Apr 16th – Apr 22nd +$13,443.79
Another week and another big profit. Any reasonable person would have quit in November when I had dropped $100,000 in the space of 60 days. Lucky for me I’m stubborn. Since then the profits have chugged along nicely with only a few hiccups along the way. Almost $180,000 profit in the last 6 months has turned this year right around and a $150,000 season is now not beyond me. If you asked where I would love to be at the end of the year in November, I would have given anything to break even. It just shows the power of my portfolio, even when my most heavily bet on sport fails, it can still make a profit. I can’t wait for the year where everything performs at once.
It’s been a busy Easter period and I can’t really remember the results this week, which is a good thing. I didn’t have time to watch most of the games and I felt better for it. Hopefully when I become a dad, I’ll have even less time and will only be able to place the bets and then record the results. I’m inching up closer and closer to actually making $250 a day and once that hits, maybe ill have to go even harder for $2,500 a day.. haha. Goals are great, but just like others, as soon as one is reached I like to move the goalposts a little further, which means you just need to enjoy the journey.
This week I added a new Baseball service, which I will call MLB for now. This service is fairly simple. It sends an email every day with the bets (H2H). There are usually between 2-5 bets and I am flat staking at $500 for now and looking to move up to $1000 when the season gets into a groove. So far odds are achievable and results are good. I have also added a new GOWI column and these are the unofficial GOWI bets that I manage to get on.
Onto the results and I had a nice win on the Tennis last night to hopefully kick start its season. $3,450 profit this week. AFL made a further $12,597 and silly me forgot to use a moving bank which has already cost me a large sum, from this week I will be moving the bank weekly. The Rugby made $530 and the NRL had a fine week adding $3,100 profit. So that makes a perfect Sportpunter week. Almost $20k profit from what is clearly the best service on the internet. It was quite laughable as I was exchanging some messages with the so called Tipster I am investigating and he laughed at me for loving Sportpunter so much and then went on to say “he is 10-16 in H2H bets for AFL, that is pathetic”, the fact that I had to explain to a so called Tipster with over 2,500 members (so he says) that the win percentage doesn’t matter and the fact that the average odds were about $6 just shows what a joke this guy is. More in coming weeks, just grabbing as much data as possible as he may have also broken the law and I want to make sure I have everything on file.
With the Sportpunter profit, that means everything else combined made a loss. Seems like I say that every single week. Football Elite has had a terrible ending to the season with a further $3,000 loss (although I missed a win as ClubGOWI opposed it and I had bet that first), Skeeve made $1,400 but I had bet singles on the multis as they were split over 2 days and when I went to put the winnings from the first bet on Whitehawk, the odds had come in and the books I had available wouldn’t take more then $100 on them so I had to leave it. Old trusty Combo Football Investor made $720 and TFA had a great week, only losing $1,300. My faith in ClubGOWI is slowly dissipating as he seems to be treading water lately and his write-ups are way off the mark. While I understand that tipsters want to only advertise the winning tips, he does seem to go out of his way when one of his write-ups is perfect, but never mentions the 5-10 wrong ones before that. Hopefully the last few months have just been a lull and things start moving in the right direction soon. $3,400 lost on the official bets and a further $1,100 on the unofficial ones.
Nics Picks golf has been in a slump and lost $875 this week and the new MLB tipster made $1,400.
Not long now until this horror of a soccer season ends. I won’t know what to do with my Saturday nights. Apart from maybe watch the World Cup. I know these runs don’t last forever, so just trying to enjoy my current position for as long as possible, but at the back of my head I know a draw-down will take place sometime soon. Let’s hope it isn’t for a while yet.
Total profit for the week was $13,443.79
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $3,501,524.84
Profit/Loss: $126,235.13
POT: 3.61%
Bets Placed: 5,965
Won: 2165
Lost: 3501
Half Payout: 34
Refunded: 265
Winning %: 38.2%
Total profit per day: $313,757.22 / 1392 = $225.40
Total Turnover: $13,251,354.37
Total ROI: 2.37%
ATP – SP $403,124.00 $11,331.21 2.8%
week profit/loss: 3449.49
AFL H2H – SP $60,638.00 $17,024.10 28.1%
week profit/loss: 2975
AFL Line – SP $364,735.00 $68,182.81 18.7%
week profit/loss: 9622.44
Rugby SP $31,201.00 $15,453.32 49.5%
week profit/loss: 531.20
NRL SP $25,918.00 $9,853.66 38.0%
week profit/loss: 3119.25
FB Elite $253,000.00 $(5,981.00) -2.4%
week profit/loss: -3030
Skeeve $132,217.00 $3,024.80 2.3%
week profit/loss: 1391
Combo FI $138,215.00 $11,213.88 8.1%
week profit/loss: 720
TFA $650,876.00 $(53,325.88) -8.17%
week profit/loss: -1367.80
ClubGowi $267,948.00 $9,037.14 3.4%
week profit/loss: -3408.60
GOWI $1,115.00 $(1,115.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -1115
NP Win $24,685.84 $(2,287.34) -9.3%
week profit/loss: -875
MLB $10,000.00 $1,431.50 14.3%
week profit/loss: 1431.50
March 2014 Review +$23,068.40
March is the 5th month in a row of profit. Things are really starting to come together for the portfolio and are repeating the same patterns as previous years. The month started with a bang on day 1 and then went on to lose it all by the middle of the month and then made it all back at the end. If you look at the graph you can easily see which days were midweek as they are the ones with the steepest declines. March’s tally takes the profit since Nov 1st to $144,000.
