Sept 29th – Oct 4th -$122.03
Back to my usual Tuesday posting time now. I will be heading to Manilla from the 12th – 19th to play in a soccer tournament so there will be no update that week.
Last weeks update had some very fiery responses to my statements about Formbet. Dave came on to defend his service and a few new visitors also made some comments. It’s a good read if you have the time, click on the comments section of the previous post and add your own opinion.
To reiterate, I just mentioned that I had been following the service for 9 months and had lost $25,000 so I was stopping my subscription, I said that his service did not work for me, but did not say it wasn’t good or potentially profitable. Dave was not happy about me saying what I said and commented on the post (which I appreciate), things got heated with a new poster called Sid and then some of Dave’s current members came on to defend his service. I have offered Dave the opportunity to both write a post on this blog which I will not edit and I have also offered to test his service at my own expense to minimum stakes and report on them on this site. Thus far Dave has not responded to any of these.
Onto the bets for this week. The AFL season finished and we were on the wrong side this week. We backed Collingwood and lost $2,225. H2H for the year was down $5,776.77. Luckily I increased my Line betting Kelly so a bit more was bet on these bets. Line betting finished with $21,962.73 profit. I bet totals for 3/4 of the year before stopping when it was $11,225.30 down. So a total profit of $4,960.66 for the year.
Next year I will again bet the Line with a higher Kelly, while reducing the totals bets and H2H.
The MLB regular season also ended this week and we are now into the playoffs. A small loss for the week there.
ATP lost about the same amount that WTA profited, so a break even week in the Tennis.
I am now following 3 different soccer tipsters. There is FB Elite, Skeeve, and Football Investor (Which also runs Strikezone)
FB Elite had the 1 bet for $915 profit, Skeeve made $544 and FB Investors 2 services also produced a profit of $246. So a nice beginning.
I have a few reservations about Skeeve’s service, not about it being any good. He has shown consistent profit over many years, my issue is on the release times and me being able to get odds that are near his. His tips come out around 4am my time and he bets on a lower English league, so by the time I wake up 4 hours later and place the bets I am getting usually 10cent worse lines. I did the maths and if I continue to get these odds I will be lucky to break even for the year, I have started to keep track of closing prices and I will also try and get up at 4am to see if I can get close prices also. But it looks like it might not be the right service for me.
I may also get my Monkey to start betting the Sportpunter Soccer tips again. These resulted in a nice profit last year but took hours to find and place all the bets. The monkey has free time so I will be testing this out in the next month.
I am also following a new horse racing system, I will not mention the name of this system just yet as don’t want to cause another debate like the last one :). A nice start to this service also.
Total loss for the week was $122.03
Baseball $428,156.01 $15,355.47 3.6%
week profit/loss: -638.54
Baseball Line $567,264.00 $22,136.84 3.9%
week profit/loss: 553.67
AFL $87,199.00 $(1,863.90) -2.1%
week profit/loss: -635
AFL line $277,940.00 $26,303.76 9.5%
week profit/loss: -1590
Tennis – ATP $483,866.13 $25,805.82 5.3%
week profit/loss: -1118.68
WTA – Tennis $518,944.00 $13,503.44 2.6%
week profit/loss: 1198.02
FB Elite $7,150.00 $435.65 6.1%
week profit/loss: 915
Skeeve $9,058.00 $35.25 0.4%
week profit/loss: 544.50
New Horse $3,205.00 $1,299.50 40.5%
week profit/loss: 1299.50
Football Investor $1,600.00 $(178.00) -11.1%
week profit/loss: -178
Strikezone $4,000.00 $424.00 10.6%
week profit/loss: 424
Stats
Total bet amount: $3,895,048.94
Profit/Loss: $37,514.14
POT: 1.0%
Bets Placed: 8,923
Won: 3,683
Lost: 4,932
Half Payout: 4
Refunded: 304
Winning %: 42.8%
Profit per day: 37,514.14 / 461 = $81.37
Hi
Appriciate with your work. I’ve been using sportpunter.com for 4 years.
How’s you doing with getting odds? Bookies limits?
Hi Kirill,
I mostly get the same odds, sometimes better, sometimes a little worse. But I use webmon and make sure I know when the bets for the day are coming out. As soon as they are released I bet them.
If I don’t bet MLB quickly the prices move against me.
How are you finding them? can you get the same prices?
It is a really important point as if you can’t get the advised prices then most of your profit is taken right there.
My average bet size is $500 and say i was getting 5cent worse odds per bet. That’s $25 less per winning bet. It might not seem like a lot, but I have around 7,000 bets a year, with around 3,000 of them winning. That small 5cent drop would cost me $75,000.
So as you can see, getting the right odds is very very important
With bookie limits, I have lost my accounts at most UK bookies. So now just bet at Pinnacle, 5dimes (limited), 188bet, sbobet, betfair and a few others.
Thank you for your answer.
1. I found sportpunter.com 6 years ago. My friend advised me.
2. I used to bet Tennis, MLB, NBA (long ago. now it’s new model), MLB (with crdog). I used webmon too. If I didn’t get bet taken in 2-3 minutes – odds had been changed significantly. Especially pinnacle. I didn’t use pinnacle because their odds drops 4-5 seconds after update. So I’ve been using only betfair, but sometimes liquidity doesn’t allow me to bet my full usual stake (around 400-500 usd).
Do you use bookie shops? Their limits aren’t so small as Internet accounts.
Kirill, sometimes im a few minutes late with Tennis, and odds move, but not too sharply, and pinnacle is usually still the best place to bet. I use oddschecker to find the best odds and go from there.
It looks like we bet the same amount on average, I actually don’t use betfair at all, as like you said, early on there isn’t much liquidity. How have you done this year with Tennis? After the horrible Australian open, I remember saying I would be happy to break even with tennis this year, Im sitting on over $40,000 profit from it right now 🙂
I live in Australia so the only bookie shops are the TAB which have terrible odds.
I stop using sportpunter at 2008 because it was impossible to get such odds as he does.
I haven’t found that to be the case, for tennis he seems to use pinnacles lines, and I can usually get them, sometimes I can get higher elsewhere and sometimes I do need to take lower odds. But i get closer odds with Sportpunter then I do with any other service I use.
My next post tomorrow will show some maths of what I can expect from one service where I am getting poor odds.