Skeeve picks reply

In yesterdays weekly update, I had a go at both Pinnacle sports and Skeeve picks. To be honest I thought I’d be writing about the Pinnacle issue, but I have had a reply from the head of the sportsbook and his direct reply was ‘I can unequivocally say we do not, and never have operated, any bet delay’. I have no reason to not believe him as Pinnacle has been the greatest sportsbook for a very long time. But to me and a few others it did seem like there was some sort of bet delay on French league 2 bets. As I only have my experience on this issue and no proof of what happened, I am happy to believe it was a technical issue, the next time something like this happens I will make sure to get actual proof (video). Pinnacle are great at replying to concerns and I had a private conversation with them where they let it be known they are more then happy to answer all my issues out in the open.

I also had a go at Skeeve as even though he had a perfect week, I felt that he is introducing a few third party services in the hopes of spreading the risk. I had no real problem with this as I do it with my portfolio and he has a business to run. You need other offerings to take up the slack when your main one is not working so well. I believe he and I can see that a few subscribers will be leaving at the end of the year and he needed to prepare for a future where maybe his own tipping has lost its edge. What I did have a concern with was what that said to me, and that was that Skeeve was unsure about his own selections, to me it seemed that these backup services are him trying to cover his business in case he fails (maybe I extrapolated more from it then I should have). I thought, why should I put all my trust in his picks if he doesn’t seem to be fully supporting his own thoughts. That was the point I was trying to get across in my not so elegant style of writing.

This morning I woke up to a Graeme-esque (TFA) length tirade (the length was Graeme-esque, not the tirade) in my comments section. I felt Skeeves voice should not languish in the comments section where only a few people will see them and instead I will directly answer his comments in a new blog post. Hat tip to Cassini for showing me how to produce lots of content this way. I will post his comment and my answers will be in bold. I hope we can have a constructive discussion and am more then happy to let Skeeve (and any other tipster) write as many guest posts as they would like. My main goal here is to help the average punter looking for a few good services to follow.

I believe Skeeve might have reached a boiling point and just decided that enough was enough as his comment feels directed not just at me, but at all the subscribers that send him emails and complain. I will try and be restrained in the way I answer as even though I feel he went a bit far on a few things, I can understand the strain he is probably under and we all need to vent (heck, I do it weekly right here).

I also have noticed that I have been very mean on this blog in the last few months. I felt there were a few issues that needed to be addressed and I do not tread lightly when I have problems. For some this is seen as a breath of fresh air, for others it is seen as me being a dick. I will try and be more sympathetic to the tipsters I follow in the coming months, unless they suck, then they are so in for it 🙂

Onto the comment and my replies.

Hi Steve,

Steve: Hello Skeeve

I haven’t visited your blog for some time, but it looks like I’ll have to reply to almost every post you’ve written in these few months as there’s an enormous quantity of rubbish and lies written about my service. I’ll just start with this latest post and move to the older posts when I find the time.

Steve: Hi mate, there may be a lot of rubbish on this site, but no lies at all. This site is totally based on my own opinion and I strive to put into words every week how I feel personally in regards to how my bets are doing, how each service is doing and my general disposition of having to deal with wild swings.

First of all, the German Football Bets that “got to you” (I’m so sorry they got to you, mate) are the latest addition to my own betting portfolio. If you’d read the e-mails instead of deleting them, you’d know all there is to know about it, but no – you’ve traditionally decided not just to delete them, but to publically shit on a project you know nothing about. So let me waste even more time on the peripheral aspects of my service and let your readers know what it’s really about. When BetPlace went under, not because they weren’t profitable but because it was a big team that didn’t manage to attract enough customers, many of my clients have asked if I could make some sort of a deal with interested tipsters from ex-BetPlace (the guys from BetPlace and me are from the same part of the world). I went on a couple of meetings, learned that almost all BetPlace tipsters have switched to other projects in the meantime, but managed to make a deal with Harley, a German football tipster with a long-term ROI of 11% who wrote more than three thousand articles over at BetPlace. Subsequently, I’ll be sending all of Harley’s picks to my clients free of charge at least until the end of the season. I’ll be paying Harley for his efforts out of my own pocket while my clients can choose between following him or deleting the e-mails.

