Oct 29th – Nov 4th +$37,862.28
I’ve had some crazy weeks before, but this surely beats them all. We had a massive NBA head to head win, the biggest comeback I have ever seen in any sport (to cover a line bet), my biggest fuck up to date, an amazing start for a Sportpunter model and the Melbourne Cup. With all of that, I also ended the week at my highest ever profit level since inception over four and a half years ago. Just the other week I was sitting on -$56,000 and now I am in profit.
Let’s start with Sportpunter. The NBA season started last week and to say his first week was fantastic would be an understatement. On just the second day of the new season I had a $1,210 bet on the Knicks over Cleveland which paid $8.80. I also had $1,100 on Oklahoma over the Clippers for a further $8,000 profit which just missed.
After the 2nd day I felt uncomfortable betting so much on such long shots and increased my Kelly staking to make the bets a little smaller. They are still big and I will have some massive swings over the season, but they are more in line with my other bets. This first week of NBA bought in $24,000 profit. We can add in $1,100 for NFL, $4,100 for NHL and $19,600 for NBL. If we combine them all, Sportpunter models made me a massive $48,800 in just 1 week. That just blows my mind.
One of the NBL wins included what must be one of the biggest comebacks ever. I had a large bet on the Taipans to win by 10.5. Nearing the end of the 3rd Quarter I checked the live score and saw them down by 15. Knowing they would need to outscore the Kings by 26 in the last (more points then they had even scored in any one quarter) I put this down as a loss in my spreadsheet. This would have stayed a loss as I would never have checked the final score. Luckily Jonno sent me a message asking if I was watching the game. I checked and was blown away by the score line. It also helped that the kings missd 5 three point attempts in the last minute and a half. The other great thing was that Sportpunter clients pushed out the line on the kings to 12.5 and I know many people on twitter had got on this line, so the bookies had to pay out both sides.
But now lets move onto what is becoming an all too common and expensive habit for me. MISTAKES. This one cost me $13,700 and if not for my stupidity I would have made over $50,000 in a week for the first time ever. I had prepared the NBL spreadsheet in advance as I always do, but for some weird reason, I had put the teams in the wrong way. So when I uploaded the numbers, I had a team as a 70% chance when they were really a 30% chance. This happened on two games and as I always try and place bets as fast as possible, I did not check to see if these were the correct bets. I then sent Jonno a message saying “wow, some big bets tonight”. When he sent back “Sarcasm??”, I knew I had done something wrong. The actual bets were tiny bets on the other sides. There was no chance for me to take the other side without taking a huge loss so I let them ride. I don’t think any mistake I have let ride has ever won for me and both these games did not even get close to covering. I can blame lack of sleep, and being a new dad, but really, it was just plain stupidity from me and the need to get on these bets before the lines and odds are smashed. I might not make the same mistake again but I’m positive I’ll make more in the future. I just hope these even out over time.
ClubGOWI lost $1,800 this week but at the end of this month there will be a $6,000 payout to add to his tally. I had 3 people email me this week and say they were stopping their subscription and they all had very valid points. Most had profits in the 1-3% range and that also matches my returns, but when huge ROI’s are shown on the site then that just pisses these guys off. I don’t blame them for leaving, but I’ll be sticking it out. I know the maximum I can hope for with this service is about 5% and more likely I will get around 2%. But I have not found many other tipsters where I am pretty confident that I can get 2% long term, and that’s all I really hope for from any service.
Diamond Edge only advises MLB and the season has come to an end. I will review this in the coming weeks when I have some time. It’s final week netted $650 profit. Pro Computer Gambler lost $300 this week. The Golf tipsters lost a combined $1,250.
Still finding it difficult to get within 5-7% of a heap of bets on the soccer, and also finding it very difficult not to bet when the odds go out over that amount as well. I missed some high priced winners this week as they just never rebounded to the official odds. From the bets I did manage to place, Football Elite made $5,600, Football Value made $1,200, TFA lost $1,150, Winabob lost $1,900 and finally, Football Investor made $350. My Personal bets returned $1,100 and as mentioned earlier, my mistakes cost me a whopping $13,700.
Today’s post is so late as I was betting on the Melbourne Cup festival today. Really sad to see the favorite (Admire Rakti’s) die after the race and also Araldo being put down after breaking his leg returning to the stables. We have also had a few deaths of riders in the past month. It’s really a very dangerous job for both Jockeys and horses and we really don’t pay them enough respect. I’m going to try and be more conscious of the hard work all our sporting stars put in on the field or track.
A very up and down week for me and I am hoping for a similar profit this week to move into some real profit for the first time in year 5. It’s amazing how each years profit and loss graph seems to mimic each other. I’m hoping for a mirror image of last year and from now until July the graph keeps climbing to stupidly high numbers. A lot more stress free Steve signing off for this week.
Total Profit for the week was $37,862.28
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $2,297,145.93
Bets Placed: 3405
Half Payout: 33
Winning %: 43.4%
Total profit per day: $351,663.18 / 1588 = $221.45
Total Turnover: $16,639,889.30
Total ROI: 2.11%
NBL Totals $16,451.00 $(7,702.64) -46.8%
week profit/loss: 3072.04
NBL Line $56,235.00 $28,812.84 51.2%
week profit/loss: 16,552.71
NFL Totals $63,504.00 $10,406.03 16.4%
week profit/loss: 1070.07
NHL Totals $33,124.00 $12,634.41 38.1%
week profit/loss: 4095.35
NBA Totals $41,672.00 $12,839.38 30.8%
week profit/loss: 12,839.38
NBA H2H $28,503.00 $11,353.82 39.8%
week profit/loss: 11,353.82
ClubGowi $289,663.00 $6,921.46 2.4%
week profit/loss: -1813.50
GOWI $8,932.00 $(1,841.00) -20.6%
week profit/loss: 0
Diamond Edge $150,500.00 $2,577.00 1.7%
week profit/loss: 655
PCG $136,467.00 $(3,735.21) -2.7%
week profit/loss: -309.50
Jason Kelly Golf $8,096.93 $(6,706.93) -82.8%
week profit/loss: -700
Betswot $8,013.00 $(6,258.00) -78.1%
week profit/loss: -550
FB Elite $39,250.00 $1,992.50 5.1%
week profit/loss: 5680
Football Value $19,000.00 $795.00 4.2%
week profit/loss: 1230
TFA 21 $87,609.00 $(5,549.30) -6.3%
week profit/loss: 65
TFA 41 $86,800.00 $(10,586.00) -12.2%
week profit/loss: -1540
6-21-31 $50,207.00 $2,205.72 4.4%
week profit/loss: 830
D1-D6 $26,000.00 $980.00 3.8%
week profit/loss: -1500
E1-E6 $13,240.00 $6,585.00 49.7%
week profit/loss: 980
Mike Lindley $22,500.00 $(4,035.00) -17.9%
week profit/loss: -500
WINABOBATOO $100,500.00 $(12,628.00) -12.6%
week profit/loss: -1403
FBI combo $48,500.00 $757.00 1.6%
FBI Euro $22,000.00 $(995.00) -4.5%
week profit/loss: 3350
Odds pushed out $6,500.00 $600.00 9.2%
week profit/loss: -35
Personal $4,366.00 $118.36 2.7%
week profit/loss: 1104.91
Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -13735