June 12th – June 18th +$9,303.98
A good week to take the total back over $50,000 profit for the year. With less then 2 weeks left in the year I’m hoping for a strong end to what has been a real up and down season. The AFL finally turned around this week but as always when one performs, another disappoints. That was MLBs role this week.
AFL Line bets went a perfect 100% for a profit of $8,000, the H2H bets lost $900. The start of the grass season has been amazing for the Tennis model and I can’t wait for Wimbledon. I will be there this year and am really looking forward to a few days in London. $6,500 profit for the week. The only downside this week was MLB was a loss of $4,400.
Hoping for a strong AFL week again to start the bank rolling. The size and quantity of MLB bets seems to be increasing, hoping I get on the good side of variance this week also.
Total profit for the week was $9,303.98
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $3,820,722.91
Profit/Loss: $50,128.58
POT: 1.31%
Bets Placed: 5,933
Won: 2,430
Lost: 3,337
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 163
Winning %: 42.1%
Profit per day: $166,212.30 / 1084 = $153.32
AFL H2H – SP $77,131.00 $11,359.18 14.7%
week profit/loss: -875
AFL Line – SP $419,548.00 $(3,499.12) -0.8%
week profit/loss: 8088.80
ATP – SP $481,530.00 $15,681.69 3.3%
week profit/loss: 6544.71
OTP NRL $39,000.00 $(3,013.25) -7.7%
week profit/loss: -90
MLB H2H $129,898.00 $17,336.46 13.3%
week profit/loss: -3639.60
MLB Totals $202,764.00 $574.93 0.3%
week profit/loss: -724.93
June 5th – June 11th +$3,720.24
I check how many visitors I get to my site once in a while and even though this blog is more to keep myself accountable it’s nice to see that people take an interest in what I’m trying to achieve. I guess that’s the goal for most of you reading this blog. To emulate what little success I have had. I’m sure there are a few waiting for my demise and that day may come, if I was a betting man I would say there is a 30% chance of that still happening. But every now and again I get a comment on a post that boosts my ego. I got one this week so thought I would share it in the hopes of others telling me how wonderful I am. If you have read the blog for a while, why not post a comment. Even if it’s to let me know what a dick I am.
Matt W says June 10, 2013 at 5:36 am
Long time reader, first time commentor here.
I love your honest, witty writing style.
I’d love to buy your manifesto!
Why don’t you sit down at a cafe over there in Italy and bash it out?
I’d love to read a book your wrote! Maybe include tips about mindset (yours is awesome), Best bookies, mistakes you made. Also, I’d love to know which credit cards you’ve used to fund your accounts, and which offered the best frequent flyer bonuses.
Hope your luck changes. I’m sure it will.
Ciao
Matt W.
So after the self praise, lets move onto this weeks results.
AFL sucked again this week. Losing another $11,000. Over the last 3 weeks the total loss has been $25,000. A very worrying sign. The 3 big bets all lost this week while the smaller ones won. Need that to reverse very quickly. This is one of the models I pin my hopes on each season. I really expect nothing less then $75,000 profit from it. I know that’s asking a lot, but I think its the best model I have ever followed. Being a new player based model this year, I should have been more cautious. Time will tell.
The good news this week is that everything else made a profit, but sadly by everything I mean MLB, Tennis and NRL. Baseball had an amazing week to arrest the slide it had been on. H2H made $5,900 and Totals impressed with $5,500 profit. A great week. Tennis made a small $1,700 profit and OTP NRL made the same amount.
A profit is a profit, but just 1 of those AFL losers turning into a win and it makes it a $10,000 week. I’ll keep plugging away, only a few weeks left for year 3. Who knows where it will end.
