1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) 2021 Review +$30,760.00
Over the 10 and a half years I have been writing this blog, I have posted my weekly results for more than half a decade, before moving to Monthly results for the past few years. This next decade, I’ll be moving to Quarterly reports. This is the first-ever Quarterly report and will cover Q1 (January to March). I’m sure in another few years I will move to yearly updates.
December was a terrible month where I lost almost $30k. It has taken the past 3 months to recoup that loss. For me and the vast majority of Dailyprofit members (who place the same bets as me), it was just another drawdown that we eventually regained. But December was also the time Jonno and I were a bit more public on social media and with a few live youtube videos. This saw a lot of new members join the service (around 40). As is always the case, no matter how often I try and tell new members they need to set up a certain size bank and that drawdowns are 100% guaranteed, people never learn. They are looking for fast profits. With the exception of a few, after the horror December/January period, all these newbies left the service. If they had stuck around, they would now be in profit, and better yet, would have been through their first significant drawdown and know how to deal with the next one. I have no sympathy for those with short attention spans and expectations of immediate profit. If that is you, feel free to lose your money in crypto altcoins (at least there you have a better chance).
You would have noticed that I have not created much content this year, and my custom yearly update was not done. There are a few reasons for that. Currently, my interests are elsewhere and I don’t seem to have time to write. If you follow me on Twitter, I’m sure you know where I am spending my time (and wasting my money). The other reason (and the main one), was that we all went through a horrendous 2020, and 2021 while showing better signs is no walk in the park either. I was fortunate that a number of investments I made 7+ years ago started to bear fruit in 2020. If you have followed my story over the past decade, you know I started with a goal to make $2 million in 10 years so I could retire with a 4% withdrawal rate ($80k a year). I guess Bill Gates said it best:
Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.
While I got the lump sum in 1 year, it was because of work I did 10 years prior. Without giving out figures (which I might eventually do), let me just say that I overshot by a multiple that I can’t even fathom. This was at the end of 2020 when Bitcoin was also only $30k, since then it has doubled again. But even if I had never invested in Cryptocurrencies, I still would have overshot my target with my other investments.
So woop woop to me, it’s hard to share my success publically, even though it was a 10-year overnight success :). Nobody really looks at the 10 years of prior work put in, at least I have this blog as proof of work (with sports betting at least).
Ok, onto how I went with Sports Betting over the past 3 months.
I placed 278 bets in Q1 and won 140 of them (50.4%). I turned over $360,030.00 and made a profit of $30,760.00 at 8.54% ROI. We can see that Jan and the first half of Feb were break-even (and mostly underwater). From the 18th of Feb, the NBA Totals took off. The funny thing was, all year we had been smashing the closing line on the NBA bets, but it wasn’t until recently that they have started to pay off. We also saw the last few NFL games in Q1 and the start of the NRL and AFL. I’ve also been having some fun with small stakes on NBA multis each day.
NFL
There were 7 more NFL bets placed in 2021. Only 2 of them won.
I turned over $20,600.00 on Totals bets and lost $7,230.00 at -35.1% ROI.
It ended up being a very poor NFL season. Between Line and Totals bets, I placed 119 bets and won 53 of them. I turned over $289,090.00 and lost $29,340.00 at -10.15% ROI.
NBA
For the past 5 years, the NBA totals have been the greatest sports betting model in the world, nothing comes close. Every year it has started on fire, apart from this year. While it continued to smash the closing line the majority of the time, it was not producing winners. But we all know that the only real metric you need to track is how often you beat the closing line, and the results will take care of themselves. This was the case here as Q1 has seen the model revert to its old winning ways.
I placed 211 Totals bets and won 117 of them (55.5%) in Q1. I turned over $325,610.00 and made a profit of $34,240.00 at a 10.5% ROI.
That brings the 20/21 NBA season’s current profit to $19,760.00 at 5.2% over 240 bets.
I’m also having some fun with $100 multis each day with the NBA. I’ve turned over $4,000 and made $790.00 this quarter at 19.8% ROI.
AFL and NRL
We are early in both sports season’s and I am betting 1/10th the size I do on the NBA for these two sports. Both have gotten off to pretty great starts over the small number of bets.
AFL has seen 4 wins from 8 bets with turnover of $2,140.00 and a profit of $1,030.00 at 48.1% ROI
NRL has seen 7 wins from 12 bets with turnover of $7,680.00 and a profit of $1,930.00 at a 25.1% ROI.
