July 31st – Aug 6th +$4,487.89

It’s taken 3 years and 37 days and I have now turned over $10,000,000. That’s an average of $8,832 bet per day. This year I hope to turnover $5,000,000 and in the next 3-5 years would look to be turning over $10 mil a year with a 2-5% ROI. It’s amazing to see such big numbers, just wish the returns were as big.

A very low turnover week this week. At least some profit was made. AFL made just over $4,000, MLB H2H finally made a gain with $1,200 profit and we had a second place and a fourth in the Golf which resulted in $1,369 profit for Nics place bets. Sadly everything else lost. That includes another poor tennis week and $800 lost, NRL losing $700 and the Golf win bets losing $800.

Thanks to some advice, I have decided to only follow the win bets on Nics picks from now on. I can usually get the same or better odds for these but 30% worse for the place bets. It cuts my expected profit in half and the variance is going to be nuts, but it saves me a lot more time and will result in a lot less stress and being pissed at always getting poor odds.

Just one more season review to go before I decide on the 2013/14 soccer season banks. I’m looking to turnover around $1.5 to $2 million this season. Hoping for a return of 5% and a profit between $75,000 and $100,000. Will explain in more detail in the coming days.

Total profit for the week was $4,487.89

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $257,263.00
Profit/Loss: -$(6,961.94)
POT: -2.71%

Bets Placed: 380
Won: 154
Lost: 221
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 5
Winning %: 41.1%

Total profit per day: $180,560.15 / 1133 = $159.36
Total Turnover: $10,007,092.53
Total ROI: 1.80%

AFL H2H – SP $11,882.00 $1,756.90 14.8%
week profit/loss: 837.10

AFL Line – SP $76,489.00 $6,233.28 8.1%
week profit/loss: 3341.90

ATP – SP $56,330.00 $741.95 1.3%
week profit/loss: -790.19

OTP NRL $13,750.00 $3,487.00 25.4%
week profit/loss: -720

MLB H2H $62,875.00 $(8,661.52) -13.8%
week profit/loss: 1275.08

MLB Totals $32,737.00 $(9,563.55) -29.2%
week profit/loss: 0

NP Win $1,575.00 $(1,575.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -825

NP Place $1,625.00 $619.00 38.1%
week profit/loss: 1369

06. August 2013 by admin
Categories: update | Leave a comment

Skeeve 2012/13 Review

Skeeve has been around for 7 years and you don’t stick around that long without being good at what you do. He has a niche area that he feels gives him an edge over the bookmakers. His picks are all non-league bets. As this is a low liquidity league and the fact that Skeeve has a large following after many season of profit means the prices crash as soon as his tips are released. Skeeve records fair odds by taking the best price from a number of better bookmakers 15 minutes after he has sends his email. In my mind, this is an extremely fair way to record odds.

As always, let’s start by seeing what I wrote at the start of the season

Skeeve is another great service and knows the Blue Sq league better then anyone. I do have issues with the service, but they are because of my own situation and no reflection on his service. Being a lower league and me betting $400 per point, I find it very difficult to get my bets matched at the quoted odds, I have tried it all, getting up at 3am to place the bets as soon as they come out, waiting till 10minutes before the game, and many other options. I usually get close to but rarely better then the odds quoted. Luckily his ROI is so good that I should still make a healthy profit each year. Im hoping for about 50 points profit this season at $400 per point. So $20,000.

This was my second year following his service and I have made a grand total of $0 after two seasons. Staking in the first season was much smaller then it was last season. So I am still yet to be a convert of Skeeve. I believe he knows his niche very well and is great at seeing value, but I have yet to profit from that. Skeeve is also the most expensive tipster I follow by far. I paid €799($1,059) for the service last season.

This year was a real struggle, at no stage was I ever in profit and for the first half of the season it was loss after loss and I was well into negative territory and at one stage was very close to losing my entire bank. I’m not sure a lot of casual gamblers would have stuck it out. Luckily for both Skeeve and myself, his second half of the season was great and he clawed back almost all of his losses to end the season only a little down.