Total profit for the week was $3,720.24
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $3,760,832.91
Profit/Loss: $40,824.60
POT: 1.09%
Bets Placed: 5,840
Won: 2,384
Lost: 3,294
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 159
Winning %: 42.0%
Profit per day: $156,908.32 / 1077 = $145.69
AFL H2H – SP $76,256.00 $12,234.18 16.0%
week profit/loss: -1853.75
AFL Line – SP $410,663.00 $(11,587.92) -2.8%
week profit/loss: -9314.50
ATP – SP $468,931.00 $9,136.98 1.9%
week profit/loss: 1750.83
OTP NRL $36,250.00 $(2,923.25) -8.1%
week profit/loss: 1755
MLB H2H $113,987.00 $20,976.06 18.4%
week profit/loss: 5914.61
MLB Totals $183,894.00 $1,299.86 0.7%
week profit/loss: 5468.05
May 2013 Review -$47,938.29
What a month. The last 3 months have been amazing. This month brought things back to earth though. Close to $50,000 lost in May. Looking at the overall results in my spreadsheet there is 1 big sport that contributed. Well actually all 5 sports I bet on made a loss this month, but the big one was Soccer, and in particular TFA Euro.
$416,222.00 bet for a loss of $(47,938.29). A ROI of -11.52%. As mentioned last month. A decline in total turnover as the Soccer season ended. June will see total bet amount in the $300,000 range.
Onto individual models and AFL had $117,074.00 bet for a loss of $(1,575.01) which is a ROI of -1.3%. The H2H bets actually made $4,656.65 while the line bets lost $(6,231.66).
Tennis had a poor month with $52,070.00 bet, loss of $(6,828.77) and ROI of -13.1%.
Baseball had a similar loss to AFL, with $123,703.00 bet for a loss of $(1,776.01) which is a ROI of -1.4%. Again the H2H bets did well with $8,730.91 profit, but dragged down by the Totals with a loss of $(10,506.92).
NRL OnThePunt tipster had a very poor month, $12,500.00 bet, a loss of $(3,301.25) and a ROI of -26.4%. With a smaller number of bets the ROI will always be fairly large both ways.
All that’s left is Soccer and the numbers tell the story. $110,875.00 bet for a massive loss of $(34,457.25) which is a mammoth ROI of -31.1%. XX Draws and TFA Euro were the main culprits here. XX Draws lost $7,461 while TFA Euro racked up a $23,261 loss. I think it won about 3 games from the 50 odd bets to close out the season. Combo and FB Elite also contributed with losses of $(3,916.00) and $(1,724.00) respectively.
A shit of a month and one I want to forget about as soon as possible. Hoping for AFL to start a great run and for MLB Totals to start making some profit. Tennis could also do with a reversal. The final month of year 3 has now started and I’m hoping May was a mere blip on the radar and I end the year with over $50,000 profit.
May 29th – Jun 4th -$16,302.73
Currently living La Dolce Vita (The Good life) here in Italy, but that is not being reflected in my betting. Another shocking week and with just 1 month left for the year, the total profit is in the balance, it could easily end in negative territory or make around $50,000, which is probably the lowest possible level I would be happy with. The drop since early May has been over $50,000, so a repeat of that and I’ll be lamenting all the work and worry for the past 365 days. These are by far the biggest drops I have had to deal with in the past 3 years.
You may have noticed the site down yesterday, I had forgotten to renew the domain and my hosting company was no help either. All sorted now though and there shouldn’t be an issue until next year when I forget again. Will be interesting to see where the total profit is in a years time.
This week and again the AFL didn’t perform, my early season confidence has all but gone now. A $11,500 loss for the week. The French open has been very poor with most favs winning, which means a loss for the ATP model of $1,600. OTP NRL lost a margin by half a point and ended down $600. MLB totals is doing my head in, with another $4,500 loss. I am clearly getting great lines as all my bets are beating the closing lines by a massive margin, they just are not winning. Whereas the H2H bets don’t come in and they are doing magnificent.
The Soccer season finally came to an end. The next two weeks will see my summary of every soccer model I followed and if I will be following them next season. XX Draws ended the season with $1,100 profit for the week.
So they say a change is as good as a holiday, instead I went on a holiday and my great run changed. 1 more month to go and here’s hoping its a great one.
