Are Betezy the next Sports Alive?

I saw the Sports Alive debacle unfolding well before they went under taking a lot of our money and did not voice my concerns. I was lucky to get a large chunk out before they went bust but still lost over $6,000. The sad story of how these Sportsbook operate and how they can get away with it is a post for another day but I just want to draw to your attention a new concern I have with another Australian Sportsbook.

Bear in mind this is just my opinion from my own experience and some stories I have heard from other bettors. Betezy & their many other skins (Dynabet and others) use TAB odds plus 1c better and usually take a good bet. It was actually one of my favorite sportsbooks for some time. It’s Australian owned, their marketing is fun at times and I had no complaints with them. Until the last couple of months, where they have taken a very long time to make payments, missed payments, don’t respond to emails, stolen bonus money and have changed their terms and retroactively applied them to users accounts.

I’m not as worried as I was with Sportsalive, but I don’t want another book to go down without any warnings. I hope I am wrong and probably am, but if you do have a large amount of your bank in there, it won’t hurt to withdraw and deposit just when you place bets.

If representatives from Betezy would like to reply to any of my emails regarding this matter I would be happy to post their comments on this site.

17. September 2013 by admin
Categories: news | 7 comments

Sep 11 – Sep 17th -$26,803.25

What a killer week. There were some positives, but mostly a terrible, horrible, disgusting week. My confidence was well up for the year until this week. Now it’s back to the same level it was when I started out, no real idea where the graph will go. Vegas has been good to me with over $4,000 profit from the BJ tables, but I would happily give that up to have this weeks loss reversed.

TFA really started this week with a heap of bets for Saturday and with 29 bets and 1 winner, let’s just say it was a terrible way to wake up. Another heap of bets midweek and another small loss with a few big bets getting close. A terrible start and some worrying signs odds wise. As I bet a fair chunk, I can never get on in one go and am not quick enough to beat the others, so I usually need to spread my bets out over the day and usually bet the majority just before the match. On today’s games I did quite well, with an average of only 2.4% worse odds, but the real telling factor were the winning games, these odds I got were 12.3% worse then recorded odds. I’m sure over the course of the season this will be the same case as the better bets will go down while the not so strong ones will stay around the same price or go out further. I’ll see how it goes for the season and next season I might just bet those games that have 10% or greater worse odds at the start of the game. A total loss of $13,000 this week.

I was ready to write Skeeve off on Friday night, another 2 losses and things were looking horrendous. But he came back on the weekend and made some profit, the first week and I’m hopeful this gives him some confidence and is a sign that things will get better and that we are not chasing our tails for most of the season once again. $3,700 made.

FB Elite had another loss, but whats new. Combo Football Investor started with 1 win for $400 profit. So Soccer is already down almost $20,000 in the first month and i’ll be chasing these losses again this year. If it can’t make a sizable profit this season then I will have to admit defeat with my favorite sport.

AFL finals have been terrible as well, this week there were only 2 bets and both lost by just a few points, $10,000 lost over the two bets. Tennis also lost $900 this week on very small turnover. MLB also added to the misery with $6,000 lost. Not sure what I will do next season with this model. The other American sport was also terrible with $3,800 lost on the NFL. OTP NRL made $100.

Onto the few positives. Skeeve as mentioned earlier had a profitable week, but the big positive was my first Golf win. I’m still at a loss since I started, but it was good to get one on the board and I’m excited about another early win to push me into a healthy profit, always much easier to bet with profits.

So that’s it for one of my worst ever weeks, not sure if it’s the worst ever but could be. The only upside is that if I can lose this much in a week then I can just as easily make it back. I just hope there are never two weeks in a row like this.

Back to the tables to try and claw back some of these losses.

