Oct 29th – Nov 4th +$37,862.28
I’ve had some crazy weeks before, but this surely beats them all. We had a massive NBA head to head win, the biggest comeback I have ever seen in any sport (to cover a line bet), my biggest fuck up to date, an amazing start for a Sportpunter model and the Melbourne Cup. With all of that, I also ended the week at my highest ever profit level since inception over four and a half years ago. Just the other week I was sitting on -$56,000 and now I am in profit.
Let’s start with Sportpunter. The NBA season started last week and to say his first week was fantastic would be an understatement. On just the second day of the new season I had a $1,210 bet on the Knicks over Cleveland which paid $8.80. I also had $1,100 on Oklahoma over the Clippers for a further $8,000 profit which just missed.
After the 2nd day I felt uncomfortable betting so much on such long shots and increased my Kelly staking to make the bets a little smaller. They are still big and I will have some massive swings over the season, but they are more in line with my other bets. This first week of NBA bought in $24,000 profit. We can add in $1,100 for NFL, $4,100 for NHL and $19,600 for NBL. If we combine them all, Sportpunter models made me a massive $48,800 in just 1 week. That just blows my mind.
One of the NBL wins included what must be one of the biggest comebacks ever. I had a large bet on the Taipans to win by 10.5. Nearing the end of the 3rd Quarter I checked the live score and saw them down by 15. Knowing they would need to outscore the Kings by 26 in the last (more points then they had even scored in any one quarter) I put this down as a loss in my spreadsheet. This would have stayed a loss as I would never have checked the final score. Luckily Jonno sent me a message asking if I was watching the game. I checked and was blown away by the score line. It also helped that the kings missd 5 three point attempts in the last minute and a half. The other great thing was that Sportpunter clients pushed out the line on the kings to 12.5 and I know many people on twitter had got on this line, so the bookies had to pay out both sides.
But now lets move onto what is becoming an all too common and expensive habit for me. MISTAKES. This one cost me $13,700 and if not for my stupidity I would have made over $50,000 in a week for the first time ever. I had prepared the NBL spreadsheet in advance as I always do, but for some weird reason, I had put the teams in the wrong way. So when I uploaded the numbers, I had a team as a 70% chance when they were really a 30% chance. This happened on two games and as I always try and place bets as fast as possible, I did not check to see if these were the correct bets. I then sent Jonno a message saying “wow, some big bets tonight”. When he sent back “Sarcasm??”, I knew I had done something wrong. The actual bets were tiny bets on the other sides. There was no chance for me to take the other side without taking a huge loss so I let them ride. I don’t think any mistake I have let ride has ever won for me and both these games did not even get close to covering. I can blame lack of sleep, and being a new dad, but really, it was just plain stupidity from me and the need to get on these bets before the lines and odds are smashed. I might not make the same mistake again but I’m positive I’ll make more in the future. I just hope these even out over time.
ClubGOWI lost $1,800 this week but at the end of this month there will be a $6,000 payout to add to his tally. I had 3 people email me this week and say they were stopping their subscription and they all had very valid points. Most had profits in the 1-3% range and that also matches my returns, but when huge ROI’s are shown on the site then that just pisses these guys off. I don’t blame them for leaving, but I’ll be sticking it out. I know the maximum I can hope for with this service is about 5% and more likely I will get around 2%. But I have not found many other tipsters where I am pretty confident that I can get 2% long term, and that’s all I really hope for from any service.
Diamond Edge only advises MLB and the season has come to an end. I will review this in the coming weeks when I have some time. It’s final week netted $650 profit. Pro Computer Gambler lost $300 this week. The Golf tipsters lost a combined $1,250.
Still finding it difficult to get within 5-7% of a heap of bets on the soccer, and also finding it very difficult not to bet when the odds go out over that amount as well. I missed some high priced winners this week as they just never rebounded to the official odds. From the bets I did manage to place, Football Elite made $5,600, Football Value made $1,200, TFA lost $1,150, Winabob lost $1,900 and finally, Football Investor made $350. My Personal bets returned $1,100 and as mentioned earlier, my mistakes cost me a whopping $13,700.
Today’s post is so late as I was betting on the Melbourne Cup festival today. Really sad to see the favorite (Admire Rakti’s) die after the race and also Araldo being put down after breaking his leg returning to the stables. We have also had a few deaths of riders in the past month. It’s really a very dangerous job for both Jockeys and horses and we really don’t pay them enough respect. I’m going to try and be more conscious of the hard work all our sporting stars put in on the field or track.