His “official” results say he made a 0.5% ROI, but even with his fair recording of odds, my results are a little different. I would explain this by saying that the multi’s which produced the only real profit were very hard to get on at a decent price. Even Pinnacle limited the amount I could bet to $130. I would then have to keep betting with worse odds until my $2,000 was matched. A real hassle and this also resulted in worse odds. The real result was a negative ROI of 1.2%. The “official” profit was 1.95 points ($780 to $400 per point), and my results were a loss of $1,833.64. Not a huge difference. Add in the cost of subscription and I ended up losing $2,892 in total. A very disappointing year and I’m not sure how much longer I can follow if I continue to get poor returns.

This one is really still up in the air for me. I’m hoping that this new season rewards me for my persistence and shows me why Skeeve has a big following. For the price, I can’t really recommend it unless you have been around for a while and have a decent size bank.

Official Skeeve results
staked returned ROI
382 383.95 0.5%

Offical results using $400 per point
$152,800 $780 0.5%

My Results
$148,919.00 $(1,833.64) -1.2%

My Results broken down
1X2 $9,144.00 $212.00 2.3%
AH $73,010.00 $(3,637.64) -5.0%
Multi $66,765.00 $1,592.00 2.4%

05. August 2013 by admin
Categories: Review | 4 comments

July 2013 Review -$10,856.68

Not the greatest start to Year 4. The June to August period is a very quiet time betting wise. Not much is on and therefor turnover is reduced. This month saw what will be the lowest amount bet for the year at $216,489. The loss was $10,856.68 which was a negative ROI of 5.01%.

There was one sport that was the culprit this month and that was MLB. It had a horror start and after talking to the owner of the model he told me his team bet much smaller in this period and even less on the totals. This was information that would have been welcomed without me having to ask why it was going so poorly. In retrospect I wish I had said nothing and kept betting, as I decided on CRDOG’s advice to stop following totals and still bet H2H. The H2H bets have made a small loss since then but if I had been following the totals, they would have recouped the almost $10,000 first week loss. Really pissed at not being told this information beforehand and the fact that MLB has given back all its profit and then some in this short period of time, and the fact I could have done something about it really gets my goat. So between H2H and Totals the month saw a loss of $18,469 on MLB.

This month I started following Nic’s Picks and have already decided to make a major change. I will stop backing Place bets and just place the Win bets now. The variance and losing runs are going to be huge, but I can get the same or better odds for Win bets, but usually 30% worse for place bets. A simple decision really.

Everything else made a bit of profit. You can see the exact figures below.

Just one extra note. I’m always amazed at how my brain works or doesn’t in this case. Last week after a really long day of travelling I left my sunglasses in the backseat of a taxi. That same day I lost about $7,000 on AFL. I was way more upset over the loss of the glasses then the $7,000, I guess this is a good thing, but I could have bought 35 pairs of the same glasses with that money, or hired someone famous to go and buy them for me, wear them for a day and then deliver them personally to me. They were my favorite glasses and had been with me for the past 5 years, but I had an almost identical backup pair in my backpack (different colour). Still amazes me how the brain applies value to things.

August should be another slow month, before everything goes nuts with Soccer starting again. No idea how I am going to be able to place all these bets while travelling, going to be very complicated.

ATP – SP $47,250.00 $550.93 1.2%
AFL H2H – SP $9,417.00 $919.80 9.8%
AFL Line – SP $61,169.00 $2,891.38 4.7%
NP Win $1,575.00 $(1,575.00) -100.0%
NP Place $1,625.00 $619.00 38.1%
OTP NRL $11,000.00 $4,207.00 38.2%
MLB H2H $51,716.00 $(8,906.24) -17.2%
MLB Totals $32,737.00 $(9,563.55) -29.2%

05. August 2013 by admin
Categories: Monthly | Leave a comment

Football Investor 2012/13 Review

Football Investor is a lot like TFA, the majority of bets line up with TFA and rarely if ever oppose the other side. But there is one big difference between the two and it is the big issue I am having at the moment. RECORDED ODDS. With a few games I could get similar odds, but the vast majority of the officially recorded odds are not available. I have tried at time of release, random times and just before the off and the odds recorded are not possible. In saying that, the odds I am getting (after putting in a lot of effort) are usually only 5c worse. But as you will see, that 5c makes a big difference over a season.

