Mar 5th – Mar 11th +$1,914.63
I have no idea how I made a profit this week. Because Saturday is my biggest single betting day, I usually assume whatever the result on that day is a pretty good representation of the week. On the weekend the Soccer models lost about $20,000, so I assumed a massive loss. Luckily when looking back over the week the Sportpunter models as always came to the rescue. I don’t want to imagine the day these models stop performing, as it could be a disaster. The longer this goes on, the more I seriously entertain the thought of solely following Sportpunter (and Football Investor), sadly, these other tipsters just haven’t produced the results they have historically.
I said last week that I would try and not watch any games this week and that lasted to Saturday night, where I decided to stay up and watch the Soccer, which was a complete disaster. I was sitting on $95,000 and thought a few good wins would see the profit climb over $100,000 and I could have a little celebration. Then I woke up the next morning and looked at the Tennis that was going on and watched as Stepanek choked in the third to cost me a $15,000 profit. Such a painful few days and a reason that I really need to stop watching games.
We may as well start with the Soccer and after a good few weeks, it reverted back to the usual pattern of the season. Skeeve lost all his bets and a further $3,600 but apparently was due to another unlucky result and some woodwork getting in the way. Football Elite started terribly on Saturday but recovered a bit and ended down just $560. Combo Football Investor had it’s first negative week in a while and lost $960 and The Football Analyst went 0 from 22 and lost $6,000. ClubGOWI lost $183 but much more then that with the Soccer as he had a winning Golf bet. A heap of midweek bets tonight, which has not been kind at all this season.
Onto Tennis and as I sit here, Dolgopolov has just choked while serving for the match against Nadal. He is about to lose in a tiebreaker and it is so frustrating that these lower players just can’t finish off games. Tennis lost $2,300 this week although most bets were on very long odds. EDIT: A good example of how much shit I talk: Dolgopolov served an ace on match point which was challenged and was 1mm out, but he managed to win on his second serve. This win will be added to next weeks total.
AFL starts on Friday and I have never been more excited. I am also very nervous at the same time. Even though there has never been a big losing season the chance is always there and at the stakes I am now playing at, a bad run could see all this years profit taken away. I also love watching AFL, so I am going to try and do what I did last season and go for an hour long run every time a game is on.
The Rugby codes are also doing well for Sportpunter. Union made $800 and NRL had a great start with $2,500 profit. Hoping for a repeat of the NBL season for these two models. NBL continues its season of dominance and bookies have pretty much stopped taking bets now, I have just the one bookmaker who will take a bet and the odds are usually pretty poor. Not sure how this will work out next season. $5,100 profit. Onto the American sports and NHL has surged back over the last few weeks. $4,800 profit this week. NBA added a little more modest profit of $360.
Lastly Nics Picks finally had a win with Donaldson being the highest European player. $1,900 profit for the Golf. ClubGOWI also picked Reed at the start of the last round and he held on for the win.
Will never complain about a profitable week. Even though I can’t remember ever making a profit on midweek games, the chance is still there that I may just hit that $100,000 profit mark tonight. If that does happen, it will be a nice little achievement for me. Last season the highest profit level was $92,000 reached in early May. The highest level so far this season was reached last week at $95,000. With almost 4 months left in this my 4th year, and a historically amazing model set to start, I could not only smash through that elusive $100k mark, but maybe even hit $150,000. At the beginning of November I would have laughed so hard in your face that you would be covered in so much spittle you would drown if you had told me I would even be able to contemplate a result like that. Next weeks post shall be epic (as the kids say).
Total profit for the week was $1,914.63
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,782,006.34
Profit/Loss: $91,116.22
POT: 3.28%
Bets Placed: 4,801
Won: 1770
Lost: 2772
Half Payout: 23
Refunded: 236
Winning %: 39.0%
Total profit per day: $278,638.31 / 1350 = $206.39
Total Turnover: $12,531,835.87
Total ROI: 2.22%
ATP – SP $335,734.00 $1,763.07 0.5%
week profit/loss: -2299.39
AFL H2H – SP $31,795.00 $4,893.75 15.4%
week profit/loss: 0
AFL Line – SP $207,830.00 $41,317.17 19.9%
week profit/loss: 0
Rugby SP $9,858.00 $4,580.67 46.5%
week profit/loss: 788.45
NRL SP $4,626.00 $2,514.75 54.4%
week profit/loss: 2514.75
FB Elite $195,000.00 $3,779.00 1.9%
week profit/loss: -560
Skeeve $92,098.00 $(6,467.70) -7.0%
week profit/loss: -3600
Combo FI $108,715.00 $16,132.88 14.8%
week profit/loss: -960
TFA $515,126.00 $(34,337.08) -6.66%
week profit/loss: -6000
ClubGowi $179,891.00 $6,999.80 3.9%
week profit/loss: -183.80
NP Win $20,629.34 $(3,611.34) -17.5%
week profit/loss: 1900
NHL Totals $259,287.00 $4,618.43 1.8%
week profit/loss: 4835.83
NBL Totals $96,924.00 $31,162.64 32.2%
week profit/loss: 3501.75
NBL Line $88,451.00 $28,560.13 32.3%
week profit/loss: 1616.46
NBA Totals $139,310.00 $2,032.51 1.5%
week profit/loss: 1119.72
NBA H2H $88,614.00 $7,708.87 8.7%
week profit/loss: -759.14
Are 1st goal/try scorer refunds worth it?
As the new NRL and AFL season starts, the bookies are going to be doing all they can to entice you back to bet with them. Sportingbet have a refund if your team scores over 12 points but loses and sportsbet have the same deal but with 18 points. These offers do offer value and I happily take them up when I can. By doing a tiny bit of research you can figure out the average points a team scored per game last season, how strong the other teams defense was and how they performed against each other last year. Taking these bets also shouldn’t lead to your account being closed. These offers will only be around for the first week or two so take the few minutes it takes to do the research and make some profit. You can even back and lay the same bet at Betfair for an easy guaranteed profit.
Onto the offers these bookies will have over the full season. The ones that seem great. These include some of the images below.
Tatts have a refund on your 1st try scorer bet if the number 3 from either team scores a try. TAB refunds if the fullback scores the first try. The bookies want you to place these bets so badly, and you need to ask yourself why? The reason is simple. A H2H market is usually $1.90 on each team if they are fairly matched. This is a 105% market. The bookmaker will make 5% on average on this bet. So every $100 you bet they will pocket $5. Now onto the shocking truth about 1st Try scorer and 1st Goal scorer markets. The book on these are 150%. I’ll repeat that again, 150%. What that means is that for every $100 you bet on these markets, the bookmaker is making $50 on average from you. No wonder they will do anything to get you to bet these.
