Mar 5th – Mar 11th +$1,914.63

I have no idea how I made a profit this week. Because Saturday is my biggest single betting day, I usually assume whatever the result on that day is a pretty good representation of the week. On the weekend the Soccer models lost about $20,000, so I assumed a massive loss. Luckily when looking back over the week the Sportpunter models as always came to the rescue. I don’t want to imagine the day these models stop performing, as it could be a disaster. The longer this goes on, the more I seriously entertain the thought of solely following Sportpunter (and Football Investor), sadly, these other tipsters just haven’t produced the results they have historically.

I said last week that I would try and not watch any games this week and that lasted to Saturday night, where I decided to stay up and watch the Soccer, which was a complete disaster. I was sitting on $95,000 and thought a few good wins would see the profit climb over $100,000 and I could have a little celebration. Then I woke up the next morning and looked at the Tennis that was going on and watched as Stepanek choked in the third to cost me a $15,000 profit. Such a painful few days and a reason that I really need to stop watching games.

We may as well start with the Soccer and after a good few weeks, it reverted back to the usual pattern of the season. Skeeve lost all his bets and a further $3,600 but apparently was due to another unlucky result and some woodwork getting in the way. Football Elite started terribly on Saturday but recovered a bit and ended down just $560. Combo Football Investor had it’s first negative week in a while and lost $960 and The Football Analyst went 0 from 22 and lost $6,000. ClubGOWI lost $183 but much more then that with the Soccer as he had a winning Golf bet. A heap of midweek bets tonight, which has not been kind at all this season.

Onto Tennis and as I sit here, Dolgopolov has just choked while serving for the match against Nadal. He is about to lose in a tiebreaker and it is so frustrating that these lower players just can’t finish off games. Tennis lost $2,300 this week although most bets were on very long odds. EDIT: A good example of how much shit I talk: Dolgopolov served an ace on match point which was challenged and was 1mm out, but he managed to win on his second serve. This win will be added to next weeks total.

AFL starts on Friday and I have never been more excited. I am also very nervous at the same time. Even though there has never been a big losing season the chance is always there and at the stakes I am now playing at, a bad run could see all this years profit taken away. I also love watching AFL, so I am going to try and do what I did last season and go for an hour long run every time a game is on.

The Rugby codes are also doing well for Sportpunter. Union made $800 and NRL had a great start with $2,500 profit. Hoping for a repeat of the NBL season for these two models. NBL continues its season of dominance and bookies have pretty much stopped taking bets now, I have just the one bookmaker who will take a bet and the odds are usually pretty poor. Not sure how this will work out next season. $5,100 profit. Onto the American sports and NHL has surged back over the last few weeks. $4,800 profit this week. NBA added a little more modest profit of $360.

Lastly Nics Picks finally had a win with Donaldson being the highest European player. $1,900 profit for the Golf. ClubGOWI also picked Reed at the start of the last round and he held on for the win.

Will never complain about a profitable week. Even though I can’t remember ever making a profit on midweek games, the chance is still there that I may just hit that $100,000 profit mark tonight. If that does happen, it will be a nice little achievement for me. Last season the highest profit level was $92,000 reached in early May. The highest level so far this season was reached last week at $95,000. With almost 4 months left in this my 4th year, and a historically amazing model set to start, I could not only smash through that elusive $100k mark, but maybe even hit $150,000. At the beginning of November I would have laughed so hard in your face that you would be covered in so much spittle you would drown if you had told me I would even be able to contemplate a result like that. Next weeks post shall be epic (as the kids say).

Total profit for the week was $1,914.63

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,782,006.34
Profit/Loss: $91,116.22
POT: 3.28%
Bets Placed: 4,801
Won: 1770
Lost: 2772
Half Payout: 23
Refunded: 236
Winning %: 39.0%
Total profit per day: $278,638.31 / 1350 = $206.39
Total Turnover: $12,531,835.87
Total ROI: 2.22%

ATP – SP $335,734.00 $1,763.07 0.5%
week profit/loss: -2299.39

AFL H2H – SP $31,795.00 $4,893.75 15.4%
week profit/loss: 0

AFL Line – SP $207,830.00 $41,317.17 19.9%
week profit/loss: 0

Rugby SP $9,858.00 $4,580.67 46.5%
week profit/loss: 788.45

NRL SP $4,626.00 $2,514.75 54.4%
week profit/loss: 2514.75

FB Elite $195,000.00 $3,779.00 1.9%
week profit/loss: -560

Skeeve $92,098.00 $(6,467.70) -7.0%
week profit/loss: -3600

Combo FI $108,715.00 $16,132.88 14.8%
week profit/loss: -960

TFA $515,126.00 $(34,337.08) -6.66%
week profit/loss: -6000

ClubGowi $179,891.00 $6,999.80 3.9%
week profit/loss: -183.80

NP Win $20,629.34 $(3,611.34) -17.5%
week profit/loss: 1900

NHL Totals $259,287.00 $4,618.43 1.8%
week profit/loss: 4835.83

NBL Totals $96,924.00 $31,162.64 32.2%
week profit/loss: 3501.75

NBL Line $88,451.00 $28,560.13 32.3%
week profit/loss: 1616.46

NBA Totals $139,310.00 $2,032.51 1.5%
week profit/loss: 1119.72

NBA H2H $88,614.00 $7,708.87 8.7%
week profit/loss: -759.14

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  • Mark Maleny

    Just wondering how you won on the NRL? The big line bets were Canterbury, Newcastle, Cowboys all losers, and H2H Canterbury and Newcastle both losers. Some small winners but not enough to cover the losses.

  • Hi Mark, I’m betting H2H only. H2H has been the only positive model.

    The bets were on









  • Mark Maleny

    Thanks, I see where I went wrong, I used the old ratings not the player based ones. doh!

  • Ouch, at least you figured it out early. Hopefully this new player based model is close to the AFL one

  • Vidar

    Steve, when mentioning the player based model for AFL: I see that you follow H2H- and Line-model for the AFL, but is it the player based model or the “regular” model?

  • Hey Vidar, I use the player based model.

  • Stewboss

    “The longer this goes on, the more I seriously entertain the thought of solely following Sportpunter, sadly, these other tipsters just haven’t produced the results they have historically.”

    Present company excepted of course!

  • I need to update the blog post, I didn’t mean to stick you in with all the other misfits 🙂