Another month hitting it’s target. January saw a turnover of $443,059.00 with a $20,595.02 profit which is a ROI of 4.65%.
We had two losing Sports which were Tennis and Soccer. Tennis would have been much worse, but ClubGOWI won a big bet with Li Na capturing the Aussie open crown. He also did great with the rest of the Women’s tournament.
ClubGOWI really needs his own section, as it isn’t just Soccer that he advises. I have actually made a loss with his Soccer bets, but his Tennis and NFL have made a healthy profit. We have had a few heated arguments over email as he feels I cast a bad light over his service. Even though I can be quite harsh in my criticism of tipsters, I feel my assessment is honest given the facts at hand. I’m sure you are all sick of me banging on about attainable odds and how tipsters record these. For every tipster I follow they do this differently, some just take best price, some take best Pinnacle price at release, some take best price 15 minutes after release, others take an average. There are a million ways to skin this cat and just as many validations for it. At the end of the day I feel the recorded odds should be those that the majority of members can get.
Keith posted his January results on his blog and there were 153 bets, which produced 32.9 units profit at a ROI of 21.58%. This should have equated to a $13,160 profit for me. My profits were 30% less at $9,345 at a ROI of 15.1%. I am at my computer 95% of the time at release and over January my odds were 4.9% worse then advised. I believe being in Australia that I may be getting the emails a few seconds after everyone else and as we know by the current uproar of Sporting Data, this makes a huge difference. It’s just something I will need to accept and the 5% worse odds correlates to a 5% worse ROI. Taking this into consideration and looking at his historical return of 13%, I can hope for a best of 8% return. I would take that any day of the week.
The service is professionally run and the write ups are amazing. If you have the time, you can actually find more of your own bets from the information given. My whole philosophy is the least amount of work for the greatest gain, so I just bet the red selections and that’s it. Still early days for this service, but it has potential.
The Sportpunter ATP model had a amazing first day at the Aussie open with over $7,000 profit, followed by loss after loss after loss for the rest of the month. A $6,600 loss for the month. Football Elite started a mini comeback with $4,000 profit but Skeeve added a $7,000 loss to start the year. Combo Football Investor is my most consistent service, making $6,100 for the month. TFA started the year with an absolute shocker, losing $16,500 and even more of my faith in the model.
The winners were as per usual Basketball, and a few suprises with Golf, NFL and NHL adding some much needed profit.
The NBL model alone added $18,600 profit and NBA historically produces a loss from the new year, but managed to scrape a small $650 profit. Nics Picks finally got a win, a very nice $6,500 profit and a few second places which could have really made it an amazing month. NHL arrested the terrible slide it was on with $5,700 profit.
NBL has really saved my arse this season. Soccer has been an absolute nightmare and a break-even season would be a massive win for me from here. After an $85,000 loss in September and October, we have regained $79,000 in the past 3 months. As I said in the December review, this is the time of year where my graph shoots up rapidly, so far so good and I hope for an equally strong February.
Tennis $97,001.00 $(1,569.53) -1.6%
Soccer $185,708.00 $(8,536.00) -4.6%
Basketball $88,445.00 $19,859.08 22.5%
Golf $4,900.00 $4,961.00 101.2%
NFL $7,705.00 $730.10 9.5%
NHL $58,700.00 $5,750.37 9.8%
ATP – SP $91,701.00 $(6,629.53) -7.2%
FB Elite $36,000.00 $4,075.00 11.3%
Skeeve $19,200.00 $(6,960.00) -36.3%
Combo FI $17,625.00 $6,101.38 34.6%
6-22 $2,750.00 $(1,312.50) -47.7%
7-21 $4,750.00 $(910.00) -19.2%
7-22 $2,250.00 $(1,062.50) -47.2%
8-21 $3,000.00 $(1,830.00) -61.0%
8-22 $1,750.00 $(1,500.00) -85.7%
31-42 $13,750.00 $(1,832.50) -13.3%
33-41 $2,500.00 $(1,385.00) -55.4%
33-42 $2,000.00 $(885.00) -44.3%
TOX $8,000.00 $(1,644.50) -20.6%
STOY $7,750.00 $(1,644.50) -21.2%
STOZ $11,250.00 $(4,567.00) -40.6%
D3-D6 $2,833.00 $1,033.42 36.5%
D3-D7 $1,500.00 $1,037.50 69.2%
NP Win $2,700.00 $6,525.00 241.7%
NBL Totals $21,879.00 $17,601.80 80.5%
NBL Line $19,286.00 $1,010.95 5.2%
NBA Totals $26,310.00 $(96.96) -0.4%
NBA H2H $21,570.00 $743.29 3.4%
NFL Totals $2,105.00 $(368.70) -17.5%
NHL Totals $58,700.00 $5,750.37 9.8%
ClubGowi $61,900.00 $9,345.00 15.1%
The great run had to end sometime and I’m glad it’s a tiny loss. This should just be a small blip on the way to $100,000 for the season. We had the usual winners and losers this week. It also seems I caused quite an uproar with a few comments I made last week. Graeme over at TFA replied to some things I said and it’s a great read. I will reply to it once I get some free time.
I’ll gloss over this weeks results and try and not say too much this week.