Total loss for the week was $16,302.73
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $3,695,024.91
Profit/Loss: $37,104.36
POT: 1.00%
Bets Placed: 5,760
Won: 2,339
Lost: 3,261
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 157
Winning %: 41.8%
Profit per day: $153,188.08 / 1070 = $143.16
AFL H2H – SP $72,834.00 $14,087.93 19.3%
week profit/loss: -1178
AFL Line – SP $390,363.00 $(2,273.42) -0.6%
week profit/loss: -10290.57
ATP – SP $461,518.00 $7,386.15 1.6%
week profit/loss: -1653.22
OTP NRL $32,500.00 $(4,678.25) -14.4%
week profit/loss: -580
MLB H2H $100,017.00 $15,061.45 15.1%
week profit/loss: 742.47
MLB Totals $166,941.00 $(4,168.19) -2.5%
week profit/loss: -4498.41
XX Draws $70,500.00 $(12,137.50) -17.2%
week profit/loss: -500
XX Draws Under $70,500.00 $(2,720.00) -3.9%
week profit/loss: 790
XX Extended $155,500.00 $12,831.00 8.3%
week profit/loss: 760
XX Extended Under $155,194.00 $2,300.00 1.5%
week profit/loss: 105
May 22nd – May 28th -$7,281.68
A new country, but another one of those weeks.
That’s right, I’m now living in Milan. I thought it was about time to take this show on the road. If you’ve been a long time reader then you will know about my love of travelling. The last big trip I did, I had a trusty monkey placing my bets, this time it’s all me. I thought with the soccer season ending, now was a perfect time to really give travelling and betting a go. The fact that it is getting cold in Australia and warm in Europe also helped with my decision. For the next few months I am only betting on Tennis, MLB, AFL, and NRL. Tennis takes up 20 minutes a day, MLB 10 minutes, AFL an hour a week and NRL 30 minutes a week. That’s a total of 5 hours a week for the next 3 months.
My travel plans include a few months in Milan, London, New York and various US cities. All up 6 months of chasing the sun. Italy has already thrown up a few issues, with a filter in place to not allow betting on sites that are not licensed in the country. Lucky I was prepared via a VPN and logmein.
This week was another very frustrating one, the slow weekly climb happened again and on Friday night I went to bed sitting at $70,000 profit for the year. My hopes were high that the last month was just a blip and I was back to my winning ways. I woke up to the worst MLB day in history and massive losses in the AFL. By the end of Saturday I was back at $58,000. So very frustrating.
The AFL managed to make up for most of the Saturday losses and ended up down just $1,500 for the week. Tennis lost the same amount. Onthepunt NRL has had a bad start to the season and lost another $1,100 this week. After losing $7,000 in one day, the MLB model almost recouped all those losses, ending the week with a loss of $400. XX Draws lost a whopping $4,000 and to be honest, I’ll be glad to see the season end. I will be doing a write up on each soccer model when the season has ended this weekend. FB Elite went 1 from 2 to be the only model in profit with a $1,300 gain.
This week we have the French Open so a large number of bets. But it is also inter-league in the MLB, so no bets until Saturday. The only other bets will come from the AFL, NRL and possibly FB Elite and XX Draws.
Hoping for a pickup in results, but if this year has taught me anything, it’s that I have no say over when and where the profits will come from.
