Skeeve picks reply

In yesterdays weekly update, I had a go at both Pinnacle sports and Skeeve picks. To be honest I thought I’d be writing about the Pinnacle issue, but I have had a reply from the head of the sportsbook and his direct reply was ‘I can unequivocally say we do not, and never have operated, any bet delay’. I have no reason to not believe him as Pinnacle has been the greatest sportsbook for a very long time. But to me and a few others it did seem like there was some sort of bet delay on French league 2 bets. As I only have my experience on this issue and no proof of what happened, I am happy to believe it was a technical issue, the next time something like this happens I will make sure to get actual proof (video). Pinnacle are great at replying to concerns and I had a private conversation with them where they let it be known they are more then happy to answer all my issues out in the open.

I also had a go at Skeeve as even though he had a perfect week, I felt that he is introducing a few third party services in the hopes of spreading the risk. I had no real problem with this as I do it with my portfolio and he has a business to run. You need other offerings to take up the slack when your main one is not working so well. I believe he and I can see that a few subscribers will be leaving at the end of the year and he needed to prepare for a future where maybe his own tipping has lost its edge. What I did have a concern with was what that said to me, and that was that Skeeve was unsure about his own selections, to me it seemed that these backup services are him trying to cover his business in case he fails (maybe I extrapolated more from it then I should have). I thought, why should I put all my trust in his picks if he doesn’t seem to be fully supporting his own thoughts. That was the point I was trying to get across in my not so elegant style of writing.

This morning I woke up to a Graeme-esque (TFA) length tirade (the length was Graeme-esque, not the tirade) in my comments section. I felt Skeeves voice should not languish in the comments section where only a few people will see them and instead I will directly answer his comments in a new blog post. Hat tip to Cassini for showing me how to produce lots of content this way. I will post his comment and my answers will be in bold. I hope we can have a constructive discussion and am more then happy to let Skeeve (and any other tipster) write as many guest posts as they would like. My main goal here is to help the average punter looking for a few good services to follow.

I believe Skeeve might have reached a boiling point and just decided that enough was enough as his comment feels directed not just at me, but at all the subscribers that send him emails and complain. I will try and be restrained in the way I answer as even though I feel he went a bit far on a few things, I can understand the strain he is probably under and we all need to vent (heck, I do it weekly right here).

I also have noticed that I have been very mean on this blog in the last few months. I felt there were a few issues that needed to be addressed and I do not tread lightly when I have problems. For some this is seen as a breath of fresh air, for others it is seen as me being a dick. I will try and be more sympathetic to the tipsters I follow in the coming months, unless they suck, then they are so in for it πŸ™‚

Onto the comment and my replies.

Hi Steve,

Steve: Hello Skeeve

I haven’t visited your blog for some time, but it looks like I’ll have to reply to almost every post you’ve written in these few months as there’s an enormous quantity of rubbish and lies written about my service. I’ll just start with this latest post and move to the older posts when I find the time.

Steve: Hi mate, there may be a lot of rubbish on this site, but no lies at all. This site is totally based on my own opinion and I strive to put into words every week how I feel personally in regards to how my bets are doing, how each service is doing and my general disposition of having to deal with wild swings.

First of all, the German Football Bets that “got to you” (I’m so sorry they got to you, mate) are the latest addition to my own betting portfolio. If you’d read the e-mails instead of deleting them, you’d know all there is to know about it, but no – you’ve traditionally decided not just to delete them, but to publically shit on a project you know nothing about. So let me waste even more time on the peripheral aspects of my service and let your readers know what it’s really about. When BetPlace went under, not because they weren’t profitable but because it was a big team that didn’t manage to attract enough customers, many of my clients have asked if I could make some sort of a deal with interested tipsters from ex-BetPlace (the guys from BetPlace and me are from the same part of the world). I went on a couple of meetings, learned that almost all BetPlace tipsters have switched to other projects in the meantime, but managed to make a deal with Harley, a German football tipster with a long-term ROI of 11% who wrote more than three thousand articles over at BetPlace. Subsequently, I’ll be sending all of Harley’s picks to my clients free of charge at least until the end of the season. I’ll be paying Harley for his efforts out of my own pocket while my clients can choose between following him or deleting the e-mails.

Steve: I off-course read the emails before deleting them, at the end of the day I want to make as much profit as possible. My issue with adding the services is expressed above. To me it seems you are proofing these new services in essence to protect yourself. I had no issue with this from a business perspective. Sportpunter has a heap of models and some that make a loss every season, he does offer these bad ones for free and rarely talks about them. I had a go at TFA about having so many systems also. Now over the past 4 years I have learnt (mostly) to not dive into a new system with at least a few years of proofed results. I had to figure this out the hard way. I can also see the benefits for these tipsters, they get to show their skills to a much wider audience of people who have paid for a service before and are likely to buy again. From a business perspective that is perfectly fine with me. If your goal is to turn Skeeve picks into a betadvisor style site then that’s great. But you have to understand what it says to me, and again, this is my blog and all thoughts are mine (but these same thoughts were expressed to me by others). What it says is that you don’t fully believe in your own service. That is what I paid for, your brain. I believed that you have an uncanny ability to produce profits in a niche league. Now I’m sure you don’t think like this at all, I’m sure you see it as an added extra service you are providing for your customers. That’s your opinion and I respect that.

