Changing TFA bet size

With over $56,000 lost in less then 2 months following TFA and no confidence in the model, it’s time to lower the bets to stay in the game for as long as possible. I hate doing this as I have pretty much conceded that at best this season will be breakeven, Hell, if it does reach breakeven I’ll streak down my street. It will off course be very likely that as of this week the whole thing turns around and it goes on the greatest run it ever has.

But I have to be realistic and another bad week means the entire bank will be gone. I want to still be around in the new year in the hopes we have the same sort of return as last season.

The old bets were $600 on Homes and $350 on Aways. This will change to $500 Homes and $250 Aways.

It’s going to hurt either way. If it continues to suck I will lose money and still not really be that happy knowing I would have lost even more and if it goes onto win I will be pissed that I could have made so much more.

What have other TFA members done? I know of one who has already stopped.

30. October 2013 by admin
Categories: news | 6 comments

Please explain Pinnacle

I love Pinnacle Sports, over 60% of my bets are placed there and apart from the Australian specific sports and the lower English soccer leagues, I can always get my bets fully matched. They are known as the best sportsbook out there and a lot of their advertising is centered around the fact that “Winner are Welcome”. Here is a blurb found on Pinnacles site.

What happens to successful players elsewhere?

If you are a consistently profitable player at other online bookmakers, you will find your stakes limited, or in some cases your account closed. Clearly everyone who bets aspires to be profitable, so there is a huge disincentive to opening an account with a bookmaker that operates this policy. Crucially, you won’t find this advertised alongside their sign-up incentives.

Pinnacle Sports is clear on these issues: winners are welcome, and our high limits apply equally to all customers.

I have bolded the last sentence and once again bring it to your attention. “our high limits apply equally to all customers”

This website has allowed me to meet a vast variety of professional and part time bettors and we do talk on a regular basis. A sort of sports betting brains trust.

The new NBA season is upon as and we were talking about some new strategies and by pure chance we saw that Pinnacle is in fact limiting some players. I asked the players to send me a screenshot and you can see below that one of them is limited to win $10,000 and the other has a raised limit and can win up to $14,000. My personal account also has a 10k max win.

explain

As is clear here, their high limits DO NOT apply equally to all customers. After talking some more we came to our own conclusions. The account with the higher limits is a long term loser with Pinnacle while the lower (or what looks like the line that the majority of people get), has been a long term winner. It is 100% clear that Pinnacle does do some sort of profiling of their players and do change the amount they are allowed to bet. In this case it makes no difference as the limits are so high, but the bigger issue is that Pinnacle’s advertising is also misleading.

After some more looking around, all max bets on all sports and bet types are different for these accounts. I think Pinnacle has a lot of explaining to do.

28. October 2013 by admin
Categories: news | 12 comments

Oct 23rd – Oct 29th -$14,376.16

A full week back at home, but no change to the carnage. The midweek TFA bets were worse then I could of imagined and has decimated my bank and confidence. Things would have looked much worse if I had not started on a very lucky run for NBL and NHL. Can’t wait for October to be over, not that November will be any better, but the last two months have taken a real toll. Can just stick to the plan and hope this run turns around. Nothing more then hope at the moment.

Once again there wasn’t much to make me happy, it would have been another week with nothing but losses, but I started following NBL totals and Line bets, they returned $5,700 and $4,500 respectively. Already finding it difficult to have bets accepted at bookies and have had to bet less on a few winners. The current state of Australian bookmakers is abysmal. The highest I can bet to win at any one bookie is $1,000, and most wont even let me bet a cent. The NHL model also did well making $2,400. I thought I was finally going to have a winning NFL week but once again Denver scored 31 points in the 4th to beat the total line. I would say 75% of my loss is betting the under on Denver games. A $2,300 loss there. Tennis has also sucked at the end of the season, a further $1,900 lost this week. The golf is going through a very dry spell, another $750 gone for the week.

