Dailyprofit analysis: Model performance in early rounds
Over the years, what appears to be a pattern has emerged with the Sportpunter models. The models seem to have a massive edge at the start of the season before they tail off (but still make a profit). I decided to see how Dailyprofit members have done in the first two months of both the NRL and AFL.
We have 3 full seasons worth of data to look at.
NRL
We have advised 147 bets over the 3 seasons during the first 8 weeks of the NRL season. Profit has been 37.7659 units ($3,776.59 @ $100 per unit) and we have turned over 287 units ($28,770.00) for an amazing 13.12% ROI.
We can compare this to the total ROI over 3 and a half season which sits at 9.3%.
The graph below shows that the first full year resulted in a small loss, but the second (2016 season) and especially the third (2017 season) did very well during the early rounds.
AFL
Even more impressive are the AFL results. We have advised 301 bets (H2H & Line) for 39.6756 units profit ($3,967.56 @ $100 per unit) and have turned over 397.40 units ($39,740.00) which means an amazing 9.98% ROI.
When we compare that to the entire 3 and a half year models results, we see that if you don’t get in from the start with the AFL, you are unlikely to make a profit. The current AFL performance sits at -1.4% ROI.
Why does it start so well?
The real answer is that we have no idea. It could be that the Sportpunter models are more accurate early and as bookmakers get more data, their lines get better (negating the huge advantage the model has). It could be variance (as 147 and 301 bets respectively are not all that many). It could also change this season and we could see losses early and wins late.
How can we use this information?
One error I see people making is being cautious early in the season and once they gain trust in the model, they increase their banks. Others start the season knowing they will be using a moving bank. What this info does tell us is that the best approach would be to use a static bank. Figure out what you want to bet each week and stick to it for the entire season.
Another thing you might want to do is to bet for the first two months and if you have made a good profit, simply decide to stop following the models. While more profit will be made from following them to the end of the season, the majority of the profits are made with just 8 weeks worth of effort (instead of 6 months).
It’s really up to you to decide how to use this information. Personally, I will be using a static bank and evaluating my position after 8 weeks (with the likelihood that I will continue until the end of the season).
Just 9 spots left
2 days ago we opened up 30 spots to the Sportpunter service. 21 new members have already registered.
The DP Sportpunter service is just $98 per month, or in other words, just $12 a week for the NRL, and $12 a week for the AFL models (and we throw in the NBA for free).
You can subscribe by heading to Dailyprofit and clicking on the Subscribe Now button.