The set-up is the same as with the Croatian Football Bets, another free project I’m involved with for a year now as an administrator and a senior advisor. You’ve probably deleted all the e-mails, so let me just say that the Croatian Football Bets are currently at a +14.92 point profit (19.3% ROI, 59.6% ROC) for the 2013/14 season so far (one-point flat stakes, advised bank: 25 points). These picks are also free of charge for my clients, at least until the end of the season. You’re welcome.

Steve: I sadly did not dive into these bets as there was no past history but am more then happy with my decision. The beauty here is that if they went bad, then o well, you were offering these for free and they didn’t work. You do keep repeating, until the end of the season, which imply that they and the German picks will be a paid service from next season. Again, that’s fine and many tipsters need to give away tips for free for years before charging (TFA is a great example). But to take the high road and say you are doing this as a courtesy to your clients is a bit much. You are marketing a new product you hope to sell next season. They may be amazing services and make people a lot of money, only time will tell.

Also, I’ve advised many five-point bets so far. This was the first five-point bet this season (it landed of course), but we’ve had some last season (and every season before that) – maybe you were winning a soccer tournament somewhere and missed them.

Steve: I do tend to win a lot of soccer tournaments. I did state it was the first I could remember, and sadly my memory usually doesn’t extend longer then a season. I should do research before posting, but as I have explained, I have about 10 minutes each week to spit out my feelings and then move on. So apologies for the lack of research on that one.

Should I feel relieved that TFA didn’t have a bet on Tamworth because, if he had, you would’ve given the other double a miss as well? Also, you do realise you would’ve catched better odds for the five-point double if you had taken the bet straight away and not, I don’t know, twelve hours later, don’t you?

Steve: I have made this a problem for myself here, I follow a number of tipsters and they don’t always agree. Usually I just bet all selections, but this is not the profitable way to do it. I now take a few factors into account when placing these opposing bets and so far it has saved me many many thousands. Onto the odds I could get and from the start I have told my visitors that I do not bet straight away as I am asleep when the tips come out and the majority of the time they rebound and I get much better then quoted odds. As you are about to read over all my past posts (some cracking stuff in there), you will see that I continually praise the way you quote odds and that on average I beat you odds by betting later. I again did a lot of research on this and found that checking your odds throughout the day was the most profitable way forward. In this one case it wasn’t and therefore I was strict enough with myself not to follow as it was under the minimum odds. Yes it cost me, but the extra money I have made by waiting and getting better odds far far outweighs this one missed profit.

So the draw was very, very lucky and when a team I’m betting on misses a penalty, hits the woodwork four times and concedes from the other team’s only shot on goal I’m just rubbish? Sure. Very fair, very consistent, thanks mate.

Steve: Yes it was very very lucky. Chester had a player sent off very early and kept taking the lead. Here is a quote from Cassini about your pick as well “including fluking a 3:3 draw in the AFC Chester v Nuneaton Borough game!”, I do not see you commenting on his blog about that. This is a real bugbear of mine and I have posted about it before. When you have a losing bet where woodwork was hit or penalties missed you are the first to let everyone know in your recap emails, o woe is me, it’s not that I didn’t pick well, it was that the woodwork got in the way or a player didn’t play his best or the ref was a cheat. This was your quote on the Chester win. “That’s more like it. Chester and Nuneaton shared points in a high-scoring 3:3 draw”. So you are not very consistent in your commenting, there have been a number of last minute goals and missed penalties that have gone your way, but I have never heard once you say how lucky we got. It’s betting, luck goes both ways but if someone was to read your emails, they would assume all the gods ever created were against you. I feel your ego gets in the way sometimes and it is the case on many of your recap emails.

If anyone is thinking about starting a tipping service, think again. Or, at least, don’t try and be fair to everyone. Don’t have a waiting list, just take all the clients you can, even if it means destroying the odds for everyone. Money is the only thing it matters, not fair play. Don’t record odds with a fair delay, just record the odds with StanJames and BetVictor. They don’t even have to be the odds available at that moment in time – yesterday’s odds are good as well. Sure, none of your clients will match the official results, but the official results will look better. Also, if you go on a prolonged losing run, just go insane and lose the entire betting bank. Why would you want to help your clients get some of those lost points back by sending them specialised picks from proven tipsters free of charge? That’s mental. Also, forget about the detailed previews, picks coming at the same time every week, recap e-mails, season reviews, other publications that try and help your clients maximise the profit and avoid dodgy bookmakers and fellow services. What’s wrong with simply sending the name of the team you’re betting on, without a preview, without the available odds, without the minimum value odds attached… Last but not least, don’t give bloggers a 50% discount. I was a blogger myself, sharing my picks for free before I turned my service into a paid one so that I could get rid of the boring freelance jobs and pay the rent (not everyone had a betting bank by default – some of us started with nothing), and I really had nothing but respect for the likes of Rowan Day, which is why I offered a 50% discount to any blogger who will follow and write about my picks throughout the season. The only condition was to follow all picks and not improvise every single week. You’ve failed to do so. You don’t owe me money. I don’t want your money. I’ll get you back to green with my picks and, when the season ends, you will be removed from the mailing list and won’t be welcome anymore. As far as the blogger discount is concerned – I’ll be smarter than that next time. No more blogger discount. Sorry, other bloggers. As far as I’m concerned, feel free to blame your favorite blogger.

Steve: If you have read my blog you would know I am on the exact same page with you on this, I have made it my quest over the last few months to bring these issues to a wider audience and have something done about them. I have praised your service no end about the way it is run, how fair you record odds and how you should be the standard and not the outlier. I will forgive your ignorance on this point as you stated earlier you had not read my blog and will be happy to accept your apology after you have.

