Sep 26th – Oct 2nd -$5,696.27
This week saw the end of the AFL season and a game I had a very tough time watching. I was barracking for my Local team, but had $5,500 on the other team. My team won but it really didn’t feel all that great. It was an absolutely brilliant game with both sides having chances to win it. That ends the season for the Sportpunter AFL model and looking back it was a pretty decent season. H2H betting ended the year $10,559.98 up and Line betting ended $38,917.57 up. A total profit of $49,477.55. The last 3 months of the season I had increased my bank by 50% which resulted in a $6,000 loss. Starting banks for each were $50,000, so a 50% ROC over the two models. Apparently next season the model will be player based, I’m not sure Jonno should be changing a winning model, but he usually knows what he is doing (apart from on the golf course) and hopefully this will add further profits next year.
This week, Football Investor also came out with a new system, it is called the Combo system and only has bets that are in both FI and Strikezone models. This will bring down the amount of bets I will be placing, but much like FB analyst, will deliver better picks and higher profits. I have scrapped the other two models and will now be placing $500 flat bets on all Combo selections. Going of past results, which sadly is the only option, it looks like this model should achieve a profit of 116 points per season. Factoring in poorer odds and I’ll be hoping to make 75% of that which is 87 x $500 = $43,500. We will see how close we get at the end of the season.
So now a quick look at what happened this week. As mentioned above AFL lost $5,500. Tennis lost another $4,400 and it’s looking like the best I can hope for is a break even year. Horse racing continues its horror run and added a loss of $3,200. These were the 3 models I was so happy with at the start of the year and apart from AFL, they have not gone well lately. All 3 totalled a loss of $13,100 this week.
I made some of that back with the sport that really underperformed last year but has started amazingly well this season. The XX Draws and unders lost $3,450, but the extended picks made $4,500 profit. FB Elite lost $4,000 and Skeeve lost $1,000. The new Combo system got off to a good start with $1,500 profit. Finally, all 5 FB Analyst systems made very healthy profits for a total return of close to $10,000.
Another week over and after 3 months of my 3rd year I’m still to make any profit. July made $6,066, August was terrible with a loss of $18,762 and September turned things around with $7,016 profit. Let’s hope that October is the kickstart that gets me on my way to $200,000 profit.
The new bank amounts are below. (If a bank isn’t mentioned below then I am using a constant bank for it)
AFL H2H: $80932
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $75000
WTA: $75000
Total loss for the week was $5,696.27
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $746,616.00
Profit/Loss: $(3,454.72)
POT: -0.46%
Bets Placed: 1,076
Won: 452
Lost: 601
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 21
Winning %: 42.9%
Profit per day: $112,629.00 / 825 = $136.52
AFL H2H – SP $26,047.00 $5,932.35 22.8%
week profit/loss: -1500
AFL Line – SP $149,871.00 $(11,958.98) -8.0%
week profit/loss: -3970
ATP – SP $138,664.00 $(3,846.43) -2.8%
week profit/loss: 792.99
WTA -SP $156,164.00 $(5,456.36) -3.5%
week profit/loss: -5187.81
New Horses $110,769.00 $(3,987.00) -3.6%
week profit/loss: -3225
XX Draws $12,000.00 $(2,545.00) -21.2%
week profit/loss: -3000
XX Draws Under $12,000.00 $(3,385.00) -28.2%
week profit/loss: -450.50
XX Extended $28,000.00 $2,686.50 9.6%
week profit/loss: 2445
XX Extended Under $28,000.00 $4,921.50 17.6%
week profit/loss: 2082
FB Elite $12,050.00 $159.20 1.3%
week profit/loss: -4000
Skeeve $37,416.00 $(2,606.20) -7.0%
week profit/loss: -997.20
6-22 $7,125.00 $3,183.75 44.7%
week profit/loss: 3806.25
7-21 $9,000.00 $5,472.75 60.8%
week profit/loss: 2407.50
7-22 $3,810.00 $3,318.75 87.1%
week profit/loss: 1751.25
8-21 $4,500.00 $2,456.25 54.6%
week profit/loss: 1263.75
8-22 $3,000.00 $1,417.50 47.3%
week profit/loss: 615
Combo FI $4,000.00 $1,470.50 36.8%
week profit/loss: 1470.50
Sep 19th – Sep 25th +$1,615.47
It seems all I needed to do to get some extra visitors was to get mentioned on a popular site. Cassini at Green All Over replied to my blog post about his service and had some nice things to say about me.