Let’s start with my thoughts at the beginning of the season.

Finally there is Football Investor, a system I lost a bit on last year, but thought I would give another chance this year. I am betting $200 on FBI picks and $400 on Strikezone. I have no pre determined profits for these systems and just want to see how they perform over the year

Now after just a week I decided to change my approach and followed the Combo system at $500 a bet. Throughout the year I was very happy with FI, it was one of the best performing models early on before losing a bit near the end.

Football Investor cost me £189($287) and I made a profit of $14,434.50. That means a total profit after subscription of $14,147.50. I bet a total of $252,229.00 which equals a ROI of 5.6%. Now these numbers look pretty good to me and I would take them every year. If I had that ROI over all my bets I would be sitting on over $500,000 profit. The issue is when we compare the results to the ones that are official.

Let’s have a look at these.

Official Results
Combo 493 46.36 9.4%

Official Results using $500 per unit
Combo $246,500.00 $23,180.00 9.4%

My Results
Combo FI $252,229.00 $14,434.50 5.7%

It is clear to see the discrepancy between the Official results and the true results. I call these true results as these are what I feel anyone following the service would achieve, they may eek out an extra 1% ROI more then me, but not anywhere near the official results.

So why am I going to follow them again this season? Because anything between 2-5% ROI I am more then happy with. Any model I follow where I know I wont get the same odds, I instantly half their ROI and if it still greater then 2% then I will follow it. I do feel Football Investor is a good service, just not as good as it officially says. I will be having a look at how to play it this season and will be ecstatic if I get the same ROI this season.

02. August 2013 by admin
Categories: Review | Leave a comment

The Football Analyst (TFA) 2012/13 Review

The simplest thing to say is that Graeme did a million times better job of reviewing his own systems and his results can be found here. Unlike a number of other services, he records odds at get-able prices so my results would be very close to his. The only difference was I was betting $750 on home wins and half that amount on away bets (which will account for the different results). I would say take 1-2% ROI of his official results and you can be guaranteed those are fair numbers.

So let’s start with what I said at the start of the season.

Football Analyst is a new system for me and I am following about 10 of the 1 billion different systems on offer. With the UK bets I am betting $750 home and $375 aways and for all euro league bets I will be betting $375. Graeme produced my very own spreadsheet on what I can expect and we are looking for a 100% ROC, which should see $75,000 added to the bank this season.

Before we start with how things went let me offer a disclaimer. There are a heap of different systems and even more combinations to follow, I haphazardly choose 10 systems to play based on past performance, the amount of bets and a set goal I wanted to achieve. Everyone following TFA will have different portfolios and therefore different profits at the end of the season.

So the goal was $75,000 profit. We ended with $35,571.42, so a little under half the expected result. The highest profit mark was $48,000 at the end of March and I was hoping the last few months would see it get close to its target. But the Euro systems lost a massive $29,000 in the last few weeks to wipe out any chance of that. Graeme did say a few times throughout the season that he was not confident in the Euro picks and in the end he was right.

Total cost of the service was £150($228) and profit was $35,571.42. So the ending profit was $35,343.42. Even though it is more then 50% less then I had anticipated, I can’t be unhappy with such a large profit.

In total $587,115 was bet which equates to a ROI of 6%. Breaking it down further, the Established systems had a total bet amount of $328,623 and a profit of $33,876.01, which is a ROI of 10.3%. The Euro system had a total bet amount of $258,492 and a profit of $1,695.41 for a ROI of 0.65%.

