Errors never cease

EDIT: Ok, calm down everybody, nothing to see here. Looks like one of Hawthorns main players has been ruled out and the line came back in. I have taken a bet on the other side to even out the wrong bet for a loss of $500, but if the game ends up a 15 point win to Hawthorn I will win both Essendon +15.5 and Hawthorn -14.5. I have also now placed the correct bets on Hawthorn so have pledged my allegiance to them tonight and removed that ugly Essendon banner and song I had at the bottom of this post. COME ON HAWKS.

Now that I have done this there is no doubt Essendon win easily.

———————written 7 hours earlier———————————-

After almost 4 years of placing bets, I have made a handful of errors. Sometimes I accidentally bet on the wrong team or at the wrong odds. Usually it can be fixed easily and I take a small loss by backing the correct side. These are usually due to not paying attention or if I bet at a bookmaker I am not familiar with that has a different layout to the majority of books.

Today was very different for many reasons. The Sportpunter AFL model is an amazing model. The vast majority of my profit has come from this one model. Because it is so good it is always a mad rush to get the bets on as the line for every game will move quickly. A line of say +15.5 will move to +11.5 in the space of 30 seconds if there is a suggested bet. The tips are released all at once at 11am on Friday. There are usually 8 or 9 games and on average about 3 or 4 will have large bets. It is an absolute scramble to get bets on with bookmakers moving lines in seconds and taking games off the board as soon as subscribers start backing these. The bookies are well aware of the Sportpunter scramble and have got very good at making sure they do not get hit too hard.

Today was like any other, I spent the previous hour finding the best odds and lines and the second and third best lines. I had everything in my spreadsheet ready to go. As 11 am ticked over, I updated the spreadsheet and saw two massive bets on the first two games. I quickly went off and bet the first game. $10,000 on Essendon +15.5. When I came back to the spreadsheet I realised my error. The probability column had not updated all the way down and was using the probabilities from the match last night. Instead of a $10,000 bet on Essendon, the real bet was $7,500 on Hawthorn. By this time the line had moved from +15.5 to +19.5 and if I was to try and back the other side, I had the very real risk of middling and losing both bets. I made sure that the other bets were right before placing them which resulted in taking more time and getting worse lines.

So now I just have to take this hit and hope variance is in my favour. If Hawthorn cover the line, what should have been a $7,000 profit will instead be a $10,000 loss. A $17,000 swing. On the rare chance the Sportpunter model is incorrect it will instead be a $17,000 swing in my favour. But these huge bets are the biggest overlays and Sportpunters real bread and butter, so I do not like my chances.

27. March 2014 by admin
Categories: news | 5 comments

Mar 19th – Mar 25th +$8,989.23

This period is going to throw up some really crazy weeks until the Soccer season ends in about 6 weeks. We now have every sport playing at the same time and the amount bet per week has almost doubled. Saturdays alone will have over $100,000 worth of bets. This week also saw the total bet for the year tick over the $3 million mark. It was a very scary 7 days as we had the usual midweek disaster with the Soccer followed by a $11,000 loss in the AFL which had me sitting on $58,000 profit. A massive draw down as just 4 days earlier I was sitting on $90,000. Luckily AFL made most of that loss back and performed in other areas. This week we also saw a lot of emotion expressed in emails from a few tipsters. The psychology behind gambling is a massive factor in betting and is what stops a lot of people from making a profit. I will try and talk more about this in the coming weeks.

Lets address the two emails I received this week from both Skeeve and Graeme at TFA. Another losing week for Skeeve as it is clear he is now chasing losses to try and end the season in profit. A $3,500 loss for the week. Skeeve pretty much promised that he would get me into profit before he kicked me off his service next year, as that is highly unlikely now does that mean I get a full refund (minus my bloggers discount)? What about the losses over all these years? do I get them refunded? Now off course I’m joking and fully understand the risks involved with following any tipster, but when a tipsters ego is so big he pretty much promises you will be in profit instead of saying that maybe they aren’t as good as they think they are then the losses you make with them hurt that little bit more. He then has the audacity to defend his poor form by saying that if we had just bet differently then we would have made massive profits.

But wait, how come I’m one of the most succesful services for the current season participating in Cassini’s friendly tipster league, with a +15 point profit at a 15% ROI? Does Cassini live in some sort of a parallel universe? This season, fortunately for him – yes, he does. The thing is that Cassini is recording my bets as one-point flate-stake singles (and ignoring the Skrill South parts of the doubles because of odds-recording issues). With so many half-won-half-lost double bets this season, it’s easy to understand what makes the difference.

This is classic Skeeve and has been the same story ever since I started following him. After losing a heap on midweek games, he decides to stop betting them, then certain type of AH bets, then certain leagues, all only after losing clients money. The big one for next season is that there will be no bets until December or January. What subscribers are going to end up with is a very small sample of bets and a massive amount of variance. They are either going to make a hell of a lot or lose even more. Skeeve picks is a perfect name for the service as Skeeve seems to pick and choose which strategy he will go with based on what amounts to very small sample sizes and runs that may mean nothing in the longterm.

Onto Graeme and his TFA email. TFA had another terrible midweek and I actually made a profit on Saturday, but was still down $5,100 for the week. This is by far the worst performance I have ever seen in a season by any tipster I have ever followed. The fact that I had so much faith in the TFA system that I made it the cornerstone of my portfolio just adds to the pain I have felt all season long. Saturday was salvaged by a big win on Ipswich and Graeme almost did not follow his own bets.

I said this on Twitter but I nearly didn’t back Ipswich on Saturday. That would have been the first bet I’ve missed in 4 seasons and ultimately, I suspect if I had missed that bet, I would have given up betting for the season and maybe forever.

I have been reading these sort of comments for a while from Graeme and they clearly show that he has never been through a bad run and has no idea how to deal with it. I’ve been there, done that and bought the shirt many times. When the guy you are paying to make you a profit has no faith in his own work then it makes it hard for anyone else to. The beauty of a maths based system is that it has no bearing on the feelings of the creator during the season. It will continue to spit out the same bets even if the creator feels happy, sad, mad, crap or any other emotion. What we do need Graeme to do is to take a look at the hard numbers and figure out using whatever tests he can where the issue is. Is it variance? Is the edge it found gone for good? How can it be improved? What was the likelihood of this seasons result? There are many questions that need to be asked and answered. The great thing is numbers don’t have emotions, maybe 88 feels like two fat ladies at times but for the most part this doesn’t affect the results. This run can only be a good thing for Graeme, unless he quits at his first bad experience. It will teach him many things which in the long run should make his models better and allow him to show more faith to his subscribers in the bad times. The question still remains if the system is just absolutely crap now, but one bad season can’t answer that. We can’t escape our emotions, but how we deal with them is totally in our control. What I would say to Graeme is to get over it and instead of worrying about things, spend that time looking into the issues and working on solutions.

Geez I’ve been a right bastard this week. We have two crying Tipsters and I’ve probably just made them shed some more tears. But really, if I paid money for a managed fund in the stock market and my advisers started sending me emails saying things like I have been reading in the past week I would tell them the same thing. Grow some balls and get back to work.

Ok, so those soccer systems made a loss, lets look at the others. FB Elite lost 6 from 7 and the 7th was a lucky 90th minute goal. $3,360 lost this week and back to break even. Combo Football Investor turned the recent poor run around with $2,670 profit and ClubGOWI added $2,100.

We also had another win in the Golf and for the first time ever I am in profit. I’m glad I persevered with Bryan and now hope for a few more wins to start making some real profit. $4,830 profit.

