Feb 19th – Feb 25th +$27,418.18

The yearly profit is now starting to resemble something half decent after a fantastic weekend. My arch nemesis Soccer finally gave me the sort of profit I was expecting on a much more regular basis. Still a long way to go before Soccer even hints at getting back to break even, but these weeks are what sustains me through the many months of sideways and downward movement. As I keep repeating, this is the period where I make hay and this season again it hasn’t disappointed. As always, I have something to complain about, after almost 4 years I’m still making simple mistakes and this week it cost me $2,000.

Last night I had a bet on the +9.5 line for an AFL game, I decided to see if Betfair had prices and they did, but I had not bet at Betfair on AFL for over a year and forgot that they have the teams in reverse. I ended up betting the other side and it lost. Plain and simple stupidity from me. A $1,200 loss for AFL this week instead of what should have been a profit. Tennis is still failing to impress this season but at least made a $1,000 profit. First full round of the Super 15 and another great start to a Sportpunter model with $2,400 profit. A further $3,200 profit from the NBL model, but that’s nothing new. NBA started up again and also contributed $650.

ClubGOWI and Nics Picks Golf had small losses with another second in the golf, really unlucky this season.

Onto an amazing Saturday night of Soccer. It started pathetically with Middlesborough once again failing to win and adding a $2,500 early loss. Things then quickly turned with the German league adding $6,600 profit as Hamburger (what a name) won easily. FB Elite once again had a strong start but fell away later in the week and added $4,400 profit. Skeeve officially made a loss but I made $1,000 as if there is a competing bet from another tipster, I will always side with them, this has saved me a fortune as Skeeve continues his second terrible season. Football Investor continues to impress with a further $3,200 and TFA finally had one of those Saturdays I remember fondly from my first season. It added $13,200 profit to the weekly total.

A fantastic week and things have really turned around in the past few months. It was mid December that I was sitting on -$31,000 for the season and in just 2 months and 10 days that has turned into a $58,000 profit. An amazing $89,000 run. I’m hoping this amazing run continues all the way till the end of the season and I finally have that first $100,000+ profit year.

Total profit for the week was $27,418.18

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,610,654.34
Profit/Loss: $58,526.33
POT: 2.24%
Bets Placed: 4,474
Won: 1638
Lost: 2588
Half Payout: 19
Refunded: 229
Winning %: 38.8%
Total profit per day: $246,048.42 / 1336 = $184.16
Total Turnover: $12,360,483.87
Total ROI: 1.99%

ATP – SP $314,123.00 $(1,107.77) -0.4%
week profit/loss: 1008.60

AFL H2H – SP $28,812.00 $3,473.55 12.1%
week profit/loss: -1438.50

AFL Line – SP $200,355.00 $40,574.67 20.3%
week profit/loss: 196

Rugby SP $3,866.00 $4,559.65 117.9%
week profit/loss: 2456.50

FB Elite $174,000.00 $(3,861.00) -2.2%
week profit/loss: 4460

Skeeve $84,888.00 $(9,767.70) -11.5%
week profit/loss: 1008.40

Combo FI $99,715.00 $15,287.88 15.3%
week profit/loss: 3210

TFA $499,126.00 $(33,354.58) -6.68%
week profit/loss: 13260

ClubGowi $154,791.00 $10,138.20 6.5%
week profit/loss: -240.70

NP Win $18,779.34 $(4,736.34) -25.2%
week profit/loss: -381.34

NHL Totals $247,425.00 $(5,774.39) -2.3%
week profit/loss: 0

NBL Totals $92,269.00 $27,093.89 29.4%
week profit/loss: 751.54

NBL Line $78,819.00 $27,245.67 34.6%
week profit/loss: 2472.50

NBA Totals $124,351.00 $1,793.65 1.4%
week profit/loss: 142.55

NBA H2H $81,217.00 $7,492.28 9.2%
week profit/loss: 512.63

24. February 2014 by admin
Categories: update | 2 comments

BetEzy Review 2014

I really hate being so negative on this blog, I’m sure I come across that way as sadly there is not a lot to like in this industry. Betezy is one of those companies.

It is very hard to find honest tipsters (I feel the ones I follow are). But much worse then that are the bookmakers. They really have the opportunity to allow their customers to fall in love with their service, but instead, they make sure they squeeze out every penny they can from customers and kick out anyone that will potentially see them lose a cent. I can count on one hand the amount of bookmakers that I would recommend and make me happy, and I could lose 3 fingers on that hand in an industrial accident and still have enough room to count. I could easily write an article per day about my poor treatment from just the Australian books alone and not run out of material for many years.

My story with Betezy and their clone site Dynabet would be pretty typical to most people. They welcome me with open arms and a nice bonus. Nice start. I receive welcoming emails and even a phone call. I start betting and they actually take a decent size bet and after a few months of losses, they must peg my account as a losing one. Fantastic I think. I stop playing there for a few months as they are only really good for a few seasonal sports and start receiving calls and emails to come back to play and here, have a big bonus. Not one to say no to such generosity, I take them up on the offer.

Now things start to turn, I start winning and winning and woohoo for me, more winning. They were so nice to me before, why have they gone silent now? why don’t they call me and say well done, keep up the good work? I miss my VIP service guy who would always stay in contact while I was losing. Now my bets are referred to traders and not accepted, now they don’t even go to a trader and my max bet is put down to $500 then $100 then $50. All this time, I left the bonus money in there to use once I found something I liked at big odds.