Blimey! The pressure is on. Why I haven’t had a go at Daily25 is because I admire the sensible approach the author demonstrates. In fact, some of his thoughts there could have been written by me. Unfortunately the Under 2.5 Classic plus Extended are down 0.43 points so far this season, with the draws up just 1.15 points, with the most profitable markets I am following currently being the HT0-0. I expect these differences to close as the season continues, but meanwhile, the portfolio approach seems to work well for Mr Daily. Check his blog out. After two plus years, he has some sound advice – and I suspect his posts will not vanish when a setback is experienced! His mission statement is to “Make $250 per day with sports betting” (Australian dollars) which is about £160 a day. This isn’t a goal as such, but for anyone doing this full-time, that total should be achievable as a long-term daily average.
He talks highly of me, but the man has a very poor read of people, haha. To any visitors coming from Green All Over, sadly this site isn’t going to offer you much as I only post once a week and it’s just my profit or loss for that week. If your interested in following that, then come back each Tuesday or follow the RSS feed. I occasionally might say something worthwhile, but thats very rare.
Now last week I wrote why I really liked the XX Draws and off course this is the week they underperformed. $2,700 lost for the week and that brings them slightly above 1 unit profit for the season. It’s a long long season and with a few hundred more bets to go, I won’t be complaining just yet.
In other Soccer news this week, FB Elite continues his nice form with 1 from 1 for $2,000 profit. FB Investor lost $500. Skeeve the maniac/genius decided to pick nothing but draws this week in every single Blue Sq game and came up with close to $2,500 profit. FB Analyst also continued his great start to the season with another $2,800 profit. I believe all his systems combined are about break even for the season, so my portfolio of his models are showing how smart and intelligent, and therefore also how good looking I am.
Onto other sports and AFL continued its great end of season run, just 1 more week to go. I will miss AFL, it went through a bad patch when I upped my stakes, but it has been a great source of profit for me over the year. A full report will be available next week on the season. Tennis continues to under perform and I’m hoping for that inevitable brilliant week that brings me back into profit for the year.
Horse Racing went crap with over $5,000 lost. Back to negative for the last 3 months and it’s looking unlikely that I’ll renew my subs in November, even though I’m still up about $30,000 for the season which is a ROC of over 100%. I have listed the reasons numerous times and things are just getting worse. It is going to be a tough decision, but I am leaning towards stopping it in November.
That’s pretty much it for the week, a stable $1,600 profit, nothing to shout about, but it isn’t a loss. A very poor first 3 months of the new betting year with a ROI of just 0.34% and a total ROI over the 2 years and 3 months of 1.84%.
