I did say I didn’t want to know how bad things could get when Sportpunter models did not perform and like magic, my nightmares were delivered straight away. Sportpunter models still made a small profit in total, but they have been covering for the other services for a very long time, actually, they have been covering for them since the start. I actually saw this coming after the strong run I had been on lately, and last week it started to falter and this week it really went off the rails. Soccer gave me hope early in the year, but now I can safely say there is little chance of making a profit and a high chance of making a large loss for the season. I was on such a high Saturday afternoon and after one of my single biggest wins, everything went down hill.
Lets get Soccer out of the way. Football Elite made $860 and has been steady the last little while, it can really go either way this season. Skeeve made a loss of $200 but as always, it could have been so different. Nuneaton losing a 2 goal lead and Cambridge conceding late turned what would have been a massive win into a small win, and then Skeeve went against all his rules and lost a game this morning to make the week another losing one. It smells like he is chasing to get the service into profit for the year and as I have been saying all year, it does not seem to be working. Combo Football Investor has not been performing to its usual standard lately and lost $3,800 this week and The Football Analyst continues what is for me the worst ever season and loss I have ever had following any model. A further $13,250 lost this week and that takes me to 50% of the bank lost once again. ClubGOWI has also been treading water lately, sadly I have yet to see one of his great runs and hope it comes sooner rather then later. A $1,250 loss this week. So Soccer once again is responsible for this weeks loss with -$17,660.
The first week of AFL started with a split round and on Saturday afternoon I was heralding its return, as GWS produced one of the biggest upsets I have seen. I honestly thought I was throwing $500 away on the H2H bet at $13.50, but they managed to beat the swans pretty soundly in the last. Sadly that was the only win for the model this week and resulted in a $1,500 profit. If you follow me on twitter you might also have seen a bet I placed on that game get up. I was alerted that Sportsbet, who limited me to max bets of 0 had seemed to stuff up their limits for a certain type of bet and it seemed the market on a player was a little high. As I’d do anything to get back at Sportsbet who are a shocking example of how poor the big corporate bookmakers are in Australia, I decided to place my first non official bet in years. The bet was for most goals in the GWS v Sydney game and Cameron was at $12. Buddy Franklin was a firm favorite but the Swans usually share the goals and with Sportpunter thinking GWS had a chance, I assumed the odds should have been closer to $4. I duly placed a $1,000 bet (which for me is huge) on this and nearing the end of the second quarter I was not confident as he had yet to kick a goal. But two goals at the end of that quarter put me back in the game. Late on his teammate had a chance right in front to equal him on goals which would have halved the bet but sprayed it wide. A very lucky $11,000 win which will not be added to the spreadsheet. Maybe I should become a Tipster, how hard can it really be?
Onto the other Sportpunter models and the Tennis finally made a profit with $4,755 added this week bringing it back to break even for the year. The Rugby Union continues its excellent form with $4,000 profit and the new NRL player based model is looking half decent with another $1,400 profit. NHL totals lost $1,100 and NBA had a shocker losing $3,350. NBL had its worst week of the season going 0 for 3 and losing $6,500.
The Golf also had a shocker and lost a further $950.
That magical $100,000 mark now looks so far away. It’s just a random round number and has no significance at all, but psychologically it is massive. Getting so close to surpassing it a few times and now being so far off really gets to me. I know I will continue with Soccer next season, but unless I see some profit, it doesn’t look like it will be part of the portfolio going forward.
Total loss for the week was $17,395.58
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,899,610.34
Profit/Loss: $73,720.64
POT: 2.54%
Bets Placed: 5,023
Won: 1827
Lost: 2931
Half Payout: 25
Refunded: 240
Winning %: 38.4%
Total profit per day: $261,242.73 / 1357 = $192.51
Total Turnover: $12,649,439.87
Total ROI: 2.07%
ATP – SP $340,235.00 $6,518.09 1.9%
week profit/loss: 4755.02
AFL H2H – SP $34,615.00 $8,683.75 25.1%
week profit/loss: 3790
AFL Line – SP $218,230.00 $39,065.17 17.9%
week profit/loss: -2252
Rugby SP $13,888.00 $8,613.32 62.0%
week profit/loss: 4032.65
NRL SP $7,099.00 $3,936.33 55.4%
week profit/loss: 1421.58
FB Elite $206,000.00 $4,639.00 2.3%
week profit/loss: 860
Skeeve $101,698.00 $(6,251.70) -6.1%
week profit/loss: -216
Combo FI $118,215.00 $12,332.38 10.4%
week profit/loss: -3800.50
TFA $541,876.00 $(47,587.08) -6.66%
week profit/loss: -13,250
ClubGowi $195,291.00 $5,745.80 2.9%
week profit/loss: -1254
NP Win $21,579.34 $(4,561.34) -21.1%
week profit/loss: -950
NHL Totals $261,434.00 $3,479.43 1.3%
week profit/loss: -1139
NBL Totals $96,924.00 $31,162.64 32.2%
week profit/loss: 0
NBL Line $94,931.00 $22,080.13 23.3%
week profit/loss: -6480
NBA Totals $146,687.00 $1,465.67 1.0%
week profit/loss: -566.84
NBA H2H $92,790.00 $4,930.38 5.3%
week profit/loss: -2778.49