Then they take away the bonus for no reason. Over $5,000 that was mine and I followed all the rules. I called, I emailed, I threw a pigeon out of my window with a note strapped to it’s leg. But no reply. Dead silence. Payments are requested but not sent for ages, for months this goes on before I take it to the Northern Territory Racing Commission who have granted Betezy a license.

Now I need to send every communication I had and produce streams and streams of proof that I was in the wrong, not the other way around off course. After months of waiting and waiting, I am found to have done nothing wrong and the NT commission compels Betezy to put my bonus back into my account. They only put $2,500 of the $5,000 owed and when I write back to the commission I am met with silence.

I then see this as fun money and bet it all over one evening on the races, again following all their rules. I get some good winners and get the $2500 to $3500. I then lose $1000 over the next week and then request a withdrawal. After 2 weeks I am still waiting for that money and no emails are being replied to. I will be heading back to the NT commission in hopes that they will actually answer my email and get this sorted out.

If your thinking about playing at betezy.com.au or any of its clones such as dynabet.com.au then don’t be an idiot.

I will follow up on this when I have more info.

19. February 2014 by admin
Categories: Review | Leave a comment

Feb 12th – Feb 18th -$7,868.37

AHHHH, so bloody frustrating at times. Soccer just keeps piling on the losses and really it’s beginning to feel like I am going insane. The old saying of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results seems to be holding true here. Every week I expect things to turn around (even by pure random luck) and every week I get the same result. So that leaves two conclusions, I am either insane (very possible), or the tipsters I am following are terrible (also very likely). We can continue to say how this season is a rare one and never has it been so hard to predict, but I assumed there was something in the modelling that could deal with these sort of situations. I know the Sportpunter Tennis model always struggles when a new player goes on a great run, but after a month it starts to understand that players new abilities better. This doesn’t seem to be the case with these soccer models.

Speaking of the Tennis model, it is terrible this season, and off course I upped my bank. $3,200 lost this week and I guess I am a little glad it is getting even harder to achieve posted odds, as it means I am betting a bit less. Two new Sportpunter models started this week. The AFL NAB cup, which I am betting at half stakes and have made $1,300 and the Super 15 model which picked a $6 winner with its first bet and is up $2,100 after just two games. The american sports are taking a break for the Olympics and All star weekend, but NBA still lost $2,100 at the start of the week. NBL only added $1,100 profit for the week with some big bets losing by half a point.

ClubGOWI had an amazing week and to be honest, I didn’t even realise as I was so frustrated with the other Soccer losses. A $5,000 profit and winner after winner each night of the week. The golf was poor again and another $750 lost this week.

Onto the thing that will be the death of me. SOCCER. After the good run last month, Football Elite has reverted to its usual state and lost $5,100. I saved money on Skeeve as there was a competing bet with TFA and I bet the TFA side (no idea why, they are both terrible at the moment). This resulted in a small $300 loss instead of many thousands. Combo Football Investor made $1400 and is the happy place I go when everything else is trying to destroy me. TFA lost a whopping $7,300 and is now at almost 50% of the bank lost again. I have saved myself a fortune by lowering bets, don’t even want to know how bad I would be if I hadn’t. Total Soccer losses now stand at over $50,000 for the season and we are running out of time to make any of that back. I will be replying to Graeme’s post when I get some free time in the coming weeks.

My last post about how tipsters should record odds has had a lot of feedback and I feel that the customer should come first in this business. But usually the customer is pretty ignorant. I think it is the responsibility of the good tipsters and subscribers making a profit to educate potential customers. A lot of services have said if they showed the “real” number then they wouldn’t get any customers. To that I say if your not offering value to your customers then you shouldn’t be making any money. I can see how tough it was in an unregulated market with so many dodgy tipsters giving the few good ones a bad name, and that’s why we should always try to educate anyone who is thinking of paying for tips.

I am also going to become a member of the Secret Betting Club this week as I have been talking to them and was given a copy of their recent newsletter and the info in there was fantastic.

More midweek bets tonight and more then likely another heavy loss. No idea why I continue to bet, I must be insane.

Total loss for the week was $7,868.37

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,494,712.00
Profit/Loss: $31,108.15
POT: 1.25%
Bets Placed: 4,252
Won: 1536
Lost: 2480
Half Payout: 19
Refunded: 217
Winning %: 38.2%
Total profit per day: $218,630.24 / 1329 = $164.50
Total Turnover: $12,244,541.53
Total ROI: 1.79%

ATP – SP $298,496.00 $(2,116.37) -0.7%
week profit/loss: -3176.77

AFL H2H – SP $25,610.00 $4,912.05 19.2%
week profit/loss: 776.85

AFL Line – SP $188,695.00 $40,378.67 21.4%
week profit/loss: 546

Rugby SP $1,061.00 $2,103.15 198.2%
week profit/loss: 2103.15

FB Elite $162,000.00 $(8,321.00) -5.1%
week profit/loss: -5140

Skeeve $78,790.00 $(10,776.10) -13.7%
week profit/loss: -318

Combo FI $91,215.00 $12,077.88 13.2%
week profit/loss: 1366.50

TFA $471,876.00 $(46,614.58) -9.87%
week profit/loss: -7328.50

ClubGowi $140,241.00 $10,378.90 7.4%
week profit/loss: 5021.50

NP Win $18,398.00 $(4,355.00) -23.7%
week profit/loss: -750

NHL Totals $247,425.00 $(5,774.39) -2.3%
week profit/loss:

NBL Totals $91,372.00 $26,342.35 28.8%
week profit/loss: 1067

NBL Line $75,429.00 $24,773.17 32.8%
week profit/loss: 48

NBA Totals $117,892.00 $1,651.10 1.4%
week profit/loss: -541.65

NBA H2H $78,094.00 $6,979.65 8.9%
week profit/loss: -1542.25

17. February 2014 by admin
Categories: update | 6 comments

How should Tipsters record their odds?