Total loss for the week was $26,803.25

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $653,389.00
Profit/Loss: $7,513.06
POT: 1.15%

Bets Placed: 941
Won: 380
Lost: 548
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 13
Winning %: 40.9%

Total profit per day: $195,035.15 / 1175 = $165.98
Total Turnover: $10,403,218.53
Total ROI: 1.87%

AFL H2H – SP $23,915.00 $4,675.20 19.5%
week profit/loss: -330

AFL Line – SP $174,620.00 $33,893.64 19.4%
week profit/loss: -9580

ATP – SP $108,642.00 $4,254.84 3.9%
week profit/loss: -900.65

FB Elite $6,000.00 $(3,630.00) -60.5%
week profit/loss: -1000

Skeeve $21,600.00 $(5,845.80) -27.1%
week profit/loss: 3763.80

Combo FI $500.00 $390.00 78.0%
week profit/loss: 390

6-22 $1,050.00 $(1,050.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -700

7-21 $2,600.00 $(206.00) -7.9%
week profit/loss: -986

7-22 $350.00 $(350.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -350

8-21 $1,050.00 $(1,050.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -1050

8-22 $350.00 $(350.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -350

31-42 $4,250.00 $(1,856.00) -43.7%
week profit/loss: -2286

33-41 $1,300.00 $134.00 10.3%
week profit/loss: -700

33-42 $871.00 $(871.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -871

TOX $5,650.00 $(1,436.00) -25.4%
week profit/loss: -1866

STOY $5,650.00 $(1,453.50) -25.7%
week profit/loss: -1883.50

STOZ $7,650.00 $(1,224.50) -16.0%
week profit/loss: -1654.50

D3-D6 $350.00 $(350.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -350

D3-D7 $- $-
week profit/loss:

OTP NRL $30,000.00 $5,169.50 17.2%
week profit/loss: 120

MLB H2H $134,069.00 $(15,856.42) -11.8%
week profit/loss: -3297.97

MLB Totals $98,479.00 $(1,642.91) -1.7%
week profit/loss: -2728.12

NFL Totals $16,695.00 $(2,920.99) -17.5%
week profit/loss: -3841.31

NP Win $5,173.00 $(580.00) -11.2%
week profit/loss: 3798

NP Place $1,975.00 $269.00 13.6%
week profit/loss: -150

NP trades $600.00 $(600.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

17. September 2013 by admin
Categories: update | 2 comments

Sep 4th – Sep 10th -$3,503.91

The run of profitable weeks has ended at 5. It also coincides with the first losing AFL week in ages. My hope is that if one model doesn’t perform then another will pick up the slack, but at the moment I don’t have many reliable ones. A really scary time for the portfolio as we are now heading into a heavily skewed period towards soccer betting, something that has not proven itself yet. I also welcomed back the NFL totals model and was even present at the Dallas Cowboys game for the first round. I’ve been lucky enough to catch an MLB and NFL game on this trip, wish I was staying a month longer to complete the set and see an NHL and NBA game, but i’ll just have to come back on another holiday for those. Such a tough life at times.

My view of the Cowboys game

My view of the Cowboys game

Will be a quick review as I need some sleep before my flight to Vegas. As mentioned earlier, AFL had a losing week with a $1,500 loss. ATP lost $1,000 thanks again to the incredible run Nadal has been on. I know the model is not coming up with the right bets against him, but I’m not here to judge something that has made me such consistent profit. OTP NRL had a poor week losing $1,000 and Nics picks is yet to find a winner for me and lost a further $400 this week. MLB had a steady week with $2,000 profit.

My other nosebleed section view

My other nosebleed section view

Onto Skeeve and I’m seriously getting worried now. A massive loss of $5,400 this week and I find myself in a giant hole after just a few weeks. This feels worse then last years start and the emails that are sent out do him no favors as instead of just stating the obvious, he finds a number of excuses. The fact is he doesn’t have a grasp of the league at the moment and it is costing members. He is moving to lower stakes from this week but it’s a few weeks too late. I keep saying that things will turn around, but I’m starting to ask myself if they really will. It’s no good repeating last years results and breaking even, I need soccer models that produce profit.

TFA started this week with a few bets and a profit of $3,000. The big bet went against skeeve’s pick and won easily (4-1). One point for Graeme’s modelling skills and our computer overlords. Getting odds was an issue but won’t worry yet as there was only a bet on 3 teams for me and with 100 members betting on these matches, the odds were bound to come in, add in my ever diminishing list of bookies and I was lucky to get close.