Onto the 50% discount for bloggers. After my first season you said I was not entitled to it as I hadn’t given a fair representation of your service (this was true as I had been away for a week and missed some winning bets), I was happy to pay for the service again. In the second season you again did not give me any type of blogger discount. It seems you are happy to give the discount as payment to write better reviews about the service. I am more then happy to pay for all tipsters and have been offered free membership from a few tipsters before and have taken them up on the offer, but I pay for at least 80% of my tips and have never ever received a “Blogger” discount from Skeeve. So again, you should have done some research before accusing me of getting your service cheaper then it is, which is by far the most expensive I subscribe to. I do apoligise to other bloggers that may have gotten this discount, but if it means you no longer need to hold back and be as honest as possible then that can only be a good thing.

Lets also get onto the “not everyone had a betting bank by default – some of us started with nothing” insult you flung my way. Never ever assume anything mate. I started with $60. Yep, that’s right. $60. Let me repeat that for you. $60. 10 years ago and I built that up over the next 6 years to my $50,000 betting bank. But that’s a story for another time. I still work those so called boring freelance jobs to pay the rent and work on my own business. To be honest, it shouldn’t matter if I had a $50k starting bank or a $5,000 bank. The only difference is that my results maybe have an extra zero then a lot of my readers, but the percentages will all be very close.

Now, I also can understand how tough running a tipster service must be, every week you put it all on the line and you have to deal with not only losing your own money when things don’t go well, but also the knowledge that you have lost clients money. You are always constantly worried that a bad season could end a business you have worked on for years and you also constantly have to deal with negative emails and dicks like me. Personally I applaud you for the amount of patience and skill you have to run a service. I know I don’t have those skills. I can understand when it may get to be too much and you post an outburst like you have on my site.

In regards to me not being allowed back in next season, that is your right to choose who can be a part of your service, but we both knew I wasn’t going to be continuing next season.

I wasn’t joking. I’ll be replying to every single post that features lies and rubbish as soon as I find the time.

Steve: I look forward to the increased page count in my analytics. I will also take the time to reply to your comments.

If you don’t want to lose everything you have (believe it or not, I don’t want that to happen to anyone – I know how it is, to have nothing), you will have to take a long-term approach and not improvise every single week. Oh, I’ll take this bet. Oh, I won’t take this bet. Oh, this guy is rubbish. Oh, the same guy is great only seven days later. Oh, I’ll take this bet tomorrow. Oh, this bet clashes with some other bet from a completely different type of service. Oh, I’ll just ignore one of those two. Why? I have no idea. But why not.

Steve: Thanks for the advice. Is 4 years not a long term approach? I don’t know any other blogger who posts a weekly P/L who has been around as long as me, especially with my swings. Just 4 months ago I was -$50,000 for the season, but knew this is a long term venture. I have seen hundreds of similar blogs come and go. A little respect for my persistance at least. I only improvised your bets because of a few reasons pointed out above. Every other tip has been followed to the letter from every other tipster.

I know I have still so much to learn in this game and at the stakes I now bet, a bad season is going to really hurt. I have been very fortunate to find a number of solid tipsters and also understand how lucky I have been.

In regards to the weekly posts, I have thought about this as well, I have thought about moving to a fortnightly or monthly blog post, this will at least decrease the massive amount of variance all services experience on a weekly basis. But at the end of the day, if I posted once a month, people would forget about the site. People actually enjoy coming back every week to see how I have done. As I don’t spend any time trading or learning about betting, I have very little else to offer apart from some big wins and losses every week. I believe my readers are very bright people and know that one weekly result means very little to the overall performance of a tipster and instead would go to my yearly reviews to get a better perspective.

I bet you’ll think of me in a few years, when you realise a thing or two about tipsters. At this moment in time, you and me live in completely different worlds, different on many levels. You think a tipster is rubbish if he has a break-even season or two, even if that comes after five, six or seven consecutive profitable seasons. I think a tipster is rubbish if he loses his entire betting bank and isn’t profitable in the long run. You think a tipster is great if he’s had a good weekend. I think a tipster is great if he’s had a good career so far and if he’s a fair guy and a hard worker. Good luck, mate. You’re gonna need it.

Steve: I will think about you in years to come and check in and hope you get over this little bump and continue to make your clients a nice healthy profit. I don’t think any tipster I follow is rubbish, I’ve gambled many millions on the fact that they aren’t rubbish. Every week I have the option to stop following and every new season I have the option to pay more money to continue following. I have felt some I have followed are rubbish and over the years I will come to that conclusion about many more. I feel it is possible that some tipsters have lost their edge, or there is a change in the game or many other factors which can render a tipster no longer profitable. There’s only so many years of history you can coast on. Yes, in those years you were great, but I did not benefit from them, I have only my own experience to go on.

Those who shit and spit on fair-play services that never had a losing season, that try and be fair to their clients even if it means less money for them deserve harsher words than these. I have better things to do though, but I might start a blog where I could write about my clients in the same manner they’re writing about my service. If I don’t, some poor guy could get a lot of wrong ideas about a lot of things. Let me say something to that poor guy – I hope you’re smarter than that.