The new bank amounts are below. (If a bank isn’t mentioned below then I am using a constant bank for it)
AFL H2H: $82432
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $75000
WTA: $75000
Total profit for the week was $1,615.47
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $662,217.00
Profit/Loss: $2,241.55
POT: 0.34%
Bets Placed: 929
Won: 393
Lost: 517
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 18
Winning %: 43.2%
Profit per day: $118,325.27 / 818 = $144.65
AFL H2H – SP $24,547.00 $7,432.35 30.3%
week profit/loss: 1084
AFL Line – SP $145,901.00 $(7,988.98) -5.5%
week profit/loss: 2880
ATP – SP $127,012.00 $(4,639.42) -3.7%
week profit/loss: -110.06
WTA -SP $146,983.00 $(268.55) -0.2%
week profit/loss: -1089.92
New Horses $102,798.00 $(762.00) -0.7%
week profit/loss: -5160
XX Draws $9,000.00 $455.00 5.1%
week profit/loss: -1000
XX Draws Under $9,000.00 $(2,934.50) -32.6%
week profit/loss: -1000
XX Extended $22,000.00 $241.50 1.1%
week profit/loss: -565
XX Extended Under $22,000.00 $2,839.50 12.9%
week profit/loss: -200
FB Elite $8,050.00 $4,159.20 51.7%
week profit/loss: 2000
Skeeve $29,416.00 $(1,609.00) -5.5%
week profit/loss: 2444
6-22 $3,000.00 $(622.50) -20.8%
week profit/loss: -675
7-21 $5,625.00 $3,065.25 54.5%
week profit/loss: 2292.75
7-22 $810.00 $1,567.50 193.5%
week profit/loss: 825
8-21 $1,500.00 $1,192.50 79.5%
week profit/loss: 390
8-22 $375.00 $802.50 214.0%
week profit/loss: 0
Football Investor $1,400.00 $(368.00) -26.3%
week profit/loss: 12
Strikezone $2,800.00 $(320.80) -11.5%
week profit/loss: -512.80
Sep 12th – Sep 18th +$14,773.89
Well that’s quite a turnaround. A fantastic week which has brought the profit for the year back into positive territory. As I’m betting between $60-100,000 a week, $20,000 swings are likely to be common place. I just hope I get a few months of wins before another big loss. With the Soccer season starting to really rev up, the majority of profit will be coming from the systems I am following.
These are XX Draws, FB Elite, Skeeve, Football Analyst, and Football Investor. That is a hell of a lot of bets per week. I’ll break each down and my expectations for the season.
XX draws is a system I have a lot of trust in. It has been developed by cassini of the very good Green All Over blog. A highly recommended read as he not only gives out some great advice once in a while, but the best part about cassini is that he doesn’t hold back and likes to start arguments with those he feels are doing the wrong thing, or who he feels are just plain idiots (Why he hasn’t had a dig at me as of yet I’m not sure, we’ll I am fairly sure it’s because I get about 50 people reading this blog compared to his many thousands and he has no time for us little meaningless fish). The reason I like this system is simple, people hate draws and no one ever bets on them, but they happen a hell of a lot, this means for a lot of games the prices available are great value. This is something that has been noted by Jonno at Sportpunter a number of times, people hate to back the unders in most sports as they want to see lots of goals/points. This makes backing unders very profitable in the right circumstances.
I am following the XX Draws and the Extended draws as well as Under 2.5 for each system at $500 per bet. Going off the only stats I can (last years results – I know, I know) I am hoping to make a bit over 100 points of profit. So anything over $50,000 will be amazing. These picks come out very early in the week and allow me to place the bets whenever I like, and as I have a hell of a lot to do on Saturdays I usually finish these on a friday night. They are all bets in Top flight leagues so getting on is a non issue. Long losing runs are to be expected with the draws, but the Under 2.5 should see some stability.
FB Elite is the first Soccer model I joined. It has been around for ages and even though the last few years have not matched the first few, it is still an amazing service. I’m hoping to make between 10-30 points profit this year with a betsize of $2,000. So between $20 – $60,000. All bets are in the big leagues and this year he is betting using mostly Asian handicaps to smooth out the varience. Easy to get bets on even though I bet them much later in the day.
Skeeve is another great service and knows the Blue Sq league better then anyone. I do have issues with the service, but they are because of my own situation and no reflection on his service. Being a lower league and me betting $400 per point, I find it very difficult to get my bets matched at the quoted odds, I have tried it all, getting up at 3am to place the bets as soon as they come out, waiting till 10minutes before the game, and many other options. I usually get close to but rarely better then the odds quoted. Luckily his ROI is so good that I should still make a healthy profit each year. Im hoping for about 50 points profit this season at $400 per point. So $20,000.
