Dec 4th – Dec 10th -$2,431.83
Another one of those very annoying weeks. The same pattern happened last week. Midweek betting was terrible and pushed me towards -20k, then a good Saturday and I’m back to only a loss of 5k for the year. Head to bed Sunday night hoping to be in profit on Monday morning but everything losses and I’m back out to -12k. This week I also created a graph of my total betting since this blog started which can be seen below and on the left side.
It doesn’t look too bad to be honest. Long periods of sideways movements and then a quick jump in profits, followed by more treading water. If it was a stock, I would buy it.
In the last post I mentioned how Betezy is seeming very dodgy. I have had others say they are still being paid and taking the bonuses. I emailed and called Betezy to ask for a reply and got nothing from them. I will be lodging a formal complaint against them with the NT commission about their stealing of my bonus funds. Will update when I know more.
In other local betting news. A bunch of morons trusted a bloke who said he would bet millions on Australian racing and would return 25% a year. It could be as high as $500 million stolen. I can’t believe how greedy people can be, and how stupid they are with their money. Some simple research when presented with the offer would have uncovered the truth. Full story at Scott Fergusons blog.
After a few weeks of Insider betting, my thoughts are that I won’t be continuing. The leagues are hard to get a decent bet on, odds crash very quickly and bets come out at different times. I will be joining a new service this week that should allow me to bet on these in a more timely manner, so will give it another chance before pulling the pin.
After talking with some more readers this week, I have started to follow ClubGowi, when initially told about the service I had a look and wasn’t confident in it. But after a few more people recommended it, I have joined up for a month. As is always the case, the first day of me following was a shocker. “Ouch ! Saturday was a nightmare and I guess was probably our worst ever day“. But yesterday was pretty great and the service is more then just the tips, it will hopefully increase my betting IQ. As I continue on this journey, I may as well learn something as well.
American sports continued their poor form this week. NFL down $2,600, NHL with a huge $5,200 loss and NBA with a $500 loss. This lead me to have a look at the total P/L for all american sports (from Sportpunter) and the results don’t look great. In total, I am just shy of $3 million bet and have just $15,000 profit to show for it. NHL, NFL and College Ball have been long term losers and only the NBA and MLB have made a slight profit. I think a restructure is in order at the end of this season.
Nics Picks is now on it’s final legs. 1 win from over 180 picks is hard to stomach. I knew I would have large swings, but this is a bit much. I also assumed that I was getting much worse odds, but after looking at my bets, I am only get 1% worse odds. So will continue and hope for a winner real soon. NBL changed it’s poor recent form and made $3,800 this week.
Soccer has had a mini renaissance lately, it’s still shit and in a deep hole. But the last few weeks have produced some profit. Skeeve continues his amazing run, I just wish he hadn’t lowered stakes, as we could be well in profit right now. $2,300 profit this week from his two bets. FB Elite has an amazing Saturday, followed by a terrible Sunday and ended up contributing $1,900. Combo FI only had the two bets and returned $360. TFA also was in profit to the tune of $2,400, but a goal with just 20seconds left in the Partick game cost me over $7,000. That one hurt. Onto the two new systems and Insider betting lost $2,000 and ClubGowi also lost $1,000. I have high hopes for ClubGOWI after reading the first few emails. As always, time will tell.
So another small losing week and still waiting for that breakthrough week to push me into profit. I know it will happen, just want it sooner rather than later.
Total loss for the week was $2,431.83
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,535,977.00
Profit/Loss: $(12,312.44)
POT: -0.80%
Bets Placed: 2,570
Won: 920
Lost: 1587
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 62
Winning %: 36.7%
Total profit per day: $175,209.65 / 1259 = $139.16
Total Turnover: $11,285,806.53
Total ROI: 1.55%
FB Elite $76,000.00 $95.00 0.1%
week profit/loss: 1900
Skeeve $43,240.00 $(1,794.10) -4.1%
week profit/loss: 2280
Combo FI $42,590.00 $(2,505.00) -5.9%
week profit/loss: 360
TFA $306,443.00 $(37,753.00) -12.32%
week profit/loss: 2420
Insider Betting $5,500.00 $(2,213.50) -40.2%
week profit/loss: -2000
ClubGowi $7,300.00 $(1,026.00) -14.1%
week profit/loss: -1026
NFL Totals $81,632.00 $(4,788.88) -5.9%
week profit/loss: -2645.16
NP Win $13,623.00 $(9,030.00) -66.3%
week profit/loss: -825
NHL Totals $118,942.00 $(11,405.55) -9.6%
week profit/loss: -5,199.78
NBL Totals $50,321.00 $5,811.75 11.5%
week profit/loss: 974.40
NBL Line $37,336.00 $14,308.47 38.3%
week profit/loss: 2857.50
NBA Totals $68,674.00 $(3,276.34) -4.8%
week profit/loss: 792.15
NBA H2H $36,997.00 $6,570.86 17.8%
week profit/loss: -1319.94
Betezy Update – I would be taking my money out.