So that’s the first loss in a while and I’m hoping it’s a blip on the radar and things go back to normal in the coming months, would love to arrive back home in OZ with over $60,000 profit. Only Soccer can get me there, so hoping that my visit to Vegas can ignite my luck in regards to Soccer. Will once again be a roller coaster ride. But that’s why you love reading this blog, well that, and you also want to see me fail.

Side note: Rick Nielsen of Cheap Trick stopped me in Dallas today to compliment me on having such a hot girlfriend and then asked me how he would get one before talking about his daughters and giving me a huge hug. Very strange.

Total loss for the week was $3,503.91

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $572,399.00
Profit/Loss: $34,316.31
POT: 6.00%

Bets Placed: 803
Won: 343
Lost: 447
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 13
Winning %: 43.4%

Total profit per day: $221,838.40 / 1168 = $189.93
Total Turnover: $10,322,228.53
Total ROI: 2.15%

AFL H2H – SP $23,585.00 $5,005.20 21.2%
week profit/loss: 470.25

AFL Line – SP $165,040.00 $43,473.64 26.3%
week profit/loss: -1986.08

ATP – SP $106,645.00 $5,155.49 4.8%
week profit/loss: -967.55

FB Elite $5,000.00 $(2,630.00) -52.6%
week profit/loss: 0

Skeeve $14,400.00 $(9,609.60) -66.7%
week profit/loss: -5400

6-22 $350.00 $(350.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -350

7-21 $600.00 $780.00 130.0%
week profit/loss: 780

31-42 $950.00 $430.00 45.3%
week profit/loss: 430

33-41 $600.00 $834.00 139.0%
week profit/loss: 834

TOX $950.00 $430.00 45.3%
week profit/loss: 430

STOY $950.00 $430.00 45.3%
week profit/loss: 430

STOZ $950.00 $430.00 45.3%
week profit/loss: 430

OTP NRL $28,250.00 $5,049.50 17.9%
week profit/loss: -1060

MLB H2H $121,274.00 $(12,558.45) -10.4%
week profit/loss: 1026.33

MLB Totals $86,553.00 $1,085.21 1.3%
week profit/loss: 933.82

NFL Totals $9,499.00 $920.32 9.7%
week profit/loss: 920.32

NP Win $4,378.00 $(4,378.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -425

NP Place $1,825.00 $419.00 23.0%
week profit/loss: 0

NP trades $600.00 $(600.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

09. September 2013 by admin
Categories: update | 3 comments

August 2013 Review +$47,093.36

WOW, a brilliant month and all the credit goes to AFL. In last months review, I said that August would be another slow month, I hope they are all slow months if that’s the case.

In terms of turnover it was slow, with just $281,638.00 bet, but what wasn’t slow was my graphs upward climb with a monthly profit of $47,093.36, that’s a killer ROI of 16.72%.

Let’s start with the standout. AFL returned 44.8% for line bets this month. That’s just incredible and unheard of. $42,568.34 profit with a total of $95,115.00 bet. H2H also made an amazing 27.1% ROI but on much lower turnover. Never seen a month like it, but hope to see plenty more in the coming seasons.

ATP performed adequately. A small profit of $2,982.00 with a ROI of 5.4%. Might not look like much, but the dream this year is to achieve a total ROI of close to 5%. Hope that the Tennis model keeps plugging away and returning those figures.

Soccer still too early in the season and too few bets to draw any conclusions yet, but with a -52.6% and -46.8% return for both FB Elite and Skeeve let’s just say it’s not the start I was hoping for. NRL performed great with a 12.9% ROI and $1,902.50. I will look to up stakes next season. Golf is still yet to find a winner and went -100% with a turnover and loss of $3,028.

Finally we have MLB and a great totals profit (which should have been even better) of 20.9% ROI and $6,831.79. H2H lost $(938.82) which was a negative ROI of 1.8%. Really worried for the future of H2H bets and hoping they can make some profit in the next month.

Really living the dream at the moment, travelling the world and making some great profit. Long may it continue.

