Oct 8th – Oct 14th -$13,233.69

[dropcap]B[/dropcap]oy did we have some fun on twitter over the weekend. I’m sure anyone who does follow me on twitter is eagerly awaiting today’s post. I had my first bona fide case of an internet troll this week. I was rather disappointed in my behavior to be honest, as normally I would have just laughed and not even replied, but I had to sit in front of my computer all day placing bets on the horses and I was a little bored. So I thought I would have some fun. But this guy clearly had no life and was relentless and then when threats get involved, I know to shut that down pretty quickly these days. He was blocked and reported. The amusing thing is even today he is still going and I get snippets of the conversation from others I still follow defending me.

For the people who missed it, I’ll give a run down of what happened. Some guy who runs his own service on Twitter starting saying I was a fraud and everything I write is made up. He was going on about how he has had all his accounts closed down and it’s impossible for me to still be betting if I was really betting as big as I said. Apparently without showing betslips of every single bet on twitter, I was therefore lying and a fraud. This amused me immensely. To think anyone would question me writing and keeping track of fake bets over the past 4 and a half years to big note myself really tickled my ribs. It was also strange as there were actual random posts in my twitter image feed of exact bets I had mentioned on the blog. What’s even more amusing is that I would spent over $30,000 in subscription fees since I started so I could write this blog that has no advertising on it.

I directed this slow witted fella to my blog, in the hopes he would read some content and then apologise. Nope. He said he would pay me if I showed him betslips. Not wanting to take money off someone who would clearly need it, I instead directed him to give $200 to charity and I would happily give him whatever he wanted. He was non stop about me having to post a betslip before he would pay. After a few hours I grew bored and did produce the betslip. I then asked him to donate to charity. But that wasn’t enough for this guy, I needed to post an image of every single bet I had placed ever.. hahaha. This guy clearly had no idea about maths, so I did some for him. Showing that it would take me 125 hours to take screenshots and post just the last 12 months worth of bets.

This poor chap keeps getting his accounts closed down and has no idea why, he even apparently has an ex bookie employee working with him and he too gets banned. He just can’t fathom that accounts can stay open. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m the first to call out bookies who limit me and it’s damn hard work to place my AFL bets each season. I have every bookie open x 2 and there are some I just don’t even bother with. I have got it down to a fine art as I am sure many other Sportpunter AFL subscribers have also done. I factor in losing about 1 or 2 accounts a season. Some bookies will just close your account, others will set a certain limit and if you get off to a bad start and combine that with betting on another sport then some bookies will happily take your bets all season. I would say this year was actually easier then last year to get matched. I was lucky enough to find a few bookies with higher limits who seemed happy to take some bets. I won’t give away my secrets as it is a dog eat dog world for Sportpunter AFL clients.

Now this slimy weasel still has no idea how he can keep getting limited from bookies. I decided to have a look at his service and twitter feed. I could not believe how dumb this guy was. I don’t even mean dumb like your average dumb, I mean spectacularly dumb. Just the other week I posted an article explaining how much effort bookies put into tracking accounts. There is a whole bit about how bookies use social media to track customers. But this dim witted individual continues to post betslips from the new accounts he has created, pretty much saying “Hello sportbook, it’s your number 1 dumbarse customer here just letting you know I have another account open, all you need to do is look at the bet receipt number and ban me again “. It also looks like he uses the exact same phone for all accounts and the same computer. Now, we can probably forgive him for this, he clearly has some sort of slow witted type syndrome. But then I had a look at his so called service. What is the first bet I saw advised for members:

auspicksisascam

He actually advised his members to bet on a clearly palpable line. This is when a bookmaker has made a clear error in the odds quoted and in their terms and conditions these bets will be cancelled. This absolute idiot bet on a palpable line, which is on par with calling up Ladbrokes and saying “YO HOMY, IT ME, GOT ME NEW ACCOUNT YO, I FOOL YOU TWICE, YOU AINT FOOL ME“, I’ve actually had to convert that as best I could, as his actual speaking and grammar are much worse then that. What’s worse is that anyone who follows him and tried to place this bet has now had their accounts marked for closure too. Even worse, he would have added this bet as a 26 unit win to his overall record, but luckily there were some members who called him out on it. Who knows how many of these fake lines are hidden away in his records. I don’t even think Australia’s number 1 fraudster tipping service betjam.com.au would be so dodgy to do that.