Steve: I off-course read the emails before deleting them, at the end of the day I want to make as much profit as possible. My issue with adding the services is expressed above. To me it seems you are proofing these new services in essence to protect yourself. I had no issue with this from a business perspective. Sportpunter has a heap of models and some that make a loss every season, he does offer these bad ones for free and rarely talks about them. I had a go at TFA about having so many systems also. Now over the past 4 years I have learnt (mostly) to not dive into a new system with at least a few years of proofed results. I had to figure this out the hard way. I can also see the benefits for these tipsters, they get to show their skills to a much wider audience of people who have paid for a service before and are likely to buy again. From a business perspective that is perfectly fine with me. If your goal is to turn Skeeve picks into a betadvisor style site then that’s great. But you have to understand what it says to me, and again, this is my blog and all thoughts are mine (but these same thoughts were expressed to me by others). What it says is that you don’t fully believe in your own service. That is what I paid for, your brain. I believed that you have an uncanny ability to produce profits in a niche league. Now I’m sure you don’t think like this at all, I’m sure you see it as an added extra service you are providing for your customers. That’s your opinion and I respect that.

The set-up is the same as with the Croatian Football Bets, another free project I’m involved with for a year now as an administrator and a senior advisor. You’ve probably deleted all the e-mails, so let me just say that the Croatian Football Bets are currently at a +14.92 point profit (19.3% ROI, 59.6% ROC) for the 2013/14 season so far (one-point flat stakes, advised bank: 25 points). These picks are also free of charge for my clients, at least until the end of the season. You’re welcome.

Steve: I sadly did not dive into these bets as there was no past history but am more then happy with my decision. The beauty here is that if they went bad, then o well, you were offering these for free and they didn’t work. You do keep repeating, until the end of the season, which imply that they and the German picks will be a paid service from next season. Again, that’s fine and many tipsters need to give away tips for free for years before charging (TFA is a great example). But to take the high road and say you are doing this as a courtesy to your clients is a bit much. You are marketing a new product you hope to sell next season. They may be amazing services and make people a lot of money, only time will tell.

Also, I’ve advised many five-point bets so far. This was the first five-point bet this season (it landed of course), but we’ve had some last season (and every season before that) – maybe you were winning a soccer tournament somewhere and missed them.

Steve: I do tend to win a lot of soccer tournaments. I did state it was the first I could remember, and sadly my memory usually doesn’t extend longer then a season. I should do research before posting, but as I have explained, I have about 10 minutes each week to spit out my feelings and then move on. So apologies for the lack of research on that one.

Should I feel relieved that TFA didn’t have a bet on Tamworth because, if he had, you would’ve given the other double a miss as well? Also, you do realise you would’ve catched better odds for the five-point double if you had taken the bet straight away and not, I don’t know, twelve hours later, don’t you?

Steve: I have made this a problem for myself here, I follow a number of tipsters and they don’t always agree. Usually I just bet all selections, but this is not the profitable way to do it. I now take a few factors into account when placing these opposing bets and so far it has saved me many many thousands. Onto the odds I could get and from the start I have told my visitors that I do not bet straight away as I am asleep when the tips come out and the majority of the time they rebound and I get much better then quoted odds. As you are about to read over all my past posts (some cracking stuff in there), you will see that I continually praise the way you quote odds and that on average I beat you odds by betting later. I again did a lot of research on this and found that checking your odds throughout the day was the most profitable way forward. In this one case it wasn’t and therefore I was strict enough with myself not to follow as it was under the minimum odds. Yes it cost me, but the extra money I have made by waiting and getting better odds far far outweighs this one missed profit.

So the draw was very, very lucky and when a team I’m betting on misses a penalty, hits the woodwork four times and concedes from the other team’s only shot on goal I’m just rubbish? Sure. Very fair, very consistent, thanks mate.