After almost 4 years of paying for and following a large number of tipsters my number one gripe is still how they go about recording their odds. My opinion is that they should give a fair reflection of what the member can expect to get if they signed up. It should not cost a potential new subscriber anything before they know if the results are actually a true reflection. I have signed up to a few services and stopped following very quickly as it was plain to see that the odds quoted were a joke. I now half whatever the so called official results are and then determine if I will follow based on this number.

I can understand the tipsters thinking, they need to show a large return or no one would sign up, and in an unregulated market where other tipsters make up completely fictitious numbers, it is hard to stand out. Quality takes a lot of time to show and it’s an easy fix to just show results to best odds even if people can’t actually get on. I can also understand why a lot of tipsters will never change they way they record odds, because if they gave a true reflection of their service then no one would join as they would see the tipster actually makes a loss.

The best approach I have seen so far is that taken by Skeeve. His tips are in a very niche market and has a large number of followers and thus prices crash within seconds of release. Skeeve takes best odds 15 minutes after release available only from bookmakers where all members can get a decent bet on. This policy has seen me achieve odds 1.6% better then those recorded and anybody looking at his service can be guaranteed the same or better results. How amazing is that for new customers to be pleasantly surprised that they can actually make more then is stated on the tipsters website. I’m sure it took a lot of complaints before this policy was enacted, but a big WELL DONE goes out to Skeeve for this.

I have recorded my odds and the odds quoted by tipsters and have an average of 2.1% worse odds. It would surprise me if a normal member was able to better my results as I take this endeavor very seriously and place my bets as soon as I can (or wait if I know I can get better odds later). If I was able to achieve quoted odds, my profit would jump from $220,000 to $500,000. A massive difference.

Another issue are proofing sites. Again, when these bets are recorded, the odds stated are available, but it may be at a bookie that won’t take a decent bet and as soon as 1 person bets on it the price will drop dramatically. Sportpunter uses Pinnacle odds at time of release. This has resulted in a bot race and now one person who had the foresight to program a bot is able to beat all the users who manually bet. The price drops 5% almost immediate and a model that shows a long term ROI of 5% becomes useless for all but the person with the fastest bot.

Most of the tipster I follow have also been profiled by The Secret betting club, with most also winning some sort of medal. THE SBC should be congratulated for the work it does in trying to find profitable tipsters. But it again has issues, as they do proof a service, but I do not believe they actually place large bets on the service nor report exactly how much worse the odds are that they receive if they do so. I may be mistaken as I am not a member, but if this is the case then again, they are not helping their members fully.

EDIT: apologies to SBC for my ignorance. I was sent their latest newsletter and they do indeed go into great detail on achievable odds and do test properly. They have also converted me into a member with the amount of depth and work that is in these newsletters.

So after that rambling preamble, the question remains.

What can we do? how do we come up with a number that is fair for both the tipster and the member?

The best option is the Skeeve way, but tipsters have said they do not have time to do this, which is bullshit. They are paid very well and taking an extra 10 minutes is nothing, this task could also be automated. But I know this will never be the way they record odds. It would result in a massive difference compared to their current method.

So i propose a new way that I have dubbed Average Member Odds (AMO). It will be a new standard that takes no work from the tipster. It will take 3 members who are willing to spend an extra 5 minute per week to put in the odds they got and then take the average number of all 3. The 3 members will be a cross section of the betting world. We would have a regular punter who bets under $100 per unit, a professional who bets over $200 per unit and a member who can not bet at time of release and gets on whenever they can.

This number would be the closest reflection of what everyone can expect to get. I feel that any tipster who uses this system will show potential customers how confident and transparent they are in their system. Over time it will result in more subscribers and make a real difference in an industry with no regulation. All potential subscribers should want something along these lines instituted in any tipster they follow, as it will quickly sort the small profitable percentage from the large amount of con artists looking to deceive and make a quick buck.

This may not be the best option, but I wanted to start a conversation about this. What do you think? is it as big an issue as I think it is? How do you think they should be recorded? Add a comment below to keep the discussion going.

Below are how much better or worse my odds were for the Soccer models I follow for the month of January 2014.
Football Elite: 2.5% better (this is recorded against odds in the first email)
Skeeve: -3.4% worse (very small sample size, usually get better odds)
Football Investor: 0.9% better
TFA: -0.5% worse
ClubGOWI: -4.9% worse

16. February 2014 by admin
Categories: betting | 11 comments

January 2014 Review +$20,595.02

Another month hitting it’s target. January saw a turnover of $443,059.00 with a $20,595.02 profit which is a ROI of 4.65%.

We had two losing Sports which were Tennis and Soccer. Tennis would have been much worse, but ClubGOWI won a big bet with Li Na capturing the Aussie open crown. He also did great with the rest of the Women’s tournament.