ATP – SP $55,655.00 $2,982.00 5.4%
AFL H2H – SP $13,343.00 $3,615.15 27.1%
AFL Line – SP $95,115.00 $42,568.34 44.8%
FB Elite $5,000.00 $(2,630.00) -52.6%
Skeeve $9,000.00 $(4,209.60) -46.8%
OTP NRL $14,750.00 $1,902.50 12.9%
MLB H2H $52,981.00 $(938.82) -1.8%
MLB Totals $32,766.00 $6,831.79 20.9%
NP Win $2,228.00 $(2,228.00) -100.0%
NP Place $200.00 $(200.00) -100.0%
NP trades $600.00 $(600.00) -100.0%

03. September 2013 by admin
Categories: Monthly | Leave a comment

Aug 28th – Sep 3rd +$16,747.87

What more can I say about the AFL model. Nothing. It’s brilliant. Sadly the regular season is over and I only have the finals to look forward to. I just wish it was a year long competition. We move into the Soccer season and things have not started as I had hoped, but the one model I see as being the best soccer model has yet to start, so I still hold out hope that some profit can be made from Soccer this season.

So AFL added a further $18,000 profit to its total profit this week, the best return of the year. I’ve talked enough about this model over the last few weeks, but there is no better model in the world.

Tennis continues it’s mini comeback with another $4,300 profit, identical to last week. OTP NRL has really kicked into gear as well and another $1,600 profit was made this week. I might look to up stakes and use a moving bank next season. Golf lost another $900 this week and I’m still waiting for that first win, hoping it comes sooner rather then later. Odds have been more difficult to get these last few weeks, but have managed to get same or better for this weeks upcoming tournament.

FB Elite went 0 from 2 and lost another $2,000 and Skeeve made his first profit of the year, a shame it was only $600. With the increased stakes of $600 a point, I am finding it difficult to get bets on and accounts are getting limited on other sports because I am betting such large amounts on a lower league. Getting really difficult at the moment and once I get back home I’ll have to figure something out.

MLB H2H had a horrendous week, probably the worst ever with a loss of $9,400, the totals helped a little with a profit of $4,600, but this is another model that can be very frustrating. Will plug away till seasons end and then see where I go with it.

I think the profit this week is hiding some real issues. Take away AFL over the last month and I would be in a lot of trouble, with it ending, I need something to step up and I don’t see anything doing that at the moment. Hopefully I am wrong and everything starts adding profit and I can reach the $250,000 mark in the next month. A mighty figure and 1/4 of the way to the really big figure.

Have loved this run over the past month and look forward to many more like it.

Total profit for the week was $16,747.87

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $506,716.00
Profit/Loss: $37,820.22
POT: 7.46%

Bets Placed: 713
Won: 303
Lost: 399
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 11
Winning %: 43.2%

Total profit per day: $225,342.31 / 1161 = $194.09
Total Turnover: $10,256,545.53
Total ROI: 2.20%

AFL H2H – SP $22,760.00 $4,534.95 19.9%
week profit/loss: 1764

AFL Line – SP $156,284.00 $45,459.72 29.1%
week profit/loss: 16097.50

ATP – SP $103,976.00 $6,123.04 5.9%
week profit/loss: 4349.87

FB Elite $5,000.00 $(2,630.00) -52.6%
week profit/loss: -2000

Skeeve $9,000.00 $(4,209.60) -46.8%
week profit/loss: 590.40

OTP NRL $25,750.00 $6,109.50 23.7%
week profit/loss: 1602.50

MLB H2H $108,976.00 $(13,584.78) -12.5%
week profit/loss: -9398.68

MLB Totals $68,592.00 $151.39 0.2%
week profit/loss: 4642.28

NP Win $3,953.00 $(3,953.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -700

NP Place $1,825.00 $419.00 23.0%
week profit/loss: -200

NP trades $600.00 $(600.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

02. September 2013 by admin
Categories: update | 4 comments

Aug 21st – Aug 27th +$17,612.48

The 4th week of profit in a row and what a profit, for such low turnover this was an amazing week and it came within 3 points in an AFL game of being $7,000 better. The only disappointment was Soccer with 4 from 4 bets losing. Both models that went terrible last year have started the same way this year. But the positives far outweighed the negatives this week.

