Another quick update this week as I am snowed under with the dailyprofit service and life in general. A similar week to last week, where the overall loss was close to $20,000 before a Sunday night fightback to bring it back into profit for the week. Not really going anywhere at the moment, but I guess that’s better then losing. I have over 100 articles I want to write in my to do list and I hope to get to them one day. Sadly that day isn’t today (or anytime in the near future).
ATP is really doing my head in, another massive loss this week and now it looks like after just a few months Jonno has been convinced to go back to the old model. I’m not sure this is the right thing as the old model showed over a very long period that it was not performing, whereas we have barely given this new one 3 months. Nothing much I can do now but take the loss and figure out if I will continue to follow something that has shown no signs of making a profit for a very long time. This weeks losses were $7,300 and the WTA made $400. AFL didn’t really go anywhere either this week, but I was reminded off the value of getting the best possible lines with AFL, as St Kilda once again beat their line by half a point. Over H2H and Line bets, AFL made $3,400. After the shocking week last week, the SP baseball model recouped half those losses by making $4,600. NRL continues on its merry ways adding a further $1,500 profit and I continue to kick myself for not following with larger stakes.
ClubGOWI lost $2,500 and lately it seems that the bets where the odds do not rebound are starting to win a lot more, so I am missing the winning bets and getting on the losing ones. Thanks to my awesome spreadsheet I can now record the best odds at the start of the match, and put those bets I do not get on because of unattainable prices as a refund and record how Keith himself would have gone. I can now see what my real profit is and what it would have been if I could bet at the “mythical odds”. Right now over a month and a bit, Keith is $5,000 better off then me if he was betting the same $400 per unit stake size as I do. Like I have said many times before, it’s a profitable service over a very long time frame, but take his so called official results, half them, then half them again, and you are then in the ballpark of what you can hope to achieve.
The two other Football services currently running are Owltips and Football Elite. Owltips has not had a great start, and luckily I could get nowhere near the posted odds so missed some losers. I have paid for just 1 month for this service and depending on how close I can get to the odds will see me either stay or leave. So far it does not look good, but I believe they were testing new times to bet and it was a lower league for the first week. Football Elite has no such worries with the odds, sometimes I beat them, sometimes I don’t, but it usually averages out to a 1-2% worse odds. His first bet this season was a push. Mat (football Elite) has also offered a new pricing structure I had read of before but had not seen. You could pay for a full year of service for £179 or you could pay £100 upfront and then an extra £100 every time 10 points of profit have been reached. I am sticking with last years stakes of 1k per point, so if I make $10,000 profit, I will need to pay Mat an extra £100, then if I hit $20,000, all up I will have paid him £300. I like this way of paying, as my success becomes his success. I hope to pay him at least £300 or more this season.
Finally the Golf and Baseball. Jason Kelly lost $400 and Betswot lost $325. The good news is Rory winning again has pretty much wrapped up the ClubGOWI long term bet for the race to Dubai winner. That will add a very welcome $6,000 profit in November. Luckily for me I managed to match his recorded odds on that one. Diamond Edge has been on fire the past few weeks, adding $3,300 over the past 7 days and PCG added $900. I will need to see the release times for the upcoming NFL season, but in all likelihood I will need to drop this service based purely on my sleep patterns.
That’s it for another week. Still holding out hope for a strong AFL finish and to have the bank close to $50,000 profit before the football season gets into full swing in a month.
[mc4wp_form]
Total Profit for the week was $3,301.06
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $765,709.00
Profit/Loss: $(3,966.15)
POT: -0.52%
Bets Placed: 994
Won: 447
Lost: 490
Half Payout: 7
Refunded: 50
Winning %: 47.7%
Total profit per day: $343,558.69 / 1504 = $228.42
Total Turnover: $15,108,452.37
Total ROI: 2.27%
ATP – SP $164,064.00 $(17,797.17) -10.8%
week profit/loss: -7243.48
WTA – SP $107,952.00 $(639.71) -0.6%
week profit/loss: 386.67
AFL H2H – SP $27,024.00 $11,089.10 41.0%
week profit/loss: 2552
AFL Line – SP $147,106.00 $(12,645.79) -8.6%
week profit/loss: 814.75
SP MLB $107,667.00 $(4,715.51) -4.4%
week profit/loss: 4626.57
NRL SP $15,599.00 $6,664.35 42.7%
week profit/loss: 1483.05
ClubGowi $66,249.00 $7,752.10 11.7%
week profit/loss: -2499
GOWI $2,157.00 $869.00 40.3%
week profit/loss: 0
Diamond Edge $63,500.00 $8,175.00 12.9%
week profit/loss: 3318.50
PCG $43,360.00 $2,938.98 6.8%
week profit/loss: 899
Jason Kelly Golf $2,225.00 $(1,625.00) -73.0%
week profit/loss: -400
Betswot $3,428.00 $(2,048.00) -59.7%
week profit/loss: -325
OwlTips $2,500.00 $(1,312.00) -52.5%
week profit/loss: -312
FB Elite $500.00 $- 0.0%
week profit/loss: 0