Onto Soccer and thank god there was no Skeeve this week. But TFA took up the slack and managed to loss another $19,800. It’s getting to be a joke, but I’ll stick to the model till the very end (of my bank). I missed a winning FB Elite bet this week but that makes up for the losing one I missed a few weeks ago, $1,200 lost this week but it should have been break even. Combo FI lost $1,200 to round of what has become a very common event over the last 3 months.

Pure luck has to kick in eventually and I will have to have a winning week, let’s hope it’s this week.

Total loss for the week was $14,376.16

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $997,523.00
Profit/Loss: $(43,770.82)
POT: -4.39%
Bets Placed: 1,627
Won: 568
Lost: 1024
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 34
Winning %: 35.7%
Total profit per day: $143,751.27 / 1217 = $118.11
Total Turnover: $10,747,352.53
Total ROI: 1.34%

ATP – SP $133,052.00 $7,942.31 6.0%
week profit/loss: -1926.70

FB Elite $23,000.00 $(5,070.00) -22.0%
week profit/loss: -1190

Skeeve $34,800.00 $(13,351.80) -38.4%
week profit/loss: 0

Combo FI $21,590.00 $(3,605.00) -16.7%
week profit/loss: -1175

TFA $204,071.00 $(52,225.50) -25.6%
week profit/loss: -19820

NFL Totals $44,109.00 $(15,050.41) -34.1%
week profit/loss: -2276.06

NP Win $9,123.00 $(4,530.00) -49.7%
week profit/loss: -750

NHL Totals $10,515.00 $2,464.44 23.4%
week profit/loss: 2464.44

NBL Totals $9,395.00 $5,728.43 61.0%
week profit/loss: 5728.43

NBL Line $6,836.00 $4,568.73 66.8%
week profit/loss: 4568.73

28. October 2013 by admin
Categories: update | Leave a comment

Midweek Soccer Carnage -$21,000 in 90 minutes

How do I even describe how I’m feeling right now. Depressed, angry, pissed. I decided to get up at 5:30am this morning as I had $32,000 worth of bets on the League 1 and 2 games and knew it was a pivotal moment for my betting career. I’m pretty sure I have never lost that much money in just 90 minutes and I’ve had some big nights in Vegas. TFA has destroyed my betting bank over the last 2 months and I have no one to blame but myself.

I had set aside $100k for TFA but the real bank is based off 75k, currently I am at -$50,800, so have 1/3rd of my bank left. This Saturdays games could very well end the season for me very early.

Can’t really describe how sick of Soccer betting I am, have never made a significant amount of money from it and am now in a major hole. I really wish I has just stuck to Sportpunter models and it looks like I will have to rebuild from scratch again with them.

I think i’ll curl up in a ball until Saturday and then watch what could be the end of my TFA career on Sunday morning.

22. October 2013 by admin
Categories: news | 10 comments

Oct 9th – Oct 22nd – $21,645.12

This is a 2 week review as the Internet on the ship was just to poor to bother, and the results did not make me want to write anything. A killer of a fortnight and I honestly have no faith in the Soccer models at all. Without AFL to prop up the losses, things have taken a massive downturn in the last few months. A $70,000 loss over the last 2 months is something I have never seen before and I know and you know how stupid I was for betting so heavily on Soccer. But do I compound the mistake by changing staking now? I think it’s a little late for that. The models are either going to hit their bank and I will need to stop, or they are going to turn around and break even. There are 1 or 2 that I should drop right now, but will kick myself more if they turn around. At the moment it just feels like every weekend I am handing money back to the bookies much quicker then I can ever make it.

Not one model made a profit in the past fortnight, so can’t start with any positive news, it is all bad. Tennis lost $250 last night, as I have now returned home and am able to place bets, I have saved around $6,000 over the last few weeks by not betting it. NFL lost $2,600 on the weekend and this model once again is picking nothing but unders and not doing well. Nics Picks has also continued his poor run and lost a further $1,600. It seems I also saved a heap on the NBL totals which I will be starting this weekend, but lost even more by not following the NHL totals which have started the year very well. If that was the end of it then it wouldn’t be so bad, but as always, we need to add in the soccer results.