With the start of the AFL, NRL and Super 15, the turnover was 30% up on the previous month ($517,608.50). It should remain at this level for the next month before a big drop as the Soccer season ends. The profit was $23,068.40 at 4.46% ROI.
This month we had 6 out of the 8 sports generate a profit. The only ones to lose money were the Soccer and Basketball models. All the rest performed exceptionally well. They showed that variance produces a massive impact even when looking at results over a month. We had return on investments of 91.2%, 73.5%, 62.1% and 55%. These are clearly unsustainable for a season but are more then welcome to stick around for as long as they like.
The big wins came courtesy of the NHL, Rugby Union, NRL, AFL and Golf. The NHL model has had some dramatic swings this season, it’s good to see it round out the year with an upswing. The start of the AFL season proper has not set the world on fire like I expected. The fact that I am unhappy with a 7.9% return shows what I have come to expect from this service. I should have followed my own rules in regards to NBA betting and stopped at the start of the year, I didn’t and paid the price for it. NBL also did not have a great month nearing the end of its season. I notice this a lot with sports, results tend to change at the end of the season as some teams have motivation to make it to the playoffs while others just want the season to be over and done with, perhaps an angle to look at a little more when time permits. The Rugby Union model was amazing this month with a heap of dogs winning. Golf also made a nice profit and I’m hoping for a more consistent return in the months to come.
Last month Soccer went well but it crashed back down again in March. Football Elite and Skeeve had good months and moved into profit for the year, but Football Investor seems to be repeating the end to last season. Can’t complain as it has had a great year, but maybe something to look at for Stewboss in regards to commitment levels for players at the end of the season. ClubGOWI made a small loss and TFA was once again the main culprit losing $23,500 for the month (but I think he has kicked himself enough for his March results).
March produces what I hope will come to be known as an average month. It falls within my 2-5% ROI figure I assume I can make long term and even though the graph shows how crazy a month can be, I understand that these fluctuations can happen even over a 30 day period. Hopefully the April report sees me push over the $100,000 profit mark and well on my way towards $150,000.
Combined Totals
AFL $91,073.00 $7,155.41 7.9%
Tennis $42,695.00 $2,085.65 4.9%
Soccer $260,566.00 $(17,239.00) -6.6%
Basketball $64,266.00 $(8,288.48) -12.9%
NRL $14,749.00 $8,115.65 55.0%
Golf $6,311.50 $5,759.00 91.2%
NHL $21,053.00 $13,070.27 62.1%
Rugby Union $16,895.00 $12,409.90 73.5%
Individual Models
ATP – SP $42,695.00 $2,085.65 4.9%
AFL H2H – SP $13,700.00 $5,512.65 40.2%
AFL Line – SP $77,373.00 $1,642.76 2.1%
FB Elite $60,000.00 $8,850.00 14.8%
Skeeve $31,060.00 $4,341.30 14.0%
Combo FI $24,000.00 $(5,440.50) -22.7%
6-22 $3,000.00 $(312.50) -10.4%
7-21 $5,250.00 $(1,487.50) -28.3%
7-22 $1,750.00 $57.50 3.3%
8-21 $1,750.00 $1,307.50 74.7%
8-22 $500.00 $602.50 120.5%
31-42 $15,250.00 $(9,063.00) -59.4%
33-41 $3,250.00 $(1,142.50) -35.2%
33-42 $3,250.00 $(1,142.50) -35.2%
TOX $12,750.00 $(2,426.50) -19.0%
STOY $11,750.00 $(1,473.00) -12.5%
STOZ $16,500.00 $(7,219.50) -43.8%
D3-D6 $3,500.00 $(997.50) -28.5%
D3-D7 $2,750.00 $(247.50) -9.0%
NP Win $2,981.50 $5,299.00 177.7%
NBL Totals $8,518.00 $1,345.75 15.8%
NBL Line $23,564.00 $(4,026.84) -17.1%
NBA Totals $19,860.00 $(588.96) -3.0%
NBA H2H $11,524.00 $(5,589.63) -48.5%
NHL Totals $21,853.00 $13,641.47 62.4%
ClubGowi $67,586.00 $(985.30) -1.5%
Rugby SP $16,895.00 $12,409.90 73.5%
NRL SP $14,749.00 $8,115.65 55.0%
Sharing Tipsters
The survey has really opened my eyes up to the sort of issues you are all having and what you would like to see in the book. Thanks to the 80 people who have taken the time to complete it. If you haven’t yet, I would like to get to 100 for as wide a picture as possible. I ask what you struggle with and what you would like to see in the book, so it is in your own best interest to complete the survey. Click here and fill it in.