That is the same as changing the odds on those evenly matched teams from $1.90 each to $1.34 each. Would you bet with them if that was the case? No F^*^en way. The books use your lack of maths knowledge to screw you over royally. No amount of refunds can overcome the massive head-start these books have given themselves.
If you’re a smart gambler then you now know to stay well clear of these type of offers.
February 2014 Review +$41,250.98
A great month and one I really enjoyed. Since November, the month totals have been +41,000, +$18,000, +$20,000 and now +$41,000. A $120,000 profit in the past four months. But this came of the back of a $86,000 loss the prior two months. The yearly profit is now in a place I assumed it would be by now so even though it came in its usual bizarre way, I’m excited its here.
February’s turnover was 10% less then January’s with $400,706.34 bet, but doubled its profits to $41,250.98 which is a stellar ROI of 10.29%.
This month only saw the one losing sports and that was Golf, but with average odds of around 50 to 1, we should expect to see mostly losing months and the occasional big month.
The big winner this month was Soccer. It was half the turnover and half the total profit for the month. Skeeve was the only losing tipster for the month but I think enough has been said about him and his service over the last few days. FB Elite has started to get some momentum going and added $7,700 at 19.9% and Combo Football Investor just keeps spitting out great bet after great bet and added $8,700 at an amazing 35.6% ROI. TFA added close to $11,000 and I hope this continues till the end of the season.
The AFL had the NAB cup and I was betting half stakes and made a mistake that turned a $2000 win into a $2000 loss, a very big $4,000 turnaround. It made $2,243 but this should have been $6,000. Tennis had a basic month with $4,000 profit and I’m happy to see it back to winning ways. The NFL finished with almost $2,000 profit for ClubGOWI and the NHL added a small profit also. The Sportpunter Rugby Union season started with a bang and $3,800 profit at 53.3%. Basketball has been a revelation this season and has helped me keep my sanity while everything else around it was failing. The NBA broke about even, but the NBL just continues to produce results that I doubt will ever be replicated. $10,500 profit for the NBL.
March has started well and we welcome the NRL and AFL models from Sportpunter into the portfolio. I have very little hope for the new player based model for the NRL and will keep stakes low for the first season, but the AFL has been my go to service since the inception of this blog and I am hoping that it continues its amazing form. The bets are going to be very big this season and I am going to try my best to stay away from the TV while these games are on. March’s turnover should increase dramtically as we have every single sport in my portfolio happening at the same time. This lasts for about 2 months before the Soccer season ends.
A very content gambler here. Still 4 months to go until year 4 is over and the total could go anywhere. Another replica of the past 4 months (YES PLEASE) would see close to $200,000 profit for the season, but a big loss is as likely an outcome. If the next 4 months only contribute $20,000 to take me to over $100,000 I will take that, but from here I am really hoping to hit $150,000. I will just need to keep placing the bets and hoping these tipsters know their stuff.
Combined Totals
AFL $34,042.00 $2,243.05 6.6%
Tennis $75,623.00 $4,052.59 5.4%
Soccer $202,549.00 $21,608.10 10.7%
Basketball $56,882.00 $10,582.12 18.6%
Golf $6,731.34 $(3,586.84) -53.3%
NFL $600.00 $1,898.00 316.3%
NHL $17,166.00 $661.74 3.9%
Rugby Union $7,113.00 $3,792.22 53.3%
Individual Models
ATP – SP $75,623.00 $4,052.59 5.4%
AFL H2H – SP $7,340.00 $758.55 10.3%
AFL Line – SP $26,702.00 $1,484.50 5.6%
FB Elite $39,000.00 $7,749.00 19.9%
Skeeve $18,248.00 $(3,875.60) -21.2%
Combo FI $24,500.00 $8,716.50 35.6%
6-22 $3,750.00 $902.50 24.1%
7-21 $5,500.00 $1,070.00 19.5%
7-22 $1,750.00 $957.50 54.7%
8-21 $2,750.00 $1,142.50 41.5%
8-22 $1,500.00 $320.00 21.3%
31-42 $13,250.00 $4,271.50 32.2%
33-41 $2,500.00 $(295.00) -11.8%
33-42 $2,250.00 $(45.00) -2.0%
TOX $10,000.00 $165.00 1.7%
STOY $10,000.00 $145.00 1.5%
STOZ $14,000.00 $(80.00) -0.6%
D3-D6 $2,000.00 $1,347.50 67.4%
D3-D7 $750.00 $922.50 123.0%
NP Win $2,481.34 $(2,181.34) -87.9%
NBL Totals $9,527.00 $3,531.04 37.1%
NBL Line $16,247.00 $6,978.67 43.0%
NBA Totals $17,919.00 $406.26 2.3%
NBA H2H $13,189.00 $(333.85) -2.5%
NHL Totals $17,166.00 $661.74 3.9%
ClubGowi $55,651.00 $(1,313.30) -2.4%
Rugby SP $7,113.00 $3,792.22 53.3%
Skeeve picks reply
In yesterdays weekly update, I had a go at both Pinnacle sports and Skeeve picks. To be honest I thought I’d be writing about the Pinnacle issue, but I have had a reply from the head of the sportsbook and his direct reply was ‘I can unequivocally say we do not, and never have operated, any bet delay’. I have no reason to not believe him as Pinnacle has been the greatest sportsbook for a very long time. But to me and a few others it did seem like there was some sort of bet delay on French league 2 bets. As I only have my experience on this issue and no proof of what happened, I am happy to believe it was a technical issue, the next time something like this happens I will make sure to get actual proof (video). Pinnacle are great at replying to concerns and I had a private conversation with them where they let it be known they are more then happy to answer all my issues out in the open.
I also had a go at Skeeve as even though he had a perfect week, I felt that he is introducing a few third party services in the hopes of spreading the risk. I had no real problem with this as I do it with my portfolio and he has a business to run. You need other offerings to take up the slack when your main one is not working so well. I believe he and I can see that a few subscribers will be leaving at the end of the year and he needed to prepare for a future where maybe his own tipping has lost its edge. What I did have a concern with was what that said to me, and that was that Skeeve was unsure about his own selections, to me it seemed that these backup services are him trying to cover his business in case he fails (maybe I extrapolated more from it then I should have). I thought, why should I put all my trust in his picks if he doesn’t seem to be fully supporting his own thoughts. That was the point I was trying to get across in my not so elegant style of writing.