Let’s compare that to the official results (using $375 per bet). Established bets had $226,875 bet for a profit of $26,587.50 which is a ROI of 11.7%. The Euro system had a total of $261,375 and a loss of $37.50 for a ROI of 0%. In total that was $488,250 and a profit of $26,550 and total ROI of 5.4%.

We can see that my results and the official results are very close. Here is a further breakdown of all the results.

My Results (Established systems)
6-22 $73,315.00 $7,766.75 10.6%
7-21 $117,485.00 $10,867.00 9.2%
7-22 $49,185.00 $4,625.25 9.4%
8-21 $57,125.00 $9,032.88 15.8%
8-22 $31,513.00 $1,584.13 5.0%

Official Results (these are in units. 1 unit = $375)
6-21 563 43.0 7.6%
6-22 148 16.9 11.4%
7-21 210 18.5 8.8%
7-22 93 9.2 9.8%
8-21 97 20.7 21.3%
8-22 57 5.7 10.0%

My Results (Euro systems)
E1-E7 $75,830.00 $(1,589.74) -2.1%
E2-E6 $87,412.00 $(2,502.61) -2.9%
E2-E7 $44,625.00 $4,037.26 9.0%
E3-E6 $32,250.00 $(923.25) -2.9%
E3-E7 $18,375.00 $2,673.75 14.6%

Official Results (these are in units. 1 unit = $375)
E1-E7 203 -6.8 -3.4%
E2-E6 236 -8.9 -3.8%
E2-E7 121 9.1 7.6%
E3-E6 86 2.4 2.7%
E3-E7 51 4.1 8.1%

Just for a bit of fun, if I had followed every single UK system bet (impossible) then I would have bet a total of $3,612,000 and made a profit of $349,312.50 at a ROI of 9.7%.

So at the end of the day, not what I was hoping but still a healthy result. I will readjust for the 13/14 season and hope that this new portfolio performs as well as it has in past years.

Looking forward to another year of TFA.

31. July 2013 by admin
Categories: Review | 2 comments

July 24th – July 30th -$9,438.21

Just arrived in London and very disappointed with the weeks results. Everything lost money this week. Don’t have much time so will make it a short post.

ATP lost $3,600. AFL finally had a bad week and lost $2,800. OTP NRL made a tiny $100 loss. MLB continues its pathetic form and after being up well over $25,000 only a month or so ago, I am now into negative territory for the season. This week lost another $2,500 on H2H. Of course as I am not following totals on CRDOGS suggestion, that went amazing again this week.

Two small losses with Nick’s picks and I am having doubts about the service already. He seems to change his spreadsheet if better odds come out and the bookmakers he uses are ones no one can get a decent amount on. I will send him an email this week to see what he says. It is after all a free service, but if the prices are wrong (and it seems that way) then I won’t be wasting more of my money.

Hoping for a return to form this week. Need to kick this thing into gear and start making some profit to pay for this trip.

Total loss for the week was $9,438.21

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $207,435.00
Profit/Loss: -$(11,449.83)
POT: -5.52%

Bets Placed: 293
Won: 119
Lost: 170
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 4
Winning %: 41.2%

Total profit per day: $176,072.26 / 1126 = $156.36
Total Turnover: $9,957,264.53
Total ROI: 1.77%

AFL H2H – SP $9,417.00 $919.80 9.8%
week profit/loss: 453.50

AFL Line – SP $61,169.00 $2,891.38 4.7%
week profit/loss: -3233.30

ATP – SP $44,927.00 $1,532.14 3.4%
week profit/loss: -3604.45

OTP NRL $11,000.00 $4,207.00 38.2%
week profit/loss: -100

MLB H2H $46,685.00 $(9,936.60) -21.3%
week profit/loss: -2553.96

MLB Totals $32,737.00 $(9,563.55) -29.2%
week profit/loss: 0

NP Win $750.00 $(750.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -200

NP Place $750.00 $(750.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -200

30. July 2013 by admin
Categories: update | 4 comments

July 17th – July 23rd +$7,474.30

Well I finally was in profit in my 4th season of betting, shame it only lasted a few hours.