Steve: I would so read that blog. It would be amazing. One thing you have to understand is that this blog isn’t here for tipsters, it started as a place for me to keep tabs on my profit and loss and has evolved into what I hope is a resource and review site for other potential idiots like myself who have zero chance of making a profit betting on their own. I have never said your service isn’t fair, in fact I say the exact opposite. The only bad things I have said are about your current run of form since I have been following you, I can’t go back in time and join your service when it was making a profit (wish I could). These are my opinions and to the poor guy Skeeve was addressing, I hope you are smart, I believe my readers are the top of the crop and not losing punters. I believe they make informed decision before investing their own money into a service. After almost 4 years I know how hard it is to make a profit from this game.

cheers,
skeeve

Steve: Cheers mate. I do think you may have just had enough when you wrote this and understand you feel the need to defend yourself. I invite you to write a guest post on this blog (unedited by me) with whatever you want to say to my readers. I hope you can see my point of view a little better also and understand where I am coming from, as I am a customer of yours and usually if one customer feels a certain way then a few others probably do so too, I just have a public voice while many of the others do not.

So there we have it loyal readers. I believe I need to think a bit more about how my comments will effect the tipsters I follow, but also feel that tipsters should take what I say on board. I feel my relationship with the majority of the guys I pay are very good and we usually have very fruitful discussions. I can’t please everyone and my personality type is going to rub some people the wrong way. I hope my readers and tipsters understand that these are just one persons opinion and you can add whatever weight you feel to what I say. This blog is here purely for entertainment sake and anyone thinking of following a tipster should do their own due diligence. I’ll leave it at that.

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  • livioo

    Well this got my blood boil. What a nasty, bitter and vile reply from Skeeve. I’d thank him for not taking me on for next season. I would also thank him for stopping me take ANY of his bets from this moment onward. It takes more than 4 years of proofed services for people to invest their money. When behind them stand these kind of buffoons, that should tell you what an “opportunity” you’re investing into.

  • Hey Livioo, I can understand his anger, yes he expressed it a bit forcefully but I can see his side too.
    After 3 season I am only down $3,000 (not including fees) following his tips. In reality that is nothing at all. I believe long term he will be fine, and the last few years are just a bump. To have poor years and just about break even is pretty good.

    I was never attacking his results, I was attacking the way he acts and expressing my own opinion on his service.

    I was always going to stop following at the end of this season not based on the results but for many other factors.

    I’m happy he took the chance to post on the blog and I hope he also takes the time to write a detailed blog post when he has taken a bit of time.

  • livioo

    You are too kind Steve. If any service breaks even after 1 season that is more than enough proof that you shouldn’t be following. If after 3 seasons you are down money then it’s your fault. Skeeve is getting paid a check every month and right now laughing. You have spent a lot of time and effort following his advice, paid him money, trusted him for 3 years and still down $3000 ? And after all of this you get a reply like he just gave you?! That is just wrong. I don’t comment much and I respect you for turning a portofolio into a successfull venture. I love reading your blog and always hoping you do well. I’ve had a portofolio once and it’s not an easy thing to do. Here is what I’ve realised when following services like this. Their edge needs to be consistent and considerable. If you end up breaking even for whatever reason at the end of just 1 season you are wasting your time. Stop finding excuses for them, as I’ve said they are getting the check, not you. I won’t even go to the services that lose you money. The way I look at it, if after paying them a subscription, wasting hours to place their bets and end up breakeven or worse with a loss than it’s a BAD investment. Plain and simple. You have enough good services in your portfolio to make a fantastic living.

  • Cheers Livioo.
    I see things a little differently to you. I try and placethe blame on myself more then the tipsters.
    It is me who makes the final decision to bet or not when presented with all the facts.

    If these facts are misrepresented by the Tipster then yes, he is dodgy and it is completely his fault.

    There is also the case of variance and sadly every single tipster will eventually have a break-even or losing year. Maybe the great ones may only have 1 bad year in 100, but it will happen. Even though TFA has lost me a heap of money this year, I will follow again as I feel over time it will make me a profit.

    We are not at war with Tipsters, we should see them as our artillery against the bookmakers. If I could beat the bookmakers myself then I would, but I can’t so hire my own mercenary’s.

    Thanks again for posting, i love being able to talk with readers.

  • BetPreviews Thomas

    Steve & Skeeve – Nothing like a good honest open discussion, there is always something to learn! Good work.

    The question I have is in relation to paragraph 2 of the above post where Steve you say ‘Skeeve was unsure about his own selections’.How exactly did he phrase the wording of his selections as for me this is important.

    I bet a lot of picks from experts/journos/analysts and I have 12 different guys that I follow, all from different areas – paid subs, twitter, journos – but they have all gone through and passed my testing protocol which includes stuff like tracked results, betting philosophy, mental approach, accessibility, pricing, analysis etc

    One of the most important things that comes from the above testing protocol is my complete faith in their ability to analyze markets so if I get a vibe from an email that ‘he’s unsure about his selections’ then that raises a big issue.

    It makes me question that tipster ability to deliver a long term profit as we all know that there will be dips throughout the season but it’s how they deal with it that makes the difference i.e mental approach.

    This may not be the case with Skeeve but how exactly was the email worded as this could be a big concern for followers like Steve and other potential subscribers.

    Look forward to your reply and keep up the good work. Good to see detailed blogs like this on your portfolio.