This morning I woke up to a Graeme-esque (TFA) length tirade (the length was Graeme-esque, not the tirade) in my comments section. I felt Skeeves voice should not languish in the comments section where only a few people will see them and instead I will directly answer his comments in a new blog post. Hat tip to Cassini for showing me how to produce lots of content this way. I will post his comment and my answers will be in bold. I hope we can have a constructive discussion and am more then happy to let Skeeve (and any other tipster) write as many guest posts as they would like. My main goal here is to help the average punter looking for a few good services to follow.
I believe Skeeve might have reached a boiling point and just decided that enough was enough as his comment feels directed not just at me, but at all the subscribers that send him emails and complain. I will try and be restrained in the way I answer as even though I feel he went a bit far on a few things, I can understand the strain he is probably under and we all need to vent (heck, I do it weekly right here).
I also have noticed that I have been very mean on this blog in the last few months. I felt there were a few issues that needed to be addressed and I do not tread lightly when I have problems. For some this is seen as a breath of fresh air, for others it is seen as me being a dick. I will try and be more sympathetic to the tipsters I follow in the coming months, unless they suck, then they are so in for it 
Onto the comment and my replies.
Hi Steve,
Steve: Hello Skeeve
I haven’t visited your blog for some time, but it looks like I’ll have to reply to almost every post you’ve written in these few months as there’s an enormous quantity of rubbish and lies written about my service. I’ll just start with this latest post and move to the older posts when I find the time.
Steve: Hi mate, there may be a lot of rubbish on this site, but no lies at all. This site is totally based on my own opinion and I strive to put into words every week how I feel personally in regards to how my bets are doing, how each service is doing and my general disposition of having to deal with wild swings.
First of all, the German Football Bets that “got to you” (I’m so sorry they got to you, mate) are the latest addition to my own betting portfolio. If you’d read the e-mails instead of deleting them, you’d know all there is to know about it, but no – you’ve traditionally decided not just to delete them, but to publically shit on a project you know nothing about. So let me waste even more time on the peripheral aspects of my service and let your readers know what it’s really about. When BetPlace went under, not because they weren’t profitable but because it was a big team that didn’t manage to attract enough customers, many of my clients have asked if I could make some sort of a deal with interested tipsters from ex-BetPlace (the guys from BetPlace and me are from the same part of the world). I went on a couple of meetings, learned that almost all BetPlace tipsters have switched to other projects in the meantime, but managed to make a deal with Harley, a German football tipster with a long-term ROI of 11% who wrote more than three thousand articles over at BetPlace. Subsequently, I’ll be sending all of Harley’s picks to my clients free of charge at least until the end of the season. I’ll be paying Harley for his efforts out of my own pocket while my clients can choose between following him or deleting the e-mails.
Steve: I off-course read the emails before deleting them, at the end of the day I want to make as much profit as possible. My issue with adding the services is expressed above. To me it seems you are proofing these new services in essence to protect yourself. I had no issue with this from a business perspective. Sportpunter has a heap of models and some that make a loss every season, he does offer these bad ones for free and rarely talks about them. I had a go at TFA about having so many systems also. Now over the past 4 years I have learnt (mostly) to not dive into a new system with at least a few years of proofed results. I had to figure this out the hard way. I can also see the benefits for these tipsters, they get to show their skills to a much wider audience of people who have paid for a service before and are likely to buy again. From a business perspective that is perfectly fine with me. If your goal is to turn Skeeve picks into a betadvisor style site then that’s great. But you have to understand what it says to me, and again, this is my blog and all thoughts are mine (but these same thoughts were expressed to me by others). What it says is that you don’t fully believe in your own service. That is what I paid for, your brain. I believed that you have an uncanny ability to produce profits in a niche league. Now I’m sure you don’t think like this at all, I’m sure you see it as an added extra service you are providing for your customers. That’s your opinion and I respect that.
The set-up is the same as with the Croatian Football Bets, another free project I’m involved with for a year now as an administrator and a senior advisor. You’ve probably deleted all the e-mails, so let me just say that the Croatian Football Bets are currently at a +14.92 point profit (19.3% ROI, 59.6% ROC) for the 2013/14 season so far (one-point flat stakes, advised bank: 25 points). These picks are also free of charge for my clients, at least until the end of the season. You’re welcome.
Steve: I sadly did not dive into these bets as there was no past history but am more then happy with my decision. The beauty here is that if they went bad, then o well, you were offering these for free and they didn’t work. You do keep repeating, until the end of the season, which imply that they and the German picks will be a paid service from next season. Again, that’s fine and many tipsters need to give away tips for free for years before charging (TFA is a great example). But to take the high road and say you are doing this as a courtesy to your clients is a bit much. You are marketing a new product you hope to sell next season. They may be amazing services and make people a lot of money, only time will tell.
Also, I’ve advised many five-point bets so far. This was the first five-point bet this season (it landed of course), but we’ve had some last season (and every season before that) – maybe you were winning a soccer tournament somewhere and missed them.
Steve: I do tend to win a lot of soccer tournaments. I did state it was the first I could remember, and sadly my memory usually doesn’t extend longer then a season. I should do research before posting, but as I have explained, I have about 10 minutes each week to spit out my feelings and then move on. So apologies for the lack of research on that one.
Should I feel relieved that TFA didn’t have a bet on Tamworth because, if he had, you would’ve given the other double a miss as well? Also, you do realise you would’ve catched better odds for the five-point double if you had taken the bet straight away and not, I don’t know, twelve hours later, don’t you?
Steve: I have made this a problem for myself here, I follow a number of tipsters and they don’t always agree. Usually I just bet all selections, but this is not the profitable way to do it. I now take a few factors into account when placing these opposing bets and so far it has saved me many many thousands. Onto the odds I could get and from the start I have told my visitors that I do not bet straight away as I am asleep when the tips come out and the majority of the time they rebound and I get much better then quoted odds. As you are about to read over all my past posts (some cracking stuff in there), you will see that I continually praise the way you quote odds and that on average I beat you odds by betting later. I again did a lot of research on this and found that checking your odds throughout the day was the most profitable way forward. In this one case it wasn’t and therefore I was strict enough with myself not to follow as it was under the minimum odds. Yes it cost me, but the extra money I have made by waiting and getting better odds far far outweighs this one missed profit.
So the draw was very, very lucky and when a team I’m betting on misses a penalty, hits the woodwork four times and concedes from the other team’s only shot on goal I’m just rubbish? Sure. Very fair, very consistent, thanks mate.