Football Analyst is a new system for me and I am following about 10 of the 1 billion different systems on offer. With the UK bets I am betting $750 home and $375 aways and for all euro league bets I will be betting $375. Graeme produced my very own spreadsheet on what I can expect and we are looking for a 100% ROC, which should see $75,000 added to the bank this season.
Finally there is Football Investor, a system I lost a bit on last year, but thought I would give another chance this year. I am betting $200 on FBI picks and $400 on Strikezone. I have no pre determined profits for these systems and just want to see how they perform over the year.
So that’s everything I’m following this year. The main issues are what do I do when two tipsters pick opposing teams. My solution to that is simple, bet each and every bet as is. They are all different systems, but have proven to make profit each year, so I will follow them accordingly. If things go to plan (that’s the most wishful thing every written on this blog), then I stand to make close to $200,000 for the season, hahahaha, even I know there is zero chance of that. But that’s the plan anyway, if I only get to half that goal then I’ll still be doing backflips.
Ok, onto this weeks awesome results.
Two AFL games and surprisingly the model picked the Fav in both. I say it all the time that I should never watch these games, but I really did grow some grey hairs while watching the Adelaide game, luckily they just covered the line for a great win. Collingwood also looked poor early before covering with ease. A nice $7,000 profit there.
Tennis continues it’s suckiness with $2,500 lost. Horses made $3,300 but I’ve had to take much worse odds lately and still am unsure If I will continue with it at the end of the year.
Soccer had a great week too. XX Draws added $4,300, FB Elite $1,300, Analyst $4,000. The losing models were Skeeve with -$1,200 and FB Investor with -$200.
The new bank amounts are below. (If a bank isn’t mentioned below then I am using a constant bank for it)
AFL H2H: $81348
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $75000
WTA: $75821
Total profit for the week was $14,773.89
AFL H2H – SP $22,847.00 $6,348.35 27.8%
week profit/loss: 1472
AFL Line – SP $141,101.00 $(10,868.98) -7.7%
week profit/loss: 5561.70
ATP – SP $111,055.00 $(4,529.36) -4.1%
week profit/loss: 620
WTA -SP $129,139.00 $821.37 0.6%
week profit/loss: -3138.81
New Horses $95,244.00 $4,398.00 4.6%
week profit/loss: 3385
XX Draws $8,000.00 $1,455.00 18.2%
week profit/loss: 1105
XX Draws Under $8,000.00 $(1,934.50) -24.2%
week profit/loss: 263
XX Extended $17,500.00 $806.50 4.6%
week profit/loss: 2490
XX Extended Under $17,500.00 $3,039.00 17.4%
week profit/loss: 418.50
FB Elite $6,050.00 $2,159.20 35.7%
week profit/loss: 1370
Skeeve $25,016.00 $(4,053.00) -16.2%
week profit/loss: -1199
6-22 $1,125.00 $52.50 4.7%
week profit/loss: 52.50
7-21 $2,250.00 $772.50 34.3%
week profit/loss: 1522.50
7-22 $435.00 $742.50 170.7%
week profit/loss: 742.50
8-21 $375.00 $802.50 214.0%
week profit/loss: 802.50
8-22 $375.00 $802.50 214.0%
week profit/loss: 802.50
Football Investor $1,000.00 $(380.00) -38.0%
week profit/loss: -380
Strikezone $800.00 $192.00 24.0%
week profit/loss: 192
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $587,812.00
Profit/Loss: $626.08
POT: 0.11%
Bets Placed: 809
Won: 344
Lost: 453
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 11
Winning %: 43.2%
Profit per day: $116,709.80 / 811 = $143.90
Aug 29th – Sep 11 -$14,400.85
This is a 2 week update as I spent the last week in Vegas. It seems whenever I travel the betting goes really poorly. A terrible fortnight and I’m fighting to keep above the 100k profit mark now. After 72 days into my 3rd year I am down over $15,000.