FB Elite lost $550, Combo FI had a shocker and lost $4,150. Skeeve once again was even worse at tipping then a monkey flinging poo at a dartboard, but I managed to miss his multi’s this week as my Internet disconnected as I was trying to place them, I just wished it had happened earlier when I was placing the TFA bets as well. Skeeve lost $1,050, but that should be a $5,000 loss. I have been lucky to miss a few bets and my results are far better then the official results. My thoughts on TFA are inching closer and closer towards how I feel about the Skeeve service. The past few weeks the bets have not even been close to winning, which makes me very nervous, when you have over $3,000 on a team and they lose 4-0 or 4-1 and this is happening on the majority of bets you need to really think if the model is broken. We keep coming back to the fact that the home bets this season have gone crazy and this might just be pure variance, but it doesn’t feel right for some reason. With less then 2/3rds of the bank remaining, a change is required quickly or the model I had hoped would return me large sums will be on the waste pile. I realise that we saw the same pattern (just not as bad) last season, with Soccer going very poor until January and then in the space of a few months it made a massive comeback. But if it doesn’t perform during this period again, it will be a massive disaster. TFA lost $14,400 this fortnight.

Very happy to be home, but very worried about what’s in stall for my betting future.

Total loss for the week was $21,645.12

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $903,345.00
Profit/Loss: $(29,394.66)
POT: -3.25%
Bets Placed: 1,455
Won: 530
Lost: 906
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 18
Winning %: 36.9%
Total profit per day: $158,127.43 / 1210 = $130.68
Total Turnover: $10,653,174.53
Total ROI: 1.48%

ATP – SP $123,831.00 $9,869.01 8.0%
week profit/loss: -247.94

FB Elite $16,000.00 $(3,880.00) -24.3%
week profit/loss: -540

Skeeve $34,800.00 $(13,351.80) -38.4%
week profit/loss: -1050

Combo FI $16,590.00 $(2,430.00) -14.6%
week profit/loss: -4151.50

TFA $163,921.00 $(32,405.50) -19.7%
week profit/loss: -14,429.50

NFL Totals $38,798.00 $(12,774.35) -32.9%
week profit/loss: -2601.18

NP Win $8,373.00 $(3,780.00) -45.1%
week profit/loss: -1625

21. October 2013 by admin
Categories: update | Leave a comment

Sportpunter AFL 2012/13 Review

If you’re a regular reader of this Blog you know how much I love the AFL model. I have said it a million times, but it is the best model I have ever come across, by a massive margin. I guess a disclaimer is in order here as Jonno and I have been friends for many years. About 10 years ago I came across his site and let’s just say it was very basic, at the time I was working as a web designer and offered to update his site. We became friends and so this review can never be fully impartial. But I always try and be totally honest in my assessment of all the models I follow and I would have no hesitation in saying something is crap if I thought it was. I think in this case the numbers speak for themselves.

It’s impossible to compare my results to the ones on his site as I have used a moving bank this season. So I will list his official results and my own but you can’t really compare them. What you can see is the massive profit and ROI for the official results and my own.

As this is the best model, there are a number of very large bettors that follow it and this has caused some real issues over the last few seasons, but it has become a real issue this season. To get the same line bets you need to be at your computer the exact moment the predictions are released, as there is so much money following this model, the prices crash within minutes. The bookies also know about the model and every Friday at 11am they know they are going to have a rush of bets that will lose them a sizeable amount. This has made it easy for them to tag accounts and close or severely limit the places I can bet at. Next season is going to be very difficult to continue to get my bets on. Sadly there is also someone who uses a bot to take the Pinnacle price before anyone else has a chance and this makes Pinnacle pointless for everyone else. Hopefully Jonno can ban this practice next season and give everyone a fair chance. Even when I am ready to go at release, at times this season I have had to take a 1 or 2 point worse line and these have really cost me, I can remember at least 3 games this season that I lost by half a point but the official results won. The turnaround would be in the vicinity of $30,000.