ClubGOWI really needs his own section, as it isn’t just Soccer that he advises. I have actually made a loss with his Soccer bets, but his Tennis and NFL have made a healthy profit. We have had a few heated arguments over email as he feels I cast a bad light over his service. Even though I can be quite harsh in my criticism of tipsters, I feel my assessment is honest given the facts at hand. I’m sure you are all sick of me banging on about attainable odds and how tipsters record these. For every tipster I follow they do this differently, some just take best price, some take best Pinnacle price at release, some take best price 15 minutes after release, others take an average. There are a million ways to skin this cat and just as many validations for it. At the end of the day I feel the recorded odds should be those that the majority of members can get.

Keith posted his January results on his blog and there were 153 bets, which produced 32.9 units profit at a ROI of 21.58%. This should have equated to a $13,160 profit for me. My profits were 30% less at $9,345 at a ROI of 15.1%. I am at my computer 95% of the time at release and over January my odds were 4.9% worse then advised. I believe being in Australia that I may be getting the emails a few seconds after everyone else and as we know by the current uproar of Sporting Data, this makes a huge difference. It’s just something I will need to accept and the 5% worse odds correlates to a 5% worse ROI. Taking this into consideration and looking at his historical return of 13%, I can hope for a best of 8% return. I would take that any day of the week.

The service is professionally run and the write ups are amazing. If you have the time, you can actually find more of your own bets from the information given. My whole philosophy is the least amount of work for the greatest gain, so I just bet the red selections and that’s it. Still early days for this service, but it has potential.

The Sportpunter ATP model had a amazing first day at the Aussie open with over $7,000 profit, followed by loss after loss after loss for the rest of the month. A $6,600 loss for the month. Football Elite started a mini comeback with $4,000 profit but Skeeve added a $7,000 loss to start the year. Combo Football Investor is my most consistent service, making $6,100 for the month. TFA started the year with an absolute shocker, losing $16,500 and even more of my faith in the model.

The winners were as per usual Basketball, and a few suprises with Golf, NFL and NHL adding some much needed profit.

The NBL model alone added $18,600 profit and NBA historically produces a loss from the new year, but managed to scrape a small $650 profit. Nics Picks finally got a win, a very nice $6,500 profit and a few second places which could have really made it an amazing month. NHL arrested the terrible slide it was on with $5,700 profit.

NBL has really saved my arse this season. Soccer has been an absolute nightmare and a break-even season would be a massive win for me from here. After an $85,000 loss in September and October, we have regained $79,000 in the past 3 months. As I said in the December review, this is the time of year where my graph shoots up rapidly, so far so good and I hope for an equally strong February.

Combined Totals
Tennis $97,001.00 $(1,569.53) -1.6%
Soccer $185,708.00 $(8,536.00) -4.6%
Basketball $88,445.00 $19,859.08 22.5%
Golf $4,900.00 $4,961.00 101.2%
NFL $7,705.00 $730.10 9.5%
NHL $58,700.00 $5,750.37 9.8%

Individual Models
ATP – SP $91,701.00 $(6,629.53) -7.2%
FB Elite $36,000.00 $4,075.00 11.3%
Skeeve $19,200.00 $(6,960.00) -36.3%
Combo FI $17,625.00 $6,101.38 34.6%
6-22 $2,750.00 $(1,312.50) -47.7%
7-21 $4,750.00 $(910.00) -19.2%
7-22 $2,250.00 $(1,062.50) -47.2%
8-21 $3,000.00 $(1,830.00) -61.0%
8-22 $1,750.00 $(1,500.00) -85.7%
31-42 $13,750.00 $(1,832.50) -13.3%
33-41 $2,500.00 $(1,385.00) -55.4%
33-42 $2,000.00 $(885.00) -44.3%
TOX $8,000.00 $(1,644.50) -20.6%
STOY $7,750.00 $(1,644.50) -21.2%
STOZ $11,250.00 $(4,567.00) -40.6%
D3-D6 $2,833.00 $1,033.42 36.5%
D3-D7 $1,500.00 $1,037.50 69.2%
NP Win $2,700.00 $6,525.00 241.7%
NBL Totals $21,879.00 $17,601.80 80.5%
NBL Line $19,286.00 $1,010.95 5.2%
NBA Totals $26,310.00 $(96.96) -0.4%
NBA H2H $21,570.00 $743.29 3.4%
NFL Totals $2,105.00 $(368.70) -17.5%
NHL Totals $58,700.00 $5,750.37 9.8%
ClubGowi $61,900.00 $9,345.00 15.1%

13. February 2014 by admin
Categories: Monthly | Leave a comment

Feb 5th – Feb 11th -$529.62

The great run had to end sometime and I’m glad it’s a tiny loss. This should just be a small blip on the way to $100,000 for the season. We had the usual winners and losers this week. It also seems I caused quite an uproar with a few comments I made last week. Graeme over at TFA replied to some things I said and it’s a great read. I will reply to it once I get some free time.

I’ll gloss over this weeks results and try and not say too much this week.

ATP continues to struggle but made a tiny profit. FB Elite ended it’s good run with a $2,600 loss and Skeeve continues his horrendous tipping with a $2,400 loss, this week he blamed the wind and terrible pitches????? really, I would assume if you were studying all these teams in great detail, such a simple thing like the weather and pitch conditions would be part of your thought process? I don’t think I have ever read a comment from Skeeve that is a simple “I’m currently shit at the moment, not sure what it is”. Combo FI just keeps pumping out the wins and it’s surprising as I always assumed his picks were very close to TFA’s which had a tiny loss this week. ClubGOWI also had a small loss, but so close to a nice win with Hunter Mahan in the Golf crumbling to finish outside the Top 5.