Ciao
Total loss for the week was $7,281.68
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $3,621,631.91
Profit/Loss: $53,407.09
POT: 1.47%
Bets Placed: 5,668
Won: 2,302
Lost: 3,210
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 153
Winning %: 41.8%
Profit per day: $169,490.81 / 1063 = $159.44
AFL H2H – SP $69,490.00 $15,265.93 22.0%
week profit/loss: 468.75
AFL Line – SP $368,044.00 $8,017.15 2.2%
week profit/loss: -2030.50
ATP – SP $443,541.00 $9,039.37 2.0%
week profit/loss: -1508.72
OTP NRL $30,000.00 $(4,098.25) -13.7%
week profit/loss: -1067.50
MLB H2H $91,239.00 $14,318.98 15.7%
week profit/loss: -2193.97
MLB Totals $151,466.00 $330.22 0.2%
week profit/loss: 1775.76
XX Draws $70,000.00 $(11,637.50) -16.6%
week profit/loss: -1000
XX Draws Under $70,000.00 $(3,510.00) -5.0%
week profit/loss: -1000
XX Extended $154,500.00 $12,071.00 7.8%
week profit/loss: -1530
XX Extended Under $154,194.00 $2,195.00 1.4%
week profit/loss: -545.50
FB Elite $298,819.00 $(29,878.97) -10.0%
week profit/loss: 1320
May 15th – May 21st +$11,610.35
This week, thanks to AFL I recouped last weeks profit. Now I need this coming week to recover the $30,000 loss the week before.
AFL had a great week, bringing in $15,000 profit. The banks are slowly increasing and the bets are getting bigger each week, I’ll be very happy if they are doubled by the end of the year.
Pretty much everything else broke even, making a few hundred or losing a few hundred. The only disaster was TFA Euro again, for the 3rd straight week it was 1 win from a heap of bets. I have never seen a run this bad, and I have followed FB Elite all season. Another $6,000 loss for the week. These Euro bets were at $30,000 profit earlier in the season, after the last month they now sit at $1,700. Talking of Fb Elite, just the one bet this week and finally a winner, but his 3 season long bets all lost, so a tiny win for the week. Only a week left for some leagues, but Soccer is pretty much over for the season. Not a great season at all, with only a 1.1% ROI. I will do a more detailed post when all leagues are complete.
A very nice return this week. I’m hoping next week will see me get close to that $200,000 profit mark once again.
Total profit for the week was $11,610.35
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $3,552,030.91
Profit/Loss: $60,688.77
POT: 1.71%
Bets Placed: 5,567
Won: 2,265
Lost: 3,151
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 148
Winning %: 41.8%
Profit per day: $176,772.49 / 1056 = $167.39
AFL H2H – SP $67,617.00 $14,797.18 21.9%
week profit/loss: 4347.50
AFL Line – SP $352,909.00 $10,047.65 2.8%
week profit/loss: 10591.50
ATP – SP $431,842.00 $10,548.09 2.4%
week profit/loss: -358.91
OTP NRL $27,500.00 $(3,030.75) -11.0%
week profit/loss: 477.50
MLB H2H $80,105.00 $16,512.95 20.6%
week profit/loss: 847.68
MLB Totals $133,206.00 $(1,445.54) -1.1%
week profit/loss: -894.17
XX Draws $69,000.00 $(10,637.50) -15.4%
week profit/loss: 450
XX Draws Under $69,000.00 $(2,510.00) -3.6%
week profit/loss: 1015
XX Extended $153,000.00 $13,571.00 8.9%
week profit/loss: -960
XX Extended Under $152,694.00 $2,740.50 1.8%
week profit/loss: 577
FB Elite $294,819.00 $(31,198.97) -10.6%
week profit/loss: 816
Skeeve $148,919.00 $(1,833.64) -1.2%
week profit/loss: 0
Combo FI $252,229.00 $14,434.50 5.7%
week profit/loss: 765
6-22 $73,315.00 $7,766.75 10.6%
week profit/loss: 0
7-21 $117,485.00 $10,867.00 9.2%
week profit/loss: 0
7-22 $49,185.00 $4,625.25 9.4%
week profit/loss: 0
8-21 $57,125.00 $9,032.88 15.8%
week profit/loss: 0
8-22 $31,513.00 $1,584.13 5.0%
week profit/loss: 0
E1-E7 $75,830.00 $(1,589.74) -2.1%
week profit/loss: -1188.75
E2-E6 $87,412.00 $(2,502.61) -2.9%
week profit/loss: -2250
E2-E7 $44,625.00 $4,037.26 9.0%
week profit/loss: -1500
E3-E6 $32,250.00 $(923.25) -2.9%
week profit/loss: -750
E3-E7 $18,375.00 $2,673.75 14.6%
week profit/loss: -375
May 8th – May 14th -$10,405.35
Another terrible week, the end of the soccer season can’t come soon enough. It seems easy to say that the soccer results are due to the fact that some teams have no motivation at the end of the season, but all the models past performance shows a profit during these periods, so it’s just variance this year. It’s been a real comedown from just 2 weeks ago, where I was 1 win short of reaching $100,000 for the year. Just need to keep plugging away and hope for another run like I had at the start of the year. This poor run can easily last for 6-8 months like it did at the start of the season. The sad fact of the matter is that I will have many more lean periods then amazing periods, I just need to accept that.