One question I wanted to address now was from one respondent who asked.
Finding good tipsters is a challenge and hard work so why would anyone want to share their ‘tipsters’ with other punters as this will ultimately impact their own ability to get on.
A fantastic question. He makes a good point. There are so few good tipsters out there and when you do find one, you want as few people to know as possible to keep the edge you have. We know that even the best tipster in the world could become worthless if they have too many people clamoring for early prices. I have noticed it getting a little more difficult to get prices over the last year as more and more people see the success I am having and jump on the bandwagon. I have a pretty good system in place to make sure I am still getting as close as possible to the stated odds and these extra subscribers have not impacted me too greatly at the moment.
Some tipsters have a set limit of subscribers and this does help. I feel that very soon Sportpunter will need to set limits on his subscribers.
Why do I share? It’s a question I have asked myself a few times. What do I gain from letting others know about profitable tipsters? One thing I gain is a reputation of being open and honest, I also gain the trust of many of you and through that trust I have learnt more then I have managed to teach. If it wasn’t for the people reading this blog, I wouldn’t be a member of ClubGOWI, TFA and a few other services. But recently I have been thinking about expanding my portfolio into new systems that people have been suggesting to me and they have asked me to not share these, I have to respect their wishes as they are doing me a favor by alerting me to new potential good tipsters. In the future you may see results from services called tipsterX.
But the key point I have that answers the question above is this. Finding a good tipster is just one part of the puzzle. This site shows a pretty decent portfolio, but I can guarantee that people have followed the exact same tipsters as me and still are struggling to make a profit. You need to have so many other things in place to make this a success. You have to learn where to bet, how to get on at the best prices, creating a bank, knowing how much to bet on each tipster, how to track results, deal with bad runs, and a heap of other factors.
It is like you wanting to get six pack abs. Sharing tipsters is like telling you the exact workouts you need to do to get those abs. But you need so much more then that to succeed. You need the right mindset, to be able to stick to a routine, a proper diet, to track and improve your progress, and so much more.
Finding the right tipster is just 1 step of many to be able to make a long term profit from this. The eBook will show you how I go about evaluating a tipster and will give you an easy to follow road-map to analyse new tipsters you come across. But the book will also deal with much larger issues. Banks, bookies, tracking, and Psychology are just a few of the extra things you need to have a handle on before you can make a profit.
Luckily you get to learn from my mistakes.
Apr 9th – Apr 15th +$17,962.80
Before I begin this weeks post, I would ask a small favor (sorry just watched game of thrones and am now talking like them). If sir would be so kind (and I know it’s a sir because apparently no girls are into betting), can you take a moment (about 2 minutes) to answer a few questions to help me figure out what the most pressing issues you have are and what should go into my ebook. Just follow this link. Thanks in advance.
Now after you read that and said hell no, figure it out yourself… onto this weeks results. Two massive milestones reached. Last week I touched $100k for about 30 minutes, this week I am well into the $100′s. Sitting very pretty at the moment with a small buffer, even though it will hurt me psychologically, I already know that there is a high likelihood I will dip below that mark at some point before the season ends. The second milestone is surpassing the $300,000 profit mark in total. I am now 30% of the way to the ultimate goal of $1,000,000 from this little hobby.
I just wanted to do a bit of maintenance before I move onto the results. As this site has gotten more popular I have started to receive many emails from readers asking many questions, while I am more then happy to answer them, can you please do a little bit of research first. Everything you need to know is on this blog, there is a search bar at the top right, ask it a question before asking me. If you show me you have at least tried to find the answer to a question I will spend some time to answer it, but if you just ask me to rewrite things I have already said on the blog, I will point you back to the website. I have spent more time replying to emails this week then actually placing bets.
Also this week I was asked by a few twitter followers to look into what they felt was a very dodgy tipster, I have thus donned my detectives cap this week and am hard at work sussing this guy out. Full report sometime this week. It will be a teaser of what will eventually go into the book, a few things to look out for when deciding if a tipster is worth your hard earned cash.
Alright, enough blabbering. Where did all that profit come from this week? The simple answer is AFL. A fantastic week with all big bets getting up. For once there were no heart attack games. An almost $20,000 profit. I’m hoping this is the start of the AFL run. ATP broke even, it has been a steady earner for me over the years, but just has not got going this year, still plenty of time to make some profit though. The Rugby had 1 bet and 1 loss of $700. The NRL is showing a bias against Parramatta which has costs me dearly the last few weeks, a further $1,800 lost there. Like NBA, I should have finished NHL betting a few weeks earlier as the end of season is usually poor, $1,000 poorer for not acting sooner. Finally, the NBL season came to an end with a break even result, congrats to Perth who dominated in the final game and an even bigger congrats to Sportpunter on a year that I doubt will ever be beat. Really worried for next season as the bookies made it hard to place a bet over $100 near the end of the season.