Nic’s picks lost $275 this week, the loss was lessened as after talking with Bryan I have put trades in place to break even if any players odds come down far enough. The previously mentioned Mahan went into the lead in the final round and his price dropped below 2.25 and my lay was taken. We had chances in the other tournament too but they did not pan out.

NHL lost $2,100, NBL made $2,700 and NBA added $2,100. Pleasantly surprised with $61,000 profit between both Basketball models.

A very quite week but we have a heap of bets on the midweek soccer games. Hoping for a good start to the week.

Total loss for the week was $529.62

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,398,677.00
Profit/Loss: $38,976.52
POT: 1.62%
Bets Placed: 4,069
Won: 1485
Lost: 2375
Half Payout: 17
Refunded: 192
Winning %: 38.5%
Total profit per day: $226,498.61 / 1322 = $171.33
Total Turnover: $12,148,506.53
Total ROI: 1.86%

ATP – SP $277,828.00 $1,060.40 0.4%
week profit/loss: 502.32

FB Elite $152,000.00 $(3,181.00) -2.1%
week profit/loss: -2581

Skeeve $73,840.00 $(10,458.10) -14.2%
week profit/loss: -2400

Combo FI $85,215.00 $10,711.38 12.6%
week profit/loss: 2335

TFA $454,126.00 $(39,286.08) -8.65%
week profit/loss: -125

ClubGowi $128,140.00 $5,357.40 4.2%
week profit/loss: -770.10

NP Win $17,648.00 $(3,605.00) -20.4%
week profit/loss: -275

NHL Totals $247,425.00 $(5,774.39) -2.3%
week profit/loss: -2065.63

NBL Totals $87,917.00 $25,275.35 28.7%
week profit/loss: 2592.50

NBL Line $70,509.00 $24,725.17 35.1%
week profit/loss: 89.67

NBA Totals $115,099.00 $2,192.75 1.9%
week profit/loss: 1055.38

NBA H2H $75,229.00 $8,522.10 11.3%
week profit/loss: 1052.24

10. February 2014 by admin
Categories: update | Leave a comment

December 2013 Review +$18,003.90

December was what I call an average month. $18,000 – $22,000 per month is what I am expecting from this venture. There has been no year where it has averaged anything close to that, but those are my expectations. To repeat my goal, it’s a $4 – $5 million turnover per year and a 5% ROI. That’s about $400,000 turnover each month and a $21k profit. I aim for this goal knowing it probably isn’t achievable and am usually happy to hit half the target which is just over $100,000 per season.

This month I turned over $383,623.00 for a profit of $18,003.90 which is a ROI of 4.69%. Pretty much right on target.

The Tennis season started at the end of December and did not get off to a great start. Golf also continued its piss poor results for 2013 and NHL lost a further $5,000 after losing $7,000 in November. These losses all up were just over $8,000.

The winners were Soccer with $9,400, Basketball with $13,000 and NFL with $3,400. This is pretty much a carbon copy of November.

Breaking Soccer down further we see that Skeeve and Combo Football Investor both made $5,100. These were great back to back months for Skeeve and brought the losses for the year to something more manageable. Football Elite had a horrendous month losing almost $14,000. I tested the Insider Betting tipster and after losing $2,000 I quickly realised there was no point in following it long term. I also started following ClubGOWI and lost a further $2,000. The Football Analyst also had back to back great months with $17,500 profit. As Soccer is usually 50% of my monthly turnover, I would hope for $10,000 profit each month.

NBL continued it’s amazing season with $6,900 profit and NBA did just as well with $6,700 profit.

Half the profit we saw in November, but still a great return. This is historically the period where I make all the profits for the year, so I would hope for the next few months we see a similar results.

Combined Totals
Tennis $13,597.00 $(1,453.03) -10.7%
Soccer $182,808.00 $9,418.97 5.2%
Basketball $67,365.00 $13,153.78 19.5%
Golf $1,650.00 $(1,650.00) -100.0%
NFL $37,238.00 $3,445.75 9.3%
NHL $80,965.00 $(4,911.57) -6.1%

Individual Models
ATP – SP $13,597.00 $(1,453.03) -10.7%
FB Elite $33,000.00 $(13,880.00) -42.1%
Skeeve $6,000.00 $5,142.00 85.7%
Combo FI $21,500.00 $5,140.00 23.9%
6-22 $4,750.00 $4,032.50 84.9%
7-21 $4,500.00 $1,376.50 30.6%
7-22 $2,500.00 $(302.00) -12.1%
8-21 $2,750.00 $403.50 14.7%
8-22 $2,000.00 $(576.50) -28.8%
31-42 $14,500.00 $4,454.50 30.7%
33-41 $2,000.00 $1,995.00 99.8%
33-42 $1,500.00 $500.00 33.3%
TOX $13,000.00 $1,585.00 12.2%
STOY $12,750.00 $2,771.00 21.7%
STOZ $16,350.00 $3,330.00 20.4%
D3-D6 $2,250.00 $(1,402.50) -62.3%
D3-D7 $1,500.00 $(652.50) -43.5%
NP Win $1,650.00 $(1,650.00) -100.0%
NBL Totals $21,490.00 $(1,876.30) -8.7%
NBL Line $11,669.00 $8,785.58 75.3%
NBA Totals $18,836.00 $5,719.90 30.4%
NBA H2H $15,928.00 $1,045.77 6.6%
NFL Totals $33,398.00 $2,439.55 7.3%
NHL Totals $80,965.00 $(4,911.57) -6.1%
Insider Betting $2,000.00 $(2,000.00) -100.0%
ClubGowi $43,240.00 $(2,012.50) -4.7%