Onto Sportpunter models. I have stopped NBA and should have done so sooner. Every season is the same, nice profits until the end of December and then a big downturn. Silly me for following it longer then I should have. NHL on the other hand has turned around big time since the start of the year. $4,080 profit this week. We ended the NBL regular season with a small profit of $300. Only a few more games until we wrap up the greatest season long return I have ever experienced. It has really saved my bacon this year. The amazing thing is that it’s record may not last more then a few months as both the NRL and Super15 models are doing even better early on. The Union added an incredible $6,570 this week and the League added $4,010. They are at ROI’s of 78% and 69.4% respectively. The ATP made a $700 loss and AFL lost $600.

That’s it for another roller-coaster of a week. It ended pretty well and with a massive midweek of Soccer starting tonight and a full round of AFL this week, there’s every chance I will be sitting on $50,000 or $100,000 by this time next week. Lets hope it is the latter.

Total profit for the week was $8,989.23

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $3,018,681.34
Profit/Loss: $82,709.87
POT: 2.74%
Bets Placed: 5,237
Won: 1901
Lost: 3068
Half Payout: 26
Refunded: 242
Winning %: 38.3%
Total profit per day: $270,231.96 / 1364 = $198.11
Total Turnover: $12,768,510.87
Total ROI: 2.12%

ATP – SP $360,351.00 $5,821.30 1.6%
week profit/loss: -696.79

AFL H2H – SP $39,005.00 $8,318.75 21.3%
week profit/loss: -365

AFL Line – SP $235,006.00 $38,825.89 16.5%
week profit/loss: -239.28

Rugby SP $19,473.00 $15,183.82 78.0%
week profit/loss: 6570.50

NRL SP $11,448.00 $7,946.50 69.4%
week profit/loss: 4010.17

FB Elite $213,000.00 $1,279.00 0.6%
week profit/loss: -3360

Skeeve $110,098.00 $(9,755.70) -8.9%
week profit/loss: -3504

Combo FI $122,715.00 $15,002.38 12.2%
week profit/loss: 2670

TFA $561,876.00 $(52,707.08) -9.38%
week profit/loss: -5,120

ClubGowi $207,822.00 $7,843.30 3.8%
week profit/loss: 2095.50

NP Win $22,129.34 $269.16 1.2%
week profit/loss: 4830.50

NHL Totals $265,923.00 $7,559.36 2.8%
week profit/loss: 4079.93

NBL Totals $99,607.00 $29,619.64 29.7%
week profit/loss: -1543

NBL Line $100,362.00 $23,909.83 23.8%
week profit/loss: 1829.70

NBA Totals $146,687.00 $1,465.67 1.0%
week profit/loss: 0

NBA H2H $92,790.00 $4,930.38 5.3%
week profit/loss: 0

24. March 2014 by admin
Categories: update | 12 comments

My reply to The Football Analysts reply (finally)

It’s been over a month now since I made a remark on my site about the Football Analyst system and how I thought having so many systems was a bit of an issue. I wrote:

I believe having so many systems is a bit of a cop-out at times and saw it with Formbet as well. With so many systems, one is always going to be winning and Formbet goes to great lengths to let people know of any one system that is ahead, but overall the system has a massive loss. TFA isn’t so blatant in regards to this but does let people know that it isn’t up to him if they win or lose. This is the beauty of these sort of systems for the tipster, they are always going to have a stream of players winning and letting others know how great they are, and the losers just leave.

This remark was coming off the back of more poor TFA results (since then I have lost a further $15,000) and was a little harsh, but I stand by my initial criticism that having all these systems allows a tipster to hide his results. This season there are a whopping 52 different systems to choose from. Many of them are correlated. Now to understand big numbers lets first talk about a deck of cards which has the same number of cards as Graeme has systems. If I was to ask you to shuffle the deck and then tell me how likely that those 52 cards had been formed into the exact same series before, what do you think the probability would be? I’ll save you the time and say that it’s as close to 0 as you can get.

“if each star in our galaxy had a trillion planets, with a trillion people living on them, and each of these people has a trillion packs of cards and somehow they manage to make unique shuffles 1,000 times per second since the Big Bang, they’d only be starting to repeat shuffles now.”

Now sure, this isn’t directly related to how you can pick your TFA portfolio, but does show that there would be millions of ways to play the TFA systems. This allows a massive range of experiences for TFA clients. You will have people like me with massive losses and others with massive wins. Let’s also add in the fact you can play these as straight up 1X2 bets, or AH(0) and other asians, and then you can flat stake or stake more on home wins and you start to imagine the almost limitless possibilities.

Now before I go on with this post, a little disclaimer. I am a big boy, I make my own decisions in regards to the money I bet and the services I follow. At the end of the day the only place for blame is with myself. Nothing I am saying below is to imply that Graeme has steered me to lose close to $56,000. The buck stops with me and me alone.

My issue was that this allows a tipster to cherry pick systems that are working well and advertise them to the general public, while moving the poor systems to the back of the room. My remark was more aimed towards Formbet then TFA, as I believe Graeme to be very honest, but I had noticed a few remarks that did not sit well with me. They were referring to how well the Euro and Draw systems were doing, and I will get this a little later.

To be honest, I assumed my rant would last about the same amount of time it took to write it. But it struck a cord with Graeme who replied as only Graeme can. In a massively long blog post. I have no idea how he can be so prolific in his writing. I know this reply of mine will take me hours to write and that’s without doing any research. Every Tuesday when I write the weekly results post, it takes me longer to update the numbers then to write my post. I like my blog writing the same way I like my sex, in and out quickly and leaving someone very unsatisfied.

Graeme posted the 2012/13 season results and also the results up to the end of January for the current season. Below you can see the results of that season and which models I played. This will give you a fair idea of what my options were for the next season. As you can see last season I did not pick the best systems yet still made a healthy profit. My goal then and this season was to follow the systems with the lowest amount of bets and highest ROC.

1213season

Moving on to how I came up with this seasons systems and I’m sure other subscribers have the same problems as me. With so many to choose from where do you even start. The first part was easy, Graeme had zero confidence in the Euro models. I thought they still had merit and told him so, but he was adamant they were not very good. That meant they had no place in my new portfolio. I had always been attracted to Draw models and would have liked to follow a few of them but again was told that these were new and probably would not do well. I still decided to at least follow a few but wasn’t sure which ones. That left me with all the UK based models to choose from. The 5 I had the previous season had done well so they were kept in and I added in 31-42, 33-41, 33-42, TOX, STOY, and STOZ. Now if you look at the chart, you see that these systems came 5th, 12th, 15th, 3rd, 6th and 2nd that year, but you will also notice that all these systems were the ones with the lowest number of bets and highest ROCS. From the start I wanted the biggest bang for my buck.

When reading the TFA twitter feed and blog posts/emails I felt there had been a lot more talk about the Draw and Euro systems, even though I was told specifically not to play the Euro systems and to be very careful with the Draw systems. I felt that these systems should be pushed more into the background as very few people would be following them, but as they did well, it seemed to me that they got a lot more airtime then they deserved. This was my main criticism. I was not attacking the TFA service but instead attacking a larger issue I see in the Tipster world. My actual results had no real bearing on the issue I meant to bring up.

I know Cassini’s loins get all tingly when I mention him on this blog, but he has a timely blog post which helps with this point. He was saying how Peter Nordsted (A tipster) had posted an under bet for subscribers to his service and then posted the opposite side on twitter. This is a blatant example of what I was trying to get at. With so many different bets (and overlapping bets) it is easier for a tipster to point to the winners. Again, this is not Graeme, this was leveled at the dodgy tipsters in general and I stupidly placed the TFA system in there when trying to make a point. To me it is like the old trick of sending out 1000 tips in the mail with 500 saying to bet on one thing and 500 saying to bet on the other, then sending a second tip to the 500 initial winners and splitting them into two groups once again. By the 5th letter you still have 62 people who think you can’t lose and will pay for anything you say. Add in social media and it would seem that this fraudster is a betting genius.

