Dec 24th – Dec 30th -$7,958.24
I hope you all had a very Merry Christmas or other season related holiday experience. My first Christmas as a dad was pretty awesome. Lots of presents and lots and lots of food. I also received the most dad related gifts possible, socks, undies, and a whipper snipper. It also felt like Christmas for my betting bank, as the night before I hit the $400,000 profit mark. But the Betting Grinches came back hard just a few days later and on my birthday no less. I’m not sure anyone has received a worse present than a $30,000 loss on their special day. It seems a lot of you guys bought yourself the best possible gift this year, a subscription to the dailyprofit service. It’s been one hell of a year. I’ll hope to get a yearly review out and some predictions for 2015 early in the new year.
We will start a little differently this week. Firstly a bug bear of mine is when tipsters only ever mention the positives, even when losing. Last week on Twitter I mentioned a great NFL day (we went 10-2), I was also happy to post this week when we went a shocking 4-6. If you’re happy to boast about the 1 good day, then you better be ready to let people know when you’re shit, and for most of these guys posting only winning days, they have a heap more losing ones. That brings me onto Keith and last nights email. It’s safe to say he has not had the best month. These months happen, I’m 100% sure we will see 3 or 4 of them for my service next season. That’s gambling. But I really hate the emails after a loss blaming everything else. I won’t reproduce the email here as it isn’t my property, but the general sentiment was.. “Boy were we unlucky last night, our teams were much better, hit the woodwork ,fumbled, so on and blah blah it isn’t me to blame.” Now if Keith had watched the NFL game we had bet on, like I had, he would have seen we were lucky to even get close, and for the Soccer game he was referring to. Let me put up the stats and you decide which team looked more likely to win (hint: ClubGOWI members bet on the other team).
In my opinion, I would have a little more respect for tipsters if they just carried on after a loss or were honest and just said “man, we lost last night, it happens.” But I have come to accept that the ClubGowi service does not like to show anything but positive (so positive in fact, it’s unbelievable) results. Each to their own really, but as long as readers understand that this seems to be a general practice among tipsters and they really do a lot of research before joining any service. 2015 is going to really piss off a lot of tipster and be an absolute god send to punters who like to follow them, as I will be releasing a new addition to this site. For those few honest tipsters (I follow many of them), this will also shed a light on your fantastic efforts in transparency and honesty.
OK, my last rant for 2014. Boy have I had some great rants this year. Let’s start the week with Sportpunter. The NBL has been a real disappointment this year, only because last season I made $50,000 from it. This week we lost $1,450. The last week of the NFL season produced a $4,750 loss and many people (me included) might think betting the last round in any sport is silly, as motivation becomes a factor. From what I have seen over the years, the results in these final rounds are just as good as any other round in the season. NHL totals has been amazing all season long, a further $6,200 profit this week brings the season ROI to 19%. NBA lost $1,200 and this is traditionally the time of year I pack up my ball and go home for this sport. I am hoping Jonno converts to the team based model so I can continue on next year.
After my ClubGowi blast, once again I did well only placing selected bets and made $1,800. PCG lost $2,000 and I believe this is my last month following Toms service. Tom isn’t completely to blame for me quitting, but my location, the odds recording and the rather poor results (official email selections) over the last season have helped my decision. I have what I believe to be a much better model with the Sportpunter service so do not need two sets of bets on the same sports. The service is cheap and I do believe if you are based in the UK/Europe or States and can’t afford the very expensive SP service, over the long term there should be profit to be made with PCG. Not all tipping services will suit everyone, I gave this one a good go, but my own circumstances made it untenable.
This season, most of the time I have been very lucky when the odds have not rebounded on a big bet. I do not have exact figures, but I believe I have saved a small fortune. But I still hate when I miss a bet on multiple systems and the odds on the other team become value and the big bet wins. That happened this morning with Brighton. I also managed to get on a lot of bets inplay this week which went onto draw. A number of draws really hurt TFA this week and at half time, it was looking like a very profitable week. Instead the service lost $7,700 this week. Football Elite didn’t do any better losing $3,000. A big surprise was Winabobatoo, it is usually correlated with TFA, but this week it made $2,200 profit. Football Investor made $1,100. My own method of backing opposing teams when their odds are pushed out by tipsters returned another $1,100 this week and over a very small sample of 44 bets is at 30.1% ROI. It seems I should have kept my mouth shut about these as since I introduced the idea, there have been hardly any opportunities. Lesson learnt and next time when I discover a new method, I think I will keep it to myself. Silly me for being so open.
