July 11th – July 17th -$5,608.85
This was the week I had to have, The amazing AFL run ended abruptly with just 1 win from 11 bets. This coincided with the second week of moving banks which meant I was betting much more then usual. Tennis continued its recent good form with ATP adding $5,500. Horses made a loss of $800.
This week I’ll be enjoying some sun in Fiji. I will be using a bot to place the horse racing bets, which usually means worse odds of at least $1. To compensate for this I’ll be upping my bets from $200 a race to $300. This means if its a bad week, i’ll lose an extra 50%. This is something I have been thinking about for a while, as just using a bot would save me time and hassle, the odds are much worse but still profitable, so we will see how this small test goes. All other bets will be placed as per usual.
In the end, not as terrible as it could have been and something I was expecting. Let’s hope it is only a blip for the AFL model and it’s back to its winning ways this weekend.
The new bank amounts are below. Both AFL models have dropped, ATP has risen and WTA has stayed the same.
AFL H2H: $76394
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $80834
WTA: $75000
Total loss for the week was $5,608.85
AFL H2H – SP $3,808.00 $1,394.00 36.6%
week profit/loss: -1337
AFL Line – SP $32,833.00 $(2,147.92) -6.5%
week profit/loss: -9156.99
ATP – SP $24,359.00 $5,834.04 24.0%
week profit/loss: 5525.17
WTA -SP $23,002.00 $(435.70) -1.9%
week profit/loss: 182.98
New Horses $14,263.00 $3,237.00 22.7%
week profit/loss: -823
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $98,265.00
Profit/Loss: $7,881.42
POT: 8.02%
Bets Placed: 130
Won: 63
Lost: 66
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 1
Winning %: 48.8%
Profit per day: $123,965.14 / 748 = $165.72
July 4th – July 10th + $13,490.27
A great start to year 3. This was the first week that the banks were increased to $75,000.
AFL had another amazing week, and it could have been $6,000 better if not for 1 goal. But a profit of almost $10,000 is still amazing.
The end of Wimbledon was not great, but I didn’t mind losing the $700 bet on Murray, as I love watching Fed win.
Horse betting came good this week with $4,000 profit, I am tracking my bookmaker odds versus BF odds and after a month will make a decision in regards to just placing all bets at Betfair, I might just up my stakes to cover the potential lower odds. This will save me 3 hours a night of having to be in front of the computer, that time is worth much more to me then the difference in profit.
A strong start to my 3rd year. I mentioned that each bank would move at the end of each Monday. The new bank amounts are below.
AFL H2H: $77731
AFL Line: $82009
ATP: $75308
WTA: $75000
Total profit for the week was $13,490.27
AFL H2H – SP $2,471.00 $2,731.00 110.5%
week profit/loss: 2731
AFL Line – SP $18,698.00 $7,009.08 37.5%
week profit/loss: 7009.08
ATP – SP $5,906.00 $308.87 5.2%
week profit/loss: 308.87
WTA -SP $7,479.00 $(618.68) -8.3%
week profit/loss: -618.68
New Horses $8,110.00 $4,060.00 50.1%
week profit/loss: 4060
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $42,664.00
Profit/Loss: $13,490.27
POT: 31.62%
Bets Placed: 53
Won: 27
Lost: 26
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 0
Winning %: 50.9%
Profit per day: $129,573.99 / 741 = $174.86
Year 3 – New bank
For the past 2 years, my bank for most models was $50,000 with different Kelly amounts depending on how confident I was in the model. I did not move these banks once during that time, but made slight adjustments to the Kellys. Including my initial starting bank, my total bank now stands at $166,000.
To be safe, I am only increasing my bank to $75,000. A 50% increase. This will be the base limit, it will not drop below this. But I will be incorporating an independent moving bank at the end of each week for each model. If the tennis model makes $10,000 in the first week, the bank for Tennis will be $85,000 for week two, if it loses $20,000 in the second week, the bank will revert to the base of $75,000 and continue at that number until it is in profit again.
The goal for this year is to achieve a Return on Capital of 200% which totals $150,000. Which is $410 a day. I can’t really change the website address, so daily25.com really doesn’t have much meaning any longer, but everything will stay at this site.