ATP continues to struggle but made a tiny profit. FB Elite ended it’s good run with a $2,600 loss and Skeeve continues his horrendous tipping with a $2,400 loss, this week he blamed the wind and terrible pitches????? really, I would assume if you were studying all these teams in great detail, such a simple thing like the weather and pitch conditions would be part of your thought process? I don’t think I have ever read a comment from Skeeve that is a simple “I’m currently shit at the moment, not sure what it is”. Combo FI just keeps pumping out the wins and it’s surprising as I always assumed his picks were very close to TFA’s which had a tiny loss this week. ClubGOWI also had a small loss, but so close to a nice win with Hunter Mahan in the Golf crumbling to finish outside the Top 5.
Nic’s picks lost $275 this week, the loss was lessened as after talking with Bryan I have put trades in place to break even if any players odds come down far enough. The previously mentioned Mahan went into the lead in the final round and his price dropped below 2.25 and my lay was taken. We had chances in the other tournament too but they did not pan out.
NHL lost $2,100, NBL made $2,700 and NBA added $2,100. Pleasantly surprised with $61,000 profit between both Basketball models.
A very quite week but we have a heap of bets on the midweek soccer games. Hoping for a good start to the week.
Total loss for the week was $529.62
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,398,677.00
Bets Placed: 4,069
Half Payout: 17
Winning %: 38.5%
Total profit per day: $226,498.61 / 1322 = $171.33
Total Turnover: $12,148,506.53
Total ROI: 1.86%
ATP – SP $277,828.00 $1,060.40 0.4%
week profit/loss: 502.32
FB Elite $152,000.00 $(3,181.00) -2.1%
week profit/loss: -2581
Skeeve $73,840.00 $(10,458.10) -14.2%
week profit/loss: -2400
Combo FI $85,215.00 $10,711.38 12.6%
week profit/loss: 2335
TFA $454,126.00 $(39,286.08) -8.65%
week profit/loss: -125
ClubGowi $128,140.00 $5,357.40 4.2%
week profit/loss: -770.10
NP Win $17,648.00 $(3,605.00) -20.4%
week profit/loss: -275
NHL Totals $247,425.00 $(5,774.39) -2.3%
week profit/loss: -2065.63
NBL Totals $87,917.00 $25,275.35 28.7%
week profit/loss: 2592.50
NBL Line $70,509.00 $24,725.17 35.1%
week profit/loss: 89.67
NBA Totals $115,099.00 $2,192.75 1.9%
week profit/loss: 1055.38
NBA H2H $75,229.00 $8,522.10 11.3%
week profit/loss: 1052.24
December was what I call an average month. $18,000 – $22,000 per month is what I am expecting from this venture. There has been no year where it has averaged anything close to that, but those are my expectations. To repeat my goal, it’s a $4 – $5 million turnover per year and a 5% ROI. That’s about $400,000 turnover each month and a $21k profit. I aim for this goal knowing it probably isn’t achievable and am usually happy to hit half the target which is just over $100,000 per season.
This month I turned over $383,623.00 for a profit of $18,003.90 which is a ROI of 4.69%. Pretty much right on target.
The Tennis season started at the end of December and did not get off to a great start. Golf also continued its piss poor results for 2013 and NHL lost a further $5,000 after losing $7,000 in November. These losses all up were just over $8,000.
The winners were Soccer with $9,400, Basketball with $13,000 and NFL with $3,400. This is pretty much a carbon copy of November.
Breaking Soccer down further we see that Skeeve and Combo Football Investor both made $5,100. These were great back to back months for Skeeve and brought the losses for the year to something more manageable. Football Elite had a horrendous month losing almost $14,000. I tested the Insider Betting tipster and after losing $2,000 I quickly realised there was no point in following it long term. I also started following ClubGOWI and lost a further $2,000. The Football Analyst also had back to back great months with $17,500 profit. As Soccer is usually 50% of my monthly turnover, I would hope for $10,000 profit each month.
NBL continued it’s amazing season with $6,900 profit and NBA did just as well with $6,700 profit.
Half the profit we saw in November, but still a great return. This is historically the period where I make all the profits for the year, so I would hope for the next few months we see a similar results.