Steve: Yes it was very very lucky. Chester had a player sent off very early and kept taking the lead. Here is a quote from Cassini about your pick as well “including fluking a 3:3 draw in the AFC Chester v Nuneaton Borough game!”, I do not see you commenting on his blog about that. This is a real bugbear of mine and I have posted about it before. When you have a losing bet where woodwork was hit or penalties missed you are the first to let everyone know in your recap emails, o woe is me, it’s not that I didn’t pick well, it was that the woodwork got in the way or a player didn’t play his best or the ref was a cheat. This was your quote on the Chester win. “That’s more like it. Chester and Nuneaton shared points in a high-scoring 3:3 draw”. So you are not very consistent in your commenting, there have been a number of last minute goals and missed penalties that have gone your way, but I have never heard once you say how lucky we got. It’s betting, luck goes both ways but if someone was to read your emails, they would assume all the gods ever created were against you. I feel your ego gets in the way sometimes and it is the case on many of your recap emails.
If anyone is thinking about starting a tipping service, think again. Or, at least, don’t try and be fair to everyone. Don’t have a waiting list, just take all the clients you can, even if it means destroying the odds for everyone. Money is the only thing it matters, not fair play. Don’t record odds with a fair delay, just record the odds with StanJames and BetVictor. They don’t even have to be the odds available at that moment in time – yesterday’s odds are good as well. Sure, none of your clients will match the official results, but the official results will look better. Also, if you go on a prolonged losing run, just go insane and lose the entire betting bank. Why would you want to help your clients get some of those lost points back by sending them specialised picks from proven tipsters free of charge? That’s mental. Also, forget about the detailed previews, picks coming at the same time every week, recap e-mails, season reviews, other publications that try and help your clients maximise the profit and avoid dodgy bookmakers and fellow services. What’s wrong with simply sending the name of the team you’re betting on, without a preview, without the available odds, without the minimum value odds attached… Last but not least, don’t give bloggers a 50% discount. I was a blogger myself, sharing my picks for free before I turned my service into a paid one so that I could get rid of the boring freelance jobs and pay the rent (not everyone had a betting bank by default – some of us started with nothing), and I really had nothing but respect for the likes of Rowan Day, which is why I offered a 50% discount to any blogger who will follow and write about my picks throughout the season. The only condition was to follow all picks and not improvise every single week. You’ve failed to do so. You don’t owe me money. I don’t want your money. I’ll get you back to green with my picks and, when the season ends, you will be removed from the mailing list and won’t be welcome anymore. As far as the blogger discount is concerned – I’ll be smarter than that next time. No more blogger discount. Sorry, other bloggers. As far as I’m concerned, feel free to blame your favorite blogger.
Steve: If you have read my blog you would know I am on the exact same page with you on this, I have made it my quest over the last few months to bring these issues to a wider audience and have something done about them. I have praised your service no end about the way it is run, how fair you record odds and how you should be the standard and not the outlier. I will forgive your ignorance on this point as you stated earlier you had not read my blog and will be happy to accept your apology after you have.
Onto the 50% discount for bloggers. After my first season you said I was not entitled to it as I hadn’t given a fair representation of your service (this was true as I had been away for a week and missed some winning bets), I was happy to pay for the service again. In the second season you again did not give me any type of blogger discount. It seems you are happy to give the discount as payment to write better reviews about the service. I am more then happy to pay for all tipsters and have been offered free membership from a few tipsters before and have taken them up on the offer, but I pay for at least 80% of my tips and have never ever received a “Blogger” discount from Skeeve. So again, you should have done some research before accusing me of getting your service cheaper then it is, which is by far the most expensive I subscribe to. I do apoligise to other bloggers that may have gotten this discount, but if it means you no longer need to hold back and be as honest as possible then that can only be a good thing.
Lets also get onto the “not everyone had a betting bank by default – some of us started with nothing” insult you flung my way. Never ever assume anything mate. I started with $60. Yep, that’s right. $60. Let me repeat that for you. $60. 10 years ago and I built that up over the next 6 years to my $50,000 betting bank. But that’s a story for another time. I still work those so called boring freelance jobs to pay the rent and work on my own business. To be honest, it shouldn’t matter if I had a $50k starting bank or a $5,000 bank. The only difference is that my results maybe have an extra zero then a lot of my readers, but the percentages will all be very close.
Now, I also can understand how tough running a tipster service must be, every week you put it all on the line and you have to deal with not only losing your own money when things don’t go well, but also the knowledge that you have lost clients money. You are always constantly worried that a bad season could end a business you have worked on for years and you also constantly have to deal with negative emails and dicks like me. Personally I applaud you for the amount of patience and skill you have to run a service. I know I don’t have those skills. I can understand when it may get to be too much and you post an outburst like you have on my site.
In regards to me not being allowed back in next season, that is your right to choose who can be a part of your service, but we both knew I wasn’t going to be continuing next season.
I wasn’t joking. I’ll be replying to every single post that features lies and rubbish as soon as I find the time.
Steve: I look forward to the increased page count in my analytics. I will also take the time to reply to your comments.
If you don’t want to lose everything you have (believe it or not, I don’t want that to happen to anyone – I know how it is, to have nothing), you will have to take a long-term approach and not improvise every single week. Oh, I’ll take this bet. Oh, I won’t take this bet. Oh, this guy is rubbish. Oh, the same guy is great only seven days later. Oh, I’ll take this bet tomorrow. Oh, this bet clashes with some other bet from a completely different type of service. Oh, I’ll just ignore one of those two. Why? I have no idea. But why not.
Steve: Thanks for the advice. Is 4 years not a long term approach? I don’t know any other blogger who posts a weekly P/L who has been around as long as me, especially with my swings. Just 4 months ago I was -$50,000 for the season, but knew this is a long term venture. I have seen hundreds of similar blogs come and go. A little respect for my persistance at least. I only improvised your bets because of a few reasons pointed out above. Every other tip has been followed to the letter from every other tipster.
I know I have still so much to learn in this game and at the stakes I now bet, a bad season is going to really hurt. I have been very fortunate to find a number of solid tipsters and also understand how lucky I have been.
In regards to the weekly posts, I have thought about this as well, I have thought about moving to a fortnightly or monthly blog post, this will at least decrease the massive amount of variance all services experience on a weekly basis. But at the end of the day, if I posted once a month, people would forget about the site. People actually enjoy coming back every week to see how I have done. As I don’t spend any time trading or learning about betting, I have very little else to offer apart from some big wins and losses every week. I believe my readers are very bright people and know that one weekly result means very little to the overall performance of a tipster and instead would go to my yearly reviews to get a better perspective.
