Mar 19th – Mar 25th +$8,989.23

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  • BetPreviews Thomas

    Great post Steve, some serious turnover last week.

    You say you’re close to $3m for the year in turnover – when did you start your trading year?

    Also why do you think your NBA has dipped since December – how many seasons has this happened and what do you attribute it to?

    Some interesting stuff regarding Skeeve and TFA. Seems like you have some big decisions to make there. What has their numbers been like for the last few seasons?

    Thomas

  • Hi Thomas,
    I start in July. The NBA has had the same pattern for the past 3 years and I asked Jonno to look into again last week and he said it’s a clear pattern and to stop following. I always meant to but it seriously slipped my mind. I could make up anything to attribute it to but none of them would be right.

    Skeeve has not performed the last 3 season but did prior to that, that’s an easy one to get rid off.

    TFA has performed extraordinarily well since inception and this is his first poor season.

  • Tage Poulsen

    The TFA service is special and quite different from other
    services.

    As you know TFA has just been awarded the prize as the best
    Football Tipster at Secret Betting Club.

    This is remarkable as TFA is actually not a TIPPING service.
    It’s a collection of a large number of systems (52 at the moment) from which
    subscribers can build their own portfolio. Many of the systems are correlated
    in the sense that a team can appear on several systems.

    Therefore a vital issue is to decide which STAKING strategy
    to use on the portfolio.

    When Steve writes:

    This is by far the worst performance I have
    ever seen in a season by any tipster I have ever followed.

    he is blaming TFA for the performance. My opinion is, that the
    main explanation is the poor staking plan, Steve is using.

    OK, Graeme is not helping Steve with this problem as this
    mail shows:

    You do have the
    option of just applying an arbitrary max bet but I’ve done a quick piece of
    analysis for you on your portfolio of bets. As you will see, the returns from
    following these multiple bets are very high and therefore, any max bet you
    apply will just reduce your profit in the long-run. Your decision at the end of
    the day but based on all the analysis, any cap just reduces your profit. The
    best bets are the ones appearing on more systems and the fact you stake these
    the heaviest is the way to make the most money long-term I think. Plays the
    biggest stakes on the biggest edge.

    Apparently neither Graeme nor
    Steve possess the math skills needed to solve this staking problem.

    In a note called ‘Staking’
    attached to Graeme’s email to subscribers on October 2, 2013 I explain the math
    behind a staking plan as Steve’s and I show how extremely risky it is.

  • Hey Tage,
    Thanks for the post. I believe the SBC award was a massive surprise to Graeme. It shows the lack of good Soccer tipsters (something I am becoming more and more aware of) and also a few issues with the SBC.

    I also thing we could go on and on about staking plans and I did read your attachment. But historically Graeme was right, it would have been more profitable to bet everything, and yes, when they go bad like they have this season then I am going to get stung. It’s very easy to back fit a staking plan and assume that will continue to work in the future. As I mentioned in my reply to TFA post, there are millions of possible ways to create and stake the portfolio and in the short term some are going to look amazing and in this case yours would have saved me a lot of money, but another might have made me even more.

    How dare you belittle my maths skills. If there’s one thing I wont take on this blog its…. bahahaha, yeah your right, I do suck at math. Lets hope Graeme is not at the same level as me.

  • Stewboss

    I tweeted earlier today that I was going to come on here and write about balance and so here it is…

    I feel that the musings on here are overly negative, especially when it comes to football (I refuse to call it soccer). Take today’s post as an example….

    “Ok, so those soccer systems made a loss, lets look at the others. FB Elite lost 6 from 7 and the 7th was a lucky 90th minute goal. $3,360 lost this week and back to break even. Combo Football Investorturned the recent poor run around with $2,670 profit and ClubGOWIadded $2,100.”

    One sentence about Football Investor and that manages to combine a back-handed compliment with a negative reference to the recent bad run. What bad run is that? I think the Combo system has had one losing week in the last two months!!

    That’s some bad run Steve!!

    Contrast this with 11 whole paragraphs about Skeeve and TFA..

    See what I mean about balance?

    Not all of the services / models / sports will make money all of the time but it does seem like Football receives a regular bashing on here.

    What happens when the inevitable losing run hits the Combo system? Can we look forward to an increase in column inches then?

    Don’t get me wrong, this is a great blog. One of the best on the net but like I said before, the balance is skewed on the negative side.

    Rant Over!

    Stewboss

  • Completely agree with that Stewboss. I’ve noticed it myself and have tried to change my tact a few times. I’ve also been thinking about the weekly posts as it is a pretty pointless timeframe and a monthly post while also pointlesss might be better. But then I have to balance the amount of posts and the likelihood of people returning. Weekly posts have also become a routine for me.

