WOWAWEEWAH. Back to back massive weeks has catapulted the profits into a new territory for me. I’m too lazy to look back through my past posts, but I believe this may be the first ever $30k+ week. Even in my wildest predictions, I never thought my profit could be this high at this stage. It was at the start of November that I was begging for a break even season when sitting at -$50,000. Amazing the amount of profit that can be made when things start going well. Lets hope the introduction of the AFL season this month adds even more to the profit and I can break the magical $100,000 barrier for the season.
Lets start with the small amount of pain I had to endure while watching an NBL game on the weekend. I had a $2,000 bet on the -4.5 line and with 5 seconds left my team was up by 4 and stole the ball and had two guys under the oppositions ring, they pass the ball and the guy has a good 3 seconds to layup, dunk, make a cup of tea. What does he do, dribbles the ball away from the ring and lets time expire. WHY. Closest I have ever been to throwing my remote at the tv. Serves me right for watching games I bet on and I know I say it every time, but I have to stop watching games. The soccer starts at 2am every Sunday morning and I sit with my Flashscores app while watching an EPL game and don’t get to bed till 5am. Last weeks goal was to go without Facebook, Twitter and my RSS feeds, I lasted the 5 days of the week. This week my goal is to not watch games.
I’ll also talk about Skeeve before getting onto the results. He has now started sending some German tips and this really got to me, I know I can easily delete the emails and I do, but it really seems he is doing all this as a backup plan for his service. I was so so close to not following this weeks picks as I thought that if he is already trying to cover his arse then why should I have any faith in his tipping. But then I felt bad for him, he is just trying to run a business and some other streams of income are a good idea as clearly his own tipping is not looking great (up until this week at least). Then the first ever 5 point bet I can remember pops up and that got me thinking he was chasing (but it was due to low odds). So after all this I decided to bet, but for the first time ever, the two bookies I can get multi bets at (conference south league) were below the minimum odds of 1.60 so I did not place the bet. I managed to get on the other two and the draw got very very lucky. The other was a good win.
Onto the results.
Tennis made a comeback with $5,100 profit, the NAB cup ended with $2,100 profit and a nice profit for the tournament, good signs for the season ahead. Rugby had its first losing week, shedding $800. After the shocking NBL result, it ended the week up $250. NBA also made a tiny profit. NHL started up again after the Olympics and 95% of games are going over and luckily the model was on the over for most of these games. $5,500 profit and back evens for the season after being down a fairly hefty sum. So the winner of the Daily25 awards makes me around $12,000 for the week.
Soccer has made a blistering comeback, down $60k at one stage and now just down $10k. Another tipster pushes into positive territory and Skeeve is also close. FB Elite seems to have turned the corner with $8,200 profit this week and Skeeve added $6,900. Combo FI continues its year long form with $1,800 and TFA added a further $5,000.
ClubGOWI had a poor week with a $3,000 loss and I am still yet to see a profit from his Soccer picks. I think he feels that he needs to have bets every day and sometimes there is nothing good but he is expected to send out bets. After the season I will do some analysis on what leagues he seems to excel at. I wish he kept a real list of results so I could do some proper testing, but I will need to rely on my own data. Nics Picks never looked like winning this week and lost another $775, really need a second win of the season.
I will be writing a post in the coming days about Pinnacle Sports. This time I feel they have taken things too far in regards to a timer being implemented for some bets, it seems they are now referring a few ClubGOWI bets to a trader and this would be the first step on a very slippery slope to being just like every other bookie. I was asked by the Pinnacle rep on Twitter to let them answer my questions before I post anything, I have given them 36 hours and still no reply. There are a number of things I want to discuss, but it seems they are now targeting clients of successful tipsters and this just isn’t on. They say they don’t limit winners and work like a traditional bookie, but this behavior shows they will at the end of the day, do anything to stop people making money from them. Just like all the rest.
Still need to get around to also replying to Graeme and I’m hoping I can find some free time this week, but can’t promise anything.
Other good news that none of you would care about is that I just got back from my indoor soccer Grand final and we won the game easily. I scored 2 beauties and set up 3 others. Not that I’m talking myself up or anything, but I’m very talented. haha
What an amazing run and it has mirrored last season as I kept saying earlier. If it continues to mirror, there is at least another month of profits before a small dip and then more profits to round out the season. Well over $250,000 now and 1/4 of the way to a real milestone. Long may it continue.
Total profit for the week was $30,675.26
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,700,746.34
Profit/Loss: $89,201.59
POT: 3.30%
Bets Placed: 4,649
Won: 1717
Lost: 2677
Half Payout: 21
Refunded: 234
Winning %: 39.1%
Total profit per day: $276,723.68/ 1343 = $206.04
Total Turnover: $12,450,575.87
Total ROI: 2.22%
ATP – SP $326,184.00 $4,062.46 1.2%
week profit/loss: 5170.23
AFL H2H – SP $31,795.00 $4,893.75 15.4%
week profit/loss: 1420.20
AFL Line – SP $207,830.00 $41,317.17 19.9%
week profit/loss: 742.50
Rugby SP $7,113.00 $3,792.22 53.3%
week profit/loss: -767.43
FB Elite $185,000.00 $4,339.00 2.3%
week profit/loss: 8200
Skeeve $88,498.00 $(2,867.70) -3.2%
week profit/loss: 6900
Combo FI $105,215.00 $17,092.88 16.2%
week profit/loss: 1805
TFA $509,126.00 $(28,337.08) -5.56%
week profit/loss: 5017.50
ClubGowi $168,391.00 $7,183.60 4.3%
week profit/loss: -2954.60
NP Win $19,629.34 $(5,511.34) -28.1%
week profit/loss: -775
NHL Totals $253,928.00 $(217.40) -0.1%
week profit/loss: 5556.99
NBL Totals $92,899.00 $27,660.89 29.8%
week profit/loss: 567
NBL Line $83,738.00 $26,943.67 32.2%
week profit/loss: -302
NBA Totals $129,964.00 $912.79 0.7%
week profit/loss: -880.86
NBA H2H $83,318.00 $8,468.01 10.2%
week profit/loss: 975.73