For the 3rd year in a row I am in the states while the US Open is on and Tennis turned around this week, making $4,400. With a few early wins in round 1, I’m hoping for the same results from the US Open that happened 2 years ago. OTP NRL made a small profit of $320 and the Golf picks are still yet to hit a winner and lost a further $825 this week, I mentioned that I was able to beat the Winner market prices, but in the last two weeks this hasn’t been the case, this might be another case of the odds not being achievable and therefore not worthwhile. Once I get back to OZ I will try and open a few UK books and see if I can get anywhere near the odds.

Onto Soccer and Skeeve has started the year terribly, 4 from 4 losses and a further $3,600 lost, I’m kicking myself for upping stakes, but to be honest, because of the price of the service and the return I expect, betting anything less would not be worth it in my opinion. I know it’s early days and have seen Skeeve turn these bad runs around really quickly. But he did pay out some other tipster before he started this season and has done much worse then him. I like the confidence, but would much prefer the profit. I know Skeeve reads this blog, so I like to make him squirm every now and then. haha, I’m hoping I will be heaping praise on you in the coming weeks and months mate. FB Elite had 1 loss for -$1,000.

It seems I’m bashing tipsters today, but onto CRDOG and the Sportpunter MLB model. After a horrendous run where I lost about $17,000 in 2 weeks, I asked CRDOG if there was a problem with the model, and was told that his team don’t bet totals at all during the Aug/Sep period and greatly reduce stakes for H2H bets, as mentioned in an earlier post, I was pretty pissed that subscribers were not told this earlier. I asked for some stats and was told that he didn’t have any but they felt that they never made a profit during this period, Jonno the ever helpful owner of Sportpunter did some analysis for me and showed that a healthy profit was made during that period, but I decided to follow H2H and leave totals alone, we all know what happens then, Totals went on to make a profit of over $8,000 while I was not following it, which would have covered the loss that I made. This week I decided to start following it again and made $5,000 profit which is a great start and H2H also made $2,100. A great MLB week.

Now onto some Tipster loving, and it’s going out to Jonno. Only 1 week of AFL action left before the finals and the model is making as much as possible from it. Another $11,000 profit this week and for once the big bet on St Kilda wasn’t in doubt. My choice of a moving bank has been a genius move as the analysis suggested the player based model really came into its own near the end of the season when players were more likely to be injured and teams with no chance of making the finals resting players. The only downer was Melbourne losing the line with a few minutes left when they looked like they had the line covered easily the whole game, I guess we can’t win them all, but what a week it will be when that happens. I had a look at AFL over the past 3 season and in total it has returned $112,000, more the half my total profit. The best model on the internet by far, but don’t follow it as I don’t want to have to fight with any more subscribers to get my bets on.

A great week that once again pushed my total profit over the $200,000 mark. Here’s hoping that it never dips below that level again. I’m actually staying on a boat for my week in Miami and the ups and downs on this thing are much like my betting career (alright, that was a terrible analogy, i just wanted to make you all jealous).

On a final note, a big congrats to Stephen Maher of the great Gambler falls blog on completing his €100 To €100,000 challenge. Stephen actually uses some semblance of skill and traded his way to that profit, a much more impressive feat then me following a rag tag bunch of tipsters. Doubt you read the blog but well done anyway.