Steve: Yes it was very very lucky. Chester had a player sent off very early and kept taking the lead. Here is a quote from Cassini about your pick as well “including fluking a 3:3 draw in the AFC Chester v Nuneaton Borough game!”, I do not see you commenting on his blog about that. This is a real bugbear of mine and I have posted about it before. When you have a losing bet where woodwork was hit or penalties missed you are the first to let everyone know in your recap emails, o woe is me, it’s not that I didn’t pick well, it was that the woodwork got in the way or a player didn’t play his best or the ref was a cheat. This was your quote on the Chester win. “That’s more like it. Chester and Nuneaton shared points in a high-scoring 3:3 draw”. So you are not very consistent in your commenting, there have been a number of last minute goals and missed penalties that have gone your way, but I have never heard once you say how lucky we got. It’s betting, luck goes both ways but if someone was to read your emails, they would assume all the gods ever created were against you. I feel your ego gets in the way sometimes and it is the case on many of your recap emails.

If anyone is thinking about starting a tipping service, think again. Or, at least, don’t try and be fair to everyone. Don’t have a waiting list, just take all the clients you can, even if it means destroying the odds for everyone. Money is the only thing it matters, not fair play. Don’t record odds with a fair delay, just record the odds with StanJames and BetVictor. They don’t even have to be the odds available at that moment in time – yesterday’s odds are good as well. Sure, none of your clients will match the official results, but the official results will look better. Also, if you go on a prolonged losing run, just go insane and lose the entire betting bank. Why would you want to help your clients get some of those lost points back by sending them specialised picks from proven tipsters free of charge? That’s mental. Also, forget about the detailed previews, picks coming at the same time every week, recap e-mails, season reviews, other publications that try and help your clients maximise the profit and avoid dodgy bookmakers and fellow services. What’s wrong with simply sending the name of the team you’re betting on, without a preview, without the available odds, without the minimum value odds attached… Last but not least, don’t give bloggers a 50% discount. I was a blogger myself, sharing my picks for free before I turned my service into a paid one so that I could get rid of the boring freelance jobs and pay the rent (not everyone had a betting bank by default – some of us started with nothing), and I really had nothing but respect for the likes of Rowan Day, which is why I offered a 50% discount to any blogger who will follow and write about my picks throughout the season. The only condition was to follow all picks and not improvise every single week. You’ve failed to do so. You don’t owe me money. I don’t want your money. I’ll get you back to green with my picks and, when the season ends, you will be removed from the mailing list and won’t be welcome anymore. As far as the blogger discount is concerned – I’ll be smarter than that next time. No more blogger discount. Sorry, other bloggers. As far as I’m concerned, feel free to blame your favorite blogger.

Steve: If you have read my blog you would know I am on the exact same page with you on this, I have made it my quest over the last few months to bring these issues to a wider audience and have something done about them. I have praised your service no end about the way it is run, how fair you record odds and how you should be the standard and not the outlier. I will forgive your ignorance on this point as you stated earlier you had not read my blog and will be happy to accept your apology after you have.

In regards to me not being allowed back in next season, that is your right to choose who can be a part of your service, but we both knew I wasn’t going to be continuing next season.

I wasn’t joking. I’ll be replying to every single post that features lies and rubbish as soon as I find the time.

Steve: I look forward to the increased page count in my analytics. I will also take the time to reply to your comments.

If you don’t want to lose everything you have (believe it or not, I don’t want that to happen to anyone – I know how it is, to have nothing), you will have to take a long-term approach and not improvise every single week. Oh, I’ll take this bet. Oh, I won’t take this bet. Oh, this guy is rubbish. Oh, the same guy is great only seven days later. Oh, I’ll take this bet tomorrow. Oh, this bet clashes with some other bet from a completely different type of service. Oh, I’ll just ignore one of those two. Why? I have no idea. But why not.