The highlight this week was the return to form of the AFL model, for many subscribers it would have been an amazing week. It was a good week for me, but another half point loss really put a dampener on things. This is the 4th one this year and I have been the wrong side on all of them bar 1. Hopefully the next half point result will go in my favor. A profit of just over $10,000 for the week.
Tennis has been on a bad run these last 2 weeks, losing a further $2,200 this week. With the French coming up, this doesn’t bode to well. Onthepunt Nrl Guru went 0 from 3 for -$2,500. The MLB H2H’s continued a good run with another $2,000 profit, but totals have gone completely off the boil. A $6,000 loss this week and that brings the totals into negative for the first time this season. I’m very glad I decided to follow both this season, as by looking at the histories, I should have only followed totals.
I didn’t think the TFA Euros could get any worse then last week where not 1 game won, well this week we have 3 winners but another massive loss of $8,200, that’s a $17,200 loss in 2 weeks on these systems. XX Draws should have lost $2,550 but I missed a bet which saved me $1,000. Combo Football Investor has also had a terrible end to the season, early on we were sitting well above $20,000 profit, but after another $2,400 loss this week we are much closer to $10,000 now. Only 1 week to go in the season and I’m looking at a very small return for a lot of work this year.
A real crap two weeks. The swings will be very dependent on AFL from now, as that is the most heavily bet sport with very few games each week. The only other sports I will be following until the new Soccer season starts is Tennis, MLB and NRL. At least now it will only take about 4 hours of my time a week. I will be looking into Golf betting as well in the coming weeks.
Total loss for the week was $10,405.35
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $3,459,073.91
Profit/Loss: $49,078.42
POT: 1.42%
Bets Placed: 5,425
Won: 2,208
Lost: 3,073
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 142
Winning %: 42.1%
Profit per day: $165,162.14/ 1049 = $157.44
AFL H2H – SP $63,975.00 $10,449.68 16.3%
week profit/loss: 3311.90
AFL Line – SP $328,929.00 $(543.85) -0.2%
week profit/loss: 7022.20
ATP – SP $423,402.00 $10,907.00 2.6%
week profit/loss: -2199.63
OTP NRL $25,000.00 $(3,508.25) -14.0%
week profit/loss: -2500
MLB H2H $71,961.00 $15,665.27 21.8%
week profit/loss: 1980.70
MLB Totals $115,455.00 $(551.37) -0.5%
week profit/loss: -5877.02
XX Draws $67,500.00 $(11,087.50) -16.4%
week profit/loss: -887.50
XX Draws Under $67,500.00 $(3,525.00) -5.2%
week profit/loss: -1625
XX Extended $148,500.00 $14,531.00 9.8%
week profit/loss: 695
XX Extended Under $148,194.00 $2,163.50 1.5%
week profit/loss: 266.50
FB Elite $290,819.00 $(32,014.97) -11.0%
week profit/loss: 0
Skeeve $148,919.00 $(1,833.64) -1.2%
week profit/loss: 0
Combo FI $247,229.00 $13,669.50 5.5%
week profit/loss: -2395
6-22 $73,315.00 $7,766.75 10.6%
week profit/loss: 0
7-21 $117,485.00 $10,867.00 9.2%
week profit/loss: 0
7-22 $49,185.00 $4,625.25 9.4%
week profit/loss: 0
8-21 $57,125.00 $9,032.88 15.8%
week profit/loss: 0
8-22 $31,513.00 $1,584.13 5.0%
week profit/loss: 0
E1-E7 $73,580.00 $(400.99) -0.5%
week profit/loss: 135
E2-E6 $85,162.00 $(252.61) -0.3%
week profit/loss: -3457.5
E2-E7 $43,125.00 $5,537.26 12.8%
week profit/loss: -1875
E3-E6 $31,500.00 $(173.25) -0.6%
week profit/loss: -1875
E3-E7 $17,625.00 $3,048.75 17.3%
week profit/loss: -1125
May 1st – May 7th -$29,356.68