It finally happened, a half point win in the AFL. It was the second biggest bet of the week too which made it all the more sweeter. If it takes 3 wins to make you feel better after 1 loss then I am about 238 wins away from feeling normal with these half point results.

This week was also the first week of Golf tipping and we start with a negative $1,100. The other loss this week is with MLB H2H bets, a $1,300 loss. I have stopped totals until September and if I had bet them I would have made $4,300 this week. I really can’t catch a break. I will continue to track these results.

AFL continues a recent patch of fine form with H2H returning $2,400 after two long shots came home and the Line bets returned $5,900 including the half point win. Tennis broke even which was disappointing after last weeks effort. OTP NRL is up for the season with another $1,500 profit this week.

We are getting closer to the new Football season and I better find some time to finish the previous seasons reviews. Will be in London for 3 weeks from the start of August, should give me a chance to finish them of.

Now back to enjoying the Amalfi coast (which today cost me $3,000 profit as I was out and missed a big tennis winner).

Total profit for the week was $7,474.30

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $156,055.00
Profit/Loss: -$(2,011.62)
POT: -1.29%

Bets Placed: 222
Won: 91
Lost: 128
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 3
Winning %: 41.6%

Total profit per day: $185,510.47 / 1119 = $165.78
Total Turnover: $9,905,884.53
Total ROI: 1.87%

AFL H2H – SP $7,676.00 $466.30 6.1%
week profit/loss: 2383.30

AFL Line – SP $46,944.00 $6,124.68 13.0%
week profit/loss: 5909.03

ATP – SP $33,566.00 $5,136.59 15.3%
week profit/loss: 53.53

OTP NRL $9,000.00 $4,307.00 47.9%
week profit/loss: 1503

MLB H2H $25,032.00 $(7,382.64) -29.5%
week profit/loss: -1274.56

MLB Totals $32,737.00 $(9,563.55) -29.2%
week profit/loss: 0

NP Win $550.00 $(550.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -550

NP Place $550.00 $(550.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -550

23. July 2013 by admin
Categories: update | Leave a comment

July 10th – July 16th +$8,726.65

A good recovery for the second week of year 4. Driven completely by an amazing run of dogs winning in the Tennis. AFL was looking like a disaster, with another half point loss early in the week, but 2 winning bets on Sunday turned a big deficit into a small profit. Still waiting for that week for AFL to go 100%. Baseball started the week terribly and after asking the owner of the model if he was worried, I was told that this stage of the season (July-August), they bet much smaller as they go terrible. Something I wish I was told before I lost over $20,000.

AFL ended with a tiny $1,100 profit. OTP NRL has started a good run lately and added $1,300. As mentioned above, MLB went terrible for 2 days before I stopped following it for the next 2 months. But after looking at past performance, I will be following H2H bets but staying away from the totals until the start of September. It lost a further $2,100. Loving the return to form of the Tennis model with $8,400 profit for the week.

The only other point of interest for you guys is that I will be following a Golf tipster. A free one. Nicspicks. Now every free model I have ever followed has cost me a fortune and my last foray into betting on golf cost me well over $10,000. I want to diversify the portfolio a bit and these tips are followed by a few others and his results look good, IF i can get on at the advised prices. I will be using $100 per unit.

That’s all for the week folks. Next week I’ll hopefully be telling you how I’m so happy to be back in profit for year 4 and some bullshit about onwards and upwards instead of the turbulent ups and downs that is to befall me for the next few years.