I see no reason for this goal not to be achieved and with a moving bank, it may even surpass it. Only time will tell.
June 27th – July 3rd +$9,293.00
This week I said goodbye to my old spreadsheet, and hello to a new shiny one from Aussportsbetting . His old spreadsheet had served me very well for the past two years, but this new one will help me analyse my data much better. Just to keep the numbers simple, this update will have data till the 30th of June and next weeks will have from the 1st of July. I will not be porting across the old data, so if the number look weird in the coming weeks you know why.
This week ended 2 years of betting and I really did not think I would make $100,000 before July 1st, but I ended up smashing that figure. Bet number 13,605 was the last bet and it was a win of $380 for the horse racing system. That win took the total profit to just over $116,000 for the two years. An amazing result.
This week saw the worst week of AFL all year with the big line bet going down. A profit of only $87. When the worst week is a profit, you know your onto a winner. I did say last week that AFL was due for a terrible week and I just hoped that Tennis or Horse racing would cover its losses, sadly Horse Racing lost another $1,000, but after a terrible day 1, Wimbledon has been fantastic, generating over $10,000 profit this week. I had to double check the WTA, as I thought I must have made a mistake somewhere.
So that ends year 2. $5.76 million bet for $116,000 profit at 2% ROI and a 232% ROC. Going into year 3, and having only the best services, I hope I can achieve a ROI of 5% and ROC of 200%.
Sure beats the stock market.
Total profit for the week was $9,293.00
AFL $108,382.00 $2,763.73 2.5%
week profit/loss: -363
AFL line $424,183.00 $77,180.31 18.2%
week profit/loss: 450.40
Tennis – ATP $817,833.13 $34,562.64 4.2%
week profit/loss: 3832.67
WTA – Tennis $843,620.00 $12,332.07 1.5%
week profit/loss: 6395.93
New Horses $183,929.18 $30,818.48 16.8%
week profit/loss: -1023
Stats
Total bet amount: $5,766,632.62
Profit/Loss: $116,083.72
POT: 2.0%
Bets Placed: 13,605
Won: 5,578
Lost: 7,579
Half Payout: 4
Refunded: 444
Winning %: 42.4%
Profit per day: 116,083.72 / 734 = $158.15
June 20th – June 26th +$1,927.03
Back to the grindstone after last weeks milestone. I am planning out the new staking for the start of my 3rd year. I will be posting about that in the coming days, but for now a quick recap of the weeks betting.
AFL started with 2 losses but as always this season, it stormed back with the two big bets coming in easily. H2H and Line combined brought in $4,900.
Wimbledon has started for another year and last night saw $4,000 lost. I have not had a look at past grass performance, but hopefully things turn around for the rest of the tournament. $1.900 lost between ATP & WTA.
Horses had a break even week until last night, with 10 losers and 1 winner paying $1.25. Just over $1,000 lost this week.
All up AFL once again helps the bank to continue its upward slope. Eventually it will have a bad week, I just hope the Tennis and Horses can pick up the slack when it does.
Total profit for the week was $1,927.03
AFL $107,667.00 $3,126.73 2.9%
week profit/loss: 1322
AFL line $417,203.00 $76,729.91 18.4%
week profit/loss: 3558
Tennis – ATP $807,685.13 $30,729.97 3.8%
week profit/loss: -2346.27
WTA – Tennis $834,861.00 $5,936.14 0.7%
week profit/loss: 454.30
New Horses $180,954.18 $31,841.48 17.6%
week profit/loss: -1061
Stats
Total bet amount: $5,737,055.62
Profit/Loss: $106,790.72
POT: 1.9%
Bets Placed: 13,505
Won: 5,526
Lost: 7,532
Half Payout: 4
Refunded: 443
Winning %: 42.3%
Profit per day: 106,790.72 / 727 = $146.89
$100,000 profit reached.
WOW WOW WOW
At 2:30am this morning I changed a p for pending to a y for yes in my spreadsheet on Kirsten Flipkens. I had bet $115 at odds of $12 and her win over Sam Stosur pushed my total profit to just over $100,000. Trumpets started playing, fireworks were exploding outside my window and a marching band trudged through my room before a supermodel popped out of a 6ft tall cake… OK, well most of those things may not of happened, but it sure did feel like it. I had hit the magic 6 figures and even though I was sleep deprived, a big smile spread across my face and a feeling of calm and relief surged through my body. Then it was straight back to work. This next $100k isn’t going to make itself.