This season I followed the new player based model for the H2H bets and Line bets. According to the official results, the H2H bets made 20% ROI and I made 21.85%. Again we really can’t compare as I used a moving bank. The Line bets officially made 19.6%, sadly my moving bank and the fact I was on the wrong side of a few bets made my ROI only 11.71%. In total I made $17,857.58 from the H2H bets and turned over a total of $81,712. I bet with a much lower Kelly for the Line bets and in total I bet $486,215 and made a profit of $56,983.93. So that’s a total profit of $74,841.51 with a turnover of $567,927 and a ROI of 13.178%. An amazing return and another great season.

Over the past 3 and a bit years I have made a total profit (all sports @ 8th Oct 2013) of $179,772.55 at a 1.70% ROI. AFL alone has made $148,758.92 at a ROI of 11.65%. The question I need to ask myself is if I’m wasting my time and money betting all these other sports. If I was to add the Sportpunter Tennis profit then everything else combined has actually made a loss. AFL takes 30-60 minutes a week to place all bets. I guess there will eventually be a losing year for AFL, so my hope is that these other models start performing and if the AFL does have a poor season that they will cover its losses.

Sadly with this amount of success comes problems and next season I can see some real difficulty in getting my ever increasing bets on. I will make sure I have plans in place to make sure I can not only get my bets on, but also make sure I am getting the best lines and prices available.

10. October 2013 by admin
Categories: Review | 5 comments

Onthepunt.com.au NRL Review

I’m a fan of the NRL, over the years I have enjoyed it less and less and now I prefer to watch an AFL game over an NRL game, but I still follow it and enjoy a good game. As with any sport, having a bet on the games can make them a little more exciting. I know that if I was to bet with my own opinion then I would lose a lot of money, I know this from many very expensive lessons and why I only follow proven models.

Normally I would follow the Sportpunter model, but I know Jonno has put very little time into this model and it has never performed well. Hopefully he dedicates some time to it this off season and creates a player based model like the AFL model and I can start making a fortune on it too. Until then, I have stuck with the onthepunt tipster. I have no real idea who produces the tips and if it is even the same guy each season, but the results are pretty good. I also am betting low amounts and in a good season I might win $10,000. This really is just me having some interest in the league.

As with any model I follow, I want to at least know that the results that are recorded are close to my own odds and results and with this tipster I can happily say that they are correct. The odds recorded are usually attainable. There was only 1 bet this season where the line moved 2 points and what was a win for the system was a loss for me. That was the main discrepancy in the results.

According to the website, and using 1 unit as $250 they bet $80,000 over the year and made $830 profit at a 1% ROI. Not a great season, but a profit nonetheless. My own results were a total bet of $77,888 and a loss of $144 at a ROI of 0%. A very close result.

I can say without hesitation that the results recorded are fair and the tipster (if it is the same guy over the last few years) knows his stuff. You might not make a fortune, but over the long run this looks to be a profitable system.

09. October 2013 by admin
Categories: Review | Leave a comment

Oct 2nd – Oct 8th +$11,867.72

Waking up on Sunday mornings are always a scary experience, and the last few months they have filled me with dread. Finally this week I had the sort of Sunday I was expecting. TFA started its comeback and Combo also delivered the goods.

We will start with the other sports first. As mentioned last week, I have stopped following Tennis until I return home in 2 weeks. I also missed the Golf this week which saved me about $500. I managed to get up early enough to place NFL this week and wish I hadn’t, a massive $4,200 loss with 0 from 3 and the totals were not even close to winning. Not sure this model is any good to be honest, and that’s rare to say about a Sportpunter model. The NRL finished this week and a $600 win to end the season. I think the season ended about even but will do a full review in the coming days along with an AFL review. Once I get home, the NHL and NBL totals will be waiting for me.

