June 19th – June 25th +$15,871.81
A day late with this update as I was in London for the past two days. Tried to get into Wimbledon, but with a 6 hour queue I decided to enjoy a few days in the city instead. Some amazing results the past 2 days with Nadal and Federer gone. Some other big favs also lost today and I lost a small fortune.
Another brilliant 7 days bringing the yearly total to what I would call mildly acceptable. With 5 days left until the end of my 3rd year, I’m hoping for this strong finish to continue. It is so arbitrary, but I will also be hoping for a great start to year 4 as I begin a new spreadsheet each year and hate to see it in negative. I need to concentrate on the big number, which is currently $182,084.11 profit.
There was only 1 disappointment this week and that has been a disappointment all season. MLB Totals lost $4,800 and is negative for the season. Last year when I did not bet on it, it made over 9% ROI. Luckily I am also betting H2H which did not do well last season and is currently sitting at a 14.4% ROI. This week MLB H2H made another $3,400.
AFL again did brilliant for the second week in a row, H2H with $5,300 profit and the Line bets adding $4,800. These profits have been with fewer bets as the last 2 weeks have had many byes. This week is back to a full round and I’m hoping this turnaround continues.
The tournaments before Wimbledon were amazing, with $7,100 profit for the week. Favs were losing everywhere and that has continued in the 5 set games, just a shame the model isn’t picking them so well right now.
Just 5 days left in a hell of a year. The majority of it I never imaged I would get out of the hole I was in and see a profit like this, but then I am also disappointed with the final result. Looking forward to year 4 and a more balanced portfolio, one that will make $100,000 with a lot less stress. Ahh, I make myself laugh at times.
Total profit for the week was $15,871.81
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $3,903,953.91
Profit/Loss: $66,000.39
POT: 1.69%
Bets Placed: 6,051
Won: 2,487
Lost: 3,393
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 168
Winning %: 42.3%
Profit per day: $182,084.11 / 1091 = $166.89
AFL H2H – SP $77,897.00 $16,671.68 21.4%
week profit/loss: 5312.50
AFL Line – SP $430,988.00 $1,351.88 0.3%
week profit/loss: 4851
ATP – SP $517,343.00 $22,866.13 4.4%
week profit/loss: 7184.44
OTP NRL $42,500.00 $(3,116.00) -7.3%
week profit/loss: -102.75
MLB H2H $143,589.00 $20,741.74 14.4%
week profit/loss: 3405.28
MLB Totals $220,785.00 $(4,203.73) -1.9%
week profit/loss: -4778.66
You probably won’t believe this , but your blog has helped my betting to go from everyday mug punting to low roi ,high turnover ,profitable venture .Pretty much it’s the only betting blog worth reading besides sbc . Thank you for the great show and never give up !
Hey Ursel, That’s awesome news. Glad I have had an impact on your betting. I really believe a ROI between 2-5% is the best anyone can hope for. Off course some years I might get lucky and surpass that, but they will be outliers.
If you wouldn’t mind sharing any services you think are good, I would love to look into them. If I’ve managed to find a few good services then I’m sure there are others out there too.
Thanks for your kind words and good luck with your betting.
Thanks for the excellent analysis of the soccer betting it was very helpful.
I too am interested in talking about tipping services and have just got the Joe Buchdahl book on tipping called ‘How to find a black cat in a coal cellar’. As the title implies it is bloody hard to find good ones and there are a lot of poor ones out there. Interestingly he argues it is possible to hit 1-2% ROI just through diligent line shopping alone, anything under about 4% can be a result of taking a top price rather than the skill of the tipster. It’s a fantastic book and goes into a lot of statistical detail when evaluating tipping services. I consider it a ‘must have’ if you are doing this sort of thing.
My problem is once I have gone through the book and if I find a great service for obvious reasons I wouldn’t be too keen to post it in such a public place. Would you be able to create a private email address or a private forum on here?
Another question I have is this – what percentage of your betting is with Pinnacle and Betfair and how much is with the ‘others’? Again this is something you might not want to say in public, which is cool.
Well done Ursel on your success. My challenge is to change from being an emotional bettor to having a fund manager approach. I don’t think you can erase the emotion entirely but I am at the point of a big mindset change and it does feel good.
Hi Danny, thanks for the book recommendation. I’ll be downloading it for sure.
I do look for best prices and that could be what is accounting for my continued 1-2% ROI. If that’s the case and I really only have break even tipsters then I am happy with that return. My real goal is between 2-5%, so with improvements over the years I should get there.
If you (or anyone) wants to start a conversation via email then just email me at admin @ this domain name. I understand not wanting to share great tipsters on a public forum, but I have found that the more I share the more I get back. I would not off found a few great tipsters if it wasn’t for this blog. But I also understand wanting to keep something good to yourself.
In regards to total betting amount, I will go into more detail in my yearly review, but some quick stats. Pinnacle 52.5%, Betfair 17.4% are the main ones. Then for AFL it is a mix of a lot of Australian bookies. It gets harder and harder to get bets on, but it’s still possible.
That is the goal for me to, to treat this as a managed fund, and Year 4 will have a lot more of an investor approach. Emotion can never be removed, just yesterday I was royally pissed at a kick that hit the post which changed a $10,000 profit into a $6,000 loss. The swings are wild and just something you need to learn to deal with.
Thanks again for your comment
Steve
Thanks for the mail adress . I will send some intresting info regarding tipsters and service analysis to your inbox in the following days .All services are included in my portfolio or im just monitoring them before making the decisionto add or not.
I believe the fair roi of your portfolio should be around 3%.in the beginning you followed some nasty services +schoolboy mistakes.So im very positive that in coming years your portfolios mix of services from different sports will smoothen the huge swings and will push your portfolio roi to the fair level .the turnover is up to you …
3% does sound right long term to me. Like you said, early on I followed some terrible services and also made heaps of errors.
Year 4 I am looking to bet $5million. Which if I hit my target of 5% ROI, I should make $250,000. A 3% ROI will be $150,000.