    Thomas

  • Skeeve picks

    Hi everyone,

    I suppose I did go a bit far on a few things – I’m sorry if it offended anyone. It was just a bit too much, reading all of Steve’s posts from the last few months in one go. I would really love to find the time and reply to everything I strongly believe to be rubbish and lies (or, if not lies, mean and misleading non-truth:D) as soon as possible, but it might take me a few days or even weeks. As far as the additional guest blog post is concerned, maybe after the play-off finals. I simply can’t find the time at the moment – too much actual work – so this will have to be my last reply for this week. I hope to be back after the weekend though. πŸ™‚

    @steve: I just think you got many things very wrong, mate (so did I, mea culpa). I always believe in my picks. To be honest, if you could actually see the process behind the picks, the work put in, all the little things we check, all the files and excel sheets, I think you’d believe in them as well (sorry if it sounds cocky). With a hundred picks per season, prolonged bad runs are bound to happen, but this is not the time nor the place for a detailed analysis of my service. Or maybe it is, why not, but I can’t find the time at the moment.

    When you were quoting my latest recap e-mail, the one that starts with: “That’s more like it”, you’ve only quoted a sentence and a half, put it out of context and obviously chosen not to understand what I obviously wanted to say. The whole second sentence goes like this: “Chester and Nuneaton shared points in a high-scoring 3:3 draw while Braintree, Luton, Halifax and Eastleigh have all managed to win their respective games for a long overdue perfect day”. Cassini is right btw, when I wrote: “That’s more like it”, I was just relieved it wasn’t a late goal going against us this time. As far as the “high-scoring draw” is concerned, I definitely didn’t expect six goals, but I can’t see why I can’t get a bit of credit for another succsesful bet on a draw. I don’t advise many draw bets, but there’s always a few good reasons when I do. Here’s the whole preview:

    “SKRILL PREMIER: Chester – Nuneaton DRAW (3.25 @188bet) 2 points FT 3:3 (+4.5)

    I think none of the two teams would be unhappy with a draw here. Chester would be satisfied with a point against 6th Nuneaton, play-off candidates with a very good away record while Nuneaton would be satisfied with a point at draw-specialists Chester who haven’t lost a single game against a top-eleven team so far, especially after a 0:5 defeat to runaway league leaders Luton. Anyway, five of Chester’s six home games against top-nine teams have finished as draws, as have exactly 50% of all their home games in the Skrill Premier so far while twelve of their sixteen home games were either draws, narrow wins or narrow defeats. I’m sure Nuneaton will do their best to put the 0:5 defeat to Luton behind them with a solid defensive performance. They’ve managed to beat Chester 1:0 at home back in November, but this is Burr’s Chester – a much better team – and this time they’re on the road. They haven’t shared points on many occasions lately, but two of their four away games at bottom-six teams were draws, fourteen of their seventeen away games so far were either draws, narrow wins or narrow defeats and I definitely expect another tight game at the Exacta.
    Anything better than 3.00 looks great to me.

    3.43 with Pinnacle…
    3.37 with 5Dimes…
    3.30 with Bet365, Bwin, Ladbrokes, Unibet…
    3.25 with 188bet, Coral…
    3.20 with Bet-at-home, Paddy Power, StanJames, Tote, Will Hill…
    3.15 with Sportingbet…
    3.10 with SBO…
    3.09 with 12bet/Dafabet…”

    I did think Nuneaton would put in a better defensive performance, but I definitely didn’t expect a goalless draw. I’m not running a draw-only service like Cassini’s XX Draws, I’ll only advise a draw bet from time to time. Due to the lack of away wins in the Skrill Premier (but not just the Skrill Premier, as far as I can see) this season, there have been a bit more draws lately and they did really great. The big problem this season were the doubles or, should I say, the quantity of doubles with one half winning and the other half failing (by one goal on most occasions) – that’s why I’m doing great in Cassini’s Friendly Tipster League sponsored by Skrill Premier’s Barcelona; he’s turning the doubles into one-point singles because of the League’s rules and that method proved to be superior this season. However, the doubles have made a +181 point profit at a 28% ROI in five years prior to the current season and made profit every single season so far, so I guess I was due a poor season with them (on the other hand, another couple of winning doubles and they’ll be in profit for the season). It’s definitely time for a detailed doubles anaylsis to see if it would be more profitable to turn them into single bets on a regular basis, but I can’t do it in early March. I suppose it would definitely be a much smoother ride. To get back to the bet on a draw, Chester have now shared points in five of their six home games against top-eight Skrill Premier teams and I really think it was a good bet. And I’m not sure why I have to defend a winning bet @3.25. πŸ™‚

    As far as the “no lies here” statement, here’s our e-mail discussion about the blogger discount (all e-mails were sent on May 10, 2013):

    Steve: “Hi Mate, Completely forgot about signing up again. Am happy to pay normal prices, but you did suggest last year that if I followed the model properly then I might get the bloggers discount :). I think I gave a fair representation of what a person betting fairly large numbers should expect with your service and tried to also make disclaimers when I could. I’m still happy to pay as I think this season was just a little hiccup, but no harm in asking. Cheers”

    Skeeve: “Hi Steve, I was planning to send you an e-mail regarding the blogger discount a few days ago, but then got my right arm burnt quite badly (a long story), so it’s not completely non-painful for me to answer to e-mails these days – it’s either that or typing with my left hand only which is what I’m doing right know and it’s bloody frustrating. πŸ™‚ Of course you can have a 50% blogger discount, as I promised – instead of 999 for both sets of picks, it’s 499 for you (and other bloggers), which means you can officially subscribe to the asian handicaps only (499e) and I’ll throw in the doubles for free. cheers, skeeve”