Onto Soccer and finally a winning week. The only loser once again was Skeeve and honestly, things do not look good. With TFA, I could see some results that were really close and knew it would eventually have a good week and things had the chance to turn around, I can’t say the same with Skeeve, this isn’t bad luck or close games, it seems to be poor analysis from Skeeve. As always I will see it through till the bank dies or the season ends, but I feel that my time with Skeeve is very limited. After 3 seasons and nothing to show for it, only a miracle turnaround will see me continuing. A small $1,000 loss this week, and now it’s fingers crossed for a quick turnaround. I missed an Elite winner and loser on the Friday games, but still made a tiny profit of $360 this week. It’s slowly showing signs of a comeback, but this is another system that really needs to perform this season. When Football Investor Combo performs, then TFA usually also performs as these systems are very similar. This week Combo made a great $4,000 profit from a small amount of bets, even better was TFA with a $12,200 profit, the games that lost were also very close and that result could easily have been +$20,000. TFA is still my worst performing Soccer model for gross loss, but that’s only because of the high turnover. Hopefully this coming week can replicate last week’s results and we get back to evens and look towards that $190,000 profit that the pre-season analysis showed.

Very happy to have a profitable week, had forgot what it felt like. Hopefully that $60,000 loss can be wiped away in the same timeframe it took to lose it and I can get back to making some profit. Only two weeks left until I’m home and looking forward to it.

Total profit for the week was $11,867.72

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $837,007.00
Profit/Loss: $(7,749.54)
POT: -0.93%
Bets Placed: 1,294
Won: 499
Lost: 778
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 17
Winning %: 39.1%
Total profit per day: $179,772.55 / 1196 = $150.31
Total Turnover: $10,586,836.53
Total ROI: 1.70%

ATP – SP $121,577.00 $10,116.95 8.3%
week profit/loss: 0

FB Elite $13,000.00 $(3,340.00) -25.7%
week profit/loss: 360

Skeeve $31,800.00 $(12,301.80) -38.7%
week profit/loss: -1056

Combo FI $9,000.00 $1,721.50 19.1%
week profit/loss: 3935

TFA $119,171.00 $(17,976.00) -15.1%
week profit/loss: 12,253

OTP NRL $32,388.00 $4,019.22 12.4%
week profit/loss: 599.72

NFL Totals $31,679.00 $(10,173.17) -32.1%
week profit/loss: -4224

NP Win $6,748.00 $(2,155.00) -31.9%
week profit/loss: 0

08. October 2013 by admin
Categories: update | 4 comments

Perspective

So with a loss of almost $60,000 over the last 31 days, and a lot of free spare time, I thought it would be a good idea to see how bad this current run is. On the year 4 graph which I started on July 1st 2013, you can see that I started my 4th year of betting poorly before a very nice climb up to a high of $40,000 profit, then the current $60,000 hit took place, and is still ongoing. This is the graph I see every day and looking at it each day only gives me a tiny snapshot of the entire 3 and a bit years I have been betting. But it has an overwhelming impact on how I see things going, which is really stupid. I have been betting for a total of 1189 days and the graph below shows just 92 days of that. That’s 7.7% of my betting life. Yet this graph feels like my entire betting career. Every year I start a new spreadsheet and therefore a new graph is created, but what I should be doing is importing all the old data into the new graph to see the real picture.

Year 4

So today, that is what I did. I grabbed every bet ever and using my rudimentary excel skills, managed to create a graph of my 1,189 days of betting. Now looking at this graph allows me to breathe a little steadier. That’s a fairly nice looking upward slope, sure there are long lean periods of it going nowhere, but on the whole it is heading upwards. The data from the year 4 graph above is the same data that is circled in red in the graph below. On this graph, it looks like a minor blimp and looks reminiscent of many other times throughout the years. If it reversed here and started heading back up, it would indeed just be another typical loss, and that is what I am hoping will happen, but I will need to keep an eye on it if it continues its downward path.

1189days

Looking at a small sample of data can be very dangerous and cause us to overreact, we just need to step back and see the entire set of data to make a more informed decision. These bigger spikes are bound to happen as I am betting with a larger bank then when I started 3 and a bit years ago, it is something I will need to get used to. It will always have an impact, as no one likes to lose $60,000 in a month, but by seeing that this isn’t out of the ordinary (yet), it allows me to continue on this journey towards $250,000 and then half a million and finally towards that $1,000,000 goal.