I posted in September about how I was worried about Betezy and its clones (dynabet, so on). I took all my money out and haven’t touched them since then. They stole over $4,000 in free bets from me and choose to not return any emails or calls. This to me was a terrible way to treat a customer and any business that works this way is not going to last long.
Recently this week I have heard from a number of current customers who are starting to receive more and more offers from Betezy to get them betting, ranging from 10% all the way up to 30% Deposit bonuses on any sum they wish to deposit. Yes, that’s right, someone can deposit $25,000 and receive a $7,500 bonus. There are so many terms linked to these offers and if you make one mistake they will revoke the bonus. Now this in itself is nothing new for Betezy, they have offered such generous bonuses before and I have taken them up and followed the rules and eventually (after many hassles) been paid, until this last time. If this was the only piece of news I had heard then I wouldn’t be writing this post.
Here’s the kicker, they are now telling players that they have offered this bonus to that they will also match the best prices found on the net. So if they offer $2 on a team and you use betbrain and see you can get them for $2.6 at a competing book all you need to do is call them up, show them the better price and they will match it. This is a massive warning sign to me that they are in big financial trouble. Again, this is just my opinion and hopefully this is just a new tactic they are testing to see if it brings in new revenue, but how they could offer this and make a profit is beyond me, it leads me to believe that they need new deposits to cover the withdrawals from other players.
I have contacted Betezy and asked for a reply about this as I feel it needs to be addressed.
Do you have an account with Betezy? have you been offered these terms? let me know in the comments below.
October 2013 Review -$30,475.86
October saw me on a 24 night cruise from Vancouver to Sydney. It was a very frustrating month, as not only was it a real hassle to get the bets on, but I was also continuing my slide down to a very uncomfortable position. I found it quite difficult to relax as my yearly loss started to climb very quickly towards -$50,000. It was once again all due to another terrible month of Soccer and once again TFA was to blame. I was now down well over 60% of my bank in only 2 months.
$227,805.00 was bet in October for a loss of $30,475.86, which was a -13.38% ROI.
In October I had 3 American sports going. The NBA and NHL had started and I was continuing to bet on the NFL. NBA got off to a poor start with a $2,917 loss. NHL made $1,500. But the NFL was going terribly. A $8,264 loss there.
I had also started betting the NBL when I got back to Sydney and after a poor start to the season which I missed, it turned around and made almost $14,000 profit.
The Tennis season was starting to come to a close and the model started to give back some of the profits made over the year. A $2,780 loss for the month. The NRL season came to a close with a $600 profit. Golf had no winners for a $2,875 loss.
Soccer had back to back shockers and lost $29,654 at -20.2%. By this time I had lost all faith in any Soccer model and after 2 seasons of betting it looked like I wasn’t going to find a profitable system.
The month ended with me at a season high loss of $53,000 and questioning if it was worth continuing. Over the September-October period I had managed a $86,000 loss. My hopes were pinned on a great November. If I continued to loss at this rate, it wouldn’t be long before all my profits over the past 3 years were wiped out.