Tennis $13,597.00 $(1,453.03) -10.7%
Soccer $182,808.00 $9,418.97 5.2%
Basketball $67,365.00 $13,153.78 19.5%
Golf $1,650.00 $(1,650.00) -100.0%
NFL $37,238.00 $3,445.75 9.3%
NHL $80,965.00 $(4,911.57) -6.1%
ATP – SP $13,597.00 $(1,453.03) -10.7%
FB Elite $33,000.00 $(13,880.00) -42.1%
Skeeve $6,000.00 $5,142.00 85.7%
Combo FI $21,500.00 $5,140.00 23.9%
6-22 $4,750.00 $4,032.50 84.9%
7-21 $4,500.00 $1,376.50 30.6%
7-22 $2,500.00 $(302.00) -12.1%
8-21 $2,750.00 $403.50 14.7%
8-22 $2,000.00 $(576.50) -28.8%
31-42 $14,500.00 $4,454.50 30.7%
33-41 $2,000.00 $1,995.00 99.8%
33-42 $1,500.00 $500.00 33.3%
TOX $13,000.00 $1,585.00 12.2%
STOY $12,750.00 $2,771.00 21.7%
STOZ $16,350.00 $3,330.00 20.4%
D3-D6 $2,250.00 $(1,402.50) -62.3%
D3-D7 $1,500.00 $(652.50) -43.5%
NP Win $1,650.00 $(1,650.00) -100.0%
NBL Totals $21,490.00 $(1,876.30) -8.7%
NBL Line $11,669.00 $8,785.58 75.3%
NBA Totals $18,836.00 $5,719.90 30.4%
NBA H2H $15,928.00 $1,045.77 6.6%
NFL Totals $33,398.00 $2,439.55 7.3%
NHL Totals $80,965.00 $(4,911.57) -6.1%
Insider Betting $2,000.00 $(2,000.00) -100.0%
ClubGowi $43,240.00 $(2,012.50) -4.7%
More profit added this week and I’m back to where I was just over 6 months ago. In those 6 months I have lost and regained $95,000. These are crazy swings, but the way it is in this game. If your thinking of starting along this same path, the number one lesson I can give is to be sure you can cope with these swings. They are repeated over and over again and there are ways to minimise them, but in doing so you will also minimise your profit. Once again this week threw up some very frustrating moments, another second in the golf, some near wins in the Soccer and a massive loss on a favorite for TFA. Add to that the usual buzzer beaters, 93rd minute goals, and general unluckiness that usually occurs on anything I bet on. Even with my lack of luck, we continue to march towards a healthy profit and with 5 months left in year 4, we could still reach that $100k profit.
We had Bubba Watson leading by 2 with 1 round to go and Ryan Moore in 3rd place. Either player winning would have produced $3-6k profit. Bubba had it all day and then missed a putt from a meter out to hand the victory to Stadler. That’s two seconds in 2 weeks. Very very frustrating. A $775 loss for the week.
TFA is now really starting to frustrate me, Even though the higher level systems are about break-even, I believe most of the subscribers would be using the combined systems as they are the ones that have historically produced the best results. I believe having so many systems is a bit of a cop-out at times and saw it with Formbet as well. With so many systems, one is always going to be winning and Formbet goes to great lengths to let people know of any one system that is ahead, but overall the system has a massive loss. TFA isn’t so blatant in regards to this but does let people know that it isn’t up to him if they win or lose. This is the beauty of these sort of systems for the tipster, they are always going to have a stream of players winning and letting others know how great they are, and the losers just leave. I have a lot of respect for tipsters like Skeeve and FB Elite who back themselves completely. There is no hiding behind anything in what they do. I guess my real frustration lies in how bad I want The Football Analyst to succeed. It has high turnover at long odds and the potential to add a massive amount of profit per year, but the fact that I am down after almost 2 full seasons is not a good sign. I really do not want to drop the service, but at -$40,000 so far, it is not looking good.
ATP had another losing week with a $600 loss, the NFL season ended and I will do a review of the Sportpunter model this week. NHL did well with $3,300 profit and NBA lost $240. NBL continues to do what it does with $5,900 profit and now over $47,000 profit for the season at well over 30% ROI.
ClubGOWI was terrible this week losing $3,500 but this should be much more as I decided to bet the NFL bets he put up but were not official bets. The way he read this game was as if he had already seen it and came back in time to let us know what the result would be, this produced $2,000 profit. I have now had 234 bets and bet a total of $115,000 with ClubGOWI and there are still a few concerns. Soccer is by far the largest sport bet and after $97,000 worth of bets I am down $1,000. Golf is also down $2,000 but that is to be expected with the sort of odds you get with Golf. NFL and Tennis are doing amazing with $5,000 and $4,000 profit respectively. As Soccer accounts for 85% of the turnover, I’m hoping for a bit of an improvement there. I have also noted that Soccer is also the one sport that I get significantly poorer odds and the other sports I can usually equal the stated odds, this would also cause a significant difference in my results. Still early days and I will do a more thorough review once I have turned over half a million.
One final rant and it’s once again for Skeeve, who has now made the decision not to bet on League 2 games. It seems eventually all he will have left to bet on is conference south games, played in the second half of the season only on Saturdays and only if the wind is blowing north at a rate of 4 knots and two players are wearing red socks. It’s fine to have a niche, but this is getting a bit ridiculous. I think it is to his detriment, as there will be fewer bets and this of course leads to much higher varience. I’ve said it for the last few months, he has repeatedly said, “don’t worry, this period is the best one and we will all make profit”. But what happens when varience kicks in and we dont? The season is still salvageable, but I’m not so sure about the long term success. A $1,700 loss for the week.
Again my wisdom is on show through this blog, over the last few weeks I have said that Football Elite seemed to be on the cusp of some profitable weeks and last week there was a very nice win, but that was nothing compared to this week. A $9,000 profit and so close to 2 more big priced winners. It brings the service back to just a $600 loss and if things can stay the way they have for the past few weeks, we can slowly make our way to some profits and hopefully get back the $20,000 I lost last season.
Combo Football Investor is the last of the Soccer models and once again, week after week, a nice profit is made. This week resulted in a very healthy $3,100. The only Soccer model in profit.