Just one final post about the Dailyprofit service. Prices will rise Jan 1st as the service is about 1/3rd the price it should be. Even more so if you are from the UK or Europe, once the $33 AUD for Sportpunter picks is converted, it’s like the cost of 3 beers per month. I have noticed some price movements on selections recently and may have to cap members. In 2015 we will keep an eye on things but it appears it will be like every nightclub these days (1 in, 1 out), unless you are a smoking hot girl.
I hope you have an awesome new years eve and have had an amazing 2014 (I know I have). Here’s to an even better 2015.
Total Loss for the week was $7,958.24
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $3,800,649.93
Profit/Loss: $39,600.38
POT: 1.04%
Bets Placed: 5543
Won: 1972
Lost: 2622
Half Payout: 45
Refunded: 904
Winning %: 42.9%
Total profit per day: $387,125.22 / 1644 = $235.47
Total Turnover: $18,143,393.30
Total ROI: 2.13%
NBL Totals $49,512.00 $(16,224.39) -32.8%
week profit/loss: -340
NBL Line $128,210.00 $20,189.74 15.7%
week profit/loss: -1111.60
NFL Totals $129,384.00 $16,521.79 12.8%
week profit/loss: -4028.11
NFL Line $65,089.00 $(142.72) -0.2%
week profit/loss: -726.56
NHL Totals $124,895.00 $23,707.19 19.0%
week profit/loss: 6224.81
NBA Totals $271,620.00 $15,174.23 5.6%
week profit/loss: -598.59
NBA H2H $174,856.00 $(4,339.62) -2.5%
week profit/loss: -627.81
ClubGowi $422,321.00 $8,544.98 2.0%
week profit/loss: 1801.06
GOWI $10,951.00 $(3,360.00) -30.7%
week profit/loss: 0
PCG $200,581.00 $(5,971.03) -3.0%
week profit/loss: -2000
Jason Kelly Golf $9,996.93 $(7,748.53) -77.5%
week profit/loss: 0
Betswot $8,498.00 $(6,743.00) -79.3%
week profit/loss: 0
FB Elite $99,011.00 $11,421.50 11.5%
week profit/loss: -3000
Football Value $30,000.00 $(8,205.00) -27.4%
week profit/loss: 0
TFA 21 $181,035.00 $(6,310.80) -3.5%
week profit/loss: -2440.50
TFA 41 $168,776.00 $(4,930.00) -2.9%
week profit/loss: -741
6-21-31 $102,857.00 $2,670.22 2.6%
week profit/loss: -1145
D1-D6 $62,500.00 $4,050.00 6.5%
week profit/loss: -3370
E1-E6 $46,440.00 $13,500.00 29.1%
week profit/loss: 0
Mike Lindley $43,000.00 $(1,289.50) -3.0%
week profit/loss: 204
WINABOBATOO $181,479.00 $(2,951.68) -1.6%
week profit/loss: 2060
FBI combo $83,500.00 $11,369.00 13.6%
week profit/loss: 3069
FBI Euro $85,000.00 $9,445.00 11.1%
week profit/loss: -1970
Odds pushed out $23,250.00 $7,008.00 30.1%
week profit/loss: 1067.50
Personal $21,875.00 $(2,958.90) -13.5%
week profit/loss: 0
Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0
Hope you have a great 2015, Steve. One and a half month since I’ve joined DP and I couldn’t be any happier with it because, besides the good/bad results, I really like the way you manage it. I’m here for the long term, no doubts about it (my only complain is the Paypal only payment method. Other methods/long term payments would be great.)
2014 was not a good year for me betting-wise, I’ve made some mistakes that I definitely plan to fix in 2015.
Good to hear Mariano. Sadly the software I use only allows Paypal as a payment method. I would like to add Skrill and Neteller and will offer year long memberships that will incorporate them soon.
It’s an ongoing education, I made so many mistakes early on.
Hi Steve
Want to back up what Mariano has said. Great service, just a bit cheesed I can’t always take advantage of the value bets.
Anyway, looking forward to 2015 with Daily Profit!
Just a word about GOWI, I was with him for 18 months and in the end stopped. It was impossible to get stated odds, even trying to place them within minutes of them arriving – he must have about 1000 subscribers!?! Also during that time (including his fees) I was well down. But his overweening arrogance was the final straw for me.
Cheers
Yeah, the Value bets wont be around for ever and accounts will get limited. But take as much while you can.
The arrogance is what gets to me, and like you said, with what I would guess is at least 500 members paying 49 euro a month, that’s 300,000 Euro a year. So he believes he is above any of the basic things like keeping fair odds. I guess he just doesn’t care anymore, just happy to take peoples money.