09. February 2014 by admin
Categories: Monthly | Leave a comment

Jan 29th – Feb 4th +$11,953.72

More profit added this week and I’m back to where I was just over 6 months ago. In those 6 months I have lost and regained $95,000. These are crazy swings, but the way it is in this game. If your thinking of starting along this same path, the number one lesson I can give is to be sure you can cope with these swings. They are repeated over and over again and there are ways to minimise them, but in doing so you will also minimise your profit. Once again this week threw up some very frustrating moments, another second in the golf, some near wins in the Soccer and a massive loss on a favorite for TFA. Add to that the usual buzzer beaters, 93rd minute goals, and general unluckiness that usually occurs on anything I bet on. Even with my lack of luck, we continue to march towards a healthy profit and with 5 months left in year 4, we could still reach that $100k profit.

We had Bubba Watson leading by 2 with 1 round to go and Ryan Moore in 3rd place. Either player winning would have produced $3-6k profit. Bubba had it all day and then missed a putt from a meter out to hand the victory to Stadler. That’s two seconds in 2 weeks. Very very frustrating. A $775 loss for the week.

TFA is now really starting to frustrate me, Even though the higher level systems are about break-even, I believe most of the subscribers would be using the combined systems as they are the ones that have historically produced the best results. I believe having so many systems is a bit of a cop-out at times and saw it with Formbet as well. With so many systems, one is always going to be winning and Formbet goes to great lengths to let people know of any one system that is ahead, but overall the system has a massive loss. TFA isn’t so blatant in regards to this but does let people know that it isn’t up to him if they win or lose. This is the beauty of these sort of systems for the tipster, they are always going to have a stream of players winning and letting others know how great they are, and the losers just leave. I have a lot of respect for tipsters like Skeeve and FB Elite who back themselves completely. There is no hiding behind anything in what they do. I guess my real frustration lies in how bad I want The Football Analyst to succeed. It has high turnover at long odds and the potential to add a massive amount of profit per year, but the fact that I am down after almost 2 full seasons is not a good sign. I really do not want to drop the service, but at -$40,000 so far, it is not looking good.

ATP had another losing week with a $600 loss, the NFL season ended and I will do a review of the Sportpunter model this week. NHL did well with $3,300 profit and NBA lost $240. NBL continues to do what it does with $5,900 profit and now over $47,000 profit for the season at well over 30% ROI.

ClubGOWI was terrible this week losing $3,500 but this should be much more as I decided to bet the NFL bets he put up but were not official bets. The way he read this game was as if he had already seen it and came back in time to let us know what the result would be, this produced $2,000 profit. I have now had 234 bets and bet a total of $115,000 with ClubGOWI and there are still a few concerns. Soccer is by far the largest sport bet and after $97,000 worth of bets I am down $1,000. Golf is also down $2,000 but that is to be expected with the sort of odds you get with Golf. NFL and Tennis are doing amazing with $5,000 and $4,000 profit respectively. As Soccer accounts for 85% of the turnover, I’m hoping for a bit of an improvement there. I have also noted that Soccer is also the one sport that I get significantly poorer odds and the other sports I can usually equal the stated odds, this would also cause a significant difference in my results. Still early days and I will do a more thorough review once I have turned over half a million.

One final rant and it’s once again for Skeeve, who has now made the decision not to bet on League 2 games. It seems eventually all he will have left to bet on is conference south games, played in the second half of the season only on Saturdays and only if the wind is blowing north at a rate of 4 knots and two players are wearing red socks. It’s fine to have a niche, but this is getting a bit ridiculous. I think it is to his detriment, as there will be fewer bets and this of course leads to much higher varience. I’ve said it for the last few months, he has repeatedly said, “don’t worry, this period is the best one and we will all make profit”. But what happens when varience kicks in and we dont? The season is still salvageable, but I’m not so sure about the long term success. A $1,700 loss for the week.

Again my wisdom is on show through this blog, over the last few weeks I have said that Football Elite seemed to be on the cusp of some profitable weeks and last week there was a very nice win, but that was nothing compared to this week. A $9,000 profit and so close to 2 more big priced winners. It brings the service back to just a $600 loss and if things can stay the way they have for the past few weeks, we can slowly make our way to some profits and hopefully get back the $20,000 I lost last season.

Combo Football Investor is the last of the Soccer models and once again, week after week, a nice profit is made. This week resulted in a very healthy $3,100. The only Soccer model in profit.

Once again a nice healthy profit, anything over $5,000 a week is great. Hoping that the current $42,000 soccer loss is wiped out in the last few months of the season and for February to be very profitable as we move into a new AFL season. AFL has been the one constant for me and I hope it continues this way for many years to come. Looking forward to another exciting week of betting.