    Steve: “Hi Skeeve, Shit, hope your ok. Thanks mate, I’ll go and pay for that now. Don’t bother replying, and look after yourself. Cheers”
    I’m honestly sorry you’re down after three seasons, but both you and me know why you’re down. It’s because you’ve missed some of the most profitable weekends and even whole months. If you’d simply taken all the bets since August 2011, you’d be at +40 points profit at this moment in time.
    As I said, there’s a gazillion other details I’d like to reply to, but it will have to wait. But I’m not as mad, nasty, bitter and vile as some would suggest, I’m really not. Like I said, it was a bit much to read it all in one go, but I’m fine now. I am, however, planning to keep my edge and have many great seasons before I retire just so that I could prove all the doubters wrong. πŸ™‚ Losing my edge… You wish, industry! πŸ™‚

    @livioo: Some amazing thoughts, man. Here’s my personal favorites:

    “…If any service breaks even after 1 season that is more than enough proof that you shouldn’t be following…”
    πŸ˜€ Let’s take it up a notch. What about one month? Or maybe a week? Good luck with your long-term approach! Hope you have a portfolio of tipsters who only provide winning bets because anything else would be a BAD investment! πŸ™‚

    “…I’ve had a portofolio once and it’s not an easy thing to do…”
    And there’s my answer. πŸ™‚
    cheers,
    a nasty, bitter, vile buffoon πŸ™‚

  • livioo

    Besides the facts that I already mentioned, I want to make note of
    something that is even more conceirning and should be a rule when deciding to follow someone/or deciding to trust them. I concur with Thomas where you should assess the person on quite a few factors. Here’s what got me: “When you have a losing bet where woodwork was hit or penalties missed you are the first to let everyone know in your recap emails, o woe is me, it’s not that I didn’t pick well, it was that the woodwork got in the way or a player didn’t play his best or the ref was a cheat.”

    Readers, stay well away of anyone who will make excuses like this as to why they are losing. It’s outrageous. If anyone is attributing his losses to missed penaltys, refs etc. they are absolutely clueless about what they are doing. It’s mind blowing that he even won anything up to this point. There’s the variance for you.

    We are not at war with the tipsters, definitely. But at the same time let’s get something right. First of all you are the customer and you should be treated with respect especially since you’ve been with them for 3 years (you by the way got a nice “FU and there’s the door”). I have read every post and never found you to be too harsh to Skeeve. Myself and many others could have been a lot harsher.
    Second thing is let’s understand their business model for a second. That is most often overlooked. Why do cappers turn to a tipping service? Because they cannot make money themselves betting, in most cases. Here is what’s so good about running a tipping servie: You get a dividend every single month, safe and sound. Are we still supposed to act nicely?

    No disrespect to the other tipsters. I have not seen anything bad, more so, props to the ones who write very educated responses in reply to your posts.

  • livioo

    And here is my view on why tipping services should have consistent and considerable edge already. Because as you say variance will kick in. And when it kicks in it’s ugly. From my findings, when a tipping service already had a breakeven season it’s inevitable they will replicate that or worse. When you follow a service that runs at say 7% over 4 years, every year being steady at 7% that is, chances are when they have a poor season they will be in the region of 1% or 2% which is very fair considering all the other factors involved.

    But when you settle for tipsters who have had losing or breakeven seasons, expect to have it rough more often than not which is absolutely not worth it.

  • livioo

    Skeeve buddy, thanks for the intelligent reply. You got me buddy, that was the most intelligent thing you’ve said or done in the last week. You’ve outsmarted me. You are a witty buffoon. And I take it like a man.
    And let me tell you what else you are doing well. You are making money and I’m not. So again props to you. You are getting paid every month when the rest of us have to do other things to earn money.
    You are marketing yourself excellently and taking advantage of people who are clueless about tipping services. So congrats. My failings have nothing to do with anyone but myself, and I’ve learned it the hard way by dealing with characters like you, but thanks for pointing that out.
    It’s unfortunate that people will continue to give you money and be treated the way you like to treat them. I’m sure you will send me on my way in your next reply. Take care buddy, enjoy your niche.

  • Horse-trader

    Livioo. Congratulations as you made me finally register to this forum as someone who has been reading for a while now.

    Your point about not allowing a tipster to have a break even season is so faceplamingly wrong headed that I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt and refuse to believe you are that stupid, you appear to be able to operate a keyboard….

    Which means that you are having a wind up to keep the battle from dying down and thus are a total shit stirring cock-end.

    That is all.

  • livioo

    Horse-trader, take Skeeve to your grave. Make sure everyone knows it’s Skeeve and Skeeve’s Slave in there.

  • livioo

    Readers, just to clarify. My main grief is with Skeeve and his reply to Steve. Plain wrong given all the circumstances. Feel free to state your opinion on the matter. I brought up different reasons as to why I think it’s wrong. You guys decide if he is worth the money.
    The 2nd point I was touching on. Is it worth the tears, the hours involved, the money spent to follow a service that breaks even over 3 seasons? This was a friendly question towards Steve. Personally, I wouldn’t do it. I can absolutely understand why you would do it. Maybe an idea would be, the bank for Skeeve could’ve been invested into the Sportpunter AFL model. I’m not here to educate anyone, I surely haven’t been successful holding a portfolio. It’s just a debate, friendly debate of course. Everyone learns. And as Steve is incredibly nice and friendly I thought I should get into it, but again, a simple opinion.

  • Horse-trader

    I couldn’t care less about Skeeve mate. You on the other hand are doing nobody (especially Steve) no favours with your childishness.