A very up and down week for me and I am hoping for a similar profit this week to move into some real profit for the first time in year 5. It’s amazing how each years profit and loss graph seems to mimic each other. I’m hoping for a mirror image of last year and from now until July the graph keeps climbing to stupidly high numbers. A lot more stress free Steve signing off for this week.
Total Profit for the week was $37,862.28
[mc4wp_form]
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $2,297,145.93
Profit/Loss: $4,138.34
POT: 0.18%
Bets Placed: 3405
Won: 1238
Lost: 1612
Half Payout: 33
Refunded: 522
Winning %: 43.4%
Total profit per day: $351,663.18 / 1588 = $221.45
Total Turnover: $16,639,889.30
Total ROI: 2.11%
NBL Totals $16,451.00 $(7,702.64) -46.8%
week profit/loss: 3072.04
NBL Line $56,235.00 $28,812.84 51.2%
week profit/loss: 16,552.71
NFL Totals $63,504.00 $10,406.03 16.4%
week profit/loss: 1070.07
NHL Totals $33,124.00 $12,634.41 38.1%
week profit/loss: 4095.35
NBA Totals $41,672.00 $12,839.38 30.8%
week profit/loss: 12,839.38
NBA H2H $28,503.00 $11,353.82 39.8%
week profit/loss: 11,353.82
ClubGowi $289,663.00 $6,921.46 2.4%
week profit/loss: -1813.50
GOWI $8,932.00 $(1,841.00) -20.6%
week profit/loss: 0
Diamond Edge $150,500.00 $2,577.00 1.7%
week profit/loss: 655
PCG $136,467.00 $(3,735.21) -2.7%
week profit/loss: -309.50
Jason Kelly Golf $8,096.93 $(6,706.93) -82.8%
week profit/loss: -700
Betswot $8,013.00 $(6,258.00) -78.1%
week profit/loss: -550
FB Elite $39,250.00 $1,992.50 5.1%
week profit/loss: 5680
Football Value $19,000.00 $795.00 4.2%
week profit/loss: 1230
TFA 21 $87,609.00 $(5,549.30) -6.3%
week profit/loss: 65
TFA 41 $86,800.00 $(10,586.00) -12.2%
week profit/loss: -1540
6-21-31 $50,207.00 $2,205.72 4.4%
week profit/loss: 830
D1-D6 $26,000.00 $980.00 3.8%
week profit/loss: -1500
E1-E6 $13,240.00 $6,585.00 49.7%
week profit/loss: 980
Mike Lindley $22,500.00 $(4,035.00) -17.9%
week profit/loss: -500
WINABOBATOO $100,500.00 $(12,628.00) -12.6%
week profit/loss: -1403
FBI combo $48,500.00 $757.00 1.6%
week profit/loss:-3000
FBI Euro $22,000.00 $(995.00) -4.5%
week profit/loss: 3350
Odds pushed out $6,500.00 $600.00 9.2%
week profit/loss: -35
Personal $4,366.00 $118.36 2.7%
week profit/loss: 1104.91
Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -13735
If sports punter all sports was half the price or I had twice the bank……..
You wouldn’t want your mistakes to even out because that would suggest your tipsters have no edge.
Who was the bookie who had 365 best like betting and do you know what triggered them to shut you down so fast (no more 365 best) cost me approx $890 this week 3 percent of my bank… So far
You would have to make a whole lot of mistakes for your assertion to hold true. Anything else is just randomness.
Steve can you recommend any offshore books that you might use for NBL, either now or in the future? I fear my time with the Aussie ones is going to end shortly with a few more Sportpunter NBL wins. I’ve given up with getting value from Pinnacle as I’m just not quite quick enough at release time (damn bot-boy).
Sadly Pin is the only non aussie one I use. I’m not looking forward to this week as my only outs seem to be limited now. Not sure its worth throwing another account away as well. Will just have to keep plugging away. Last week I was not able to get fully on the biggest bet of the week.
steve are you not able ot utiliize sport market pro?
Yes, I use Sportmarket Pro. It does not have NBL though.
I only use if for Soccer.
So Steve you’re folowing SP NBA h2h and not the line bets?