The issue directly related to TFA is the adding of the draw systems and any new systems. With these he is now covering pretty much 75% of results. If the main systems were to fail like they have this season then it stands to reason that the Draw systems are going to look like the most amazing thing ever. Now current and future subscribers are likely to jump onto these next season and if things revert to the mean they are going to be very disappointed, and Graeme can easily say that they did a bad job of choosing a portfolio. Every season you are going to have some systems producing ludicrously good ROI’s and some the exact opposite. Most people (including me) only see the upside and happily jump in and lose money. I feel the overriding goal of any Tipster is to make his subscribers a profit, that is the one and only goal, if he can do this everything else will take care of itself.

With Graemes consent here are a few of the comments from emails we exchanged before the start of the season.

I’ve attached a portfolio spreadsheet for you. I’ve incorporated the systems you’ve outlined below and just added the top two draw systems for good measure. These are systems D3-D6 and D3-D7. I would give the Euros a miss this season after the rollercoaster last season and I think your portfolio needs to be weighted towards the more proven systems like it is now.

You do have the option of just applying an arbitrary max bet but I’ve done a quick piece of analysis for you on your portfolio of bets. As you will see, the returns from following these multiple bets are very high and therefore, any max bet you apply will just reduce your profit in the long-run. Your decision at the end of the day but based on all the analysis, any cap just reduces your profit. The best bets are the ones appearing on more systems and the fact you stake these the heaviest is the way to make the most money long-term I think. Plays the biggest stakes on the biggest edge.

Hopefully this gives you what you are after mate. I like this portfolio and with the bank you have mate, no reason why you couldn’t make a lot of profit next season as long as the systems don’t go off the rails.

This is where Graeme is different from the majority, he takes the time to try and help his clients. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but as you can see, we both thought that it was a fairly good portfolio. That last sentence is very prophetic though. Up until March 19th I have now bet a total of $549,376 and lost $55,087 which is a -10.02% ROI and a loss of 55% of my bank. I did lower bets at one stage and since then have broken even.

tfaresults

Now I knew that this unique snowflake of a portfolio was massively correlated. It was either going to have a fantastic season or the one that it is actually having. I took those risks based on the past numbers and my faith in the TFA system. I was greedy and have paid for it. The lesson for me here is to understand the downside of risk. I only saw the potential upside when factoring in what to bet on. It’s easy to get carried away about all the future profit you are going to make and not think fully about what would happen in a bad season. Sure this season has surpassed all previous draw-downs, but I should have factored even these unlikely events into my final decision. I keep thinking I need to make massive amounts of profit quickly, when really I should be seeing this as a 10 – 50 year experiment. There really should have been no rush to make hundreds of thousands per year just 3 season in. But I do want to move this into something that is sustainable and allows me not to have to work.

In Graemes post he states that I was unlucky and also that the portfolio I choose was not very good. He does also say that it has not performed as well as past years. I agree somewhat. I agree that the system has not performed the same as it has in the past. I also slightly agree with the fact that my portfolio wasn’t great, but it was based of all the information that was available to me at the time and Graeme also seemed to agree it was a good portfolio. Luck on the other hand I don’t agree with. Luck goes both ways for all of us. It seems like the easiest answer when both good and bad things happen to us. I prefer to think of it as timing. I had poor timing, I did not hear about the TFA system until last year, and upped my stakes and portfolio at the wrong time.

The overriding question for me and a lot of current subscribers is if the current season is a blip or a sign of things to come? Has the market caught up or was it just one of those bizarre seasons that happen every few years? Graeme is now going to look at his current models and tweak them and it also looks like he will be adding even more systems next season. I don’t have those answers and only time will tell. What I do have control over though is if I will continue to place my money on these bets.

Even after this terrible season I still believe I can make a profit from betting on Soccer and that the best way to do that is with Graeme and the TFA systems. Finding a profit from Soccer is very important to the long term success of this portfolio, it is the biggest sport in the world and it is slightly easier to get bets on then other sports. It is also my favorite sport. But after this many seasons without much to show for it, year 5 will be the pivotal year. If I can’t make a profit from it in year 5, it will need to be removed from my portfolio.

Clearly I have no idea what I am doing in regards to picking the systems. Who better to create the perfect portfolio for me and other subscribers then the models creator? So what I am going to do for next season is let Graeme design my portfolio (if he is up for it), and then at the end of the year track it against my current one. I’m happy to follow whatever bank size, bet types and systems he feels will generate me the best return. I feel this will also help many other subscribers who also feel lost in dealing with so much choice.

We as humans do not do well with choices. We think we want choice, but in reality when given a myriad of choices, we end up wishing someone else would do the hard work of making the choice for us.

Surgeon Atul Gawande found that 65% of people surveyed said if they were to get cancer, they’d want to choose their own treatment. Among people surveyed who really do have cancer, only 12% of patients want to choose their own treatment.

Spoon feed me Graeme, take away my choices.

18. March 2014 by admin
Categories: betting, Review | 9 comments

Mar 12th – Mar 18th -$17,395.58

I did say I didn’t want to know how bad things could get when Sportpunter models did not perform and like magic, my nightmares were delivered straight away. Sportpunter models still made a small profit in total, but they have been covering for the other services for a very long time, actually, they have been covering for them since the start. I actually saw this coming after the strong run I had been on lately, and last week it started to falter and this week it really went off the rails. Soccer gave me hope early in the year, but now I can safely say there is little chance of making a profit and a high chance of making a large loss for the season. I was on such a high Saturday afternoon and after one of my single biggest wins, everything went down hill.

Lets get Soccer out of the way. Football Elite made $860 and has been steady the last little while, it can really go either way this season. Skeeve made a loss of $200 but as always, it could have been so different. Nuneaton losing a 2 goal lead and Cambridge conceding late turned what would have been a massive win into a small win, and then Skeeve went against all his rules and lost a game this morning to make the week another losing one. It smells like he is chasing to get the service into profit for the year and as I have been saying all year, it does not seem to be working. Combo Football Investor has not been performing to its usual standard lately and lost $3,800 this week and The Football Analyst continues what is for me the worst ever season and loss I have ever had following any model. A further $13,250 lost this week and that takes me to 50% of the bank lost once again. ClubGOWI has also been treading water lately, sadly I have yet to see one of his great runs and hope it comes sooner rather then later. A $1,250 loss this week. So Soccer once again is responsible for this weeks loss with -$17,660.

The first week of AFL started with a split round and on Saturday afternoon I was heralding its return, as GWS produced one of the biggest upsets I have seen. I honestly thought I was throwing $500 away on the H2H bet at $13.50, but they managed to beat the swans pretty soundly in the last. Sadly that was the only win for the model this week and resulted in a $1,500 profit. If you follow me on twitter you might also have seen a bet I placed on that game get up. I was alerted that Sportsbet, who limited me to max bets of 0 had seemed to stuff up their limits for a certain type of bet and it seemed the market on a player was a little high. As I’d do anything to get back at Sportsbet who are a shocking example of how poor the big corporate bookmakers are in Australia, I decided to place my first non official bet in years. The bet was for most goals in the GWS v Sydney game and Cameron was at $12. Buddy Franklin was a firm favorite but the Swans usually share the goals and with Sportpunter thinking GWS had a chance, I assumed the odds should have been closer to $4. I duly placed a $1,000 bet (which for me is huge) on this and nearing the end of the second quarter I was not confident as he had yet to kick a goal. But two goals at the end of that quarter put me back in the game. Late on his teammate had a chance right in front to equal him on goals which would have halved the bet but sprayed it wide. A very lucky $11,000 win which will not be added to the spreadsheet. Maybe I should become a Tipster, how hard can it really be?

Onto the other Sportpunter models and the Tennis finally made a profit with $4,755 added this week bringing it back to break even for the year. The Rugby Union continues its excellent form with $4,000 profit and the new NRL player based model is looking half decent with another $1,400 profit. NHL totals lost $1,100 and NBA had a shocker losing $3,350. NBL had its worst week of the season going 0 for 3 and losing $6,500.