Total profit for the week was $17,612.48

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $424,033.00
Profit/Loss: $21,072.35
POT: 4.97%

Bets Placed: 604
Won: 252
Lost: 344
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 8
Winning %: 42.3%

Total profit per day: $208,594.44 / 1154 = $180.75
Total Turnover: $10,173,862.53
Total ROI: 2.05%

AFL H2H – SP $19,505.00 $2,770.95 14.2%
week profit/loss: 1444.85

AFL Line – SP $132,084.00 $29,362.22 22.2%
week profit/loss: 9716.54

ATP – SP $88,153.00 $1,773.17 2.0%
week profit/loss: 4391.89

FB Elite $3,000.00 $(630.00) -21.0%
week profit/loss: -1000

Skeeve $4,800.00 $(4,800.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -3600

OTP NRL $24,000.00 $4,507.00 18.8%
week profit/loss: 320

MLB H2H $93,448.00 $(4,186.10) -4.5%
week profit/loss: 2091.54

MLB Totals $53,565.00 $(4,490.89) -8.4%
week profit/loss: 5072.66

NP Win $3,253.00 $(3,253.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -825

NP Place $1,625.00 $619.00 38.1%
week profit/loss: 0

NP trades $600.00 $(600.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

27. August 2013 by admin
Categories: update | 3 comments

Aug 14th – Aug 20th +$5,870.71

A third steady week of profit brings the 4th season into the black. A bit has been given back in the last few days, but still very happy to see some profit early in the season. I guess if you whinge a lot like I did last week then you get what you want, you poms have been onto something for a very long time.

All the profit was once again made with the AFL model, a total of $9,300 profit for the week. Disappointed that the season has only 2 more rounds left before the finals. 6 more bets against Nadal this week and 6 more losses, a few other results went my way but Tennis lost another $1,000 this week. Jonno at Sportpunter is going to do some analysis on betting against the top 4, I’m hoping it shows a long term profit, but the model has real trouble with players coming back from injury or going on a good run.

FB Elites second bet of the season was a winner with $1,300 profit, but the first Skeeve bet of the season lost and that’s $1,200 down the drain. OTP NRL had a poor week with $1,100 lost and add another $900 loss for the Golf and add $700 for the MLB to the losses column.

Off to New York tomorrow and will be seeing a Mets game and some of the US Open qualifying games. Might also try and fit in an NFL game and a bit of other sport while I’m in the states. Hoping for a stellar week to get the profit into 5 figure and then onto 6 by the time I’m back in Australia.

Total profit for the week was $5,870.71

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $347,907.00
Profit/Loss: $3,459.87
POT: 0.99%

Bets Placed: 502
Won: 201
Lost: 294
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 7
Winning %: 40.6%

Total profit per day: $190,981.96 / 1147 = $166.50
Total Turnover: $10,097,736.53
Total ROI: 1.89%

AFL H2H – SP $15,687.00 $1,326.10 8.5%
week profit/loss: 767.20

AFL Line – SP $107,037.00 $19,645.68 18.4%
week profit/loss: 8544.55

ATP – SP $80,894.00 $(2,618.72) -3.2%
week profit/loss: -983.64

FB Elite $2,000.00 $370.00 18.5%
week profit/loss: 1370

Skeeve $1,200.00 $(1,200.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -1200

OTP NRL $20,500.00 $4,187.00 20.4%
week profit/loss: -1067.50

MLB H2H $83,199.00 $(6,277.64) -7.5%
week profit/loss: -659.90

MLB Totals $32,737.00 $(9,563.55) -29.2%
week profit/loss: 0

NP Win $2,428.00 $(2,428.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -300

NP trades $600.00 $(600.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -600

20. August 2013 by admin
Categories: update | 2 comments

Aug 7th – Aug 13th +$4,551.10

Another profitable but very frustrating week. Was so close to breaking even many times this week and I just want to move into profit and start making some money early in the year instead of treading water like all of last year before one or two great months. It’s stupid but I would rather start well and take $100,000 profit for the year then lose all year until the final month and make $200,000. Lucky I have no real say in these results after I select my bank sizes so my stupidity can’t get in the way of the profit.

Another low turnover week but this week included the first Soccer bet of the season. A FB Elite bet that continued on from last years form with a $1,000 loss. Tennis also has been on a massive slide lately, all this week we were against Nadal for large stakes and in the early rounds it looked like it might pay off, but he won the tournament and cost me $2,400. The only other losses this week were from AFL H2H bets ($1,200) and Nics Picks Golf ($553), but I was agonisingly close to a great start with a 2nd and 4th place. Shame I stopped following places.