Yep, these two have the highest returns. Yes there’s a lot more variance betting the H2H instead of the line bets, but I can deal with that.
I make a lot of mistakes. My theory (correct me if I’m wrong, I often am) is that the missed bets cost you about the roi of your tipster (say 10%) times the bet (say 100 for simplicity) 10$ each one in this case on average. Now that is assuming you go away on holidays and don’t put any on for the weekend if you just miss them due to price crashes (especially horses) you can nearly double that figure.
Backing the wrong side is much worse (same example) you would be missing the 10$ profit but also locking in a loss ( I reckon 5% bookie overland plus the price is on average 10% short on the other side, that’s why your tipster was tipping it in theory) so you are looking at about 25% or 25$ in this case turnaround per f… Up. Worse if your tipster is better…. I hate making stupid mistakes.
Yep, that sounds right, but with it only happening a few times each year the biggest factor is pure luck. Just need to make sure they happen as infrequently as possible.
Hello Steve. Second try, first comment somehow vanquished. Have just stumbled in to your blog and i must say i’m impressed. Results speak for itself and you also have a nice way of writing. I was very skeptical about some of the services you are following, so it’s nice to read about your experiences and the other people commenting here. Was wondering some things. Do you include the money you pay for tips in your profit/loss and ROI stats? And, which bookmakers do you currently use? Thanks in advance, will be following your blog closely ; )
What Steve said…
Hi Mate,
No, the subscription cost is not added in, very silly of me really as it is a cost. I will do an article soon with how much I have paid in Subscription fees over the years.
There is an article about which bookmakers i used, just search for bookmakers and you will find it.
Thanks Steve, do you place your NBA h2h bets at the 5-6pm release or in the AM when Jon puts up with pin prices?
That’s still a work in progress. Right now I bet them around 11pm my time when they open, but am checking to see if its better to wait.
Thanks for your answer! Allright, good to hear you will write an article about those costs. Found your bookmaker article as well, interesting ; )! Was wondering something else; A lot of the services you follow have higher yields displayed at their site. Is this because you catch the odds slightly lower in general? And how many ticks lower do you go, like from which point do you skip a bet? I’ve read some discussion about clubgowi as well, isn’t it just the odds drop that makes the yield on his site appear much higher? Or is it fake even without those drops? Asking because i just signed up with hem and i’ve noticed it’s impossible to get the same odds, often get them about 10 ticks lower (for the smaller markets), which can be about 5% in the long run. And lastly, what is your general opinion from start to date about Football value, Football elite and TFA? Would you recommend them? I’m sorry to ask so much questions mate, hope you can find the time to answer them. Thanks and keep up the good work!
All those answers can be found by using the search function.
All services want to look much better then they are, no single person is ever going to match the odds they quote. I am still yet to find a service where I consistently get or beat the odds quoted. If these tipsters quoted fair odds (which mean odds that the average customer who isn’t super quick) then they would mostly show a very low or negative ROI.
Only Skeeve had a fair odds policy, which was to record odds 15minutes after release.
I go to 7% worse odds for most, but it depends on their stated ROI.
I have written a heap on the GOWI service, again, use the search button. He quotes available odds at the time, but as you have seen these drop within milliseconds, so 1 or 2 people get those odds, the other issue is he does not share any verifiable results, so he could be putting in whatever figures he wants, especially when he quotes things like, “$3-$4 available” or $10 on betfair. I’m sure he is using the highest number and not adding BF commission.
Read the reviews on these services. I could not recommend any of them yet but that doesn’t mean they won’t be a fit for you.
Was actually doing some reading. And youre right, found most answers. Sorry about that. Football elite claims to record odds from 30 minutes after they posted as well.. Looks pretty solid.. What happened to Skeeve?
No worries, I usually love answer questions. Just way too busy these days.
Skeeve is still going (this year he isn’t advising bets till January), but after 3 seasons of break even results I decided it wasn’t worth the effort.
Allright no biggie. Just browsed around on skeeves website. According to skeeves records he has been doing quite good the last years (around 10% roi recorded after the first drop). How come you were breaking even?
I am in OZ, so can’t bet when they are released and on some games the odds never rebounded.
Ah ofcourse.. Well atleast you can fully enjoy NBL which seems to do just fine in the last 5 years. Im off to bed, have a nice day!
NBL has challenges all it’s own. Impossible to get on, massive swings, so on.
Good night