I bet you’ll think of me in a few years, when you realise a thing or two about tipsters. At this moment in time, you and me live in completely different worlds, different on many levels. You think a tipster is rubbish if he has a break-even season or two, even if that comes after five, six or seven consecutive profitable seasons. I think a tipster is rubbish if he loses his entire betting bank and isn’t profitable in the long run. You think a tipster is great if he’s had a good weekend. I think a tipster is great if he’s had a good career so far and if he’s a fair guy and a hard worker. Good luck, mate. You’re gonna need it.
Steve: I will think about you in years to come and check in and hope you get over this little bump and continue to make your clients a nice healthy profit. I don’t think any tipster I follow is rubbish, I’ve gambled many millions on the fact that they aren’t rubbish. Every week I have the option to stop following and every new season I have the option to pay more money to continue following. I have felt some I have followed are rubbish and over the years I will come to that conclusion about many more. I feel it is possible that some tipsters have lost their edge, or there is a change in the game or many other factors which can render a tipster no longer profitable. There’s only so many years of history you can coast on. Yes, in those years you were great, but I did not benefit from them, I have only my own experience to go on.
Those who shit and spit on fair-play services that never had a losing season, that try and be fair to their clients even if it means less money for them deserve harsher words than these. I have better things to do though, but I might start a blog where I could write about my clients in the same manner they’re writing about my service. If I don’t, some poor guy could get a lot of wrong ideas about a lot of things. Let me say something to that poor guy – I hope you’re smarter than that.
Steve: I would so read that blog. It would be amazing. One thing you have to understand is that this blog isn’t here for tipsters, it started as a place for me to keep tabs on my profit and loss and has evolved into what I hope is a resource and review site for other potential idiots like myself who have zero chance of making a profit betting on their own. I have never said your service isn’t fair, in fact I say the exact opposite. The only bad things I have said are about your current run of form since I have been following you, I can’t go back in time and join your service when it was making a profit (wish I could). These are my opinions and to the poor guy Skeeve was addressing, I hope you are smart, I believe my readers are the top of the crop and not losing punters. I believe they make informed decision before investing their own money into a service. After almost 4 years I know how hard it is to make a profit from this game.
cheers,
skeeve
Steve: Cheers mate. I do think you may have just had enough when you wrote this and understand you feel the need to defend yourself. I invite you to write a guest post on this blog (unedited by me) with whatever you want to say to my readers. I hope you can see my point of view a little better also and understand where I am coming from, as I am a customer of yours and usually if one customer feels a certain way then a few others probably do so too, I just have a public voice while many of the others do not.
So there we have it loyal readers. I believe I need to think a bit more about how my comments will effect the tipsters I follow, but also feel that tipsters should take what I say on board. I feel my relationship with the majority of the guys I pay are very good and we usually have very fruitful discussions. I can’t please everyone and my personality type is going to rub some people the wrong way. I hope my readers and tipsters understand that these are just one persons opinion and you can add whatever weight you feel to what I say. This blog is here purely for entertainment sake and anyone thinking of following a tipster should do their own due diligence. I’ll leave it at that.
Feb 26th – Mar 4th +$30,675.26
WOWAWEEWAH. Back to back massive weeks has catapulted the profits into a new territory for me. I’m too lazy to look back through my past posts, but I believe this may be the first ever $30k+ week. Even in my wildest predictions, I never though my profit could be this high at this stage. It was at the start of November that I was begging for a break even season when sitting at -$50,000. Amazing the amount of profit that can be made when things start going well. Lets hope the introduction of the AFL season this month adds even more to the profit and I can break the magical $100,000 barrier for the season.
Lets start with the small amount of pain I had to endure while watching an NBL game on the weekend. I had a $2,000 bet on the -4.5 line and with 5 seconds left my team was up by 4 and stole the ball and had two guys under the oppositions ring, they pass the ball and the guy has a good 3 seconds to layup, dunk, make a cup of tea. What does he do, dribbles the ball away from the ring and lets time expire. WHY. Closest I have ever been to throwing my remote at the tv. Serves me right for watching games I bet on and I know I say it every time, but I have to stop watching games. The soccer starts at 2am every Sunday morning and I sit with my Flashscores app while watching an EPL game and don’t get to bed till 5am. Last weeks goal was to go without Facebook, Twitter and my RSS feeds, I lasted the 5 days of the week. This week my goal is to not watch games.
I’ll also talk about Skeeve before getting onto the results. He has now started sending some German tips and this really got to me, I know I can easily delete the emails and I do, but it really seems he is doing all this as a backup plan for his service. I was so so close to not following this weeks picks as I thought that if he is already trying to cover his arse then why should I have any faith in his tipping. But then I felt bad for him, he is just trying to run a business and some other streams of income are a good idea as clearly his own tipping is not looking great (up until this week at least). Then the first ever 5 point bet I can remember pops up and that got me thinking he was chasing (but it was due to low odds). So after all this I decided to bet, but for the first time ever, the two bookies I can get multi bets at (conference south league) were below the minimum odds of 1.60 so I did not place the bet. I managed to get on the other two and the draw got very very lucky. The other was a good win.
Onto the results.
Tennis made a comeback with $5,100 profit, the NAB cup ended with $2,100 profit and a nice profit for the tournament, good signs for the season ahead. Rugby had its first losing week, shedding $800. After the shocking NBL result, it ended the week up $250. NBA also made a tiny profit. NHL started up again after the Olympics and 95% of games are going over and luckily the model was on the over for most of these games. $5,500 profit and back evens for the season after being down a fairly hefty sum. So the winner of the Daily25 awards makes me around $12,000 for the week.
Soccer has made a blistering comeback, down $60k at one stage and now just down $10k. Another tipster pushes into positive territory and Skeeve is also close. FB Elite seems to have turned the corner with $8,200 profit this week and Skeeve added $6,900. Combo FI continues its year long form with $1,800 and TFA added a further $5,000.
ClubGOWI had a poor week with a $3,000 loss and I am still yet to see a profit from his Soccer picks. I think he feels that he needs to have bets every day and sometimes there is nothing good but he is expected to send out bets. After the season I will do some analysis on what leagues he seems to excel at. I wish he kept a real list of results so I could do some proper testing, but I will need to rely on my own data. Nics Picks never looked like winning this week and lost another $775, really need a second win of the season.