Combined Totals
Tennis $16,396.00 $(2,780.78) -17.0%
Soccer $146,440.00 $(29,654.00) -20.2%
Basketball $29,374.00 $10,968.89 37.3%
NRL $638.00 $599.72 94.0%
Golf $2,875.00 $(2,875.00) -100.0%
NFL $17,564.00 $(8,264.04) -47.1%
NHL $14,518.00 $1,529.35 10.5%
Individual Models
ATP – SP $16,396.00 $(2,780.78) -17.0%
FB Elite $13,000.00 $(310.00) -2.4%
Skeeve $7,800.00 $(2,106.00) -27.0%
Combo FI $17,590.00 $(1,391.50) -7.9%
6-22 $5,950.00 $(2,282.00) -38.4%
7-21 $8,600.00 $(3,598.50) -41.8%
7-22 $3,500.00 $(3,150.00) -90.0%
8-21 $3,650.00 $(2,180.00) -59.7%
8-22 $2,100.00 $(1,750.00) -83.3%
31-42 $18,200.00 $2,438.50 13.4%
33-41 $5,300.00 $(3,707.50) -70.0%
33-42 $4,000.00 $(2,379.50) -59.5%
TOX $16,800.00 $(4,109.00) -24.5%
STOY $16,100.00 $(2,840.00) -17.6%
STOZ $21,400.00 $(2,358.50) -11.0%
D3-D6 $1,400.00 $(140.00) -10.0%
D3-D7 $1,050.00 $210.00 20.0%
OTP NRL $638.00 $599.72 94.0%
NP Win $2,875.00 $(2,875.00) -100.0%
NBL Totals $11,945.00 $7,768.43 65.0%
NBL Line $8,556.00 $6,116.73 71.5%
NBA Totals $5,886.00 $(4,504.05) -76.5%
NBA H2H $2,987.00 $1,587.78 53.2%
NFL Totals $17,564.00 $(8,264.04) -47.1%
NHL Totals $14,518.00 $1,529.35 10.5%
Nov 27th – Dec 3rd -$3,411.77
The winning run has come to an end, but things were looking much worse earlier in the week, after another horrendous TFA midweek result and then a $10,000 loss on the NHL and NBA the next night, I was back out to a loss for the year of $20,000. The weekend soccer returned some of the losses and the deficit this week wasn’t so brutal.
FB Elite was the savior this week with a $4,200 profit. But I am still not convinced of it’s long term profitability. It really needs to impress over the next few months for me to continue with it. Combo FI produced a tiny loss and after the carnage of midweek, TFA recoup some of those losses on the weekend to end the week $2,100 down. My 7 day trial of Insider betting ended and I’m still not sure if I should pay for it, lower leagues, not getting anywhere near the odds quoted and a few other factors are warning signs. Why these tipsters can’t record fair odds is beyond me. If they were pure gamblers and they were just placing the bets themselves then that’s fine, as they can get those odds, but if you are a tipster you have to understand your customers position. Odds 30 minutes after you release your picks should be the bare minimum standard. This would make the majority of tipsters into losing ones and would save a lot of people a lot of money. In saying that, I need to diversify my portfolio and their long term results show that a profit can be made even with worse odds, so I will move to a one month trial.
The model that hurt the most this week was the NBL, two big total bets and one wasn’t even close, while the other looked great until the game went into overtime, but even then it looked good, with 18 points needed before I lost the under bet. 18 points were scored. A $7,000 loss on the totals. NFL made $600 and hopefully we start making some profit for the year from now, after the horrendous NHL night earlier in the week, it produced some wins and ended the week only $1,400 down. NBA turned around even more and ended the week up $2,700. Nics picks continues to suck balls and lost another $1,000 and it’s getting to that stage where I really need to ask myself if it’s worth continuing, I am getting an average of 10% worse odds then quoted and without a win very soon, the losses are going to start looking very ugly.
So another week down and not going anywhere. Some more midweek misery coming up for TFA with some large bets on two teams that have been pathetic all season. I can’t wait for AFL and Tennis to start again.