Once again a nice healthy profit, anything over $5,000 a week is great. Hoping that the current $42,000 soccer loss is wiped out in the last few months of the season and for February to be very profitable as we move into a new AFL season. AFL has been the one constant for me and I hope it continues this way for many years to come. Looking forward to another exciting week of betting.
Total profit for the week was $11,953.72
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,307,071.00
Bets Placed: 3,900
Half Payout: 15
Winning %: 38.3%
Total profit per day: $227,028.23 / 1315 = $172.64
Total Turnover: $12,056,900.53
Total ROI: 1.88%
ATP – SP $254,793.00 $558.08 0.2%
week profit/loss: -594.27
FB Elite $145,000.00 $(660.00) -0.5%
week profit/loss: 8950
Skeeve $71,440.00 $(8,058.10) -11.3%
week profit/loss: -1686
Combo FI $80,715.00 $8,376.38 10.4%
week profit/loss: 3145
TFA $439,126.00 $(39,161.08) -8.91%
week profit/loss: -2512.50
ClubGowi $114,540.00 $6,127.50 5.3%
week profit/loss: -3501
NFL Totals $104,169.00 $(707.94) -0.7%
week profit/loss: 0
NP Win $17,148.00 $(3,330.00) -19.4%
week profit/loss: -775
NHL Totals $234,847.00 $(3,708.76) -1.6%
week profit/loss: 3336.07
NBL Totals $83,622.00 $22,682.85 27.1%
week profit/loss: -90.20
NBL Line $69,136.00 $24,635.50 35.6%
week profit/loss: 5920.50
NBA Totals $111,542.00 $1,137.37 1.0%
week profit/loss: 484.39
NBA H2H $71,461.00 $7,469.86 10.5%
week profit/loss: -723.27
So another profitable week to finish off January. We had a second in the golf (missed $9,000) and an amazing OT loss in the basketball which cost a further $3,000. I had $380 on Sacremento at $7.50 and they were up by 4 with 15 seconds left. The other team goes for a three and hit it, but are also fouled in the process. You can imagine how overtime went. I rarely watch any games these days but had flicked over thinking the game had finished. I’m positive these sort of things happen every day, so just another bit of luck that didn’t go my way. A strong end to January and it’s good to be in profit for 2014.
I’m glad the Aussie open is over, We ended with a small win on Stan, but apart from day 1, every day lost a fair chunk of money. This week ended with a $300 loss. ClubGowi did very well with his WTA picks and $3,000 was won on Li Na winning at $11. Hoping the smaller tournaments start returning some of the losses.
We had a big chance to go back to back big priced winners in the Golf this week but it wasn’t to be. A $700 loss there. The NHL lost $2,800. NBA made $1,100 and the NBL added $7,700 more profit. If the NBL continue this run, I will make more then the average player makes in a season.
I think ClubGowi needs to be separated from Soccer, as it has been making most of it’s profits elsewhere. A fantastic week in the Tennis which resulted in a further $3,700 profit.
Football Elite started the week with a great run and then as usual had a poor Sunday, but a great week nonetheless and $4,900 profit. Skeeve lost $1,200, but this should have been a larger loss, but as a game was postponed, i decided not to bet the single bet, saving myself another $1,200. But i did bet the other double earlier and my bookie says the other game has been rescheduled and won’t pay out the single win, will add that result next week. Combo FI made a whopping $47 and The Football Analyst lost $4,100, and starting to get really worried again about this service. We have a heap of midweek bets for it and if the losses continue then it won’t be long before we are in very uncomfortable waters again.
Another solid week and 2014 is looking good. If history is anything to go on, we can expect a strong climb in the next few months, and then pretty much no movement for the 8 months after that. I may have to consider doing a Skeeve and only placing bets during certain times of the year. This week is looking like a busy period and could result in some big gains.
Total profit for the week was $8,327.85
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,203,317.00
Bets Placed: 3,704
Half Payout: 15
Winning %: 38.2%
Total profit per day: $215,074.51 / 1308 = $164.43
Total Turnover: $11,953,146.53
Total ROI: 1.8%
ATP – SP $244,013.00 $1,152.35 0.5%
week profit/loss: -325.76
FB Elite $133,000.00 $(9,610.00) -7.2%
week profit/loss: 4900
Skeeve $65,440.00 $(6,372.10) -9.7%
week profit/loss: -1200
Combo FI $74,715.00 $5,231.38 7.0%
week profit/loss: 47
TFA $415,626.00 $(36,648.58) -7.94%
week profit/loss: -4110
ClubGowi $99,740.00 $9,628.50 9.7%
week profit/loss: 3755
NFL Totals $104,169.00 $(707.94) -0.7%
week profit/loss: 0
NP Win $16,373.00 $(2,555.00) -15.6%
week profit/loss: -700
NHL Totals $226,453.00 $(7,044.83) -3.1%
week profit/loss: -2873.09
NBL Totals $80,652.00 $22,773.05 28.2%
week profit/loss: 7220.10
NBL Line $62,281.00 $18,715.00 30.0%
week profit/loss: 532.25
NBA Totals $105,802.00 $652.98 0.6%
week profit/loss: 153.98
NBA H2H $65,521.00 $8,193.13 12.5%
week profit/loss: 928.37
Always love weeks like this. It’s why I’ve stuck around for the past 4 years while 99% of other people who start these types of blogs are gone after a few months. I practice the ancient art of patience and am rewarded for it on weeks like this. Last week I said this would be a +20k week and I guess what you ask for is given (Supermodel in my bed next week). We had two tipsters who had never made a profit for me get some big wins. One I had followed for 6 months and only ever had 1 win and another a new tipster I was following and had been giving shit about his prices (which i still stand by). Add in the ever profitable NBL model and some other sprinkling of wins and we finally get back into a decent profit for the year.