AFL line bets had my heart in my mouth this week with St Kilda finally beating a line, they have been so close to beating lines this season and the model seems to love them but they just keep losing by a point or two. This week the Line bets made $4,800. OTP NRL is going great guns and made another $1,700 this week and MLB H2H had a great night last night to end the week $3,000 in front, I need an even bigger turnaround for MLB in the coming months.

One more week in London before flying 1st class to New York (gotto love those frequent flyer points). This time next week, lets hope I have wiped that last $2,400 loss from the total and am well on my way to that $200,000 mark.

Total profit for the week was $4,551.10

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $295,134.00
Profit/Loss: -$(2,410.84)
POT: -0.82%

Bets Placed: 431
Won: 172
Lost: 252
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 7
Winning %: 40.6%

Total profit per day: $185,111.25 / 1140 = $162.37
Total Turnover: $10,044,963.53
Total ROI: 1.84%

AFL H2H – SP $13,080.00 $558.90 4.3%
week profit/loss: -1198

AFL Line – SP $92,077.00 $11,101.13 12.1%
week profit/loss: 4867.85

ATP – SP $64,331.00 $(1,635.08) -2.5%
week profit/loss: -2377.03

FB Elite $1,000.00 $(1,000.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -1000

OTP NRL $18,000.00 $5,254.50 29.2%
week profit/loss: 1767.50

MLB H2H $70,156.00 $(5,617.74) -8.0%
week profit/loss: 3043.78

MLB Totals $32,737.00 $(9,563.55) -29.2%
week profit/loss: 0

NP Win $2,128.00 $(2,128.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -553

13. August 2013 by admin
Categories: update | 4 comments

2013/14 Soccer season notes

Only a few weeks away from the first Soccer season bets and my second full year of soccer in my portfolio. Last season was not the start I had hoped for. I turned over $1.74 million and made only $17,878, after adding in subscription costs this was less then a 1% ROI. Very disappointing. The only change I have made is to drop one service and that one broke even last season. There are also numerous tweaks to the other systems I am following.

This season I am following The Football Analyst (TFA), Skeeve, Football Elite (FE) and Football Investor (FI). Two of these systems made a loss last season and I am hoping for a big turnaround. Let’s look at each model and the amount I will be betting this season.

TFA

Last season I followed 5 established combined systems and 5 Euro combined systems. $587,000 was bet and a profit of $35,500 was achieved. This season the Euro bets are gone. Graeme has no confidence in them and that means that I don’t either.

My new portfolio is all English based. 6-22,7-21,7-22,8-21,8-22,31-42,33-41,33-42,TOX,STOY,STOZ,D3-D6,D3-D7. 13 separate systems. Home bets will be $600 and away and draw bets will be $350. We are looking at an average of 563 Home bets, 1067 away bets and 130 draw bets. In total I will be betting just over $750,000, a 30% increase over last season. The average over the past 7 years says this unique portfolio should return 25.8% ROI with the worst season returning 11.4%. I am aiming for 10% and that equates to a profit of $75,000. The average return will see me streaking down the main street in my town and a profit of $193,500.

Issues: This is heavily concentrated on UK soccer. I wish the euro systems were as good as the UK ones as I would love to diversify. A bad season could see my entire bank wiped out. The other big issue is overlapping bets. I had Graeme do some analysis and there will be at least 60-70 home bets on all 11 systems. This means on lower league games I will need to be betting $6,000. I am not sure if that is even possible.

Football Elite

After last seasons disaster I am halving my bets to $1,000. As Matt is doubling his bets to around 200 a season this will mean turnover will be the same, but should fix the variance issue. Looking to turnover around $200,000 for the season and half the official ROI of 14.2% would make me happy. $14,000 is the goal, anything over $20,000 would be seen as a great year.

Skeeve
No changes this year. $400 per point. This is pretty much the upper limit of what can be matched on these non league games without having to resort to poorer odds. The average number of picks per season is around 115 and turnover will be close to $150,000. The official ROI is 13%, so will be happy with 6.5% and a profit of $10,000.