Total loss for the week was $3,411.77
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,453,234.00
Profit/Loss: $(9,880.61)
POT: -0.68%
Bets Placed: 2,435
Won: 871
Lost: 1508
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 55
Winning %: 36.6%
Total profit per day: $177,641.48 / 1252 = $141.88
Total Turnover: $11,203,063.53
Total ROI: 1.59%
FB Elite $66,000.00 $(1,805.00) -2.7%
week profit/loss: 4225
Skeeve $41,440.00 $(4,074.10) -9.8%
week profit/loss: 0
Combo FI $41,590.00 $(2,865.00) -6.9%
week profit/loss: -90
TFA $294,693.00 $(40,173.00) -13.63%
week profit/loss: -2155
Insider Betting $3,500.00 $(213.50) -6.1%
week profit/loss: -637.50
NFL Totals $73,550.00 $(2,143.72) -2.9%
week profit/loss: 635.07
NP Win $12,798.00 $(8,205.00) -64.1%
week profit/loss: -975
NHL Totals $98,423.00 $(6,205.77) -6.3%
week profit/loss: -1434.88
NBL Totals $42,373.00 $4,837.35 11.4%
week profit/loss: -7000
NBL Line $34,161.00 $11,450.97 33.5%
week profit/loss: 341.49
NBA Totals $65,164.00 $(4,068.49) -6.2%
week profit/loss: 241.74
NBA H2H $33,163.00 $7,890.80 23.8%
week profit/loss: 2437.31
September 2013 Review -$55,703.94
Well I forgot about the monthly reviews as soon as I started to lose a shitload of money. This update is only 2 months late. At the end of August I was sitting on $40,000 profit after just two months and things really seemed to be working out. I was living in Italy, and travelling around and I could not have been happier. But in this game, things never stay the same for long. September saw me flying First class (thanks frequent flyer points) from London to New York and it was the start of a massive downturn.
In total I bet $302,768.00 and lost $55,703.94, which is a -18.40% ROI.
September was the real start of the Soccer betting season and it started with a bang. $127,871 was bet and a loss of $40,548 was recorded. A perfect -31.7% ROI. All 16 models produced a loss (TFA makes up 13 of them). TFA was the main culprit with a $30,229 loss, but Skeeve also contributed a loss of $7,036.
AFL ended the season with a loss of $6,026, but it had an amazing year so I can’t say too much against it. The NRL also lost $2,690.
The Tennis had a great month and produced $6,584 profit at 35.3%. The two American sports performed terribly with Baseball starting its downward spiral with a $8,721 loss and NFL losing $5,949. Golf had it’s only winning month with $1,648 profit.
By the end of September i was at -$20,000 and really hating all the time I had wasted placing bets while on my travels. Things did not get better in October.
Combined Totals
AFL $26,539.00 $(6,026.80) -22.7%
Tennis $18,672.00 $6,584.02 35.3%
Soccer $127,871.00 $(40,548.70) -31.7%
Baseball $93,286.00 $(8,721.29) -9.3%
NRL $6,000.00 $(2,690.00) -44.8%
Golf $2,945.00 $1,648.00 56.0%
NFL $27,455.00 $(5,949.17) -21.7%
Individual models
ATP – SP $18,672.00 $6,584.02 35.3%
AFL H2H – SP $1,695.00 $(399.75) -23.6%
AFL Line – SP $24,844.00 $(5,627.05) -22.6%
FB Elite $6,000.00 $(1,070.00) -17.8%
Skeeve $18,000.00 $(7,036.20) -39.1%
Combo FI $4,000.00 $(2,213.50) -55.3%
6-22 $3,750.00 $(2,647.50) -70.6%
7-21 $8,850.00 $(3,883.50) -43.9%
7-22 $2,350.00 $(1,247.50) -53.1%
8-21 $4,000.00 $(1,427.50) -35.7%
8-22 $2,000.00 $(862.50) -43.1%
31-42 $14,750.00 $(4,778.50) -32.4%
33-41 $6,150.00 $(2,100.00) -34.1%
33-42 $5,721.00 $(3,105.00) -54.3%
TOX $14,900.00 $(2,706.50) -18.2%
STOY $14,900.00 $(2,754.00) -18.5%
STOZ $19,000.00 $(3,624.50) -19.1%
D3-D6 $2,100.00 $(896.00) -42.7%
D3-D7 $1,400.00 $(196.00) -14.0%
OTP NRL $6,000.00 $(2,690.00) -44.8%
MLB H2H $42,924.00 $(9,525.18) -22.2%
MLB Totals $50,362.00 $803.89 1.6%
NP Win $2,795.00 $1,798.00 64.3%
NP Place $150.00 $(150.00) -100.0%
NFL Totals $27,455.00 $(5,949.17) -21.7%
Nov 20th – Nov 26th +$463.83
Well a whole 4 weeks of profit. Although this one was tiny. As always there were a few bets that almost got me back to even for the month and as always there was one model that performed pathetically. Still not doing anything but turning over funds at the moment, hoping for that +$20k week to hit again before the new year, or it will once again be a repeat of last season where the first 6 months resulted in a loss (-$30,661) and then the second half was spectacular. It makes it very stressful as having to hope for a big turnaround again sucks. If it was a massive gain in the first 6 months then the loss in the second half then that would be easier to stomach. The way things are looking, nothing is really making me feel that a repeat of last year is even a remote possibility. Right now it feels like it could well be a losing year. But with monthly swings in the -50k to +80k range, in 6 months I will be telling a very different story I’m sure.