Last year the US Open saved my bank, this year it was pathetic and I was lucky I had some massive nights out and missed a lot of bets otherwise the damage would have been even worse. The XX Draws also had a horrendous week and lost the same amount as Tennis. Skeeve and FB Analyst also contributed to a pathetic 2 weeks.
A note on Skeeve, being in OZ, there are certain matches where the odds come in too much before I get a chance to bet them, so my results will not be a true reflection of the service. If you want a true reflection, Skeeve records his odds 10 minutes after his selections come out which is a very fair way to do it. Skeeves results for the season can be found here.
So a terrible fortnight and I am really questioning whether I should bother betting when I travel, as it is a real hassle and never seems to do well. I don’t have any trips planned until the new year so this shouldn’t be an issue for some time.
One last note, more and more Australian bookies are starting to limit or close my accounts. Since being bought by the big UK brands it has gotten much worse, the old Australian adage of a fair go is long gone and they are quick to fuck off anyone who might make a profit from them.
The new bank amounts are below. (If a bank isn’t mentioned below then I am using a constant bank for it)
AFL H2H: $79876
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $75000
WTA: $78960
Total loss for the week was $14,400.85
AFL H2H – SP $20,647.00 $4,876.35 23.6%
week profit/loss: -250
AFL Line – SP $135,018.00 $(16,430.68) -12.2%
week profit/loss: -1563
ATP – SP $110,131.00 $(5,149.36) -4.7%
week profit/loss: -5807.92
WTA -SP $118,063.00 $3,960.18 3.4%
week profit/loss: 88.57
New Horses $88,293.00 $1,013.00 1.1%
week profit/loss: 1035
XX Draws $5,500.00 $350.00 6.4%
week profit/loss: -1000
XX Draws Under $5,500.00 $(2,197.50) -40.0%
week profit/loss: -1000
XX Extended $13,500.00 $(1,683.50) -12.5%
week profit/loss: -2320
XX Extended Under $13,500.00 $2,620.50 19.4%
week profit/loss: -323.50
FB Elite $2,050.00 $789.20 38.5%
week profit/loss: 0
Skeeve $16,770.00 $(2,854.00) -17.0%
week profit/loss: -2510
7-21 $750.00 $(750.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -750
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $529,722.00
Profit/Loss: $(15,455.81)
POT: -2.92%
Bets Placed: 720
Won: 299
Lost: 411
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 10
Winning %: 42.1%
Profit per day: $100,627.91 / 804 = $125.15
Aug 22nd – Aug 28th +$9,406.60
Just a quick update this week as I am busy packing for my trip tomorrow. Yes, I’m off to VEGAS BABY. Ahh, it’s a tough life but somebody has to live it.
Things were looking terrible for the 3rd year as after a strong start which saw a peak of $19,000 profit, it crashed to a low of -$15,000. A $34,000 turnaround in a little under a month. I doubted I would see a break even amount for a few months, but Gold coast came to the rescue. A $350 bet on them at $21 and an extra $6,000 bet on the line paid out for a massive profit. AFL H2H ended with a $5,000 profit for the week and the Line betting made close to $2,000.
The US Open started last night and while the mens side did well, the WTA had a shocker with some big bets going down. Horses has continued its terrible month and is now back evens for the year,I will be using the bot while I am away for 10 days and upping the bets to $300 to compensate for the worse odds. A terrible idea, but nothing else I can do.
In Soccer, the XX draws had a great week and that includes two draws being taken away after the 90th minute. Loving this new service so far. Predictions come out early, easy to get on at good prices and so far some great profit. Skeeve was the only other Soccer model this week with recommended bets. I tried to stay up to 3am to place the bets but feel asleep, so I waited until just before the games started as was mentioned in his very helpful reports. Sadly this week the prices did not improve and I was left with some very poor odds. This week it will be a breeze to get on as I will be in a different timezone, but when I get back I will need to make sure I set an alarm and am up for his selections.