Just 7 days ago, things were looking so good. I had hit some major milestones, I had 3 straight months of amazing results and things were going awesome. I had forgot what a bitch betting could be. But it decided to remind me over this weekend. The total profit had reached $210,000 before the carnage begun. Friday night saw the single biggest bet of my life go down in the last minute. From that moment, I knew this week was going to be a disaster. How bad it ended, I could not of even imagined.
As mentioned on my weekend post. I lost close to $12,000 on the Friday night AFL bet. The other matches were much smaller bets and I ended the week with a loss of $13,817. I could have stomached that if it was the only negative for the week, but that wasn’t to be.
Tennis lost $3,000 and MLB totals lost $3,100. These were counteracted by a profit for OTP NRL of $350 and a massive MLB H2H week of $10,500 profit. Once again, if this was the end of it, I would have been satisfied with the weekly results. But there was much worse to come.
SOCCER, SOCCER, SOCCER. I thought I was over this, but nope, it came back to bite me on the arse. $20,344 lost over the weekend. XX Draws sucked with a loss of $5,100. FB Elite continued its ongoing suckiness and added another $5,800 loss. Never have I seen a tipster perform so badly. Combo FI lost $2,300 and the real horrible model this week was TFA Euro, losing $9,000.
Losing $30,000 over 3 days is a bit surreal. That’s not far off the average wage here, and I gave it to the bookies in the space of 72 hours. I know I was due a correction as the profit had made an incredible climb this year. I’m hoping that it was just a blip and over the next few weeks I can look back and laugh at the biggest weekly loss I have suffered. But I’m not feeling very confident at the moment, so we will need to see what happens next week.
Just going to forget about this shit week and look forward to another opportunity next week to reclaim that $200,000 mark.
Total loss for the week was $29,356.68
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $3,344,211.91
Profit/Loss: $59,483.77
POT: 1.78%
Bets Placed: 5,232
Won: 2,144
Lost: 2,947
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 139
Winning %: 42.1%
Profit per day: $175,567.49 / 1042 = $168.49
AFL H2H – SP $58,680.00 $7,137.78 12.2%
week profit/loss: -2293.50
AFL Line – SP $307,215.00 $(7,566.05) -2.5%
week profit/loss: -11524.29
ATP – SP $411,650.00 $13,106.63 3.2%
week profit/loss: -2958.51
OTP NRL $22,500.00 $(1,008.25) -4.5%
week profit/loss: 368.75
MLB H2H $58,543.00 $13,684.57 23.4%
week profit/loss: 10,517.74
MLB Totals $92,647.00 $5,325.65 5.7%
week profit/loss: -3124.37
XX Draws $65,000.00 $(10,200.00) -15.7%
week profit/loss: -195
XX Draws Under $65,000.00 $(1,900.00) -2.9%
week profit/loss: 1103.50
XX Extended $141,500.00 $13,836.00 9.8%
week profit/loss: -3500
XX Extended Under $141,194.00 $1,897.00 1.3%
week profit/loss: -2510
FB Elite $290,819.00 $(32,014.97) -11.0%
week profit/loss: -5860
Skeeve $148,919.00 $(1,833.64) -1.2%
week profit/loss: 0
Combo FI $241,229.00 $16,064.50 6.7%
week profit/loss: -2286
6-22 $73,315.00 $7,766.75 10.6%
week profit/loss: 0
7-21 $117,485.00 $10,867.00 9.2%
week profit/loss: 952.50
7-22 $49,185.00 $4,625.25 9.4%
week profit/loss: 0
8-21 $57,125.00 $9,032.88 15.8%
week profit/loss: 952.50
8-22 $31,513.00 $1,584.13 5.0%
week profit/loss: 0
E1-E7 $70,580.00 $(535.99) -0.8%
week profit/loss: -3000
E2-E6 $80,662.00 $3,204.89 4.0%
week profit/loss: -3000
E2-E7 $41,250.00 $7,412.26 18.0%
week profit/loss: -1875
E3-E6 $29,625.00 $1,701.75 5.7%
week profit/loss: -750
E3-E7 $16,500.00 $4,173.75 25.3%
week profit/loss: -375
What will really happen with the Waterhouse More Joyous scandal?