I will be writing a post in the coming days about Pinnacle Sports. This time I feel they have taken things too far in regards to a timer being implemented for some bets, it seems they are now referring a few ClubGOWI bets to a trader and this would be the first step on a very slippery slope to being just like every other bookie. I was asked by the Pinnacle rep on Twitter to let them answer my questions before I post anything, I have given them 36 hours and still no reply. There are a number of things I want to discuss, but it seems they are now targeting clients of successful tipsters and this just isn’t on. They say they don’t limit winners and work like a traditional bookie, but this behavior shows they will at the end of the day, do anything to stop people making money from them. Just like all the rest.
Still need to get around to also replying to Graeme and I’m hoping I can find some free time this week, but can’t promise anything.
Other good news that none of you would care about is that I just got back from my indoor soccer Grand final and we won the game easily. I scored 2 beauties and set up 3 others. Not that I’m talking myself up or anything, but I’m very talented. haha
What an amazing run and it has mirrored last season as I kept saying earlier. If it continues to mirror, there is at least another month of profits before a small dip and then more profits to round out the season. Well over $250,000 now and 1/4 of the way to a real milestone. Long may it continue.
Total profit for the week was $30,675.26
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,700,746.34
Profit/Loss: $89,201.59
POT: 3.30%
Bets Placed: 4,649
Won: 1717
Lost: 2677
Half Payout: 21
Refunded: 234
Winning %: 39.1%
Total profit per day: $276,723.68/ 1343 = $206.04
Total Turnover: $12,450,575.87
Total ROI: 2.22%
ATP – SP $326,184.00 $4,062.46 1.2%
week profit/loss: 5170.23
AFL H2H – SP $31,795.00 $4,893.75 15.4%
week profit/loss: 1420.20
AFL Line – SP $207,830.00 $41,317.17 19.9%
week profit/loss: 742.50
Rugby SP $7,113.00 $3,792.22 53.3%
week profit/loss: -767.43
FB Elite $185,000.00 $4,339.00 2.3%
week profit/loss: 8200
Skeeve $88,498.00 $(2,867.70) -3.2%
week profit/loss: 6900
Combo FI $105,215.00 $17,092.88 16.2%
week profit/loss: 1805
TFA $509,126.00 $(28,337.08) -5.56%
week profit/loss: 5017.50
ClubGowi $168,391.00 $7,183.60 4.3%
week profit/loss: -2954.60
NP Win $19,629.34 $(5,511.34) -28.1%
week profit/loss: -775
NHL Totals $253,928.00 $(217.40) -0.1%
week profit/loss: 5556.99
NBL Totals $92,899.00 $27,660.89 29.8%
week profit/loss: 567
NBL Line $83,738.00 $26,943.67 32.2%
week profit/loss: -302
NBA Totals $129,964.00 $912.79 0.7%
week profit/loss: -880.86
NBA H2H $83,318.00 $8,468.01 10.2%
week profit/loss: 975.73
2013 Daily25 Awards
Today marks the day of the 1st annual Daily25 awards. These awards are for the tipsters that have provided the best service and highest profit over the 2013 period. This is pretty much a bit of fun to say thanks to the people who I pay to help make me money. Throughout the year I will degrade, yell at and pretty much shit on every single tipster I follow. They all have bad weeks and I need something to write about each week, and boy does a good fight generate traffic. But at the end of the day, many of these guys do a fantastic job and deserve some credit.
This years award winner is ………… Jonno at Sportpunter.com.
Jonno with his spoils
We’ll that was a no brainer. Sportpunter models made $129,981 profit in 2013. My total profit in 2013 was $113,171 so all other models combined actually lost me money (bit unfair to some tipsters as they did make a profit).
The SBC does a good job with their Hall of Fame stuff, but giving Hall of Fame status to a losing service over a season seems a bit silly to me. That’s why these awards are much better and more highly sort after then any other on the internet*.
These awards have a few criteria.
- Service must have made a profit
- Whatever I say goes
The fight for the Soccer trophy for season 13/14 looks like a foregone conclusion with only one service in profit so far with only a few months left.
Meet Fluffy Nuts and Weirdo.
*may not be true
Feb 19th – Feb 25th +$27,418.18
The yearly profit is now starting to resemble something half decent after a fantastic weekend. My arch nemesis Soccer finally gave me the sort of profit I was expecting on a much more regular basis. Still a long way to go before Soccer even hints at getting back to break even, but these weeks are what sustains me through the many months of sideways and downward movement. As I keep repeating, this is the period where I make hay and this season again it hasn’t disappointed. As always, I have something to complain about, after almost 4 years I’m still making simple mistakes and this week it cost me $2,000.
Last night I had a bet on the +9.5 line for an AFL game, I decided to see if Betfair had prices and they did, but I had not bet at Betfair on AFL for over a year and forgot that they have the teams in reverse. I ended up betting the other side and it lost. Plain and simple stupidity from me. A $1,200 loss for AFL this week instead of what should have been a profit. Tennis is still failing to impress this season but at least made a $1,000 profit. First full round of the Super 15 and another great start to a Sportpunter model with $2,400 profit. A further $3,200 profit from the NBL model, but that’s nothing new. NBA started up again and also contributed $650.
ClubGOWI and Nics Picks Golf had small losses with another second in the golf, really unlucky this season.
Onto an amazing Saturday night of Soccer. It started pathetically with Middlesborough once again failing to win and adding a $2,500 early loss. Things then quickly turned with the German league adding $6,600 profit as Hamburger (what a name) won easily. FB Elite once again had a strong start but fell away later in the week and added $4,400 profit. Skeeve officially made a loss but I made $1,000 as if there is a competing bet from another tipster, I will always side with them, this has saved me a fortune as Skeeve continues his second terrible season. Football Investor continues to impress with a further $3,200 and TFA finally had one of those Saturdays I remember fondly from my first season. It added $13,200 profit to the weekly total.
A fantastic week and things have really turned around in the past few months. It was mid December that I was sitting on -$31,000 for the season and in just 2 months and 10 days that has turned into a $58,000 profit. An amazing $89,000 run. I’m hoping this amazing run continues all the way till the end of the season and I finally have that first $100,000+ profit year.