I am testing a new Soccer service at the moment. It is Insider betting. The service was brought to my attention by Kizo (A blog reader). My main concerns are getting enough on and finding prices close to what is stated in their results. To be honest, the odds are pretty tough to match and the leagues that I am betting into don’t offer much choice. I am hoping to bet $500 per match and will give it a month’s test.
Onto the results and we will change things up and start with Soccer. A disaster week for Football Elite with almost $8,000 lost. Terrible terrible picks and another week like this and things can quickly turn terrible once again for this service. Skeeve had the one small multi which won, netting a $1,500 profit. I do wonder how the results would have looked if he had not lowered stakes after his terrible start, he does love to tell subscribers how much he has saved them by lowering stakes, but doesn’t mention how much it might have cost when there are profits. A few more good weeks and we could be into profit and according to his stats, the new year is when he shines. Combo FI had a crap week, losing $1,900 and TFA made $3,500, I think the filtering actually worked for once. The new Insider betting made $424.
NBL was painful this week, did get a half point win, but had a massive bet on the over in a separate match and was looking good with just 4 points needed with 2:50 left in the match, no further points were scored. $1,200 lost for the week. The American sports made a welcome profit with NFL adding $3,200, NHL $425, and NBA $2,300. Nics picks continues to disappoint with a further $425 loss this week, really starting to hope for a win very soon.
Pretty much a nothing week, we do have a number of midweek bets tonight for Combo FI and TFA, so hoping to get the week of to a super start. Excited to be testing a new system as really do need to diversify the Soccer portfolio to more then just the english leagues. Time will tell if I made the right decision. Until next week.
Total profit for the week was $463.83
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,354,015.00
Profit/Loss: $(6,468.84)
POT: -0.48%
Bets Placed: 2,248
Won: 805
Lost: 1396
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 46
Winning %: 36.6%
Total profit per day: $181,053.25 / 1245 = $145.42
Total Turnover: $11,103,844.53
Total ROI: 1.63%
FB Elite $55,000.00 $(6,030.00) -11.0%
week profit/loss: -7840
Skeeve $41,440.00 $(4,074.10) -9.8%
week profit/loss: 1524
Combo FI $35,090.00 $(2,775.00) -7.9%
week profit/loss: -1910
TFA $266,693.00 $(38,018.00) -13.54%
week profit/loss: 3520
Insider Betting $500.00 $424.00 84.8%
week profit/loss: 424
NFL Totals $68,666.00 $(2,778.79) -4.0%
week profit/loss: 3256.18
NP Win $11,823.00 $(7,230.00) -61.2%
week profit/loss: -425
NHL Totals $77,281.00 $(4,770.89) -6.2%
week profit/loss: 425.15
NBL Totals $35,373.00 $11,837.35 33.5%
week profit/loss: -800
NBL Line $29,368.00 $11,109.48 37.8%
week profit/loss: -367.76
NBA Totals $56,574.00 $(4,310.23) -7.6%
week profit/loss: 2712.25
NBA H2H $28,828.00 $5,453.49 18.9%
week profit/loss: -54.99
Nov 13th – Nov 19th +$4,430.93
A three-peat of winning weeks but still yet to taste that elusive profit for the year. The surprise profit came from Skeeve this week, with a very welcome return to form with some very bizarre staking. Sadly the NBA and NHL have really hurt this week. But another profitable week and we could be square for the past 5 month by the end of the month. It’s very sad to be happy to be square but this season has seen some terrible results and if in a really bad season I can end square then I see that as a win. There are another 7 months left and the total can still go anywhere, but being break even for at least a week will make me feel just a little better.