Over the past 3 years of writing this blog, all the posts have just been my weekly profit and loss statements. But over the past few years the state of the Australian bookmaking industry has really made me cringe. Like every other blogger, I feel I have some very strong opinions and they are worthy of your valuable time. I have held back from writing any posts like these as I didn’t think it was my place. The major goal of this blog was to show people that by using a proper investors mindset, you could create a portfolio of services and with no discernible skill set apart from a bit of bank management, some long term thinking and a willingness to accept the fluctuations in profit and loss, that over the long term a profit could be made. Over the past 3 years (and many years before this blog), I feel that has been demonstrated. I spend much less time on this then any sensible person would spend on their own Self managed super fund, but my returns year after year make a shambles of the returns given by stock markets or any other well used investment vehicles. So from this very high horse of mine, let’s begin my ranting.
The big news the last few weeks has been about the More Joyous furor. To put it simply, the horse wasn’t well and it’s trainer decided to not tell anyone. Her son, a bookmaker stupidly told friends not to back it, which got back to the horse’s owner who likes to shout his mouth off and who was rightly pissed that he was not told, decided to make it public knowledge. It came second last and now people are acting shocked that this sort of thing happens.
I know very little about racing. I have followed a few UK horse racing tipsters, one who was ranked the best ever, and they did quite well, so well in fact that I could not place anymore bets as all the bookmakers stopped allowing me to bet on any races with fixed odds. What I do know about Horse racing, is that your average punter is never ever going to win long term. This is a sport where insider information is the only way you will make a profit year on year. Now I am going to sound pretty smart here as I reference Karl Marx’s thoughts on the law of increasing poverty, in a nutshell it’s “The rich get richer and the poor get poorer”. The poor being the average guy who likes to place a few small bets on the weekend for a bit of excitement. The rich being the bookmakers, trainers, media outlets, the racing administrators and even the dodgy tipsters who promise outrageous fortunes. Sadly the majority of these punters believe that they have all the information they need in the little lift-out from their local paper which tells them how the horse went in its last few races and has a twitter length comment next to each horse. WAKE UP PEOPLE. The only people outside of the rich mentioned above are the professionals who hire others to watch every single race numerous times, have maths prodigies creating algorithms and who also bet with cash back and affiliate payments in mind. If you are shocked at hearing any of this then you and your money shall be parted very quickly. If you are betting with the full knowledge that you will lose money and what you are partaking in is payment for entertainment then your going about things the right way. But if you really believe your betting style or system can compete against the typhoon that is the racing system, then I laugh in your ugly troll-like face.