I have decided to start using Twitter now and have never publicised my handle, but if you want to follow me you can do so here.
Let’s shake things up and instead of going by sport we will go by which ones profited and which ones lost this week.
Start with the negatives and the Sportpunter ATP model sucked balls this week. An $8,000 loss and not the start to the season I was hoping for. I didn’t think it was going this badly until I checked the results, but the big winning first day was on last weeks results and since then it has given it all back and then some. A real shame, as these big majors are where I usually make a fair bit of my money. Still early days for a model that has performed amazingly over the past 11 years. TFA had a mini resurrection before dying in the arse again. A $4,500 loss and hopes of any profit this season are gone, hoping to claw my way back to a small loss over the coming months and rethink my position for the next season. FB Elite lost $1,000 but I can see this model ready to burst out of its funk in the coming weeks, lots of draws and near misses and only 1 or two weeks of a bit of luck and Elite will be back.
Now onto the profits. Skeeve had a great week and missed another big win by 5 minutes. I always bet late and one game which was on two multis was postponed and I did not want to bet straight up on the other selections so left them, they both won easily. If the game had gone ahead, instead of a $3,300 win, it could have been in the 6-7k area. Combo FI seems to be my go to guy, it will never set the world on fire but provides me with consistency in an otherwise crazy world. A further $1,600 profit and sitting at 7.1% ROI.
I started following ClubGOWI after he had an amazing run and a few readers pointing me in his direction, as with any tipster after a good run, variance kicked in and a number of losses came to even out the good run. That’s when I got involved. As i’ve said many times, the write ups are in depth and Keith has a strong understanding of not just soccer, but also Tennis and NFL. I also wanted to move away from following model based systems and have one or two tipsters who used their knowledge more then a computer and pure stats. I have had issues with prices and know others have to, but again, this is something we all sadly have to accept from any successful tipsters. This week really showed what this service can achieve when it hits its straps. A $7,500 win with some great tipping in the Soccer and Tennis. I’m glad this service was brought to my attention, as it has a lot of potential.
The other service that was not performing well was Nics value picks, again I started after an amazing run. Until this week I had 1 winner and a few second places. Again, getting odds was a hassle, so much so that I decided to accept much higher variance and not bet the places as they would not have been profitable. I can get within 5% of quoted odds on wins which is just acceptable. My patience over the last few months had been wearing thin and after hitting a $10,000 loss I wasn’t sure how much longer to follow (I like to give everyone a full season though). Well, thankfully my patience was duly rewarded with a win at odds of $123 (9.6% worse odds then the recorded ones of $136). A $8,500 profit for the week and while not yet putting me into profit, it has given a hell of a lot of breathing space and with some luck over the next few months, following this tipster might just pay off.
Onto the profitable Sportpunter models. As seen above, Tennis was terrible. NHl Totals on the other hand has made a great comeback this week, adding $6,400 profit. NBA added $2,500 and NBL continues to amaze me with $4,500 profit. The NBL is another perfect example of patience, until this season it has broke even or made a small loss, but the potential was there and this season has really outshone. With such a small amount of bets, this is purely variance, but variance in the right direction.
So that’s it for what turned out to be an amazing week. Hoping to finish off January with another big winning week and then take the profit to $50,000 before another AFL season starts. So the prediction for this week is back to back $20,000 profit weeks with TFA having one of those spectacular weeks and Skeeve hitting 100%. NHL will get back into profit for the season and NBL will continue what is the greatest run of form I have ever seen. Until next week.
Total profit for the week was $21,040.52
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,130,657.00
Bets Placed: 3,580
Half Payout: 10
Winning %: 38.3%
Total profit per day: $206,746.66 / 1301 = $158.91
Total Turnover: $11,880,486.53
Total ROI: 1.74%
ATP – SP $239,971.00 $1,478.11 0.6%
week profit/loss: -7,819.03
FB Elite $122,000.00 $(14,510.00) -11.9%
week profit/loss: -1050
Skeeve $63,040.00 $(5,172.10) -8.2%
week profit/loss: 3360
Combo FI $72,715.00 $5,184.38 7.1%
week profit/loss: 1566.88
TFA $409,626.00 $(32,538.58) -7.94%
week profit/loss: -4507.58
ClubGowi $85,040.00 $5,873.50 6.9%
week profit/loss: 7569
NFL Totals $104,169.00 $(707.94) -0.7%
week profit/loss: 0
NP Win $15,673.00 $(1,855.00) -11.8%
week profit/loss: 8525
NHL Totals $215,881.00 $(4,171.74) -1.9%
week profit/loss: 6449.29
NBL Totals $72,667.00 $15,552.95 21.4%
week profit/loss: 4295.50
NBL Line $59,506.00 $18,182.75 30.6%
week profit/loss: 186.70
NBA Totals $101,639.00 $499.00 0.5%
week profit/loss: 2805
NBA H2H $59,198.00 $7,264.76 12.3%
week profit/loss: -340.24
So just over 6 months in and $2 million has been bet. Just over $10,000 a day and nothing at all to show for it. After the Soccer this week, I’m actually relived to be where I am. The Australian Open started and the first day was a welcome relief. I’ve also had a few run ins with Keith who runs ClubGOWI. All that and more in the words below.