The last 720 days have been a real journey, the amazing ups, the “o my god, what am i doing? gambling is going to send me to the poor house” downs, and the extremely boring sideways movements. I always try and say that I am in control of my emotions when it comes to my weekly profits, but who am I kidding. When I have a bad week it hurts and when I have a great week, I’m on a massive high. Along with Alcohol, gambling is my drug of choice. I have become a lot more detached from my results, but I doubt ill ever become totally unemotional towards the results.
It took 513 days to reach my first major goal of $50,000 and only 207 more for the next $50,000. Those first 513 days were filled with so many mistakes and bad money management calls from me, it’s a massive surprise I didn’t lose everything and that I’m still here today. The second $50,000 I have felt I know what I am doing now and have a lot of faith in the models I am following, it’s also very strange that my profit per day over the last 207 days has been $241, very very close to my stated goal of $250 a day.
So where do I even start breaking this all down. Where else but with a graph. If you don’t like graphs, then you better leave now.
Total profit graph
click image to enlarge
Taking a very simplistic look at the graph, you can see that for the first year and a bit it didn’t ever break much further then the $40,000 mark. That first year felt like treading water, the initial enthusiasm at reaching $40,000 after such a short period of time quickly waned, and then it was months and months of wondering if this was really worth my time. Then when I was overseas and getting my monkey back at home to place my bets, everything went to shit. I left with the profit at $40,000 and a month and a bit into the trip he had managed to lose all my profit and then put me in the red for a further $8,000. I had to make some drastic decision while on holiday and it was Formbet which was the major culprit (I was also staking way to much on it) and it needed to go. I told him to stop following that and concentrate on the models I had much more trust in. Fortunately the US open started and the tennis model was just amazing over that tournament. I had been to the Aussie open a few times when betting on it and it has always ended in a loss, but I was at the US open and the profits were amazing. By the time I returned from my 2 and a bit months abroad, the profit was back to around $35,000. I am so glad I was not at my computer day after day as those losses piled up. To be honest, I’m not really sure I would be writing this now if i hadn’t taken that trip. It was when I got home that I decided I really needed to stop making stupid mistakes and concentrate on what had been making me profit and discard all the rubbish I was following purely to have something to bet on. I stripped down my portfolio and this I feel really helped to achieve what I have today. Since that day you can see the beauty of the graph, a sexy (can graph lines be sexy?) upwards trajectory.
Model by Model Breakdown
I’d first like to say a massive THANK YOU to Jonno at Sportpunter.com. His was the first betting site I ever came across, and over the years we have talked and become great friends, so much so, he will be joining me and my mates when we head to Vegas at the end of August. So disclaimer here, we are great friends, but I feel I am very honest when it comes to reviewing all models and when his models are not performing, I have no hesitation in saying so. He has helped with all my excel problems, any stupid questions I may have had and just been a great sounding board. Thanks mate.
Sportpunter MLB
This model is not actually Jonno’s, it is supplied by CRDOG. I stopped this year as there were some issues with release times and pinnicle prices, but looking at the betting history, I really shouldn’t have. 2012 seems to have been another great year. I really had no reason to quit as I had made $32,850.28 at 3.18% over the past year and a half. I will need to reassess my position in the coming weeks as I feel I may have left this one prematurely.
Baseball $444,047.01 $11,834.15 2.7%
Baseball Line $587,551.00 $21,016.13 3.6%
Sportpunter AFL
Ahh AFL, I know your sick of me talking about it, so just look at the numbers below. The only downer was the totals, which I should never have followed. I won’t be following these until they have shown a few years of steady profit. There are so many factors that work against it, needing to know the weather details before a match, and the fact that all the bookies price these up at 1.88 each side. H2H hasn’t had the best time of it, but I do have a much reduced Kelly on them as their strike-rate is very low. Jonno advised me a year ago that Line betting is where I would make most of my profit and he was not kidding. A total bet amount of $644,571.00 for a return of $59,341.34 with an incredible ROI of 11.49%.