So a really good week and nothing to complain about. I’m off and as I’m likely to be drunk over the next 10 days, don’t count on an update for at least 2 weeks.
The new bank amounts are below. (If a bank isn’t mentioned below then I am using a constant bank for it)
AFL H2H: $80127
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $75658
WTA: $78871
Total profit for the week was $9,406.60
AFL H2H – SP $20,397.00 $5,126.35 25.1%
week profit/loss: 5127.20
AFL Line – SP $133,455.00 $(14,867.68) -11.1%
week profit/loss: 1972
ATP – SP $98,512.00 $658.56 0.7%
week profit/loss: 1247.74
WTA -SP $104,738.00 $3,871.61 3.7%
week profit/loss: -412.34
New Horses $69,850.00 $(22.00) 0.0%
week profit/loss: -2538
XX Draws $4,000.00 $1,350.00 33.8%
week profit/loss: 1300
XX Draws Under $4,000.00 $(1,197.50) -29.9%
week profit/loss: -1069
XX Extended $9,500.00 $636.50 6.7%
week profit/loss: 1915
XX Extended Under $9,500.00 $2,944.00 31.0%
week profit/loss: 1238
FB Elite $2,050.00 $789.20 38.5%
week profit/loss: 0
Skeeve $10,770.00 $(344.00) -3.2%
week profit/loss: 626
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $466,772.00
Profit/Loss: $(1,054.96)
POT: -0.23%
Bets Placed: 630
Won: 269
Lost: 356
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 5
Winning %: 43.0%
Profit per day: $115,028.76 / 790 = $145.60
Aug 15th – Aug 21st -$11,064.31
If I thought last week was bad, I had no idea how bad it could really get.
When the AFL model came out with its picks, I knew something was wrong, there were massive bets on every single game. As the season comes to an end, some very funny numbers are thrown up and the way the model is structured, it can not account for teams that have packed up for the season. But I trust the model over my own knowledge so I followed every bet. This resulted in the worst week for AFL I can ever remember. $9,000 gone in 2 days. Since moving my bank from $50,000 to $75,000 AFL has lost almost $17,000. It is still well up for the season but as is always the case, my timing has been amazing.
We are coming very close to the US Open and last year this was the big saviour for me, over the 2 week period, I think it made about $20,000 profit. I have no doubt that this can not be repeated again and just hope for a nice profitable two weeks for both ATP and WTA. This week saw a disaster for ATP with close to $4,500 lost, but WTA made a nice $3,300 profit to minimise the loss.
The Horse racing model continued its poor run.
This week also saw the first full round of Soccer and over all models it broke about even. I will talk more about the Soccer services the further we get into the season.
All up a bloody terrible week. Year 3 is 51 days old and has seen a high of $19,500 and today’s low of -$10,400. A swing of $30,000. With the amount I am betting, these swings are going to be common place. I still believe in each model I am following and can only hope they all start performing to their true potential and this $10k deficit will evaporate in no time and I’ll be well on my way to my $200,000 goal.