    Football (I hate calling it Soccer to, but have other “football” bets and it would make it complicated) has sadly been one of two losing sports I have bet on this year. Currently down $50,000 with midweek bets to come.

    I guess it is also easier to criticise a tipster then praise as I expect to make a profit from them. I also know that I have sent new subscribers to every system I follow as I talk to a number of readers via email and know they have joined on my advice.

    I want this site to be for the guy who was like me at the start, not knowing where to start, who to trust or what to do. But if you look at the people who reply on here and twitter, it is usually the Tipsters themselves.

    In regards to my comments about the Combo system, I feel that while I could praise it a bit more (even though I do quite a bit), as it’s a weekly post I assume my readers are regulars and have read that it lost the past two weeks, that’s what i meant by “recent poor run”. If you do look back, I say how amazingly consistent and happy I am with the Combo system. But as mentioned, weekly results are pretty useless.

    I usually leave all the praise for the end of year review post which I know will be at the top of google if anyone types in Football Investor review. I feel this post is more likely to have new visitors read it then my regulars.

    I do appreciate you taking the time to bring my negativity to my attention, I have noticed it myself and would love to write more positive reviews. To be honest I have seen a dramatic increase in visitors since I started to “get mean”, and it made me realise that as sad as it is, negative comments get spread much more then positive ones. I will try harder to be more mindful of the Tipsters I follow as I know the hard work that is put in and do appreciate the chance I am given to make money from this game, but won’t ever shy away from saying what I think if I feel something is wrong.

    Thanks
    Steve

  • Tam the man

    You are quite the emotional bettor – can I ask why don’t you just stop following these tipsters? You clearly have lost all confidence in them. Or are you trying to do the world a service by pointing out their inadequacies to the world.

    From my own perspective I dropped Skeeve – I simply didn’t enjoy chasing odds. However from a TFA perspective my bank sits at 150% of what it was when I started in 2012. That is after a horrific season this year.

  • Hey Tam, welcome to the blog. I think my emotions are actually quite steady. But I need to write something once a week and don’t really take more then 10 minutes on it.

    I believe the emotional side is actually the most important and the least amount of time is spent on it.

    I have no problems beating Skeeve odds. I did lose faith in his service a long time ago and if I didn’t have the blog I would have dropped it. But I feel I need to see out the season to give my readers the full picture. Pretty stupid I know, but I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed 🙂

    I’ve never lost faith in TFA, i hate the results right now but I still have faith. I think that’s pretty clear to see.

  • Horse-trader

    For what it’s worth Stewboss it’s due to Steve’s blog that I am now on your waiting list for next season !

    Am interested in your issues with SBC Steve, I am off out now but will list mine when I get a chance.

  • I like the work they put into the magazine each month and like their general idea. But the forum is just potential tipsters trying to get a track record going. Not sure it’s worth the price for the magazine. I was hoping it would be filled with like minded people like me trying to find the best tipsters to follow.

    Other issue is that they only have a very small amount of tipsters in there and all very Englishcentric and the horse racing is of no use to me because of limited accounts.

    Not sure why Sportpunter isn’t in there, he would be a shoe in for gold medals.

  • Andrew

    Your negativity can be irritating because it reminds me of myself. I am sitting here wanting to smash my screen because of the GOWI results tonight.

    In order to calm myself down, I went on to the SBC forum and read Bside’s post about GOWI, in which he says consecutive losing months are perfectly normal. The level of analysis in Keith’s newsletters is incredible and I look forward to receiving it every day. It’s also important for me to remember that he “only” wins 54% of his bets. This is a huge number given the odds we are taking, but I think I’m expecting to win every bet, or at least not have any bad runs.

    I do wish the SBC community was more active, but I think it’s worth the relatively small annual fee. I joined because I was hoping to find decent tipsters and get recommendations from the forum, but that hasn’t happened. It seems like any service which doesn’t feature in SBC’s hall of fame is quickly rubbished. This happened recently when I asked if anyone knew more about Hejik’s results.

    Some of the recommended services are terrible, too. Pro Backer, a horse racing tipster, is shadily close to operating like a conman, yet received a fairly positive review from SBC.

  • Hey Andrew,

    haha, yep. We are simple creatures really. Even after all these years I still get pissed based on a single result.

    In regards to GOWI, i think I have been following for a few months now and the results are not very positive. As of today these are my results for his Soccer bets.
    $ 202,257.00 $ (519.60) -0.3%

    His Tennis and NFL have produced the only profits for me. I think if he was more selective in his approach to Soccer then it could be improved. Some writeups sound amazing after the result, but others sound terrible.