AFL $106,057.00 $1,804.73 1.7%
AFL line $410,425.00 $73,171.91 17.8%
AFL Totals $128,089.00 $(15,635.30) -12.2%
Sportpunter Tennis
This one has been really frustrating at times. It is the standout model alongside the AFL one, but can hit really rough patches that can last an entire year. I have been down $20,000 at one stage with Tennis before it went on an amazing run and got as high as $40,000 profit, but again this year, WTA has been terrible and ATP’s profit has not covered its loss. I will continue with it as I am still in profit, but I really do expect a bit more from this model.
Tennis – ATP $783,184.13 $33,076.24 4.2%
WTA – Tennis $809,342.00 $5,481.84 0.7%
Sportpunter Soccer
Another really good model, but my god this was way too much work. I remember placing these bets on a saturday afternoon and it would take up to 5 hours to filter them and then place all the bets. My girlfriend was not happy at all. I had to give this up as the effort here was not worth the reward.
Soccer H2H $157,911.00 $5,491.83 3.5%
Over Soccer $95,159.00 $3,601.79 3.8%
Under Soccer $204,993.00 $(3,413.25) -1.7%
Sportpunter NRL
Never made any profit from this, Won’t ever follow it again. No idea how Jonno is so good at AFL and so terrible at NRL, I’m guessing because he is a Melbourne boy and just doesn’t understand NRL.
NRL $28,367.00 $(7,863.97) -27.7%
Sportpunter NFL
Another one that I just couldn’t make a profit on. This may be due to my terrible timing, but I wont bother with it anymore.
NFL $42,887.00 $(5,664.99) -13.2%
NFL Line $15,235.00 $(1,058.57) -6.9%
Sportpunter NHL
I really gave this one a good go, but each season just seemed to be about break-even. Another one not worth my time.
NHL – Totals $287,241.00 $(5,138.61) -1.8%
Sportpunter NBL
This is also a no brainer. The model is brilliant at totals and shit at H2H. I actually decreased my kelly on totals this year, If i had kept it at the first years amount the profit would have been double. I will continue with the totals next year without doubt and expect a very healthy profit.
NBL $50,926.00 $(8,743.99) -17.2%
NBL Totals $54,027.00 $7,116.71 13.2%
Sportpunter NBA
This is a tough one, the Line betting is from my first year betting, but this past season I didn’t bet it and it went amazing. Next season I believe i’ll follow all 3 and see how it goes. I also use the NBA data to place my own bets on a certain market which has proved to be very profitable and I will be scaling that up next season to see if it wasnt just a fluke this year.
NBA Line $26,303.00 $(1,910.74) -7.3%
NBA Totals $291,522.00 $3,248.59 1.1%
NBA H2H $72,076.00 $424.15 0.6%
Sportpunter College Ball
Can never get the lines or odds quoted so pointless to follow this.
College Ball $26,975.00 $(4,557.77) -16.9%
Formbet
This was a real lesson and caused a real uproar when i posted my results and said I was not following the service any longer. In total I lost $24,200 follow Formbets many systems. I had joined as the service seemed to have a great history. The ease of setting a bot and going to sleep was also a big draw. But in the end it was partly my blame by staking to much and partly formbets for not being in my eyes a profitable service, I stuck with it for a good 6 months if not longer and it just did not live up to its previous results.
Golf $18,027.00 $(10,185.25) -56.5%
TOP3 $42,656.00 $5,634.00 13.2%
Lays $3,007.36 $(926.64) -30.8%
Value $10,500.00 $3,204.00 30.5%
Formbet $224,207.44 $(20,388.12) -9.1%
Yellow&Green $2,800.00 $(1,600.00) -57.1%
Lucky Syndicate
Another error made by me here. I started following his blog and his tips and only lost a small amount before giving it up. I then stumbled on his site again and he was offering an sms service, I joined, lost money and realised I should have done a lot more research before following someone, I remember asking if he could send me his previous history or any stats and the reply was, I never keep that info, as long as I’m up at the end of the month I’m happy. Let’s just say in hindsight I see how stupid I was.
