September 2nd – September 8th +$8,323.92
September has gotten off to a great start. All those August atrocities are long forgotten (NOT), but it is nice to have a winning week again. If I had decided to bet the AFL this week would have been another losing one. The reason I didn’t bet AFL was simple. With no motivation for most teams and huge team changes there simply wasn’t enough data to come up with a reliable number. I feel these type of rounds offer a huge opportunity for those sharp punters that bet based not on numbers but by breaking down the motivations of that one off game. In saying that, the bets could have all won and I would be kicking myself, but they didn’t and I saved myself from a $22,000 loss.
Yesterdays article about trolls must not have been well written as I was sent so many emails saying they would be sad to see my site go. I had to explain I was talking about a different blog that was shutting down and they would have to continue to deal with me for many years to come.
The big news is the upcoming review into online gambling laws which has moved from trying to protect the punter to just shutting down any international sites. Unless action is taken by the Aussie punters, we will no longer be able to bet at Pinnacle or other off shore sites and as we can’t bet with the Australian books, it will mean we can’t bet at all. It does not look good for any punter who might be able to break even or god forbid make a tiny profit from a hobby they love. The bookies love that we are too lazy to make much noise about how they treat their customers, so over the coming weeks if you don’t make a racket about this you will have no one to blame but yourself. It’s time to be heard and get minimum bet laws passed for all sports.
Onto this weeks results and as mentioned above there were no bets on the AFL, saving me from a $22,000 loss. The NRL also had its last regular season round, but the motivation was there for most of these teams. The model made a great comeback and won a massive $7,700. MLB made a tiny $150 and I’m hoping it can get back to its early season form.
Dailyprofit members had a field day. They were told not to bet the AFL (which are still recorded in the official results), but the NRL line bets went 7-1 for a huge return of 25% of their banks. We also have the NFL to look forward to in the coming weeks and that is a very strong model.
Onto the other betting and both Jason Kelly lost $250. My own Personal bets also lost $100. I backed the wrong side of a baseball game for $800 profit.
September starts with a win and I’m hoping it can continue on and bring me back into profit for the year. We are only 2 months into year 6 and the swings have been massive. With the Soccer betting only days away things are likely to get even wilder. I’ve also updated my total profit and loss graph and you can see that on the left hand side.
Total Profit for the week was $8,323.92
[mc4wp_form]
Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $922,706.00
Profit/Loss: $(5,703.55)
POT: -0.62%
Bets Placed: 761
Won: 260
Lost: 356
Half Payout: 10
Refunded: 135
Winning %: 42.2%
Total profit per day: $380,354.59 / 1896 = $200.60
Total Turnover: $22,808,738.30
Total ROI: 1.67%
AFL H2H $75,090.00 $(185.47) -0.2%
week profit/loss: 0
AFL Line $262,522.00 $8,219.15 3.1%
week profit/loss: 0
NRL $69,746.00 $1,659.69 2.4%
week profit/loss: 7717.92
MLB Totals $333,973.00 $(5,793.67) -1.7%
week profit/loss: 149.75
Jason Kelly $4,590.00 $(4,515.00) -98.4%
week profit/loss: -250
Betswot $2,925.00 $(236.80) -8.1%
week profit/loss: 0
Odds Pushed Out $11,500.00 $351.00 3.1%
week profit/loss: 0
Personal $157,203.00 $(9,498.31) -6.0%
week profit/loss: -96.25
Mistake $2,500.00 $2,563.25 102.5%
week profit/loss: 802.48
Great post as always. How do you suggest we make our voices heard in a united way?
Thanks Tony, I’ll be creating a change.org petition and also writing an open letter to Barry and Bill on this blog, hopefully enough people forward it onto them and share it on social media.
Good on you Steve! An social activist – for betting….and I was looking for a reason to give it up. 😉
As I touched on via Twitter last week Steve, using the online shopping example, this same discussion can be linked to a number of industries that have undergone globalisation in recent times. In many ways, the consumer creates the market. If the market in Australia served the needs of the Australian punter, the perceived threat by the ‘illegal sites’ would be far less.
The issues that I see from the commentary yesterday, from a punters perspective, are two fold:
1 – the review is being lead by the Social Services minister, whose primary interest under his portfolio is problem gambling.
2 – the terms of reference are far too narrow. In essence it is a ‘how do we stop it?’ review and not a ‘let’s understand the landscape and shape it for the future’ review.
As a punter, we would want this review to be led by Turnbull and his remit in overseeing the interactive gaming act. Secondly, we would want a thorough review of both the Australian wagering landscape and the role of international bookmakers within it. At present a term of reference that states ‘the economic impacts of illegal sites on legal Australian businesses’ suggests we will only be getting one side of that story.
It is not a positive start to this review at all, let’s hope it finishes on a much better note.
This is without a doubt the end for sites like Pinnacle.
Whilst the Government might make noise about problem gambling I think they could truly care less. All they care about is revenue whether that be through taxes or licensing. Just take a look at the national debt. They need to grab money in whatever form they can.
If an offshore operator pays nothing to the Australian Government then they will be clamped down on.
However for the same reason I feel there is hope of minimum bet rules in Australia as winning gamblers actually do add to turnover in a big way. Bookies might not agree given the current turnover vs profit model that is currently in place so things might need to change their also.
I still feel you will be able to bet offshore as some operators could also care less where the bets come from and there will always be options out there. However I hold out little hope for great sites like Pinnacle.
Exactly Josh, I agree with everything you said, and use the shopping example in tomorrows post. I believe you have a lot to add and would appreciate your comments on tomorrows post. Thanks
For any winning punter, they are smart enough to figure out ways around any type of legislation. But there is every chance Pinnacle will do what they did with the English market and just leave it.
Agreed Steve. I think it will be a mirror image of what happened there with particular books just leaving. The only advantage Australians have is that they can start preparing in advance and using similar methods that UK punters would be implementing right now to get bets on.