May 1st – May 7th -$29,356.68

Just 7 days ago, things were looking so good. I had hit some major milestones, I had 3 straight months of amazing results and things were going awesome. I had forgot what a bitch betting could be. But it decided to remind me over this weekend. The total profit had reached $210,000 before the carnage begun. Friday night saw the single biggest bet of my life go down in the last minute. From that moment, I knew this week was going to be a disaster. How bad it ended, I could not of even imagined.

As mentioned on my weekend post. I lost close to $12,000 on the Friday night AFL bet. The other matches were much smaller bets and I ended the week with a loss of $13,817. I could have stomached that if it was the only negative for the week, but that wasn’t to be.

Tennis lost $3,000 and MLB totals lost $3,100. These were counteracted by a profit for OTP NRL of $350 and a massive MLB H2H week of $10,500 profit. Once again, if this was the end of it, I would have been satisfied with the weekly results. But there was much worse to come.

SOCCER, SOCCER, SOCCER. I thought I was over this, but nope, it came back to bite me on the arse. $20,344 lost over the weekend. XX Draws sucked with a loss of $5,100. FB Elite continued its ongoing suckiness and added another $5,800 loss. Never have I seen a tipster perform so badly. Combo FI lost $2,300 and the real horrible model this week was TFA Euro, losing $9,000.

Losing $30,000 over 3 days is a bit surreal. That’s not far off the average wage here, and I gave it to the bookies in the space of 72 hours. I know I was due a correction as the profit had made an incredible climb this year. I’m hoping that it was just a blip and over the next few weeks I can look back and laugh at the biggest weekly loss I have suffered. But I’m not feeling very confident at the moment, so we will need to see what happens next week.

Just going to forget about this shit week and look forward to another opportunity next week to reclaim that $200,000 mark.

Total loss for the week was $29,356.68

Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $3,344,211.91
Profit/Loss: $59,483.77
POT: 1.78%

Bets Placed: 5,232
Won: 2,144
Lost: 2,947
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 139
Winning %: 42.1%

Profit per day: $175,567.49 / 1042 = $168.49

AFL H2H – SP $58,680.00 $7,137.78 12.2%
week profit/loss: -2293.50

AFL Line – SP $307,215.00 $(7,566.05) -2.5%
week profit/loss: -11524.29

ATP – SP $411,650.00 $13,106.63 3.2%
week profit/loss: -2958.51

OTP NRL $22,500.00 $(1,008.25) -4.5%
week profit/loss: 368.75

MLB H2H $58,543.00 $13,684.57 23.4%
week profit/loss: 10,517.74

MLB Totals $92,647.00 $5,325.65 5.7%
week profit/loss: -3124.37

XX Draws $65,000.00 $(10,200.00) -15.7%
week profit/loss: -195

XX Draws Under $65,000.00 $(1,900.00) -2.9%
week profit/loss: 1103.50

XX Extended $141,500.00 $13,836.00 9.8%
week profit/loss: -3500

XX Extended Under $141,194.00 $1,897.00 1.3%
week profit/loss: -2510

FB Elite $290,819.00 $(32,014.97) -11.0%
week profit/loss: -5860

Skeeve $148,919.00 $(1,833.64) -1.2%
week profit/loss: 0

Combo FI $241,229.00 $16,064.50 6.7%
week profit/loss: -2286

6-22 $73,315.00 $7,766.75 10.6%
week profit/loss: 0

7-21 $117,485.00 $10,867.00 9.2%
week profit/loss: 952.50

7-22 $49,185.00 $4,625.25 9.4%
week profit/loss: 0

8-21 $57,125.00 $9,032.88 15.8%
week profit/loss: 952.50

8-22 $31,513.00 $1,584.13 5.0%
week profit/loss: 0

E1-E7 $70,580.00 $(535.99) -0.8%
week profit/loss: -3000

E2-E6 $80,662.00 $3,204.89 4.0%
week profit/loss: -3000

E2-E7 $41,250.00 $7,412.26 18.0%
week profit/loss: -1875

E3-E6 $29,625.00 $1,701.75 5.7%
week profit/loss: -750

E3-E7 $16,500.00 $4,173.75 25.3%
week profit/loss: -375

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  • Danny

    Enjoyed the article about the racing, it’s the same here in the UK it’s all a closed shop. And not just racing – look at how closely all the big bookmakers are involved with soccer sponsorship. Like racing they are happy to bay big bucks for information to protect their betting advantage.

    However we as punters do have one big advantage in that we don’t have to bet lol. But seriously we can pick our fights and avoid getting sucked into the big betting races/matches the bookies with their marketing machines try to entice us into. As you have largely shown, by not having opinions and managing betting sizes ruthlessly it is still possible to prosper.

    Yes it had been a horrible week but your POT of 2.27% still looks fantastic. If you can keep it around the 2% mark and manage betting amounts well then you will have huge capital growth.

    If it was me I would pare back soccer a lot for next season and bet on golf, more tennis and snooker as I think the margins could be a lot better.

    You are still doing so well and that is the main thing, it’s been a great run and the reverse would be pretty normal with the $10k single loss stripped out. And maybe it wasn’t so bad you lost, had you won you might have bet $20K and ended up on a sick run. Maybe it was needed, weird though that sounds.

  • admin

    Thanks Danny, It’s funny to see the excuses they come up with to accept these sponsors. The one I hear a lot is that it helps the integrity of the sport by allowing the bookmakers to work with the governing bodies to find fixed games and all that rubbish. Why can’t they just admit it is because they are willing to pay the most to become sponsors. The more they blur the lines between the teams and the bookmakers, the worse it is going to get.

    I think your right when you say we should be betting the smaller markets and the ones the bookies don’t really want us to bet into, the issue then becomes closed and limited accounts.

    2% is at the lower end of what I hopped for, I was thinking 2-5% was what I should expect, so it is within my expectations, but just barely. But that does include lots of errors that I have slowly gotten rid of, the portfolio still isn’t perfect yet and I will be making changes to the soccer section as you suggested.

    I’m very interested in adding golf, but have tried it before without success. Can you recommend any good tipsters?

    I know what you mean when you say “it was needed”. Still wish it never happened. haha.

    Thanks again for your comments.

  • Pawn

    Hi there,

    Loosing such amount in one single week would lead me to think that you have been betting too much for your total bank. How can you lose 15% of your total profit in one single week ? And the one match with a 10.000 bet corresponds to about 5% of the total profit. Too much, imho…

    Better luck next week!

  • admin

    Hi, That was by far an outlier bet, The average bet size is $640. AFL bets are higher as I have more confidence in them and am using a moving bank. 5% of my bank is still within what most professionals say is the most to have on any one bet. But yes, it was a very large bet.

    It was just one of those weeks where every model performed very badly, these weeks happen. I’m not expecting it to happen this badly any time soon again, but it could happen again this week.

    Just need to look long term and understand it was a bump in the road.