Horse Racing $87,652.00 $(942.60) -1.1%
100k Horse $13,569.00 $(4,814.67) -35.5%
Oz horses $35,919.50 $(3,411.97) -9.5%
Kiwi
Another simple silly mistake. Following a member of the Sportpunter forum who would put up his tips. No fault but my own and I harbour no ill feelings towards Kiwi.
Kiwi $92,710.00 $(5,026.69) -5.4%
Horse racing Take 2
Another stupid mistake, following a brand new unproven system from a team that did have a really good system. The system was scraped after a few months and membership fees returned.
Horse take 2 $26,400.00 $(2,918.70) -11.1%
Soccer Tipsters
I’ll put these all into the one category. They are still a work in progress and I will be following them next season apart from formlabbalck. This is where I’m hoping a new profit stream will come from. Skeeve did not seem to happy with me as my results were not in line with his, but I did mention that I missed some very profitable weeks while travelling for soccer. Hopefully this year I won’t miss any bets and rake in the profit.
FB Elite $47,140.00 $3,515.55 7.5%
Skeeve $46,989.00 $1,814.59 3.9%
Football Investor$60,389.00 $(3,711.50) -6.1%
Strikezone $95,125.00 $2,060.20 2.2%
Formlabblack $66,835.00 $(2,631.87) -3.9%
Horse racing Take 3
Finally found a UK horse system that I think is brilliant, having many issues with getting on at the same odds, but if I can double my bank each year then I won’t complain.
New Horses $175,949.18 $32,902.48 18.7%
Hugh Taylor
Followed this for a week, but it’s to much effort. Had to be at the comp at the exact time and would miss prices before they crashed.
Hugh Taylor $1,448.00 $12.00 0.8%
Wow, that was really really boring. For the 3 people who made it all the way here, thanks for visiting and posting comments. Makes me feel less crazy and that I’m not just talking to myself. Another thank you goes to my cousin who has been by my side doing the same thing for the past 2 years, always great to have a companion and it’s always fun to yell at players or teams together, and cheer on horses. I expect lots more entertaining times and hopefully much more profit.
Next week i’ll spell out my new bank and staking plans. I will be upping stakes as of July 1st.
The next major goal is off course $250k. I hope to see that magic number in about another year and a half.
June 13th – June 19th +$13,494.41
WOOOHHHOOOOOOO
11 days short of my second year of betting, I have passed the magic 6 figures profit mark. The past 720 days have been crazy, exhausting, scary, fun, boring, exhilarating and a million other emotions that come with risking a hell of a lot of money each and every day on a simple hypothesis that a mathematical program can find value in sports betting. I’ve been through the early success of my profit hitting $40,000 within 4 months of starting, and then plunging to a loss of $8,000 in September 2011, where I had serious thoughts about packing this whole thing in. I was actually at the home of gambling (Vegas) when things started to turnaround and since then it has been a steady growth to $100,000.
Lets first do a quick review of this week and then I’ll get into all the stats and add some pretty pictures on my next post.
AFL as per usual is amazing, the model has always been a stand-out, but this season is something I doubt can be recreated. $1,000 lost on H2H with so many dogs losing by under a kick. The Line produced another $6,000 profit. To put it simply, your an idiot if you aren’t subscribed to this model. To make it even easier, here is a direct link to signup. If there is one takeaway from me making 100k it’s that this model is amazing. I will get into more details in my next post, but it has contributed 60% of my total profit.
Tennis has moved to grass and with it the ATP has had some really nice dogs getting up. Nadal must have been tired and wanting some rest, and other large wins by opposing Federer and Tsonga this week resulted in $3,700 profit. WTA broke even thanks largely to Sam Stosur going down last night to someone ranked 250 places below her.
Finally, Horse racing picked up again this week with most of the profit coming in the last two days. I have been working hard to get the best possible odds and am doing a lot of analysis to see what the best options are. A nice $4,700 profit has put it back on track.
I assumed this was a slow period as I am betting on so few sports, but these 3 models are the ones I have a lot of confidence in and it is showing in my profits.
Just a note that today as I was looking through my spreadsheet, I noticed an error in the total column for amount bet, it had not added some columns, so instead of being just over $5million bet, it is now $5.6million bet. Not a big issue, but does change my ROI.
A brilliant return this week and a very special week it is. The next post will be all about the $100,000 mark and a breakdown of everything.
