The worst AFL weekend in history

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  • Luke Anders

    Hi Steve,

    This season more so than previous seasons, it seems so many of the SP bets have already been significantly crunched days before. Sucking a ton of value out of the market.

    I believe the market has become much sharper over the last few years and will probably continue to do so. I’ve spoken to a couple of data geeks who have a love of AFL and advanced maths that have over the last few years built some impressive databases, player ratings and predictive models just for the fun of it and only decided to get into punting over the last 12 months. If I’ve spoken to a few, I assume there’s probably many more.

    Another potential factor that has been discussed by some pro punters is their belief that the game has significantly changed this season and their models have failed to adjust adequately. As a spectacle AFL looks far more free-flowing with a lot less stoppages this season than in previous seasons. Would be keen to know if Jonathan had any thoughts on that point.

  • Christoffer Hansson

    I don’t really think the market becoming smarter has that much to do with it. If Junnos model was “correct” according to the market, we would have no bets. Have there been more bets with large overlays in previous seasons? If the amount of bets with large overlays are the same as previous seasons this can’t really have anything to do with the market being adjusted? As we are kellybetting through the presumption that SP-model is “correct”? Or is my thinking off here?

    1. Variance/luck/bad luck
    2. Game is a bit different this season and the model is not adjusted accordingly.

    On of the two

  • Christoffer Hansson

    Not just large bets but bets in general should be fewer if market has been corrected after junnos model?

  • Jimmy27

    I’ve always felt that Sport Punter Models get their edge from taking early prices. There’s still a bit of value around come game day but that seems to be fading now.

    Interestingly there are a some new AFL services around that release their picks on Thursday after the team announcements.

    One in particular is going at over 20% ROI for the season.

    It seems that it’s a bit of a race to get bets on for the best results.

  • I tend to agree. The earlier you can bet, and the less information available is the best time to bet. The issue becomes the amount you can bet and how quickly prices will move when betting early.

    SP could move back to Thursday releases and that will make a change in his official results, but it will mean most members can’t match them, making the results pointless.

  • Hi Luke,

    I’ve also noticed a larger number of people creating their own models. As fantasy also gets bigger, more and more are getting into the stats side of things.

    I’ve heard others say that the game is very different now and this could be a factor. I’m not sure how you can quantify that though. It’s an interesting time and I’m sure something Jonno will be looking into for next season.

  • Graham Halle

    It’s pretty obvious why you have lost Steve. Too many people with too much information leading to shortening odds. I feel sorry for your clients who you are reselling the Sports punter tips to. They may well receive them at a discount to the original price. But it is of little value if the information is 3rd hand. I assume you place your bets before you pass the tips on? In which case they will probably be getting even shorter odds than you have, leading to them sitting on bigger losses. Betting is not just about predicting the result, but also placing the bet at the right price. I am sure you realise this though?

  • Hey Graham,
    Yes, I and Sportpunter members compete for odds before Dailyprofit members receive them. The official odds for Sportpunter are from just Pinnacle and Dailyprofit uses average of Pinnacle (after the price has been smashed) and top priced Aussie book. For members of both services these prices are beatable with barely any effort. So members will do better than official results.

    As you mention, the price is key and Dailyprofit members will never get the same odds as SP clients. While SP clients might be looking at between 5-10% ROI, Dailyprofit members will make between 1-4% ROI. Most people can’t afford the high cost of the SP service and see DP as a fine alternative (knowing they are costing themselves some ROI).

    We are just another price level for members looking for a profitable service.

  • Graham Halle

    Thanks for your reply Steve. Yes a it is tricky balance between the tipster being greedy and enlarging his client base too far and providing predictions at realistically obtainable odds. Rugby interests me. How liquid are the Rugby markets in Australia then?

  • If you are talking about Rugby Leagure (NRL) the markets are huge. If you are talking about Union then the markets are not very big.

  • Graham Halle

    Interesting. I have several rugby successful models but not one for NRL. That may well be worth developing one for that Steve.

  • Awesome, best of luck with it.

  • Graham Halle

    Thank you Steve.