Total profit for the week was $27,418.18
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,610,654.34
Profit/Loss: $58,526.33
POT: 2.24%
Bets Placed: 4,474
Won: 1638
Lost: 2588
Half Payout: 19
Refunded: 229
Winning %: 38.8%
Total profit per day: $246,048.42 / 1336 = $184.16
Total Turnover: $12,360,483.87
Total ROI: 1.99%
ATP – SP $314,123.00 $(1,107.77) -0.4%
week profit/loss: 1008.60
AFL H2H – SP $28,812.00 $3,473.55 12.1%
week profit/loss: -1438.50
AFL Line – SP $200,355.00 $40,574.67 20.3%
week profit/loss: 196
Rugby SP $3,866.00 $4,559.65 117.9%
week profit/loss: 2456.50
FB Elite $174,000.00 $(3,861.00) -2.2%
week profit/loss: 4460
Skeeve $84,888.00 $(9,767.70) -11.5%
week profit/loss: 1008.40
Combo FI $99,715.00 $15,287.88 15.3%
week profit/loss: 3210
TFA $499,126.00 $(33,354.58) -6.68%
week profit/loss: 13260
ClubGowi $154,791.00 $10,138.20 6.5%
week profit/loss: -240.70
NP Win $18,779.34 $(4,736.34) -25.2%
week profit/loss: -381.34
NHL Totals $247,425.00 $(5,774.39) -2.3%
week profit/loss: 0
NBL Totals $92,269.00 $27,093.89 29.4%
week profit/loss: 751.54
NBL Line $78,819.00 $27,245.67 34.6%
week profit/loss: 2472.50
NBA Totals $124,351.00 $1,793.65 1.4%
week profit/loss: 142.55
NBA H2H $81,217.00 $7,492.28 9.2%
week profit/loss: 512.63
BetEzy Review 2014
I really hate being so negative on this blog, I’m sure I come across that way as sadly there is not a lot to like in this industry. Betezy is one of those companies.
It is very hard to find honest tipsters (I feel the ones I follow are). But much worse then that are the bookmakers. They really have the opportunity to allow their customers to fall in love with their service, but instead, they make sure they squeeze out every penny they can from customers and kick out anyone that will potentially see them lose a cent. I can count on one hand the amount of bookmakers that I would recommend and make me happy, and I could lose 3 fingers on that hand in an industrial accident and still have enough room to count. I could easily write an article per day about my poor treatment from just the Australian books alone and not run out of material for many years.
My story with Betezy and their clone site Dynabet would be pretty typical to most people. They welcome me with open arms and a nice bonus. Nice start. I receive welcoming emails and even a phone call. I start betting and they actually take a decent size bet and after a few months of losses, they must peg my account as a losing one. Fantastic I think. I stop playing there for a few months as they are only really good for a few seasonal sports and start receiving calls and emails to come back to play and here, have a big bonus. Not one to say no to such generosity, I take them up on the offer.
Now things start to turn, I start winning and winning and woohoo for me, more winning. They were so nice to me before, why have they gone silent now? why don’t they call me and say well done, keep up the good work? I miss my VIP service guy who would always stay in contact while I was losing. Now my bets are referred to traders and not accepted, now they don’t even go to a trader and my max bet is put down to $500 then $100 then $50. All this time, I left the bonus money in there to use once I found something I liked at big odds.
Then they take away the bonus for no reason. Over $5,000 that was mine and I followed all the rules. I called, I emailed, I threw a pigeon out of my window with a note strapped to it’s leg. But no reply. Dead silence. Payments are requested but not sent for ages, for months this goes on before I take it to the Northern Territory Racing Commission who have granted Betezy a license.
Now I need to send every communication I had and produce streams and streams of proof that I was in the wrong, not the other way around off course. After months of waiting and waiting, I am found to have done nothing wrong and the NT commission compels Betezy to put my bonus back into my account. They only put $2,500 of the $5,000 owed and when I write back to the commission I am met with silence.
I then see this as fun money and bet it all over one evening on the races, again following all their rules. I get some good winners and get the $2500 to $3500. I then lose $1000 over the next week and then request a withdrawal. After 2 weeks I am still waiting for that money and no emails are being replied to. I will be heading back to the NT commission in hopes that they will actually answer my email and get this sorted out.
If your thinking about playing at betezy.com.au or any of its clones such as dynabet.com.au then don’t be an idiot.
I will follow up on this when I have more info.
Feb 12th – Feb 18th -$7,868.37
AHHHH, so bloody frustrating at times. Soccer just keeps piling on the losses and really it’s beginning to feel like I am going insane. The old saying of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results seems to be holding true here. Every week I expect things to turn around (even by pure random luck) and every week I get the same result. So that leaves two conclusions, I am either insane (very possible), or the tipsters I am following are terrible (also very likely). We can continue to say how this season is a rare one and never has it been so hard to predict, but I assumed there was something in the modelling that could deal with these sort of situations. I know the Sportpunter Tennis model always struggles when a new player goes on a great run, but after a month it starts to understand that players new abilities better. This doesn’t seem to be the case with these soccer models.
Speaking of the Tennis model, it is terrible this season, and off course I upped my bank. $3,200 lost this week and I guess I am a little glad it is getting even harder to achieve posted odds, as it means I am betting a bit less. Two new Sportpunter models started this week. The AFL NAB cup, which I am betting at half stakes and have made $1,300 and the Super 15 model which picked a $6 winner with its first bet and is up $2,100 after just two games. The american sports are taking a break for the Olympics and All star weekend, but NBA still lost $2,100 at the start of the week. NBL only added $1,100 profit for the week with some big bets losing by half a point.
ClubGOWI had an amazing week and to be honest, I didn’t even realise as I was so frustrated with the other Soccer losses. A $5,000 profit and winner after winner each night of the week. The golf was poor again and another $750 lost this week.
Onto the thing that will be the death of me. SOCCER. After the good run last month, Football Elite has reverted to its usual state and lost $5,100. I saved money on Skeeve as there was a competing bet with TFA and I bet the TFA side (no idea why, they are both terrible at the moment). This resulted in a small $300 loss instead of many thousands. Combo Football Investor made $1400 and is the happy place I go when everything else is trying to destroy me. TFA lost a whopping $7,300 and is now at almost 50% of the bank lost again. I have saved myself a fortune by lowering bets, don’t even want to know how bad I would be if I hadn’t. Total Soccer losses now stand at over $50,000 for the season and we are running out of time to make any of that back. I will be replying to Graeme’s post when I get some free time in the coming weeks.
My last post about how tipsters should record odds has had a lot of feedback and I feel that the customer should come first in this business. But usually the customer is pretty ignorant. I think it is the responsibility of the good tipsters and subscribers making a profit to educate potential customers. A lot of services have said if they showed the “real” number then they wouldn’t get any customers. To that I say if your not offering value to your customers then you shouldn’t be making any money. I can see how tough it was in an unregulated market with so many dodgy tipsters giving the few good ones a bad name, and that’s why we should always try to educate anyone who is thinking of paying for tips.
