May 25th – May 31st +$2,152.71

A lot of betting for a small gain this week. This morning Baseball was in profit but after 2 losses in the 9th it has produced a negative result for the week. AFL had it’s first positive week in a month, with around $3,800 profit. A small $800 profit from the French open this week. All NRL bets lost but I managed to pick a perfect round in my tipping comp, wish I had just placed the $1,300 loss on that accumulator.

Formbet Golf had another losing week and it looks like that’s it for me and the Golf. Sean has left Formbet so I will stop betting the Golf. A shame as it was in a massive negative and I was hoping for it to get back into positive by the end of the year. A total loss of $8,000. I guess another lesson learned. Golf will have massive swings and long losing runs.

Formbet racing had a $1,900 profit for the week but once again I missed some winners. Hopefully from the new month the bot will be running perfect and my figures will line up with the official Formbet figures. I had a talk with Dave and my percentages for all the different models seemed to be off, I have addressed this issue and hope everything works out well from here in.

A really poor month, bring on June. Continuing with my mantra from last week. I HOPE ALL MODELS PERFORM HORRIBLY IN JUNE. :)

Total profit for the week was $2,153.71

Baseball $305,317.01 $15,639.04 5.1%
Week profit/loss: -2593.26

Baseball Line $367,315.00 $29,511.56 8.0%
Week profit/loss: 479.10

AFL $50,952.00 $(2,651.69) -5.2%
Week profit/loss: 1466.10

AFL line $101,264.00 $7,093.58 7.0%
Week profit/loss: 2952

AFL Totals $67,206.00 $(1,922.00) -2.9%
Week profit/loss: -650.50

Tennis – ATP $297,348.00 $10,495.60 3.5%
Week profit/loss: 1671.18

WTA – Tennis $287,288.00 $(3,720.68) -1.3%
Week profit/loss: -880.91

NRL $21,770.00 $(6,212.69) -28.5%
Week profit/loss: -1298

Golf $15,677.00 $(7,935.25) -50.6%
Week profit/loss: -850

Formbet $71,057.00 $(6,089.00) -8.6%
Week profit/loss: 1858

Stats
Total bet amount: $2,733,012.37
Profit/Loss: $17,648.07
POT: 0.6%

Bets Placed: 6,887
Won: 2,761
Lost: 3,876
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 247
Winning %: 41.6%

Profit per day: 17,648.07 / 335 = $52.68

30. May 2011 by admin
Categories: update | 6 comments

  • Sean Kelly

    Hi Steve,

    Sorry to leave formbet…going forward I will be advising via my own site now if you ever interested. Just testing the waters this week with the site and come next week I will be fully up and running. For now no subscription or cost, again I will have a write up on this soon.

    http://www.golf4dough.com

    I will be posting european selections and pgatour selections each week.

    If you interested feel free to visit.

    Again apologies for leaving formbet.

    regards

    Sean

  • admin

    Sean, no need to apologise. Good luck with the new site. I’ll follow the picks this week but will need to reasses my golf betting this month. Thanks for the link to the new site.

  • Brett Dvoracek

    Mate, pay a coder, or code this yourself. You probably would have saved yourself a lot of money earlier on if you had done this:

    Record the line and/or price (for straight up betting) you took a bet at, and compare it to the closing line and/or price. Record the proportion of the time the line moved for/against you, and the magnitude of that move. The ‘Beat the Closing Line’ evaluation method (BTCL).

    Do this for every selection service. Figure out the standard deviation of movement for the closing line in every sport/market you’re into. Calculate the statistical probability of selection service X in having a long term edge against the closing line (calculate the z score).

    Bet peanuts / shadow bet (just to generate records to analyze) until the selection system goes ‘live’ once you have a z score worth considering (>2).

    This way, you wouldn’t have to subjectively ‘reassess’ anything (as I don’t really know what other hard statistical data you are going to use to make decisions about keeping or dropping a service.)

    Checking the proportion of how often a customer beats the closing line is how books flag their own customers. You should be capitalizing upon this method to weed out inferior selection services.

    Right now, you’re floundering in the dark with no hard data to help you out apart from simple ROI% performance.

    Simple ROI% performance can be a poor indicator and can (and will) cloud true long term performance.

  • admin

    Brett,
    I am still learning a hell of a lot of lessons each and every week. Your comments always give me something to thing about. So thanks for taking the time to post.

    I have managed to find past closing lines for all American sports via SBR, but cant find anything for Tennis or Australian sports. Do you have any resources you use for these?

    There are a few issues with other bets, for example with Formbet, the bot places bets 30seconds before the race off, so I can’t compare lines, The success would need to be judged by ROI alone.

    My spreadsheet has all the odds I have got, so once i get the closing lines it won’t be too difficult to compare. As I will probably do this manually, is there a time limit you can recommend? Would a week sample from each month for the last 3 months give me a valid result?

    Cheers
    Steve

  • http://formbet.co.uk Dave McAuley

    Hi Steve

    Hope you are finding AutoBotV2 as profitable as I have the last few days since it was released after months of work and research…huge difference to ROI now with more selectivity with the V% value filtering….give me a shout if you have any questions about anything…now the percentage staking has been sorted out and re-balanced correctly you should notice a marked difference. Would suggest getting a UK-based VPS though if you do not have one already for the automation.

    Don’t worry about the golf, I bet on golf professionally for quite a few years so I am sure you will see a turnaround if you stick with it – when I was doing it myself I managed to get some decent winners like Charley Hoffman last back end at 150/1 and have also picked out decent winners when I have put up a rare pick like Luke Donald at 50/1 this season for the Matchplay earlier in the season. I will be analysing the European Tour and US Tour events each week using my own ratings which have been used in the past to arrive at selections.

    Give me a shout if you have any further questions

    Dave

  • admin

    Hi Dave,

    Yep, had a nice few days with it so far, up around $6000 for the week. Great stuff. Really appreciate all the work you put into it. With the VPS, I haven’t had a real issue with the computer I have running for it, so will stick with that for now, seems to be working fine.

    I might lower my bets with Golf, $100 for each player might be a little high with such a low strikerate, It wouldn’t be an issue if I wasn’t already $8k down, but im at a stage at the moment where I want to protect my bank a bit more and get through this rough period.

    Cheers again for taking the time to post.
    Steve