Onto the other Tipsters and ClubGOWI released some figures this week even though he doesn’t wish to be known for his results. The Sporting Investor had a few words to say about why he is leaving the service.
“I have no doubt that he has a decent edge. If you’re going to profit from the service to achieve the stated returns you need to be getting bets on within a few minutes of the e-mail arriving in your inbox. Even then I haven’t been able to get all the advertised prices – some have already gone within 30 seconds of reading the advice. Alternatively you could use the information to find bets on side markets that aren’t immediately impacted by the recommendations. With my full time job and family commitments I won’t be in a position to profit from Club Gowi so unless I retire any time soon (unlikely) I will say farewell to Keith.”
I agree with many of those comments. To achieve a profit from the service you need to be at your computer the exact moment the emails are sent, you need to be quick to get near the odds and there is value in using other markets. Now we all know how much I dislike Tipsters quoting unachievable odds, so no point going over old ground. I’ll just show you the stated numbers and my own and let you know that I have not missed a bet and am on within seconds of emails being delivered.
Current Year: ClubGOWI official results
Total bets: 399
Turnover 205,603
Profit +24,774
ROI 12.05%
Current year: Daily25 results
Total bet: 399
Turnover 204,883
Profit +12,913.44
ROI 6.3%
As we can see, a almost 50% difference in results and that equates to 6% worse odds achieved and therefore the same difference in ROI. While I am sure 1 or 2 members will be getting the odds quoted as they are available at the time of release, the vast majority are getting at least 5-6% worse and maybe more. The beauty is that his ROI is so good that even with this large discrepancy the profits are there to be made. I just wish he made it clear to subscribers that the odds are not achievable, as this is the only problem I have with the service. It is a fantastic service which I hope to be a part of for a long time. I know of a number of subscribers who told me they were quitting and I told them long term they would regret that, but many people seem to not stick out bad or even break even runs. This week GOWI made $2,400 thanks to Bubba Watson.
EDIT: It has been brought to my attention that these results would have also included some Antepost bets on the NFL which I would not have placed as I was not a member at the time. I then went back and looked at my odds achieved and was 3.8% worse, not the 6% worse I stated.
Soccer now, and Football Elite lost a further $1,900 this week. After a great few weeks last month, this month has reverted to the norm. Skeeve lost $3,000 but I must commend his email this week as there were no excuses. The Skeeve bet was opposed to a big TFA bet on Braintree and I had to make a hard decision on whether to place both bets, to this day I have never made the right decision, but decided to treat each model independently, and placed the bet, TFA won that bet and it was a crazy game. TFA made $3,100 thanks largely to that one winning bet. Combo football Investor added $1,600 and I’m hoping my star soccer tipster can end the season in a blaze of glory.
Golf lost $500, whats new.
That was a long post, asleep yet? If not and you didn’t do the survey yet then go do it for gods sake. Include your email and I might even send you free chapters as I write them. follow this link.
Total profit for the week was $17,962.80
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $3,377,648.84
Profit/Loss: $112,791.35
POT: 3.34%
Bets Placed: 5,725
Won: 2081
Lost: 3355
Half Payout: 31
Refunded: 258
Winning %: 38.3%
Total profit per day: $300,313.44 / 1385 = $216.83
Total Turnover: $13,127,478.37
Total ROI: 2.29%
ATP – SP $384,726.00 $7,881.72 2.0%
week profit/loss: 97.48
AFL H2H – SP $58,133.00 $14,049.10 24.2%
week profit/loss: 4522.50
AFL Line – SP $343,789.00 $58,560.37 17.0%
week profit/loss: 15259.76
Rugby SP $27,593.00 $14,922.12 54.1%
week profit/loss: -700
NRL SP $22,083.00 $6,734.41 30.5%
week profit/loss: -1835.24
FB Elite $245,000.00 $(2,951.00) -1.2%
week profit/loss: -1940
Skeeve $126,748.00 $1,633.80 1.3%
week profit/loss: -3000
Combo FI $134,715.00 $10,493.88 7.8%
week profit/loss: 1596.50
TFA $616,376.00 $(51,958.08) -8.17%
week profit/loss: 3115
ClubGowi $256,823.00 $12,445.74 4.8%
week profit/loss: 2401.80
NP Win $23,810.84 $(1,412.34) -5.9%
week profit/loss: -500
NHL Totals $279,462.00 $6,043.94 2.2%
week profit/loss: -1055
NBL Totals $102,837.00 $30,179.14 29.3%
week profit/loss: 1000
NBL Line $106,187.00 $22,074.83 20.8%
week profit/loss: -1000
Deck of cards
In an earlier post I mentioned how 52 systems was a bit much for The Football Analyst and how even just using a few of these systems in your portfolio would create some many different variations for his subscribers. This video does an excellent job of showing you the chance of recreating the same shuffle. A good waste of 4 minutes.