The Golf also had a shocker and lost a further $950.

That magical $100,000 mark now looks so far away. It’s just a random round number and has no significance at all, but psychologically it is massive. Getting so close to surpassing it a few times and now being so far off really gets to me. I know I will continue with Soccer next season, but unless I see some profit, it doesn’t look like it will be part of the portfolio going forward.

Total loss for the week was $17,395.58

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,899,610.34
Profit/Loss: $73,720.64
POT: 2.54%
Bets Placed: 5,023
Won: 1827
Lost: 2931
Half Payout: 25
Refunded: 240
Winning %: 38.4%
Total profit per day: $261,242.73 / 1357 = $192.51
Total Turnover: $12,649,439.87
Total ROI: 2.07%

ATP – SP $340,235.00 $6,518.09 1.9%
week profit/loss: 4755.02

AFL H2H – SP $34,615.00 $8,683.75 25.1%
week profit/loss: 3790

AFL Line – SP $218,230.00 $39,065.17 17.9%
week profit/loss: -2252

Rugby SP $13,888.00 $8,613.32 62.0%
week profit/loss: 4032.65

NRL SP $7,099.00 $3,936.33 55.4%
week profit/loss: 1421.58

FB Elite $206,000.00 $4,639.00 2.3%
week profit/loss: 860

Skeeve $101,698.00 $(6,251.70) -6.1%
week profit/loss: -216

Combo FI $118,215.00 $12,332.38 10.4%
week profit/loss: -3800.50

TFA $541,876.00 $(47,587.08) -6.66%
week profit/loss: -13,250

ClubGowi $195,291.00 $5,745.80 2.9%
week profit/loss: -1254

NP Win $21,579.34 $(4,561.34) -21.1%
week profit/loss: -950

NHL Totals $261,434.00 $3,479.43 1.3%
week profit/loss: -1139

NBL Totals $96,924.00 $31,162.64 32.2%
week profit/loss: 0

NBL Line $94,931.00 $22,080.13 23.3%
week profit/loss: -6480

NBA Totals $146,687.00 $1,465.67 1.0%
week profit/loss: -566.84

NBA H2H $92,790.00 $4,930.38 5.3%
week profit/loss: -2778.49

17. March 2014 by admin
Categories: update | 2 comments

Mar 5th – Mar 11th +$1,914.63

I have no idea how I made a profit this week. Because Saturday is my biggest single betting day, I usually assume whatever the result on that day is a pretty good representation of the week. On the weekend the Soccer models lost about $20,000, so I assumed a massive loss. Luckily when looking back over the week the Sportpunter models as always came to the rescue. I don’t want to imagine the day these models stop performing, as it could be a disaster. The longer this goes on, the more I seriously entertain the thought of solely following Sportpunter (and Football Investor), sadly, these other tipsters just haven’t produced the results they have historically.

I said last week that I would try and not watch any games this week and that lasted to Saturday night, where I decided to stay up and watch the Soccer, which was a complete disaster. I was sitting on $95,000 and thought a few good wins would see the profit climb over $100,000 and I could have a little celebration. Then I woke up the next morning and looked at the Tennis that was going on and watched as Stepanek choked in the third to cost me a $15,000 profit. Such a painful few days and a reason that I really need to stop watching games.

We may as well start with the Soccer and after a good few weeks, it reverted back to the usual pattern of the season. Skeeve lost all his bets and a further $3,600 but apparently was due to another unlucky result and some woodwork getting in the way. Football Elite started terribly on Saturday but recovered a bit and ended down just $560. Combo Football Investor had it’s first negative week in a while and lost $960 and The Football Analyst went 0 from 22 and lost $6,000. ClubGOWI lost $183 but much more then that with the Soccer as he had a winning Golf bet. A heap of midweek bets tonight, which has not been kind at all this season.

Onto Tennis and as I sit here, Dolgopolov has just choked while serving for the match against Nadal. He is about to lose in a tiebreaker and it is so frustrating that these lower players just can’t finish off games. Tennis lost $2,300 this week although most bets were on very long odds. EDIT: A good example of how much shit I talk: Dolgopolov served an ace on match point which was challenged and was 1mm out, but he managed to win on his second serve. This win will be added to next weeks total.

AFL starts on Friday and I have never been more excited. I am also very nervous at the same time. Even though there has never been a big losing season the chance is always there and at the stakes I am now playing at, a bad run could see all this years profit taken away. I also love watching AFL, so I am going to try and do what I did last season and go for an hour long run every time a game is on.

The Rugby codes are also doing well for Sportpunter. Union made $800 and NRL had a great start with $2,500 profit. Hoping for a repeat of the NBL season for these two models. NBL continues its season of dominance and bookies have pretty much stopped taking bets now, I have just the one bookmaker who will take a bet and the odds are usually pretty poor. Not sure how this will work out next season. $5,100 profit. Onto the American sports and NHL has surged back over the last few weeks. $4,800 profit this week. NBA added a little more modest profit of $360.

Lastly Nics Picks finally had a win with Donaldson being the highest European player. $1,900 profit for the Golf. ClubGOWI also picked Reed at the start of the last round and he held on for the win.

Will never complain about a profitable week. Even though I can’t remember ever making a profit on midweek games, the chance is still there that I may just hit that $100,000 profit mark tonight. If that does happen, it will be a nice little achievement for me. Last season the highest profit level was $92,000 reached in early May. The highest level so far this season was reached last week at $95,000. With almost 4 months left in this my 4th year, and a historically amazing model set to start, I could not only smash through that elusive $100k mark, but maybe even hit $150,000. At the beginning of November I would have laughed so hard in your face that you would be covered in so much spittle you would drown if you had told me I would even be able to contemplate a result like that. Next weeks post shall be epic (as the kids say).

Total profit for the week was $1,914.63

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,782,006.34
Profit/Loss: $91,116.22
POT: 3.28%
Bets Placed: 4,801
Won: 1770
Lost: 2772
Half Payout: 23
Refunded: 236
Winning %: 39.0%
Total profit per day: $278,638.31 / 1350 = $206.39
Total Turnover: $12,531,835.87
Total ROI: 2.22%

ATP – SP $335,734.00 $1,763.07 0.5%
week profit/loss: -2299.39

AFL H2H – SP $31,795.00 $4,893.75 15.4%
week profit/loss: 0

AFL Line – SP $207,830.00 $41,317.17 19.9%
week profit/loss: 0

Rugby SP $9,858.00 $4,580.67 46.5%
week profit/loss: 788.45

NRL SP $4,626.00 $2,514.75 54.4%
week profit/loss: 2514.75

FB Elite $195,000.00 $3,779.00 1.9%
week profit/loss: -560

Skeeve $92,098.00 $(6,467.70) -7.0%
week profit/loss: -3600

Combo FI $108,715.00 $16,132.88 14.8%
week profit/loss: -960

TFA $515,126.00 $(34,337.08) -6.66%
week profit/loss: -6000

ClubGowi $179,891.00 $6,999.80 3.9%
week profit/loss: -183.80

NP Win $20,629.34 $(3,611.34) -17.5%
week profit/loss: 1900

NHL Totals $259,287.00 $4,618.43 1.8%
week profit/loss: 4835.83

NBL Totals $96,924.00 $31,162.64 32.2%
week profit/loss: 3501.75

NBL Line $88,451.00 $28,560.13 32.3%
week profit/loss: 1616.46

NBA Totals $139,310.00 $2,032.51 1.5%
week profit/loss: 1119.72

NBA H2H $88,614.00 $7,708.87 8.7%
week profit/loss: -759.14

10. March 2014 by admin
Categories: update | 8 comments

Are 1st goal/try scorer refunds worth it?