Still early days, and still impossible to get any sort of decent bet on big markets with Australian bookmakers. This is unlikely to ever change.
Next Quarter.
The NBA season will be into their playoffs at the end of Q2, and I feel the good results will continue until the end of the season.
We will be halfway through the NRL and AFL season at this stage as well, and that’s usually been a good time to stop following the models.
As always, I continue to simply spend as little time possible betting for the largest rewards. The answer has and will always be to follow the Sportpunter models.
Total Profit for Q1 2021 was $30,760.00
If you want to lose lots of money short term (but make a profit long-term) betting on sport like me and 110 others, feel free to join the Dailyprofit service 🙂
Sign up for my mailing list to keep following my journey.
Stats Year 8/9/10/11
Total bet amount: $5,300,380.00
Profit/Loss: $157,070.00
POT: 2.96%
Bets Placed: 3784
Won: 1915
Lost: 1822
Half Payout: 6
Refunded: 41
Winning %: 51.2%
Total profit per day: $485,650.00 / 3,926 = $123.70
Total Turnover: $35,548,600.00
Total ROI: 1.36%
| Sport/Tipster | Wagered | Profit/Loss | ROI | Jan - Mar P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFL H2H | $461,500.00 | -$3,110.00 | -0.70% | $1,030.00 |
| AFL Line | $452,680.00 | -$22,670.00 | -5.0% | $0.00 |
| NRL H2H | $752,820.00 | -$8,580.00 | -1.1% | $1,930.00 |
| NRL Totals | $79,240.00 | $1,780.00 | 2.2% | $0.00 |
| NBA Totals | $2,194,140.00 | $166,130.00 | 7.6% | $34,240.00 |
| NBA H2H | $208,240.00 | -$13,830.00 | -6.6% | $0.00 |
| MLB Totals | $9,250.00 | -$1,870.00 | -20.2% | $0.00 |
| NFL Totals | $705,180.00 | $44,110.00 | 6.3% | -$7,230.00 |
| NFL Line | $416,250.00 | -$5,470.00 | -1.3% | $0.00 |
| Mistakes | $16,280.00 | $590.00 | 3.6% | $0.00 |
| Multis | $4,800.00 | -$10.00 | -0.2% | $790.00 |
| Total | $5,300,380.00 | $157,070.00 | 2.96% | $30,760.00 |
Hi Steve,
When i put a bet size of $1500 at 1.38% advantage (52.802% strike rate at 1.92 odds) through a Kelly Calculator, allowing for half Kelly sizing, it says i need a bankroll of $331k.
This if i have 10 bets a day over 365 days a year would give me a profit of $75k.
Am i missing something?
It seems as though, coupled with 2.5K in fees, unless i can bet 365 days a year and maintain a 1.38% edge that the profit made with the bankroll required is poor.
Please explain as transparency is key in the tipping industry.
Hi Nick,
If I was anymore transparent in this industry, I’d be invisible 🙂
You can go back 10 and a half years on this blog, or see every single bet the service has provided on the DP results page.
Not sure where you got 1.38% from (I just realised you got it from my own personal results. These results include me testing out 20-30 other Tipsters over the past 10 years, all of who lost apart from Sportpunter), the DP service has a ROI of 1.95% over 8129 bets.
A few things on that result though, this includes every single bet we have given out on the site (for a few sports we advised members not to bet them as they were not winning models, but some members still wanted them and it would not be right to not record them). This also includes recording at odds easily attainable (Currently NBA Totals are recorded at 1.90 when 1.952 is a standard).
Members also follow each sport differently. For me, I (and members) know that NBA Totals is the current golden goose, so I bet 10x on that compared to the AFL and NRL. Each member figures out their own banks for each sport.
But lets just use your numbers as an example.
$331k Bank, $75k profit – 2.5k in fees = $72,500 profit.
$331k in a bank account = $3,310 profit per year (no risk)
$331k in stocks @ 8% return = $26,480 profit per year (med/high risk)
$331k in Dailyprofit = $72,500 (your number) (high risk)
Hope that helps.
Hi Steve,
Thanks for your prompt response. The numbers i used were from your bets with the resultant profit.
Part of my issue in understanding is when you suggest a 10x bet size on NBA totals. Quarter 1 without NBA totals, shows a loss of $9060.
I understand very well that some people like to leverage their advantage by investing bigger amounts when their edge is higher but 10X is fantasy. The narrative of 5 star specials etc etc reads well but is fantasy.
