1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) 2021 Review +$30,760.00

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16 Responses

  1. Hi Steve,
    When i put a bet size of $1500 at 1.38% advantage (52.802% strike rate at 1.92 odds) through a Kelly Calculator, allowing for half Kelly sizing, it says i need a bankroll of $331k.
    This if i have 10 bets a day over 365 days a year would give me a profit of $75k.
    Am i missing something?
    It seems as though, coupled with 2.5K in fees, unless i can bet 365 days a year and maintain a 1.38% edge that the profit made with the bankroll required is poor.
    Please explain as transparency is key in the tipping industry.

  2. admin says:

    Hi Nick,
    If I was anymore transparent in this industry, I’d be invisible 🙂
    You can go back 10 and a half years on this blog, or see every single bet the service has provided on the DP results page.

    Not sure where you got 1.38% from (I just realised you got it from my own personal results. These results include me testing out 20-30 other Tipsters over the past 10 years, all of who lost apart from Sportpunter), the DP service has a ROI of 1.95% over 8129 bets.
    A few things on that result though, this includes every single bet we have given out on the site (for a few sports we advised members not to bet them as they were not winning models, but some members still wanted them and it would not be right to not record them). This also includes recording at odds easily attainable (Currently NBA Totals are recorded at 1.90 when 1.952 is a standard).

    Members also follow each sport differently. For me, I (and members) know that NBA Totals is the current golden goose, so I bet 10x on that compared to the AFL and NRL. Each member figures out their own banks for each sport.

    But lets just use your numbers as an example.
    $331k Bank, $75k profit – 2.5k in fees = $72,500 profit.

    $331k in a bank account = $3,310 profit per year (no risk)
    $331k in stocks @ 8% return = $26,480 profit per year (med/high risk)
    $331k in Dailyprofit = $72,500 (your number) (high risk)

    Hope that helps.

  3. Hi Steve,

    Thanks for your prompt response. The numbers i used were from your bets with the resultant profit.

    Part of my issue in understanding is when you suggest a 10x bet size on NBA totals. Quarter 1 without NBA totals, shows a loss of $9060.

    I understand very well that some people like to leverage their advantage by investing bigger amounts when their edge is higher but 10X is fantasy. The narrative of 5 star specials etc etc reads well but is fantasy.

    In blackjack which is a closed game (what has happened has bearing on what is likely to happen) a 10X or more bet sizing is normal as your edge can be calculated accurately, but in racing and sport where it’s not a closed game, you can only estimate your advantage

    Why bet on anything else? I have a very intimate knowledge of betting. My income for the last 30 years has been from sports and race betting. To maintain a 55%+ strike rate on NBA totals is somewhere in the close to impossible range. The market won’t allow someone or in the case of your service, many someones to keep winning at that rate. Either (A) the market would adjust or (B) you’d be restricted bet size wise or (C) a combination of A and B. Anyway I slice and dice it, the edge you can have in sports betting changes constantly with the need to be nimble and adapt strategies is paramount.

    Even at 7.6% advantage and using Full Kelly (way to risky for me……i’d never bet more than Half Kelly) you’d need $185K betting $15k (10x) as your bankroll.

    Apart from Pinnacle or CRIS, I don’t know any bookmaker in the world who’d keep betting you that amount if you were winning. For that matter, i’m very uncertain that the above mentioned bookmakers would bet you those amounts anyway.

    Kind Regards.

  4. admin says:

    The NBA Totals have been on the Dailyprofit site for 7 years now and another 10 odd years on the Sportpunter site.

    Dailyprofit results show 9% ROI over 2703 bets and Sportpunter would be similar over many more thousand bets. Again, to very easy odds and totals to match and beat.

    We have had many people over the years try and reverse engineer the model and we give out less and less data, but each year it consistently produces amazing results.

    The 10x is my normal stake really, it just means I bet for fun on the AFL and NRL.

    It’s the reason we have over 100 members paying a fair bit of money each year (and 80% now happy to pay a year in advance). But we are happy for you to feel it can’t be real 🙂

  5. Ok,
    I’ve extrapolated your last quarter turnover of NBA totals $2,194,140 to 7 years ( 14 quarters as they only play 6 months or 2 quarters per year) and come up with a total turnover of $30,717,960 which over 2703 bets is $11,364 per bet. Given that you stated a 9% profit over the period (7 years), that would mean a profit of $2,764,616 somewhat more than the $479k stated for the last 10 years.
    My “BS” antennae is waving away madly. You’ve stated how transparent you are as to be invisible but your figures don’t stack up.
    There’s not a bookmaker in the world (including Pinnacle and CRIS) who’d take that size action from a winning punter, let alone all your followers.
    With 110 people paying $250k per annum (or thereabouts) for your tips, then you don’t actually have to win. I will say that you’ve got yourself a nice little (maybe not so little) tipping business. It’s crazy how tipping businesses can be so profitable. I’ve spoken over the years to many proprietors in the tipping business and to say “there’s one born every day” is such an understatement. With them telling me that they run multiple sites with many of their clients subscribing to many and sometimes all of their sites.
    I cry “BS” and warn people to be very aware of the adage “if it’s too good to be true it probably is”.

  6. admin says:

    Hey Nick,
    Even a winning tipster isn’t going to make much. What do you know, I’ve been transparent about that as well.

    Feel free to let people know it’s BS.

  7. Dean says:

    Congratulations on the big milestone Steve. Been enjoying the blog for many years (and the Twittah lately) and long may it continue. Nice to see the discipline and long term focus from the betting pay off in your other endeavours. Here’s to another decade of melting faces off.

  8. admin says:

    Thanks Dean, it’s been a fun ride. The MBA I got via betting was better than any uni degree.
    Here’s to another decade of finding value 🙂

  9. Stewboss says:

    “These results include me testing out 20-30 other Tipsters over the past 10 years, all of who lost apart from Sportpunter)”

    This simply isn’t a true reflection. I ran the very successful Football Investor service for 10 years and you were a member during one of my most profitable periods and by your own admission, the service was not for you due to the UK time difference when I was releasing my bets. So it’s untrue to say my service was unprofitable just because you lost money sleeping when the bets were issued.

  10. Temi says:

    I see you never mention bet365 as your preferred bookie. Is there something we should know? And what bookie would you recommend before one subscribes to your monthly daily profit system ?

  11. admin says:

    Bet365 will ban you eventually, like all the rest. If you win long term you are banned.
    I always recommend having an account with every single bookie, you always need to get the best possible odds and totals while you can.
    Some accounts will last much longer than others.

  12. Chenz says:

    I still do not understand how you get those bet amounts into play on the NBA.
    It’s not possible.

  13. admin says:

    People have been telling me for 10 years it’s not possible to make a profit.
    NBA markets are massive, my average bet size is like $1,400. If Pinnacle kept early prices, that was just 1 bookie.

    Now I do need to spread it across a few Aussie books. But if I wanted to make the effort, I could still get 5-10x that amount down.

  14. Jared says:

    Hi Steve, great workmate. I have been slow researching sports betting for the last 5years and through all my research this blog has to be the most in-depth and transparent than anything I’ve read in the world. I have tried other systems and logged my findings however this is a great model, especially your NBA market which I’m very interested in.

  15. admin says:

    Thanks Jared. The NBA model by Jonno is so good.

  16. Syn says:

    Hi Steve

    How do you deal with withdrawing your winings from the offshore betting brokers, and explaining that to the ATO? I understand gambling winnings are not taxed however if one withdraws the winnings in bitcoin won’t a lot of questions be asked?

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