PuntingPal Review.
It seems every morning I could write about how disgusting the bookmaking industry is. I wish it wasn’t as it makes my life so much harder.
Lets start with Puntingpal shall we. This was a new Vanuatu based bookmaker owned by John Dow jnr who entered the Australian market. They pay no Australian taxes, pay the racing body no money and have a tiny tax rate in Vanuatu. Now as a punter, I am not concerned by this, my concern is will they take a bet. By paying no taxes, they have an even bigger margin to play with and should be happy with as many clients as possible. Their website states “We hope to be able to provide a new service to all of our customers that is unrivalled throughout the bookmaking fraternity. Clients are no longer just a number like they are with the corporate bookies. You are all our number one priority and we will strive to make your punting experience enjoyable.“. They may HOPE for something, but that doesn’t make it real. I hope that this bookie goes under very soon (this may come true).
I was told about the website from a friend and joined up (there is no join button on the website, you need to call or email them to create an account), I took up the signup offer of $500 for $500 and on the weekend they seemed desperate for money and offered a $1,000 for $1,000 to all clients (never a good sign). I off course availed myself of this offer. The first week I was a member they took my AFL bets in full, I believe one was for $5,000. The next week they took half the bet amount and this past week they would only take $1,000 bets (they took more just before the game started). As I don’t trust a bookie based in Vanuatu, I always make sure to withdraw at the end of the week. This morning I woke to an email that said “We are writing to inform you of our decision to suspend all activity on your account…free bets have been cancelled. We appreciate your understanding in this matter.“.
To see how difficult it is to create a bookmaking company in Vanuatu I called the Vanuatu licensing review and audit department and asked what I would need to do to open a bookmaker. They were very happy to walk me through the process and it is quite simple. I would pay 0.1% tax on fixed odds bets, 2.5% on gross monthly earnings and a $35,000 application fee with a $30,000 yearly fee. That’s it. $65,000 to get started and they seemed very willing to get me signed up. It seems anyone can start a sportsbook. If anyone is keen for this it would not be hard to create a sportsbook that would rival any Australian bookmaker and if a shoddy operator like Betstar can get bought for $25million then this seems an easy way to make a lot of money.
Anyway, what I would suggest you do is take Puntingpals sign up offer, take up any bonus offers, but never ever bet for any other reason other to take the bonus money. If you currently have an account, withdraw immediately and only deposit if they offer a bonus. These bookmakers need to learn that if they can’t offer a fair service then we the public will not stand for it.
I’m sure they will get an influx of customers from this post as the site was relatively unknown before. They do offer 1.95 odds on AFL lines, your account will only last a few weeks, but take what you can. Another despicable book. One day we might see a fair operator join the Australian market, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
EDIT: within minutes of posting this article I had numerous readers email me with other dodgy things this bookmaker has done, taking free bets away, taking fixed odds away and the usual crap from rogue bookmakers. I would say don’t risk any money here.
Apr 2nd – Apr 8th +$875.57
What a week. I had a good laugh with my April Fools joke, a massive milestone was reached and pretty much ended right back where I started. With all sports currently on at the same time, my daily swings are massive and it’s a real roller-coaster of emotions. If someone invented a device that wouldn’t allow me to see sports scores until the end of the week I would pay handsomely for it.
At 6:50 pm AEDT I hit $100,000 profit in a season for the first time ever. A big moment for me and I know how fleeting these moments are so I took a moment for a smile and then received a high 5. I am totally against high 5s in general but this one felt pretty good. The euphoria lasted a whole 30 minutes as my next big bet lost and I was back into the 90′s. That was followed up with more losses to take me back to pretty much where I started the week. Ahh, the life of a gambler, I don’t recommend it.
If you know me (and you should after 4 years of bleeding on this blog) then you know when I set my mind to something I make sure I do it right and make it perfect. As I have decided to produce an ebook, I am going to make sure it is the best thing ever written in this field. Over the coming months I’ll be asking for your feedback and to fill in some surveys so I can create something of immense value to anyone who has ever placed a bet. This week I signed up to the Zero to Launch course, which is a $2,500 online course (I have never signed up to anything online before apart from tipsters), but I feel this will help me produce the best product I can. I will invest not only money but my time into this thing. I see at least 2 full months needed just to write the initial draft and in that time I will not be taking on any freelance or consulting work which alone will cost me over $15,000. I just hope I can create something that you all love. It will be an interesting experience, it will be the first time I have sold anything and I will be up for criticism just like all these tipsters are once they start taking money for a service.
Talking about criticising tipsters and Stewboss made a comment on a post which deserves a response. I asked on the blog if I was being too harsh recently and received this reply.
I tweeted earlier today that I was going to come on here and write about balance and so here it is…
I feel that the musings on here are overly negative, especially when it comes to football (I refuse to call it soccer). Take today’s post as an example….
