June 19th – June 25th +$15,871.81

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6 Responses

  1. ursel says:

    You probably won’t believe this , but your blog has helped my betting to go from everyday mug punting to low roi ,high turnover ,profitable venture .Pretty much it’s the only betting blog worth reading besides sbc . Thank you for the great show and never give up !

  2. admin says:

    Hey Ursel, That’s awesome news. Glad I have had an impact on your betting. I really believe a ROI between 2-5% is the best anyone can hope for. Off course some years I might get lucky and surpass that, but they will be outliers.

    If you wouldn’t mind sharing any services you think are good, I would love to look into them. If I’ve managed to find a few good services then I’m sure there are others out there too.

    Thanks for your kind words and good luck with your betting.

  3. Danny says:

    Thanks for the excellent analysis of the soccer betting it was very helpful.

    I too am interested in talking about tipping services and have just got the Joe Buchdahl book on tipping called ‘How to find a black cat in a coal cellar’. As the title implies it is bloody hard to find good ones and there are a lot of poor ones out there. Interestingly he argues it is possible to hit 1-2% ROI just through diligent line shopping alone, anything under about 4% can be a result of taking a top price rather than the skill of the tipster. It’s a fantastic book and goes into a lot of statistical detail when evaluating tipping services. I consider it a ‘must have’ if you are doing this sort of thing.

    My problem is once I have gone through the book and if I find a great service for obvious reasons I wouldn’t be too keen to post it in such a public place. Would you be able to create a private email address or a private forum on here?

    Another question I have is this – what percentage of your betting is with Pinnacle and Betfair and how much is with the ‘others’? Again this is something you might not want to say in public, which is cool.

    Well done Ursel on your success. My challenge is to change from being an emotional bettor to having a fund manager approach. I don’t think you can erase the emotion entirely but I am at the point of a big mindset change and it does feel good.

  4. admin says:

    Hi Danny, thanks for the book recommendation. I’ll be downloading it for sure.

    I do look for best prices and that could be what is accounting for my continued 1-2% ROI. If that’s the case and I really only have break even tipsters then I am happy with that return. My real goal is between 2-5%, so with improvements over the years I should get there.

    If you (or anyone) wants to start a conversation via email then just email me at admin @ this domain name. I understand not wanting to share great tipsters on a public forum, but I have found that the more I share the more I get back. I would not off found a few great tipsters if it wasn’t for this blog. But I also understand wanting to keep something good to yourself.

    In regards to total betting amount, I will go into more detail in my yearly review, but some quick stats. Pinnacle 52.5%, Betfair 17.4% are the main ones. Then for AFL it is a mix of a lot of Australian bookies. It gets harder and harder to get bets on, but it’s still possible.

    That is the goal for me to, to treat this as a managed fund, and Year 4 will have a lot more of an investor approach. Emotion can never be removed, just yesterday I was royally pissed at a kick that hit the post which changed a $10,000 profit into a $6,000 loss. The swings are wild and just something you need to learn to deal with.

    Thanks again for your comment

  5. ursel says:

    Thanks for the mail adress . I will send some intresting info regarding tipsters and service analysis to your inbox in the following days .All services are included in my portfolio or im just monitoring them before making the decisionto add or not.

    I believe the fair roi of your portfolio should be around 3%.in the beginning you followed some nasty services +schoolboy mistakes.So im very positive that in coming years your portfolios mix of services from different sports will smoothen the huge swings and will push your portfolio roi to the fair level .the turnover is up to you …

  6. admin says:

    3% does sound right long term to me. Like you said, early on I followed some terrible services and also made heaps of errors.

    Year 4 I am looking to bet $5million. Which if I hit my target of 5% ROI, I should make $250,000. A 3% ROI will be $150,000.

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