Lets start with the sport I love to hate. Soccer sucked massively this week. $17,000 loss for the week. Skeeve says in his emails that people sending him complaints doesn’t do anyone any good. Actually, I’m sure it helps the person sending the email a fair bit, I don’t send emails, but vent my frustration on this site. Skeeve has also said he no longer reads blogs that refer to him, so he doesn’t see these rants, and really, they are not for him, they are much more for me. Get ready for this weeks one… Over the past 2 years he has been terrible, whatever knowledge or edge he had has all but dissipated. He will continue to get a few clients over the coming years as his long term numbers still look good, but how good he was 5 years or more ago has absolutely no bearing on how he has gone in the past few years. For the amount he charges, there is no value in his service whatsoever. I’m not saying I won’t make a profit this season, but I do know that long term I won’t. I will finish off this season in the hopes of his so called fantastic second half of the years and then I will be done. A $7,200 loss for the week and $10,000 since he upped stakes again. Football Elite is pretty much in the same boat, living off long past results. I see a more simplistic approach here and in my mind it still has potential. If I can break even or better then I will really have to think about its future. Last season was pathetic and if things don’t turn around soon then this season could eclipse even that. A small $840 loss this week. Combo FI just trudges along with small profits each week, I’ll take 5.3% ROI over a season any day. $217 profit. I keep defending TFA, I’m not sure if it’s because I really want it to work and make some real profit, or because I like Graeme, whatever the case, if it doesn’t get some big wins in the next few months, I may also have to say goodbye to this service. An $8,000 loss this week. I sent an email to Keith who runs ClubGOWI asking where he gets his advised odds as I place bets the second they come out and rarely find the prices he says are available, I have also heard the same from 5 different people following the service. He was quite abrupt with me, saying I was accusing him of being dodgy. I was just asking to see if I could get these prices. I told him I was getting an average of 3-5% worse and on some games 10%, he said it was almost impossible to get 10% worse and then in the next line said he doesn’t track so wouldn’t know. I do track and do know. Again, I’m not saying that I won’t make a profit, I actually see potential in his service, but if anyone is thinking of subscribing then realise that the recorded odds are not achievable. A $1,150 loss and still yet to see any profit from this service. Well that’s my week of Soccer and Sunday morning things were looking terrible, with a loss of over $20,000 for the week. Luckily a few other sports came to the party.
All I can say once again is thank the lord for Jonno over at Sportpunter. The NBL model had a killer week, a massive $8,500 profit even with me having to spread my bets over many bookies and taking terrible odds. It’s a pain in the arse at times to place bets, but he is amazing at these niche sports. The bigger sports didn’t go so well. NFL lost $370, NBA lost $880 and NHL made $2,100 but is still well down for the year. His ATP model started the year terribly, but day 1 of the Australian Open produced $7,000 profit, I had another big winner but had bet at a match complete bookie and the other guy retired in the 3rd set, that one hurt. A $2,000 profit for the week in the Tennis and hoping for a nice big win for this tournament.
Nics picks lost another $425 and is over the $10,000 lost mark. Got very close this week though, hoping for a strong start from him as my patience is wearing thin. I have been advised of another golf tipster who has shown potential and instead of quitting completely, I might double down and follow both. That’s just how I roll, instead of making the smart decision, I just throw more money at the problem in the hopes of finding that elusive great tipster. It’s happened once and I’ll continue to hope lightning can strike twice until my bank is depleted.
So that’s it for another week, in the end a $6,000 loss was a relief. This week the aussie open will contribute an extra 5k, Skeeve, TFA, FB Elite and ClubGOWI will all perform exceptionally and contribute $15,000 and the other sports will add another $10,000 profit for one of those rare +$20,000 weeks. Yep, I am on my 4th cup of coffee and may be delusional.
Total loss for the week was $5,945.29
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,021,744.00
Bets Placed: 3,404
Half Payout: 9
Winning %: 38.0%
Total profit per day: $185,706.14 / 1294 = $143.51
Total Turnover: $11,771,573.53
Total ROI: 1.58%
ATP – SP $206,307.00 $9,297.14 4.5%
week profit/loss: 2055.08
FB Elite $112,000.00 $(13,460.00) -12.0%
week profit/loss: -840
Skeeve $57,040.00 $(8,532.10) -15.0%
week profit/loss: -7200
Combo FI $68,590.00 $3,617.50 5.3%
week profit/loss: 217.50
TFA $396,293.00 $(28,031.00) -5.34%
week profit/loss: -7952.50
ClubGowi $71,540.00 $(1,695.50) -2.4%
week profit/loss: -1158.80
NFL Totals $104,169.00 $(707.94) -0.7%
week profit/loss: -368.70
NP Win $14,973.00 $(10,380.00) -69.3%
week profit/loss: -425
NHL Totals $207,255.00 $(10,621.03) -5.1%
week profit/loss: 2092.02
NBL Totals $69,117.00 $11,257.45 16.3%
week profit/loss: 5946.40
NBL Line $55,640.00 $17,996.05 32.3%
week profit/loss: 2574
NBA Totals $95,118.00 $(2,306.00) -2.4%
week profit/loss: -664.72
NBA H2H $54,170.00 $7,605.00 14.0%
week profit/loss: -220.57
This post was so close to being one of those +$20k ones, and being a new year it would have been a fantastic start to 2014. Instead it’s just a basic winning week. Once again everything was looking great until the weekend, and then a bunch of losses took away all the hard earned profit for the week. Still in profit for the year now and hope to stay that way for the next 6 months.