Total profit for the week was $11,953.72

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,307,071.00
Profit/Loss: $39,506.14
POT: 1.71%
Bets Placed: 3,900
Won: 1420
Lost: 2291
Half Payout: 15
Refunded: 174
Winning %: 38.3%
Total profit per day: $227,028.23 / 1315 = $172.64
Total Turnover: $12,056,900.53
Total ROI: 1.88%

ATP – SP $254,793.00 $558.08 0.2%
week profit/loss: -594.27

FB Elite $145,000.00 $(660.00) -0.5%
week profit/loss: 8950

Skeeve $71,440.00 $(8,058.10) -11.3%
week profit/loss: -1686

Combo FI $80,715.00 $8,376.38 10.4%
week profit/loss: 3145

TFA $439,126.00 $(39,161.08) -8.91%
week profit/loss: -2512.50

ClubGowi $114,540.00 $6,127.50 5.3%
week profit/loss: -3501

NFL Totals $104,169.00 $(707.94) -0.7%
week profit/loss: 0

NP Win $17,148.00 $(3,330.00) -19.4%
week profit/loss: -775

NHL Totals $234,847.00 $(3,708.76) -1.6%
week profit/loss: 3336.07

NBL Totals $83,622.00 $22,682.85 27.1%
week profit/loss: -90.20

NBL Line $69,136.00 $24,635.50 35.6%
week profit/loss: 5920.50

NBA Totals $111,542.00 $1,137.37 1.0%
week profit/loss: 484.39

NBA H2H $71,461.00 $7,469.86 10.5%
week profit/loss: -723.27

03. February 2014 by admin
Categories: update | Leave a comment

Jan 22nd – Jan 28th +$8,327.85

So another profitable week to finish off January. We had a second in the golf (missed $9,000) and an amazing OT loss in the basketball which cost a further $3,000. I had $380 on Sacremento at $7.50 and they were up by 4 with 15 seconds left. The other team goes for a three and hit it, but are also fouled in the process. You can imagine how overtime went. I rarely watch any games these days but had flicked over thinking the game had finished. I’m positive these sort of things happen every day, so just another bit of luck that didn’t go my way. A strong end to January and it’s good to be in profit for 2014.

I’m glad the Aussie open is over, We ended with a small win on Stan, but apart from day 1, every day lost a fair chunk of money. This week ended with a $300 loss. ClubGowi did very well with his WTA picks and $3,000 was won on Li Na winning at $11. Hoping the smaller tournaments start returning some of the losses.

We had a big chance to go back to back big priced winners in the Golf this week but it wasn’t to be. A $700 loss there. The NHL lost $2,800. NBA made $1,100 and the NBL added $7,700 more profit. If the NBL continue this run, I will make more then the average player makes in a season.

I think ClubGowi needs to be separated from Soccer, as it has been making most of it’s profits elsewhere. A fantastic week in the Tennis which resulted in a further $3,700 profit.

Football Elite started the week with a great run and then as usual had a poor Sunday, but a great week nonetheless and $4,900 profit. Skeeve lost $1,200, but this should have been a larger loss, but as a game was postponed, i decided not to bet the single bet, saving myself another $1,200. But i did bet the other double earlier and my bookie says the other game has been rescheduled and won’t pay out the single win, will add that result next week. Combo FI made a whopping $47 and The Football Analyst lost $4,100, and starting to get really worried again about this service. We have a heap of midweek bets for it and if the losses continue then it won’t be long before we are in very uncomfortable waters again.

Another solid week and 2014 is looking good. If history is anything to go on, we can expect a strong climb in the next few months, and then pretty much no movement for the 8 months after that. I may have to consider doing a Skeeve and only placing bets during certain times of the year. This week is looking like a busy period and could result in some big gains.

Total profit for the week was $8,327.85

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,203,317.00
Profit/Loss: $27,552.42
POT: 1.25%
Bets Placed: 3,704
Won: 1358
Lost: 2193
Half Payout: 15
Refunded: 138
Winning %: 38.2%
Total profit per day: $215,074.51 / 1308 = $164.43
Total Turnover: $11,953,146.53
Total ROI: 1.8%

ATP – SP $244,013.00 $1,152.35 0.5%
week profit/loss: -325.76

FB Elite $133,000.00 $(9,610.00) -7.2%
week profit/loss: 4900

Skeeve $65,440.00 $(6,372.10) -9.7%
week profit/loss: -1200

Combo FI $74,715.00 $5,231.38 7.0%
week profit/loss: 47

TFA $415,626.00 $(36,648.58) -7.94%
week profit/loss: -4110

ClubGowi $99,740.00 $9,628.50 9.7%
week profit/loss: 3755

NFL Totals $104,169.00 $(707.94) -0.7%
week profit/loss: 0

NP Win $16,373.00 $(2,555.00) -15.6%
week profit/loss: -700

NHL Totals $226,453.00 $(7,044.83) -3.1%
week profit/loss: -2873.09

NBL Totals $80,652.00 $22,773.05 28.2%
week profit/loss: 7220.10

NBL Line $62,281.00 $18,715.00 30.0%
week profit/loss: 532.25

NBA Totals $105,802.00 $652.98 0.6%
week profit/loss: 153.98

NBA H2H $65,521.00 $8,193.13 12.5%
week profit/loss: 928.37

27. January 2014 by admin
Categories: update | Leave a comment

Jan 15th – Jan 21st +$21,040.52

Always love weeks like this. It’s why I’ve stuck around for the past 4 years while 99% of other people who start these types of blogs are gone after a few months. I practice the ancient art of patience and am rewarded for it on weeks like this. Last week I said this would be a +20k week and I guess what you ask for is given (Supermodel in my bed next week). We had two tipsters who had never made a profit for me get some big wins. One I had followed for 6 months and only ever had 1 win and another a new tipster I was following and had been giving shit about his prices (which i still stand by). Add in the ever profitable NBL model and some other sprinkling of wins and we finally get back into a decent profit for the year.