Total profit for the week was $8,726.65

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $109,646.00
Profit/Loss: -$9,485.92
POT: -8.65%

Bets Placed: 149
Won: 62
Lost: 85
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 2
Winning %: 42.2%

Total profit per day: $178,036.17 / 1112 = $160.10
Total Turnover: $9,859,475.53
Total ROI: 1.81%

AFL H2H – SP $4,137.00 $(1,917.00) -46.3%
week profit/loss: -370

AFL Line – SP $31,185.00 $215.65 0.7%
week profit/loss: 1518.75

ATP – SP $20,110.00 $5,083.06 25.3%
week profit/loss: 8395.30

OTP NRL $5,750.00 $2,804.00 48.8%
week profit/loss: 1315

MLB H2H $15,727.00 $(6,108.08) -38.8%
week profit/loss: -2064.10

MLB Totals $32,737.00 $(9,563.55) -29.2%
week profit/loss: -68.30

15. July 2013 by admin
Categories: update | 5 comments

June 2013 Review +$31,499.05

The final monthly review for Year 3 and it was a good one. Coming off Mays disaster of -$48,000 it was good to gain a big chunk of that loss back. It was also helpful to end the year at a profit level that while not being fantastic, was still quite adequate.

June was a month where all 4 sports made a profit. It was a smaller turnover month, but the ROI was amazing. $312,943 was bet for a $31,499.05 profit which is a ROI of 10.07%. You will never hear me complain about even half that ROI.

The two lesser contributors were NRL with a $514 profit over $13,000 bet for a 4% ROI and the Baseball model, which combined made just $2,441.12 after total bets of $149,658. A 1.6% ROI. H2H continued its fantastic year with $4,806 profit at 7.6% but Totals also continued its pathetic run down a further $2,364.88 at a negative 2.7% ROI.

The big contributors were AFL and Tennis. Tennis continued a great season with $15,511.18 profit. Total bet was $75,220 for an amazing 20.6% ROI. AFL had a similar turnover with $75,065 bet for $13,032.50 profit, a very healthy 17.4% ROI. The standout was the H2H betting with a ROI of 53.2%, I am thinking of decreasing the Kelly percentage on the H2H as they have gone amazing, but the moving bank is also helping. Line betting wasn’t too shabby either with 11.6% ROI and $7,465.70 profit.

A happy ending for year 3. Hoping for a similar result to start year 4

ATP – SP $75,220.00 $15,511.18 20.6%
AFL H2H – SP $10,470.00 $5,566.80 53.2%
AFL Line – SP $64,595.00 $7,465.70 11.6%
OTP NRL $13,000.00 $514.25 4.0%
MLB H2H $63,295.00 $4,806.00 7.6%
MLB Totals $86,363.00 $(2,364.88) -2.7%

12. July 2013 by admin
Categories: Monthly | Leave a comment

XX Draws 2012/13 Review

Lets start the Soccer season review with the one model I have chosen not to follow this upcoming season.

XX Draws is a service by Cassini of the excellent Green all Over blog. The general idea behind the service is that the draw is an overlooked bet by many and therefore the price is usually above what it should be and offers value at times.

The service has evolved over the years and now has 3 main systems which are then broken down further into many other systems.

The 3 main systems are the XX Draws Classic, The XX Draws Extended and the XX Bundesliga Draws. The other systems then use these bets to also bet on the following total goal markets (U1.5, U2.5 and U3.5) and also on the Halftime 0-0 correct score. This results in a total of 15 different systems you can choose to follow.

These were my thoughts at the start of the season

The reason I like this system is simple, people hate draws and no one ever bets on them, but they happen a hell of a lot, this means for a lot of games the prices available are great value. This is something that has been noted by Jonno at Sportpunter a number of times, people hate to back the unders in most sports as they want to see lots of goals/points. This makes backing unders very profitable in the right circumstances.

My goals for the year were as follows

I am following the XX Draws and the Extended draws as well as Under 2.5 for each system at $500 per bet. Going off the only stats I can (last years results – I know, I know) I am hoping to make a bit over 100 points of profit. So anything over $50,000 will be amazing. These picks come out very early in the week and allow me to place the bets whenever I like, and as I have a hell of a lot to do on Saturdays I usually finish these on a friday night. They are all bets in Top flight leagues so getting on is a non issue. Long losing runs are to be expected with the draws, but the Under 2.5 should see some stability.

The goal was 100 points profit and these were based of results in the prospectus on the XX draws website. I was following a total of 4 models.