As the new NRL and AFL season starts, the bookies are going to be doing all they can to entice you back to bet with them. Sportingbet have a refund if your team scores over 12 points but loses and sportsbet have the same deal but with 18 points. These offers do offer value and I happily take them up when I can. By doing a tiny bit of research you can figure out the average points a team scored per game last season, how strong the other teams defense was and how they performed against each other last year. Taking these bets also shouldn’t lead to your account being closed. These offers will only be around for the first week or two so take the few minutes it takes to do the research and make some profit. You can even back and lay the same bet at Betfair for an easy guaranteed profit.

Onto the offers these bookies will have over the full season. The ones that seem great. These include some of the images below.
TAB
Tatts have a refund on your 1st try scorer bet if the number 3 from either team scores a try. TAB refunds if the fullback scores the first try. The bookies want you to place these bets so badly, and you need to ask yourself why? The reason is simple. A H2H market is usually $1.90 on each team if they are fairly matched. This is a 105% market. The bookmaker will make 5% on average on this bet. So every $100 you bet they will pocket $5. Now onto the shocking truth about 1st Try scorer and 1st Goal scorer markets. The book on these are 150%. I’ll repeat that again, 150%. What that means is that for every $100 you bet on these markets, the bookmaker is making $50 on average from you. No wonder they will do anything to get you to bet these.

tatts

That is the same as changing the odds on those evenly matched teams from $1.90 each to $1.34 each. Would you bet with them if that was the case? No F^*^en way. The books use your lack of maths knowledge to screw you over royally. No amount of refunds can overcome the massive head-start these books have given themselves.

If you’re a smart gambler then you now know to stay well clear of these type of offers.

06. March 2014 by admin
Categories: betting | 6 comments

February 2014 Review +$41,250.98

A great month and one I really enjoyed. Since November, the month totals have been +41,000, +$18,000, +$20,000 and now +$41,000. A $120,000 profit in the past four months. But this came of the back of a $86,000 loss the prior two months. The yearly profit is now in a place I assumed it would be by now so even though it came in its usual bizarre way, I’m excited its here.

February’s turnover was 10% less then January’s with $400,706.34 bet, but doubled its profits to $41,250.98 which is a stellar ROI of 10.29%.

This month only saw the one losing sports and that was Golf, but with average odds of around 50 to 1, we should expect to see mostly losing months and the occasional big month.

The big winner this month was Soccer. It was half the turnover and half the total profit for the month. Skeeve was the only losing tipster for the month but I think enough has been said about him and his service over the last few days. FB Elite has started to get some momentum going and added $7,700 at 19.9% and Combo Football Investor just keeps spitting out great bet after great bet and added $8,700 at an amazing 35.6% ROI. TFA added close to $11,000 and I hope this continues till the end of the season.

The AFL had the NAB cup and I was betting half stakes and made a mistake that turned a $2000 win into a $2000 loss, a very big $4,000 turnaround. It made $2,243 but this should have been $6,000. Tennis had a basic month with $4,000 profit and I’m happy to see it back to winning ways. The NFL finished with almost $2,000 profit for ClubGOWI and the NHL added a small profit also. The Sportpunter Rugby Union season started with a bang and $3,800 profit at 53.3%. Basketball has been a revelation this season and has helped me keep my sanity while everything else around it was failing. The NBA broke about even, but the NBL just continues to produce results that I doubt will ever be replicated. $10,500 profit for the NBL.

March has started well and we welcome the NRL and AFL models from Sportpunter into the portfolio. I have very little hope for the new player based model for the NRL and will keep stakes low for the first season, but the AFL has been my go to service since the inception of this blog and I am hoping that it continues its amazing form. The bets are going to be very big this season and I am going to try my best to stay away from the TV while these games are on. March’s turnover should increase dramtically as we have every single sport in my portfolio happening at the same time. This lasts for about 2 months before the Soccer season ends.

A very content gambler here. Still 4 months to go until year 4 is over and the total could go anywhere. Another replica of the past 4 months (YES PLEASE) would see close to $200,000 profit for the season, but a big loss is as likely an outcome. If the next 4 months only contribute $20,000 to take me to over $100,000 I will take that, but from here I am really hoping to hit $150,000. I will just need to keep placing the bets and hoping these tipsters know their stuff.

Combined Totals
AFL $34,042.00 $2,243.05 6.6%
Tennis $75,623.00 $4,052.59 5.4%
Soccer $202,549.00 $21,608.10 10.7%
Basketball $56,882.00 $10,582.12 18.6%
Golf $6,731.34 $(3,586.84) -53.3%
NFL $600.00 $1,898.00 316.3%
NHL $17,166.00 $661.74 3.9%
Rugby Union $7,113.00 $3,792.22 53.3%

Individual Models
ATP – SP $75,623.00 $4,052.59 5.4%
AFL H2H – SP $7,340.00 $758.55 10.3%
AFL Line – SP $26,702.00 $1,484.50 5.6%
FB Elite $39,000.00 $7,749.00 19.9%
Skeeve $18,248.00 $(3,875.60) -21.2%
Combo FI $24,500.00 $8,716.50 35.6%
6-22 $3,750.00 $902.50 24.1%
7-21 $5,500.00 $1,070.00 19.5%
7-22 $1,750.00 $957.50 54.7%
8-21 $2,750.00 $1,142.50 41.5%
8-22 $1,500.00 $320.00 21.3%
31-42 $13,250.00 $4,271.50 32.2%
33-41 $2,500.00 $(295.00) -11.8%
33-42 $2,250.00 $(45.00) -2.0%
TOX $10,000.00 $165.00 1.7%
STOY $10,000.00 $145.00 1.5%
STOZ $14,000.00 $(80.00) -0.6%
D3-D6 $2,000.00 $1,347.50 67.4%
D3-D7 $750.00 $922.50 123.0%
NP Win $2,481.34 $(2,181.34) -87.9%
NBL Totals $9,527.00 $3,531.04 37.1%
NBL Line $16,247.00 $6,978.67 43.0%
NBA Totals $17,919.00 $406.26 2.3%
NBA H2H $13,189.00 $(333.85) -2.5%
NHL Totals $17,166.00 $661.74 3.9%
ClubGowi $55,651.00 $(1,313.30) -2.4%
Rugby SP $7,113.00 $3,792.22 53.3%

05. March 2014 by admin
Categories: Monthly | Leave a comment

Skeeve picks reply

In yesterdays weekly update, I had a go at both Pinnacle sports and Skeeve picks. To be honest I thought I’d be writing about the Pinnacle issue, but I have had a reply from the head of the sportsbook and his direct reply was ‘I can unequivocally say we do not, and never have operated, any bet delay’. I have no reason to not believe him as Pinnacle has been the greatest sportsbook for a very long time. But to me and a few others it did seem like there was some sort of bet delay on French league 2 bets. As I only have my experience on this issue and no proof of what happened, I am happy to believe it was a technical issue, the next time something like this happens I will make sure to get actual proof (video). Pinnacle are great at replying to concerns and I had a private conversation with them where they let it be known they are more then happy to answer all my issues out in the open.

I also had a go at Skeeve as even though he had a perfect week, I felt that he is introducing a few third party services in the hopes of spreading the risk. I had no real problem with this as I do it with my portfolio and he has a business to run. You need other offerings to take up the slack when your main one is not working so well. I believe he and I can see that a few subscribers will be leaving at the end of the year and he needed to prepare for a future where maybe his own tipping has lost its edge. What I did have a concern with was what that said to me, and that was that Skeeve was unsure about his own selections, to me it seemed that these backup services are him trying to cover his business in case he fails (maybe I extrapolated more from it then I should have). I thought, why should I put all my trust in his picks if he doesn’t seem to be fully supporting his own thoughts. That was the point I was trying to get across in my not so elegant style of writing.