We will start with the American sports and NFL continued it’s good current run with $3,200 profit, missed two games by half a point which would have pushed the profit over $10,000. NHL totals lost a further $2,700 and the season is not looking good. I have never made a profit with this model and my results do not match those of the betting history (mostly because I have started mid season) and think it will be gone next season. NBA lost a whopping $5,800 and totals continue to perform terribly.
The only current Australian sport is NBL and it continues to astound me with another $3,700 profit for the week. I’m glad I’ve stuck around with this model as previous seasons have been break even. Golf also added a a further $1,000 loss to the season, but o so close with a second and third place. Any of those winning and the current $7,000 loss would have been wiped out.
Onto Soccer and Graeme was worried about what I would say about his model (TFA) this week as the main systems are now into profit for the season, but he knows I use the filtered ones and they are still in a heap of trouble. A small loss this week of $1,900 and I am still waiting for these filtered bets to get into gear. Really hoping we see an exact replica of last season where the new year brought with it an amazing run. The model is still only 2 bad weeks from a complete wipeout, but also only 2 good weeks from breaking even. Skeeve finally put a smile on my face this week, I thought he had gone off his rocker and had started betting crazy when I saw the bets this week, but instead it looks like he is in fact an idiot savant. A massive $7,000 profit for the week. What I don’t like is the boasting and how quick the emails come out after a winning week compared to all the losing weeks. We are nowhere near a stage where boasting is in order and doubt we will get to that stage anytime this season. Still a long road ahead for Skeeve subscribers. Combo FI had a no nonsense week with $1,800 profit to round off a profitable Soccer weekend.
So we are still sticking in the game, in the past 5 months we have had swings up to $40,000 and then a downswing of $90,000 to -$50,000 and now a swing up of $40,000. Keen to see this current upswing continue for the rest of the season but we all know that’s not how this game works. I’ll keep plugging away and you will keep forcing yourself to come to the site every Tuesday in anticipation. Until next week.
Total profit for the week was $4,430.93
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,259,988.00
Profit/Loss: $(6,932.67)
POT: -0.55%
Bets Placed: 2,085
Won: 743
Lost: 1300
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 41
Winning %: 36.4%
Total profit per day: $180,589.42 / 1238 = $145.87
Total Turnover: $11,009,817.53
Total ROI: 1.64%
ATP – SP $143,347.00 $8,335.87 5.8%
week profit/loss: 0
FB Elite $43,000.00 $1,810.00 4.2%
week profit/loss: 0
Skeeve $40,240.00 $(5,598.10) -13.9%
week profit/loss: 6,994.50
Combo FI $30,590.00 $(865.00) -2.8%
week profit/loss: 1765
TFA $243,671.00 $(41,538.00) -17.04%
week profit/loss: -1862.50
NFL Totals $62,065.00 $(6,034.97) -9.7%
week profit/loss: 3,207.38
NP Win $11,398.00 $(6,805.00) -59.7%
week profit/loss: -950
NHL Totals $56,419.00 $(5,196.04) -9.2%
week profit/loss: -2711.04
NBL Totals $29,083.00 $12,637.35 43.5%
week profit/loss: -101.82
NBL Line $24,270.00 $11,477.24 47.3%
week profit/loss: 3854.25
NBA Totals $47,559.00 $(7,022.48) -14.8%
week profit/loss: -4,780.09
NBA H2H $24,314.00 $5,508.48 22.7%
week profit/loss: -984.77
Nov 6th – Nov 12th +$8,112.78
Back to back profits and was very close to being just $3,000 down for the season, but a poor Sunday night moved it back out to 5 figures. The worst loss was an NBL over that needed just 1 point with 1 minute left. A free throw was missed and then 5 shots in the last 10 seconds. That was a $7,000 turnaround. With an FA Cup weekend on, there wasn’t much soccer betting. Some of the American sports have started to pick up but NHL continue to under perform. Any time in the next month and a half I could go to positive or hit that -$50,000 loss again. Should be an interesting end of year.