In total I paid £99($147) and made a profit of $273.50. A total profit after fees of $90.50

This image from Cassini’s blog shows his recorded results for the year for all 15 services.

My results were a little different.
XX Draws $70,500.00 $(12,137.50) -17.2%
XX Draws Under 2.5 $70,500.00 $(2,720.00) -3.9%
XX Extended $155,500.00 $12,831.00 8.3%
XX Extended Under 2.5 $155,194.00 $2,300.00 1.5%

We will first compare the XX Draws Classic selections.

There were 141 selections on the Draw and according to the official results a loss of 21.85 units. My results after the same number of bets were a loss of 24.275. A fairly close amount. The reason this is close is because when you have a loss then it does not matter what odds you received.

The official XX Draws Classic U2.5 was a loss of 1.19 units. My lose was 5.44. A bit more of a difference.

Now where I have problems and the reason I am not following next season can be seen on my extended results, where I made a healthy profit.

The official results for the Extended draws was a total profit of 32.50 units after 310 bets. My return was 25.662. 7 units worse off. The official results for the Extended U2.5 was 12.45 units. My actual return was 4.6 units, which is 7.85 units worse.

In total over the 4 services I was 21.358 units worse off then the official results. At my bet size of $500 that is a discrepancy of $10,679.

I made a total profit after fees of $90 for the year, whereas the official results made $10,808 after fees. A staggering difference. What this means is that if I was to follow it this season, the models would need to produce close to 21 units of profit before I broke even (This math isn’t right, but you can understand what I mean). It’s hard enough giving bookies the edge they already have, but when you also have to start with a further disadvantage then it makes things very difficult. The same issue was a big reason I stopped following the so called best horse racing service. Each month I needed to reach 30 units “Official” profit to break even.

So why is this happening?

It’s simple really, the quoted odds that are being recorded are not achievable for someone following the tips. I bet the moment these came out and always found the best price which easily beat closing prices on the majority of matches. There was talk about this earlier in the year and Cassini said to put up an extra 5c on Betfair and it would usually get matched. I tested this assumption for 2 months and although a few bets were matched, the vast majority were not, as my $500 ask actually pushed the prices down further and by the start of the match the odds had been driven down even further, resulting in me getting even worse odds. The times my bets did get matched, it would have been beneficial to wait as the closing odds were higher then what I was matched at.

I was unaware of how these results were being recorded until midway through the season. This is a major issue for me as only a few of the tipsters I follow do a good job of recording achievable odds. Without a reasonable chance of getting the advised prices, the majority of tipsters are actual at best a break even service, this is something I have had to learn over the last 3 years.

I’m really disappointed in these results and my conclusion, as I really thought this model had a great idea, but without real world achievable numbers to back it up, I can not throw more of my money towards it. It also doesn’t help that I really like Cassini, in all my dealings with him he has been a genuine great guy, and to be honest that is why it took me this long to write this post. I was almost not going to write it, but I feel it is my job to be as honest as possible on this blog. At Christmas last year we even exchanges gifts, some Port from me and a very nice contribution to my bike from Cassini. Hopefully my appraisal of his system doesn’t affect that relationship.

There are other reason that helped me decide to not follow the XX Draws this season. Firstly these bets coincided with other bets on the same game, so on some games I would be betting on all three results, a long term losing option. The other reason is that TFA is working on a draw system, and after his results the past few years (which are at achievable odds), I will be testing these out as long as they don’t overlap other bets.

What I would say could restore some faith in the XX Draws system is for the bets to be proofed somewhere. That would give a clear view of what is really possible and would make a lot of criticism about the service I have heard from others go away.

So that’s my take on the XX Draws and the reasons I have decided to stop following them.

UPDATE: After talking to Cassini via email, he told me it had been noted before that he does not take BF commission into consideration when recording his odds. I do not understand this at all. The BF commission is a real cost of between 2-5% for all of us. We are continuing our conversation and he has asked what I feel the best way to record his odds for next season would be.

09. July 2013 by admin
Categories: Review | 7 comments

← Older posts

Newer posts →