July 29th – August 4th -$13,008.94

It was coming. Just like we see patterns in clouds, it also seems like we derive patterns from dates as well. It seemed that August 1st hit and everything went downhill. We all know dates are just a construct of our society and have no real relevance, yet we see it as an anchor for pattern recognition. This week was looking so much worse on Sunday afternoon. Fortunately GWS covered the line and on Monday morning I woke to a perfect MLB day to claw back a heap of the losses. So year 6’s first losing week hits.

I’ve been watching Britain at the Bookies over the last few weeks. It’s a UK doco that follows the high street bookie Corals and random punters. I’m sure most of you would find it interesting. So far both episodes have been fairly balanced. But what strikes me is that I am nothing like the punters portrayed. This week they had Steve Palmer who I have heard others talk about before (he is the golf tipster at the racing post). He came across to me as just another mug punter. He clearly has an advantage with his Golf selections yet he was betting on everything else and losing. I guess the same could be said for me with Soccer betting. I think the fact that I don’t really care about betting is very helpful for me, while it might seem I spend a heap of time betting, the reality is it takes up less than 10 minutes each day and maybe an hour on Friday and Saturday. The biggest challenge for me has always been and I’m sure always will be not wasting time watching the games I have bet on. If they followed me for a day it would be the most boring 30 minutes of television. There is nothing at all glamorous about placing bets, and updating a spreadsheet.

As 90% of the bets are on Sportpunter models right now, a losing week means it was due to Sportpunter. The AFL lost a massive $14,700 and I don’t think many bets were even close. But a model hitting 24% ROI over the last month has to come back to reality eventually. The NRL was even worse than the AFL this week going 1 from 5 and losing $4,700. Luckily the MLB profit covered those losses with an almost identical gain of $4,700.

Dailyprofit members had their first big losing week in a fair while. If they followed my advice and only bet the footy models during this period, they would have lost 9 units. If they followed all the models the loss was a more modest 4.7 units. I still wonder why more tipsters don’t celebrate a losing week, instead they go social media silent. I get more new members when reporting a losing week than when we have a great week. Maybe it’s the honesty new members like, or that they have been waiting for a losing week to hop on. Whatever it is, being honest about losing weeks seems to generate more new members. It also helps to retain members. We lost a heap of members during our poor run at the start of the year, but since than most members that stayed now can handle the ups and downs and the people who leave are maybe 1 or 2 per month. I’m sure if we have a repeat of last week a few more times this month then we will see another mass exodus.

Onto the other bets for the week and Jason Kelly lost a further $200 this week. Betting against price moves made $1,050 and my own Personal bets made $800.

Sadly the first (of many) losing weeks this year. In better news, I did once again win the Betfair VIP competition and pocket another $2,000. I’m currently in second place on the overall leader board and with another good win in the 4th test I feel I will be in an unbeatable position to take out the $15,000 top prize. This time next week I will know where I sit. So that ends a poor week, but one that was overdue.

Total Loss for the week was $13,008.94

[mc4wp_form]

Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $456,180.00
Profit/Loss: $24,681.53
POT: 5.41%
Bets Placed: 375
Won: 132
Lost: 185
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 56
Winning %: 41.6%
Total profit per day: $410,739.67 / 1861 = $220.71
Total Turnover: $22,342,212.30
Total ROI: 1.84%

AFL H2H $45,441.00 $3,835.17 8.4%
week profit/loss: -4272

AFL Line $144,429.00 $19,643.01 13.6%
week profit/loss: -10430

NRL $26,770.00 $2,967.41 11.1%
week profit/loss: -4686.94

MLB Totals $152,850.00 $2,617.27 1.7%
week profit/loss: 4687.50

Jason Kelly $2,765.00 $(2,765.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -200

Betswot $1,525.00 $(1,525.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0

Odds Pushed Out $7,500.00 $1,682.50 22.4%
week profit/loss: 1065

Personal $71,243.00 $(4,546.44) -6.4%
week profit/loss: 827.50

Mistake $1,000.00 $1,040.00 104.0%
week profit/loss: 0