Ok, so after some background info of the racing industry that most of my readers really already know, lets get onto the scandal of the moment and what’s in stall for the 3 parties involved. I’ll start with the owner of the horse, John Singleton. He has done nothing wrong in my opinion, as the owner he should have been told about any issues with the horse and was rightly upset to have to hear about it from the sources he did. You would think in a sane world that that means he has nothing to worry about. But NSW racing and most of the other state administrative bodies are always looking out for themselves. This means that they will slap John with a big fine for bringing the sport into disrepute or something along those lines. The amount will be meaningless to Singleton, but I think it will be more then what is given to Gai Waterhouse. She broke a number of rules by not telling anyone, but she will get a small fine and a talking to, which is even less then a slap on the wrist.
In my opinion the massive issue is with Tom Waterhouse, when you are a bookmaker and your mum is a trainer then you have to make sure that there is no link between the two. It sounds dodgy enough as it is, but then he actually advertisers this by saying if you back one of his mum’s horses and it comes 2nd or 3rd then you get your money back. Sure he wants to play of his famous family name, but the fact that he can’t see how stupid this is is beyond me. When your dad is known as a dodgy bookmaker and has a massive stake in your company, you don’t want to do anything that could cause an issue. I believe he did know about the issues with More Joyous and did tell others not to back it, which for someone who seems intelligent is pretty retarded. He should lose his license for passing on insider information. If something like this happened in regards to stocks then he would be going to jail for insider trading. He says he placed a $300,000 bet on the horse, off course he did, only after getting about $1,000,000 in bets on it from the unsuspecting punters on his site. His companies catchphrase is “I know what punters want”, maybe it’s just me but I don’t think they want to be betting with someone who knows the horse they are betting their hard earned money on has no chance of winning.
Now here is the kicker, this is what is going to happen to Tom Waterhouse. Sweet fuck all. A big show will be put on by NSW Racing to assure the Australian betting public that they are not idiots for betting on racing and that it is clean sport and blah blah blah. Small fines will be handed out and the news coverage will move onto whatever new scandal pops up in the world of sport. Tom will continue to advertise non stop and get more and more customers and continue to make enormous amounts of money and live an awesome life with all the perks of being very very very rich. Is that a surprise? were you expecting anything else?
Every state Gambling commission is a joke. We have seen how good they are at their jobs time and time again. The last one being the Sports Alive debacle. Nothing will change unless people are willing to stop using these services. But that requires them to stop betting, which isn’t going to happen. My goal over the coming years is to make sure that the regular punters are made aware of their very vulnerable position and that the bookmakers are held responsible for any misdemeanors that they enact on a daily basis. As I am very lazy, a manifesto will be created in the next few weeks/months that will spell out what I hope to achieve over the next few years in helping the average punter make back some money from the bookmakers and also to assess what they have already lost. It will start with a simple program that once given permission can grab all your bets from any bookmakers you bet at and actually show you where you are losing money and where you might actually have an edge. A simple first step that the bookmakers themselves would hate you to have. I will continue to release articles and other documents that will hopefully open your eyes to how bookmakers really treat their customers and how you can become one of the few who make a profit from them.
That’s my rant over, as mentioned before, I have no real interest in racing and these are just my opinions and will probably be proved wrong in the coming days, I really hope they are. But the industry is in a sorry state and it feels like a mafia run affair at times. Entertaining punting everyone.
Let me know your thoughts on this in the comments and if you want me to keep writing these types of articles, or if you want me to shut my trap and just report my profits/losses.
$11,350 lost on 1 game
The only big AFL bet of the week just finished and what a heart breaker. There was $1,350 on St Kilda at $4.50 and $10,000 on +24.5. With 1 minute left Collingwood scored to make the margin 26. The worse part was that this morning when the tips were released, if I was quick enough I could have got a line of 26.5, but my spreadsheet didn’t work and I had to settle for the 24.5.
Just shows how things can shift so quickly. Instead of celebrating breaking the $100,000 barrier for the year, I’m back at $80,000 and a long way off again.
I guess I am going to need to get used to these massive bets losing every now and again, but right now it hurts a heap.
This week is not going to be pretty, so come back on Tuesday to see the rest of the carnage.