“Ok, so those soccer systems made a loss, lets look at the others. FB Elite lost 6 from 7 and the 7th was a lucky 90th minute goal. $3,360 lost this week and back to break even. Combo Football Investorturned the recent poor run around with $2,670 profit and ClubGOWIadded $2,100.”
One sentence about Football Investor and that manages to combine a back-handed compliment with a negative reference to the recent bad run. What bad run is that? I think the Combo system has had one losing week in the last two months!!
That’s some bad run Steve!!
Contrast this with 11 whole paragraphs about Skeeve and TFA..
See what I mean about balance?
Not all of the services / models / sports will make money all of the time but it does seem like Football receives a regular bashing on here.
What happens when the inevitable losing run hits the Combo system? Can we look forward to an increase in column inches then?
Don’t get me wrong, this is a great blog. One of the best on the net but like I said before, the balance is skewed on the negative side.
Rant Over!
Stewboss
Now, while he is right that the blog has gotten more negative recently I feel that it’s very easy for these Tipsters to say one thing and do the exact opposite. While I am being told that the losing runs get more coverage and the winning runs barely anything, the exact opposite happens with Tipsters emails. A bad week is followed by a short email saying something along the lines of “bad week, lets move on quickly”, while the good weeks receive longer emails explaining how well they went. This is evident from every single tipster. As I keep repeating time and time again, this blog is not here for Tipsters, yes they benefit from extra signups and all the free advertising, but the blog is here for me and people who already do or are thinking about joining a service. I am very harsh when there is a bad run, but when a Tipster is doing well I am also the one who shines a light on the service and provides them with new subscribers. I do respect the tipsters I follow but will never pander to them. That’s what sets me apart from almost all other bloggers in this niche.
Another thought I had this week was that there should be a tipping service based entirely on the weather, someone who can read a weather chart could potentially make a killing. I would subscribe to a service which did this. I have seen numerous examples over the past few months in regards to the AFL and the total line. It is clear a few days in advance that there will be rain (and a lot of it) and the total points for the matches barely move. All these matches go well under. The same can be done with trading the cricket, if a shower is about to come over the draw price will go out when it starts to rain and the players are pulled off the field. I’m sure this also has an impact on Football games and any other sport played outdoors.
Let’s quickly gloss over the results this week as it was a break even week and I’ve wasted long enough typing.
ATP finally started again last night and made $1,400. For all the distraught AFL caused me this week it ended down just $540. I tuned into the last 5 minutes of my first ever Rugby game and had a big bet on the underdog, they had the match with 5 seconds to go and lost the ball, resulting in the other team scoring and tying the game. Cost me a fortune but just shows once again why I should never ever ever watch games. The NRL made $1,350, The NHL lost $2,200 and the NBL broke even and has only 1 or 2 games left in the season. The Golf lost $700.
Onto Soccer and we had a 100% week for Skeeve. $10,000 profit. Last two weeks have been really good and with a replica for the last few rounds, the potential is there to make a decent profit for the year. ClubGOWI also made $4,000 and I am taking more non red type bets with this service. These can be found by reading the detailed analysis that is sent in each email. That means that my numbers might not exactly replicate those of the service, as Keith doesn’t want his service to be seen as a tipping service, I see no problem with posting my personal results. TFA continues its killer season and I’m not sure if Graeme will be around next season, his emails seem to suggest that it is all up to the last few weeks results, in my opinion this is pretty silly. TFA lost a further $3,200 this week. Combo Football Investor also lost $2,700 and is on a bit of a draw-down. Football Elite was by far the worst performer of the week with all bets losing for a $6,000 loss.
I once again want to thank all the readers who commented on the blog or sent me emails (even the ones calling me an idiot for quitting). Some of the comments really made me feel special. Thank you all.
Total profit for the week was $875.57
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $3,299,454.84
Profit/Loss: $94,828.55
POT: 2.87%
Bets Placed: 5,598
Won: 2026
Lost: 3287
Half Payout: 30
Refunded: 255
Winning %: 38.1%
Total profit per day: $282,350.64 / 1378 = $204.89
Total Turnover: $13,049,284.37
Total ROI: 2.16%
ATP – SP $371,114.00 $7,784.24 2.1%
week profit/loss: 1392.69
AFL H2H – SP $54,118.00 $9,526.60 17.6%
week profit/loss: -879.80
AFL Line – SP $324,891.00 $43,300.61 13.3%
week profit/loss: 340.68
Rugby SP $26,893.00 $15,622.12 58.1%
week profit/loss: -580
NRL SP $18,269.00 $8,569.65 46.9%
week profit/loss: 1368.50
FB Elite $240,000.00 $(1,011.00) -0.4%
week profit/loss: -6000
Skeeve $123,748.00 $4,633.80 3.7%
week profit/loss: 10060.20
Combo FI $133,215.00 $8,897.38 6.7%
week profit/loss: -2755
TFA $603,876.00 $(55,073.08) -9.12%
week profit/loss: -3191.50
ClubGowi $245,423.00 $10,043.94 4.1%
week profit/loss: 4010.04
NP Win $23,310.84 $(912.34) -3.9%
week profit/loss: -700
NHL Totals $278,407.00 $7,098.94 2.5%
week profit/loss: -2214.74
NBL Totals $101,637.00 $29,179.14 28.7%
week profit/loss: 739.50
NBL Line $105,187.00 $23,074.83 21.9%
week profit/loss: -715
BetButler in real trouble. Get your money out.