    Steve will not thank you for your staggeringly inelegant ham fisted and downright childish attempt to “protect” him.
    You are making him look bad buddy, go and play with your Lego.

  • Skeeve picks

    As far as I’m concerned, I’m still waiting for my latest comment to be approved, I’ve tried to publish it several times a few hours ago…

  • Just woke up and all comments should be showing. I can see them all and all commenting is set to open on this blog. Which posts are you referring to?

  • Hey Thomas,
    Skeeve never said anything that would make me think he had no confidence in his selections. It was what he has done over the past season with his service that led me to that conclusion. By proofing other people’s services (not sure of the contract between himself and the tipsters), what that said to me was that he was looking to expand his service with new sources of revenue. This was all happening when a terrible run was happening and to me, it seemed that he was doing this as a just in case sort of thing.
    From that I came to my own conclusions that Skeeve was also unsure if he could continue to make a profit as were many of his subscribers.
    This is just my opinion on how I saw it and as you said, without complete faith in a tipsters ability, it makes it difficult to keep following their selections

  • Dean Creus

    Slightly off topic but I am sure I am not alone in saying that a blog on your journey from $60 to today would be a great read!

  • Hey Skeeve,

    Look forward to the blog post.

    If it wouldn’t be giving too much away then a post about how you come up with your selections and the research you do would be great, people would see how much work goes into being a tipster and could appreciate the costs associated with following one. I have always said how hard the job is and that I can never do it and how much respect I have for the work Tipsters do.

    I don’t think 1 bet should have any bearing, but you can not take credit for a 3-3 draw. Cassini put it better then I could, it was a fluke. But that’s fine, it’s gambling, these things happen both for and against. But it was pure arse and to claim otherwise is a bit much in my opinion.

    I could cherry pick comments from every single one of your reviews that show how off you were, and you could also cherry pick to show how right you were.

    for example “and I definitely expect another tight game”

    so you are saying your 100% sure it will be a tight game? it was not tight at all, it was open and had swings all over the place.

    But again, that’s me just cherry picking a comment and really is meaningless. I like that you have an ego, but when it gets in the way it is a problem. As I have mentioned, you have never once blamed yourself for a losing tip.

    In regards to the blogger discount, I was sure I paid the same price as others as you had offered a discount for all, but as I mentioned before, my memory is like a fish and I barely remember what happened last week.

    Again you are only seeing one side when you say “I’m honestly sorry you’re down after three seasons, but both you and me know why you’re down. It’s because you’ve missed some of the most profitable weekends and even whole months. If you’d simply taken all the bets since August 2011, you’d be at +40 points profit at this moment in time.”

    This is 100% not true. I did miss a great week in my first season when I was betting small stakes, but I have saved myself much more from missed bets this season and not taking bets. You need to see the whole picture and not the one or two weeks where I have missed a few winners.

    I don’t believe your nasty either, I think your defending yourself and that’s great. I think you will eventually turn this around and make good profit, but you seem on a vendetta against anyone who may criticize you. I am not against you, I am merely stating my opinion about MY feelings towards your service. As i tried to tell Livioo, we are not in competition with each other, we are on the same team, your success is my success.

    You have just attacked everything without taking one moment to thing about how your clients might be feeling, and customer service is a big part of what you do, without happy customers you have no service. I may have not been thinking about your feelings when I posted but I have taken the time to express that and apologise.

    Anyway, all the best over the last part of the season and I look forward to posting your guest post.

  • Skeeve picks

    If I remember correctly, it starts with something like: “@livioo: So, what you’re saying is that a profit of +620 points at a 12% ROI and a 650% ROC after more than 1300 picks in more than seven years is just variance? πŸ™‚ You’re a funny guy, livioo, and I can’t stay mad at you…” and ends with “cheers, variance king”. πŸ™‚ Maybe it got rejected because of the link to my website I foolishly included… Nevermind – I just commented on the most childish of livioo’s statements, some of which were commented by Horse-trader as well, and I was also, like BetPreviews Thomas, wondering when and how was I unsure about my own selections…

  • In regards to showing me the door, I had already left and locked it by the end of last year, and not due to results. I knew a long long time ago I would not have been following the tips next season.

    But yes, what did get to me were the excuses and more so the decisions to stop advising bets based on random things, such as midweek, then first half of the season and then a million other criteria. Next season there will be half the bets as this season and variance is already huge on a service like this so it will only double.

    One of the worse excuses heard recently was that the weather was the reason a few results didnt go our way even though it had been raining like this for the last few months. That also got me worried in the analysis and I stated that when I posted on that weeks losses.

  • Welcome to the blog Horse-trader. I agree that all tipsters will eventually have bad seasons. Let’s try and keep all this civil.

  • Hey Livioo,
    thanks. Hindsight is great and if given the chance I would have put all my money into the AFL model and been retired by now πŸ™‚
    Sadly I need to spread the risk.
    I am not attacking skeeves record but the way I perceived he was running the service, which seemed to set him off.

  • no idea where it went, just repost it in full as who knows how temperamental this commenting platform is (it’s new).
    It probably has a spam filter for links, ill look into that.

  • Hey Dean, was saving that for when I hit $1million but Skeeve pushed a few buttons with his insult and thinking I started with more then him. It is a pretty cool story and when (not if) I reach the $1 million goal of this blog, ill send you the first copy of the book πŸ™‚

  • found the post mate, it was in the pending area because of the link, all fixed now.