In blackjack which is a closed game (what has happened has bearing on what is likely to happen) a 10X or more bet sizing is normal as your edge can be calculated accurately, but in racing and sport where it’s not a closed game, you can only estimate your advantage
Why bet on anything else? I have a very intimate knowledge of betting. My income for the last 30 years has been from sports and race betting. To maintain a 55%+ strike rate on NBA totals is somewhere in the close to impossible range. The market won’t allow someone or in the case of your service, many someones to keep winning at that rate. Either (A) the market would adjust or (B) you’d be restricted bet size wise or (C) a combination of A and B. Anyway I slice and dice it, the edge you can have in sports betting changes constantly with the need to be nimble and adapt strategies is paramount.
Even at 7.6% advantage and using Full Kelly (way to risky for me……i’d never bet more than Half Kelly) you’d need $185K betting $15k (10x) as your bankroll.
Apart from Pinnacle or CRIS, I don’t know any bookmaker in the world who’d keep betting you that amount if you were winning. For that matter, i’m very uncertain that the above mentioned bookmakers would bet you those amounts anyway.
Kind Regards.
The NBA Totals have been on the Dailyprofit site for 7 years now and another 10 odd years on the Sportpunter site.
Dailyprofit results show 9% ROI over 2703 bets and Sportpunter would be similar over many more thousand bets. Again, to very easy odds and totals to match and beat.
We have had many people over the years try and reverse engineer the model and we give out less and less data, but each year it consistently produces amazing results.
The 10x is my normal stake really, it just means I bet for fun on the AFL and NRL.
It’s the reason we have over 100 members paying a fair bit of money each year (and 80% now happy to pay a year in advance). But we are happy for you to feel it can’t be real 🙂
Ok,
I’ve extrapolated your last quarter turnover of NBA totals $2,194,140 to 7 years ( 14 quarters as they only play 6 months or 2 quarters per year) and come up with a total turnover of $30,717,960 which over 2703 bets is $11,364 per bet. Given that you stated a 9% profit over the period (7 years), that would mean a profit of $2,764,616 somewhat more than the $479k stated for the last 10 years.
My “BS” antennae is waving away madly. You’ve stated how transparent you are as to be invisible but your figures don’t stack up.
There’s not a bookmaker in the world (including Pinnacle and CRIS) who’d take that size action from a winning punter, let alone all your followers.
With 110 people paying $250k per annum (or thereabouts) for your tips, then you don’t actually have to win. I will say that you’ve got yourself a nice little (maybe not so little) tipping business. It’s crazy how tipping businesses can be so profitable. I’ve spoken over the years to many proprietors in the tipping business and to say “there’s one born every day” is such an understatement. With them telling me that they run multiple sites with many of their clients subscribing to many and sometimes all of their sites.
I cry “BS” and warn people to be very aware of the adage “if it’s too good to be true it probably is”.
Hey Nick,
Even a winning tipster isn’t going to make much. What do you know, I’ve been transparent about that as well.
https://www.daily25.com/how-much-does-a-tipster-service-make-dailyprofit-com-au-case-study/
Feel free to let people know it’s BS.
Congratulations on the big milestone Steve. Been enjoying the blog for many years (and the Twittah lately) and long may it continue. Nice to see the discipline and long term focus from the betting pay off in your other endeavours. Here’s to another decade of melting faces off.
Thanks Dean, it’s been a fun ride. The MBA I got via betting was better than any uni degree.
Here’s to another decade of finding value 🙂
“These results include me testing out 20-30 other Tipsters over the past 10 years, all of who lost apart from Sportpunter)”
This simply isn’t a true reflection. I ran the very successful Football Investor service for 10 years and you were a member during one of my most profitable periods and by your own admission, the service was not for you due to the UK time difference when I was releasing my bets. So it’s untrue to say my service was unprofitable just because you lost money sleeping when the bets were issued.
I see you never mention bet365 as your preferred bookie. Is there something we should know? And what bookie would you recommend before one subscribes to your monthly daily profit system ?
Bet365 will ban you eventually, like all the rest. If you win long term you are banned.
I always recommend having an account with every single bookie, you always need to get the best possible odds and totals while you can.
Some accounts will last much longer than others.
I still do not understand how you get those bet amounts into play on the NBA.
It’s not possible.
People have been telling me for 10 years it’s not possible to make a profit.
NBA markets are massive, my average bet size is like $1,400. If Pinnacle kept early prices, that was just 1 bookie.
Now I do need to spread it across a few Aussie books. But if I wanted to make the effort, I could still get 5-10x that amount down.