It’s been an entire year since I made a monthly profit. 1 year… Talk about long term thinking. It’s been a very difficult year (betting wise) and writing these monthly reviews has not been easy. So it is amazing to be able to write my first profitable monthly review in the past year.
The last profitable month was in March of 2016 where I made $24,780.00. My turnover a year ago was also 3 times more than it is now. Without Soccer and a number of other sports, the turnover will be much smaller and the variance much higher. Since that update until the end of February 2017, I lost a total of $200,360.00.
March saw the return of the NRL and AFL models. The AFL model has been what I have built my profits on since day 1. Last year it had its first ever losing year for me, and as happens, it was also the biggest bank I had ever used for the AFL model. This year I increased my bank on the NRL and lowered my bank on the AFL. I’ll still be betting 3x more on the AFL, but it used to be 6 times as much.
The month started slowly, but went on a run where it felt like every single big bet won.
In total, March saw turnover of $180,460.00 for a profit of $61,700.00 at 34.19% ROI.
I placed 137 bets over the month and won 74, lost 62 and 1 refunded.
NRL
I am betting the H2H markets for the NRL, these are historically much stronger than the Line bets. I’ve also begun to bet the Totals at lower stakes. This month saw 26 bets for 14 wins on the H2H markets and a profit of $21,000.00 at 37.4% ROI. I’ve placed 9 bets on the totals and won 5 of them. But the largest bet by far was on an overs bet that I should never have placed. As the model does not take weather into account, there was a huge bet on a game with torrential rain. I’ll have to keep an eye on the weather before placing these bets.
AFL
I’m not going to lie, I’m apprehensive about the model this year. It didn’t help when the first bet of the season was a massive bet on a team that lost us a sh*tload last season. Happily for me (and Dailyprofit members), that bet won and almost every other bet so far this season has also won.
Last season my bank for the Line and H2H bets was $150,000 and each had differing kelly levels. This year I have scaled the bank back to $100,000 and increased my H2H bets to be more in line with the Line betting. I’ll also be using a static bank this season. While I believe last year was just a blip, there is no harm in being sure before upping stakes again.
In these sort of situations, I take in the potential upside and downside and weight them up. So if I had kept my bank the same as last year and the model performed exactly the same, my bank would be very close to destroyed. If it reverted to its historic returns, I’d make about $150,000 profit. By lowering my bank, I remove the chance of busting my entire bank at a potential cost of just $50,000. A risk/reward ratio I am happy to take.
This month started with a bang. 10 of the 14 line bets hit. 2 lost by less than a kick and most of the wins covered easily. I turned over $45,180.00 on the line bets and won $25,580.00 for a 56.6% ROI. We also hit 6 of 9 H2H bets, I turned over $20,150.00 and made a profit of $8,520.00 for a 42.3% ROI.
I’ve have to mention Centrebet for taking my bets so far this year. They have replaced my reliance on Pinnacle and offer better odds. Who knows how long they can last offering the Powerbet prices, but me and Dailyprofit members are loving it right now.
To get the exact same plays as I am betting on, you can join the Dailyprofit service here.
NBA
March saw me finish up on NBA betting for the year. I stopped Totals betting at the start of the year and that has cost me well over $20,000 profit, and I’m sure the H2H bets will continue to do well. But I set the rules at the start of the season based on historical returns and I’m sticking to them.
March saw turnover of $51,940.00 on the Head to Head bets for $6,980.00 profit at 13.4% ROI. For the 2016/17 NBA season, I turned over $435,210.00 and made a profit of $19,500.00 at 4.48% ROI.
You don’t know how good it feels to use so much green in a blog post. With the NBA ended, my betting is now only on the AFL and NRL. So the variance is going to be huge. I know that returns like this only come around rarely, and this return in no way means I am back on the road to profits again, but it is a very welcome relief and I’ll enjoy it for a few minutes before doing the same thing I have done for the past 6 and a half years.
I can only hope that the AFL and NRL models are back to what they do best, produce bets with a massive edge over the market.
Total Profit for the month was $61,700.00
[mc4wp_form]
Stats Year 7
Total bet amount: $1,599,060.00
Profit/Loss: -$87,580.00
POT: -5.48%
Bets Placed: 978
Won: 451
Lost: 515
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 11
Winning %: 46.7%
Total profit per day: $258,840.00 / 2465 = $105.00
Total Turnover: $29,625,890.00
Total ROI: 0.87%
| Sport/Tipster | Wagered | Profit/Loss | ROI | Mar P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL Line | $290,950.00 | -$17,540.00 | -6.0% | $0 |
| NFL Totals | $281,460.00 | -$45,050.00 | -16.0% | $0 |
| NBA Totals | $203,020.00 | $22,900.00 | 11.3% | $0 |
| NBA H2H | $232,190.00 | -$3,400.00 | -1.5% | $6,980.00 |
| AFL H2H | $131,160.00 | -$32,260.00 | -24.6% | $8,520.00 |
| AFL Line | $293,660.00 | -$35,890.00 | -12.2% | $25,580.00 |
| NRL H2H | $155,170.00 | $28,400.00 | 18.3% | $21,000.00 |
| NRL Totals | $7,090.00 | -$380.00 | -5.4% | -$380.00 |
| Super Rugby | $1,710.00 | -$1,710.00 | -100.0% | $0 |
| Mistakes | $2,650.00 | -$2,650.00 | -100.0% | $0 |
| Total | $1,599,060.00 | -$87,580.00 | -5.48% | $61,700.00 |