  • livioo

    @Horse-trader, I’m reading your first reply then adding the 2nd and they are a beautiful reflection of each other.

  • Skeeve picks

    When I wrote: “I expect another tight game”, I meant “even game”. English isn’t my first language and there will be mistakes from time to time. I really thought “tight” is an expression that can be used for an even game, a game with two similarly strong teams.
    You’ve “missed a few winners”? What was it, +13 point profit in August 2011 when you’d decided not to bet that month and then one of the best (if not the best) weekends of the season in October when you were playing soccer, something like that? We can get the exact dates and numbers if you want to cherry-pick them – they’re all recorded with my famous fair delay (thank you for giving me credit for that at least:) and proofed by SBC. You saw what a good weekend does a few days ago – one more weekend like that and I’ll be in profit for the season – add that weekend when you’ve won the tournament to a +13 month you’ve completely ignored and there’s your difference. We’ve talked about it more than a couple of times in the last couple of years, Steve. πŸ™‚
    I have “just attacked everything without taking one moment to thing about how my clients might be feeling”? Wow! Don’t worry about my clients, Steve, most of them are great guys, long-term subscribers, even real-life friends who share their joy with me after a good day, send me constructive feedback and regularly exchange ideas about betting, services and bookmakers (did you delete all the issues of Skeeve’s Mail as well?:). Some of them have already commented on our little discussion here and they’re even smarter than me as they’re keeping their thoughts away from the public. On the other hand, a small percentage of them are less constructive and more destructive and I suppose all of them will leave the service in May and I’m absolutely fine with that. I’m not chasing as many clients as I can get – I’ve never done that.
    I knew you were going to leave the service after this season – I was being a bit theatrical, that’s simply my betting schtick. πŸ™‚ I’d go insane if I’d have to be serious with all of these peripheral aspects of running a tipster service all the time – I’m serious alright when I’m doing the actual work, which this definitely isn’t. πŸ™‚ Anyway, I’ll be a much more relaxed reader (and a guest contributor, why not) of your blog when you leave, I can tell you that. πŸ™‚ I do feel for the services you’ll resubscribe to though because they’ll definitely get their share of shit and spit when they go on the next bad run. πŸ™‚
    I’m sure you’ll make some profit with my picks in the end, despite your on/off betting in 2011 (you also have a head start for the final part of the season as you’ve missed some of the bets that failed to land – well done on that, even though it could’ve probably gone either way), so I hope we’ll go our seperate ways in peace, with no hard feelings. Unless the rain starts falling again. Then we’re screwed, man. It’s a joke! πŸ™‚
    cheers,
    the ruthless attacker of customers πŸ™‚

  • it wasn’t an even game though, a player was sent off within 10 minutes. That changes the whole dynamic of a game and that’s why I am saying it was a fluke. anyway, doesn’t matter, looks like we will never agree.

    Yes, as I said, i missed winning weeks, but again, if you have read this year, I have missed even more losing bets and not placed others that lost. Your only looking at the up side and not the down side. I have posted fairly about these missed weeks on the blog many times.

    you say “one more weekend like that and I’ll be in profit for the season” yes, that’s true, and a few more weekends like the one’s you had earlier in the season and you will be down a massive amount. I’m just trying to get you to see both sides here.

    The other services I subscribe to contribute to the conversation with well written rebuttals to my posts that help me and my readers. They use data and entertain and inform clients about why certain things are and how we can continually improve. You just saw something you didn’t like and ranted abuse my way.

    You are very very defensive in all your interactions here and attack when you have a chance to concede a few things and to be seen as partial instead of ego driven. The “ruthless attacker of customers” and the “Losing my edge… You wish, industry!” show you feel you are against everyone when I don’t see it that way.

    Anyway, like you, I have a life and a job that needs my attention so I will be moving on from this discussion.

  • Skeeve picks

    I’m not proofing those side projects, SBC are. I’m just sharing Tony’s and Harley’s niche picks with my clients and SBC members free of charge. The great thing about conclusions is that everyone gets to come to his own. πŸ™‚

  • Skeeve picks

    I give up, you just don’t get my jokes. πŸ™‚ Yes, I’m joking about some peripheral aspects of the service which don’t have anything to do with the actual work. Who cares if I write “you wish, industry!” in a comment on a blog? πŸ™‚ Those who are disgusted with my wish to focus on the actual work instead of the tone I use in a recap e-mail can simply choose not to resubscribe next year – as simple as that. I’m not against everyone, but I have to admit I do like taking money from rich corporations, so I’ve incorporated the betting industry as my nemesis into the Skeeve schtick. Anyway, I would much rather focus on the actual work and get back to ignoring the blogs and forums for the rest of the season, so let’s catch up in May. Good luck, everyone!

  • Skeeve picks

    Sorry, it wasn’t meant to be an insult, it was just that I came to that conclusion when I saw the photos of all those fancy places and the list of music shows you saw in 2013. πŸ˜€ But I’m sorry if it came off as an insult, really – that wasn’t the idea.

  • This just shows that we all come to our own conclusions and they might not always be right, as I keep saying here, they were my own thoughts about your service and these were your thoughts about my situation.
    I know how to grab a bargain, the opera was 20 euro and the rest were pretty much in one big show in Vegas for about $300 which worked out at like $20 per performer.

  • Skeeve picks

    I was actually referring to your taste in music, not the money you’ve spent on those shows, but, as I said, you don’t seem to get my jokes while I don’t seem to get your blog. Peace, yo! πŸ™‚