Nov 12th – Nov 18th -$11,645.44
Back to back losing weeks and from a position of profit just a fortnight ago to back into the doldrums. I keep getting up off the canvas and then floored again and again. Gambling is such an alluring mistress, she gives you a hint of what could be and then the second you start believing, she pulls the rug from under you and you’re lying on your back struggling like the turtle you are. I’ll once again shift from side to side until I can get back on my feet and try again. Ok, I’ll admit I took that turtle metaphor a little far, but I haven’t had my coffee this morning. I actually saved a heap this week thankfully because odds never recovered for TFA and Winabob. Sportpunter is going through a bit of a lull also. Just gotto keep placing those bets and trust in the hard work and analysis I did prior to signing up to these services.
Sportpunter first and NBL has fallen off a cliff after its amazing start. Pretty much back to break even now. Hoping for a very quick correction, as with very few bets a season, variance can really bite me in the arse if I’m unlucky. $6,000 lost this week. As the NFL season moves into week 11, the SP model has historically done well with the line bets from this point on in the season. It’s started well with a $1,175 profit at 14.7% ROI. The totals broke even. NHL lost $1,300 and the NBA H2H bets have also dropped off after an amazing first week. This week they lost $6,800 but the NBA totals recovered most of that with $5,750 profit. All up a loss of $7,150 from the SP service this week.
ClubGOWI had an absolutely shocking week, dropping $4,100, but again it should have been more, but odds never recovered. In his last email he once again offered a discount for a years service. I’ll be taking that up, as I have repeatedly said, it’s a service that is going to return me 2%-4% long term and I’ll follow any service that can do that. The added benefit is that I can also back the opposite when odds go out too far and this has proven to be a real benefit.
PCG lost $1,300 and Jason Kelly lost $325. Still looking for that elusive first big win for this service.
There wasn’t much soccer action this week, but there were still a lot of bets for TFA and Winabob. Well, there were a lot of advised bets, just not at odds I could get. TFA lost $400 and Winabob made a profit for the first time ever with $600 added to my bank. Mind you if I was able to get on even half of these bets I would be in very negative territory. A tiny $200 profit for FBI Combo picks was also helped by not getting odds. My little experiment continues and added $1,550 profit this week, but on the other hand, my personal bets lost $1,050. I believe the issue with TFA and Winabob is that they are very heavily slanted towards away bets, and TFA started when this bias was massive, so the results were very impressive the first few season, as these things tend to do, each season a slant comes into play and last season and for all of this season so far, it has been the home bets that keep winning. The question I have to ask myself is if the winning years will outweigh the losses from these losing years? In a bad season, I can expect to lose over $50,000. The upside is that if the aways start winning again, then the potential upside is well over $100,000 profit. So I need to hope the past year and a half bias towards home teams is going to change pretty soon. We will have to wait and see.
Onto much more positive news and the Dailyprofit service has now surpassed 100 very happy members. We have sorted out the structure for the SP section in regards to the American sports and are now happy to take anybody who thinks the service will be of benefit to them. We do things a little differently (READ:CORRECTLY) at Dailyprofit.
Odds recording has been a real problem with almost every tipster I have followed. I get it, it’s like when you are dating, you are trying to attract a partner (customer) and only want to show the best side of yourself. You put up that one great picture of you where the light catches you just right and you look that little bit like James Dean (Tom cruise, Brad Pitt, whoever). The issues arise when you actually have to show your true self and then your date (Customer) is none too impressed when they see the real you. At Dailyprofit we do the opposite, we show the god awful picture on our profile and then when someone goes on a date with us(joins the service), they are ecstatic that we are actually amazingly good looking, smart and very very good in the sack. How we do this is simple. We take 3 random members and they send me the odds they got for each and every tip. Some members get on straight away, some wait till just before the game, others just bet whenever they can. Some have heaps of bookies, others only have a few. We take these odds and record at the average price. Anyone who then puts any effort in at all, will handily beat the quoted prices. What this means is that the service will never look brilliant, if I can show a 2% ROI then I’ll be ecstatic, but once customers are in, they will happily enjoy a 5% or more better result.
