Back to back losing weeks and from a position of profit just a fortnight ago to back into the doldrums. I keep getting up off the canvas and then floored again and again. Gambling is such an alluring mistress, she gives you a hint of what could be and then the second you start believing, she pulls the rug from under you and you’re lying on your back struggling like the turtle you are. I’ll once again shift from side to side until I can get back on my feet and try again. Ok, I’ll admit I took that turtle metaphor a little far, but I haven’t had my coffee this morning. I actually saved a heap this week thankfully because odds never recovered for TFA and Winabob. Sportpunter is going through a bit of a lull also. Just gotto keep placing those bets and trust in the hard work and analysis I did prior to signing up to these services.
Sportpunter first and NBL has fallen off a cliff after its amazing start. Pretty much back to break even now. Hoping for a very quick correction, as with very few bets a season, variance can really bite me in the arse if I’m unlucky. $6,000 lost this week. As the NFL season moves into week 11, the SP model has historically done well with the line bets from this point on in the season. It’s started well with a $1,175 profit at 14.7% ROI. The totals broke even. NHL lost $1,300 and the NBA H2H bets have also dropped off after an amazing first week. This week they lost $6,800 but the NBA totals recovered most of that with $5,750 profit. All up a loss of $7,150 from the SP service this week.
ClubGOWI had an absolutely shocking week, dropping $4,100, but again it should have been more, but odds never recovered. In his last email he once again offered a discount for a years service. I’ll be taking that up, as I have repeatedly said, it’s a service that is going to return me 2%-4% long term and I’ll follow any service that can do that. The added benefit is that I can also back the opposite when odds go out too far and this has proven to be a real benefit.
PCG lost $1,300 and Jason Kelly lost $325. Still looking for that elusive first big win for this service.
There wasn’t much soccer action this week, but there were still a lot of bets for TFA and Winabob. Well, there were a lot of advised bets, just not at odds I could get. TFA lost $400 and Winabob made a profit for the first time ever with $600 added to my bank. Mind you if I was able to get on even half of these bets I would be in very negative territory. A tiny $200 profit for FBI Combo picks was also helped by not getting odds. My little experiment continues and added $1,550 profit this week, but on the other hand, my personal bets lost $1,050. I believe the issue with TFA and Winabob is that they are very heavily slanted towards away bets, and TFA started when this bias was massive, so the results were very impressive the first few season, as these things tend to do, each season a slant comes into play and last season and for all of this season so far, it has been the home bets that keep winning. The question I have to ask myself is if the winning years will outweigh the losses from these losing years? In a bad season, I can expect to lose over $50,000. The upside is that if the aways start winning again, then the potential upside is well over $100,000 profit. So I need to hope the past year and a half bias towards home teams is going to change pretty soon. We will have to wait and see.
Onto much more positive news and the Dailyprofit service has now surpassed 100 very happy members. We have sorted out the structure for the SP section in regards to the American sports and are now happy to take anybody who thinks the service will be of benefit to them. We do things a little differently (READ:CORRECTLY) at Dailyprofit.
Odds recording has been a real problem with almost every tipster I have followed. I get it, it’s like when you are dating, you are trying to attract a partner (customer) and only want to show the best side of yourself. You put up that one great picture of you where the light catches you just right and you look that little bit like James Dean (Tom cruise, Brad Pitt, whoever). The issues arise when you actually have to show your true self and then your date (Customer) is none too impressed when they see the real you. At Dailyprofit we do the opposite, we show the god awful picture on our profile and then when someone goes on a date with us(joins the service), they are ecstatic that we are actually amazingly good looking, smart and very very good in the sack. How we do this is simple. We take 3 random members and they send me the odds they got for each and every tip. Some members get on straight away, some wait till just before the game, others just bet whenever they can. Some have heaps of bookies, others only have a few. We take these odds and record at the average price. Anyone who then puts any effort in at all, will handily beat the quoted prices. What this means is that the service will never look brilliant, if I can show a 2% ROI then I’ll be ecstatic, but once customers are in, they will happily enjoy a 5% or more better result.
So what has the result been? Well we started with 20 beta testers about 4 months ago, I have posted 4 times about the service on twitter since then. Through word of mouth alone we have grown 5x in the 2 months where I have opened up the service. I really am so pleased that I can not only show tipsters how it should be done, but also make my customers so happy with the results that they tell their friends. I’ll end this clearly one sided view of my service with the dailyprofit profit graph. Please note, this return is based on the VIP package (which is both the Value and SP service), but only Australians and New Zealanders can take advantage of the Value picks.
Total Loss for the week was $11,645.44
[mc4wp_form]
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $2,638,686.93
Profit/Loss: -$30,084.69
POT: -1.14%
Bets Placed: 3890
Won: 1388
Lost: 1843
Half Payout: 34
Refunded: 625
Winning %: 43.0%
Total profit per day: $317,440.15 / 1602 = $198.15
Total Turnover: $16,981,430.30
Total ROI: 1.87%
NBL Totals $26,810.00 $(15,976.69) -59.6%
week profit/loss: -4850
NBL Line $70,737.00 $17,160.84 24.3%
week profit/loss: -1200
NFL Totals $74,498.00 $12,171.70 16.3%
week profit/loss: 31.99
NFL Line $8,011.00 $1,175.40 14.7%
week profit/loss: 1175.40
NHL Totals $56,984.00 $9,816.80 17.2%
week profit/loss: -1284.18
NBA Totals $107,751.00 $18,774.58 17.4%
week profit/loss: 5756.08
NBA H2H $68,592.00 $1,109.19 1.6%
week profit/loss: -6786.59
ClubGowi $323,803.00 $8,448.59 2.6%
week profit/loss: -3115
GOWI $10,951.00 $(3,360.00) -30.7%
week profit/loss: -1000
PCG $151,934.00 $(5,148.25) -3.4%
week profit/loss: -1284.54
Jason Kelly Golf $8,646.93 $(7,256.93) -83.9%
week profit/loss: -325
Betswot $8,313.00 $(6,558.00) -78.9%
week profit/loss: 0
FB Elite $47,250.00 $6,422.50 13.6%
week profit/loss: 0
Football Value $20,000.00 $(205.00) -1.0%
week profit/loss: 0
TFA 21 $102,514.00 $(8,574.30) -8.4%
week profit/loss: -525
TFA 41 $105,300.00 $(11,886.00) -11.3%
week profit/loss: 645
6-21-31 $62,107.00 $685.72 1.1%
week profit/loss: 480
D1-D6 $31,500.00 $(90.00) -0.3%
week profit/loss: -1000
E1-E6 $18,740.00 $7,935.00 42.3%
week profit/loss: 0
Mike Lindley $26,500.00 $(3,800.00) -14.3%
week profit/loss: 735
WINABOBATOO $115,176.00 $(12,362.60) -10.7%
week profit/loss: -140.40
FBI combo $56,500.00 $1,807.00 3.2%
week profit/loss: 230
FBI Euro $32,000.00 $(5,965.00) -18.6%
week profit/loss: 0
Odds pushed out $14,500.00 $2,660.50 18.3%
week profit/loss: 1570
Personal $9,556.00 $(4,243.64) -44.4%
week profit/loss: -1040
Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0