I am also going to become a member of the Secret Betting Club this week as I have been talking to them and was given a copy of their recent newsletter and the info in there was fantastic.
More midweek bets tonight and more then likely another heavy loss. No idea why I continue to bet, I must be insane.
Total loss for the week was $7,868.37
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,494,712.00
Profit/Loss: $31,108.15
POT: 1.25%
Bets Placed: 4,252
Won: 1536
Lost: 2480
Half Payout: 19
Refunded: 217
Winning %: 38.2%
Total profit per day: $218,630.24 / 1329 = $164.50
Total Turnover: $12,244,541.53
Total ROI: 1.79%
ATP – SP $298,496.00 $(2,116.37) -0.7%
week profit/loss: -3176.77
AFL H2H – SP $25,610.00 $4,912.05 19.2%
week profit/loss: 776.85
AFL Line – SP $188,695.00 $40,378.67 21.4%
week profit/loss: 546
Rugby SP $1,061.00 $2,103.15 198.2%
week profit/loss: 2103.15
FB Elite $162,000.00 $(8,321.00) -5.1%
week profit/loss: -5140
Skeeve $78,790.00 $(10,776.10) -13.7%
week profit/loss: -318
Combo FI $91,215.00 $12,077.88 13.2%
week profit/loss: 1366.50
TFA $471,876.00 $(46,614.58) -9.87%
week profit/loss: -7328.50
ClubGowi $140,241.00 $10,378.90 7.4%
week profit/loss: 5021.50
NP Win $18,398.00 $(4,355.00) -23.7%
week profit/loss: -750
NHL Totals $247,425.00 $(5,774.39) -2.3%
week profit/loss:
NBL Totals $91,372.00 $26,342.35 28.8%
week profit/loss: 1067
NBL Line $75,429.00 $24,773.17 32.8%
week profit/loss: 48
NBA Totals $117,892.00 $1,651.10 1.4%
week profit/loss: -541.65
NBA H2H $78,094.00 $6,979.65 8.9%
week profit/loss: -1542.25
How should Tipsters record their odds?
After almost 4 years of paying for and following a large number of tipsters my number one gripe is still how they go about recording their odds. My opinion is that they should give a fair reflection of what the member can expect to get if they signed up. It should not cost a potential new subscriber anything before they know if the results are actually a true reflection. I have signed up to a few services and stopped following very quickly as it was plain to see that the odds quoted were a joke. I now half whatever the so called official results are and then determine if I will follow based on this number.
I can understand the tipsters thinking, they need to show a large return or no one would sign up, and in an unregulated market where other tipsters make up completely fictitious numbers, it is hard to stand out. Quality takes a lot of time to show and it’s an easy fix to just show results to best odds even if people can’t actually get on. I can also understand why a lot of tipsters will never change they way they record odds, because if they gave a true reflection of their service then no one would join as they would see the tipster actually makes a loss.
The best approach I have seen so far is that taken by Skeeve. His tips are in a very niche market and has a large number of followers and thus prices crash within seconds of release. Skeeve takes best odds 15 minutes after release available only from bookmakers where all members can get a decent bet on. This policy has seen me achieve odds 1.6% better then those recorded and anybody looking at his service can be guaranteed the same or better results. How amazing is that for new customers to be pleasantly surprised that they can actually make more then is stated on the tipsters website. I’m sure it took a lot of complaints before this policy was enacted, but a big WELL DONE goes out to Skeeve for this.
I have recorded my odds and the odds quoted by tipsters and have an average of 2.1% worse odds. It would surprise me if a normal member was able to better my results as I take this endeavor very seriously and place my bets as soon as I can (or wait if I know I can get better odds later). If I was able to achieve quoted odds, my profit would jump from $220,000 to $500,000. A massive difference.
Another issue are proofing sites. Again, when these bets are recorded, the odds stated are available, but it may be at a bookie that won’t take a decent bet and as soon as 1 person bets on it the price will drop dramatically. Sportpunter uses Pinnacle odds at time of release. This has resulted in a bot race and now one person who had the foresight to program a bot is able to beat all the users who manually bet. The price drops 5% almost immediate and a model that shows a long term ROI of 5% becomes useless for all but the person with the fastest bot.
Most of the tipster I follow have also been profiled by The Secret betting club, with most also winning some sort of medal. THE SBC should be congratulated for the work it does in trying to find profitable tipsters. But it again has issues, as they do proof a service, but I do not believe they actually place large bets on the service nor report exactly how much worse the odds are that they receive if they do so. I may be mistaken as I am not a member, but if this is the case then again, they are not helping their members fully.
EDIT: apologies to SBC for my ignorance. I was sent their latest newsletter and they do indeed go into great detail on achievable odds and do test properly. They have also converted me into a member with the amount of depth and work that is in these newsletters.
So after that rambling preamble, the question remains.
What can we do? how do we come up with a number that is fair for both the tipster and the member?
The best option is the Skeeve way, but tipsters have said they do not have time to do this, which is bullshit. They are paid very well and taking an extra 10 minutes is nothing, this task could also be automated. But I know this will never be the way they record odds. It would result in a massive difference compared to their current method.
So i propose a new way that I have dubbed Average Member Odds (AMO). It will be a new standard that takes no work from the tipster. It will take 3 members who are willing to spend an extra 5 minute per week to put in the odds they got and then take the average number of all 3. The 3 members will be a cross section of the betting world. We would have a regular punter who bets under $100 per unit, a professional who bets over $200 per unit and a member who can not bet at time of release and gets on whenever they can.
This number would be the closest reflection of what everyone can expect to get. I feel that any tipster who uses this system will show potential customers how confident and transparent they are in their system. Over time it will result in more subscribers and make a real difference in an industry with no regulation. All potential subscribers should want something along these lines instituted in any tipster they follow, as it will quickly sort the small profitable percentage from the large amount of con artists looking to deceive and make a quick buck.
This may not be the best option, but I wanted to start a conversation about this. What do you think? is it as big an issue as I think it is? How do you think they should be recorded? Add a comment below to keep the discussion going.
Below are how much better or worse my odds were for the Soccer models I follow for the month of January 2014.
Football Elite: 2.5% better (this is recorded against odds in the first email)
Skeeve: -3.4% worse (very small sample size, usually get better odds)
Football Investor: 0.9% better
TFA: -0.5% worse
ClubGOWI: -4.9% worse