So what has the result been? Well we started with 20 beta testers about 4 months ago, I have posted 4 times about the service on twitter since then. Through word of mouth alone we have grown 5x in the 2 months where I have opened up the service. I really am so pleased that I can not only show tipsters how it should be done, but also make my customers so happy with the results that they tell their friends. I’ll end this clearly one sided view of my service with the dailyprofit profit graph. Please note, this return is based on the VIP package (which is both the Value and SP service), but only Australians and New Zealanders can take advantage of the Value picks.
Total Loss for the week was $11,645.44
[mc4wp_form]
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $2,638,686.93
Profit/Loss: -$30,084.69
POT: -1.14%
Bets Placed: 3890
Won: 1388
Lost: 1843
Half Payout: 34
Refunded: 625
Winning %: 43.0%
Total profit per day: $317,440.15 / 1602 = $198.15
Total Turnover: $16,981,430.30
Total ROI: 1.87%
NBL Totals $26,810.00 $(15,976.69) -59.6%
week profit/loss: -4850
NBL Line $70,737.00 $17,160.84 24.3%
week profit/loss: -1200
NFL Totals $74,498.00 $12,171.70 16.3%
week profit/loss: 31.99
NFL Line $8,011.00 $1,175.40 14.7%
week profit/loss: 1175.40
NHL Totals $56,984.00 $9,816.80 17.2%
week profit/loss: -1284.18
NBA Totals $107,751.00 $18,774.58 17.4%
week profit/loss: 5756.08
NBA H2H $68,592.00 $1,109.19 1.6%
week profit/loss: -6786.59
ClubGowi $323,803.00 $8,448.59 2.6%
week profit/loss: -3115
GOWI $10,951.00 $(3,360.00) -30.7%
week profit/loss: -1000
PCG $151,934.00 $(5,148.25) -3.4%
week profit/loss: -1284.54
Jason Kelly Golf $8,646.93 $(7,256.93) -83.9%
week profit/loss: -325
Betswot $8,313.00 $(6,558.00) -78.9%
week profit/loss: 0
FB Elite $47,250.00 $6,422.50 13.6%
week profit/loss: 0
Football Value $20,000.00 $(205.00) -1.0%
week profit/loss: 0
TFA 21 $102,514.00 $(8,574.30) -8.4%
week profit/loss: -525
TFA 41 $105,300.00 $(11,886.00) -11.3%
week profit/loss: 645
6-21-31 $62,107.00 $685.72 1.1%
week profit/loss: 480
D1-D6 $31,500.00 $(90.00) -0.3%
week profit/loss: -1000
E1-E6 $18,740.00 $7,935.00 42.3%
week profit/loss: 0
Mike Lindley $26,500.00 $(3,800.00) -14.3%
week profit/loss: 735
WINABOBATOO $115,176.00 $(12,362.60) -10.7%
week profit/loss: -140.40
FBI combo $56,500.00 $1,807.00 3.2%
week profit/loss: 230
FBI Euro $32,000.00 $(5,965.00) -18.6%
week profit/loss: 0
Odds pushed out $14,500.00 $2,660.50 18.3%
week profit/loss: 1570
Personal $9,556.00 $(4,243.64) -44.4%
week profit/loss: -1040
Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0
Loved the service for the 1 month trial I gave it mate. I will see you in the new year for the footy!
Cheers Aaron,
The biggest profit is def during the Feb-Sep period for the SP stuff. But we think we can keep the profits ticking over in the off season also.
Just curious, do you even look at PCG’s raw numbers in the websire or do you just take the bets recommended in the email ?
And about Dailyprofit I have to say that it looks really interesting but one thing that has kept me from joining is this: is it worth it if I might not take any of the horse racing bets ?
I honestly have no idea about this “sport” and I’m not sure if I’ll be able to find odds for those, plus the time difference might be a problem.
Hey Mariano,
No, I use it as it is advertised, which I would assume the majority do as well. I just bet what the emails have, which is exactly where the figures are based of. Tom has made the point that the raw numbers are going great, but I nor most others would not have signed up for them. I will be looking into them off course.
There are no Horse racing bets for dailyprofit SP members. The SP service is the american sports which are easy to get on and then the aussie sports (AFL,NRL,S15), which can be bet anywhere as well. Not sure where you thought horse racing was?