I have decided to start using Twitter now and have never publicised my handle, but if you want to follow me you can do so here.

Let’s shake things up and instead of going by sport we will go by which ones profited and which ones lost this week.

Start with the negatives and the Sportpunter ATP model sucked balls this week. An $8,000 loss and not the start to the season I was hoping for. I didn’t think it was going this badly until I checked the results, but the big winning first day was on last weeks results and since then it has given it all back and then some. A real shame, as these big majors are where I usually make a fair bit of my money. Still early days for a model that has performed amazingly over the past 11 years. TFA had a mini resurrection before dying in the arse again. A $4,500 loss and hopes of any profit this season are gone, hoping to claw my way back to a small loss over the coming months and rethink my position for the next season. FB Elite lost $1,000 but I can see this model ready to burst out of its funk in the coming weeks, lots of draws and near misses and only 1 or two weeks of a bit of luck and Elite will be back.

Now onto the profits. Skeeve had a great week and missed another big win by 5 minutes. I always bet late and one game which was on two multis was postponed and I did not want to bet straight up on the other selections so left them, they both won easily. If the game had gone ahead, instead of a $3,300 win, it could have been in the 6-7k area. Combo FI seems to be my go to guy, it will never set the world on fire but provides me with consistency in an otherwise crazy world. A further $1,600 profit and sitting at 7.1% ROI.

I started following ClubGOWI after he had an amazing run and a few readers pointing me in his direction, as with any tipster after a good run, variance kicked in and a number of losses came to even out the good run. That’s when I got involved. As i’ve said many times, the write ups are in depth and Keith has a strong understanding of not just soccer, but also Tennis and NFL. I also wanted to move away from following model based systems and have one or two tipsters who used their knowledge more then a computer and pure stats. I have had issues with prices and know others have to, but again, this is something we all sadly have to accept from any successful tipsters. This week really showed what this service can achieve when it hits its straps. A $7,500 win with some great tipping in the Soccer and Tennis. I’m glad this service was brought to my attention, as it has a lot of potential.

The other service that was not performing well was Nics value picks, again I started after an amazing run. Until this week I had 1 winner and a few second places. Again, getting odds was a hassle, so much so that I decided to accept much higher variance and not bet the places as they would not have been profitable. I can get within 5% of quoted odds on wins which is just acceptable. My patience over the last few months had been wearing thin and after hitting a $10,000 loss I wasn’t sure how much longer to follow (I like to give everyone a full season though). Well, thankfully my patience was duly rewarded with a win at odds of $123 (9.6% worse odds then the recorded ones of $136). A $8,500 profit for the week and while not yet putting me into profit, it has given a hell of a lot of breathing space and with some luck over the next few months, following this tipster might just pay off.

golf

Onto the profitable Sportpunter models. As seen above, Tennis was terrible. NHl Totals on the other hand has made a great comeback this week, adding $6,400 profit. NBA added $2,500 and NBL continues to amaze me with $4,500 profit. The NBL is another perfect example of patience, until this season it has broke even or made a small loss, but the potential was there and this season has really outshone. With such a small amount of bets, this is purely variance, but variance in the right direction.

So that’s it for what turned out to be an amazing week. Hoping to finish off January with another big winning week and then take the profit to $50,000 before another AFL season starts. So the prediction for this week is back to back $20,000 profit weeks with TFA having one of those spectacular weeks and Skeeve hitting 100%. NHL will get back into profit for the season and NBL will continue what is the greatest run of form I have ever seen. Until next week.

Total profit for the week was $21,040.52

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,130,657.00
Profit/Loss: $19,224.57
POT: 0.90%
Bets Placed: 3,580
Won: 1316
Lost: 2120
Half Payout: 10
Refunded: 134
Winning %: 38.3%
Total profit per day: $206,746.66 / 1301 = $158.91
Total Turnover: $11,880,486.53
Total ROI: 1.74%

ATP – SP $239,971.00 $1,478.11 0.6%
week profit/loss: -7,819.03

FB Elite $122,000.00 $(14,510.00) -11.9%
week profit/loss: -1050

Skeeve $63,040.00 $(5,172.10) -8.2%
week profit/loss: 3360

Combo FI $72,715.00 $5,184.38 7.1%
week profit/loss: 1566.88

TFA $409,626.00 $(32,538.58) -7.94%
week profit/loss: -4507.58

ClubGowi $85,040.00 $5,873.50 6.9%
week profit/loss: 7569

NFL Totals $104,169.00 $(707.94) -0.7%
week profit/loss: 0

NP Win $15,673.00 $(1,855.00) -11.8%
week profit/loss: 8525

NHL Totals $215,881.00 $(4,171.74) -1.9%
week profit/loss: 6449.29

NBL Totals $72,667.00 $15,552.95 21.4%
week profit/loss: 4295.50

NBL Line $59,506.00 $18,182.75 30.6%
week profit/loss: 186.70

NBA Totals $101,639.00 $499.00 0.5%
week profit/loss: 2805

NBA H2H $59,198.00 $7,264.76 12.3%
week profit/loss: -340.24

20. January 2014 by admin
Categories: update | 2 comments

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