01. October 2013 by admin
Categories: news | 1 comment

Sep 25th – Oct 1st -$12,123.24

Cruise ship internet was invented to frustrate the life out of the most relaxed person in the world. Even though it has saved me from an even bigger loss this week, I wish I had just stopped betting the day I left on this 5 month trip. The internet on board this ship is charged at 75c a minute. The speed of the Internet is even more idiotic then the price. It takes 5 minutes just to log into my Pinnacle account, then another 5 to place each bet. As I can’t even have two pages loading at once, all my bets now have to be placed with the one sports-book which is costing me even more because of worse prices. My mistake for thinking that we now lived in a world with a bare minimum of dial up internet.

On the plus side it has saved me a $1,000 loss from OTP NRL, $1,000 from FB Elite and $1,800 from Skeeve, but has cost me $2,500 from the AFL model. I’ve decided to just bet the soccer for the duration of this cruise as Tennis is just too much work every day and the prices on Pinnacle are no longer anywhere near the best odds. The AFL season is over and the NRL season only has the Grand Final to go. If it’s possible I will try and place the Golf and NFL bets. NHL starts this week but I will wait until I get home before following the totals.

So another disaster week and I’m almost ready to throw all the Soccer models overboard. Elite lost $720 but should have been a loss of $1,720. I’m sick of complaining about Skeeve, but a monkey flinging poo at a dartboard would have a better win rate then him at the moment. Another $600 loss but that should have really been a loss of $2,400. So the figures at the end of the season will flatter him. Combo Football Investor had it’s first real week worth of bets and it joined in the Soccer carnage, losing $2,100 (should have been $2,600) and TFA, ahh TFA, there’s no two ways to put it, it sucks balls right now. With $100,000 worth of bets and a negative 30% ROI, things are not looking good, it will take months of fantastic results just to get back evens, if that happens at all. It is 1/3rd of the way to hitting its bank and right now in my mind it’s 50/50 to do that. It lost another $10,000 this week. Soccer in total is $47,388.30 down after only a few weeks into the season. OUCH.

ATP made $3,700, MLB made $1,350 in its last week of the season for me and NFL lost $3,400, Golf also lost $650.

What a run of terrible results. But I won’t be giving up just yet. Still another $168,000 to lose before I break even and declare the last 4 years a waste of time. The opportunity cost of the hours spent placing bets has been massive, but the risk/reward is still there. As I have copious amounts of internetless time on this ship, I managed to do some analysis to get some perspective on the last few weeks. Those results will follow in a separate post.

Onto next week and what will probably be another massive negative, but then again, things were going so well before the downturn, hopefully it recovers just as quickly.

Total loss for the week was $12,123.24

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $801,045.00
Profit/Loss: $(19,617.26)
POT: -2.45%
Bets Placed: 1,221
Won: 466
Lost: 739
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 16
Winning %: 38.7%
Total profit per day: $167,904.83 / 1189 = $141.21
Total Turnover: $10,550,874.53
Total ROI: 1.59%

ATP – SP $121,577.00 $10,116.95 8.3%
week profit/loss: 3764.24

FB Elite $11,000.00 $(3,700.00) -33.6%
week profit/loss: -720

Skeeve $27,000.00 $(11,245.80) -41.7%
week profit/loss: -600

Combo FI $4,000.00 $(2,213.50) -55.3%
week profit/loss: -2103.50

TFA $99,871.00 $(30,229.00) -30.2%
week profit/loss: -9,845.50

OTP NRL $31,750.00 $3,419.50 10.8%
week profit/loss: 0

MLB H2H $147,621.00 $(19,370.24) -13.1%
week profit/loss: 1775.04

MLB Totals $115,865.00 $(1,927.87) -1.7%
week profit/loss: -405.52

NFL Totals $27,455.00 $(5,949.17) -21.7%
week profit/loss: -3338

NP Win $6,748.00 $(2,155.00) -31.9%
week profit/loss: -650

01. October 2013 by admin
Categories: update | Leave a comment

← Older posts

Newer posts →