The American sports had a shocker this week and January is usually when I stop following the NBA, but it has seemed a weird season, so I will be following it all the way through this year. NBA lost $4,600 this week and NHL lost $4,000. There were no NFL bets.
The Tennis started the week strongly, but gave most of those wins back at the end of the week. It made a profit of $650. NBL lost $1,600.
We finally had a turnaround for FB Elite, making a profit for the first time since I can remember. $2,000 added to the bank, but Skeeve was back to his old ways as soon as he raised his bets, a $2,400 loss there and this period is going to really make or break Skeeve, as he has been explaining off his poor form by pretty much guaranteeing a big winning second half of the season, I’m not so sure this is going to be the case. For his long term success and my bank, I hope I’m proved very wrong. Combo FI just chugs along with small wins each week, a further $765 to the bank and TFA had another fantastic week with $11,000 profit. I slept through my alarm and missed $3,000 profit on one bet. Hoping to wipe of that last $20,000 loss and make some profit for the year and continue again next season and hopefully make some real profit with this model. ClubGOWI made $1,500 but I am quite frustrated with the recorded prices, they are not achievable and I am getting 5-10% worse odds which is likely to make this service another one of those that looks good on paper, but in real life is not so good. For all the shit I give Skeeve and FB Elite, they are fair in their recorded odds, which makes me trust their services a lot more then these others.
Nics Picks golf started the season how it ended with another loss ($100), hoping for an early win this season to give me even a small bit of confidence.
The first week down and I’d take this profit every single week. Till next week.
Total profit for the week was $3,255.02
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,889,792.00
Bets Placed: 3,215
Half Payout: 5
Winning %: 37.9%
Total profit per day: $191,651.43/ 1287 = $148.91
Total Turnover: $11,639,621.53
Total ROI: 1.65%
ATP – SP $169,419.00 $7,242.06 4.3%
week profit/loss: 656.75
FB Elite $101,000.00 $(12,620.00) -12.5%
week profit/loss: 2065
Skeeve $49,840.00 $(1,332.10) -2.7%
week profit/loss: -2400
Combo FI $64,090.00 $3,400.00 5.3%
week profit/loss: 765
TFA $375,543.00 $(20,078.50) -5.34%
week profit/loss: 10,959.50
ClubGowi $58,640.00 $(536.70) -0.9%
week profit/loss: 1475.80
NFL Totals $102,064.00 $(339.24) -0.3%
week profit/loss: 0
NP Win $14,548.00 $(9,955.00) -68.4%
week profit/loss: -100
NHL Totals $188,574.00 $(12,713.05) -6.7%
week profit/loss: -3963.56
NBL Totals $61,513.00 $5,311.05 8.6%
week profit/loss: 1285
NBL Line $52,780.00 $15,422.05 29.2%
week profit/loss: -2865
NBA Totals $88,277.00 $(1,641.28) -1.9%
week profit/loss: -4106.47
NBA H2H $50,972.00 $7,825.57 15.4%
week profit/loss: -514
In late October I asked why Pinnacle say on their website that everyone gets the same high limits when that was clearly not true. I provided evidence but Pinnacle decided not to reply. You can find that article here.
Well I am back again with a further complaint and something I haven’t seen another book ever do before and a practice that I feel is quite unethical. Once again let me preface this by saying that Pinnacle are the best book out there and I highly recommend them. I guess I am noticing these things because I use them so much and am sure other bookmakers are also doing these sort of things.
So for the past few weeks I have noticed when placing a multi at Pinnacle the odds are always lower then you can get them straight up.
The image is of both the normal market and the parlay market. The parlay market looks different as it goes to the old style. I guess they have not incorporated it into the new asian style. As you can see (you might need to click the image to enlarge it) the vast majority of the odds are well below those available in the singles market.
As an example let’s say I wanted a multi of Macclesfield Town, Draw in Rochdale & Leeds match, and Bolton wanderers. Using the prices from the single bets I would have odds of $32.18, but if I was to place the bet for real my odds would be $31.20. That’s quite a large discrepancy.
I hope there is a simple explanation for this? I assumed bookmakers loved people who take multis as it pushes the odds even further into their favor.
How do you feel about this? Is it something you have noticed? Should Pinnacles parlay prices be the same as their normal prices or is it fine for them to do this?
I will contact Pinnacle and ask for a response. This post will be updated if they reply.