This morning I woke up to a Graeme-esque (TFA) length tirade (the length was Graeme-esque, not the tirade) in my comments section. I felt Skeeves voice should not languish in the comments section where only a few people will see them and instead I will directly answer his comments in a new blog post. Hat tip to Cassini for showing me how to produce lots of content this way. I will post his comment and my answers will be in bold. I hope we can have a constructive discussion and am more then happy to let Skeeve (and any other tipster) write as many guest posts as they would like. My main goal here is to help the average punter looking for a few good services to follow.

I believe Skeeve might have reached a boiling point and just decided that enough was enough as his comment feels directed not just at me, but at all the subscribers that send him emails and complain. I will try and be restrained in the way I answer as even though I feel he went a bit far on a few things, I can understand the strain he is probably under and we all need to vent (heck, I do it weekly right here).

I also have noticed that I have been very mean on this blog in the last few months. I felt there were a few issues that needed to be addressed and I do not tread lightly when I have problems. For some this is seen as a breath of fresh air, for others it is seen as me being a dick. I will try and be more sympathetic to the tipsters I follow in the coming months, unless they suck, then they are so in for it :)

Onto the comment and my replies.

Hi Steve,

Steve: Hello Skeeve

I haven’t visited your blog for some time, but it looks like I’ll have to reply to almost every post you’ve written in these few months as there’s an enormous quantity of rubbish and lies written about my service. I’ll just start with this latest post and move to the older posts when I find the time.

Steve: Hi mate, there may be a lot of rubbish on this site, but no lies at all. This site is totally based on my own opinion and I strive to put into words every week how I feel personally in regards to how my bets are doing, how each service is doing and my general disposition of having to deal with wild swings.

First of all, the German Football Bets that “got to you” (I’m so sorry they got to you, mate) are the latest addition to my own betting portfolio. If you’d read the e-mails instead of deleting them, you’d know all there is to know about it, but no – you’ve traditionally decided not just to delete them, but to publically shit on a project you know nothing about. So let me waste even more time on the peripheral aspects of my service and let your readers know what it’s really about. When BetPlace went under, not because they weren’t profitable but because it was a big team that didn’t manage to attract enough customers, many of my clients have asked if I could make some sort of a deal with interested tipsters from ex-BetPlace (the guys from BetPlace and me are from the same part of the world). I went on a couple of meetings, learned that almost all BetPlace tipsters have switched to other projects in the meantime, but managed to make a deal with Harley, a German football tipster with a long-term ROI of 11% who wrote more than three thousand articles over at BetPlace. Subsequently, I’ll be sending all of Harley’s picks to my clients free of charge at least until the end of the season. I’ll be paying Harley for his efforts out of my own pocket while my clients can choose between following him or deleting the e-mails.

Steve: I off-course read the emails before deleting them, at the end of the day I want to make as much profit as possible. My issue with adding the services is expressed above. To me it seems you are proofing these new services in essence to protect yourself. I had no issue with this from a business perspective. Sportpunter has a heap of models and some that make a loss every season, he does offer these bad ones for free and rarely talks about them. I had a go at TFA about having so many systems also. Now over the past 4 years I have learnt (mostly) to not dive into a new system with at least a few years of proofed results. I had to figure this out the hard way. I can also see the benefits for these tipsters, they get to show their skills to a much wider audience of people who have paid for a service before and are likely to buy again. From a business perspective that is perfectly fine with me. If your goal is to turn Skeeve picks into a betadvisor style site then that’s great. But you have to understand what it says to me, and again, this is my blog and all thoughts are mine (but these same thoughts were expressed to me by others). What it says is that you don’t fully believe in your own service. That is what I paid for, your brain. I believed that you have an uncanny ability to produce profits in a niche league. Now I’m sure you don’t think like this at all, I’m sure you see it as an added extra service you are providing for your customers. That’s your opinion and I respect that.

The set-up is the same as with the Croatian Football Bets, another free project I’m involved with for a year now as an administrator and a senior advisor. You’ve probably deleted all the e-mails, so let me just say that the Croatian Football Bets are currently at a +14.92 point profit (19.3% ROI, 59.6% ROC) for the 2013/14 season so far (one-point flat stakes, advised bank: 25 points). These picks are also free of charge for my clients, at least until the end of the season. You’re welcome.

Steve: I sadly did not dive into these bets as there was no past history but am more then happy with my decision. The beauty here is that if they went bad, then o well, you were offering these for free and they didn’t work. You do keep repeating, until the end of the season, which imply that they and the German picks will be a paid service from next season. Again, that’s fine and many tipsters need to give away tips for free for years before charging (TFA is a great example). But to take the high road and say you are doing this as a courtesy to your clients is a bit much. You are marketing a new product you hope to sell next season. They may be amazing services and make people a lot of money, only time will tell.

Also, I’ve advised many five-point bets so far. This was the first five-point bet this season (it landed of course), but we’ve had some last season (and every season before that) – maybe you were winning a soccer tournament somewhere and missed them.

Steve: I do tend to win a lot of soccer tournaments. I did state it was the first I could remember, and sadly my memory usually doesn’t extend longer then a season. I should do research before posting, but as I have explained, I have about 10 minutes each week to spit out my feelings and then move on. So apologies for the lack of research on that one.

Should I feel relieved that TFA didn’t have a bet on Tamworth because, if he had, you would’ve given the other double a miss as well? Also, you do realise you would’ve catched better odds for the five-point double if you had taken the bet straight away and not, I don’t know, twelve hours later, don’t you?

Steve: I have made this a problem for myself here, I follow a number of tipsters and they don’t always agree. Usually I just bet all selections, but this is not the profitable way to do it. I now take a few factors into account when placing these opposing bets and so far it has saved me many many thousands. Onto the odds I could get and from the start I have told my visitors that I do not bet straight away as I am asleep when the tips come out and the majority of the time they rebound and I get much better then quoted odds. As you are about to read over all my past posts (some cracking stuff in there), you will see that I continually praise the way you quote odds and that on average I beat you odds by betting later. I again did a lot of research on this and found that checking your odds throughout the day was the most profitable way forward. In this one case it wasn’t and therefore I was strict enough with myself not to follow as it was under the minimum odds. Yes it cost me, but the extra money I have made by waiting and getting better odds far far outweighs this one missed profit.

So the draw was very, very lucky and when a team I’m betting on misses a penalty, hits the woodwork four times and concedes from the other team’s only shot on goal I’m just rubbish? Sure. Very fair, very consistent, thanks mate.

Steve: Yes it was very very lucky. Chester had a player sent off very early and kept taking the lead. Here is a quote from Cassini about your pick as well “including fluking a 3:3 draw in the AFC Chester v Nuneaton Borough game!”, I do not see you commenting on his blog about that. This is a real bugbear of mine and I have posted about it before. When you have a losing bet where woodwork was hit or penalties missed you are the first to let everyone know in your recap emails, o woe is me, it’s not that I didn’t pick well, it was that the woodwork got in the way or a player didn’t play his best or the ref was a cheat. This was your quote on the Chester win. “That’s more like it. Chester and Nuneaton shared points in a high-scoring 3:3 draw”. So you are not very consistent in your commenting, there have been a number of last minute goals and missed penalties that have gone your way, but I have never heard once you say how lucky we got. It’s betting, luck goes both ways but if someone was to read your emails, they would assume all the gods ever created were against you. I feel your ego gets in the way sometimes and it is the case on many of your recap emails.