Why I don’t post betslips and ego type stuff.

Now onto why I don’t post betslips or other things morons like this guy think winning gamblers need to do. I think Jonno from Sportpunter put it best. I was actually surprised at how well said his tweet was.

He sums up my stance in less then 140 characters. I see no point in big mouthing myself by showing the fancy car, the house on the beach and so on. How will that help my readers get better with their betting? This blog was started just for me to document my journey, I never asked anyone to come here and read what I write, but I also am very happy that many do and I get to talk with many of them and both teach and learn at the same time.

Idiots like this twitter troll actually believe the adverting the bookies shove down our throats. The ones where you place a bet and win and shout the bar, order some strippers to your hotel room and drink dom perignon off their breasts. This is the image bookies want to propagate as losing bettors flock to this dream. Do you want to know what it’s really like being a successful punter? IT’S SOOOOOO BORING and so much less glamorous then you think. All it is, is me sat in front of a computer placing bets, that’s it. A couple of spreadsheets open, some odds comparison sites open and a warm cup of green tea next to me. Now imagine how those ads would go over with the masses.

I admit I have posted some ego type stuff (my holidays, flying first class and so on), but that was more to tell my readers of my love of travel and how I used credit cards to get frequent flyer points. But for me it isn’t about material stuff, yes I have the fancy sports car (which I’m selling soon as a baby seat is illegal in it), I’ve lived in some amazing places, I’ve been privileged to experience many things and meet many people. My life has been helped along by the profit I have made. But I’m also a minimalist and really don’t understand this “put everything on credit” culture we live in. As I’ve grown up, I realised that material things are meaningless, the truly priceless stuff are our friends and family and time itself. Each of us value things differently. This poor lost soul hasn’t the capacity to see past the flashy lights.

So that’s one reason. My boasting doesn’t help you and only goes to help propagate a myth about gambling. It would also make me look like a massive dick.

The main reason I don’t post betslips was mentioned above. Most of my bets now have to be placed with bowler accounts and if I posted even 1 image from an account that wasn’t mine, the bookies would have that account shutdown before I had time to finish a fart. If you notice any bet slips I do post, they are always from bookies known for not closing accounts (Betfair, Pinnacle, so on).

At least this little experience gave me some good blogging material and taught me a valuable lesson. Do not get involved with internet trolls. My total posts on twitter doubled in just 1 day because of this fool. The only potentially good thing was that about 50 people who followed him then followed me, I hope a few of them are reading this and then also read over the site. I would advise them to be very careful following this muppets service, as he clearly has no idea what he is doing. Not only does my service produce spectacular results, it also teaches you everything you need to know to keep your accounts open and make a long term profit betting.

To sum it up in a few words: Jealousy is a curse.

Onto this weeks results

Normal programming has now resumed and I will go over this weeks results. Another terrible week and one exacerbated by yet again missing a massive golf win. I don’t know how I can continue to do it, I would say this year I have missed less then 10 bets, and two have resulted in me missing $20,000 profit. One I could do nothing about as I never received an email. But this one was nothing but my fault.