Steve: Thanks for the advice. Is 4 years not a long term approach? I don’t know any other blogger who posts a weekly P/L who has been around as long as me, especially with my swings. Just 4 months ago I was -$50,000 for the season, but knew this is a long term venture. I have seen hundreds of similar blogs come and go. A little respect for my persistance at least. I only improvised your bets because of a few reasons pointed out above. Every other tip has been followed to the letter from every other tipster.

In regards to the weekly posts, I have thought about this as well, I have thought about moving to a fortnightly or monthly blog post, this will at least decrease the massive amount of variance all services experience on a weekly basis. But at the end of the day, if I posted once a month, people would forget about the site. People actually enjoy coming back every week to see how I have done. As I don’t spend any time trading or learning about betting, I have very little else to offer apart from some big wins and losses every week. I believe my readers are very bright people and know that one weekly result means very little to the overall performance of a tipster and instead would go to my yearly reviews to get a better perspective.

I bet you’ll think of me in a few years, when you realise a thing or two about tipsters. At this moment in time, you and me live in completely different worlds, different on many levels. You think a tipster is rubbish if he has a break-even season or two, even if that comes after five, six or seven consecutive profitable seasons. I think a tipster is rubbish if he loses his entire betting bank and isn’t profitable in the long run. You think a tipster is great if he’s had a good weekend. I think a tipster is great if he’s had a good career so far and if he’s a fair guy and a hard worker. Good luck, mate. You’re gonna need it.

Steve: I will think about you in years to come and check in and hope you get over this little bump and continue to make your clients a nice healthy profit. I don’t think any tipster I follow is rubbish, I’ve gambled many millions on the fact that they aren’t rubbish. Every week I have the option to stop following and every new season I have the option to pay more money to continue following. I have felt some I have followed are rubbish and over the years I will come to that conclusion about many more. I feel it is possible that some tipsters have lost their edge, or there is a change in the game or many other factors which can render a tipster no longer profitable. There’s only so many years of history you can coast on. Yes, in those years you were great, but I did not benefit from them, I have only my own experience to go on.

Those who shit and spit on fair-play services that never had a losing season, that try and be fair to their clients even if it means less money for them deserve harsher words than these. I have better things to do though, but I might start a blog where I could write about my clients in the same manner they’re writing about my service. If I don’t, some poor guy could get a lot of wrong ideas about a lot of things. Let me say something to that poor guy – I hope you’re smarter than that.

Steve: I would so read that blog. It would be amazing. One thing you have to understand is that this blog isn’t here for tipsters, it started as a place for me to keep tabs on my profit and loss and has evolved into what I hope is a resource and review site for other potential idiots like myself who have zero chance of making a profit betting on their own. I have never said your service isn’t fair, in fact I say the exact opposite. The only bad things I have said are about your current run of form since I have been following you, I can’t go back in time and join your service when it was making a profit (wish I could). These are my opinions and to the poor guy Skeeve was addressing, I hope you are smart, I believe my readers are the top of the crop and not losing punters. I believe they make informed decision before investing their own money into a service. After almost 4 years I know how hard it is to make a profit from this game.

cheers,
skeeve

Steve: Cheers mate. I do think you may have just had enough when you wrote this and understand you feel the need to defend yourself. I invite you to write a guest post on this blog (unedited by me) with whatever you want to say to my readers. I hope you can see my point of view a little better also and understand where I am coming from, as I am a customer of yours and usually if one customer feels a certain way then a few others probably do so too, I just have a public voice while many of the others do not.

So there we have it loyal readers. I believe I need to think a bit more about how my comments will effect the tipsters I follow, but also feel that tipsters should take what I say on board. I feel my relationship with the majority of the guys I pay are very good and we usually have very fruitful discussions. I can’t please everyone and my personality type is going to rub some people the wrong way. I hope my readers and tipsters understand that these are just one persons opinion and you can add whatever weight you feel to what I say. This blog is here purely for entertainment sake and anyone thinking of following a tipster should do their own due diligence. I’ll leave it at that.