Football Investor
I will be continuing with Combo bets this season. $500 per bet and with 500 bets over the season turnover will be $250,000. A 5% ROI is the goal here so a profit of $12,500. I will also be betting a new FI model which will see another $150,000 turned over and looking for 8% ROI on these. That will add a further $12,000. I might also add the Euro bets in but am undecided.

So we are looking at a reduction in the total amount bet to $1,500,000 this season. As I will be betting around $4,000,000 over the season, Soccer will account for 37.5% of total bets. There will be around 2850 bets over the season. The minimum goal is 5% and if past results are anything to go by then that should be easily attainable. The portfolio is very heavily weighted towards the two models that made a profit last season and even more so towards TFA. I am a little worried as TFA and FI do throw up a number of similar bets and if they perform poorly then I will be losing a fair bit this season. If they perform to expectation then I will be a very happy punter.

So with a 5% ROI I am looking for $75,000 profit for the season. A 10% ROI will see $150,000 profit and if they all hit their average official ROI then we would be looking at $286,000. But to be honest, hitting the 5% mark is what I am really aiming for and if Soccer can’t make a good profit this season then I will need to take a hard look at it for year 5.

08. August 2013 by admin
Categories: news, Review | Leave a comment

Football Elite 2012/13 Review

Finally for the worst performer of the year by far. O my god how terrible it was. Every weekend I tossed up whether to just burn the money instead. In my 3 years of betting I have never seen something go so terribly wrong. I think there was one amazing weekend out of the entire season. I’m not sure how many emails Matt would have received over the year, but my guess would be many, and all of them probably filled with profanities which would even make me wince. I did feel for him at times, but then looked at how much money I had lost and that empathy quickly eroded.

Let’s look at my foolish thoughts at the start of the season.

FB Elite is the first Soccer model I joined. It has been around for ages and even though the last few years have not matched the first few, it is still an amazing service. I’m hoping to make between 10-30 points profit this year with a betsize of $2,000. So between $20 – $60,000. All bets are in the big leagues and this year he is betting using mostly Asian handicaps to smooth out the varience. Easy to get bets on even though I bet them much later in the day.

Bahaha, how deluded I was. Football Elite has been around for 7 years and in that time has made a 14.2% ROI over 1,521 bets. My major concern at the beginning of last season and even more so now is that most of that profit was made very early on and the last 3 years have only resulted in a profit of 6.85 points. The question that needs to be seriously considered is if Matt’s edge is gone.

The subscription cost £179.99($280) and I bet $298,819 over the season for a massive loss of $29,878.97 which is a negative ROI of 10%.

The official results for last season were:
Football Elite Offical Results
151 -11.5 -9.7%

Official results ($2000 per bet)
$302,000.00 -$23,000.00 -9.7%

My Results
$298,819.00 -$29,878.97 -10.0%

There is actually a discrepancy of $6,800 which is 3.4 points. I’m not sure where that came from. It looks like I missed 1 bet and that may have won. But as you can see, the official results are pretty close to my results. The odds Matt records at are fair, and throughout the season by waiting until just before kickoff, I was usually able to get much better odds, maybe this was because the tips were terrible, but at least you can be assured that his official results are fair and accurate.

I do feel bad about being so harsh to Matt and the Football Elite system but it was a shocker of a year and it was compounded by my stupidity of betting so much per match. I should have at most been betting half of what I did and the final figure would not have stung as much. So lesson learnt on my behalf. I have spoken to Matt over email and he knows it was a bad season but is confident it was just a bump in his very long plan for football elite. I really hope in 10 years we are laughing about this past season.

So the question your asking is “Why in gods name are you following again?” and that’s a very good question. The first thing that comes to mind is nostalgia. It was the first soccer model I followed. That is probably the worst reason ever, so I’ll try another. I like the way Matt sticks to a system and I am hoping that the system is a profitable one and the last few years are just variance. So hope and nostalgia. haha. I really am going against my analytic brain on this one. I know it’s a risk and I’ve always taken risks with this portfolio.

We will just have to wait and see on this one.

07. August 2013 by admin
Categories: Review | Leave a comment

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