What a killer 7 days. Was happy to wake up this morning to an Ipswich win which returned $6,000, but there was nothing else to smile about this week. It was a classic September week with Soccer piling on the losses. Add to that a big loss from Sportpunter and year 5 once again looks bleak. After 5 years of the exact same scenario you would think I would learn to just stop betting until the last few months of the year. But nope, I continue on expecting variance to catch up and it never does. In the new year I will take a very detailed look at the July-Dec period and see what is really going on and figure out ways to stop it from happening for a 6th straight year.
Tomorrow I have a guest article from my spy deep inside one of Australia’s big corporate bookies. The SBC ran an article in this months magazine that really reflects poorly on the team there. Their lead article was about how to hide from the bookies and create second accounts. The article simply said that all you need to do is hide your IP address by using a VPN. I highlighted how wrong this was and Pete said he would talk to the articles writer, but nothing has been said since. Do not follow the advice you read in that article. It will lead to your shiny new account being closed down quicker then ever. SBC tries to help the average punter, but articles like this do much more harm then good. In tomorrows article my spy lays down the exact things that these bookmakers look at and the amount of effort that goes into profiling each and every customer. Once you know what they look for, you will be better prepared. Once we know the rules of the game, we are much better equipped to game the system.
Another article which people have dogged me to write for the past year will also be up in the next few weeks. I will expose Australia’s biggest scam tipster service. You can check out the site yourself at betjam.com.au and see if you can see why it is a scam website. This will be a good exercise for those readers who want to figure out what makes up an honest tipster and a complete scammer. I will go into great detail in this article and I’m sure you will learn a lot.
Lets move onto this week losses. Starting with Sportpunter. Things could have been so different. The biggest bet of the year was on Hawthorn to win by more then 19.5 points. With 7 minute remaining in the game, things were looking great as they held a 30 point lead. They were in attack and the ball was bouncing to one of their players well inside the 50. He had space and time and all he needed to do was pick up the ball, turn around, read a book and then slot home a goal. Instead he completely misses the ball and ruins what would have been the nail in the coffin. Instead Port Adelaide get the ball, go down the other end and score and this starts their revival. Hawthorn held on for a 3 point win and I can’t wait to see the Swans smash them in the final. In the end thanks to a resounding Sydney win, the model only lost $3,500 this week. But it could have easily been a massive profit. The baseball totals continue on their merry way, another $1,800 profit this week. Sadly NFL totals had an absolute shocker and lost $5,400. NRL both picked the underdogs and they both lost by 1 point for a $400 loss.
ClubGowi’s horror run continues. $2,900 lost this week. Diamond Edge lost $1,300 and PCG made $900. Tom who runs Pro Computer Gambler is also going to take some time and answer any questions I have for him to post on the blog. If you want anything answered by Tom about the service, how he records odds, any issues you see or just general questions about how his model works then let me know in the comments below and I’ll add them to my list. Both golf services lost a combined $600.
Onto the Soccer tipsters and shock horror, most of them sucked. The two profitable ones were Football Elite with $1,900 profit and the ever reliable Football Investor with $1,000 profit. Football Value lost $3,000 and TFA a mammoth $4,500. But even worse then all of them was the Winabobatoo service with a $6,000 loss. After just a few weeks I have lost any faith in this service. The odds recorded are bullshit and while the articles written each week are nice, they do nothing to help me make any profit. As always I will see the year out so I can write a proper review, but from what I have seen so far, this service does not deserve the accolades it gets from SBC.
So that’s it for another poor week. Not enjoying betting one bit at the moment. Will just need to keep persevering and if the past 4 and a bit years are anything to go by, it won’t be long before this all turns around and I’m cheering on the profits again. Don’t forget to come back tomorrow for an article which will really shed a light on the bookies.
[mc4wp_form]
Total Loss for the week was $21,994.84
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $1,412,319.00
Profit/Loss: $40,145.65
POT: -2.84%
Bets Placed: 2143
Won: 842
Lost: 1036
Half Payout: 19
Refunded: 246
Winning %: 44.8%
Total profit per day: $307,379.19 / 1546 = $198.82
Total Turnover: $15,755,062.37
Total ROI: 1.95%
AFL H2H – SP $46,456.00 $11,281.42 24.3%
week profit/loss: 1320
AFL Line – SP $241,906.00 $(28,861.77) -11.9%
week profit/loss: -4802.20
SP MLB $228,907.00 $15,142.38 6.6%
week profit/loss: 1783.15
NFL Totals $22,192.00 $1,144.50 5.2%
week profit/loss: -5403.40
NRL SP $32,841.00 $4,625.35 14.1%
week profit/loss: -408
ClubGowi $167,649.00 $4,090.46 2.4%
week profit/loss: -2638.75
GOWI $3,432.00 $669.00 19.5%
week profit/loss: -250
Diamond Edge $136,000.00 $1,456.50 1.1%
week profit/loss: -1302.50
PCG $108,017.00 $(3,881.21) -3.6%
week profit/loss: 869.50
Jason Kelly Golf $4,441.00 $(3,841.00) -86.5%
week profit/loss: -275
Betswot $6,138.00 $(4,383.00) -71.4%
week profit/loss: -325
FB Elite $5,500.00 $855.00 15.5%
week profit/loss: 1905
Football Value $8,000.00 $(3,925.00) -49.1%
week profit/loss: -3000
TFA 21 $21,487.00 $(2,752.00) -12.8%
week profit/loss: -437
TFA 41 $24,500.00 $(3,820.00) -15.6%
week profit/loss: -3330
6-21-31 $8,987.00 $(2,187.00) -24.3%
week profit/loss: -687
D1-D6 $4,000.00 $(535.00) -13.4%
week profit/loss: -35
Mike Lindley $7,500.00 $(545.00) -7.3%
week profit/loss: 5
WINABOBATOO $38,500.00 $(7,270.50) -18.9%
week profit/loss: -6034
FBI combo $3,000.00 $2,690.00 89.7%
week profit/loss: 1050