.90
[dropcap]A[/dropcap] huge week and a massive profit, is what I would be saying if certain teams (cough GWS Giants) knew how to finish off games. Instead we end up right back where we started (give or take the cost for a box of diapers). The blog has been quiet over the last few weeks as I have been busy watching the World Cup, running my service and trying to push myself to put the finishing touches onto the video courses first draft. Hopefully now that my sleep pattern and routines can get back into order, I can start producing that stellar content you keep coming back for week after week :). Pretty impressed that I could bet $141,553.00 in a week and only make $90. It is the first profitable week in year 5 and I will happily take that over a loss any day.
The AFL had another poor week and really, when it doesn’t perform then it’s very unlikely that I’ll have a good week. A $3,000 loss at the end of the week. The WTA continues to do well with a massive $5,400 profit this week, but the ATP keeps struggling with massive bets on favs not getting up. A small loss this week of $200. The MLB Totals made $425, NRL lost $70 and Rugby ended the regular season with another dismal week with a loss of $2,000. It’s hard to bet on these last few games of the season when motivation plays a big factor, some teams need a win while others just want to end the season as quickly as possible. You would assume that any professional team would play to its potential every week, but it’s clear that they don’t when the results are meaningless. Potentially an edge to exploit.
After 7 months, my enthusiasm for the ClubGowi service is at an all time low. A $3,600 loss this week brings the total profit and time commitment to something resembling slave labor, add in the subscription cost and I have to start asking myself if it’s worth the effort? Keith continues his very bizarre staking with Golf picks which I do find baffling. Over the length of my subscription I have lost $6,200 on his Golf bets, and unlike the other Golf tipsters I follow, Keith bets mostly in the final round where the odds are a little shorter and therefore the variance should not be as high. I believe his results are heavily weighted to a few big wins per season and the daily bets might be break even at best, but without him sharing his odds and history for members to look into then there is little that can be done to make the service better for everyone. It’s also no surprise that when the service is not performing, no results update is forthcoming. The last one was over 3 months ago now. Once I have a full years worth of data, I will do some analysis and hopefully I can find an easy way to follow the service and get some results.
Both baseball services made a handy return to form with Diamond Edge gaining $2,900 and PCG adding $900. My only issue is that PCG odds are unattainable, and the line bets massively so. At the moment that could be down to me as I am never awake at 2 am when the bets come out, so can’t say if they are available at the time of sending. Diamond Edge on the other hand has very fair odds recording and I can therefore trust the results on the website. Something I can say about very very few services.
How hard is it to record fair odds? It’s not at all hard, but as I keep saying, the majority of tipsters seem to feel that it is better to lie about the true results that a new customer might expect to get instead of being honest. While this gets more people signing up over the short term, once they realise that they are not going to make a profit, not only will they leave the service, but many will also post on forums and eventually this will catch up with a service. The service then has to keep producing unachievable results to get more new subscribers. On the other hand if a tipster is completely transparent and fair in the way it records results and exceeds customers expectations, then you will have customers and fans for life. But again, I have not found many tipsters who would show much of a profit if any if they were to record fair odds. Just a little note here, I am mostly talking about other services I see in the market, who completely lie about odds and even remove losing bets after the fact. While the majority of tipsters I follow could greatly improve the way they record odds, most at least record what was available when they released their picks.
The Golf tipsters I follow do record at fair odds and with a bit of work and thanks to betfair, these can be beaten. This week Jason Kelly lost $375 and Betswot lost $370.
We start week 3 with the hope of chipping away at the early season 5 loss. Hopefully AFL kicks back into gear and the other services follow suit. I’m still optimistic that eventually this period will result in some profit and by the end of December I will be sitting on a very healthy half year profit.
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Total Profit for the week was $90.90
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $269,732.00
Bets Placed: 335
Half Payout: 3
Winning %: 44.4%
Total profit per day: $324,302.97 / 1476 = $219.71
Total Turnover: $14,612,475.37
Total ROI: 2.22%
ATP – SP $39,443.00 $(2,515.55) -6.4%
week profit/loss: -207.17
WTA – SP $24,837.00 $3,895.52 15.7%
week profit/loss: 5371.37
AFL H2H – SP $13,607.00 $(1,570.80) -11.5%
week profit/loss: 3163.70
AFL Line – SP $79,187.00 $(22,026.37) -27.8% 9 20 45.0%
week profit/loss: -6145.50
SP MLB $43,567.00 $(102.42) -0.2%
week profit/loss: 425.15
Rugby SP $8,128.00 $(3,090.50) -38.0%
week profit/loss: -1986.50
NRL SP $3,279.00 $1,263.10 38.5%
week profit/loss: -72.40
ClubGowi $21,799.00 $(1,732.60) -7.9%
week profit/loss: -3557.00
GOWI $57.00 $(57.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0
Diamond Edge $19,000.00 $588.50 3.1%
week profit/loss: 2938.50
PCG $13,875.00 $3,099.25 22.3%
week profit/loss: 905.75
Jason Kelly Golf $975.00 $(375.00) -38.5%
week profit/loss: -375.00
Betswot $1,978.00 $(598.00) -30.2%
week profit/loss: -370