Tennis ended the season very badly. $3,400 lost this week and that’s it for the 2013 season. From Jan 1st, Tennis turnover was $483,413 and profit was $41,308.54. That’s a ROI of 8.5%. A great season in my eyes but I was lucky to miss a terrible month. The vast majority of the profit came in the first half of the season, with the second 6 months making just $8,000 but if I had been betting in October then I would have broken even for the last 6 months of the year. I believe next season (which starts in just 4 weeks), I will raise my bank slightly from $75,000 to $90,000.
Only a few Soccer bets this week and they all made a profit. FB Elite had an amazing Saturday night then a dreadful Sunday night but made $1,900. TFA made a tiny $85 and Combo had the one bet for $1,100 profit. No midweek bets but hopefully a big weekend coming up to take another chunk out of the current $53,000 loss.
NFL continued it’s comeback (the one that started last week which Jonno did not upload in time), with another $5,000 profit this week. NHL lost $4,100 this week but I still have hopes for a good season. NBA Totals made a healthy $3,100 with a very nice over win that had no chance before going into double OT. The totals are still in negative but traditionally the early season totals perform amazingly. The H2H bets normally don’t perform as well but this season is an exception. I bet much lower on H2H bets but that didn’t stop it making another $5,200 this week with some big wins on the buzzer for the Lakers and Boston. The NBL contributed again with $2,900 profit, but was very close to another $10,000 weeekend. Still having to split my bets across numerous bookies with max bets everywhere on the totals being $500. The Golf continues to not perform with a further $800 lost this week and only 1 more week left this season. Hoping for a great end.
Still unsure where I will end up at the end of the year. Let’s hope it’s in positive territory and then I hope we see a repeat of last January where Soccer made all it’s profit in just one month.
Total profit for the week was $8,112.78
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,174,317.00
Profit/Loss: $(11,363.60)
POT: -0.97%
Bets Placed: 1,926
Won: 685
Lost: 1201
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 39
Winning %: 36.3%
Total profit per day: $176,158.49 / 1231 = $143.10
Total Turnover: $10,924,146.53
Total ROI: 1.61%
ATP – SP $143,347.00 $8,335.87 5.8%
week profit/loss: -3395.76
FB Elite $43,000.00 $1,810.00 4.2%
week profit/loss: 1960
Skeeve $36,040.00 $(12,592.60) -34.9%
week profit/loss: 0
Combo FI $26,590.00 $(2,630.00) -9.9%
week profit/loss: 1150
TFA $229,421.00 $(39,675.50) -17.2%
week profit/loss: 85
NFL Totals $51,160.00 $(9,242.35) -18.1%
week profit/loss: 4970.86
NP Win $10,448.00 $(5,855.00) -56.0%
week profit/loss: -825
NHL Totals $36,139.00 $(2,485.00) -6.9%
week profit/loss: -4071.83
NBL Totals $25,030.00 $12,739.17 50.9%
week profit/loss: -371.60
NBL Line $18,440.00 $7,622.99 41.3%
week profit/loss: 3293.40
NBA Totals $33,455.00 $(2,242.39) -6.7%
week profit/loss: 3092.58
NBA H2H $17,215.00 $6,493.23 37.7%
week profit/loss: 5225.13
Oct 30th – Nov 5th +$24,294.44
Well who didn’t see that happening. I lower my bets and TFA has his best week ever. I really have no luck in this quest. But will not complain with the profit. I missed out on $6,000 profit by lowering bets and another $4,000 from Jonno missing the NFL upload this week. That’s an extra $10,000 I should have made this week. But in regards to TFA, I stand by my decision and believe it was the right thing to do.
It’s Melbourne Cup day today and it’s tradition for every Australian to bet on the big race, my tradition for the past 5 years has been to not bet on it. The articles making the rounds today are about how Tom Waterhouse is pissed that he could not get on at fixed odds on his mummy’s horse to win $1,000,000. This is off course a great headline grabbing approach from who I am slowly realising is just a very good marketer. My major complaint is that I can’t even get on for $1 at his book on the same horse for even worse prices then he wanted.
Onto the week that has been a great relief to me. Still a long way to go but I did feel like a one armed guy hanging over a cliff with a really itchy nose. This week has graciously allowed a bird to poop on the itch, making it go away for now. In the Tennis we had one big win, finally I bet against Nadal and he lost. Over the last 12 bets I have lost over $8k going against him, but won $4,000 of that back. All the other bets did not fare as well and the total profit for the week was $3,800.