Even with 150 members I can start to notice odds moving, and I will figure out a way to make sure all members can get on. I have an idea that is radical but might work. But it will take many months to implement.
I could easily reach 1,000 members and make my half million a year, but I would also know that hardly any of them were doing much better than break even. This is the wild west with no rules and no one to stop people, hopefully I can change things.
Congratulations Steve, the rant on Club Gowi sums up exactly how I feel about the service. We have been in a disastrous December and he even has given 2 free extra weeks to the members due how terrible the results have been, yet on Boxing day he gets 3,5 selections right out of 4 and we see on social media a concealed brag: http://www.clubgowi.com/content/boxing-day-sample-newsletter the feeling I got as a follower when I saw that was really disgusting.
Regarding PCG, I have been with him for about a 1.5 years and I am satisfied with the service. Yes, he has been not so good on the email picks for the last 6 months but I also bet on the Basic raw number selections that are on his website and these have been doing really good. Why he decides to filter out the latter selections is really beyond me as they provide great value and a higher ROC.
Thanks Matteo, it seems I hit the nail on the head with that rant as I have received a fair number of emails just like your comment.
I believe PCG produces the email for the majority of members who (like me) are too lazy to use the raw numbers. I may have a final look at the raw numbers, maybe I can combine them with SP for an even better model. Would be interesting to see how they perform when picks overlap.
Matteo, any way to contact you privately to see how you take advantage of the raw numbers?
Your post on the Blackburn v Boro game intrigues me Steve and raises a few issues with shot based models which Pinnacle Sports often write about. Here’s the match report from the BBC site http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30566393
Now I’m a Boro fan but I wasn’t one of the 7,000 who travelled over the Pennines (a UK record this season) but I did watch the extended highlights on tv and I do believe that Keith has a point as Boro had by far the best ‘quality’ chances having the ball cleared off the line and rattling the woodwork a couple of times. Here’s a quote from the Boro manager Karanka –
“It should be three points. Again, it’s the same story when we play against Blackburn. I’ve been here for one year and we have played against them three times and three times the man of the match was the keeper. I don’t know if it’s a coincidence.
“We’ve not had a lot of chances and haven’t played much better than them but we’ve had three or four clear chances to score today.”
If I had access to the Opta stats that all the clubs use, I’m sure I could create the best ratings systems ever seen but I don’t so I will have to make do and the record will show Blackburn had a good day and Boro not so good. UTB as we say on Teesside!!
Food for thought….
Yep, but I did watch the NFL match, I agree stats can lie.. But the point was, this is not a one off. I have not once seen a tipster say “we got lucky with that one”. It is only ever bad luck. We all know that these things go both ways, if you are going to say it was bad luck when you lose a few bets, I also want to hear about the good luck with those 97th minute goals that go our way.
This is the main reason I stopped writing about results. There’s no point to it really. What’s one results in a thousand and more I will tip this season?
The discussion has highlighted an important issue that I would like to explore further one day. How much luck is involved in a system model and how much does it vary in live results. How much affect does it have on results (matches and betting) and how is the system performing compared to the model? System metrics I believe they call it.
I agree this is unacceptable marketing !
With a maths based model, there is no need at all to make comments at all. I believe as Keith uses stats and his own opinion he may feel like he has to address losses.
I think luck over time evens out to 0. No exact idea, but if you have 1000 bets a season then luck plays nothing in the end results.
sure, you can contact me on twitter @deedelek
btw, Tom has posted in his website an article about the raw numbers. I haven’t had time yet to read it myself but I believe it is taken from the SBC,
Thanks, I’m following you now. Yes, I read that article, it’s pretty good and useful to understand the Raw Numbers for MLB and NFL.
Over 1k bets luck will in fact play a major role.
Really have to come in “defense” of GOWi here. He’s probably on of the best in the world in the toughest of leagues (Premier League and NFL). I bet what I found is his best leagues and leagues where I can get on and my results have been good. And as in the Colts vs Bengals preview the other day. “I leave very little money behind on the NFL when I am this keen on a match up”.
If you’re only betting 1.75 units on a selection like that, you’re doing it wrong.
I’m not saying he isn’t good, I am still a subscriber. But I am saying he isn;t transparent at all and records results however he sees fit. If you are going to advertise a 16% ROI when not one member has come and said they can equal that, you better be able to back it up with real proof.
If he simply recorded fair odds and showed results on the site, I would have nothing but praise for the service. I’ve sent at least 50 people to his service last year after people emailed me, but I also feel I have let them down. I won’t be recommending his service again until he changes a few things (which he wont).