This one isn’t an April fools. If you have money in Betbutler, start trying to get it out now. It will take weeks to get out if at all. So make your withdrawal and call them every few hours chasing up your withdrawal.
This story has been waiting for 4 weeks as a friend was trying to get money out himself and didn’t want an even bigger rush and as he was the one telling me about it I wanted to respect his wishes, but he is still waiting now and has given me the go ahead to post. There have also been topics on the SBC forum about this very issue too.
My friends story
“I made a withdrawal in late Feb and the max withdrawal is £2,000 and their terms say it takes 5 days to process, after 9 days I was still waiting so I emailed them and waited, I emailed again and after a further 3 days I rang them. The phone operator was helpful and said he would process it that day. I received the payment later that day. After this experience I wanted to get the rest of my balance out and requested another withdrawal. After another 8 days I had no payment or reply and rang them, I was promised the withdrawal would be processed in 24 hours, I rang 3 days in a row and was promised the same thing every time and am still waiting. I fear for my money and looking at twitter I see the same situation with many others. I just hope I can get the rest of my money out before they go bust and I will never deposit there again”
I personally have never had a Betbutler account and these complaints are just ones I have heard. Again, this is just a warning and they might be financially stable. But by the look of things that is not true. The same issues have been ongoing for over a year but it seems much worse now.
BetButler started with a pretty simple idea. Have one account with them instead of making a heap of accounts with all other bookies. You would get great prices and never be limited. Pretty simple concept and appealing for many people. They would take a small percentage of your winnings and also kickbacks from sportsbook affiliate schemes. This made sense and would have worked well as a small business. But the people behind it didn’t want a small business, they wanted scale and to make a fortune, so they went on a marketing spree and got all the mug punters they could. This influx in customers also probably showed a weakness in the system as bookmakers stopped allowing them to bet, if a customer couldn’t get a bet matched then what was the point of this broker? I’m sure the smart (cough) people at Betbutler then convened a meeting and tried to figure out how they could make money. One smart cookie (double cough) saw that most of their players lost money to the books and in a stroke of genius (triple cough) said “Why don’t we just take the bets ourselves, simple, we will make a fortune”. I think this is when BetButler decided to become a bookie without any bookmaking experience. Due to their own incompetence they are now in deep debt and are slow paying customers and offering crazy incentives to get more people to deposit.
They recently updated their terms and conditions and removed the following clause:
1.3 Any monies deposited with us are protected in the event of our insolvency by virtue of such monies being held by our bank in designated client accounts separately from our own accounts. Any monies deposited with us in your account shall not bear any interest.
This means that your money used to be in a ring fenced account. If betbutler the entity went down your money was still safe. They could not use your money to pay their staff, liabilities and so on. They have now taken this away and can use your money to pay themselves, their debts, their marketing budget and so on. I really have no idea how the Gambling commission have allowed this to happen.
They have also started offering crazy bonuses and odds that are out of line with the market. I personally do not see them lasting out the world cup, especially if England win (hahahahaha, no chance of that). Once again, this is all hearsay from what I have been told personally, seen on twitter and on many forums. My advice is to always be safe in these situations and get your money out asap. You need to be vigilant with online bookmakers. Sadly the regulators do nothing at all apart from take fees to give them a license that is pretty much worthless.
April Fools. muhahahaha
I must say I had a good chuckle yesterday, I really didn’t expect the response I got from all of you. I thought I would have been rumbled very quickly. I guess I did a good job with the buildup and made the story not totally unlikely. I let it go all day as I wanted to get the UK guys as well and knowing the responses from the aussie guys would also help with the charade made it all the more sweeter (trust the Poms to be more cynical and catch on quicker). Then I felt horrible, you were all so nice and understanding. If I was on your end I would have been calling me some very family unfriendly words.
So lets get to what was true and what wasn’t.
First, The baby news is true. I’m expecting my first in late September and am very excited about this. I’ll be doing everything I can to be a stay at home dad and that means this site is going to have to start paying some bills. I love this site and will continue to post for many years to come. I also want it to become a resource for beginners and experts alike, I’ll be producing an ebook and making some tools for the more professional among us. Will have to get my skates on as I have 6 months before I’ll be knee deep in baby poo.