As you know I follow Frazzled tips over at the BetSWOT website. In the first week of following the service he picked a winner. Since then he has been on a quiet run. Until this week where he picked Sang Moon Bae at 150/1. Now let me explain the lengths I go to to make sure I can get these bets on. I follow betswot on twitter and have notifications set to yes, so every time they tweet, my phone lights up like a christmas tree, I also follow their RSS feed which updates me as soon as an article is up. I saw the tweet for the European tour and placed those bets. The vast majority of the time odds quoted can be matched and the longer odds bets can easily be beaten on Betfair. Now we had just bought little Ollie home and sadly my attention was elsewhere when the tweet went up. Lets just say my mind was not really interested in betting and more keen on keeping this little creature alive. By the time I saw the article, the first round was winding up and Bae was in 4th. I skyped my mate and said, “I bet you this guy wins”. We know the rest. I would have won at least $11,000 and probably more and that would have helped massively in a week like this. It would have moved my golf betting for the year into profit. All I can do is move on, I would happily pay another $11,000 for Ollie and am just happy he is home and healthy. What I can say is that Frazzled has proved himself to be one of the best free golf tipsters on the net. I believe there was a paid for service, but could not find it on the site. I would happily pay for his picks.

Onto the other bets this week and NHL totals started with a small $250 win. The MLB season is winding up and the SP totals lost $830. NFL Totals added a nice $3000 profit. This week also saw the start of the NBL season, and after last years amazing results, I decided to up my banks. Maybe that was not a good idea. I lost a massive $11,000 on Round 1. This was a mirror image of last years start, so I’ll be ecstatic if it follows that pattern.

ClubGOWI broke even, PCG lost $2,250 and the Golf lost $1,000 (I’m still cut up about this).

Only a few Soccer tipsters had bets as it was Internationals week. TFA made $2,100. Winabobatoo service lost $1,100 and the Combo Football Investor bets lost $2,130. You will also notice a new bet type in the results named “odds pushed out”. With numerous service advising the same bet on lower league games, the price on the opposing team moves out massively. I feel the bookies would rarely get the starting odds 20% wrong, so happily back the opposite side when the odds are 20% better then the starting price. It’s all about value in this game.

So that’s it for a very interesting week for me. My total loss for year 5 is now at that really uncomfortable level. I’ve never really been down much more then this in any given season, so not sure how I will react if it keeps heading towards -$100k. Just gotto hope my trust in these services is rewarded. I’ll also make sure to add even more levels of reminders so I never ever miss another Golf bet every again.

By joining the Daily25 email list, you will get updates and insights into how I am doing, what tools I use, the services I recommend, and what is happening in the gambling industry.

Total Loss for the week was $4,648.67

Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $1,762,952.00
Profit/Loss: -$48,730.67
POT: -2.76%
Bets Placed: 2666
Won: 991
Lost: 1272
Half Payout: 25
Refunded: 378
Winning %: 43.8%
Total profit per day: $298,794.17 / 1567 = $190.67
Total Turnover: $16,105,695.37
Total ROI: 1.86%

NBL Totals $3,617.00 $(3,617.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -3617

NBL Line $7,463.00 $(7,463.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -7463

SP MLB $252,327.00 $9,385.43 3.7%
week profit/loss: -832.50

NFL Totals $45,890.00 $4,507.83
week profit/loss: 3040.61

NHL Totals $7,740.00 $248.20 3.2%
week profit/loss: 248.20

ClubGowi $228,624.00 $4,925.96 2.2%
week profit/loss: 105

GOWI $4,182.00 $269.00 6.4%
week profit/loss: 0

Diamond Edge $149,000.00 $1,967.50 1.3%
week profit/loss: 0

PCG $121,867.00 $(6,486.21) -5.3%
week profit/loss: -2250

Jason Kelly Golf $6,716.00 $(5,376.00) -80.0%
week profit/loss: -725

Betswot $7,113.00 $(5,358.00) -75.3%
week profit/loss: -275

FB Elite $10,250.00 $1,467.50 14.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Football Value $11,000.00 $(1,325.00) -12.0%
week profit/loss: 0