If anyone is thinking about starting a tipping service, think again. Or, at least, don’t try and be fair to everyone. Don’t have a waiting list, just take all the clients you can, even if it means destroying the odds for everyone. Money is the only thing it matters, not fair play. Don’t record odds with a fair delay, just record the odds with StanJames and BetVictor. They don’t even have to be the odds available at that moment in time – yesterday’s odds are good as well. Sure, none of your clients will match the official results, but the official results will look better. Also, if you go on a prolonged losing run, just go insane and lose the entire betting bank. Why would you want to help your clients get some of those lost points back by sending them specialised picks from proven tipsters free of charge? That’s mental. Also, forget about the detailed previews, picks coming at the same time every week, recap e-mails, season reviews, other publications that try and help your clients maximise the profit and avoid dodgy bookmakers and fellow services. What’s wrong with simply sending the name of the team you’re betting on, without a preview, without the available odds, without the minimum value odds attached… Last but not least, don’t give bloggers a 50% discount. I was a blogger myself, sharing my picks for free before I turned my service into a paid one so that I could get rid of the boring freelance jobs and pay the rent (not everyone had a betting bank by default – some of us started with nothing), and I really had nothing but respect for the likes of Rowan Day, which is why I offered a 50% discount to any blogger who will follow and write about my picks throughout the season. The only condition was to follow all picks and not improvise every single week. You’ve failed to do so. You don’t owe me money. I don’t want your money. I’ll get you back to green with my picks and, when the season ends, you will be removed from the mailing list and won’t be welcome anymore. As far as the blogger discount is concerned – I’ll be smarter than that next time. No more blogger discount. Sorry, other bloggers. As far as I’m concerned, feel free to blame your favorite blogger.

Steve: If you have read my blog you would know I am on the exact same page with you on this, I have made it my quest over the last few months to bring these issues to a wider audience and have something done about them. I have praised your service no end about the way it is run, how fair you record odds and how you should be the standard and not the outlier. I will forgive your ignorance on this point as you stated earlier you had not read my blog and will be happy to accept your apology after you have.

Onto the 50% discount for bloggers. After my first season you said I was not entitled to it as I hadn’t given a fair representation of your service (this was true as I had been away for a week and missed some winning bets), I was happy to pay for the service again. In the second season you again did not give me any type of blogger discount. It seems you are happy to give the discount as payment to write better reviews about the service. I am more then happy to pay for all tipsters and have been offered free membership from a few tipsters before and have taken them up on the offer, but I pay for at least 80% of my tips and have never ever received a “Blogger” discount from Skeeve. So again, you should have done some research before accusing me of getting your service cheaper then it is, which is by far the most expensive I subscribe to. I do apoligise to other bloggers that may have gotten this discount, but if it means you no longer need to hold back and be as honest as possible then that can only be a good thing.

Lets also get onto the “not everyone had a betting bank by default – some of us started with nothing” insult you flung my way. Never ever assume anything mate. I started with $60. Yep, that’s right. $60. Let me repeat that for you. $60. 10 years ago and I built that up over the next 6 years to my $50,000 betting bank. But that’s a story for another time. I still work those so called boring freelance jobs to pay the rent and work on my own business. To be honest, it shouldn’t matter if I had a $50k starting bank or a $5,000 bank. The only difference is that my results maybe have an extra zero then a lot of my readers, but the percentages will all be very close.

Now, I also can understand how tough running a tipster service must be, every week you put it all on the line and you have to deal with not only losing your own money when things don’t go well, but also the knowledge that you have lost clients money. You are always constantly worried that a bad season could end a business you have worked on for years and you also constantly have to deal with negative emails and dicks like me. Personally I applaud you for the amount of patience and skill you have to run a service. I know I don’t have those skills. I can understand when it may get to be too much and you post an outburst like you have on my site.

In regards to me not being allowed back in next season, that is your right to choose who can be a part of your service, but we both knew I wasn’t going to be continuing next season.

I wasn’t joking. I’ll be replying to every single post that features lies and rubbish as soon as I find the time.

Steve: I look forward to the increased page count in my analytics. I will also take the time to reply to your comments.

If you don’t want to lose everything you have (believe it or not, I don’t want that to happen to anyone – I know how it is, to have nothing), you will have to take a long-term approach and not improvise every single week. Oh, I’ll take this bet. Oh, I won’t take this bet. Oh, this guy is rubbish. Oh, the same guy is great only seven days later. Oh, I’ll take this bet tomorrow. Oh, this bet clashes with some other bet from a completely different type of service. Oh, I’ll just ignore one of those two. Why? I have no idea. But why not.

Steve: Thanks for the advice. Is 4 years not a long term approach? I don’t know any other blogger who posts a weekly P/L who has been around as long as me, especially with my swings. Just 4 months ago I was -$50,000 for the season, but knew this is a long term venture. I have seen hundreds of similar blogs come and go. A little respect for my persistance at least. I only improvised your bets because of a few reasons pointed out above. Every other tip has been followed to the letter from every other tipster.

I know I have still so much to learn in this game and at the stakes I now bet, a bad season is going to really hurt. I have been very fortunate to find a number of solid tipsters and also understand how lucky I have been.

In regards to the weekly posts, I have thought about this as well, I have thought about moving to a fortnightly or monthly blog post, this will at least decrease the massive amount of variance all services experience on a weekly basis. But at the end of the day, if I posted once a month, people would forget about the site. People actually enjoy coming back every week to see how I have done. As I don’t spend any time trading or learning about betting, I have very little else to offer apart from some big wins and losses every week. I believe my readers are very bright people and know that one weekly result means very little to the overall performance of a tipster and instead would go to my yearly reviews to get a better perspective.

I bet you’ll think of me in a few years, when you realise a thing or two about tipsters. At this moment in time, you and me live in completely different worlds, different on many levels. You think a tipster is rubbish if he has a break-even season or two, even if that comes after five, six or seven consecutive profitable seasons. I think a tipster is rubbish if he loses his entire betting bank and isn’t profitable in the long run. You think a tipster is great if he’s had a good weekend. I think a tipster is great if he’s had a good career so far and if he’s a fair guy and a hard worker. Good luck, mate. You’re gonna need it.

Steve: I will think about you in years to come and check in and hope you get over this little bump and continue to make your clients a nice healthy profit. I don’t think any tipster I follow is rubbish, I’ve gambled many millions on the fact that they aren’t rubbish. Every week I have the option to stop following and every new season I have the option to pay more money to continue following. I have felt some I have followed are rubbish and over the years I will come to that conclusion about many more. I feel it is possible that some tipsters have lost their edge, or there is a change in the game or many other factors which can render a tipster no longer profitable. There’s only so many years of history you can coast on. Yes, in those years you were great, but I did not benefit from them, I have only my own experience to go on.

Those who shit and spit on fair-play services that never had a losing season, that try and be fair to their clients even if it means less money for them deserve harsher words than these. I have better things to do though, but I might start a blog where I could write about my clients in the same manner they’re writing about my service. If I don’t, some poor guy could get a lot of wrong ideas about a lot of things. Let me say something to that poor guy – I hope you’re smarter than that.

Steve: I would so read that blog. It would be amazing. One thing you have to understand is that this blog isn’t here for tipsters, it started as a place for me to keep tabs on my profit and loss and has evolved into what I hope is a resource and review site for other potential idiots like myself who have zero chance of making a profit betting on their own. I have never said your service isn’t fair, in fact I say the exact opposite. The only bad things I have said are about your current run of form since I have been following you, I can’t go back in time and join your service when it was making a profit (wish I could). These are my opinions and to the poor guy Skeeve was addressing, I hope you are smart, I believe my readers are the top of the crop and not losing punters. I believe they make informed decision before investing their own money into a service. After almost 4 years I know how hard it is to make a profit from this game.

cheers,
skeeve

Steve: Cheers mate. I do think you may have just had enough when you wrote this and understand you feel the need to defend yourself. I invite you to write a guest post on this blog (unedited by me) with whatever you want to say to my readers. I hope you can see my point of view a little better also and understand where I am coming from, as I am a customer of yours and usually if one customer feels a certain way then a few others probably do so too, I just have a public voice while many of the others do not.