In regards to the job with the “new” aussie bookie. That is a complete lie. There is a new bookmaker starting soon, Matthew Tripp who sold Sportsbet many years ago has now bought the terrible Betezy brand. He will be re-branding it Beteasy.com.au. Many of your comments were saying that you were excited about a new book that might actually give people a fair go. Sadly don’t expect anything different from Beteasy. It will be the same old thing, they will start off saying that they will take on anyone and when they see they can make more money by kicking out winners it won’t take them long to be just like every other bookmaker. I have been offered jobs by a number of the big bookmakers before and have been through interviews and have always turned down the offers. If Beteasy is up for giving everyone a fair go then I would be happy to talk to them. I can already see the twitter comments when they start limiting customers. Mark my words, this will be one of the poorest ones (Beteasy hey, more like betnoteasy).
As mentioned above, the site lives to fight another day and hopefully many more. The stretch goal is to take $1,000,000 from this hobby of mine and I won’t stop till I get there (or lose my initial bank). I would like to devote myself to this whole gambling thing a little more, currently I spend 10 minutes a week on the site and a few hours on the placing of bets. I have a long list of articles I want to write about what is really needed to make a profit from this game and the current state of the bookmaking and tipping industry. For the next 6 months I’ll be concentrating on this site, worst case no one cares and doesn’t buy what I create and I go back to normal work. Best case, I can make enough to get by and the betting profit is the cherry on top.
I really do feel sort of bad after the response and promise that April fool jokes will only happen every 4 years. I think I pulled it off pretty well, sprinkling in many half truths and possible lies. I also posted about the pregnancy on Facebook today to friends and family and that worked a treat too. Its been a fun day.
Daily25 closing down – joining the darkside
Sadly this will be my last post. After 3 years and 9 months the Daily25 website will be closing down. I started this site to track my progress from absolute novice in the gambling world to what I hoped would one day place me into that rare few percentage of long term winners. I had hoped to make $10,000 a year (hence the daily 25 site name) by following tipsters and that quickly changed to trying to make $100,000 a year. Just yesterday I was once again 1 win shy of hitting that $100,000 mark that has eluded me for the past 3 years. There are still 3 months left for year 4 and I’m sure I will achieve the goal of this site in that time frame.
I feel quite pleased with myself that I not only managed to prove that it was possible to make a profit by creating a portfolio of tipsters, but that I am the only profit and loss blog that has been around for this long. The vast majority start out with great intentions and after their first downturn just disappear. I have been through some very rough patches, but have kept blogging throughout and am quite proud of that.
To the 1,000 readers a day that come to this blog, I want to say thanks. For the first year I think I was lucky to get 1,000 people a month. It means a lot to me that you take the time to read my ramblings each and every week. This site has helped me meet so many great people and I have learned more from you then I have taught on this blog. It is due to this blogs existence that I am actually closing it down.
I have been writing about the abysmal treatment people receive from the Australian bookmakers. They are on par as the worst bookmakers in the world along with their owners (the UK bookies). Their business models see them invite everyone in and then kick out anyone but losing gamblers. It is a model that will see them earn millions very quickly, but will kill them in the long term. A few months ago after blasting another bookie for their pathetic service I received an email from a new entity starting up in Australia who wanted to talk to me about their new venture. Thinking it would be good fodder for another blog rant, I continued discussions over the phone and then in person. Over several months, talks developed into a job offer at a salary I couldn’t say no to.
Now I know how this sounds, and to be honest, I hate myself too. I have joined the dark side. But let me explain a few things which led my thinking. First some great news for me. I will be welcoming my first kid into the world in late September. This is a massive life change for me and I wanted some stability. A bad betting year could see me struggling financially and when it was just me and my girlfriend that was fine, but with a child in the picture, that changes everything. The last few years have been very stressful, and even though I have made close to $300,000 profit in that time, I am still not 100% certain that I can continue to make a profit. This year has really shown me the potential downside to this. The goal was to make $100k from the gambling business each year and now that I have been guaranteed that with 100% certainty then I just could not turn it down. I will continue to follow my portfolio and hope to make a good second income, but now the stress of needing it to perform is gone. That stress also led me to be very negative on this blog and if you are a long term reader you may have noticed this too. Recently there have been a few fights between myself and the tipsters I follow and I have been unhappy with the way I have conducted myself.
At the moment I can not discuss details as the new entity is still yet to open, but if you pay any attention to the Australian bookmaking scene then you could easily guess who I am referring to. This new bookmaker is set to shake up the current shitty Australian scene (I hope) and allow winning punters to get a decent bet on at decent prices. It’s a move back to the traditional principles of bookmaking and one that I feel will see it destroy the current incumbents. My role will be encompassing many areas. The main role will be player advocate. The role is to make sure that everyone is given a fair go. I will also write articles for the blog, and oversee the social media aspects. All these roles fit in with the previous freelance work I have been doing.
It has been one hell of a ride and I hope I have given you a peak into what it takes to make a profit from this very tough game. If not, then at least I hope I have given you a laugh or two. I understand this is the worst thing I could have done but financially for me it is the only thing that makes sense.
Thank you all and good night.
Steve
Edit: this was an April Fools day joke, the full story of how I got you all can be read here