TFA 21 $48,687.00 $(4,600.00) -9.4%
week profit/loss: 450

TFA 41 $54,500.00 $(3,918.50) -7.2%
week profit/loss: 310

6-21-31 $28,687.00 $(649.50) -2.3%
week profit/loss: 950

D1-D6 $14,500.00 $(915.00) -6.3%
week profit/loss: 420

E1-E6 $1,500.00 $2,330.00 155.3%
week profit/loss: 0

Mike Lindley $13,500.00 $(1,945.00) -14.4%
week profit/loss: -1500

WINABOBATOO $58,500.00 $(9,008.00) -15.4%
week profit/loss: 430

FBI combo $24,500.00 $7,702.00 31.4%
week profit/loss:-2130

Odds pushed out $4,000.00 $10.00 0.3%
week profit/loss: 10

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  • Luke Anders

    I would love to know the ways you get around having accounts banned. My
    stakes are not crazy big, I do all the things that are supposed to help
    keep me under the radar and am now completely limited/heavily restricted
    with 5 agencies. Only one of these accounts my POT was amazing, the
    other 4 accounts were only marginally profitable, I wasn’t arbing or
    anything like that. It really pisses me off!

  • Hey Luke,
    I don’t think I’ve ever said I’ve managed to keep all my accounts open. Some books you have no chance, if you win you’re banned. Some books just limit, others there are tricks to get around them. Testing all these things out cost me a few accounts, but now I am pretty stable. I do lose an account here and there, but it’s not as bad as what is portrayed.

    People want to be given everything for free these days without doing any work for themselves. I’ve given more then enough advice on how to get around it, you need to take the time to read the articles, figure out what they are saying and then test, test, test all your assumptions.

    But one things for sure, if you keep doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result then that’s a pretty apt description of insanity.

    I can’t spoon feed people, cause everything I write is scrutinised by the bookies. If I tell you trick A, tomorrow it wont work. Why would I give up something as valuable to me as open accounts.

    People are too lazy these days and bookies love that.

    Do the work, and you will be rewarded. It’s as simple as that.

  • Luke Anders

    Will do. The grind is tougher when you’re starting off with a much smaller bank, but I’ll get there eventually!

  • David C.

    Hi Steve,

    Good to know that little Ollie is already at home. Enjoy your new fatherhood!

    I have a question for you regarding Frazzled, if I may. What bank size in term of points do you advise for following him, based on his worse drawdown, strike rate, etc.?

    Thanks in advance and cheers from Barcelona.

  • Thanks David,
    He is doing great. Holding him while I reply to you.
    I’ve only been following for about 5 months. I also only bet the straight win, not EW (can match win odds, but not place odds). With golf when the average odds are so big you will have very very big drawdowns. I’ve set aside a 200 point bank.
    I think this should be big enough, but who knows.
    If you were to bet EW then you might give some value back but it will smooth out variance massively. Then a 100-150 point bank would be pretty safe.

  • David C.

    Yes, I realized that the strike rate would be significatly lower than in other sports, more like horse racing I guess. Thanks very much for your advice, Steve. I will be watching him for some time and then probably go with the 200 points as you suggested… and be prepared for a roller-coaster.
    Cheers.

  • Luke

    Hi Steve,

    I hope you will ask some questions to Tom from PCG soon. I have no idea how CFL selection (Winnipeg – Edmonton) odds could be recorded as 1.95 when max was 1.8 (I deducted this odds from his daily summary). It’s not just one incident. The best solution in my opinion: he could put available odds with O/U and hadicaps selections as it is with moneylines. Recording just Pinnacle odds would be other factor which could improve his service quality.

  • Patty M

    Just curious, what were your POT on these accounts? I’ve been limited with a 10% POT

  • Luke Anders

    In tracking my bets I haven’t noted which agencies they were with in the past, so can’t answer that with any certainy. When I first started taking things more seriously I didn’t see the point in it, but that was before I knew some of these agencies actually restricted/banned customers. So it’s something I’m going to start doing I think. Lux would have been huge POT, I’m thinking in excess of 100%, so I was restricted really quickly. Mind you, I’d say less than 5% of my bank was bet through lux at the time, it just so happened that all my luck seemed to occur in the bets I was placing with them. Sportsbet account was barely profitable, maybe 2%, to the point I could not understand why I on earth they’d restrict me. They were the first to do so, and at the time I was flattered, but in shock. Ladbrokes group I’m not sure, I’m guessing in the region of 5%, but I had an account with them for a number of years before they decided to restrict me.