Yes, like you said, there seems to be a lot of value on the raw numbers but it must be tough to filter what to bet and what not to and I guess you could end up with lots of bets you shouldn’t take if you don’t know the teams news.
About Dailyprofit , I just downloaded the excel results sheet and saw horse racing bets there but now I took a closer look and I see that those are for the “Value” service and if I want to join, I should go for the SP service.
After a bad week, I guess it could be a good idea to join right now.. 🙂
The spreadsheet is great as if you go to the performance summary sheet, you can filter things and see what sections have made profit. It’s never a good or bad time to join a service. If you think like that then this service is not a good fit for you. It will have losing runs and you could easily join at a terrible time or a great time.
Soon I am going to make the minimum signup length 3 months as I don’t want any members who are likely to quit after a bad week.
Yep, I’ve been playing with the spreadsheet while I was writing my previous answer and I saw what you mean.
I was just joking about when to join. I’ve been with GOWI for almost 2 years (as well as other services) and I already extended my subscription for another one, so I know what it is to go through good and bad times.
Joining right now and I’m planning to stay for the long run.
Welcome. If you plan to stay for a while then start planning how to spend those profits :).
Good idea, Maybe a few years from now a trip around the world to thank you in person 😛
A nice goal. On my bucket list is to watch all the worlds biggest sporting events.. Hopefully I can get a few subscribers to join me.
Yep I believe you can as well. Life is pretty busy for me atm with shift work/new bub due in 2 weeks so unfortunately I don’t really have the time to be place lots of bets each day which is the only reason I didn’t renew. Will defo be back after xmas for the long haul!
Congrats on the upcoming baby, You’re going to have even less time very very soon.
Tell me about it. I’ve already got a very active 2.5 year old lol
Ahh, you know the drill then. Haha
Hi Steve,
I’ve searched a bit and cannot find info on what’s the difference between the Dailyprofit Sportpunter package and a direct Sportpunter subscription for the appropriate sports. I imagine at the very least the Dailyprofit recommendations are released later. Are there any further differences?
Thanks!
They are very different.
1. We release one hour or more after he releases to his full paying subscribers.
2. I do not give out probabilities, it is my take on the model (and flat stakes betting)
3. It is much much cheaper.
It’s a completely different experience, I would say anyone who could afford the SP models to get them, this is catering for the smaller punter. The returns will be lower, but it is a good start into betting and will return some profit.
I don’t get the hype with GOWI. It seems like you pay money for tips but can’t be annoyed if every bet loses because it was your choice to place the bet.
haha, yep. Here are our tips, but do your own research on them. We are merely a newsletter.
This guy is smoke and mirrors. I’m waiting to see if he’ll be profitable for football/soccer this year. Seems like churning, at the moment.
I won’t be renewing when it falls due. Too much effort for a 2% return !
Raw numbers are advertised as a product you get and well over 50% of my subscribers sign up primarily for the raw numbers and just do their own capping or just take the raw numbers point blank. They’re 79-40 +25.11 Units right now in NHL, 34-19 +14.05% now in NBA, ended up 70 units in MLB and NFL and NCAAF both hitting over 55% ATS on the high edges. Can you mention these things too? Fair and accurate reporting I think is what your readers are after.
Hey Tom, I don’t mention them as I don’t use them. I mention the results based on what I use and that is simply the advised bets in the email. In the future I may look at the raw numbers, but I signed up off the results I saw in your email newsletter.
The problem I see with many tipsters is they have a few different systems running and like to draw attention to the ones performing at the moment and not talk about non profitable systems.
I can only “report” (and understand here, this is just my experience and everyone will have a different experience when following tipsters) on what I am betting on.
It isn’t like that at all Steve (only reporting what is hot)…the raw numbers are the epitome of my service. I have the term “raw numbers” up everywhere on the site including on the paypal sign up link. Again, over 50% of my users sign up for the Raw Numbers. Even since I told you about them, they’re up even more. You made no mention…
Hi Tom,
once again. I’ve made no mention because I do not track or follow these. If I did and was winning then I would. Simple as that. Next season I will look to move across to these and then if they do perform as well as you have said then there will be plenty of very positive comments on the blog. As always, I can only go off my results.