The new bank amounts are below. (If a bank isn’t mentioned below then I am using a constant bank for it)
AFL H2H: $75000
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $75000
WTA: $79283
Total loss for the week was $11,064.31
AFL H2H – SP $18,244.00 $(0.85) 0.0%
week profit/loss: -449.80
AFL Line – SP $113,555.00 $(16,839.68) -14.8%
week profit/loss: -8544
ATP – SP $84,646.00 $(589.18) -0.7%
week profit/loss: -4414.84
WTA -SP $88,163.00 $4,283.95 4.9%
week profit/loss: 3289.63
New Horses $57,614.00 $2,516.00 4.4%
week profit/loss: -1252
XX Draws $2,000.00 $50.00 2.5%
week profit/loss: 550
XX Draws Under $2,000.00 $(128.50) -6.4%
week profit/loss: -490
XX Extended $3,000.00 $(1,278.50) -42.6%
week profit/loss: -1278.50
XX Extended Under $3,000.00 $1,706.00 56.9%
week profit/loss: 1706
FB Elite $2,050.00 $789.20 38.5%
week profit/loss: 789.20
Skeeve $4,370.00 $(970.00) -22.2%
week profit/loss: -970
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $378,642.00
Profit/Loss: $(10,461.56)
POT: -2.76%
Bets Placed: 516
Won: 220
Lost: 291
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 5
Winning %: 43.1%
Profit per day: $105,622.16 / 783 = $134.89
Aug 8th – Aug 14th -$6,162.56
A terrible week for the Horse racing system. Over $6,000 lost. AFL Line betting had it’s first profitable week in a long time and I hope this is a sign of things to come. Both Tennis models performed poorly and the Soccer season started with a small loss for XX Draws.
After looking over the results of XX Draws, I came up with my season goal of $50,000 profit for this service. $500 per bet for each of the 4 bet types (Draws, Draws Under, Extended, Extended Under) should ensure that if past performance is anything to go by (which it never is).
Next week a few more soccer services will kick in and I can’t wait to get started.
The new bank amounts are below.
AFL H2H: $75448
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $78825
WTA: $75994
Total loss for the week was $6,162.56
AFL H2H – SP $14,269.00 $448.95 3.1%
week profit/loss: -400.75
AFL Line – SP $88,835.00 $(8,295.68) -9.3%
week profit/loss: 1845.34
ATP – SP $71,892.00 $3,825.66 5.3%
week profit/loss: -857.53
WTA -SP $72,466.00 $994.32 1.4%
week profit/loss: -460.12
New Horses $56,362.00 $3,768.00 6.7%
week profit/loss: -6151
XX Draws $500.00 $(500.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -500
XX Draws Under $500.00 $361.50 72.3%
week profit/loss: 361.50
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $304,824.00
Profit/Loss: $602.75
POT: 0.29%
Bets Placed: 414
Won: 181
Lost: 229
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 4
Winning %: 44.1%
Profit per day: $116,686.47 / 776= $150.36
Aug 1st – Aug 7th +$1,758.81
One of those weeks where I missed a massive profit because of just 1 kick. The big bet of the week was on the Western Bulldogs line at +48.5. At half time this bet was looking great with them trailing by just 2 points, at the end of the 3rd the bet was still looking very good, but a final quarter that saw 7.0 kicked against them to 1.6 for saw this bet lose. In two other games the bets lost by just one goal. If things had gone my way then this week could have had a $15,000 profit. But that’s gambling and compared to the last 3 weeks, AFL only had a very small loss for the week.
Tennis didn’t really move too much, Both making $300 profit. Horses once again did really well and pushed the week into profit with $2,600.
This slow period is coming to an end with the new soccer season starting this month. I have subscribed to no less then 5 services which should see me with no time at all on the weekends. Bets on Skeeve and FB Elite will increase, while FB investor has still not proven its worth to me yet so bet sizes will remain the same as last season. I will also be following the XX draws and FB analyst. I will be figuring out the bet sizes for them this week.
Jonno at Sportpunter has been doing some analysis on his models and which is the best way to bet them, using a constant bank, a moving bank for each individual model, or a moving bank for all combined models. Will be interesting to see the end results and I might change the way I bet because of it.
The new bank amounts are below.