The NBL totals model had been doing poorly during my trip and I knew it would be difficult to place bets before I returned so stayed away. Since I have got back it has been incredible. This week alone it made another $7,400. The issue is that it is not a big sport in Australia and I am betting between $2-4k on these totals, I have already had one account closed because of this and I have to spread my bets over 3-4 books at very poor lines. Not sure it’s going to be feasible to keep betting on this. The line bets are easier to place but made a $240 loss this week. This was also the first NBA week and the normally brilliant totals have started terribly. $5,300 down on them and only a $1,200 profit on the H2H bets. Hopefully it picks up soon.
NHL lost $900 this week and Jonno forgot to upload the NFL tips on Sunday after a big wedding and silly me went back and looked at what the results would have been. I am in quite a hole with NFL and the $4,000 I would have made would have helped. Can’t be too upset as Sportpunter is the only service who has actually made me a profit in the last 3 and a bit years.
Another loss of $500 on the golf and I am now desperate for my second win.
Onto Soccer and this week we finally got some good results. Newcastle beating Chelsea was the big one as it was a Elite bet and multiple TFA bets. Combo managed to lose $175 for the week but TFA had some other great wins and made $12,465, it doesn’t make up for even last weeks losses, but it was a very welcome relief. Football Elite also had a few other wins and made a very welcome $4,900. Skeeve went against TFA in his multi and I trust TFA much more then Skeeve so decided to skip that bet, a wise move indeed. Turning what should have been another losing week into a $700 profit.
So we finally have stopped the rot. Another replica of this week can see us into profit for the year, but I wont be counting any chickens just yet. I’ll be ecstatic if I can be under a $10,000 loss by next week and in profit by the new year. Santa if you read this you know what I want for Christmas. Onto next week.
Total profit for the week was $24,294.44
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,087,478.00
Profit/Loss: $(19,476.38)
POT: -1.79%
Bets Placed: 1,795
Won: 631
Lost: 1128
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 35
Winning %: 35.9%
Total profit per day: $168,045.71 / 1224 = $137.29
Total Turnover: $10,837,307.53
Total ROI: 1.55%
ATP – SP $139,681.00 $11,731.63 8.4%
week profit/loss: 3789.32
FB Elite $36,000.00 $(150.00) -0.4%
week profit/loss: 4920
Skeeve $36,040.00 $(12,592.60) -34.9%
week profit/loss: 759.20
Combo FI $26,090.00 $(3,780.00) -14.5%
week profit/loss: -175
TFA $223,171.00 $(39,760.50) -17.8%
week profit/loss: 12,465
NFL Totals $45,019.00 $(14,213.21) -31.6%
week profit/loss: 837.20
NP Win $9,623.00 $(5,030.00) -52.3%
week profit/loss: -500
NHL Totals $22,181.00 $1,586.83 7.2%
week profit/loss: -877.61
NBL Totals $18,290.00 $13,110.77 71.7%
week profit/loss: 7382.34
NBL Line $11,994.00 $4,329.59 36.1%
week profit/loss: -239.14
NBA Totals $11,970.00 $(5,334.97) -44.6%
week profit/loss: -5334.97
NBA H2H $6,387.00 $1,268.10 19.9%
week profit/loss: 1268.10
Changing TFA bet size
With over $56,000 lost in less then 2 months following TFA and no confidence in the model, it’s time to lower the bets to stay in the game for as long as possible. I hate doing this as I have pretty much conceded that at best this season will be breakeven, Hell, if it does reach breakeven I’ll streak down my street. It will off course be very likely that as of this week the whole thing turns around and it goes on the greatest run it ever has.
But I have to be realistic and another bad week means the entire bank will be gone. I want to still be around in the new year in the hopes we have the same sort of return as last season.
The old bets were $600 on Homes and $350 on Aways. This will change to $500 Homes and $250 Aways.
It’s going to hurt either way. If it continues to suck I will lose money and still not really be that happy knowing I would have lost even more and if it goes onto win I will be pissed that I could have made so much more.
What have other TFA members done? I know of one who has already stopped.