Total profit for the week was $13,494.41
AFL $106,057.00 $1,804.73 1.7%
week profit/loss: -948
AFL line $410,425.00 $73,171.91 17.8%
week profit/loss: 6167.75
Tennis – ATP $783,184.13 $33,076.24 4.2%
week profit/loss: 3710.70
WTA – Tennis $809,342.00 $5,481.84 0.7%
week profit/loss: -157.54
New Horses $175,949.18 $32,902.48 18.7%
week profit/loss: 4723.50
Stats
Total bet amount: $5,673,642.62
Profit/Loss: $104,863.69
POT: 1.8%
Bets Placed: 13,424
Won: 5,489
Lost: 7,493
Half Payout: 4
Refunded: 438
Winning %: 42.3%
Profit per day: 104,863.69 / 720 = $145.64
June 6th – June 12th -$3,941.68
A concern I have had for a while cropped up again this week with my Horse betting system. With all my UK accounts being closed and having to rely on Australian books only (I’ve been limited at one already), I am gettin $1 – $2 worse odds on average per race. So what was a small losing week according to the website is a significant loss for me. I always knew this was going to be an issue with horse racing, but thought I would have much more time before I had to accept such poor odds, doing the maths, it will still be profitable, but instead of aiming for 5 times my bank per year, I may have to be happy with 1 – 2 times my bank profit. For the amount of work and time that goes into these bets, it might not be worth it. If anyone has any advice on how to keep the Uk books open and taking these bets it would be greatly appreciated.
A small turnover week as we had the later rounds of the French open in the Tennis, and the AFL only advised one larger bet this week. AFL still managed to make a profit and tennis lost a little. It was the -$5,300 from the horse racing that did the damage this week.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on the Horse racing and see what can be done.
Total loss for the week was $3,941.68
AFL $105,109.00 $2,752.73 2.6%
week profit/loss: 391.50
AFL line $403,290.00 $67,004.16 16.6%
week profit/loss: 1323.50
Tennis – ATP $772,199.13 $29,365.54 3.8%
week profit/loss: -1176.12
WTA – Tennis $793,669.00 $5,639.38 0.7%
week profit/loss: 837.44
New Horses $169,771.68 $28,178.98 16.6%
week profit/loss: -5318
Stats
Total bet amount: $5,115,922.94
Profit/Loss: $91,369.28
POT: 1.8%
Bets Placed: 13,316
Won: 5,436
Lost: 7,440
Half Payout: 4
Refunded: 436
Winning %: 42.2%
Profit per day: 91,369.28 / 713 = $128.14
May 30th – June 5th +$13,358.52
I don’t think I’ll ever get used to the swings involved with betting. Friday morning I hit $90,000 profit for the first time and believe I’m well on my way to $100k, Sunday morning I’m at $81,000 and thinking this is all shit. Monday morning I’m at $95,000 and have no idea what happened. It really works you over and you really never know what will come next.
This was one of those weeks that had so many highs and lows and every sport ended up contributing to a very healthy total. For the first time since I can remember, AFL H2H contributed more then Line betting. AFL combined added $6,600 this week. ATP has done very well for this French open, adding over $3,000 to my profit. WTA was break even. Finally, Horses added an extra $3,200 to end an amazing week.
July 1st will herald 2 years of betting and when I started I had no idea how far this would have gone. I have subscribed to so many betting blogs and the vast majority are no longer around after just a few months, let alone a year or more. I realise how hard it is and has been for myself, and have been close to quitting, as close as just 9 months ago when my betting profit went from $40,000 to -$8,000 in the space of a month. Happily I persevered and hoped that I had learnt some very valuable lessons, which I have translated into my betting banks, what I choose to follow and how quickly I can now discard of non profitable systems.
It has been written that it takes 10,000 hours of practice and study to become an expert at something. After 700 days and an average of 2-3 hours a day, I’m only an expert at placing bets. I have to decide whether to continue following others models and being happy with the returns, or if I devote more of my time to coming up with my own models and systems. The biggest issue I have is having to rely on others for my betting profits, and what I would do if any of them stopped their service. But I see this as a hobby and I don’t have the maths skills or love or any particular sport to spend my time and effort in developing my own models. I have over the years noticed trends and movements I think I can take advantage of and have been testing them out. After a successful experiment earlier this year, I will be testing it with much larger stakes when the new season starts and hope this is something that in the future I may be able to share with others.