AFL H2H: $75849
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $79683
WTA: $76454
Total loss for the week was $1,758.81
AFL H2H – SP $12,034.00 $849.70 7.1%
week profit/loss: -1546.02
AFL Line – SP $78,433.00 $(10,141.02) -12.9%
week profit/loss: 17.90
ATP – SP $61,542.00 $4,683.19 7.6%
week profit/loss: 319.98
WTA -SP $63,768.00 $1,454.44 2.3%
week profit/loss: 365.95
New Horses $45,769.00 $9,919.00 21.7%
week profit/loss: 2601
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $261,546.00
Profit/Loss: $6,765.31
POT: 2.59%
Bets Placed: 352
Won: 157
Lost: 194
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 1
Winning %: 44.7%
Profit per day: $122,849.03 / 769 = $159.75
July 25th – July 31st -$6,248.33
Back from my holiday and this weeks loss would have been much less if I had stayed home. I missed some tennis bets because I was on a plane, which cost $3,000 in profit and by having to take Betfair prices for my horse racing bets, I cost myself at least another $3,000. A real shame, and there is another 11 day holiday to Vegas at the end of August, so will really need to work out what I am going to do. If I want to enjoy myself I just need to accept that whenever I travel, it is going to make it hard to get the bets on at the time they need to be placed. The whole reason I am hoping to make a living from this is so I can travel the world to my hearts content, so these losses are just something I need to accept. Reading that back, I doubt I’ll get any sympathy at all, it sounds like I’m complaining because I get to go on holidays.
AFL has now had 3 terrible weeks, just have to keep placing those bets and hope for a turnaround, still well up for the year, but a shame this losing run started when I increased my bank by 50%.
Tennis has also had a terrible start to the Olympics tournament. A few big bets on favs losing.
Horse Racing did well and total profit is not far off $40,000. I have upped my stakes from 200 to 250 per unit.
The new bank amounts are below.
AFL H2H: $77395
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $79363
WTA: $76088
Total loss for the week was $6,248.33
AFL H2H – SP $8,223.00 $2,395.72 29.1%
week profit/loss: 45
AFL Line – SP $58,663.00 $(10,158.92) -17.3%
week profit/loss: -5167
ATP – SP $51,982.00 $4,363.21 8.4%
week profit/loss: -3449.94
WTA -SP $53,573.00 $1,088.49 2.0%
week profit/loss: -1046.39
New Horses $36,842.00 $7,318.00 19.9%
week profit/loss: 3370
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $209,283.00
Profit/Loss: $5,006.50
POT: 2.39%
Bets Placed: 281
Won: 127
Lost: 153
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 1
Winning %: 45.4%
Profit per day: $121,090.22 / 762 = $158.91
July 18th – July 24th +$3,373.41
Just a quick update this week as I am in Fiji and would prefer to enjoy myself then talk about this frustrating week.
AFL started well again this week as the biggest bet on Hawthorn won easily, but then every other bet lost. This will change for the better pretty soon. Tennis has performed well, and that doesn’t account for me missing some bets which have cost $3,000 profit. I didn’t check the time difference and it was an expensive error.
My Horse racing as well has been very frustrating and another $3,000 has been lost by me being on holiday. The other day the service had one of its biggest days ever, if I was at home and placing the bets straight away instead of on betfair, I would have made an extra $3000, and then last night all the profits were returned with a terrible nights worth of results.
So this holiday has so far cost $6,000 extra profit, but I’m having a blast and hopefully over time these things will even out.
Anyway back to sand, sun and umm well yes, you know what…
The new bank amounts are below. All have risen except for AFL Line bets.
AFL H2H: $77135
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $82813
WTA: $77134
Total profit for the week was $3,373.41
AFL H2H – SP $6,195.00 $2,350.72 37.9%
week profit/loss: 956
AFL Line – SP $45,048.00 $(4,991.92) -11.1%
week profit/loss: -2844
ATP – SP $37,784.00 $7,813.15 20.7%
week profit/loss: 1979.11
WTA -SP $37,685.00 $2,134.88 5.7%
week profit/loss: 2570.58
New Horses $28,020.00 $3,948.00 14.1%
week profit/loss: 711
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $154,732.00
Profit/Loss: $11,254.83
POT: 7.27%
Bets Placed: 199
Won: 96
Lost: 102
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 1
Winning %: 48.5%
Profit per day: $127,338.55 / 755 = $168.66
