The dirty little secret that tipsters don’t want you to know.

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  • Vorogue

    Steve, you speak my language, you say things the way I understand them
    to be and I am very comfortable and trusting of your service. The only
    unknown for me is the SP models themselves…..and those that are
    monitoring results and adapting to any changes. What if they are not
    able to maintain the model over time to continue 0-3% ROI?? We are
    reliant on you advising us if these models are unlikely to provide long
    term profits, which will likely happen only after long term losses. That
    is probably the greatest trust we are placing upon you….

  • Hey Vorogue,
    Thanks for the kind words. I believe in the SP models based on my own use and profit of them and their decade long track record. There is no doubt any service can lose its “mojo” and become a losing one. But I have trust that Jonno will spot any problems long before that happens.
    But you are right, in certain cases we just won’t know until it is too late and we have lost our banks. This is why we are gambling and must make sure we only bet with money we can afford to lose.
    I will always do my best to look after my clients and I know Jonno does the same.

  • Vorogue

    Yep I believe you guys will…just a nice little few % profit to complement the other things we dabble in would be good. Other than NRL, NHL, 15’s and AFL, any other models in the pipeline?

  • MLB will be starting soon, NBA and NFL also later in the year. Cricket might be on the agenda for this year.

  • Vorogue

    Sounds good, gee cricket is a hard one. Tennis seems the most appealing to me. One v one, same court dimensions, minimal weather variations. The least variables of any sport I would think. Only 18 months into my own tennis model with moderate success (3-4% ROI) but it is amazing how often players repeat the same habits in certain situations such as winning 1st set lose in 3, choke in tight situations, start slow etc etc.

  • Tennis was always a strong model for SP, but had gone off the boil the last year. I also only want to advise bets where the markets can hold up for all clients. Most value with Tennis (and most sports) is betting early prices. Limits are pretty low sadly. That’s why we really want to look more at the big 3 american sports (NFL,NBA and MLB)

  • Vorogue

    Yep fair enough…oh well, best I don’t look further ahead than the next 7 days, so here’s hoping for a good week. Cheers Steve

  • Brett

    “There is no doubt any service can lose its “mojo” and become a losing one.”

    Nothing to do with ‘mojo’ and everything to do with market efficiency.

    The no.1 reason why a model can go on an extended losing run is that the market has caught up with its methods, and the utility of those approaches are pummeled into the line/price.

    We’re all in a race to the bottom; sports betting is a quantitative arms race where modelers innovate or perish.

    From first hand experience, the extent I’ve seen groups go to find advantage is phenomenal, and it would be affecting some of the sports/markets you have mentioned. All just to stay ahead of this inexorable degradation rate in ROI% returns.

  • Brett

    That’s why we really want to look more at the big 3 american sports (NFL,NBA and MLB).

    Having done (and still doing) NBA and NFL modelling for 5 years, BOL. I’m in awe of the closing line efficiency of these markets.

    If all you’re packing is modelling against standard box-score data, you will not get far.