Anyway, enough blabbering by me. Hopefully I can reach a goal within the next few weeks that I seriously wasn’t sure was possible. In the past two years I have moved my kellys a few times but never my starting bank size of $50,000. The $100,000 goal will see a new bank size of $75,000 while the kellys will stay the same. I will also be using a moving bank from here on, moving each model independently at the end of each week. I feel this will help grow my profits to the original goal of $250 a day profit.
Looking forward to my 3rd year at this and hoping that my bank keeps growing.
Total profit for the week was $13,358.52
AFL $104,741.00 $2,361.23 2.3%
week profit/loss: 3447.14
AFL line $401,035.00 $65,680.66 16.4%
week profit/loss: 3146
Tennis – ATP $764,279.13 $30,541.66 4.0%
week profit/loss: 3499.20
WTA – Tennis $784,631.00 $4,801.94 0.6%
week profit/loss: 64.18
New Horses $163,165.68 $33,496.98 20.5%
week profit/loss: 3202
Stats
Total bet amount: $5,096,341.94
Profit/Loss: $95,310.96
POT: 1.9%
Bets Placed: 13,291
Won: 5,426
Lost: 7,425
Half Payout: 4
Refunded: 436
Winning %: 42.2%
Profit per day: 95,310.96 / 706 = $135.00
May 23rd – May 29th -$3,068.75
What a pain in the arse the last few days have been. Here I was on Sunday arvo sitting on $89,400 profit and watching Melb fighting hard against Carlton. I had $2,500 on the line at +52 and the bet looked like a winner. Carlton ends up kicking a goal after the siren to beat the line. Was really painful to watch and started a terrible run of bets. Since then the French open has started with disastrous results and every big bet just seems to be losing.
AFL had a rare losing week. I have decided to finally scrap totals betting, I did not want to play it this year but on the advise of Jonno I continued, but even though Jonnos really good with total betting, this one needs a bit of work I feel. Even with the Melbourne loss, Line betting made $1,500. But totals and H2H lost $3,400.
The French open has begun terribly, The week up to the tournament had some great results in ATP and WTA, but in just a day and a half of play, all those profits have been erased and an extra $2,000 has been lost. As I write this a few +$1,000 bets on short odds are looking like losing.
A small profit was made on my horse racing, but the last 5 months have seen no growth. This is due to the model not performing great, but more so to the fact I have to rely on Australian books for my prices now. I am getting on average $1 worse odds on each race. With a bet of $200 per race and an average of 3 winners a night, this could be costing me over $4,000 a week in profit. I will be trying a few things this week to see if I can get similar prices once again, but it doesn’t look good, and without the best prices this model won’t be making much profit.
Some weeks it just gets to you, this is one of those weeks. It’s not the amount lost, as compared to other weeks it barely rates. It’s the constant hassle of books being closed down, having to take crappy odds, things just not going your way and the added hassle of most bets needing to be placed at times that are not optimal for me. I think I said it last week, this is a job for an older person who has a family. I will continue on as I know my bank will keep growing and eventually I’ll be making $100,000 a year and the time and sacrifices will be worth it. I really can’t complain, but I did.
Total profit for the week was $3,068.75
AFL $103,677.00 $(1,085.91) -1.0%
week profit/loss: -414.35
AFL line $390,035.00 $62,534.66 16.0%
week profit/loss: 1490.10
AFL Totals $128,089.00 $(15,635.30) -12.2%
week profit/loss: -2966.20
Tennis – ATP $753,466.13 $27,042.46 3.6%
week profit/loss: -1989.02
WTA – Tennis $774,707.00 $4,737.76 0.6%
week profit/loss: 22.72
New Horses $151,777.68 $30,294.98 20.0%
week profit/loss: 788
Stats
Total bet amount: $5,063,540.94
Profit/Loss: $81,952.44
POT: 1.6%
Bets Placed: 13,208
Won: 5,382
Lost: 7,386
Half Payout: 4
Refunded: 436
Winning %: 42.2%
Profit per day: 81,952.44 / 699 = $116.72