So there we have it loyal readers. I believe I need to think a bit more about how my comments will effect the tipsters I follow, but also feel that tipsters should take what I say on board. I feel my relationship with the majority of the guys I pay are very good and we usually have very fruitful discussions. I can’t please everyone and my personality type is going to rub some people the wrong way. I hope my readers and tipsters understand that these are just one persons opinion and you can add whatever weight you feel to what I say. This blog is here purely for entertainment sake and anyone thinking of following a tipster should do their own due diligence. I’ll leave it at that.

03. March 2014 by admin
Categories: news | 33 comments

Feb 26th – Mar 4th +$30,675.26

WOWAWEEWAH. Back to back massive weeks has catapulted the profits into a new territory for me. I’m too lazy to look back through my past posts, but I believe this may be the first ever $30k+ week. Even in my wildest predictions, I never though my profit could be this high at this stage. It was at the start of November that I was begging for a break even season when sitting at -$50,000. Amazing the amount of profit that can be made when things start going well. Lets hope the introduction of the AFL season this month adds even more to the profit and I can break the magical $100,000 barrier for the season.

Lets start with the small amount of pain I had to endure while watching an NBL game on the weekend. I had a $2,000 bet on the -4.5 line and with 5 seconds left my team was up by 4 and stole the ball and had two guys under the oppositions ring, they pass the ball and the guy has a good 3 seconds to layup, dunk, make a cup of tea. What does he do, dribbles the ball away from the ring and lets time expire. WHY. Closest I have ever been to throwing my remote at the tv. Serves me right for watching games I bet on and I know I say it every time, but I have to stop watching games. The soccer starts at 2am every Sunday morning and I sit with my Flashscores app while watching an EPL game and don’t get to bed till 5am. Last weeks goal was to go without Facebook, Twitter and my RSS feeds, I lasted the 5 days of the week. This week my goal is to not watch games.

I’ll also talk about Skeeve before getting onto the results. He has now started sending some German tips and this really got to me, I know I can easily delete the emails and I do, but it really seems he is doing all this as a backup plan for his service. I was so so close to not following this weeks picks as I thought that if he is already trying to cover his arse then why should I have any faith in his tipping. But then I felt bad for him, he is just trying to run a business and some other streams of income are a good idea as clearly his own tipping is not looking great (up until this week at least). Then the first ever 5 point bet I can remember pops up and that got me thinking he was chasing (but it was due to low odds). So after all this I decided to bet, but for the first time ever, the two bookies I can get multi bets at (conference south league) were below the minimum odds of 1.60 so I did not place the bet. I managed to get on the other two and the draw got very very lucky. The other was a good win.

Onto the results.

Tennis made a comeback with $5,100 profit, the NAB cup ended with $2,100 profit and a nice profit for the tournament, good signs for the season ahead. Rugby had its first losing week, shedding $800. After the shocking NBL result, it ended the week up $250. NBA also made a tiny profit. NHL started up again after the Olympics and 95% of games are going over and luckily the model was on the over for most of these games. $5,500 profit and back evens for the season after being down a fairly hefty sum. So the winner of the Daily25 awards makes me around $12,000 for the week.

Soccer has made a blistering comeback, down $60k at one stage and now just down $10k. Another tipster pushes into positive territory and Skeeve is also close. FB Elite seems to have turned the corner with $8,200 profit this week and Skeeve added $6,900. Combo FI continues its year long form with $1,800 and TFA added a further $5,000.

ClubGOWI had a poor week with a $3,000 loss and I am still yet to see a profit from his Soccer picks. I think he feels that he needs to have bets every day and sometimes there is nothing good but he is expected to send out bets. After the season I will do some analysis on what leagues he seems to excel at. I wish he kept a real list of results so I could do some proper testing, but I will need to rely on my own data. Nics Picks never looked like winning this week and lost another $775, really need a second win of the season.

I will be writing a post in the coming days about Pinnacle Sports. This time I feel they have taken things too far in regards to a timer being implemented for some bets, it seems they are now referring a few ClubGOWI bets to a trader and this would be the first step on a very slippery slope to being just like every other bookie. I was asked by the Pinnacle rep on Twitter to let them answer my questions before I post anything, I have given them 36 hours and still no reply. There are a number of things I want to discuss, but it seems they are now targeting clients of successful tipsters and this just isn’t on. They say they don’t limit winners and work like a traditional bookie, but this behavior shows they will at the end of the day, do anything to stop people making money from them. Just like all the rest.

Still need to get around to also replying to Graeme and I’m hoping I can find some free time this week, but can’t promise anything.

Other good news that none of you would care about is that I just got back from my indoor soccer Grand final and we won the game easily. I scored 2 beauties and set up 3 others. Not that I’m talking myself up or anything, but I’m very talented. haha

What an amazing run and it has mirrored last season as I kept saying earlier. If it continues to mirror, there is at least another month of profits before a small dip and then more profits to round out the season. Well over $250,000 now and 1/4 of the way to a real milestone. Long may it continue.

Total profit for the week was $30,675.26

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,700,746.34
Profit/Loss: $89,201.59
POT: 3.30%
Bets Placed: 4,649
Won: 1717
Lost: 2677
Half Payout: 21
Refunded: 234
Winning %: 39.1%
Total profit per day: $276,723.68/ 1343 = $206.04
Total Turnover: $12,450,575.87
Total ROI: 2.22%

ATP – SP $326,184.00 $4,062.46 1.2%
week profit/loss: 5170.23

AFL H2H – SP $31,795.00 $4,893.75 15.4%
week profit/loss: 1420.20

AFL Line – SP $207,830.00 $41,317.17 19.9%
week profit/loss: 742.50

Rugby SP $7,113.00 $3,792.22 53.3%
week profit/loss: -767.43

FB Elite $185,000.00 $4,339.00 2.3%
week profit/loss: 8200

Skeeve $88,498.00 $(2,867.70) -3.2%
week profit/loss: 6900

Combo FI $105,215.00 $17,092.88 16.2%
week profit/loss: 1805

TFA $509,126.00 $(28,337.08) -5.56%
week profit/loss: 5017.50

ClubGowi $168,391.00 $7,183.60 4.3%
week profit/loss: -2954.60

NP Win $19,629.34 $(5,511.34) -28.1%
week profit/loss: -775

NHL Totals $253,928.00 $(217.40) -0.1%
week profit/loss: 5556.99

NBL Totals $92,899.00 $27,660.89 29.8%
week profit/loss: 567

NBL Line $83,738.00 $26,943.67 32.2%
week profit/loss: -302

NBA Totals $129,964.00 $912.79 0.7%
week profit/loss: -880.86

NBA H2H $83,318.00 $8,468.01 10.2%
week profit/loss: 975.73

03. March 2014 by admin
Categories: update | 11 comments

2013 Daily25 Awards

Today marks the day of the 1st annual Daily25 awards. These awards are for the tipsters that have provided the best service and highest profit over the 2013 period. This is pretty much a bit of fun to say thanks to the people who I pay to help make me money. Throughout the year I will degrade, yell at and pretty much shit on every single tipster I follow. They all have bad weeks and I need something to write about each week, and boy does a good fight generate traffic. But at the end of the day, many of these guys do a fantastic job and deserve some credit.

This years award winner is ………… Jonno at Sportpunter.com.

sportpunter

Jonno with his spoils

Jonno with his spoils

We’ll that was a no brainer. Sportpunter models made $129,981 profit in 2013. My total profit in 2013 was $113,171 so all other models combined actually lost me money (bit unfair to some tipsters as they did make a profit).

The SBC does a good job with their Hall of Fame stuff, but giving Hall of Fame status to a losing service over a season seems a bit silly to me. That’s why these awards are much better and more highly sort after then any other on the internet*.

These awards have a few criteria.

  1. Service must have made a profit
  2. Whatever I say goes

The fight for the Soccer trophy for season 13/14 looks like a foregone conclusion with only one service in profit so far with only a few months left.

Meet Fluffy Nuts and Weirdo.
furryballsWeirdo

*may not be true

27. February 2014 by admin
Categories: news | Leave a comment

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