Before I even write this post I know it is going to come across as boastful. I managed to do some amazing things this year and realise I lead a very blessed life. I understand that not everyone is in the same position as me and can afford to travel the world and pretty much do whatever I want as long as there is an internet connection nearby. I’m still nowhere near where I want to be when it comes to my gambling returns, and the second half of the year has been a real shocker, but if I keep working away at it and refining my portfolio then I hope I can replicate years like this one.
I’ll do a quick recap of the profit this year and then move onto the things I did. If you didn’t know, I started this journey 3 and a half years ago on July 1st, so each year I restart my records at that time. You will notice on the blog that I am break-even for the year, that total is for the past 6 months. The totals I am about to present are for the calendar year.
Breaking this down into each sport, we can see where most of the profit came from
AFL $567,927 $74,841.51 13.18%
Tennis $489,437 $40,334.50 8.24%
Soccer $1,581,491 -$6,964.51 -0.44%
Basketball (NBA & NBL) $377,392 $32,218.22 8.54%
Baseball $660,319 -$6,854.16 -1.03%
NRL $77,888 -$144.78 -0.18%
Golf $17,023.00 $(10,186.00) -59.8%
NFL $105,904.00 $666.96 0.6%
NHL $173,859.00 $(10,739.90) -6.2%
The only real returns of note are the AFL, Tennis and Basketball models. All these are Sportpunter models. Soccer is a mix of 5-6 Tipsters and sadly none of them have impressed me yet. The Baseball, NFL and NHL are also Sportpunter models and I will be dropping some of these in 2014. Golf comes from Niks picks and has been pathetic. Just following Sportpunter models for the year would have netted me $130,466 profit and a hell of a lot less heartache, but I don’t want to rely on just one superstar. I’m glad Jonno at Sportpunter is keeping me afloat while I get to test out all these other services in the hope of finding just one or two who can return a consistent profit. The hope each year is that they just replicate their past results, but this hasn’t been the case. If such a year was to happen, I would be looking at close to $500,000 profit in a single year. I’ll continue to wish for that.
So that’s pretty much 2013 in betting terms. If you told me I would make over $100,000 every year then I would gladly take it, so I am pretty happy with the results. It’s just a shame that all the profit was made in the first 3 months and then I spent the next 9 months dealing with wild swings. I’m sure my year would have been a lot less stressful if the graph was a slow steady climb to the same figure, but it is something I have come to accept.
Now onto why I do this.
My dream, and I’m sure a lot of you would think the same, is to be able to travel the world for 6-9 months a year, meet new people, see amazing sites and learn all about new cultures and be an eternal student. I felt that betting for a living was a perfect match. I needed something that could be done while travelling.. CHECK, something that could return enough to pay for everything… CHECK (mostly) and most of all, something that I enjoyed… CHECK (most of the time).
When I’m home in Australia, my girlfriend and I would spend about $60,000 a year. I’m fairly frugal and don’t really spend money on stuff (although I love my tech). This covers bills, food, entertainment and a few smaller trips each year. It’s a very comfortable life but where I live can get fairly boring for someone my age, especially in winter. On the 5 month trip we took in 2013 we spent an average of $10,000 a month. We stayed in Airbnb places and cheap hotels the entire time, and to be honest I have no idea how we managed to spend so much. The travel was probably the most expensive aspect and I’m sure if I was to do it longer term, we would choose to stay in places for months at a time like we did in Milan. Not only was it much cheaper, but you actually feel at home after a month and then really enjoy the place in the second month. I would say $6 – 8,000 would be a reasonable amount to budget per month. So to travel 9 months of the year I would need $72,000 and about $15,000 for the 3 months back home. That’s a total of $87,000 a year to lead what for me is a dream life. There’s always random expenses and emergencies so we can round that up to $100,000.
I could go on forever about financial stuff, as I love to read financial blogs and play with numbers, but I won’t bore you any further. I’ll end the financial stuff with the dream goal. That is to have $2.5 million in investments paying around 8%. This would allow me to take out 4% a year which is $100,000 and the money should theoretically never run out. All gambling profits go towards this goal.
Now onto all the fun stuff I got to do this year.
Places I lived in or visited:
Dubai, Milan, Lake Como, Venice, Verona, Cinque Terra, Switzerland, Almafi Coast, Naples, Pompei, Rome, London, New York, Miami, Houston, Austin, Dallas, Vegas, Vancouver, LA, Honolulu, American Samoa, Fiji, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Sydney.
People I saw in concert:
Andrea Bocelli, placido domingo, many other of the best opera singers, Third eye blind, Paul McCartney, Maroon 5, Tim McGraw, Jared Leto, Bruno Mars, Miley Cyrus, Elton John, Drake, Justin Timberlake, Kesha, Phoenix, Joan Jett, Miquel, and a heap of others.
San Siro tour, Wimbledon line, Arsenal v Napoli and Galatasaray v Porto, Mets game in New York, Dallas Cowboys game.
These are just a sample of the highlights, I ate some amazing food, met some spectacular people and saw and learnt so much. It really has been an amazing year and am truly grateful to lead the life I do. I told you it would sound like I was boasting.
I hope your year was as enjoyable as mine and I hope your 2014 is even better. Let me know your 2014 goals and what you got up to in 2013.