What a killer week. A seriously depressing end to what at one staged looked like the start of my fightback. I guess I boasted too loudly to the gambling gods when I posted this on twitter on Saturday.
Year 5 currently stands at $830,698 bet for a massive $32 profit. Take that bookies.
— Daily25 (@stevemor) August 16, 2014
As you can see now, year 5 stands at $883,950.00 bet for a $25,051.40 loss. But there are lessons in every loss and for me it is my very high reliance on the AFL model. This year it has not performed to the same high standard as past years. It is still up over $40,000 so there are no complaints, but with past years always returning at least a 100% ROC, I assumed the same would happen again this season. I also need to trust in Jonno’s skills a little more in regards to his other models (apart from Tennis). His NRL and S15 models this year have been nothing short of extraordinary and like the NBL model last season, have added a big chunk of profit at fairly low stakes. If I was betting with the same size bank as I do for the AFL model, then this season would be looking very different. Next season I will be upping my stakes by 4x on both NRL and S15. NBL is a tough one as no bookie wants to take a bet over a few hundred dollars on it. I will need to test their willingness to take a bet in the first few weeks of the season.
Everything was going so well on Saturday, The Brisbane Lions beat Collingwood at odds of $6.50 and that H2H and Line win added $7,500 profit. That was the only AFL win of the entire week and there were some very big bets. The H2H ended up returning $1021 thanks to that big BL win, but the Line bets lost a massive $20,125. ATP is just loss after loss, it really is the worst thing I have seen Jonno produce, the weird thing is we continue to beat closing lines, but we continue to loss on short priced favs on a very regular basis. It lost $2,100 this week and the WTA made $900. The MLB Totals made $700 and NRL lost $750. So a very bad week for the Sportpunter service and the worst week ever for my dailyprofit subscribers. One part of the service is based of Sportpunter line bets and as only 1 won this week, all members suffered. I now know how bad tipsters feel when they have a losing week.
This week I won’t bash ClubGowi too much, he did make $2,600. By now you know my thoughts on his service. In short his results are not based in reality, but it is a winning service long-term. But we are talking in the 2-5% range at best. Now if he said this on the website and showed proof, I would be his biggest fan. Instead he states a 13.64% ROI on his site. Today I read the most in-depth article on the service by Mat who writes the Sporting Value blog. If you have thought about joining the service then you should read that post. It will give a much fairer reflection of the service then me or Keith show. Mat has gone into great details and it’s highly recommended reading.
Golf added more losses this week with Jason Kelly down $200 and Betswot losing $725. Soccer also continued its dull start to the season with Owltips losing $1,000 which should have been more but prices on some games never rebounded. I’m not sure if I will continue after this one month trial, while it is clear he works hard to try and get the best odds for his clients, I’m just not sure if it will be worth my time and effort for the season. I can’t base my decision of results as there are too few bets, so I need to base it off how the service is run, and how close I can get to the recorded results. Football Elite had his first 3 bets, all losers for a $1,500 loss.
In other news, Skeeve has started his own blog. I look forward to reading his articles. I’m sure we will disagree on a great many things in the years ahead (haha).
So another week where I touched parity before I fell off a cliff again. It’s never fun being in a big negative for extended periods of time. With the start of the soccer betting season a few weeks away, I will be starting what has historically been the worst betting period with an already substantial loss. Ahh, betting is fun isn’t it. Until next week.
[mc4wp_form]
Total Loss for the week was $21,085.25
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $883,950.00
Profit/Loss: $(25,051.40)
POT: -2.83%
Bets Placed: 1158
Won: 515
Lost: 573
Half Payout: 8
Refunded: 62
Winning %: 47.3%
Total profit per day: $322,473.44 / 1511 = $213.41
Total Turnover: $15,226,693.37
Total ROI: 2.12%
ATP – SP $178,370.00 $(19,924.62) -11.2%
week profit/loss: -2127.45
WTA – SP $123,744.00 $274.32 0.2%
week profit/loss: 914.03
AFL H2H – SP $32,161.00 $12,110.54 37.7%
week profit/loss: 1021.44
AFL Line – SP $175,781.00 $(32,770.79) -18.6%
week profit/loss: -20125
SP MLB $122,550.00 $(4,042.31) -3.3%
week profit/loss: 673.20
NRL SP $17,999.00 $5,912.10 32.8%
week profit/loss: -752.25
ClubGowi $77,849.00 $10,362.95 13.3%
week profit/loss: 2610.85
GOWI $2,157.00 $869.00 40.3%
week profit/loss: 0
Diamond Edge $75,000.00 $9,834.50 13.1%
week profit/loss: 1659.50
PCG $51,492.00 $1,368.41 2.7%
week profit/loss: -1570.57
Jason Kelly Golf $2,416.00 $(1,816.00) -75.2%
week profit/loss: -191
Betswot $4,153.00 $(2,773.00) -66.8%
week profit/loss: -725
OwlTips $5,900.00 $(2,285.00) -38.7%
week profit/loss: -973
FB Elite $2,000.00 $(1,500.00) -75.0%
week profit/loss: -1500