Another great week. But some very disappointing results for some systems. So lets start with them.
The bad
After the great start I had, NFL has now come into negative territory for the season, such a shame. Hopefully it can turn around.
The big issue I had this week was with Football Investor. At the start of the season he set out what the maximum bank should be and he said it would be very safe as the bank size was double the size of any previous loss. After he has been on a terrible run and lost more then every before, he comes out and says that everyone should now increase their bank size. WTF, off course if people had unlimited money then we could increase our bank all the time and eventually all systems would make a profit, even martingale. This really pissed me off and I thought he had a more professional service then this. Instead of telling his subscribers to throw more money at the problem, I hope he takes some time and looks into what could be causing his model to pick losing teams week after week. This week strikezone picked 5 low priced favourites and they all lost. Variance is one thing, but too many tipsters use this as an excuse when there could be a real underlying issue. Something is seriously wrong with the model and he needs to put in some analysis. I won’t be moving my bank and when/if it hits that mark, I will give up the service. So far it has cost me well over $5,000 plus subscription fees and I wont continue to throw good money after bad. Rant over.
The other issue this week is my own fault completely. Early on in this blog you may have seen me talk about 100k Horses, it was a blog by a fellow Australian who had been making a nice profit betting on Australian Horse racing. I really wanted to find a good service for Aussie racing as I thought it would be a good fit for my portfolio. He was posting his tips on line for free and I followed for a few months, but after losing close to $5,000 I decided his tips just weren’t any good. Following him was no one’s fault but my own, and it was one of the lessons i learnt, not to follow free tips. Anyway, fast forward a year and he now has a paying sms service. I emailed and asked him for past results, ROI and all the basic stuff I would assume any service would keep. He said he didn’t keep this sort of information but he was well in profit and no subscriber had ever stopped using his service after they had signed up. This should have been my first big red flag, but as the service was cheap, I decided to give it a try. The first week it went amazing, but since then he has had a terrible run. After the first month where I lost around $800, i sent him an sms asking how he had done, he said he had a fantastic month, I asked how this was possible, he then said the sms service only has 30% of the bets he places as most of his bets are placed at the track after he has had a good chance to look at the horses. Red flag number 2. I really should stop following this service right now, but I hold out hope (stupidly) that he might still make me a profit. The bank size is $7,500 for this one and at -$5,000 ill have to ask myself some serious questions. Even when I think I have everything sorted out, I still make stupid mistakes. I’ll continue on and if this one costs me another $5,000 the hurt will help me not make the same mistake again.
The Good
NHL finally had an awesome week. Saturday had 6 from 6 wins and the season is in a nice positive territory (the numbers below are for the past year and a half betting so include the previous season as well). NBL H2H had some nice wins but that was negated by NBL totals. FB Elite and Skeeve also had a winning week which is nice to see. Once again, my UK Racing model had a killer week, I know I cant expect this sort of profit every week, but boy is it nice when it comes back to back.
So that’s it for another week. Some issues I need to keep an eye on, but the profits keep rolling along. Looking forward to the new year.
Total profit for the week was $6,083.74
Tennis – ATP $551,183.13 $24,270.82 4.4%
week profit/loss: -263
NHL – Totals $215,797.00 $(18.22) 0.0%
week profit/loss: 3268.01
NBL $32,600.00 $(4,664.05) -14.3%
week profit/loss: 1062.27
NBL Totals $40,101.00 $2,619.65 6.5%
week profit/loss -624.09
NFL $20,191.00 $(1,627.46) -8.1%
week profit/loss: -230.95
FB Elite $18,650.00 $(1,430.85) -7.7%
week profit/loss: 615
Skeeve $20,439.00 $882.96 4.3%
week profit/loss: 780
New Horse $39,576.18 $14,111.48 35.7%
week profit/loss: 4505
Football Investor $14,995.00 $(4,528.00) -30.2%
week profit/loss: 864
Strikezone $28,325.00 $(805.80) -2.8%
week profit/loss: -1799
Oz horses $13,663.50 $(2,961.97) -21.7%
week profit/loss: -2093.50
Stats
Total bet amount: $4,107,408.94
Profit/Loss: $49,763.58
POT: 1.2%
Bets Placed: 9,728
Won: 3,992
Lost: 5,400
Half Payout: 4
Refunded: 332
Winning %: 42.5%
Profit per day: 49,763.58 / 524 = $94.96